FINANCE RESEARCH VOL1 NO2 MARCH 2012
OXO Market Supply and Demand Forecast &
Investment Economic Analysis
LIU Yuan1,2, XUE Hui-feng1
1.Institute of Resources and Enviromental Information Engineering, Scholl of Automation,
Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China;
2.China Petrochemical International Company Limited, Beijing 100728, China)
Abstract—This paper analyzes the actuality of the supply and
demand of OXO international market and forecasts the supply and
demand of OXO in future world; analyzes the actuality of the supply
and consumption of domestic OXO and forecasts the demand in future
domestic market while combining current OXO devices which are
being built and proposed through various forecast methods; estimates
the economic benefit of OXO device through quantitative analysis and
also analyzes the key factors that influence its economy; aiming at
current investment fever to domestic OXO development. In
conclusion, we state that the supply and demand of world OXO in next
5~10 years will further focus on Asia and it is the peak time to invest
and construct OXO devices in China in the past 3 and next 5 years with
large increase of production capacity in short term. The market
demand in China will change from “supply falls short of demand” now
to “both supply and demand are basically balanced” in about 2015, so
the high profits during 2007~2008 are hard to reappear in short term,
but there is still certain feasibility for investing OXO devices
economically.
Key wordss—n-Butyl Alcohol, 2-Ethylhexyl Alcohol, market,
Investment，Economic Analysis
I. BACKGROUND
1.1 Terminologies
S YNTHESIS, Synthesis Gas(or Syngas) means a gas mixture
that contains varying amounts of carbon monoxide (CO)
and hydrogen（H2）. The production methods include steam
reforming of natural gas or liquid hydrocarbons to produce
hydrogen, the gasification of coal,[1] biomass, and in some
types of waste-to-energy gasification facilities.
Propylene also known as Propene, is an unsaturated organic
compound having the chemical formula C3H6. It has one
Manuscript received January 69, 2012.
LIU Yuan, (1969-),Doctorate candidate, Senior Engineer. I have held
responsibility for evaluation of feasibility study report of investment project,
negotiation and executive of technology importing agreements, consulting of
strategy for entrepreneurial development, market analysis of petrochemical
products etc many years. Email: liuyuan169@126.com.
.
ISSN: 2165 8226 4
double bond, and is the second simplest member of the alkene
class of hydrocarbons, and it is also second in natural
abundance. Propylene is produced from fossil
fuels—petroleum, natural gas, and, to a much lesser extent,
coal. Propene is a byproduct of oil refining and natural gas
processing. Another important petrochemical source of
propene is propane dehydrogenation
n-Butyl alcohol or n-Butanol or Normal Butanol is a primary
alcohol with a 4-carbon structure and the molecular formula
C4H9OH. Its isomers include isobutanol, 2-butanol, and
tert-butanol. n-Butanol occurs naturally as a minor product of
the fermentation of sugars and other carbohydrates, and is
present in many foods and beverages. n-Butanol is produced
industrially from the petrochemical feedstock propylene.
Propylene is hydroformylated to butyraldehyde (oxo process)
in the presence of a rhodium-based homogeneous catalyst. The
butyraldehyde is then hydrogenated to produce n-butanol.
n-butanol is an intermediate in the production of butyl acrylate,
butyl acetate, dibutyl phthalate, dibutyl sebacate, and other
butyl esters. It is also used as a diluent/reactant in the
manufacture of urea–formaldehyde and
melamine–formaldehyde resins. The largest use of n-butanol is
as an industrial intermediate, particularly for the manufacture
of butyl acetate .
2-Ethylhexanol is a fatty alcohol, an organic compound is a
branched, eight-carbon chiral alcohol. It is produced on a
massive scale as a precursor to plasticizers, some of which are
controversial as potential endocrine disruptors. It is also
commonly used as a low volatility solvent. 2-Ethylhexanol is
produced industrially by the aldol condensation of
n-butyraldehyde, followed by hydrogenation of the resulting
hydroxyaldehyde.
OXO means process by adding synthesis gas to an olefin to
obtain an aldehyde using the hydroformylation reaction and
then hydrogenating the aldehyde to obtain the alcohol. An
intermediate step of adding two aldehydes together to obtain a
larger aldehyde (the aldol condensation reaction) can precede
the hydrogenation. Key oxo alcohols sold in commerce include
FINANCE RESEARCH VOL1 NO2 MARCH 2012 ISSN: 2165 8226 5

t n-Butanol, 2-Ethylhexanol, Isononyl alcohol, and Isodecyl 3 LG Group 265

alcohol. 4 BASF 263

1.2Introduction 5 Eastman Chemical Company 252

6 Formosa Plastics Group 190
According to SRI statistics, the world largest n-butyl alcohol
manufacturer now is BASF, the largest diversified chemical 7 Kedzierzyn Nitrogen Works 170
company in the world and being headquartered in Germany. 8 Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation 146
With the rapid downstream development of OXO in China over 9 Gazprom 131
the years, the supply of OXO falls short of demand. In the 10 Perstorp 125
recent years, the high profit margin of OXO products stimulate All others 1128
the investment enthusiasm to OXO device in domestic market. TOTAL 3330
As one of the main materials, propylene has extensive sources.
As another main material, synthesis gas has mature production
technology. The supply of propylene and synthesis gas World OXO production is comparatively centralized and the
provides material guarantee for the construction of OXO intensity of n-butyl alcohol is more obvious than that of
device. The obtaining of process technology is not exclusive, 2-ethylhexyl alcohol. The total production capacity of top 10
which offers feasibility technically. Under the combined n-butyl alcohol manufactures accounts for 77.9% of world total
influence of these factors, several sets of OXO devices are production capacity and that of top 10 2-ethylhexyl alcohol
about to be put into operation, built or planned in China now. manufactures takes up 66.1% of world total production
Combining with the development history [1] of OXO at capacity. The proportions are respectively 77.5% and 64.4% [1]
abroad especially in America and Germany, the author thinks in 2008, which presents a more centralized trend although with
that it is impossible for the chinese OXO industry to keep such small variation.
a rapid growth continuously and it is also impossible to 2.1.2 Actuality of Supply and Demand
maintain such a high profit margin on OXO products in the
long run. This paper will analyze and evaluate the construction According to SRI statistical data [3], the production capacity
of OXO device from the relation of market supply and demand, of world n-butyl alcohol is 3,568,000 tons/year, the output is
investment economic benefit and many other aspects, hoping to 2,944,000 tons/year, the operating rate is 82.5% and the
get more insights. apparent consumption is 2,944,000 tons/year in 2010. The top 3
regions with large production capacity are Asia, North America
II. ANALYSIS & FORECAST OF MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND and Western Europe, which respectively take up 38%, 31% and
18% in world total production capacity. The most important
2.1World Market consumer is Asia, whose consumption takes up about 53% of
2.1.1 Main Manufacturers world total consumption. And then there are North America
and Western Europe, whose consumption respectively takes up
According to SRI statistics, the world largest n-butyl alcohol
22% and 19%. Both production and consumption gradually
manufacturer now is BASF with the production capacity of
focus on Asia.
649kmt/y [2]. The total production capacity of top 10
According to SRI statistical data [3], the production capacity
manufacturers is 2,775kmt/y. See details in Table 2-1.
of world 2-ethylhexyl alcohol is 3,330kmt/yr, the output is
Table 2-1 Global top 10 manufacturers of n-Butyl Alcohol kmt/y
No. Company Capacity 2,869kmt/yr, the operating rate is 86.2% and the apparent
1 BASF 649 consumption is 2,869kmt/yr in 2010. The top 3 regions with
2 Dow Chemical Company 526 large production capacity are Asia, Western Europe and North
3 Oxea Group 280
4 Formosa Plastics Group 250
America, which respectively take up 51%, 17% and 12% in
5 Eastman Chemical Company 247 world total capacity. The most important consumer is located in
6 CNPC 195 Asia, whose consumption takes up about 65% of world total
7 Petronas 190
8 Sasol Limited 188
consumption. And then there are Western Europe and North
9 Sasol Limited 130 America, whose consumption respectively takes up about 11%.
10 SINOPEC 120 Both production and consumption obviously focus on Asia.
All Others 793 Western Europe and North America present stagnant or
TOTAL 3568
declining state.
The world largest 2-Ethylhexyl alcohol manufacturer now
See the supply and demand of world OXO market in 2010 in
is Sinopec with the capacity of 361kmt/y [2]. The total
Figure 2-1.
production capacity of top 10 manufacturers is 2,202kmt/y. See
details in Table 2-2.
Table 2-2 Global top 10 manufacturers of 2-Ethylhexyl alcohol kmt/y
No. Company Capacity
1 SINOPEC 360
2 Oxea Group 300
FINANCE RESEARCH VOL1 NO2 MARCH 2012 ISSN: 2165 8226 6

capacity production demand

are totally 7 manufactures that adopt this technology in
corresponding period with a production capacity of 215,000
4000
3500
tons of n-butyl alcohol per year [1] [4] [5]. See details in Table 2-4.
3000 Table 2-4 OXO Production Capacity [1] [4] [5] in China in 2010 kmt/yr
2500 n-butyl 2-ethylhexy
kmt/y

No. manufactures total

2000 alcohol l alcohol
1500 Ⅰ OXO 550 875 1425
1000 1 Sinopec Qilu Co. 50 255 305
500 2 Sinopec Yazi-BASF 100 110 210
0
n-Butyl Alcohol 2-Ethylhexyl Alcohol 3 Sinopec Yanshan Co. 20 50 70
CNPC Jilin
4 170 70 240
ChemicalCo.
5 CNPC Daqing Co. 25 55 80
Figure 2-1 Supply and Demand of World OXO Market in 2010 Shandong Lihuayi
6 85 140 225
Group
2.1.2 Forecast of Future Supply and Demand 7 Tianjin Soda Plant 80 145 225
[3] 8 Shandong Jianlan 20 50 70
According to SRI forecast , the production capacity of
biological fermentation
world n-butyl alcohol will be 4,517,000 tons/year, the output Ⅱ 215 0 215
process
will be 3,824,000 tons/year, the operating rate will be 84.7% Ⅲ Total 765 875 1640
and the consumption will be 3,824,000 tons/year in 2015. The Since biological n-butyl alcohol technology isn’t mainstream
production capacity of world n-butyl alcohol in 2020 is production flow with small device scale, low operating rate and
preliminarily predicted as 4,727,000 tons/year and the quantity extremely limited output, the products are mainly applied to
demanded is 4,233kmt. transportation fuels which won’t cause fierce competition with
The average annual growth rates of the production capacity the consumption of n-butyl alcohol in chemical field through
of n-butyl alcohol in the past 5, future 5 and future 5~10 years carbonyl synthesis method, the statistics and study in this paper
are respectively 0.6%, 4.8% and 0.9%. Its average annual don’t involve biological n-butyl alcohol except what have been
growth rates of the quantity demanded are respectively 1.4%, mentioned above.
5.4% and 2.1%; the average annual growth rates of the In the total production capacity of n-butyl alcohol in China,
production capacity of 2-ethylhexyl alcohol in corresponding Sinopec, PetroChina and local enterprises respectively take up
periods are respectively -0.9%, 3.9% and 0.7% and its average 30.9%, 35.5% and 33.6%, basically presenting a close pattern;
annual growth rates of the quantity demanded are respectively their production capacity of 2-ethylhexyl alcohol respectively
1.0%, 5.6% and 3.8%. They both show an earlier raised and take up 47.4%, 14.3% and 38.3%. Sinopec and local enterprises
then decreased state, which can be obviously seen from Figure are predominant.
2-2. Sinopec CNPC Others
n-Butyl Alcohol capacity 2-Ethylhexyl Alcohol capacity
6.0 n-Butyl Alcohol consumption 2-Ethylhexyl Alcohol consumption 500

5.0 400
kmt/yr

300
4.0
G ro w th R a te % /y r

200
3.0
100
2.0
0
1.0 n-Butyl Alcohol 2-Ethylhexyl Alcohol
0.0 capacity
2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020
-1.0 Figure 2-3 OXO Supply Pattern in China
-2.0 2.2.2 Actuality of Supply and Demand
In 2010, the product of n-butyl alcohol in China is
Figure 2-2 Forecast of the Variation Trend of World OXO Supply and
Demand Growth Rate 516kmt, net import is 620kmt, apparent consumption is
1,139kmt and the degree of self-sufficiency is 45% [6]. During
2.2 Chinese market 2000~2010, the average annual growth rate of product is 7.09%
2.2.1 Manufacture and Production Capacity and that of apparent consumption is 11.93%. See details in
At present, the mainstream technology for producing OXO Figure 2-3.
in China is carbonyl synthesis method. Till the end of 2010,
there are totally 8 manufactures that adopt this technology with
a total production capacity of 550,000 tons of n-butyl alcohol
per year [1] [4] [5] and 875,000 tons of 2-ethylhexyl alcohol per
year; and then there is biological fermentation process. There
FINANCE RESEARCH VOL1 NO2 MARCH 2012 ISSN: 2165 8226 7

product consume self-sufficiency rate Co.

Total 635 500 1135
1000 70%
900 The projects above are predicted to be successively
60%
800 constructed and put into operation before 2015. Then about
700 50%
600 40%
635kmt/yr will be increased for the production capacity of
kmt

500 n-butyl alcohol and about 500kmt/yr will be increased for the
400 30%
300 20%
production capacity of 2-ethylhexyl alcohol; the production
200
10%
capacity of n-butyl alcohol will reach about 1,185kmt/yr and
100
0 0%
that of 2-ethylhexyl alcohol will reach about 1,375kmt/yr.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 The author forecasts future domestic n-butyl alcohol demand
through specialistic forecast method, dowtream consumption
forecast method, elastic coefficient method, mathematical
Figure 2-3 Supply and Demand of n-Butyl Alcohol in China in model analytical method and several other methods. The
Recent Years quantity demanded of n-butyl alcohol in China in 2015 is
In 2010, the product of 2-ethylhexyl alcohol in China is predicted to be 1,100~1,150 kmt (SRI predicted value is
440kmt, net import is 460kmt, apparent consumption is 900kmt 1,096kmt [3], generally consistent). Compared with the
and the degree of self-sufficiency is 49% [6]. During production capacity of 1,185kmt/yr then, the supply and
2000~2010, the average annual growth rate of product is 5.61% demand are basically balanced.
and that of apparent consumption is 6.69%. See details in Through various similar market forecast methods, the
Figure 2-4. quantity demanded of 2-ethylhexyl alcohol in China in 2015 is
predicted to be 1,200~1,300 kmt (SRI predicted value is
product consume self-sufficiency rate
1,368kmt [3], generally consistent). Compared with the
1000 80% production capacity of 1,375kmt/year then, the supply and
900 70%
800
demand are basically balanced.
60%
700 From the integrated view, China OXO market will change
600 50%
from “supply falls short of demand” now to “both supply and
kmt

500 40%
400 30% demand are basically balanced” in the next 5 years. See details
300
200
20% in Table 2-6.
100 10% Table2-6 OXO Supply and demand in China during 2008～2015
0 0% kmt/yr, kmt
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Name items 2008 2009 2010 2015
capacity 365 365 550 1185
n-butyl 1100～
Figure 2-4 Supply and Demand of 2-ethylhexyl alcohol in China in demand 632 890 850
alcohol 1150
Recent Years balance -243 -490 -620 balance
capacity 540 540 875 1375
2.2.3 Forecast of Future Supply and Demand 2-ethylhexyl 1200～
demand 829 940 900
From 2006 to the first half year of 2008, under the influence alcohol 1300
balance -271 -460 -460 balance
of chemical business cycle and since national economy enters a
new and rapid growth stage, the rapid rise of downstream
Ⅲ. BENEFIT ESTIMATE AND ANALYSIS
demand is stimulated. The supply falls short of demand in
China, the profit level of OXO industry soars and the supply of 3.1 Basic Estimate Conditions
main materials is guaranteed. Due to technological availability
No matter throughout the world or in China, the technology of
and many other integrated factors, the unprecedented
Davy Company occupies the highest share. This paper selects
investment fever of Chinese investors to OXO is stimulated.
Davy carbonyl synthesis technology to make forecast. What
According to the author’s interview to the manufacturers,
needs to be mentioned is the author only selects the technology
design units, industrial association, technological licensor and
with the highest share as the basis for analysis rather than
other enterprises as well as the survey to many industry insiders
compare the merits and demerits of various technologies.
with reference to public report [4] [9] [10], it is learned that there
The scale of device is considered as 250kmt/yr which is
are many OXO projects in progress in China now. See details in
frequently constructed in China. The product solution is
Table 2-5.
Table 2-5 Estimate of Newly Increased OXO Capacity in China in
considered as the annual production of n-butyl alcohol of
2015, kmt/yr 85kmt, 2-ethylhexyl alcohol of 140 kmt and isobutyl alcohol of
No. manufactures
n-butyl 2-ethylhexyl
total 25kmt. The annual operating time is 8000h.
alcohol alcohol Public works are considered as newly built. The rate of foreign
1 CNPC Sichuan project 210 80 290
2 CNPC Daqing Co. 75 130 205 exchange is calculated as 1$= 6.4￥.
3
Sinopec Huadong A
250 150 400 To estimate while referring to the investment to similar
Co.
devices in recent years and combining with construction
4 Sinopec Huadong B 100 140 240
FINANCE RESEARCH VOL1 NO2 MARCH 2012 ISSN: 2165 8226 8

schedule and other factors, the investment to project From the data above we can see that OXO device is sensitive
construction is 1100 billion Yuan. Thereinto, 30% is to product price. If product price falls 10%, the internal rate of
self-owned fund and 70% is bank loan. The nominal interest return will fall to 7.3%.
rate of long-term loan is considered as 6.9% and that of As for the degree of sensitivity, the price of raw material
short-term loan is considered as 6.56%. Working capital is ranks the 2nd place. If the price of raw material rises 10%, the
estimated by items through detailed approach. The period for internal rate of return will fall to 10.6%. The author draws the
project construction is considered as 2 years. benefit situation of OXO device under different materials and
Based on the feature [7] [8] that about 10 years are considered product prices in Table 3-3.
as a price cycle for China chemical products, the national mean Table 3-3 shows: when the price of propylene is certain, the
price [11] of the latest complete 10-year cycle is selected as the variation of OXO price will cause benefit change; the multiple
price of main materials and products. The price of fuels and slant lines show: when both the prices of propylene and OXO
energy is confirmed through referring to BOOK AAA. The change, the benefit will change. For instance: if the price of
base rate of return is set as 13% and other parameters in propylene is 7,000 Yuan/ton, the price of n-butyl alcohol is
economic evaluation are selected according to relevant national higher than 8,000 Yuan/ton and the corresponding price of
regulations. 2-ethylhexyl alcohol is higher than 8,560 Yuan/ton, the internal
rate of return will be higher than 13%; if the price of propylene
3.2 Benefit Estimate Results
doesn’t change, the price of n-butyl alcohol is higher than 8,520
To estimate according to above conditions, the average Yuan/ton and the corresponding price of 2-ethylhexyl alcohol
annual newly increased sales revenue of newly-built OXO is higher than 9,110 Yuan/ton, the internal rate of return will be
project is 2106 billion Yuan and the average annual newly higher than 18%; if the price of propylene is 6,000 Yuan/ton,
increased after-tax profit is 177.8 billion Yuan. The after-tax the price of n-butyl alcohol is 8,290 Yuan/ton and the
financial internal rate of return of total investment (hereinafter corresponding price of 2-ethylhexyl alcohol is 8,870 Yuan/ton,
referred to as internal rate of return) is 19.27% and the payback the internal rate of return will be higher than 23%.
period of static investment is 6.64 years (including construction Table 3-3 The Impact of Material and Product Price Variation on Benefit
period). See main technical and economic indicators in Table
3-1. 2-Ethylhexyl
proplene price IRR n-Butyl Alcohol
Table 3-1 Main Technical and Economic Indicators Alcohol
No. Item Name Unit Quantity
I Total investment 10,000￥ 125630 13% 6150 6580
II Average annual sales revenue 10,000￥ 210600
4000 18% 6550 7010
III Total average annual cost 10,000￥ 179050
23% 7000 7490
IV Total average annual profit 10,000￥ 23710
VI Average annual after-tax profit 10,000￥ 17780 13% 6750 7230
VII Internal Rate of Return,(IRR) % 19.27
5000 18% 7200 7720
VIII Financial net present value after income tax 10,000￥ 41770
IX Investment payback period Year 6.64 23% 7660 8200
13% 7370 7890
The internal rate of return of this project is higher than the set 6000 18% 7860 8410
base rate of return. It shows that project economy is feasible 23% 8290 8870
under basic estimate conditions, or the investment is 13% 8000 8560
economical.
7000 18% 8520 9110
3.3 Sensitivity Analysis 23% 8970 9600
Through extending the construction period for 1 year, the 13% 8630 9240
production load decreases 10% and the construction 8000 18% 9240 9880
investment, material price and product price respectively fall
23% 9690 10370
10%. Sensitivity analysis is made for the influence on internal
rate of return. See the results in Table 3-2. 13% 9350 10010
Table 3-2 Sensitivity Analytical Statement 9000 18% 9960 10660
Variable Rate of Change Internal Rate of Return (%)
23% 10420 11150
Base condition 0 19.27
10% 17.34
Construction investment
-10% 21.52 Ⅳ. ANALYSIS OF OTHER FACTORS
Extension of 1 year
16.04
construction period 1 Year
Operating load -10% 18.11 4.1 Rhodium Catalyst
Price of raw material
10% 10.60 According to existing technology, rhodium catalyst [12] [13]
-10% 26.78
will definitely be adopted for carbonyl synthesis. Since
10% 28.85
Product price rhodium belongs to precious metal with high price, we should
-10% 7.30
FINANCE RESEARCH VOL1 NO2 MARCH 2012 ISSN: 2165 8226 9

keep close watch on its price trend while investing OXO advantages are mainly reflected that its normal and isomeric
devices. proportions can be largely improved; the consumption of
According to the data [14] of London Metal Exchange (LME), catalyst rhodium decreases and the catalyst can be regenerated
the price of rhodium changes radically during over 20 years on line. Only analyzing from technical level, the author thinks
from 1990 till now like roller coaster; while the price of gold that adopting Selector30 technology is the direction for process
fluctuates in short term but rises steadily in the long run. The development. If Selector30 technology is adopted for
highest average monthly price of rhodium is 9,745 $/ounce, the newly-built devices, investment estimate and economic
lowest value is 182 $/ounce. The price difference between the calculation should be made for whether the economy of device
highest price and the lowest price is 9,563 $/ounce. The highest and product competitiveness have certain advantages after the
price is 53.54 times of the lowest price; the highest average investors have made overall technical exchange and business
monthly price of gold is 1,771 $/ounce, the lowest value is 256 negotiation while combining with concrete project conditions.
$/ounce. The price difference between the highest price and the Meanwhile, operating habits and other factors should also be
lowest price is 1,515 $/ounce. The highest price is 6.92 times of considered, which should be confirmed after comprehensive
the lowest price. assessment.
10000 2000
rhodium gold
9000 1800
8000 1600
Ⅴ. CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS
rhodium price USD/ounce

gold price USD/ounce

7000 1400
6000 1200 5.1 Conclusion
5000 1000
4000 800 To conclude, the supply and demand of world OXO in next
3000 600 5~10 years will further focus on Asia; it is the peak time to
2000 400
1000 200
invest and construct OXO devices in China in the past 3 and
0 0 next 5 years with large increase of production capacity in short
term; the market demand in China will change from “supply
1990-1-1

1991-5-1

1992-9-1

1994-1-1

1995-5-1

1996-9-1

1998-1-1

1999-5-1

2000-9-29

2002-1-31

2003-5-30

2004-9-30

2006-1-31

2007-5-31

2008-9-30

2010-1-29

2011-5-31

falls short of demand” now to “both supply and demand are

basically balanced” in about 2015; it is predicted the fat profits
during 2007~2008 are hard to reappear in short term, but there
Figure 3-1 Price Trend Curves of Rhodium and Gold Since 1990
is still certain feasibility for investing OXO devices
For the newly-built 250,000 tons/year OXO device, the
economically; the benefit of OXO device is very sensitive to
investment to rhodium is calculated as 38,220,000 $ according
product price. If product price falls and other adverse factors
to high price and only 720,000 $ according to low price.
occur, the benefit of OXO device will fall significantly.
7,580,000 $ is needed while calculating according to the
average price in recent 3 years and 5,710,000 $ is needed while 5.2 Suggestions
calculating according to the average price in December, 2011. In view of the benefit of OXO device is very sensitive to
The analytical data above shows that rhodium must be product price, the investors should keep close watch on the
purchased at proper time to decrease investment while relation of market supply and demand as well as the variation of
investing to construct OXO devices. Meanwhile, the investors material price. During 1999~2008, the price of OXO in China
should note that the large price fluctuation of rhodium increases experienced a complete price cycle. Now it is at a relatively
uncertainty to the investment income of OXO device. high price and then it may goes into the falling period. The
4.2 Impact of New Technology investors are advised to rationally analyze their own investment
conditions and then invest prudently after evaluating following
Davy Company has developed Selector30 technology on the
integrated factors, including the supply of main material
basis of Selector10 catalyst and 5 sets of devices have been
propylene, whether to newly build gas-making device,
operated at abroad [15] [16] [17] [18] [19]. The world 1st set of
technical source, capital source, proportion of owned fund,
Selector30 device was completed and put into operation in
whether public works have dependence, the distance from
1995 in America and now 2 Dow factories are using Selector30
target market and transportation condition, investment phase
technology in America. Dammam 7 Petrochemical Co. Ltd.
etc.
adopts Selector30 technology in its factory in Al Jubail, Saudi
If it is confirmed to invest OXO plant, we should pay much
Arabia and it was put into production in 2008 with an annual
attention on the price of rhodium and purchase it at proper time.
output of 80,000 tons of n-butyl alcohol. Nan Ya Plastics
Meanwhile, in view of the commercial operation [20] of China
Corporation which belongs to Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical
Shenhua Group Baotou MTO Project is started, Shenhua
Corporation adopts Selector30 technology in the reconstruction
Ningxia Coal Industry Group MTP device has produced
and extension project at its OXO factory and it has been put
qualified products [21], which marks large-scale MTO/MTP
into production at present. Now the 5 sets of devices are
technological industrialization is basically successful. For
operating steadily.
OXO devices with propylene and synthesis gas as main
It is learned that Selector30 technology is advanced, mature
materials, OXO program is considered in MTO/MTP project
and reliable. Compared with Selector10 technology, its
with advantaged conditions. While the disadvantage lies in that
FINANCE RESEARCH VOL1 NO2 MARCH 2012 ISSN: 2165 8226 10

it is far from consumption area. For enterprises with or propose

to construct MTO/MTP devices, it is advised to study the
economic feasibility for constructing OXO devices in MTO
production base.

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[2] China Petrochemical Consulting Corporation，Petrochemical Market
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