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This overview first highlights the Consensus Forecast for a country along
L AT I N F O
CONSENS
CUS
USFOREC
with the advantages of our method, and then explains the full report in
AS T
Latin Am
erica • Fe
bruary 2
detail.
SUMMAR 017
Y
CALENDAR
ARGENTIN 3
A

We cover 127 countries with reports on the following regions:

BRAZIL 19
CHILE 21
COLOMBI 34
A

o Asia Pacific
MEXICO 48
PERU 62
VENEZUEL 76
A

o Euro area
OTHER CO 93
UNTRIES
BOLIVIA 107
ECUADOR 122

o Eastern Europe
PARAGUAY 122
URUGUA 125
Y
NOTES 131

o G7
134
140

o Latin America
PUBLICA
TION DA
TE 14 Febru
FORECASTS ary 2017
COLLECTED
INFORM 7 February
ATION AV - 13 Febru

o Middle East & North Africa

AILABLE ary 2017
NEXT EDITI Up to an
ON 14 Ma d including
rch 2017 13 Febru
ary 2017

Contrib
ARNE PO
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Chief Eco MAN
nomist
tors
ARMAND
O
o Sub-Saharan Africa
Head of CICCARELLI RIC
Da ARD TO
RICARDO Solution ta Head of RNÉ
AC s
Senior Eco EVES ANGELA
Eco
Research nomic
nomist BO
DAVID AM Senior Eco UZANIS
nomist
Economi PUDIA JEAN-PH
st ILI
MASSIMO POURCELO PPE CHRISTO
Economi BASSETTI Economi T PH
MC INNE ER
st st S
OLGA CO OLIVER RE Economi
st
Economi
SCODAN Economi YNOLDS CAROLIN
st st E GRAY
LUIS LÓPE MARLÈN Editor
E RUMP
Economi Z VIVAS Economi
st
st

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Country In Focus
Panel of Analysts & Indicator Summaries

Consensus Forecast
FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina February 2017

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product Similar to the Regional Summaries, this section
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2021 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 13-Q4 17 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in % contains data and charts related to the most important
12 9
Argentina
Individual Forecasts
ABECEB
2017
3.5
2018
3.5
economic indicators for the country. Each page covers
6
Latin America
World
Analytica Consultora
Banco de Galicia
5.0
3.5
4.0
-
one to two indicators with the layout of each page
similar to this one or the one on the subsequent page,
6

Country Indicator Forecast Charts

Banco Supervielle 3.6 4.2
3 Barclays Capital 3.4 3.0
0 BBVA Banco Francés
BMI Research
2.8
3.2
3.0
3.6
depending on the number of indicators covered
Graphical content that shows the evolution of the
0
BTG Pactual 3.2 3.2 per page.
-6 Capital Economics 1.5 3.5

macro indicator (GDP in this case) and compares it

-3
Argentina Citigroup Global Mkts 2.5 2.0
Latin America
World
Credit Suisse 2.9 2.8

with the evolution of the same indicator at a regional -12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-6
Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17
C&T Asesores
Deutsche Bank
3.5
2.7
3.8
3.1
and global level, where available. Ecolatina
Econométrica
3.0
2.4
2.4
-
3 | GDP 2017 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2018 | evolution of forecasts
EIU 2.5 3.7
6 Elypsis 3.0 3.0
8 Maximum
Maximum
Consensus Empiria Consultores 2.5 3.0
Consensus
6 Minimum
Minimum Estudio Bein & Asoc. 4.8 -
Euromonitor Int. 2.5 2.8

Evolution of Forecasts Charts 4

4 FIEL
Frontier Strategy Group
2.9
2.1
3.2
3.0 Panel of Individual Analyst Forecasts
Fundación Capital 3.1 -
2 FyEConsult 2.5 1.0

Graphical content that shows how the Consensus 2 Gabriel Rubinstein y Asoc.
Goldman Sachs
3.2
2.7
3.7
3.5
FocusEconomics has selected the most prominent
0
Forecast of the macroeconomic indicator has changed Invecq Consulting
Itaú BBA
2.5
2.7 3.0
-
economic experts to contribute to its Consensus
in the last 18 months (history of the forecasts) - these -2
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 0
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
JPMorgan
LCG
3.2
3.0
3.3
1.0
Forecast including Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, EIU,
graphs in particular also show how the maximum and M&F Consultora
Nomura
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.5
Goldman Sachs, ING, JPMorgan, Oxford Economics
5 | GDP 2017 | Panelist Distribution
the minimum forecasts of the panel of individual 50%
OJF & Asociados
Oxford Economics
3.5
2.5
2.1
3.8
and UBS, among many others.
analysts has changed in the last 18 months 40%
Santander
Société Générale
3.0
1.8
4.5
2.6
For more information on the Consensus Forecast, visit:
30%
Standard Chartered
UBS
3.0
3.0
3.6
3.0 Analyst Awards www.focus-economics.com/awards
UIA - CEU 2.0 -

20%
Summary OECD Insights Blog - Should we rely on economic
Minimum 1.5 1.0
Maximum 5.0 4.5 forecasts? The wisdom of the crowds
Median 3.0 3.2
and the Consensus Forecast
10%
Consensus 3.0 3.1
History
0%
< 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.0 > 5.0 30 days ago 3.0 3.1 http://oecdinsights.org/2017/01/16/wisdom-of-
60 days ago 3.0 3.2
90 days ago 3.2 3.3 crowds-and-consensus-forecast/
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Oct. 2016) 2.7 2.8
World Bank (Jan. 2017) 2.7 3.2
CEPAL (Dec. 2016) 2.3 -

Notes and sources

General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2021 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from
the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2018 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2017 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 25

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Country In Focus
Executive Summary FOCUSECONOMICS
Argentina
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2013-15
Population (million):
Long-Term Trends Summary Table GDP (USD bn):
GDP per capita (USD):
14,175
GDP growth (%):
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP):
This table provides a quick view of the country's most Public Debt (% of GDP):
Inflation (%):
relevant macroeconomic indicators and their Current Account (% of GDP):
External Debt (% of GDP):
performance.
Ricard Torné
Head of Economic Research
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Explore www.focus-economics.com
Argentina February 2017
Argentina
Outlook stable
 Although GDP is expected to have contracted again in Q4, there are some Executive Summary | State of Play
incipient signs of economic recovery. Stronger growth in the automotive
and food sectors is shoring up industrial activity, while recent consumer The executive summary starts with a glimpse
of the current state of economic affairs in the country,
the region overall, though the strong rebound in exports seen in November according to most recent data. It also covers any
previous year. Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne announced on 24 relevant events with a significant impact on the
2016-18 2019-21 economy.
42.7 44.1 45.6 the government’s 4.8% target. Although the government plans to reduce
605
617
13,977
748
16,395
0.8 1.2 3.2 the prospects. The 2016 target was met mostly due to the positive effect
-2.7 -4.4 -3.0 of a tax amnesty, while elections this year could encourage government
35.8
27.4
51.1
28.6
53.4
9.9
spending.
-2.0 -2.7 -3.0
Executive Summary | Outlook
25.2 33.5 33.9

regional growth. Moreover, the economic reforms implemented by Macri’s The second section contains a condensed version
administration will start to take off, buttressing business sentiment and
propelling investment. Analysts foresee the economy expanding 3.0% this of the economic outlook for the country and its risks
year, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.1% in 2018. based on the GDP growth Consensus Forecast.

expected to decline further in the coming months due to the Central Bank’s
Executive Summary | Monetary Sector
Bank has held the 35-day Lebac rate at 24.75% since early December.
The last section identifies relevant monetary
developments such as the current inflation level,
latest monetary policy decisions, relevant movements
REAL SECTOR | Drop in economic activity softens in November
in foreign exchange rates and inflation expectations
In November, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador based on the Consensus Forecast.
Mensual de Actividad Económica) dropped 1.4% year-on-year, which was an
improvement compared to October’s 4.4% decline. The print was above the
2.2% drop that markets had expected and represented the smallest decline
since March 2016.
Written Analysis
Sequential data corroborate the improvement. A month-on-month comparison
showed that economic activity rose 1.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms in
November (October: +0.5% month-on-month), which marked the strongest This section provides comprehensive written analysis
result since February 2015.
of the most relevant macroeconomic indicators.
On average, in the 12 months up to November, economic activity decreased Frequency of the data covered is quarterly,
2.0%, which was below October’s 1.6% decline and marked the worst result
since March 2015.
monthly and daily, depending on the indicator.
The coverage also includes results of monetary policy
decisions, budgets and political events.
| 21
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Region In Focus
Table of Contents

LATINFOCUS
CONSENSUSFORECAST
Latin America • February 2017
SUMMARY 3 Table of Contents
CALENDAR 19
ARGENTINA 21
Clickable bookmarks enable fast access to main
BRAZIL 34 sections of the reports.
CHILE 48
Optimization for onscreen reading leads to less
COLOMBIA 62
MEXICO 76 printing, saving costs and improving the ecological
PERU 93 impact of the publication.
VENEZUELA 107
OTHER COUNTRIES 122
BOLIVIA 122
ECUADOR 125
PARAGUAY 131
URUGUAY 134
NOTES 140

PUBLICATION DATE 14 February 2017 Transparent publication information

FORECASTS COLLECTED 7 February - 13 February 2017
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 13 February 2017
NEXT EDITION 14 March 2017 Date of publishing, information cut-off date
and date of forthcoming report leave no questions open.
Contributors
ARNE POHLMAN ARMANDO CICCARELLI RICARD TORNÉ
Chief Economist Head of Data Head of Economic
Solutions Research
RICARDO ACEVES ANGELA BOUZANIS
Senior Economist Senior Economist
DAVID AMPUDIA JEAN-PHILIPPE CHRISTOPHER
Economist POURCELOT MC INNES
Economist Economist
MASSIMO BASSETTI
Economist OLIVER REYNOLDS CAROLINE GRAY
Economist Editor
OLGA COSCODAN
Economist MARLÈNE RUMP
Economist
LUIS LÓPEZ VIVAS
Economist

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Region In Focus
Global and Regional
Snapshot
FOCUSECONOMICS Summary February 2017

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual variation in %
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
World 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.5 3.4 4.4 4.0
United States 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.6 0.1 1.3 2.3 2.3
Euro area 1.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.5

In-a-Nutshell Summary Japan

China
0.3
7.3
1.2
6.9
0.9
6.7
1.0
6.4
0.8
6.1
2.8
2.0
0.8
1.4
-0.1
2.0
0.6
2.2
0.9
2.3
Latin America 1.0 0.1 -0.7 1.6 2.5 12.9 16.1 28.2 29.1 25.0
Centam & Caribbean 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.0 3.1 3.4

In this section we provide an "in-a-nutshell" summary Chile

Mexico
1.9
2.3
2.3
2.6
1.6
2.3
2.0
1.6
2.6
2.1
4.6
4.1
4.4
2.1
2.7
3.4
3.0
5.0
3.0
3.7

of the economies surveyed in this report with Mercosur

Argentina
-0.5
-2.5
-2.3
2.5
-3.5
-2.3
0.9
3.0
2.2
3.1
19.7
38.0
27.6
26.9
50.4
41.0
49.1
21.5
42.4
14.8

comparisons of four key indicators to other major Brazil

Paraguay
0.5
4.7
-3.8
3.1
-3.5
4.0
0.6
3.6
2.2
3.7
6.4
4.2
10.7
3.1
6.3
3.9
4.7
4.3
4.6
4.4

economies and the world. Uruguay

Venezuela
3.2
-3.9
1.0
-5.7
1.0
-11.4
1.3
-3.9
2.3
-0.6
8.3
68.5
9.4
181
8.1
633
8.6
724
7.9
625
Andean Com. 3.8 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.6 5.3 4.1 3.5 3.1
These four key indicators are: Bolivia
Colombia
5.5
4.4
4.8
3.1
3.8
1.9
3.8
2.4
3.6
3.1
5.2
3.7
3.0
6.8
4.0
5.7
5.1
4.4
4.7
3.5

- GDP (economic growth) Ecuador

Peru
4.0
2.4
0.2
3.3
-2.2
3.9
0.1
3.9
0.7
4.1
3.7
3.2
3.4
4.4
1.1
3.2
1.6
2.8
2.0
2.7

- Consumer Prices (inflation) 9

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in %
30
Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %
In-a-Nutshell Graphical Comparison
- Fiscal Balance as % GDP 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018

Along with the "in-a-nutshell" data above, we provide

20

- Current Account as % GDP

6

a graphical comparison, which includes two years

of actual data and two years of forecasts.
3 10

0 0

-3 -10
World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
World -2.7 -3.2 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -2.8 -2.4 -3.2 -3.2 -3.5 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9
Euro area -2.6 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.8
Japan -6.2 -5.4 -5.8 -5.6 -5.3 0.8 3.1 3.8 3.6 3.4
China -1.8 -3.4 -3.8 -3.7 -3.7 2.6 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.0
Latin America -5.3 -6.9 -6.5 -6.4 -5.6 -2.9 -3.3 -2.2 -2.0 -2.1
Fiscal Balance Centam & Caribbean -11.0 -10.6 -10.2 -9.8 -9.2 -2.9 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.0 Current Account
Chile -1.6 -2.2 -2.9 -2.9 -2.5 -1.3 -2.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
Mexico -3.2 -3.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8
Mercosur -6.2 -9.0 -8.3 -8.0 -6.9 -3.1 -3.5 -1.8 -1.7 -1.9
Refers to the performance of government revenues Argentina
Brazil
-2.4
-6.0
-3.9
-10.2
-4.7
-8.9
-4.7
-8.7
-3.9
-7.6
-1.4
-4.2
-2.6
-3.3
-2.6
-1.3
-2.8
-1.4
-2.9
-1.7
Refers to the performance of inflows and outflows
and expenditures, relative to the size of the economy. Paraguay
Uruguay
-1.1
-3.5
-1.7
-3.6
-1.5
-3.8
-1.4
-3.3
-1.3
-3.1
0.1
-4.4
-1.0
-2.1
0.4
-1.4
-0.5
-1.6
-0.6
-2.1
(generally in USD terms) with the rest of the world,
Venezuela
Andean Com.
-12.9
-2.4
-16.6
-3.3
-16.3
-4.0
-14.9
-3.4
-13.8
-2.8
0.7
-3.9
-8.6
-5.2
-4.8
-3.6
-1.3
-3.1
-0.4
-2.8
of merchandise trade, capitals and transactions,
Bolivia
Colombia
-3.4
-2.6
-6.9
-3.1
-7.2
-4.0
-6.9
-3.4
-6.1
-2.9
0.2
-5.2
-5.8
-6.5
-7.3
-4.8
-5.6
-4.0
-4.3
-3.6
relative to the size of the economy.
Ecuador -5.3 -5.2 -5.1 -3.6 -2.7 -0.5 -2.1 0.6 0.3 0.2
Peru -0.3 -2.1 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -4.0 -4.8 -3.4 -3.0 -2.8

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

0 4

-3

-6
-2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018

-9 -4
World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America United States Euro area Japan China Latin America

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

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Region In Focus
Executive Summary FOCUSECONOMICS Summary February 2017

Summary
Regional outlook stable
REAL SECTOR | Region ends 2016 worse than expected Regional Executive Summary | State of Play
A full data breakdown shows that Latin America’s downturn last
year was deeper than expected. After having virtually stagnated in Here we provide an executive summary of the state
2015, the region’s economy is estimated to have contracted 0.7%
in 2016 due to the combined effects of lower commodity prices
of play of the region. This section generally tracks GDP
growth at a regional level, and other relevant political
heightened volatility in currency markets and severe recessions in
Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela caused by poor economic policy
and economic events.
in the past.

Latin America is one of the largest producers of commodities in

the world. As a proportion of total global production, it produces
50% of soybeans, 40% of copper and 15% of iron ore and it is
Latin America
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts not surprising that the region’s fastest growth period was during
4 3.0
the commodities boom between 2002 and 2008. After that period,
2017 2018

2 2.5
lower growth rates.

Due to the sharp drop in commodity prices, particularly after mid-

0 2.0
2014, many countries experienced a deterioration in their terms of

-2 1.5
Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec

Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, Note: GDP, evolution of 2017 and 2018 the shifting trend, with their currencies depreciating considerably
Q1 2013 - Q4 2017. forecasts during the last 18 months. against the U.S. dollar. In this environment, many countries
embarked on drastic policy adjustments, with governments
restricting public spending and central banks tightening monetary

and monetary policies caused the region’s economic growth to

In terms of individual countries, the region’s recession in 2016 was

led by Argentina and Brazil, while Venezuela’s crisis continues
to drag on the region’s growth. In Argentina, ongoing structural
reforms are helping to alleviate the pervasive macroeconomic
imbalances and microeconomic distortions that were inherited
from the policy mismanagement of the previous administration.

December 2015, but the transition has proved harsh for economic
activity.

For Brazil’s economy, 2016 marked the longest and deepest

recession in many decades and right now the government has

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |3

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Region In Focus
Regional Outlook FOCUSECONOMICS Summary February 2017

limited maneuvering room to support growth. In addition, the

country’s recession was exacerbated by a political crisis involving
corruption which paralyzed policymaking and severely affected

between 2011 and 2014 did not address many structural issues
and in fact proved counterproductive, as they contributed to a

Finally, the economic contraction in Venezuela is estimated to have

deepened in 2016 due to a free fall in oil production, shortages
of consumer and intermediate goods, and widespread price and

deterioration in social conditions. In the rest of the region and with

the exception of Ecuador, economies grew in 2016, although at a
modest pace.

OUTLOOK | Will 2017 be a turning point for the region?

2017 is expected to be a better year for Latin America, but
Regional Executive Summary | Outlook
important risks to the outlook loom on the horizon. The region is
expected to return to growth this year before GDP rises steadily
This section summarizes the region's growth prospects
from 2018 to 2021. Following a 0.7% contraction in 2016, Latin for the current and coming year analyzing the main
America’s GDP is projected to increase 1.6% this year, which
matches last month’s projection. With a 2.3 percentage-point
drivers and risks to the outlook.
upward swing from 2016 to 2017, the forecast suggests that the
region is poised to experience the largest growth turnaround this
year among the emerging markets. And yet, at 1.6% the region’s
economic growth is far from its potential of 2.5%, which means
Change in GDP Growth Forecasts that the recovery this year will be underwhelming. Moreover, it
2017 2018
could be constrained further by new risks.
Venezuela Venezuela

Argentina Chile
As the new year began, important risks began to materialize that
Change in GDP Growth Forecasts Mercosur

Brazil
Argentina

Mercosur
are casting a shadow on the region’s economic outlook. Although
Latin America Brazil
between the UK and the EU to reach an understanding about
This graph puts the forecasts into context showing the
Chile Colombia

Andean Com. Latin America

change in percentage points in the region's growth Colombia

Mexico
Andean Com.

Peru
markets and impact currencies in Latin America. Another key
downside risk to the region’s growth prospects is a faster
forecast compared to the previous month's projection. Peru Mexico monetary policy tightening in the U.S. In the United States, an
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2

will provide an extra boost to economic growth. Consequently,

Note: Change between January 2017 and February 2017 in percentage points. .
Source: LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
.
the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy faster than
previously envisaged, as the economy remains in full employment

provoking another episode of exchange rate volatility in the region.

The impact of Trump’s actions and policies on Latin America

will fall mostly on Mexico, given the deeply-integrated trade
and business cycle links between the two countries. However,
a serious disruption in trade seems unlikely, precisely because
of their high level of economic integration. The rest of Latin
America doesn’t appear to be on Trump’s radar, but there are
risks that protectionist policies could damage some of the region’s
agricultural exports to the U.S.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |4

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Region In Focus
Key Country Highlights FOCUSECONOMICS Summary February 2017

Finally, this year should be another relevant political year for Latin
America. Key elections are planned in Argentina in October, and
presidential elections are scheduled for Ecuador in February and
for Chile in November. Perhaps more importantly, this year will set
the political stage for presidential elections in Colombia, Mexico,
and Brazil in 2018.

ARGENTINA | Green shoots are starting to appear

Although GDP is expected to have contracted again in Q4, there
Region Executive Summary | Focus Countries
are some incipient signs of economic recovery. Stronger growth After the executive summary of the region's state of
in the automotive and food sectors is shoring up industrial activity,
play and outlook, the following sections contain
written analysis on some of the most important
Argentina
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts consumption has likely bottomed out. Moreover, the external
8 4

2017 2018
overall, though the strong rebound in exports seen in November economies in the region.
4
3
the previous year. Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne announced
0
of GDP, beating the government’s 4.8% target. Although the
2
-4
2017, analysts are not optimistic about the prospects. The 2016
target was met mostly due to the positive effect of a tax amnesty,
-8 1
Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec while elections this year could encourage government spending.
Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, Note: GDP, evolution of 2017 and 2018
Q1 2013 - Q4 2017. forecasts during the last 18 months.

support private consumption, while the external sector will

reforms implemented by Macri’s administration will start to take

off, buttressing business sentiment and propelling investment.
Analysts foresee the economy expanding 3.0% this year, which Link to Details on Specific Economy
is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.1% in 2018. (see
details on page 21)
These country summaries are excerpts from the
BRAZIL | Fiscal austerity measures on the cards
Economic data have picked up from rock bottom, suggesting that
individual country reports themselves. Links at the end
the battered economy is nearing a recovery phase. Industrial of each country section allow for easy access to jump
production recorded the fastest growth in over two years in
December, likely supporting a reduced fall in GDP in Q4. At the
to the specific country report for more information.
onset of 2017, signs of improvement continued to emerge, with

Brazil political front, Rodrigo Maia, an ally of President Michel Temer,

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
6 2.5
was re-elected as speaker on 2 February, improving the prospects
2017 2018

2.0 to fast-track the badly needed pension reform, which is key to

3

1.5 be rocky on the political scene, however, as Temer tries to push

0 through unpopular austerity measures and testimony from a
1.0
massive corruption scandal is released, which is expected to
-3 implicate scores of politicians.
0.5

-6 0.0
Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec easier monetary policy should jumpstart growth this year. Yet,
Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, Note: GDP, evolution of 2017 and 2018
the recovery will be meagre as austerity measures hamper
Q1 2013 - Q4 2017. forecasts during the last 18 months.
consumption. Analysts see GDP growth at 0.6% in 2017, which
is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The recovery is seen

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |5

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Region In Focus
Inflation Outlook FOCUSECONOMICS Summary February 2017

gaining speed in 2018 and GDP should increase 2.2%. (see

details on page 34)

COLOMBIA | Government begins talks with second largest

rebel group
While recent monthly data suggest that the Colombia economy
experienced a slight improvement in Q4, 2016 overall is likely to
Colombia
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
8 4.5 by the collapse in global oil prices. In November and December
2017 2018

6
4.0 digit rates. However, in Q3, industrial production growth remained

3.5
further into pessimistic territory. On 7 February, the government
4
began peace talks with Colombia’s second largest rebel group—
3.0
the National Liberation Army (ELN). The negotiations come only
2
2.5
a few months after the government secured a historic peace
agreement with the FARC. If successful, the country could put an
0 2.0
Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
were killed and millions were displaced.
Note: GDP, real annual variation in %, Note: GDP, evolution of 2017 and 2018
Q1 2012 - Q4 2016. forecasts during the last 18 months.
GDP growth is likely to accelerate this year, supported by higher

under control. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.4% in 2017,

which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, our
panel projects economic growth of 3.1%. (see details on page
62)

MEXICO | Uncertainty is driving the outlook

The economy got off to a weak start to the year, following a mild

showed that GDP increased 2.2% year-on-year in Q4 (Q3: +2.0%

Mexico yoy), causing the economy to expand 2.3% in the full year 2016.
3.0
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
4
The result is below the 2.6% GDP growth achieved in 2015

alarming, the underlying trend suggests that Mexico’s economic

2.5
3
growth is not robust enough. Recent survey-based data indicate

2.0
years in January and manufacturing PMIs continue to signal
2 weakness in the sector.
1.5

1.0
Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17
Note: GDP, real annual variation in %,
Q1 2013 - Q4 2017.
The rising uncertainty related to the unclear path that trade and
2017 2018
1 immigration policies will follow during the Trump administration
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
will continue to drive Mexico’s future economic growth. However,
Note: GDP, evolution of 2017 and 2018 domestic risks and social discontent are also rising in a year that
forecasts during the last 18 months.
will lay the ground for presidential elections in 2018. This month,
analysts cut Mexico’s 2017 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage
points to 1.6%. Next year, the panel expects GDP to expand
2.1%. (see details on page 76)

Regional Executive Summary | Inflation

divergent paths were observed across the region. In South The final section gives a summary of the evolution of
most of the relevant currencies and high food costs as a result inflation at a regional level, along with its the drivers
of adverse weather conditions. Accordingly, South American and outlook.
central banks maintained a tight monetary policy for most of 2016.

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Region In Focus
Key Indicator Data FOCUSECONOMICS Summary February 2017
Indicator Summaries

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2017 This section contains data and charts related to the
Latin America
2015
0.1
2016
-0.7
2017
1.6
2018
2.5
2019
2.7
2020
2.9
2021
3.1
Peru
Bolivia
most important economic indicators for the region
Chile
Mexico
2.3
2.6
1.6
2.3
2.0
1.6
2.6
2.1
2.7
2.3
2.9
2.5
3.0
2.7
Paraguay with each page covering to two indicators following
a similar structure to this one on GDP & GDP per capita.
Mercosur -2.3 -3.5 0.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 Argentina
Summary Table Argentina 2.5 -2.3 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 Andean Com.
Brazil -3.8 -3.5 0.6 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7
Paraguay 3.1 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0
Colombia
Chile
The rest of the pages in this section are displayed in
Uruguay 1.0 1.0 1.3 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0
The macro data in these tables contain the historical Venezuela -5.7 -11.4 -3.9 -0.6 1.0 2.3 3.6 Mexico
the following order:
Andean Com. 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 Latin America
data and forecasts allowing for a quick regional Bolivia 4.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 Uruguay Indicators of the Real Sector of the economy, followed
Colombia 3.1 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6
comparison on the specified indicator. Ecuador 0.2 -2.2 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2
Mercosur
Brazil by Monetary Sector indicators and finally External
Peru 3.3 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2

4
Ecuador
Venezuela
Sector indicators.
-6 -3 0 3 6

2 Notes and sources

Vertical Bar Chart

Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
0

This chart provides a quick view of performance of the

region, its sub-regions and key countries. Included in -2

the chart are two years of observed data and two years 2015 2016 2017 2018

of forecasts for each. -4

Latin America Andean Com. Mercosur Argentina Brazil Mexico

GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2017

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Uruguay
Latin America 8,470 7,979 8,419 8,687 9,044 9,457 9,888
Argentina
Chile 13,496 13,488 14,051 14,553 15,408 16,423 17,491
Chile
Mexico 9,493 8,390 7,821 8,116 8,600 9,182 9,769
Mercosur 9,474 8,908 9,895 10,163 10,483 10,859 11,235 Mercosur
Argentina 14,854 12,623 14,288 15,019 15,713 16,474 16,998 Brazil
Brazil
Paraguay
8,792
4,098
8,779
4,002
9,749
4,145
9,929
4,408
10,241
4,657
10,602
4,899
11,012
5,134
Latin America Horizontal Bar Chart
Mexico
Uruguay 15,808 15,647 16,872 17,402 18,879 21,187 23,415
Venezuela 6,931 4,891 5,212 5,393 5,150 4,932 4,719 Peru
Andean Com.
Bolivia
5,793
3,086
5,735
3,254
6,027
3,454
6,287
3,652
6,613
3,823
6,956
3,992
7,316
4,168
Colombia
Ecuador
This chart gives you a quick view of the expected best
Colombia
Ecuador
6,045
6,154
5,888
6,034
6,294
6,037
6,625
6,101
7,072
6,213
7,587
6,376
8,128
6,589
Andean Com. to worst economies in the current forecast year related
Peru 6,149 6,200 6,504 6,784 7,096 7,333 7,560 Venezuela
Paraguay
to the indicator.
16,000
Bolivia
2015 2016 2017 2018 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Notes and sources

12,000
Note: GDP per capita in current USD.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.

8,000

4,000
Latin America Andean Com. Mercosur Argentina Brazil Mexico

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |8

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Region In Focus
Additional
Relevant Data
FOCUSECONOMICS Summary February 2017

Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings

Sovereign Spreads (bps) Moody's S&P Fitch Ratings
January December Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ratings Outlook
Argentina 469 455 B3 Stable B- Stable B Stable
Bolivia - - Ba3 Negative BB Stable BB- Stable
Brazil 289 328 Ba2 Negative BB Negative BB Negative
Chile 150 162 Aa3 Stable AA- Negative A+ Negative
Colombia 211 227 Baa2 Stable BBB Negative BBB Negative
Ecuador 590 647 B3 Stable B Stable B Negative
Mexico 228 232 A3 Negative BBB+ Negative BBB+ Negative
Paraguay - - Ba1 Stable BB Stable BB Stable
Peru 166 175 A3 Stable BBB+ Stable BBB+ Stable
Uruguay 225 244 Baa2 Negative BBB Negative BBB- Stable
Venezuela 2,056 2,168 Caa3 Negative CCC Negative CCC -

Overview | Spread in bps Argentina Brazil Additional Content

The content in the regional summary for each report
Venezuela 2,000 1,000
EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Ecuador
Argentina

may vary.
Brazil
EMBI + Latin
1,500 750
Argentina

Brazil
1,000 500
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast report contains
additional data and charts on:
Colombia

Uruguay

- EMBI and sovereign ratings

Mexico 500 250

Peru

Chile

0 1,000 2,000 3,000

0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
- Stock market performance
- Cross exchange rate forecasts
Chile Colombia Mexico

1,000 1,000 1,000

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Chile Colombia Mexico
750 750 750

500 500 500

250 250 250

0 0 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Peru Uruguay Venezuela

1,000 1,000 4,000

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Peru Uruguay Venezuela
800
750 3,000

600
500 2,000
400

250 1,000
200

0 0 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 16

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Region In Focus
Economic Release
Calendar
FOCUSECONOMICS

Economic Release Calendar

Calendar February 2017

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event
Monitor developments with a forward-looking
14 February Brazil December Retail Sales
14 February Chile Central Bank Meeting economic data release calendar containing
15 February Colombia January Consumer Confidence (**) the release dates of the essential national
16 February
16 February
Brazil
Peru
December Economic Activity (**)
December Economic Activity
economic indicators - the so-called market movers.
17 February Brazil January Balance of Payments
17 February Chile Q4 2016 National Accounts
17 February Colombia December Industrial Production
18 February Brazil December Economic Activity (**)
21 February Argentina January Merchandise Trade
22 February Brazil Central Bank Meeting
22 February Brazil February Consumer Confidence
22 February Mexico December Economic Activity (IGAE)
22 February Mexico Q4 2016 National Accounts (by Production)
23 February Argentina January Industrial Production
23 February Argentina February Consumer Confidence
23 February Peru Q4 2016 National Accounts (**)
24 February Argentina December Economic Activity
24 February Brazil February Business Confidence
24 February Colombia Central Bank Meeting (**)
27 February Mexico January Merchandise Trade
1 March Chile February Copper Prices (**)
1 March Mexico February IMEF Manufacturing PMI
1 March Mexico February IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
1 March Mexico January Remittances
2 March Brazil March Markit Manufacturing PMI
2 March Colombia January Exports
2 March Mexico February Consumer Confidence
2 March Peru February Consumer Prices
2 March Peru February Business Confidence
3 March Uruguay February Consumer Prices
4 March Colombia February Consumer Prices
5 March Chile February Business Confidence (**)
6 March Ecuador February Consumer Prices (**)
7 March Brazil Q4 2016 National Accounts
7 March Venezuela February Car Sales (**)
8 March Brazil January Industrial Production
8 March Chile February Consumer Prices
9 March Argentina February Consumer Prices
9 March Chile February Consumer Confidence (**)
9 March Mexico February Consumer Prices
9 March Peru January Merchandise Trade
9 March Peru Central Bank Meeting
10 March Argentina February Consumer Prices
10 March Brazil February Consumer Prices

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 19

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Country In Focus
Historical Data
and Forecasts
FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina February 2017

Economic Indicators | 2012 - 2021

Annual Data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Five-Year Consensus Forecast Data
Five-Year Historical Data Real Sector
Population (million) 41.7 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1
GDP per capita (USD) 13,885 14,540 13,133 14,854 12,623 14,288 15,019 15,713 16,474 16,998
GDP (USD bn) 579 614 560 641 550 630 670 708 751 784
GDP (ARS bn) 2,638 3,348 4,579 5,854 8,127 10,596 12,849 14,916 16,842 18,580
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 21.1 26.9 36.8 27.8 38.8 30.4 21.3 16.1 12.9 10.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -1.0 2.4 -2.5 2.5 -2.3 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3
Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) -1.3 4.0 -3.9 4.0 -1.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8

Summary Table | Annual Economic Indicators

Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 1.1 3.6 -4.4 3.5 -1.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4
Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.0 5.3 2.9 6.8 1.1 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -7.1 2.3 -6.8 3.8 -4.3 7.3 7.4 6.3 5.6 4.8
The first summary table provides five years of historical Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment (% of active population, aop)
-7.8
7.2
0.0
7.1
-1.8
7.3
0.2
7.2
-4.6
8.9
3.0
8.5
2.4
8.1
2.6
7.5
2.7
7.0
2.7
6.5
data and five years of Consensus Forecast data. Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)
-2.1
34.1
-1.9
33.0
-2.4
39.6
-3.9
34.8
-4.7
49.2
-4.7
50.7
-3.9
53.3
-3.5
53.3
-3.0
53.4
-2.5
53.5

The data is broken up into three sections: Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 38.4 25.7 28.9 28.2 23.4 24.1 17.6 16.0 13.0 10.1
Inflation (BA CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 10.8 26.6 38.0 26.9 41.0 21.5 14.8 11.0 8.4 5.8
- Real Sector of the economy Inflation (BA CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 10.0 18.4 38.0 26.7 41.2 27.4 18.1 12.9 9.7 7.1
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, eop) 13.1 14.8 28.3 - - - - - - -
- Monetary Sector Lebac Rate 35 Days (%, eop)
Central Bank 30-59 Days Dep. Rate (%, eop)
12.4
12.4
15.1
17.8
26.9
19.6
33.0
27.6
24.8
18.2
19.7
17.0
14.7
11.7
12.0
10.1
10.7
9.4
9.3
9.3

- External Sector Stock Market (MERVAL variation in %)

Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop)
15.9
4.92
88.9
6.52
59.1
8.46
36.1
12.94
44.9
15.86
-
18.05
-
20.33
-
21.78
-
23.06
-
24.34
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 4.55 5.48 8.12 9.27 14.77 16.82 19.19 21.06 22.42 23.70
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.2 -2.0 -1.4 -2.6 -2.6 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -3.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.4 -12.1 -8.0 -16.8 -14.2 -17.4 -19.1 -20.3 -22.8 -25.2
Trade Balance (USD bn) 12.0 1.5 3.2 -3.0 2.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.4 -1.8
Exports (USD bn) 80.0 76.0 68.4 56.8 57.7 61.5 65.2 69.4 74.1 79.3
Imports (USD bn) 68.0 74.4 65.2 59.8 55.6 61.1 65.4 70.2 75.5 81.2
Exports (annual variation in %) -3.6 -5.0 -9.9 -17.0 1.7 6.6 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.0
Imports (annual variation in %) -8.1 9.5 -12.4 -8.4 -6.9 9.8 7.1 7.4 7.5 7.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 4.0 2.6 1.7 - - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 43.3 30.6 31.4 25.6 38.8 44.0 47.3 52.7 59.9 67.2
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.6 4.9 5.8 5.1 8.4 8.7 8.7 9.0 9.5 9.9
External Debt (USD bn) 146 141 145 171 189 206 223 241 253 266
External Debt (% of GDP) 25.1 23.1 25.8 26.6 34.4 32.8 33.3 34.0 33.7 33.9

Quarterly Data
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %)
Q3 15
3.8
Q4 15
2.6
Q1 16
0.6
Q2 16
-3.7
Q3 16
-3.8
Q4 16
-2.1
Q1 17
0.3
Q2 17
3.3
Q3 17
4.2
Q4 17
4.3 Summary Table | Quarterly Economic Indicators
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. in %) 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -1.9 -0.2 - - - - -
Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) 6.4 6.6 1.3 -1.4 -3.3 -1.8 1.7 3.7 4.6 4.5 Most country reports provide quarterly Consensus
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 5.4 2.7 2.2 -2.6 -3.1 -2.6 0.9 2.5 3.7 4.2
Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 7.8 6.0 3.9 -1.3 1.9 0.5 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.0 Forecasts for the current year and next year.
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 6.3 6.9 -1.7 -4.1 -8.3 -3.1 5.0 6.9 8.3 8.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.9 -0.4 -0.9 -5.4 -7.0 -5.1 1.3 2.9 3.6 3.8
Unemployment (% of active population) 5.9 6.8 9.3 9.3 8.5 8.6 9.3 8.8 8.3 8.2
Inflation (BA CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 24.0 26.9 35.0 47.1 43.1 41.0 32.2 23.5 23.3 21.5
Lebac Rate 35 Days (%, eop) 26.0 33.0 38.0 30.8 26.8 24.8 23.2 21.6 20.5 19.7
Central Bank 30-59 Days Dep. Rate (%, eop) 22.0 27.6 28.2 25.6 20.6 18.2 18.3 17.7 17.4 17.0
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 9.43 12.94 14.70 15.04 15.36 15.86 16.31 16.69 17.33 18.05
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 9.25 10.16 14.45 14.22 14.94 15.46 16.08 16.50 17.01 17.69
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -2.9 -4.0 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -3.2 -2.5 -2.6 -3.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.2 -4.9 -4.7 -3.1 -3.0 -3.1 -4.7 -4.0 -4.0 -5.1
Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.8 -1.7 -0.3 1.0 1.4 0.1 -0.6 1.0 0.6 -0.6
Exports (USD bn) 15.9 12.5 12.4 15.4 15.8 14.1 13.2 16.8 16.8 14.6
Imports (USD bn) 16.6 14.2 12.8 14.4 14.4 14.1 13.9 15.8 16.2 15.2

Monthly Data Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17
Economic Activity (EMAE, annual var. in %) -3.1 -2.9 -4.9 -5.7 -2.0 -3.7 -4.4 -1.4 - - Summary Table | Monthly Economic Indicators
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -5.2 -4.5 -6.4 -7.9 -5.7 -7.3 -8.0 -4.1 -2.3 -
Cons. Confidence Index (50-point threshold)
Inflation (BA CPI, mom variation in %)
43.2
6.5
42.7
4.2
42.6
3.1
45.6
2.0
42.6
0.2
43.3
1.1
46.0
2.4
43.9
1.6
44.5
1.2
44.5
1.3
Here you will find onthly indicators up to the month of
Inflation (BA CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop)
40.5
14.29
44.4
13.98
47.1
15.04
47.2
15.00
43.5
14.93
43.1
15.36
44.7
15.16
44.8
15.86
41.0
15.86
-
15.90
the previous report.
Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -
Exports (annual variation in %) -8.0 3.2 -12.6 -10.6 12.2 -2.8 -6.4 20.8 34.0 -
Imports (annual variation in %) -11.8 -2.1 -11.3 -18.0 -7.1 -15.2 -2.1 -0.4 0.2 -

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 24

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Country In Focus
Key Indicator
Overview
FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina February 2017

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2021 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 13-Q4 17 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %

12 9
Individual Forecasts 2017 2018
Argentina ABECEB 3.5 3.5
Latin America
World
Analytica Consultora 5.0 4.0
6
6 Banco de Galicia 3.5 -
Banco Supervielle 3.6 4.2
3 Barclays Capital 3.4 3.0
0 BBVA Banco Francés 2.8 3.0
0
BMI Research 3.2 3.6
BTG Pactual 3.2 3.2
-6 Capital Economics 1.5 3.5
-3
Argentina Citigroup Global Mkts 2.5 2.0
Latin America
World
Credit Suisse 2.9 2.8
-12 -6 C&T Asesores 3.5 3.8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Deutsche Bank 2.7 3.1
Ecolatina 3.0 2.4
3 | GDP 2017 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2018 | evolution of forecasts Econométrica 2.4 -
EIU 2.5 3.7
6 Elypsis 3.0 3.0
8 Maximum
Maximum
Consensus Empiria Consultores 2.5 3.0
Consensus
6 Minimum
Minimum Estudio Bein & Asoc. 4.8 -
Euromonitor Int. 2.5 2.8
4 FIEL 2.9 3.2
4 Frontier Strategy Group 2.1 3.0
Fundación Capital 3.1 -
2 FyEConsult 2.5 1.0
2 Gabriel Rubinstein y Asoc. 3.2 3.7
Goldman Sachs 2.7 3.5
0
Invecq Consulting 2.5 -
Itaú BBA 2.7 3.0
-2 JPMorgan 3.2 3.3
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 0
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec LCG 3.0 1.0
M&F Consultora
Nomura
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.5
Summary of the Contributor Data
5 | GDP 2017 | Panelist Distribution
OJF & Asociados 3.5 2.1
50%
Oxford Economics 2.5 3.8
Santander 3.0 4.5 This includes the minimum, maximum, median and
40% Société Générale 1.8 2.6
Panelist Distribution Standard Chartered 3.0 3.6 the Consensus. The Consensus is the arithmetic
UBS 3.0 3.0
30%
UIA - CEU 2.0 - mean of the individual contributor data.
Summary
This graph contains the contributor spread visualized 20%
Minimum 1.5 1.0
Maximum 5.0 4.5
in a bar chart, showing where the highest and lowest 10% Median 3.0 3.2
Consensus 3.0 3.1
concentrations of forecasts fell. 0%
History
3-Month History of the Consensus Forecast
< 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.0 > 5.0 30 days ago 3.0 3.1
60 days ago 3.0 3.2
90 days ago 3.2 3.3
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Oct. 2016) 2.7 2.8
This provides a quick view of the evolution of the
World Bank (Jan. 2017)
CEPAL (Dec. 2016)
2.7
2.3
3.2
-
forecasts in the previous 30, 60 and 90 days.

Notes and Sources Notes and sources

Look here for clarification on time periods, sources

General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2021 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from
Additional Forecasts
the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts

and definitions. based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2017 forecasts during the last 18 months.
For comparison purposes, we also include the
4 GDP, evolution of 2018 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2017 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in forecasts from governmental offices and international
institutions, however, these are not included in the
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 25 calculation of our Consensus Forecast.

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Country In Focus
Key Indicator
Overview
FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina February 2017

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
20
variation in % variation in % Argentina
Individual Forecasts 2017 2018 2017 2018 Latin America
ABECEB - - - -
10
Analytica Consultora 3.1 4.0 15.6 15.0
Banco de Galicia 3.5 - 8.7 -
Banco Supervielle - - - -
0
Barclays Capital - - 5.8 10.0
BBVA Banco Francés 2.2 2.9 9.0 7.0
BMI Research 3.9 3.0 6.0 7.0 -10
BTG Pactual 3.0 3.1 9.9 7.8
Capital Economics - - - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.3 1.8 4.4 3.7 -20
Credit Suisse 3.1 3.0 5.0 5.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
C&T Asesores 3.9 4.3 7.8 5.0
Deutsche Bank 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.0
Ecolatina
Econométrica
2.7
2.3
2.2
-
8.0
5.5
8.5
-
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst Evolution of Forecast Charts (7 & 9)
EIU
Elypsis
2.3
-
3.5
-
6.2
-
4.9
-
4
These charts show how the Consensus Forecast
Empiria Consultores
Estudio Bein & Asoc.
1.7
2.7
2.9
-
6.4
15.0
7.5
- of the macroeconomic indicator has changed
Euromonitor Int.
FIEL
-
2.4
-
3.6
-
9.4
-
7.5
3
in the last 18 months (history of the forecasts).
Frontier Strategy Group 2.5 2.8 - -
Fundación Capital 3.6 - 4.5 - These graphs in particular show how the Consensus
FyEConsult 2.9 0.9 3.5 0.2 2

Gabriel Rubinstein y Asoc. 3.1 4.2 9.1 11.0 Forecast (for this year and next) for the indicator has
changed in the last 18 months.
Goldman Sachs - - - - 2017 2018
Invecq Consulting 2.5 - - -
1
Itaú BBA - - - -
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
JPMorgan - - - -
LCG 3.6 2.0 7.0 5.0
M&F Consultora - - - -
Nomura 3.5 3.7 6.5 7.0 8 | Investment | variation in %
OJF & Asociados 3.9 2.2 4.9 9.7
40
Oxford Economics 2.0 3.5 5.6 8.3
Santander 3.1 3.8 7.7 15.5
Société Générale 1.9 2.4 3.8 4.4
20
Standard Chartered - - - -
UBS 3.4 3.0 9.0 8.5
UIA - CEU - - - -
0
Summary
Minimum 1.7 0.9 3.5 0.2
Maximum 3.9 4.3 15.6 15.5
-20
Median 3.0 3.0 6.4 7.2 Argentina
Consensus 2.9 3.0 7.3 7.4 Latin America
History -40
30 days ago 2.9 3.0 7.3 7.3 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
60 days ago 2.9 3.1 7.8 7.2
90 days ago 3.2 3.3 8.5 7.6
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

10

Notes and sources

4
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2021 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical
Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2017 2018
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2017 and 2018 forecasts during the last 18 months. 2
8 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
9

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 26

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Country In Focus
Fact Sheet FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina February 2017
Essential Reference Information at a Glance
Fact Sheet

General Data Argentina in the Region

Succinct country background information
Official name: Argentine Republic
Capital: Buenos Aires (13.0 m)
Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
with key political, demographic and geographic
Other cities: Córdoba (1.5 m)
Rosario (1.2 m) Argentina
7.1% Argentina
data complement the economic and financial data
Area (km2): 2,780,400
summaries in each country forecast and provide
12.4%
Population (million, 2016 est.): 43.6 Other
Other
20.0%
Population density (per km2, 2016): 15.7 26.5%

Population growth rate (%, 2016 est.): 1.1 you with an up to date reference source.
Life expectancy (years, 2016 est.): 77.1 Brazil Chile
4.7%
33.5%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 1.9 Peru Colombia
5.7%
Language: Spanish 5.1% Brazil
34.9%
Measures: Metric system Colombia
7.9%
Time: GMT-3 Mexico
Mexico 22.3%
19.9%

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2014)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 23.0 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 159 2006-08 2009-11 2012-14 2006-08 2009-11 2012-14
100 100
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 59.9
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 15.6 Agriculture Net Exports
80 80

Energy (2012)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,115 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,665
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 128
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 117 40 Other Industry 40
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 723
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 737 20 20 Private
Services
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 196 Consumption

0 0
Transportation (2013)
Airports: 1,138
Railways (km): 36,917
Roadways (km): 231,374
Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 11,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca

Other U.S.A. Other U.S.A.

12.9%
Political Data 13.2% 6.0% 10.4%

EU-28
President: Mauricio Macri MENA 14.5%
Other EU-28
8.3%
Last elections: 22 November 2015 Brazil
11.6%

Next elections: 2019 Exports 21.9%

Imports
Other Asia Germany
Central Bank President: Federico Sturzenegger Brazil
ex-Japan 5.2%
14.3%
17.8%
Other Asia
ex-Japan
Other 7.4%
China
Other 9.1% LatAm
11.0% China
LatAm 19.7%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 16.7%

Agency Rating Outlook

Moody’s: B3 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: B- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B Stable

Other Other
Mineral
Strengths Weaknesses 7.4%
Fuels 6.8%
15.3%

• Well educated labor force • Rapid shift in economic policy

• Rich in natural resources • Vulnerability to external shocks Manufact.
Products
Exports Imports
• Competitive exchange rate • High inflation rate Food 32.2%
55.1%

Mineral
Fuels Manufact.
5.3% Products
77.8%
.

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