Canada

Federal Voting Intentions

7th August 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of
a survey conducted between July 30th to 31st,
2019 among a sample of 2463 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is
intended to represent the voting population of
Canada.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was sponsored by iPolitics and Groupe
Capitales Médias.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials,
respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.97% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES IN DEAD HEAT: LPC 35, CPC 34, NDP 11, GREEN 11

7th August 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Liberals and the opposition Conservatives
find themselves in a virtual tie with the election campaign due to start in just over a month.

Those are the findings of a new Mainstreet Research/iPolitics/Groupe Capitales Médias poll,
which surveyed 2463 Canadians between July 30th and July 31st. The survey has a margin
of error of +/- 1.97% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The changes are minor from last month’s survey, but they point to a tighter race than was
the case in July,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The Liberals
have increased their lead in Ontario but find themselves further behind in British Columbia
and in within the margin of error of the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau has 34.5% (-0.5%
since Mainstreet’s last federal poll in July), while the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer
have 34.1% (+0.9%). The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh has 11.1% (+0.7%), while Greens with
Elizabeth May at the helm have 11.1% (+0.8%). The Bloc Quebecois has 4.4% (-0.1%) overall,
but enjoy 18.6% in Quebec. The People’s Party led by Maxime Bernier has 3.3% (-1.3%).

“As it stands, the Liberals would win a plurality of seats,” continued Maggi. “If these numbers
hold, the Liberals would pick up seats in Ontario but lose quite a few in BC and the Maritimes.”

“It would be hard to say what exactly would happen on the back of these numbers,” he
added. “It could be a very narrow majority or a very substantial minority where the Liberals
would be short of a majority by a few seats, like what happened to their Ontario cousins in
2011.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote
All Voters
for?

12.2%

1.3%
2.8% 30.4%

9.5%

All Voters
3.9%

9.6%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
30.4%

11%
1.5%
3.3%
1.2%
Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party
3.5%11.1%
Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party Another Party
34.9%
5.7% Undecided
34.5%
4.4%
3%

All Voters

11.1%
9.1%
Decided and Leaning Voters

31.6%

34.1%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois

Greens
Liberals People'
s Party
Conservatives Another
NewParty
DemocraticUndecided
Party

Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party Another Party

Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 30.4% 28.4% 32.3% 26.5% 30.1% 32% 34% 23.9% 16.2% 17.6% 37.6% 31.4% 34.7%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 30.4% 35.1% 25.7% 24.6% 32% 34.1% 31.2% 29.8% 53.4% 48.7% 26.2% 20.4% 33.3%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 9.6% 8.7% 10.5% 13.6% 9.5% 8% 6.3% 12.3% 7.3% 9.6% 11.1% 7.7% 6.1%
Bloc led by Yves-François Blanchet 3.9% 4.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.9% 5.7% - - - - 16.6% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 9.5% 7.2% 11.7% 12.9% 9.2% 8.4% 6.3% 18.5% 8.5% 6.2% 8.2% 7.1% 11.1%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 2.8% 3.9% 1.8% 3.4% 3.3% 2.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.4% 3.9% 2.8%
Another Party 1.3% 1.6% 1% 1.8% 1.6% 0.7% 1% 1.2% 2.2% 3.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8%
Undecided 12.2% 10.5% 13.9% 14% 11.1% 10.4% 13.5% 11.8% 9.7% 11.7% 13.4% 12.2% 11.1%
Unweighted Frequency 2466 1423 1043 454 627 738 647 321 211 168 747 868 151
Weighted Frequency 2466 1221 1245 686 618 679 484 336 279 161 945 576 169

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 32.7% 30% 35.3% 29% 31.8% 34% 37% 24.8% 19.6% 18.3% 40.7% 33.1% 37.1%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 32.4% 37.3% 27.7% 26.8% 34% 36.2% 33.7% 32.0% 54.7% 49.9% 28.8% 22.4% 34.7%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 10.5% 9.5% 11.5% 14.9% 10.8% 9% 6.7% 13.3% 8.1% 10.8% 11.7% 8.9% 7.6%
Bloc led by Yves-François Blanchet 4.2% 4.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 5.9% - - - - 17.9% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 10.5% 8.0% 13% 14.4% 10.2% 8.7% 8.2% 19.9% 9.4% 6.2% 9.2% 8.5% 12.6%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.2% 4.1% 2.2% 3.6% 3.7% 3.1% 2.1% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 4.2% 3.3%
Another Party 1.4% 1.8% 1% 2.0% 1.7% 0.8% 1% 1.2% 2.2% 4.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8%
Undecided 5.1% 4.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5% 4.4% 5.3% 5.5% 3.2% 7.9% 5.8% 4% 3.9%
Unweighted Frequency 2466 1423 1043 454 627 738 647 321 211 168 747 868 151
Weighted Frequency 2466 1221 1245 686 618 679 484 336 279 161 945 576 169

(decided and leaning voters)

Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 34.5% 31.4% 37.5% 30.8% 33.4% 35.7% 39.1% 26.3% 20.3% 19.9% 43.2% 34.5% 38.6%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 34.1% 39% 29.3% 28.4% 35.2% 37.9% 35.6% 33.8% 56.4% 54.1% 30.5% 23.3% 36.1%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 11.1% 10% 12.2% 15.9% 11.4% 8.9% 7.1% 14.1% 8.4% 11.7% 12.5% 9.3% 7.9%
Bloc led by Yves-François Blanchet 4.4% 5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 4.3% 6.2% - - - - 18.6% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 11.1% 8.4% 13.8% 15.2% 10.7% 9.1% 8.7% 21% 9.7% 6.7% 9.8% 8.9% 13.1%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.3% 4.3% 2.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.2% 2.2% 3.6% 2.9% 3% 2.8% 4.4% 3.5%
Another Party 1.5% 1.9% 1.1% 2.1% 1.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 2.2% 4.6% 1.2% 1% 0.9%
Unweighted Frequency 2348 1363 985 429 599 706 614 303 203 156 706 834 146
Weighted Frequency 2348 1163 1185 653 588 647 460 320 266 153 900 548 161
Full Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote
for?
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet
(only given as an option in Quebec)
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning towards? (only asked of

respondents who were undecided in previous question)
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet (only given as an option in
Quebec)
Another Party
Undecided

What is your gender?

Male
Female

What is your age group?

18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between July 30th,
2019 and July 31st, 2019, among a sample of 2463 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Canada. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Canada.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics and
Groupe Capitales Médias.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.97% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 2.6%, Females: +/- 3.03%,
18-34 age group: +/- 4.6%, 35-49 age group: +/- 3.91%, 50-64 age group: +/- 3.61%, 65+
age group: +/- 3.85%, British Columbia: +/- 5.47%, Alberta: +/- 6.75%, Prairies: +/- 7.56%,
Ontario: +/- 3.59%, Quebec: +/- 3.33%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 7.98%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.