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Transportation Research Procedia 17 (2016) 107 – 115

11th Transportation Planning and Implementation Methodologies for Developing Countries,

TPMDC 2014, 10-12 December 2014, Mumbai, India

Reliability Analysis of Horizontal Curves on Two Lane

Highways
Jesna N.M.a*, M.V.L.R. Anjaneyulub
a
Department of Civil Engineering, Ilahia College of Engineering and Technology, Ernakulam, 686673, India
b
Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Calicut, 673601, India

Abstract

Current highway geometric design practices are based on the concept of design speed and consider all the variables
as deterministic. But behaviour of road users is unpredictable and there is always an element of uncertainty in the
behaviour of drivers. It is this stochastic behaviour of different road users that necessitated the introduction of
reliability concepts into the field of highway design and analysis. In the case of highways, failure is not only
represented by crashes, but also the conditions that may force the drivers to behave differently from their original
manoeuvres. One of the reasons that force the driver to do so is the deficiency in geometric design. In this study, the
reliability analysis was carried out for single horizontal curves using the data of 118 horizontal curves in Kerala.
Analysis was done using sight distance, superelevation and extra widening as the geometric characteristics that
affects the safety of a horizontal curve. Geometric data, speed data and crash data were used for analysis. Reliability
index was calculated for each of the geometric design parameters. A safety evaluation criterion was developed for
horizontal curves with the reliability indices as a measure of reliability. EPDO was taken as the safety measure. The
threshold levels were identified from the scatter plots prepared between EPDO and reliability indices. Safety
Performance Function for horizontal curves was also developed in terms of reliability indices.
© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B. V.
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
Keywords: Reliability analysis; uncertainty; safety; horizontal curves; sight distance; superelevation; extra widening

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +919946830111; fax: +0-000-000-0000 .

E-mail address: jesnanm@gmail.com

2352-1465 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2016.11.066
108 N.M. Jesna and M.V.L.R. Anjaneyulu / Transportation Research Procedia 17 (2016) 107 – 115

1. Introduction

One of the major areas of concern in the field of transportation engineering is traffic safety. The loss of life and
money due to road traffic crashes are huge as per the statistics. Road traffic crashes was 9 th leading cause of death in
2004 and expected to be 5th leading cause of death by 2030 worldwide.

India witnessed one road traffic crash every minute and loss of life every 3.7 minutes in 2011, one of the
highest in the world. Rural highways are one of the major contributors to these crashes. As per Ministry of Road
Transport & Highways, Govt. of India statistics, about 77% of crashes are caused due to fault of driver. But the
same driver may not cause a crash under same situation all the time. This points out to the uncertainty in the
behaviour of drivers to the same situation. Also, the geometry of road will be satisfying the need of some drivers to
a great extent, while it does not satisfy the requirement of other drivers.

Reliability is defined as the ability of an item to perform a required function under stated conditions for a
stated period of time and failure is defined as the termination of the ability of a system to perform a required
function. The application of reliability theory to geometric design can allow designers to determine the probability
of non-compliance (Pnc) as well as providing a measure of safety, called reliability index (β) (Navin, 1992).
Reliability theory assumes that a variable used to calculate a design parameter does not have one value, instead the
values of that variable can range based on the probability distribution of that variable. Reliability theory accounts
probabilistic nature of design parameters. Hence, it can account the uncertainties in design parameters.

Fundamental objective of highway geometric design is to build safe roads through proper dimensioning of
various road elements. If the geometric elements of a highway are not properly designed, it will result in the failure
of the highway to perform required function. For example, a driver coming at a high speed through a tangent section
may be forced to slow down due to the deficiency in sight distance, superelevation, friction or width of carriageway.
The driver will start decelerating while approaching the limiting point. This rate of deceleration will be different for
different drivers and vehicles. Thus, there is always an element of uncertainty. Reliability analysis accounts this
uncertainty and hence it can be used as a better tool for the analysis of highways.

The aim of the study is to conduct the reliability analysis of geometrics of two lane rural highways, with the
specific objectives to conduct reliability analysis of single horizontal curves, develop safety evaluation criteria for
horizontal curves and develop Safety Performance Function incorporating reliability indices.

2. Previous studies

Reliability analysis was used in the many studies related to transportation and particularly in the field of highway
engineering. Different studies were conducted related to road safety, particularly dealing with highway geometrics.
Most of the studies in horizontal curves were done taking sight distance into consideration. Navin (1992) has
introduced the concept of reliability indices for geometric design in his work. He outlined a method to estimate the
margin of safety and reliability index for isolated highway components. He used stopping sight distance as the
geometric characteristic to demonstrate this concept.

Richl and Sayed (2006) evaluated the safety risk of narrow medians using reliability analysis. They
conducted reliability analysis on a series of horizontal curves with varying horizontal sight distance restrictions and
the probability of being unable to stop within the available sight distance was calculated. The probability of
noncompliance found in this analysis is the probability that a vehicle-driver combination will be unable to stop in
the available sight distance. This is not equal to the probability that a collision will occur.

A study on risk based design of horizontal curves with restricted sight distance was done by Ibrahim and
Sayed (2011). In this study, for analysis of horizontal curves, sight distance was the geometric characteristic
considered. Three Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) relating the probability of non-compliance to total, severe
and property damage only collisions were developed. The three SPFs provided good fit to the data and showed that
 N.M. Jesna and M.V.L.R. Anjaneyulu / Transportation Research Procedia 17 (2016) 107 – 115 109

predicted collisions have a statistically significant positive relationship with Pnc. Thus, low Pnc values are associated
with lower collisions as expected.

You et.al (2012) conducted reliability based analysis of horizontal curves. In this paper the failure modes of
vehicle skidding and rollover were taken into account for formulating the performance functions of cars and trucks
respectively. A comparative study of three different performance functions for calculating probability of vehicle
failure modes was conducted. Here radius was taken as the geometric characteristic for formulating performance
function.

Oh and Mun (2012) proposed a means of evaluating risky expressway segments by combining the design speed,
observed speed, and their variations. A reliability index model was introduced for this purpose. The design speed
and observed speed were used as the input capacity and demand, respectively, in the reliability index.

3. Reliability theory

The basic reliability problem is a component problem with two random variables, supply and demand. The basic
elements of reliability analysis are an N-dimensional vector of input variables X= X1, X2, X3, ..... Xn and limit state
function or performance function G(X). The outcomes of the reliability analysis are the reliability index, β and the
probability of non-compliance, Pnc. Performance function is formulated as the difference between supply and
demand. The performance function G is constructed such that it yields positive outputs when the system
performance is acceptable or safe, and yields negative values for unfavourable system performance.

The performance function is conventionally written as:

G=S–D (1)

where
G = Performance function (limit state function),
S = Supply,
D = Demand.

In highway geometric design, supply is related to design requirements or what is available in the field and
demand is the driver or vehicle requirements.

The reliability of a system is represented in terms of a reliability index β, a unit less parameter which is
directly proportional to the safety level. The reliability index β can be calculated from margin of safety and
variances of supply and demand.

Margin of safety, M=E(S)-E(D) (2)

M
Reliability index, E (3)
where var( S )  var( D)

E(S) = Expected value of supply

E(D) = Expected value of demand
var(S) = Variance of supply
var(D) = Variance of demand

The probability of non-compliance is an estimate of the chance that an engineering system fails to perform
its stated purpose under anticipated operational conditions. Fig 1 shows the concept of non-compliance. It occurs
when demand is greater than supply. The probability of non-compliance can be calculated as follows:
110 N.M. Jesna and M.V.L.R. Anjaneyulu / Transportation Research Procedia 17 (2016) 107 – 115

Pnc=φ(-β) (4)

where
Pnc = Probability of non-compliance
Φ() = Standard normal probability distribution function
β = Reliability index
Reliability (R) of a system can be found as:
R=1-Pnc

Fig. 1. Non-compliance

4. Data description

The dataset comprises speed data, geometric data and crash data of 118 horizontal curves. Speed of different types
of vehicles was collected using spot speed study. Geometric data include carriageway width at tangent, carriage way
width at mid-curve, radius of curve, curve length, sight distance, and superelevation. Crash data were also collected
for these stretches from police records. Crashes were classified as non-grievous, grievous and fatal. These were
converted to EPDO (Equivalent Property Damage Only accidents). In this study, operating speed of the vehicles was
taken as the stochastic variable, while others are considered deterministic. The data was checked for normal
distribution. Chi-square statistic was used to check goodness of fit. From the results it was observed that speed
follows normal distribution.

5. Reliability analysis of horizontal curves

5.1 Analysis based on sight distance

Visibility is an important requirement for the safety of travel on highways. For this, it is necessary that the length of
a highway ahead that is visible to a driver should be adequate to recognize an object in the driver’s path and stop
before hitting this object, so that drivers have enough time and distance to control their vehicles. The performance
function (G) is formulated as the difference between available sight distance (SD S), which is the supply and safe
stopping sight distance (SDD) which is taken as demand. Hence, performance function or limit state function is
given by

G=SDS-SDD (5)
 N.M. Jesna and M.V.L.R. Anjaneyulu / Transportation Research Procedia 17 (2016) 107 – 115 111

Available sight distance is equal to the distance along the highway within which the driver is able to
perceive the existence of an unexpected object, of a specific height, lying ahead. Available sight distance is
measured as the minimum distance between two points, one 1.2m above the carriageway which stands for driver’s
eye and the other 0.15m height representing the object. Stopping sight distance is the clear distance ahead needed by
a driver to stop his vehicle before meeting a stationary object in his path on the road or it is the distance traversed by
the vehicle, from the instant the driver sights an object necessitating a stop, to the instant the vehicle is fully
immobilized. Stopping sight distance is taken as the sum of the distance travelled during perception and brake
reaction time and the distance travelled during the time brakes are under application till the vehicle comes to a stop.

As per IRC66 1976, the safe stopping sight distance can be calculated as:

௏మ
ܵ‫ܦ‬஽ ൌ ͲǤʹ͹ͺ ‫ ݐ כ ܸ כ‬൅ (6)
ଶହସ௙
where
V = speed in kmph
t = the perception and reaction time in seconds, and
f = coefficient of longitudinal friction between vehicle tyres and road pavement. Coefficient of longitudinal friction
is assumed as 0.35.

5.2. Analysis based on superelevation

Superelevation is very important in case of horizontal curves from safety point of view, since it prevents overturning
or skidding of vehicle. Hence, it is necessary to provide required superelevation to ensure safety. Performance
function (G) is formulated as the difference between available superelevation at a curve (eS), which is the supply and
superelevation required (eD) for safely negotiating the curve, which is taken as demand.
G=eS-eD (7)

Available Superelevation is taken as the ratio of difference between levels of outer edge and inner edge to
the carriageway width. Superelevation required on horizontal curve can be calculated from the following formula:

௏మ
݁஽ ൌ (8)
ଶଶହோ

where
eD = Rate of superelevation,
V = Speed in kmph, and
R = Radius in meters.

5.3. Analysis based on extra widening

When vehicles negotiate a curve, the rear wheels generally do not follow the same track as that of the front wheels.
So it is necessary to widen the carriageway at horizontal curves to provide safe passage of vehicles. Performance
function is formulated as the difference between available extra widening (EWS) which is taken as supply and
required extra widening (EWD) which is taken as demand. When available extra widening is less than the required
extra widening, then non-compliance occurs. Performance function (G) can be written as:

G=EWS-EWD (9)

Available extra widening is as the difference between carriageway width at tangent and carriageway width at mid
curve. As per IRC 38-1988, required extra widening is calculated as follows:

௡௟ మ ௏
ܹ௘ ൌ ൅ (10)
ଶோ ଽǤହξோ
112 N.M. Jesna and M.V.L.R. Anjaneyulu / Transportation Research Procedia 17 (2016) 107 – 115

where
n = number of lanes;
l = wheel base (m);
V = speed (kmph);
R = radius (m).

Here n is taken as 2 since two-lane roads are considered. The value of l varies depending on type of
vehicle.

6. Development of criteria for safety evaluation of horizontal curves

Safety evaluation criterion was developed for horizontal curves with the reliability indices as a measure of
reliability, while EPDO was taken as the safety measure. The threshold levels for developing the same were
identified from the scatter plots prepared between EPDO and reliability indices. From the scatter plots prepared, the
best group of clusters was identified by conducting ANOVA test. The classification that gave the highest variance
between the groups and the lowest variance within group was selected for development of the criterion. This
procedure was done for each index separately. The procedure was also tried with the exponential of standardized
value of reliability index (exp(Z(β))) as the reliability measure, so that the negative sign of reliability indices can be
removed.

7. Development of safety performance functions for horizontal curves

Reliability indices can be used as a measure of safety, hence can be related to EPDO. Safety performance function
was developed between EPDO and reliability indices. Various regression models were developed for horizontal
curves incorporating reliability indices using statistical analysis software. The model with best R 2 value and least
Root Mean Square Error, (RMSE) was selected as the best model.

8. Results and discussions

8.1. Reliability analysis of horizontal curves

Speed, considered as the stochastic variable, was found to follow normal distribution. Hence E(S), E(D), var(S) and
var(D) for sight distance, superelevation and extra widening are found out separately based on equations for normal
distribution. Reliability indices, probability of non-compliance and reliability values are found out for all classes of
vehicles, for each of the geometric factors considered. Reliability index based on sight distance (βSSD), reliability
index based on superelevation (βe) and reliability index based on extra widening (βEW) are found out using the basic
equations of reliability theory. In case of sight distance and superelevation, car is identified as the critical category,
while truck is the critical category for extra widening. Variation of reliability index with respect to various
geometric parameters of horizontal is shown in Fig. 2 to 7.

It is observed that the reliability index based on stopping sight distance increases with radius and curve
length, while it decreases with deflection angle. Reliability index for superelevation increases with curve length and
has an inverse relationship with degree of curvature. Reliability index for extra widening has shown an inverse
relationship with deflection angle.
 N.M. Jesna and M.V.L.R. Anjaneyulu / Transportation Research Procedia 17 (2016) 107 – 115 113

10 10
8 8

Reliability index, βSSD

Reliability index, βSSD

6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 500 1000 1500 0 100 200 300 400
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6
Radius, m Length of curve, m

Fig. 2. Scatter plot between reliability index (β SSD) and radius Fig. 3. Scatter plot between reliability index (βSSD) and curve length

10 15
8
10

Reliability index, βe
6
Reliability index, βSSD

4 5
2
0 0
0 100 200 300 400
-2 0 20 40 60 80 100
-5
-4
-6 -10
Deflection angle, deg Length of curve, m

Fig. 4. reliability index (βSSD) Vs deflection angle Fig. 5. Reliability index (βe) Vs length of curve

40
15
20
10
Reliability index, βEW
Reliability index, βe

0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
5 -20

0 -40
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
-60
-5
-80
-10
Degree of curvature, deg -100
Deflection angle, deg

Fig. 6. Reliability index (βe) Vs degree of curvature Fig. 7. Reliability index (βEW) Vs deflection angle

8.2. Safety evaluation criteria for horizontal curves

Safety evaluation criteria developed for horizontal curves based on reliability indices and exponential of
standardised value of reliability indices are given in Table 1. Based on these criteria, the curves can be classified
into different safety levels as safe, fairly safe and not safe.
114 N.M. Jesna and M.V.L.R. Anjaneyulu / Transportation Research Procedia 17 (2016) 107 – 115

Table 1. Safety evaluation criteria for horizontal curves

Exponential of standardized value of

Reliability index
reliability index
Parameter
Criteria Level of safety Criteria Level of safety

βSSD ≥ 1 Safe exp(Z(βSSD)) ≥ 1.6 Safe

Sight distance -1≤ βSSD <1 Fairly safe 0.6≤ exp(Z(βSSD)) < 1.6 Fairly safe
βSSD <-1 Not safe exp(Z(βSSD)) < 0.6 Not safe
βe ≥ -1.5 Safe exp(Z(βe)) ≥ 1.2 Safe
Superelevation -2.5≤ βe <-1.5 Fairly safe 0.5≤ exp(Z(βe)) < 1.2 Fairly safe
βe <-2.5 Not safe exp(Z(βe)) < 0.5 Not safe
βEW ≥ -5 Safe exp(Z(βEW )) ≥ 1.3 Safe
Extra widening -25≤ βEW <-5 Fairly safe 0.7≤exp(Z(βEW))< 1.3 Fairly safe
βEW < -25 Not safe exp(Z(βEW))< 0.7 Not safe

8.3. Safety performance function for horizontal curves

From a number of models tried for number of crashes (EPDO) in terms of different combinations of reliability
indices, the best model, with R2 = 0.426 and RMSE = 7.7067, is given below.

ࡱࡼࡰࡻ ൌ ૟Ǥ ૛ૢ૙ ‫ࢋ כ‬ሺି૙Ǥ૚૚૙ሻࢼࡿࡿࡰ ‫ࢋ כ‬ሺି૙Ǥ૚૚૟ሻࢼࢋ ‫ࢋ כ‬ሺି૙Ǥ૙૜૛ሻࢼࡱࢃ (11)

As per the obtained model, the coefficient for reliability indices of sight distance, superelevation and extra
widening has negative signs. It is logical since it implies that the value of EPDO decreases with increase in these
reliability values. It is also observed that the absolute value of coefficient is higher for superelevation followed by
sight distance and extra widening. Hence, according to this model, reliability index based on superelevation (β e) is
having more influence on safety of horizontal curves compared to βSSD and βEW.
9. Conclusions
This paper presented a stochastic method based on reliability theory for the analysis of horizontal curves. It was
observed that apart from sight distance, superelevation and extra widening can also be used for the analysis of
horizontal curves. Reliability index, which is obtained as a result of the analysis, can be used as a measure of safety.
Results show that higher reliability indices represent curves which are safer than those with lower value of reliability
indices.
The safety evaluation criteria developed is also based on the observation that the reliability index values are
directly related to safety. The criterion developed can be used to classify the curves as safe, fairly safe and not safe.
It can be used to classify the existing curves, as well as to check the safety of curves to be set out. Since uncertainty
is also considered taking the speed as stochastic variable, this safety evaluation criterion will be more reliable than
those that do not take into account the uncertainty.
The Safety Performance Function (SPF) is developed incorporating reliability indices into the model
equation, hence the stochastic nature of the road user can be taken into account. The safety performance function
developed gives a lower EPDO value for higher values of reliability indices. This implies that the curves with high
reliability indices are safer than those with low values.
From the above observations, it is clear that, reliability analysis gives better results than the conventional
 N.M. Jesna and M.V.L.R. Anjaneyulu / Transportation Research Procedia 17 (2016) 107 – 115 115

methods for analysis. It is more dependable for analysing an engineering system and can depict the suitability of a
system under different conditions. The accuracy of results can be improved by including more variables that depict
real life problems more precisely.

References

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risk measures”, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 43, 2153-2159.
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Road Congress, New Delhi, India.
3. IRC: 66-1976. (1998). Recommended practice for sight distance on rural highways, The Indian Road Congress,
New Delhi, India.
4. IRC: 73-1980. (2000). Geometric design standards for rural (non-urban) highways, The Indian Road Congress,
New Delhi, India.
5. Navin, P.D. (1992). “Reliability indices for road geometric design”, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 19,
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