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- ABOUT BASIC INCOME STUDIES
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- Risk Management Assignment Draft Revised

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1. Concept of Investment

The term ‘Investment’ refers to the commitment of funds made with the expectation of

generating future benefits.

There must be some expectation of earning future benefits (cash or non-cash). The

benefits are known as returns.

2. Different Types of Assets for Investments

The assets for the purpose of investments can broadly be classified into two groups, namely,

Financial Assets and Real Assets.

Contribution to Public Provident Fund

Contribution to NPS

Bank Deposits (including SB A/C, Fixed Deposits and Recurring Deposits)

Corporate Bonds and Deposits (including Non-Convertible Bonds)

Treasury Bills (preferably by banks)

Equity shares (directly from companies through IPO and FPOs or from Stock Market

through de-mat account).

Preference shares

Mutual Fund Schemes

Derivatives

Real estates

Precious metals like gold, silver platinum and precious stones like diamond, ruby etc.

Among the two financial assets are often preferred over real assets because they are more

liquid (can be easily sold) and requires low minimum investment.

3. Concept of Portfolio

1

The dictionary meaning of the term portfolio is a large, thin, flat case for loose sheets of

paper such as drawings or maps. However, in finance literature, the term ‘portfolio’ refers to

a collection of different investment in financial assets or in real assets. Portfolios are held

directly by investors and/or managed by financial professionals and money managers.

Investing in a single asset is never advisable as it would increase the risk of adverse

performance or limit the returns to a moderate level. Thus, allocating the total investible

funds to different assets is always a better idea. When allocated, the collection of different

investment assets is called portfolio.

Portfolio management is the art and science of making decisions about investment mix and

policy, matching investments to objectives, asset allocation for individuals and institutions,

and balancing risk against performance. In other words, it is the art of selecting the right

investment tools in the right proportion to generate optimum returns from the investment and/

or to minimise the returns.

Portfolio management involves the following steps.

to identify the objectives (income, capital appreciation, minimisation of risk etc.) and

constraints of the investors (fund constraints or other technical difficulties such as not

having a de-mat account etc.)

b) Selection of the asset mix: The next major step in portfolio management process is

identifying different assets that can be included in portfolio in order to spread risk and

minimize loss.

c) Formulation of portfolio strategy: The next step in the portfolio management process is

formulation of an appropriate portfolio strategy. There are two choices for the

formulation of portfolio strategy, namely, an active portfolio strategy; and a passive

portfolio strategy. In case of an active portfolio strategy.

d) Security analysis: In this step various individual securities or assets are analysed to

explore their possible return and risk. The analysis should involve economic analysis,

industry analysis and lastly company analysis (this process is known as fundamental

2

analysis) for a long-term value investment objective or analysing the past trend in

securities prices in stock market (known as technical analysis).

e) Portfolio execution: In this step actual investment is executed in the selected securities

after all the necessary formalities. The amount of investment is decided based in the

overall plan or objectives of the investor.

f) Portfolio evaluation: In this step, the investor or the financial planner evaluates the

performance of the portfolio by various portfolio performance evaluation tools ranging

from total return to risk adjusted returns, tracking error etc. and thereby identifies the

requirement of any revision in the portfolio in order to better cope up with the economic

scenario or to achieve the short and long term objectives.

g) Portfolio revision: This involves selling out an existing investment and investing the

money realised in another channel or instruments. However, it may sometime also

involve changing the mix of existing constituents in the portfolio already constructed.

The major objectives of portfolio management are:

b) Consistency of returns

c) Security of the principal amount

d) Capital growth

e) Liquidity or marketability of investments

f) Favorable tax consideration

7. Return and Risk

While evaluating the performance of any portfolio, the two considerations that play the most

important role are return and risk.

Return is the compensation an investor receives from any investment for the uncertainty

involved in such investment and for the deferment of his current consumption. It is the

principal reward from the investment.

Return on any investment comprises of two components namely, income component and

capital gain (or appreciation) component. While income component represents the periodic

payouts of an investment (preferably in cash), capital appreciation component represents the

3

increase in the value of the initial investment. Investments such as bank deposits offer only

the income component while any market linked instruments (such as shares, bonds traded in

the market and mutual funds) offer both return as well as capital appreciation. Thus, total

return of a security is the sum of income component and capital appreciation.

Return from an investment can be either Ex-post Return or Ex-ante Return.

7.2.1. Ex-post Return

Ex-post return, also called realized return, refers to the return that has been earned or realized.

Thus, it is historical in nature.

Ex-post return for a given period is also known as holding period return (HPR).

The above formula is for Single Period Ex-Post Return. For multi period investments, an

investor can calculate either Total Return or Average Return. Average Return can be

calculated using either simple average (arithmetic mean) or geometric average (geometric

mean).

An ‘n’ year multi period total return or holding period return = [(1+R1) (1+R2)…..(1+Rn)] –

1.

periods.

In case single period ex-post returns are negative, the Arithmetic Average Return produces

somewhat misleading results. This is why Geometric Mean Return is preferred. It is

calculated as follows:

1/n

Geometric Mean Return = [(1+R1) (1+R2)…..(1+Rn)] – 1.

The price movement and dividend per share of RIL is given below.

4

Financial Year Price at the end (Pt) (Rs.) Dividend Received (Dt) (Rs.)

2010-11 600 45

2011-12 650 30

2012-13 720 25

2013-14 760 40

2014-15 800 35

2015-16 850 45

2016-17 830 50

2017-18 870 55

2018-19 900 60

You are required to calculate, for the period 2011-12 to 2018-19:

a) Single period ex-post returns

b) Arithmetic average return

c) 8 year holding period return

d) Compound annual rate of return

Solution:

Single period ex-post return is given by,

Rt = +

Financial Pt Dt Rt (%)

Year

2010-11 600 45 ----- ----- ------

2011-12 650 30 = 0.13

Total 0.86

5

8 year holding period return = [(1+R1) (1+R2)…..(1+Rn)] – 1

= [(1+0.13)(1+0.15)(1+0.11)(1+0.10)(1+0.12)(1+0.04)(1+0.11)(1+0.10)] – 1 = 2.26 -1

= 126%

Note: While calculating the return, appropriate adjustment has to be made for bonus and

stock split declaration.

For holding period less than one year, annualized return can be calculated as follows:

For example, if 3 month HPR is 6%, then Annualized HPR = (1+0.06)12/3 – 1 = 26%. This is

also known as effective return.

Real Return = ( ) – 1.

For example, if HPR is 12% with inflation rate 2%, then real return = -1= 9.8%.

Ex-post return gives only a historical view. Thus, to evaluate the prospective performance,

we need to calculate ex-ante i.e. anticipated return. Its calculation requires two components –

the possible return (Ri) and the probability associated with that return (Pi).

Scenario Ri Pi Ri ˟ Pi

Boom 0.20 0.2 0.04

Moderate 0.15 0.5 0.075

Recession 0.10 0.3 0.03

1.0 0.145

6

So, ex-ante return is 14.5%.

helpful in evaluating the performance of an existing investment.

In making an investment decision, assessing the return is not enough. This is because, a

measurement of average historical rate of return does not necessarily mean that in every year

the investor realised the same return and hence, in future also the actual return may not be the

same with expected return. This uncertainty associated with an investment is called risk. Risk

is measured in terms of variability or dispersion of actual return from the average or expected

return. Again, risk can be calculated as ex-post (historical) risk or ex-ante (anticipated) risk.

It refers to the risk that has been realized or experienced. It is generally calculated as the

standard deviation of actual return from the mean return for a given period. It is used to

identify the risk of an investment already made and held for a period of time.

Year (t) 1 2 3 4 5

Return (Rt) (%) 5 10 20 10 5

Solution:

1 5 25

2 10 0

3 20 100

7

4 10 0

5 5 25

Total 50 150

So, Mean return = = 50/5 = 10%

While ex-post risk measures how variable was our earnings over the time, it is hardly useful

in determining the potential of an investment. Such an analysis requires calculation of

estimated risk or ex-ante risk. Ex-ante risk measures the variability of different possible

returns against the estimated return. It is basically a probabilistic estimation.

Risk = S D = σ =

Return (Ri) (%) 20 15 10

Probability (Pi) 0.2 0.5 0.3

Solution:

(Ri) (%) (Pi)

Boom 20 0.2 10.0 1.0 1 0.2

Moderate 12 0.5 6.0 -7.0 14 7.0

Recession 10 0.3 3.0 -9.0 81 24.3

19.0 96 31.5

8

7.4. Selection of Securities based on Mean-Variance Criteria

Once an investor determines the estimated return and risk of possible investment alternatives,

he or she needs to make a proper selection of investments. Though a large number of

qualitative as well as quantitative factors may play important role in this respect, the

estimated return (i.e. mean return) and the risk or standard deviation (square root of variance)

are considered to be the prime factors for selection. This is also known as mean-variance

criterion for selection of investment alternatives. However, the selection also depends on the

attitude of the investor. Based on his attitude towards risk an investor can be a risk seeker,

risk neutral or risk averse investor.

A risk seeker is a person who is always ready to take more risk in anticipation of higher

return.

A risk neutral is a person who does not consider risk while making investment decision.

A risk averse is a person who wants to avoid risk. However, a risk averse investor will also be

ready to take additional risk if the additional risk is adequately compensated by additional

return as per his expectation.

Accordingly, given the choice between two securities, the selection will be in the following

manner.

a) If two alternatives provide the same return, investors of all risk classes will select the

alternative with lower risk.

b) If two alternatives provide the same risk, investors of all risk classes will select the

alternative with higher return.

c) (i) If higher return comes with lower risk, then investors of all risk classes will select the

alternative with higher return (which also has lower risk).

(ii) If higher return comes with higher risk, then

a risk seeker investor will always select the alternative with higher return (which

also has higher risk).

a risk neutral investor will ignore the risk and will select the alternative with

higher return.

a risk averse investor may, however, settle down with the alternative with lower

return just to avoid taking more risk.

9

Note: In this situation also a risk averse investor may opt for the alternative with higher risk

(and higher return) if the additional risk is adequately compensated by additional return as per

his expectation.

Since the two alternatives provide the same return, investors of all risk classes will select the

alternative with lower risk i.e. alternative B.

Since the two alternatives provide the same risk, investors of all risk classes will select the

alternative with higher return i.e. alternative A.

Situation 3: Given, E(RA) = 20% E(RB) = 15% and σA = 10% and σB = 12%.

Here, higher return comes with lower risk. So, investors of all risk classes will select the

alternative with higher return i.e. alternative A.

Situation 4: Given, E(RA) = 20% E(RB) = 15% and σA = 13% and σB = 12%.

a risk seeker investor will always select the alternative with higher return (which

also has higher risk) i.e. alternative A.

a risk neutral investor will ignore the risk and will select the alternative with

higher return i.e. alternative A.

a risk averse investor may, however, settle down with the alternative with lower

return just to avoid taking more risk. So, he may select alternative B.

However, if the risk averse investor is satisfied with say, 4% additional return for every 1%

additional risk, he may select security A as it offers 5% additional return (as compared to B)

for additional 1% risk. Thus, the return to risk ratio plays an important role here.

Correlation measures the association between the returns of two securities. Portfolio risk

depends on this correlation.

10

Ex-ante correlation is calculated as = Covariance (x,y) ÷ σx.σy

= ÷ σx .σy

Calculation of expected return

Scenario Rxi (%) Ryi (%) Pi Rxi ˟ Pi Ryi ˟ Pi

A -10 5 0.2 -2 1

B 25 30 0.4 10 12

C 20 20 0.3 6 6

D 10 10 0.1 1 1

1.0 15 20

So, E(Rx) = 15% and E(Ry) = 20%.

Calculation of risk

Scenario [Ri – E(R)]2 Pi [ Ri – E(R)]2 [Ri – E(R)]2 Pi [ Ri – E(R)]2

A 625 125 225 45

B 100 40 100 40

C 25 7.5 0 0

D 25 2.5 100 10

175 95

σx = = 13.2287% and σy = = 9.7468%.

Calculation for correlation

Scenario [Rxi – E(Rx)] [Ryi – E(Ry)] [Rxi – E(Rx)]× [Ryi – Pi[Rxi – E(Rx)]× [Ryi –

E(Ry)] E(Ry)]

A -25 -15 375 75

B 10 10 100 40

C 5 0 0 0

D -5 -10 50 5

120

Correlation = = ÷ σx .σy

= = 0.9307

11

7.6. Expected Return and Risk of a Portfolio:

For two securities, portfolio return is calculated as follows.

E(RP) = Wx E(Rx) + Wy E(Ry) where ‘w’ refers to the weight i.e. proportional investment.

σP =

E(RP) = Wx E(Rx) + Wy E(Ry) + Wz E(Rz)

σP =

Given, E(Rx) = 20% E(Ry) = 15% and σx = 12% and σy = 10% and = -0.6

E(RP) = Wx E(Rx) + Wy E(Ry) = 0.5 20 + 0.5 15 = 17.5%

σP =

=

= 5%

Consider another example.

Given, E(Rx) = 20% E(Ry) = 15% and E(Rz) = 12% σx = 12%, σy = 10% σz = 8%

and = -0.6 = -0.4 and = -0.2

E(RP) = Wx E(Rx) + Wy E(Ry) = 0.5 20 + 0.3 15 + 0.2 12 = 16.9%

σP =

= – –

= 4.27%

Portfolio Risk Calculation - Some Special Cases:

The formula for calculating portfolio risk can be further simplified under the following

situations (values of correlation coefficient).

12

Value of Correlation Coefficient Portfolio Risk

= -1 σP =

=0 σP =

= +1 σP =

All other cases σP =

However, in all the cases, the formula for portfolio return remains the same.

7.7. Diversification – The Driving Force behind Portfolio Formation

There is a old saying that do not put all your eggs in one basket. The same is applicable for

investment also. Given the choice between two securities, if any investor selects only one

alternative, his risk and return will simply be the replication of the investment alternative he

has selected. In such a case if the alternative faces adverse market movement, entire

investment may be at a stake. Thus, it is suggested that forming a portfolio would be a better

idea. Though, it may lead to an average return, obviously lower than the better among the two

alternatives, if properly selected, it may lead to reduction of risk. This process of reducing the

portfolio risk by combining appropriate investment alternatives is known as diversification.

Systematic risk refers to the volatility in return due to various macroeconomic factors which

are beyond the control of a single firm, for example, interest rate, inflation rate etc. Thus, this

risk is economy specific and uncontrollable. Formation of portfolio can never reduce this

risk. Hence, it is also called non-diversifiable risk. Some of the systematic risk are purchasing

power risk, interest rate risk etc.

On the other hand, unsystematic risk is firm specific and often arises due to the inefficient

management, faulty capital structure of the firm etc. Formation of portfolio can reduce this

risk and hence this is called diversifiable risk.

There are two types of diversification strategy available – Naive Diversification and

Markowitz Diversification.

13

A. Naive Diversification

Naïve diversification says that an investor or analyst over the time can identify which

securities can be combined together to form a portfolio. There is no hard and fast rule about

this. As a result, the recommendation is highly subjective and often cannot backed by any

objective argument.

B. Markowitz Diversification

variance principle of portfolio risk and return calculation and objectively shows that portfolio

formation can reduce risk.

According to Markowitz, a portfolio based on securities whose returns have negative or zero

correlation or weakly positive correlation can effectively reduce the diversifiable risk and

hence total risk.

Suppose, there are two securities A and B with the following return and risk.

E(Rx) = 20%, E(Ry) = 15% and σx = 12%, σy = 10%, Wx = 50% and Wy = 50%.

Portfolio return and risk at different values of correlation coefficient will be as follows:

= -1 E(RP) = Wx E(Rx) + Wy E(Ry) σP =

= 0.5*20 + 0.5*15 = 17.5% = 1%

= -0.5 17.5% σP =

= 5.57%

=0 17.5% σP =

= 7.81%

= + 0.5 17.5% σP =

= 9.54%

=+1 17.5% 11%

Thus, it can be seen that the more the correlation approaches to -1, the higher is the

diversification benefits.

14

When diversification is not beneficial?

Very high positive correlation often hinders diversification benefits. The general rule is, for

diversification to be effective, correlation coefficient must be lower than ‘Lower S.D to

Higher S.D’ ratio.

In the previous example, Lower S.D to Higher S.D ratio = 10/12 = 0.83.

It may be noted that the portfolio risk is higher than the risk of security B which is the lower

risky security. Thus, here, portfolio cannot reduce the risk.

Formation of portfolio can reduce the diversifiable risk (or unsystematic risk). As a result, the

investor changes his securities weight in such a manner that can reduce portfolio risk to its

minimum.

The portfolio which has been constructed in such a way that its risk (measured in terms of

S.D or variance) has become the minimum is known as minimum variance portfolio.

The weights of individual securities for which the portfolio variance (i.e. risk) becomes

minimum are known as optimum weights. Mathematically, these can be obtained by setting

the first order derivative of portfolio variance as zero and obtaining values of weights for

which the second order derivative is positive.

Wx = and Wy = 1 - Wx

15

Given, E(Rx) = 20%, E(Ry) = 15% and σx = 12%, σy = 10% and = 0.6

variance portfolio.

Note: For = - 1, the optimum weights will completely eliminate the portfolio risk (i.e. it

will become zero).

Model MCQs (Answers given in bold)

1. Which of the following is a financial asset?

A. Diamond

B. Real estate

C. Gold

D. Fixed Deposits of Banks

2. Which of the following instruments is not free from default risk?

A. NSC

B. Kishan Vikas Patra

C. Sukanya Samridhi Scheme

D. Deposits in Non-Banking Finance Companies

3. Which of the following is the formula to calculate real return?

A. Nominal return + inflation rate

B. Nominal return – inflation rate

C.

D. -1

A. Investment in LIC

B. Investment in real estate

C. Investment in fixed deposits of banks

D. Investment in corporate bonds

16

5. If return from an investment in 3 months is 10%, what will be the annualized return or

effective annual return?

A. 21%

B. 20%

C. 46.41%

D. 11%

6. Mr. X invested in the shares of RIL when the price per share was Rs. 100. During the

period of holding he received dividend of Rs. 5. If he sold the investment at Rs. 120, what

will be his holding period return?

A. 25%

B. 20%

C. 18%

D. 10%

7. Under portfolio management, the primary objective behind constructing a portfolio is

A. Maximization of return

B. Minimization of risk

C. Wealth accumulation

D. Regular earning

8. Mr. Y predicts three outcomes of economic scenario viz. Boom, Moderate and Recession

with probabilities 0.1, 0.7 and 0.2. If the possible returns under those scenarios are 20%,

14% and 10% respectively, what will be the expected or ex-ante return?

A. 13.8%

B. 15%

C. 20%

D. 10%

9. If E(RA) = E(RB) and σA < σB, a risk averse investor will prefer

A. Security A

B. Security B

C. Anyone of security A and B

D. Neither of security A and B

10. If E(RA) = 10% and E(RB) = 8% and an investor invests 40% in A and 60% in B, then

expected return of the portfolio will be

A. 17%

B. 8.8%

17

C. 20%

D. 15%

11. Given, correlation coefficient between the returns of security A and B = -1. If risk of the

securities are given by σA = 15% and σB = 10% with weights of 50% each, then σP will be

A. 18%

B. 10%

C. 8%

D. 2.5%

12. In which of the following cases diversification is not beneficial?

A. When the correlation between returns is negative

B. When the correlation between returns is negative

13. Calculate risk minimizing portfolio weights if σA = 20% and σB = 15% and rAB = -1.

A. WA = 0.375 and WB = 0.625

B. WA = 0.43 and WB = 0.57

C. WA = 0.5 and WB = 0.5

D. WA = 0.125 and WB = 0.875

14. A portfolio of two securities can eliminate the risk completely only when the value of

correlation coefficient between their returns is

A. +1

B. 0

C. -1

D. -0.5

18

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