Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
gov>
To: "'Philip D. Jones'" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Subject: [Fwd: Re: [Fwd: Typo in equation 12 Santer.]]
Date: Thu, 30 Oct 2008 20:14:41 -0700
Reply-to: santer1@llnl.gov
<x-flowed>
Dear Phil,
Cheers,
Ben
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benjamin D. Santer
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103
Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A.
Tel: (925) 422-3840
FAX: (925) 422-7675
email: santer1@llnl.gov
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Account-Key: account1
Return-Path: <santer1@llnl.gov>
Received: from mail-2.llnl.gov ([unix socket])
by mail-2.llnl.gov (Cyrus v2.2.12) with LMTPA;
Thu, 30 Oct 2008 20:10:53 -0700
Received: from nspiron-1.llnl.gov (nspiron-1.llnl.gov [128.115.41.81])
by mail-2.llnl.gov (8.13.1/8.12.3/LLNL evision: 1.7 $) with ESMTP id
m9V3Arh7024023;
Thu, 30 Oct 2008 20:10:53 -0700
X-Attachments: None
X-IronPort-AV: E=McAfee;i="5300,2777,5419"; a="30418306"
X-IronPort-AV: E=Sophos;i="4.33,519,1220252400";
d="scan'208";a="30418306"
Received: from dione.llnl.gov (HELO [128.115.57.29]) ([128.115.57.29])
by nspiron-1.llnl.gov with ESMTP; 30 Oct 2008 20:10:53 -0700
Message-ID: <490A773D.20807@llnl.gov>
Date: Thu, 30 Oct 2008 20:10:53 -0700
From: Ben Santer <santer1@llnl.gov>
Reply-To: santer1@llnl.gov
Organization: LLNL
User-Agent: Thunderbird 1.5.0.12 (X11/20070529)
MIME-Version: 1.0
To: Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>
CC: Karl Taylor <taylor13@llnl.gov>
Subject: Re: [Fwd: Typo in equation 12 Santer.]
References: <1224543811.19301.2452.camel@isotope.giss.nasa.gov>
In-Reply-To: <1224543811.19301.2452.camel@isotope.giss.nasa.gov>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
<x-flowed>
Dear Gavin,
There is no typo in equation 12. The first term under the square root in
equation 12 is a standard estimate of the variance of a sample mean
(see, e.g., "Statistical Analysis in Climate Research", Zwiers and
Storch, their equation 5.24, page 86). The second term under the square
root sign is a very different beast - an estimate of the variance of the
observed trend. As we point out, our d1* test is very similar to a
standard Student's t-test of differences in means (which involves, in
its denominator, the square root of two pooled sample variances).
Our Figure 6A is not a statistical test. It does not show the standard
errors in the observed trends at discrete pressure levels (which would
have made for a very messy Figure, given that we show results from 7
different observational datasets). Had we attempted to show the observed
standard errors in Figure 6A, I suspect that standard errors from the
RICH, IUK, RAOBCORE-v1.3, and RAOBCORE 1.4 datasets would have
overlapped with the multi-model average trend at most pressure levels. I
can easily produce such a Figure if necessary.
Ben
--
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benjamin D. Santer
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103
Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A.
Tel: (925) 422-3840
FAX: (925) 422-7675
email: santer1@llnl.gov
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
</x-flowed>