Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Euroland USA
5.0
Wheat 10 - 2.0 + 5.0 = 13.0 ( 3.0 ) 100 - 5.0 + 5.0 = 100.0 ( 0.0 )
5.0
120
Belgium Germany
Ireland Greece
Spain France
115
Italy Netherlands
Austria Portugal
110 Finland
105
100
95
90
85
80
62000 © Vlerick Business
2001 2002 School2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NEGATIVE ELECTRICITY PRICES
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%
Belgium
Germany
Hungary
France
Austria
Italy
Sweden
Finland
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Spain
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Denmark
Netherlands
Turkey
Norway
Luxembourg
Poland
Iceland
United Kingdom
Canada
Japan
United States
Ireland
Australia
Switzerland
Korea
Israel
Mexico
New Zealand
Chile
2
Greece2
1. Corresponds to Table I.1, columns 2 and 5.
2. The 2011 average earnings figure for Greece was not available at the final compilation stage.
© Vlerick Business School
Figure I.6 Marginal rate of income tax plus employee and employer
contributions less cash benefits, 2011
As % of labour costs, by family-type1
Single no child Married one-earner couple 2 children
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Belgium
Hungary
Austria
(MARGINAL)
TAX WEDGE
Germany
Finland
Ireland
Luxembourg
Italy
France
Norway
Slovenia
Portugal
Czech Republic
Spain
Sweden
Netherlands
Slovak…
Iceland
Estonia
Denmark
Turkey
United States
Canada
United…
Israel
Poland
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
Korea
Switzerland
Mexico
Chile
2
Greece2
1. Corresponds to Table I.6, columns 2 and 5.
2. The 2011 average earnings figure for Greece was not available at the final compilation stage.
Definition:
value added
income received
Spending
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/
http://www.oecd.org/
http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
http://data.worldbank.org/
http://www.gapminder.org/
The Euro
Banks and Money
The crisis of the euro
Impact on the economy of the
eurocrisis
Policy response
The Euro
Banks and Money
The crisis of the euro
Impact on the economy of the
eurocrisis
Policy response
Monetary efficiency
gain for the joining country
GG
http://www.ecb.int/euro/intro/html/map.en.html
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
USA EA 17 China Japan UK India Canada
Series1 15064 13355 6988 5855 2480 1843 1759
Source: IMF
LL
GG
LL
10,0%
Eurozone
8,0%
Belgium
Germany
6,0% Estonia
Ireland
4,0% Greece
Spain
France
2,0%
Italy
Luxembourg
0,0% Netherlands
Austria
-2,0% Portugal
Slovenia
Slovakia
-4,0%
Finland
-6,0%
1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
-8,0%
1 Paul De Grauwe (2011): Managing a Fragile Eurozone, CESifo Forum, 12(2), 40-45
53
53 © Vlerick Business School
IS THE EU AN OCA?
The Euro
Banks and Money
The crisis of the euro
Impact on the economy of the
eurocrisis
Policy response
58
THE MEANING OF MONEY
Money is any asset that can easily be used to
purchase goods and services.
Source: ECB
70 © Vlerick Business School
GDP includes all market transactions,
also the «Underground economy »
(SIZE OF UNDERGROUND ECONOMY AS A PERCENT OF GDP)
30
25
20
15
10
0
Fr s
D any
G and
G ly
S w nd
Sp l
Fi rk
en
Po um
e
Ire e
ria
SA
er K
n
n
ga
nd
ec
c
Ita
pa
ai
U
a
a
an
ed
st
rtu
U
i
m
la
m
l
lg
nl
re
Ja
Au
en
Be
er
h
et
N
NOW:
National Supervisors (central banks or
other authorities)
Weak EU coordination (ESFS)
NEAR FUTURE:
ECB supervises
EU Bank resolution Fund
EU Deposit Guarantee Fund?
USA:
Reserve requirements — rules set by the Federal Reserve
that determine the minimum reserve ratio for a bank. For
example, in the United States, the minimum reserve ratio for
checkable bank deposits is 10%.
The discount window is an arrangement in which the
Federal Reserve stands ready to lend money to banks in
trouble.
EU:
Reserve requirements - 2% on Overnight deposits,
deposits with agreed maturity or period of notice up to 2
years, debt securities issued with maturity up to 2 years,
money market paper (1% starting 18th January 2012)
Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA)
81 © Vlerick Business School
DETERMINING THE MONEY SUPPLY
ESCB
Eurosystem
Executive Board
of the ECB
European Central Bank
General Council
of the ECB
90
90 © Vlerick Business School
GOVERNING COUNCIL OF THE ECB
97
97 © Vlerick Business School
OVERVIEW
The Euro
Banks and Money
The crisis of the euro
Impact on the economy of the
eurocrisis
Policy response
M+Y=C+I+G+X
Y= C + I + G + (X - M)
Y= C + I + G + (X - M) + T – T
But: (Y – T – C) = S
So: S = I + G – T + (X – M)
Or: (S – I) + (T – G) = (X –M)
Y=Total income or GDP
C= consumption of families
I=investment; G=government spending
X= exports; M=imports; T= taxes; S=savings
X-M: current account balance (bar few corrections)
99 © Vlerick Business School
AN ECONOMY CAN BECOME INSOLVENT
120
Belgium Germany
Ireland Greece
Spain France
115
Italy Netherlands
Austria Portugal
110 Finland
105
100
95
90
85
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
102 © Vlerick Business School
LABOUR COSTS AND PRODUCTIVITY 2000-
2007, ANNUAL CHANGE
6
-1
-2
-3
-4
IE ES EL IT PT BE NL FR EA 17 FI AT DE
Labour Costs Labour productivity ULC
Source: ECB
103 © Vlerick Business School
WE NOW LOOK AT:
Maastricht Treaty:
deficit < 3% of GDP
debt < 60% GDP or sufficiently declining
Stability and Growth Pact (SGP, Waigel,
1997): apply the same rules after euro was
introduced
In 2004, Germany and France breached the
3% GDP ceiling and the Pact was not applied
12 120
10 100
8 80
6 60
4 40
2 20
0 0
-2 -20
-4 -40
-6 -60
-8 -80
France
Portugal
Sweden
Belgium
Italy
Austria
Denmark
Ireland
Spain
Finland
UK
Germany
Greece
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Change in cyclically adjusted primary balance
1992 till 1998 1998 till 2004 Government debt in 2007 (right hand scale; red if increase since 1998)
Greece Spain
15,00
France Italy
Netherlands Austria
10,00
Portugal Finland
5,00
0,00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
260
30
240
25 220
200
20
180
15
160
140
10
120
5
100
80
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EL IE ES FI AT PT IT NL FR EA BE DE
ES IE FR EL IT
Source: ECB. BE NL EA FI DE
109 © Vlerick Business School
DEBT OF FAMILIES, PERCENT OF GDP
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
2008
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
2010
2009
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
EL IT FR BE
ES PT IE NL EA17
DE EA17 AT FI
Source Eurostat.
110 © Vlerick Business School
SAVINGS AND DEBTS
(SUM OF NET-BORROWING TOWARDS REST OF THE
WORLD, 2002-2011, % OF GDP)
80
60
40
20
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
Spain
Emission After 1 year
Bond 100.0 € 90.0 €
Coupon 5.0 € 5.0 €
interest rate in % 5.00 5.56
Germany
Emission After 1 year
Bond 100.0 € 109.0 €
Coupon 4.5 € 4.5 €
interest rate in % 4.50 4.13
EUROCRISIS
2010
121
121 © Vlerick Business School
Break up of the euro
The Euro
Banks and Money
The crisis of the euro
Impact on the economy of the
eurocrisis
Policy response
Y= C + I + G + (X - M)
16 2009
2010
14
2011
12
2012
10
8
6
4
2
0
m
27
l
nd
nd
ly
n
y
s
SA
e
ria
ce
ga
an
nd
pa
ai
ec
U
Ita
iu
la
la
an
st
EU
rtu
U
Sp
lg
rl a
Ja
m
re
Po
Ire
Au
Fr
Be
Po
er
G
he
G
et
N
Source: EC
133
133 © Vlerick Business School
OUTLOOK VERY UNSURE
110
100
90
80
EU EA
70
long-term av erage (1990-2011) = 100
60
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
source: European Commission services
In December 2012, the DG ECFIN flash estimate1 of the consumer confidence indicator2
remained broadly unchanged in both the EU (-24.1 after -23.8 in November 2012) and the
euro area (-26.6 after -26.9 in November 2012).
-5 EU EA
-10
Balances, %
-15
-20
EU long-term average
-25
-30
-35
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1
This month's Flash CCI for the EU aggregate is computed on the basis of consumer survey data from 23 EU countries, covering
135 © Vlerick Business School
about 98.5% of the total private final consumption expenditure. For the euro-area indicator, the 16 countries included represent
Risks to the outlook
10 55
0 50
-10 45
-20 40
-30 35
-40 30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
Average growth 2010-2013
-3%
-4%
The Euro
Banks and Money
The crisis of the euro
Impact on the economy of the
eurocrisis
Policy response
Y= C + I + G + (X - M)
148
INFLATION TARGET: SECURITY MARGIN
zero lower bound of nominal
interest rates
positive measurement bias in the
HICP
downward nominal rigidities in
wages
inflation differentials across euro
area countries
150
2000M05
2000M09
2001M01
2001M05
2001M09
2002M01
2002M05
2003M01
2003M05
2003M09
2004M01
2004M05
EONIA
2004M09
1 month rate
2005M01
3 months rate
2005M05
Official deposit rates
Official lending rates
6 months interest rate
12 months interest rate
2005M09
2006M01
2006M05
Official refinancing operation rates
2006M09
2007M01
2007M05
2007M09
2008M01
2008M05
2008M09
2009M01
2009M05
2009M09
2010M01
ECB POLICY RATES CUT TO HISTORICAL
2010M05
2010M09
2011M01
2011M05
2011M09
2012M01
2012M05
MONETARY POLICY: CENTRAL BANK
ACTIONS
Unconventional tools
170
Base money M3
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
164
164 © Vlerick Business School
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN
TOTAL BUDGETARY SUPPORT TO ECONOMIC
ACTIVITY
BE
DE
ES
FR
Budget 2009
IT
Budget 2010
PL
UK
EU-27
2871
3188 Safe debt (GE, NL, AU, FI, SL, SI,
others)
Intermediary (FR, BE, IR)
2226
1. Stimulate growth
2. European Bank union
3. Solve the sovereign debt crisis
4. Big leap forward in EU economic
governance
USA
22% EA 17
32% China
Japan
UK
India
19%
Canada
2%
Rest
3%
4% 8% 10%
http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings
1 Hans Geeroms and Wim Moesen, The EU at a Crossroads, CES, November 2011