7/14/2019 Preparing for the unknowable - Earthquake science

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Earthquake science

Preparing for the unknowable

Why the Kashmir earthquake happened and what might be done

Print edition | Special report

Oct 13th 2005

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PAKISTAN'S earthquake measured 7.6 on a scale known as the moment magnitude. This
measure, a successor to Richter, allows seismologists to compare the energy released by
di erent earthquakes. At each step of the scale, about 32 times more energy is released than at
the previous step. It has no upper limit, but the largest recorded earthquake was in southern
Chile in 1960 and measured 9.5.

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Earthquakes happen mostly where the earth's tectonic plates collide. In Pakistan, quake
activity is mainly concentrated in the northern and western sections of the country, along the
boundary of the Indian, Iranian and Eurasian plates. The Indian plate is moving north at about
5cm a year, resulting in a force on the southern edge of the Tibetan plateau—the force that
generates the Himalayas. As a result, earthquakes occur along the Himalayas all the way to
Myanmar. (The movement of the Indian plate also caused the devastating Sumatra-Andaman
earthquake and tsunami late last year.) Subscribe now

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In recent years, Pakistan has not su ered as greatly from earthquakes as its neighbours in the
Each
Himalayas, Afghanistan, Nepal, week,
China overIts
and India. one million
biggest earthquake in living memory
subscribers
occurred in Quetta in 1935, with trustNevertheless,
30,000 deaths. us to help them
Kashmir is seismically active on
make
both sides of the border, with many sense
regular, of the
though world.
less damaging, quakes. In 2002 in the
Gilgit-Astore region, 100kmJoin
(63 them.
miles)Subscribe
north of to
Muza arabad, large
The Economist today earthquakes made about
16,000 people homeless. or Sign up to continue reading five free articles

Across the Himalayas there is what seismologists call a “slip de cit”—a lack of earthquakes to
release the stress that is known to be accumulating. The Kashmir quake was in just such a
region, where a great earthquake was overdue. Nevertheless, Roger Bilham, of the University
of Colorado, says it is doubtful that the Kashmir quake released more than one tenth of the
cumulative energy stored there. Furthermore, in the past half-century the Himalayan region
has seen fewer powerful earthquakes than might be predicted from historical records. The
most notable area of concern is the central Himalayan Gap, a 600km-long central arc of the
Himalayas. Mr Bilham believes this area has the potential to generate several earthquakes of
magnitude 8 or more, and is the most vulnerable (in terms of potential loss of life and
damage) of the regions that could produce a great earthquake. The whole of Nepal is also a
worry.

The Kashmir quake may be the worst recorded in the Indian subcontinent. Its deadliness was
linked, among other things, to the weakness of buildings, the depth of the quake, the density
of population, the fault and soil types, and the intensity of the shaking. The Bhuj earthquake,
only 100km from the border of Pakistan, was of similar magnitude but killed 18,500.

Because of population growth and density in the Himalayas, hundreds of thousands may be at
risk—particularly in India, where the government and the United Nations Development
Programme have identi ed 38 cities with more than half a million people located in the most
seismically active regions. A way has to be found to reduce the deadliness of quakes in the
most vulnerable areas.

Yet earthquakes cannot be predicted accurately enough to know when people should be
evacuated. It is all the harder in the Himalayan region, with hidden underground faults that
are poorly monitored by seismic instruments. That leaves two options, other than fatalism: to
put up better buildings, and to improve planning for responding to disasters.

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7/14/2019 Preparing for the unknowable - Earthquake science

Progress is slow. Key buildings in need of better earthquake-proo ng have been identi ed in
Each week,
Delhi, and work is under way. Similar over onehave
plans elsewhere million
come too late to help the hospitals
in Indian Kashmir. Though subscribers
it is impossibletrust us to
to make help them
buildings completely resistant to
makesafer.
earthquakes, they can be made much sense of the
In both world.
India and Pakistan, building codes exist; in
both countries, they have been
Join poorly enforced,towith
them. Subscribe masses oftoday
The Economist unprotected housing stock in
areas of great danger. or Sign up to continue reading five free articles

In India, to build more suitable housing would add only 2-4% to construction costs. But in the
poorest regions, such as Kashmir, most houses are built of local materials by the people who
then live in them. In fact, in India, 80% of housing is owner-built. Architects and engineers,
who might improve building and design, are in short supply. It is lack of knowledge and skills
that is the main problem, rather than the cost of the work.

Greater scienti c knowledge about the region's earthquakes and faults would much improve
understanding of which areas are most at risk. For this reason, Mr Bilham wants to gather
evidence as quickly as he can before rain or earth-slips obliterate it. Astonishingly, he has
been refused a visa.

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Oct 13th 2005
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