MT101 | Market Timing Introduction for Professionals

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MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

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Market Timing for Professionals
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Executive Course Day 1
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CHARLES WILLIAM ANG, CFA | MT101 Instructor

PSEi (10 year chart)
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10yr CAGR = 9.0%
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Two Questions
1. Is this the right place to be investing in?
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2. Is there any way to further improve returns?
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Real Returns US Markets (1801 – 2001)
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Source: Stocks for the Long Run 4th edition by Jeremy Siegel
Stocks outperform all asset classes!

Real Returns Developed Markets (1900 – 2006)
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Stocks outperform all asset classes!

Risk, Return and Holding Period US Markets (1802 – 2006)
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Source: Stocks for the Long Run 4th edition by Jeremy Siegel
Key is investing over the long term

Improving Returns Through the FTSR Framework
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Outline for Day 1
AM session:
Improving Returns through the FTSR framework (10-39)
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Intro to Fundamental Analysis: Classifying Stocks through
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Growth Rates (40-56)
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Identifying winners (57-116)
Linking Fundamentals and Technicals (117-136)
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PM session: Workshop

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IMPROVING RETURNS THROUGH
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THE FTSR FRAMEWORK

What drives stock price?
 (Fair) Price
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 Earnings
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In theory, fair price should track earnings trend

What drives stock price?
 Price
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 Earnings
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In reality, price is also affected by other things –

PERCEPTIONS, EXPECTATIONS and EMOTIONS

Knowing Earnings is not Enough
Knowing earnings trend is important; but not enough
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One should also understand what the market is
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currently thinking and feeling and anticipate what
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it will most likely think and feel tomorrow
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Perceptions, Expectations, Emotions – JGS Placement
JGS Placement
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Perceptions, Expectations, Emotions – JGS Placement
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Perceptions, Expectations, Emotions – JGS Placement (2015)
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Perceptions, Expectations, Emotions – ALI (2 years)
1Q15: up 19% 1H16: up 16%
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1H15: up 19% FY16: up 19%
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9M16: up 17%
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9M15: up 19% 1Q16: up 14%
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FY15: up 19%

Fundamentals and Technicals
It is the market (not the fundamentals, nor you) who
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ultimately moves the share price
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Nevertheless, understanding fundamentals gives you
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an edge over the other players
)
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FTSR Framework
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Fundamentals VS Technicals
Fundamentals Technicals
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Looks at Business Looks at Price
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Long Term Short Term
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Searches Value Searches Demand
) C
(c
Impossible to forecast
Price action is sketchy
the future

Fundamentals VS Technicals
Fundamentals Technicals
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Good Quality Companies Market Confirms
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Cheap could remain Prices may not be
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cheap sustainable
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Long-term outlook, short-term execution
)
(c
Fundamentals is your outlook,
Technicals is your confirmation

FTSR Framework
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C)
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Understanding Market Sentiment
Emotions are inevitable
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Challenge is to:
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1) Learn to control your emotions
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2) Capitalize on the emotions of the market
)
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The Emotional Cycle of Investing: Bull-Bear Cycle
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Source: Psychological Crowd Profile Analysis by James E. Schildgen

Shanghai Composite Index (2006-2014)
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US Tech Bubble (2000)
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) C
(c

Shanghai Composite Index (2014-2017)
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Emotional Cycle of Investing
Cycles are a demonstration of human frailties.

•You can characterize points in the cycle using emotions
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Source: OptionAlpha.com

Hope Greed
to cherish a desire a selfish and excessive
with anticipation desire for more
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Despair Fear
to lose all hope
) C to be afraid of ;
or confidence to expect with alarm
(c

Knowing where you are in the Stock Market Cycle

holds advantages:
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• Filtering out noise
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• Take out emotion
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• Implement a strategy suitable for current market conditions
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1) Looking at the Big Picture
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2) See corresponding valuations
)
(c
3) Making sense of what the market is telling you

Always Look at the Big Picture
Appraising market conditions

• Always look at the big picture
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– A rising tide lifts all boats
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– Immediately, the probabilities are shifted to your favor
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AY
• By having a long-term outlook, you have a road map.
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– Your views are not easily thrown off by short-term volatility
)
(c
– You are set up for bigger opportunities and become less
vulnerable to unwelcome surprises

Philippines Index (2007 – 2017)
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What do you think are general

conditions doing in the past 5 years?

Always Look at the Big Picture
China (2009 – 2013)
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What do you think are general
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conditions doing in the past 5 years?
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AY
)C
(c

Risk Management
However, some risks will always remain
Diversification
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Position Sizing
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Cutting losses
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C
Always remember: risks first; profits second!
)
(c

Market Timing System and Philosophy
Market Timing: Long-term outlook, short-term execution
Fundamentals: Screening for solid companies
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Technicals: Understanding what the price is telling you
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Sentiment: Identifying where you are in the cycle
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Risk: Protecting while maximizing your capital
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Overall: Building a system

Market Timing System and Philosophy
Executive course program:
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Goal: Improve yearly returns by 5 to 10%
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6 to 12 months mindset
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Essence of Owning a Stock
What does it mean when you own a stock?
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Essence of Owning a Stock
The value of a share is determined by how well the

company performs
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Earnings = Returns
)C
(c

Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis: study of all factors that affect the

future success (earnings) of a company
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Competition Economy
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Efficiency Technology
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Management Strategy
) C
Product Innovation
Growth Niche
(c
Buying companies should be entrepreneurial

Earnings as Ultimate Driver of Share Price
Share Price
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Earnings
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C
Current Earnings + Future Growth
)
(c

Classification of Stocks
Current Earnings No Growth (Value)
Future Growth
Steady Growth (10-15%)
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High Growth (>15%)
)C
(c
Speculative

No Growth (Value)
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Growth Forecast: 2%
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2016 Earnings: Php20Bil
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Market Cap: Php331Bil
) C
P/E: 16.5X
(c

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Growth Forecast: 12%
LU
2016 Earnings: Php23.8Bil
AY
) C
P/E: 21.3X
(c

High Growth (>15%)
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Growth Forecast: 18%
LU
2016 Earnings: Php6.1Bil
AY
) C
P/E: 34.3X
(c

Speculative
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Growth Forecast: 48%??
LU
2016 Earnings: Php1Bil??
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) C
P/E: 119++X
(c

Growth versus Value
Fair Value =
Value of Existing Business + Value of Future Growth
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More uncertainty/
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Higher risk
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)C Higher return
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Growth stocks outperform over the long term!

Growth versus Value
Uncertainty in valuing growth stocks
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Growth versus Value
What about the higher risk?
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Risk is limited by the FTSR framework
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Focusing on growth stocks while executing using FTSR
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framework allows us to maximize returns
)
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Growth versus Value
Growth Value
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More potential Cheap
Pros
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Huge interest Predictable
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Higher premiums Few interest
Cons
More uncertain/volatile )C Limited upside
(c
High expectations
Biggest Value traps
(huge downside if expectations Risk (cheap stocks remain cheap)
fail to materialize)

Growth versus Value
High Expectations – PGOLD (5 Years)
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C
Announced weaker than
)
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expected earnings

Growth versus Value
Value Trap – EDC (5 Years)
Cheap stocks remain cheap for a long time
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Classification of Stocks – 45° vs 90°
No Growth (Value)
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45° stock
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High Growth (>15%) Earnings driven
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Speculative
90° stock
Speculation

45° stock - Earnings driven
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(c

45° stock - Earnings driven
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) C
(c

90° stock - Speculation
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) C
(c

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) C
(c

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(c

Conclusion
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It is possible to make money from all types of stocks
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However, market timers (executive course) can
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maximize their returns by focusing on earnings-
driven, growth stocks
)
(c

M
L U
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) C IDENTIFYING WINNERS
(c

Steps in Identifying Winners
1. Look for megatrends and identify sectors that benefits
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2. Classify stocks within the sector
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3. Understand the business of the company
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4. Visualize the future of the company
C
5. Consider what the market is currently pricing in
)
(c

Spotting Megatrends (Step 1)
Megatrends – Secular or structural changes that

permanently & significantly alter the society/economy
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U
Possible causes:
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- Technological advancements
AY
- Demographic changes (age, lifestyle, purchasing power)
C
- Environmental/regulatory changes
)
(c
Usually leads to an inflection point where rapid adoption and

production occurs

Examples of Megatrends
Philippines: Demographic changes
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)C
(c

Philippines: Demographic changes
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)C
(c

Philippines: Young population + BPOs & Remittances

= Rising consumption spending
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 Consumer stocks among top performers
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• URC (Rev Growth – 2013:14%; 2014: 14%; 2015: 21%)
C
• JFC (Rev Growth – 2013: 13%; 2014: 13%; 2015: 10%)
)
• DNL (Rev Growth – 2013: -1%; 2014: 50%; 2015: 45%)
(c

URC, JFC, DNL – 5 Year Chart
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DNL: +404%
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)C URC: +255%
(c
JFC: +137%

Other megatrends:
Philippines:
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– Rising property prices – Motorization
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– Tourism – Infrastructure
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Global: ) C
– Mobile internet – Shale revolution
(c
– Cloud storage – China pollution

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C
)
(c

Classifying Stocks (Step 2)
Different stocks behave differently
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Can be grouped into the following categories:
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Market leaders Turnaround situations
Top competitors
)C Cyclical stocks
(c
Institutional favorites Past leaders and laggards

Market Leaders
Largest companies with strong earnings growth
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Sector should be experiencing strong growth
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Company clearly superior to the other players
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AY
Strong competitive advantage to sustain position
Can often be seen in the price action of the company
) C
(c

Top Competitors
Niche player with strong earnings growth
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Relatively smaller compared to market leader
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While note better overall, it does a certain thing better
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than everyone else
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May eventually overtake the market leader
) C
(c

Market Leaders & Top Competitors
Challenge is almost always about valuations
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)C
(c
34X P/E 119++X P/E

+137% in 5 yrs over 25X since IPO

Key is to look at the future prospects
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18% annual 4.8Bil guidance by

growth for next 2020
3+ years 25x P/E?

2 most important questions:

What is the company’s competitive advantage?
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Is the business model scalable?
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If yes, could potential generate substantial returns over
a long time ) C
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Risk is if fails to meet high expectations

Institutional Favorites
Mature and predictable businesses (blue chips)
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Much less uncertainty compared to other groups
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Good track record of growth, performance
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AY
Slow and steady growth; less than market leaders/top
competitors
C
Widely followed; less upside potential
)
(c

Turnaround Situations
Troubled companies that resume growth trajectory
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Accelerating growth in last 2 or 3 quarters
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Underlying driver of profit improvement sustainable
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AY
Significantly exceeding low expectations
Turnaround reflected in strong share price performance
) C
(c

Can provide huge returns as earnings grow and

price rerates
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+256%
) C
(c

Sustainability of turnaround is important
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???
) C
(c

Cyclical Stocks
Companies that are sensitive to economy or

commodity prices
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Business that is greatly affected by economic cycles
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AY
Inverse P/E cycle: High P/E before a major rally; low
P/E at the top ) C
(c

Cyclical Stocks
Key is to identify the next cycle earlier than others
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2016 elections:
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+144%
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2010 elections:
+367%
C)
(c

Inverse P/E cycle

10X P/E
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)C
(c
18X P/E

Past Leaders and Laggards
Companies inferior to market leaders
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Inferior sales and earnings growth
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Strong performance usually brief and unsustainable
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AY
Price action lags leaders; rallies usually just to catch up
Usually relatively cheaper than leaders (but cheap for a
reason?)
) C
(c

Past Leaders and Laggards
Try to stay away from laggards

Usually underperforms over the long term
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) C
(c

Summary of Groups
Leaders Competitor Favorites Turnaround Cyclical Laggards

Earnings From weak
Strong Strong Steady Cyclical Weak
growth to strong
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Industry Strong Strong Steady Any Cyclical Any
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Recently
Price action Strong Strong Steady Cyclical Weak
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strong
Low to High
Valuation Very high Very high
) C High Low
Avoid
(inverse)
Low
(c
Trading Aggressive Aggressive After Upswings
unless Avoid
strategy (Coils) (Coils) selloffs only
confident
Preferred Preferred

Summary of Groups
Overlaps among the groups are possible
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Market leader &
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Institutional favorite
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AY
Cyclical &
) C
Turnaround story
(c
Companies may change groups in time (but not overnight)

Important to regularly monitor the companies

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AY
C
)
(c

Understanding the Business (Step 3)
Analyzing stocks should be entrepreneurial
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Main goals:
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1. Identifying the company’s competitive advantage
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AY
help determine the sustainability of business
C
2. Understanding the drivers of earnings
)
help project the growth outlook going forward
(c

Understanding the Business
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)C
(c

Determining Competitive Advantage
Competitive Advantage – any attribute that allows a

company to outperform its competitors
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U
Differentiation (branding)
L
Management/ manpower
AY
Operational effectiveness
Cost leadership
) C
(c
Technology/ innovation
Distribution network

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AY
)C
(c

Should be verified by high and rising margins

‒ Net margins for established businesses
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‒ Gross margins for young businesses
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Net Margins
AY
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ALI
GLO
15.4
15.7
17.3
)
14.5
C 18.1
12.4
15.4
5.5
16.6
13.5
15.5
12.8
(c
MWC 36.1 35.5 37.4 37.6 35.5 38.6

CEB 23.8 10.7 10.2 1.2 1.6 12.0

ALI is the only stock that

outperformed the index
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) C
(c

Understanding Revenue and Growth Drivers
Sales Price x Quantity

– Cost of Goods (Variable) Input cost; scale
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Gross Profit Gross margin
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– Operating Expenses (Var&Fixed) Cost efficiencies, scale
Profit before Tax
) C Operating margin
(c
– Taxes
Net Income Net margin

Sales = Price X Quantity
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Price: Pricing power of company
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AY
C
Quantity: Product demand; Capacity
)
(c

Cost of Goods = Cost X Quantity
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Cost: Economies of scale; Input costs
L
AY
C
Pricing power, economies of scale, and input costs are
)
(c
all reflected in Gross Margin

Operating Expenses
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U
Cost efficiencies either through
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cost cutting or scale
) C
Scale (leverage): The higher the % of fixed costs, the
(c
slower the growth/decline in operating expenses

M
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C)
(c

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C)
(c

Preference
Volume
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Scale
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Price
AY
Input Cost
) C
Operating Cost
(c
Not all growth are created equal

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C
)
(c

Visualizing the Future of the Company (Step 4)
Easiest way to beat the “experts” is by always being

aware of the BIG PICTURE
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U
Investors and traders tend to have a short time horizon
L
AY
Human nature
Investment goals ) C
(c
“What will the company look like in 5 years? 10 years?”

Emperador Case Study
Sept 2013, EMP sold 1.8Bil shares (Php16.2Bil) in its IPO
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At that time, it was expected to earn Php6.2Bil for 2013
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(24% y/y growth; 55% 3 yr CAGR from 2010 to 2013)
L
AY
Key points: Best selling brandy in world with 31Mil cases/year
C
Banking on rising purchasing power to boost sales
)
(c

Some other important points:

1. 96% of EMP’s sales come from brandy segment; 86% from
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Emperador Light
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2. EMP already market leader in brandy sales in Phil,
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accounting for 96% market share; albeit with “only” a 48%
AY
share in overall spirits
C
3. Philippine spirits industry has been growing by 6% annually
)
(c

“What will the company look like in 5 years?”
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U
“Will it be able to sustain its strong growth historically?”
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AY
) C
(c

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) C
(c
Ironically, sometimes it is easier to predict

what will happen in 5 years time

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C
)
(c

Consider what the Market is Pricing In (Step 5)
Ultimately, EVERYTHING is relative to EXPECTATIONS
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“Happiness is equal to REALITY minus EXPECTATIONS”
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AY
)C
(c

Consider what the Market is Pricing In (Step 5)
Ultimately, EVERYTHING is relative to EXPECTATIONS
M
Ways to gauge market expectations:
L U
1. Broker reports
AY
2. Assumptions; earnings forecasts; target prices
3. Company guidance
)C
4. Current valuations
(c
5. Price action (technical analysis)

Valuation Basics
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C)
VALUING COMPANIES
(c

Valuation Basics
Estimate of the value of a stock

– Not an exact science
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– Relies heavily on both explicit & implicit assumptions
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– More as guides rather than as absolutes
L
AY
) C
Nothing is 100% certain!
(c

Valuation Methods
Absolute valuation
M
– Discounted cash flow
U
– Net asset value
L
– Intrinsic multiples (matrix)
AY
Relative valuation
C)
(c
– Relative multiples

Relative Valuation
Relative valuation: valuations comparing the price of an

asset to similar or comparable assets
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AY
Use relative multiples as a way of standardizing prices
standardized
)C
– For prices to be comparable, it has to be first
(c

Relative Valuation
Standardizing prices
Lot A Lot B
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Php2,000,000 Price Php10,000,000
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20 sqm Size 200 sqm
Php100,000 C) Price/sqm Php50,000

(c
Implicit assumption: Lots A & B are comparable

Relative Valuation
Stock A Stock B
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Php40/sh Price Php2400/sh
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Php2/sh Earnings Php160/sh
20X C) P/E 15X

(c
Implicit assumption: Stocks A & B are comparable

Relative Valuation
Lot A Lot B
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Php2,000,000 Price Php10,000,000
L
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20 sqm Size 200 sqm
Php100,000 C) Price/sqm Php50,000

(c
Fort Location Cavite

Relative Valuation
Stocks A & B are both priced at Php100/sh
M
L U
2016 EPS 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
AY
Stock A 5 10 20 40 80 160
Stock B 10
C
)12 14 17 21 25
(c
P/E Stock A = 20X

Stock B = 10X

Relative Valuation
Stock A Stock B
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Php40/sh Price Php2400/sh
L
AY
Php2/sh Earnings Php160/sh
20X C) P/E 15X

(c
25% Growth 12%

Valuation Summary
Absolute valuation: COL rating and target prices
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Note that valuations are just estimates
U
– Buy below prices should be used
L
AY
Note that the higher the growth, the more uncertainty
C
– Qualitative factors and TA become more important
)
(c

Valuation Summary
2 sides of Fundamental Analysis

1. Quantitative (Numbers)
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2. Qualitative (Story)
L U
AY
Ideally, numbers & story go hand in hand.
However, stories usually come first
)C
(c
While analysts/investors wait for numbers to confirm, the

market is already pricing it in

Fundamentals and Technicals
M
L U
AY
C
LINKING FUNDAMENTALS AND
)
(c
TECHNICALS

Price Action and Fundamentals
Fundamentals and the long term price action are

always interrelated
M
U
1. Fundamentals can guide you on how the share price
L
would most likely behave
AY
C
2. Price action can indicate the quality of the
)
fundamentals of a company
(c

200-Day Moving Average
Computed as the average closing price over last 200

trading days (roughly 1 year)
M
U
General indication of the overall health of the prices
L
AY
Overlaps with the annual cycle of earnings
) C
(c
Prices below 200-day could mean that there is
something fundamentally wrong

200-Day Moving Average - PGOLD
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AY
) C
(c

200-Day Moving Average - PGOLD
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AY
C
Announced weaker than
)
expected earnings
(c

200-Day Moving Average - DNL
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AY
)C
(c

200-Day Moving Average - DNL
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Earnings starting to miss
U
estimates
L
AY
) C
(c

200-Day Moving Average - ICT
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AY
)C
(c

200-Day Moving Average - ICT
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L U
Slight miss in estimates
AY
C
China devalues currency
)
(c
Poor numbers come out

Understanding Disappointments
Sometimes, good companies can also go through

difficult times
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- solid long term outlook but with temporary issues
L U
AY
Important to identify and understand the reason for
the weakness
) C
- key question: “How long will the issue last?”
(c

Understanding Disappointments - CHP
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AY
) C Reports weak earnings
4Q revs down 13% on 8% drop
(c
in volume and 5% drop in price

Understanding Disappointments - JFC
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)C Reports sharp increase in
(c
operating expenses

M
Thank you.
LU
AY
C)
(c
CHARLES WILLIAM ANG, CFA | MT101 Instructor

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction for Professionals

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MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

CHARLES WILLIAM ANG, CFA | MT101 Instructor

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

1. Is this the right place to be investing in?

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Stocks outperform all asset classes!

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Stocks outperform all asset classes!

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Key is investing over the long term

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

In theory, fair price should track earnings trend

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

In reality, price is also affected by other things –

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Knowing earnings trend is important; but not enough

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

1Q15: up 19% 1H16: up 16%

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

It is the market (not the fundamentals, nor you) who

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Emotions are inevitable

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Source: Psychological Crowd Profile Analysis by James E. Schildgen

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Cycles are a demonstration of human frailties.

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Knowing where you are in the Stock Market Cycle

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Appraising market conditions

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

What do you think are general

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

China (2009 – 2013)

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

However, some risks will always remain

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Market Timing: Long-term outlook, short-term execution

Fundamentals: Screening for solid companies

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Executive course program:

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

What does it mean when you own a stock?

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

The value of a share is determined by how well the

MT101 | Market Timing Introduction

Fundamental Analysis: study of all factors that affect the