CONFIDENTIAL

Economic crisis, origins & impact

18 May 2010

Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Managing Director

Head of Global Equities and Alternatives Research

1
The several steps of the current crisis

Stage 1 house prices start to fall

Stage 2 delinquency rate in subprime mortgages rises

Stage 3 Investors suffer from losses and investment

banks have to write down

Stage 4 Banks reduce their balance sheets

Stage 5 forced deleveraging of hedge funds

Stage 6 break-down of credit market

Stage 7 Impact on real economy

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
2
How did we get into the current crisis? Cheap loans and
mortgages ...

Positive expectation for economic growth, low unemployment, re-assuring

analyses by credit rating agencies
Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA
Date: May 2010
3
... and a booming housing market ...
New home sales & Home prices
Index
450 1500

400 S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index

1300
US New One Family Houses Sold (rhs)
350
1100
300
900
250

700
200

150 500

Source: Bloomberg
100 300
1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
4
...eventually came to an end ...

US home sales & home prices

1600 250

1400
200
1200

1000 150

800
100
600
50
400

200 0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
US new home sales (lhs) S&P/Case Shiller Composite 10 (rhs)

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
5
… pushing up default rates rapidly …

US Foreclosures Total US Foreclosures as % of loans

in %
25
400,000

350,000 20

300,000
15

250,000
10
200,000

150,000 5

100,000 0
Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09
50,000
Foreclosures as % of total loans Prime ARM foreclosures as % of total loans
07/05 01/06 07/06 01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 Subprime ARM foreclosures as % of total loans, NSA
US foreclosures

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
6
… leading to large losses for major financial institutions

Losses for financial institutions, in USD bn

1400
1187
1200

1000
800
551
600
Most impacted financial institutions:
400
151 130 118 102 98 97 69 57 57 56
200
41
0

Royal Bank of
Europe

Fannie Mae

Citigroup

Merrill Lynch
Asia

Wachovia

Bank of America
Freddie Mac
Americas

UBS
AIG

JPMorgan
Chase

Scotland
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse
Data as of 11.05.2010

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
7
Analysis of the crisis:
Sharp acceleration after the Lehman collapse...
MSCI World Index
1600

Lehman collapse
1400
AIG rescue
TARP passed
Fed to Buy CP
1200
Bear Stearns rescue
Lowest Philly Fed Business
Concerted rate cuts outlook since 1990
1000
US Unemployment > 10%
G7 & EU summit
Lowest US consumer US IP is down 13% YoY
800 confidence since 1974
US Unemployment at highest level since 1983
TALF announced Profit warnings:
Daimler, SAP, Sony, Apple, EBay,…
600
03/08 06/08 09/08 12/08 03/09 06/09 09/09 12/09 03/10

Banks reduce their Forced HF Credit freeze Impact on real

balance sheets deleveraging economy
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
8
...followed by very tight liquidity conditions in the money market...

Fears on the money market

%
TED spreads, daily
5.0
4.5
4.0
Lehman
3.5
3.0
2.5 Bear Stearns

2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10
USD 3M TED Spread EUR 3M TED Spread
Source: DataStream, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
9
... because the interbank refinancing mechanisms ...

provides funds to
meet requirements

Central Bank
sets reserve requirements

pays interests

Bank A Bank B
Source : Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
10
... got frozen ...

provides funds to
meet requirements

Central Bank
sets reserve requirements
Risks of defaults (What
is on the book? Is it the
next Lehman?)

Bank A Bank B
Source : Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
11
… leading to an urgent need for central banks interventions

provides funds to
meet requirements

Central Bank
sets reserve requirements

Guarantee funds
Injects capital

Bank A Bank B
Source : Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
12
What followed after the financial crisis?

typical recession & sharp

recovery

long-drawn recession &

slow recovery

Depression

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
13
 Typical recession & sharp recovery:
No, headwinds were too strong
ƒ Typical Recession: 6 to 9 months
ƒ Headwinds were too strong: US consumer, unemployment, costs of credit crisis

“The cost of the credit crisis will be over USD 4 trn”

“World economy to shrink by 1.3% this year”
IMF statement, April 2009

14% US personal savings as % of disposable income, 3mma

%
Index
14
11.0

12
10.0

10 ? 9.0

8 8.0

7.0
6

6.0
4
5.0
2
4.0

0
3.0
May 70 May 74 May 78 May 82 May 86 May 90 May 94 May 98 May 02 May 06 May 10
Apr 90 Apr 92 Apr 94 Apr 96 Apr 98 Apr 00 Apr 02 Apr 04 Apr 06 Apr 08 Apr 10
US savings rate (as percentage of disposable income) Average (1970-1990) = 9.2%
US unemployment rate Avg
Last data point: February 2009, Value: 4.2%
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse
Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA
Date: May 2010
14
Depression scenario: Avoided
Demand from Emerging Markets remained firm
YoY % Retail sales
22 EM 8
(proxy)
17

12

2
G3
-3

-8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last data point: 12/2009 Source: IDC, Bloomberg Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
15
Depression scenario: Avoided
Different policy measures today than in the 1930s...

ƒ 1930s: No measure to stabilize the financial system

Î 50% of banks went bankrupt
ƒ 1930: Monetary policy mistakes: interest rate hikes

US interest rates 1930s US interest rates today

4 .5 0
6
4 .3 0
5
4 .1 0

3 .9 0 4
3 .7 0
3
3 .5 0

3 .3 0 2
3 .1 0

2 .9 0
1
2 .7 0
0
2 .5 0
Jan 1931 Jan 1932 01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10

« Prosperity is round the corner » „In the near term, the highest priority is to promote a global economic recovery. The Federal Reserve retains
Herbert Hoover, 1931 powerful policy tools and will use them aggressively to help achieve this objective „ Ben Bernanke, January
2009

Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA
Date: May 2010
16
Depression scenario: Avoided
thanks to stimulus packages

ƒ US 6% of GDP vs. 7% in the New Deal, but only 5 years into the crisis
ƒ Stimulus packages implemented on a global scale

Stimulus packages
560 884
560 884
300

250

200 190

150

100
63

50 30
10
0
India UK Germany Japan China USA

Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA
Date: May 2010
17
… and automatic stabilizers for the economy

ƒ Government sector much larger now than in the 1930s (close to 40% of GDP
vs 9%) Æ higher impact to steer the economy
ƒ In the 1930s only 1 out of 4 unemployed families received unemployment
benefits of $ 2.39 (= $160 in 2008USD)
ƒ US-Unemployment in the 1930 reached 25%

$ 9.60 (= $160 per month in 2008 USD)

Monthly unemployment benefit in New York in 1933, worth a full
appartment rent ...

“Charities should provide for the

unemployed” Herbert Hoover, 1932

Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA
Date: May 2010
18
In the current crisis, unprecedented measures to help
banks have been taken by authorities …
ƒ Bank recapitalizations : AIG, RBS, Hypo Real Estate, Citigroup …

ƒ Guarantee of deposits: Ireland, UK, Germany, France, Australia, …

ƒ Bank loan guarantee: Senior bank debt guarantee worth EUR 400 bn in
Germany, EUR 320 bn in France, USD 200 bn in loan guarantee for consumer
and small business loans in the US, …

ƒ Purchase of bad debt: Fed will purchase as much as USD 600 bn of

mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, PPIP
Î Target: reduce systemic risk, reduce fears of bankruptcy, reassure savers

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
19
As a result, Budget Deficits have grown substantially...

Development of Budget Deficits Budget Deficits in Europe

% of GDP
in % of GDP
4.0
0
2.0 -2
-4
0
-6
-2.0 -8
-10
-4.0
-12
Maastricht criteria -3%
-6.0 -14
Eurozone EU-15 -16
-8.0 EU-25 US

Hungary

UK
Finland

Spain

Ireland
Italy
Austria
Bulgaria

Latvia
Lithuania
Cyprus
Poland
Estonia

Slovakia
Belgium
Sweden

France

Portugal
Germany
Luxembour

Malta

Romania
Denmark

Slovenia
Netherlands

Czech

Greece
-10.0
2000

2003

2006

2009
1999

2001
2002

2004
2005

2007
2008

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
20
...and government debt in developed markets has risen

% of GDP
120
Advanced
economies
100

80

60

40 Emerging
markets
20
Forecast
0
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Source: IMF WEO October 2009, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA
Date: May 2010
21
...leading to the current sovereign debt crisis in Europe

Total refinancing need estimates 2010 (bn EUR)

100
90
80
Ireland
70
Greece
60
Spain
50 Portugal
40 Italy
30
20
10
-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Bloomberg, Dealogic, OECD, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA
Date: May 2010
22
...and making austerity measures necessary

The Greek Austerity measures: Cut EUR 30 bn over 3 years

ƒ Pay Cuts for public sector workers
ƒ Pension Reforms
ƒ Tax Reforms
ƒ Privatizations

And also in other countries announced drastic measures

Merkel: „Bring national

UK: save EUR 7 bn this year Spain: 5% cut in civil service pay finances in order“

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
23
Will fiscal austerity damage the recovery?
Contribution to change in aggregate Euro area primary balance
over 2009 - 2010 as % of 2009 GDP (2010E deficit in brackets)

0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.4% -0.6% -0.7%

Euro area (-3.9%)

Germany (-2.8%)

France (-5.9%)

Netherlands (-4%)

Portugal (-4.6%)

Italy (-0.5%)

Ireland (-10.8%)

Greece (-5.1%)

Spain (-7.4%)

Primary deficit falling, Primary deficit increasing,

contractionary policies expansionary policies
Source: OECD, Datastream, Credit Suisse
Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA
Date: May 2010
24
Global trade and IP momentum remain strong
25% Global trade growth (3m/3m ann, %)
15%
5%
-5%
-15%
-25%
-35%
-45%
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
15% Global industrial production growth (3m/3m ann, %)
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA
Date: May 2010
25
Survey data: new orders
Index PMI New Orders
70
US
60 Eurozone
50
Japan

40
30
20
10
Feb-06 Nov-06 Aug-07 May-08 Feb-09 Nov-09
Last data point: 4/2010 Source: PMI Premium, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Index PMI New Orders

65 India
China
55 Brazil
Russia
45

35

25
Feb-06 Nov-06 Aug-07 May-08 Feb-09 Nov-09
Last data point: 4/2010 Source: PMI Premium, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
26
...suggesting that the global economy will further improve
Index (Jan '06 = 100)
125

120

115

110

105

100 Forecast

95
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

Source: Credit Suisse IB

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
27
Our long term growth forecasts remain solid,
mainly on EM
GDP and inflation forecasts

GDP Inflation GDP Inflation

Country / region 2010 2011 2010 2011 Country / region 2010 2011 2010 2011
Global 4.2 4.5 3.1 3.3 Non-Japan Asia 7.8 8.1 4.1 4.5
G-3 2.5 2.4 1.3 1.0 China 9.5 9.8 3.5 4.5
BRIC 8.6 9.0 5.8 5.9 Hong Kong 5.7 5.3 2.5 3.0
EM-8 7.8 8.0 5.1 5.2 India (fiscal year) 8.2 8.5 8.0 6.5
USA 3.5 2.8 2.2 1.2 Indonesia 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.0
Canada 3.0 3.4 1.4 2.1 South Korea 6.0 5.5 2.6 2.5
Eurozone 1.5 2.1 1.1 1.3 Singapore 4.5 4.9 3.5 4.0
Germany 2.2 2.6 0.5 0.8 Thailand 4.1 4.8 2.8 3.2
Italy 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.5 CEE & Russia 3.1 4.4 7.0 6.5
France 1.9 2.4 1.5 1.6 Poland 2.4 3.5 2.0 2.0
Spain 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 Russia 3.1 5.0 8.5 8.0
United Kingdom 1.4 2.7 2.3 1.4 Turkey 4.5 4.5 7.5 6.5
Norway 2.5 3.4 2.5 2.0 Latin America 4.2 3.7 6.4 7.2
Sweden 1.0 2.7 1.6 2.8 Argentina 3.5 3.0 8.0 10.0
Switzerland 0.9 2.0 0.8 1.0 Brazil 5.5 4.5 4.5 5.0
Japan-Pacific 2.1 2.1 -0.5 0.2 Mexico 4.0 3.0 5.0 3.5
Japan 1.9 1.8 -1.2 -0.4 Middle East & Africa 4.5 5.0 5.7 5.7
Australia 3.3 3.8 2.5 2.9 GCC 4.8 4.9 3.5 4.1
New Zealand 2.7 3.3 2.2 2.1 South Africa 2.7 4.0 5.7 6.7

G-3: EMU, Japan, USA. EM-8: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and South Africa.
GCC: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. Regional figures are PPP-weighted. Source: Credit Suisse. 07 April 2010.

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC

Last data point: 10.05.2010

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
28
Key points

ƒ The US real estate & credit crisis has spread to the world
ƒ A key accelerating factor was triggered by the Lehman bankruptcy
ƒ The world entered a long-drawn recession, but depression avoided
ƒ Recovery is taking place at different paces in developed markets and
emerging markets

ƒ Budget Deficits and Government Debt increased in developed markets

as a result of the measures taken to avoid a depression.

ƒ Austerity measures become necessary

ƒ Long-term global growth outlook still intact, mainly on EM

Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
29
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Produced by: Lars Kalbreier, CFA

Date: May 2010
31