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Detecting false financial statements using published data: some evidence from Greece
Charalambos T. Spathis,
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Charalambos T. Spathis, (2002) "Detecting false financial statements using published data: some evidence from Greece",
Managerial Auditing Journal, Vol. 17 Issue: 4, pp.179-191, https://doi.org/10.1108/02686900210424321
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Charalambos T. Spathis
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Economics,
Division of Business Administration, Thessaloniki, Greece
.
Abstract are increasingly frequent over the last few
This paper examines published years. Falsifying financial statements listed on the Athens Stock Exchange and
data to develop a model for the raising of capital through public
detecting factors associated with
primarily consists of manipulating elements
by overstating assets, sales and profit, or offering; and
false financial statements (FFS).
Most false financial statements in understating liabilities, expenses, or losses.
. attempts to reduce the level of taxation on
Greece can be identified on the profits.
When a financial statement contains
basis of the quantity and content
of the qualifications in the reports falsifications so that its elements no longer The year 2000 has been very difficult for the
filed by the auditors on the represent the true picture, we speak of fraud. Greek stock market, which has suffered from
accounts. A sample of a total of Management fraud can be defined as stagnation both in terms of share prices and
76 firms includes 38 with FFS and
``deliberate fraud committed by management liquidity. This fact, along with the recent
38 non-FFS. Ten financial
variables are selected for that injures investors and creditors through pervasive record of false financial
examination as potential misleading financial statements'' (Eliott and statements, increased the interest of the
predictors of FFS. Univariate and Willingham, 1980). For Wallace (1995), fraud authorities, stock market, Ministry of the
multivariate statistical techniques Economy and the banking sector in early-
such as logistic regression are is ``a scheme designed to deceive; it can be
used to develop a model to identify accomplished with fictitious documents and warning systems. In this context, the absence
factors associated with FFS. The representations that support fraudulent of a Greek study on the subject is striking.
model is accurate in classifying
financial statements''. This paper intends to address this need in the
the total sample correctly with existing literature. For this purpose,
accuracy rates exceeding 84 per The International Federation of
cent. The results therefore Accountants issued in 1982 the International univariate and multivariate statistical tools
demonstrate that the models were employed to investigate the usefulness
Statement of Auditing (ISA) No. 11: Fraud
function effectively in detecting of publicly available variables for detecting
FFS and could be of assistance to
and Error and explains that the
FFS. A total of ten variables were found to be
auditors, both internal and characteristic which differentiates error
possible indicators of FFS. These include the
external, to taxation and other from fraud is intent. Errors result from
state authorities and to the ratios: debt to equity, sales to total assets, net
unintentional actions (Colbert, 2000). The
banking system. profit to sales, accounts receivable to sales,
American Institute of Certified Public net profit to total assets, working capital to
Accountants (AICPA) (1983) in Statement on total assets, gross profit to total assets,
Auditing Standards (SAS) No. 47 notes that inventory to sales, total debt to total assets,
``error refers to unintentional misstatements and financial distress (Z-score). Using
or omissions of amounts or disclosures in the stepwise logistic regression, two models were
financial statements''. SAS No. 82 (AICPA, developed with a high probability of
1997) reiterates the idea that fraud is an detecting FFS in a sample. The models
intentional act, and fraud frequently includes include the variables: the inventories to sales
the perpetrator(s) feeling pressure or having ratio, the ratio of total debt to total assets, the
an incentive to commit fraud and also working capital to total assets ratio, the net
perceiving an opportunity to do so. Fraud profit to total assets ratio, and financial
and white-collar crime has reached epidemic distress (Z-score).
proportions in the USA. Some estimates The paper is organised as follows: the
suggest that fraud costs US business more second section reviews research on false
Managerial Auditing Journal than $400 billion annually (Wells, 1997). financial statements carried out up to now.
17/4 [2002] 179±191 The third section underlines the
# MCB UP Limited methodologies employed, the variables, the
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at
[ISSN 0268-6902] method and the sample data used in the
[DOI 10.1108/02686900210424321] http://www.emeraldinsight.com/0268-6902.htm
present study. The fourth section describes
[ 179 ]
Charalambos T. Spathis the empirical results and discussion obtained nearly 40 per cent of the companies,
Detecting false financial using univariate tests and multivariate authorizations for votes by proxy
statements using published
data: some evidence from logistic regression analysis. Finally, in the provided evidence of family relationships
Greece fifth section come the concluding remarks. among the directors and/or officers. The
Managerial Auditing Journal founder and current CEO were the same
17/4 [2002] 179±191 person or the original CEO/President was
Previews research still in place in nearly half of the
companies.
Characteristics of FFS . Severe consequences resulted when
No one knows how many business failures
companies commit fraud, including
are actually caused by fraud, but undeniably
bankruptcy, significant changes in
lots of businesses, especially small firms, go
ownership, and suspension from trading
bankrupt each year due to fraud losses. In the
in national exchanges.
USA incidences of fraud cut across all
industries with greatest losses apparent Most techniques for manipulating profits can
(fraud losses by industry) in real estate be grouped into three broad categories ±
financing, manufacturing, banking, oil and changing accounting methods, fiddling with
gas, construction, and in health care (Wells, managerial estimates of costs, and shifting
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1997). Losses can occur in almost any area, the period when expenses and revenues are
certainly not just in cash areas. Losses in included in results (Worthy, 1984). Other
cash actually represent the lowest level of false statements include manipulating
fraud. Accounts receivable, expenditures for documents, altering test documents, and
services, and inventory losses are each three producing false work reports (Comer, 1998).
times higher than those in cash. Fraud is not For example, recording revenue on
just a problem in large firms. Small shipments after year-end by backdating
businesses with 1-100 employees are also shipment documents. Asset
susceptible. This is a serious problem misappropriation schemes include the theft
because fraud in a small firm has a greater of company assets e.g. cash and inventory.
impact, as the firm does not have the The study of Vanasco (1998) examines the
resources to absorb the loss (Wells, 1997). In a role of professional associations,
global economy and multinational trade, the governmental agencies, and international
trend of international fraud affects all accounting and auditing bodies in
countries (Vanasco, 1998). promulgating standards to prevent fraud in
A report by the Committee of Sponsoring financial statements and other white-collar
Organizations of the Treadway Commission crimes. It also examines several fraud cases.
(COSO) compiled by Beasley et al. (1999) The cases examined show that the cash,
examined fraudulent financial reporting inventory, and related party transactions are
from 1987-1997 by US public companies. Some prone to fraud. Auditors assign a high-risk
of the most critical insights of the study are: index to the potential misappropriation of
. The companies committing fraud inventory, cash defalcation, and conflict of
generally were small, and most (78 per interest. Typical financial statement fraud
cent of the sample) were not listed in the techniques involved the overstatement of
New York or American Stock Exchanges. revenues and assets (Beasley et al., 1999).
. Incidences of fraud went to the very top of Over half the frauds involved overstating
the organisations concerned. In 72 per revenues by recording revenues prematurely
cent of the cases, the CEO appeared to be or fictitiously. Many of those revenue frauds
associated with the fraud, and in 43 per only affected transactions recorded right at
cent the CEO was associated with the the end of significant financial reporting
financial statement fraud. periods (i.e. quarter-end or year-end). About
. The audit committees and boards of the half the frauds also involved overstating
respective companies appeared to be assets by understating allowances for
weak. Most audit committees rarely met, receivables, overstating the value of
and the companies' boards of directors inventory, property, plant and equipment
were dominated by insiders and others and other tangible assets, and recording
outsiders ``grey'' directors, with assets that did not exist.
significant equity ownership and Fraudulent statements are the most costly
apparently little experience of serving as schemes per case. In spite of being the most
directors of other companies. A total of 25 common and the smallest loss per case, asset
per cent of the companies did not have an misappropriation presents in total the largest
audit committee. losses of the categories. Fraudulent
. The founders and board members owned a statements, on the other hand, have the
significant portion of the companies. In lowest total losses. Corporate falsification
[ 180 ]
Charalambos T. Spathis can also be classified as the committed by study, Matsumura and Tucker (1992) discuss
Detecting false financial insiders for the company (violation of an extensive theoretical foundation of
statements using published government regulations, i.e. tax, securities, auditor/manager strategic interaction. This
data: some evidence from
Greece safety and environmental laws). Senior study investigates the effects of the following
Managerial Auditing Journal managers might perpetrate financial variables:
17/4 [2002] 179±191 statement falsifications to deceive investors . auditor's penalty;
and lenders or to inflate profits and thereby . auditing standard requirements;
gain higher salaries and bonuses. Higson . the quality of the internal control
(1999) analysed the results of 13 interviews structure; and
with senior auditors/forensic accountants on . audit fee.
whether their clients report suspected fraud
The interaction between manager and
to an external authority. Although some
auditor is examined with fraud as the focus.
companies do report it, quite a number seem
The model encompasses all irregularities,
reticent about reporting. There appear to be
which it categorises into two types: fraud
three contributing factors:
(misrepresentation of fact) and defalcations
1 the imprecision of the word ``fraud'';
(misappropriation of assets). For a strategy
2 the vagueness of directors'
with reference to auditing and fraud, Morton
responsibilities; and
(1993) notes that auditors often use sampling
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there is a shortage of knowledge concerning stock through high levels of selling activity
the characteristics of management fraud. as measured by either the number of
Second, given its infrequency, most auditors transactions, the number of shares sold, or
lack the experience necessary to detect it. the dollar amount of shares sold. Beneish
Finally, managers are deliberately trying to (1999) investigates the incentives and the
deceive the auditors (Fanning and Cogger, penalties related to earnings overstatements
1998). For such managers, who understand primarily in firms that are subject to
the limitations of an audit, standard auditing accounting enforcement actions by the
procedures may be insufficient. These Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
limitations suggest the need for additional He finds that the managers are likely to sell
analytical procedures for the effective their holdings and exercise stock
detection of management fraud. appreciation rights in the period when
earnings are overstated, and that the sales
occur at inflated prices. The evidence
` ... Auditors using the expert system exhibited the ability to suggests that the monitoring of managers'
discriminate better among situations with varying levels of trading behaviour can be informative about
management fraud risk and made more consistent decisions the likelihood of earnings overstatement.
regarding appropriate audit actions.... ' Eilifsen et al. (1999) and Hellman (1999)
analyse the link between the calculation of
taxable income and accounting income
Recent work has attempted to build models to influences on the incentive to manipulate
predict the presence of management fraud. earnings, as well as the demand for
Results from logit regression analysis of 75 regulation and verification of both financial
fraud and 75 no-fraud firms indicate that statements and tax accounts. Abbot et al.
no-fraud firms have boards with significantly (2000) examine and measure the audit
higher percentages of outside members than committee independence and activity in
fraud firms (Beasley, 1996). Hansen et al. mitigating the likelihood of fraud. Using the
(1996) use a powerful generalized qualitative- logistic regression analysis they find that
response model to predict management fraud firms with audit committees which are
based on a set of data developed by an composed of independent directors and
international public accounting firm. The which meet at least twice per year are less
model includes the probit and logit likely to be sanctioned for fraudulent or
techniques. An experiment was conducted to misleading reporting.
examine the use of an expert system Prior work in this field has examined
developed to enhance the performance of several variables related to data from audit
auditors (Eining et al., 1997). Auditors using work papers and from financial statements,
the expert system exhibited the ability to with various techniques, for their usefulness
discriminate better among situations with in detecting management fraud (Fanning
varying levels of management fraud risk and et al., 1995). In this study, we examine in-
made more consistent decisions regarding depth publicly available data from firms'
appropriate audit actions. Green and Choi financial statements for detecting FFS.
(1997) presented the development of a neural Greece has entered the new millennium
network fraud classification model with a very positive economic picture despite
employing endogenous financial data. A some underlying structural inflation, and a
[ 182 ]
Charalambos T. Spathis stable social and political environment. In purposes and other qualifications. The
Detecting false financial June 2000, the leaders of the member states of classification of a financial statement as false
statements using published the European Union agreed to accept Greece was based on:
data: some evidence from
Greece as a member of the Economic and Currency . the inclusion in the auditors' reports of
Managerial Auditing Journal Union. Greek enterprises continue to make opinions of serious doubt as to the
17/4 [2002] 179±191 progress in profitability and efficiency. The correctness of accounts;
improvement in capital ratios, the increase . the observations by the tax authorities
in investment, the significant increase in regarding serious taxation
profits and the return on capital are just intransigencies which seriously alter the
some of the indicators which make those company's annual balance sheet and
involved in Greek industries feel much more income statement;
optimistic than they did a few years ago. The . the application of Greek legislation
year 2000 has been very difficult for the regarding negative net worth;
Greek Stock Market, which has suffered from . inclusion of the company in the Athens
stagnation both in terms of share prices and Stock Exchange categories of ``under
liquidity. This fact, along with the recent observation'' and ``negotiation suspended''
pervasive record of false financial for reasons associated with falsification of
statements, increased the interest of the the company's financial data; and
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GRD ($2.432 million, £1.657 million) (t 2:547, likelihood of FFS since it shifts the risk from
p < 0:000). Similarly a significant difference equity owners and managers to debt owners.
can be observed in average working capital Research suggests that the potential for
between FFS firms with 369 million GRD wealth transfer from debt holders to
($1.003 million, £683,000), and non-FFS firms managers increases as leverage increases
with 2,281 million GRD ($6.198 million, £4.224 (Chow and Rice, 1982). Management may
million) (t 2:457, p < 0:05). Mean equity also manipulate financial statements, given the
gives a statistically significant difference need to meet certain debt covenants. This
between FFS firms and non-FFS firms with suggests that higher levels of debt may
2,474 million GRD ($6.723 million, £4.581 increase the probability of FFS. This is
million), and 6,206 million GRD respectively measured through the difference in the ratio
($16.864 million, £11.492 million) (t 1:686, of debt to equity (DEBT/EQ) and total debt to
p < 0:010). With regard to inventories, total assets (TD/TA).
although mean value for FFS firms is 1,036 There are certain financial statements that
million GRD ($2.815 million, £1.918 million), are more likely to be manipulated by
and 1,859 million GRD ($5.051 million, £3.442 management. These variables include sales,
million) for non-FFS firms, the difference is accounts receivable, allowance for doubtful
not statistically significant (t 1:420, accounts and inventory (Shilit, 1993; Green,
p < 0:160). 1991; Loebbecke et al., 1989; Wright and
Ashton, 1989). The subjective nature of the
Variables judgements involved with these accounts
The variables in this study come from many makes them more difficult to audit. Persons
sources. To find variables, prior work on the (1995), Schilit (1993), Stice (1991), Green (1991)
topic of FFS was carefully considered. Such and Feroz et al. (1991) suggest that
work as that of Green and Choi (1997), management may manipulate accounts
Hoffman (1997), Hollman and Patton (1997), receivable. The fraudulent activity of
Zimbelman (1997), Beasley (1996), Bologna et recording sales before they are earned may
al. (1996), Arens and Loebbecke (1994), Bell et show as additional account receivable. We
al. (1993), Schilit (1993), Davia et al. (1992), tested this by considering the ratio of account
Green (1991), Stice (1991), Loebbecke et al. receivable to sales (REC/SAL) (Fanning and
(1989), Palmrose (1987), and Albrecht and Cogger, 1998; Green, 1991; Daroca and Holder,
Romney (1986) contained suggested 1985). Accounts receivable and inventory
indicators of FFS. Initially, a set of 17 depend on the subjective judgement involved
financial ratios was formed. However, to in estimating uncollected accounts and
avoid ratios providing the same information obsolete inventory. Because subjective
due to high correlations, it was decided to judgement is involved in determining the
exclude highly correlated ratios, while value of these accounts, management may
retaining ratios describing all aspects of use these accounts as tools for financial
financial performance, including statement manipulation (Summers and
profitability, solvency/liquidity and Sweeney, 1998). Loebbecke et al. (1989) found
managerial performance (Courtis, 1978). that the inventory account and accounts
Except for the correlation analysis, the receivable were involved in 22 per cent and
statistical significance of the financial ratios 14 per cent, respectively, of frauds in their
was also considered through t-tests. This sample.
[ 184 ]
Charalambos T. Spathis Many researchers such as Vanasco (1998), control environment, a condition that
Detecting false financial Persons (1995), Schilit (1993) and Stice (1991) allows the perpetration of a fraud (AICPA,
statements using published also suggest that management may
data: some evidence from 1997). Loebbecke et al. (1989) found that 19
Greece manipulate inventories. The company may per cent of the fraud companies in their
Managerial Auditing Journal not match sales with the corresponding cost sample were experiencing solvency
17/4 [2002] 179±191 of goods sold, thus increasing gross margin, problems.
net income and strengthening the balance Therefore, we use the Altman (1968, 1983) Z-
sheet. Another type of manipulation score as a control variable to investigate the
involves reporting inventory at lower than association of FFS and financial distress. The
cost or market value. The company may use of the Z-score is accompanied by some
choose not to record the right amount of limitations, as was its use 30 years ago to
obsolete inventory. Consequently, the ratio develop a corporate failure prediction model
of inventory to sales is considered (INV/ for the US manufacturing sector. It is
SAL). Another issue examined in this nevertheless still used today in many studies
research is whether higher or lower gross (Summers and Sweeney, 1998). With regards
margins are related to the issuing of FFS. to Greek companies, despite the fact that a
For this purpose, the ratio of gross profit to number of researchers have looked at
total assets is used (GP/TA). bankruptcy, a generally accepted model has
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book value of total debt and present liquidity problems such that
1:0
sales=total assets: they cannot meet their obligations. Low WC
is associated with financial distress
The models will classify firms into FFS and according to the bibliography (Bonner et al.,
non-FFS categories based upon financial 1998).
statement ratios that have been documented FFS firms seem to have on average both a
as diagnostic in prior studies. higher TD/TA and DEBT/EQ. The higher
debt to equity, the lower sales to total assets
and the Z-score values for the FFS firms may
indicate that many firms issuing FFS were in
Results and discussion financial distress (Fanning and Cogger, 1998;
Table II reports the mean values, standard Summers and Sweeney, 1998). This could
deviation and t-tests of ratios for non-FFS and provide the motivation for management
FFS firms. The univariate tests suggest fraud. The ability to manipulate the values in
several variables may by helpful in detecting accounts receivable (REC/SAL) was clearly
FFS. The large differences in average values reflected in the results (t 1:356, p < 0:179).
This is a very difficult area due to the
subjective nature of estimating accounts
Table II receivable. These results suggest that
Tests for the differences in the means of each group additional time is necessary for auditing
Mean Std dev. Sig. accounts receivable. The INV/SAL indicated
Variables Non-false False Non-false False t-test (two-tailed) that those firms with FFS keep high
inventories and cost of goods sold.
DEBT/EQ 1.075 2.705 0.937 3.351 ±2.750 0.007
The univariate tests provide valuable
SAL/TA 1.055 0.699 0.576 0.416 3.087 0.003
NP/SAL 0.067 ±0.459 0.159 2.434 1.329 0.188 information regarding a large number of
REC/SAL 0.456 1.755 0.349 5.897 ±1.356 0.179 variables over a sample. While some of the
NP/TA 0.074 ±0.021 0.064 0.095 5.110 0.000 suggested variables were not statistically
WC/TA 0.252 0.054 0.205 0.238 3.892 0.000 significant in this study, the results should
GP/TA 0.274 0.144 0.140 0.121 4.333 0.000 be viewed cautiously. This study examined
INV/SAL 0.179 0.359 0.158 0.656 ±1.643 0.105 these variables at the aggregate level on one
TD/TA 0.437 0.629 0.196 0.242 ±3.783 0.000 sample and generalizations to specific cases
Z 1.990 0.778 0.730 0.936 6.292 0.000 should be made with care. Every instance of
falsification of financial statements is an
Notes: individual case and the variables not
DEBT/EQ: debt/equity
SAL/TA: sales/total assets significant in the aggregate may still be
NP/SAL: net profit/sales useful indicators for a particular case.
REC/SAL: receivable/sales Consequently the aim was to develop a model
NP/TA: net profit/total assets with variables which auditors can find
WC/TA: working capital/total assets useful. While several of these were good
GP/TA gross profit/total assets predictors in this study, they lacked the
INV/TA: inventories/total assets ability to transfer to other samples. Ratios
TD/TA: total debt/total assets
allow better generalization and are easily
Z: Z-score
derived from published financial statements,
[ 186 ]
Charalambos T. Spathis and they have been used in the model classified with FFS firms. NP/TA has an
Detecting false financial development. increased probability of being classified with
statements using published There were ten possible variables in this FFS firms (b 33:029, p < 0:000) and this
data: some evidence from
Greece study with the results of the univariate tests. ratio has a significant negative effect. That
Managerial Auditing Journal The next step in securing a model was the means that firms with high net profit to total
17/4 [2002] 179±191 application of multivariate testing with assets have an increased probability of being
stepwise logistic regression. The univariate classified with the non-FFS firms. The same
results were informative but there was the strong effect of being classified with the FFS
question of whether the association was a firms' group appears to exist for the working
direct association or whether there was a capital to total assets ratio (b 6:878,
joint correlation with a third variable. A p < 0:003). This ratio has a significant
univariate test does not allow detection of negative effect, meaning that firms with
interaction effects which multivariate tests increased WC/TA ratio have an increased
may find. This study used model (1) with nine probability of being classified with the non-
variables (without Z scores) and model (2) FFS firms. That means that non-FFS firms
with ten variables, Z score included. have higher WC/TA values.
Table III reports the results for the Table IV reports the results for the
stepwise logistic regression for model (1), stepwise logistic regression for model (2) ±
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without Z scores. According to the results, with the Z score. According to the results the
the overall per cent of correct classification, overall per cent of correct classification, by
by means of the proposed model, is 82.89 per means of the proposed model, is 84.21 per
cent. This implies that 30 (78.95 per cent) out cent. This implies that 32 (84.21 per cent) out
of the 38 non-FFS firms and 33 (86.84 per cent) of the 38 non-FFS firms and 32 (84.21 per cent)
out of the 38 FFS firms were classified of the 38 FFS firms were classified correctly.
correctly. The relationship between the The relationship between the dependent ±
dependent ± non-FFS and FFS firms ± and the non-FFS and FFS firms ± and the
independent variables is statistically independent variables is statistically
significant (2 50:539, p < 0:000). The significant (2 54:487, p < 0:000). The
association strength between the dependent association strength between the dependent
and independent variables is R2L 0:480, and independent variables is R2L 0:517,
indicating a medium-efficient strong indicating a medium-efficient strong
relationship. relationship slightly higher than for
The results indicate that only three model (1).
variables with significant coefficients The results indicate that only three
entered the model. These ratios are: INV/ variables with significant coefficients
SAL, NP/TA, WC/TA. The ratio INV/SAL entered the model. These ratios are: INV/
has an increased probability of being SAL, TD/TA, Z score. INV/SAL has an
classified with FFS firms (b 2:252, p < 0:097) increased probability of being classified with
and this ratio has a positive effect. This FFS firms (b 2:659, p < 0:005) and this ratio
implies that firms with high inventories to has a positive effect. This implies that firms
sales have an increased probability of being with high inventories to sales are more likely
[ 187 ]
Charalambos T. Spathis to be classified as FFS. The ratio TD/TA has research (Loebbecke et al., 1989; Summers
Detecting false financial an increased probability of being classified and Sweeney, 1998; Beasley et al., 1999).
statements using published
data: some evidence from with FFS firms (b 6:685, p < 0:005) and this
Greece ratio has a significant positive effect. That
Managerial Auditing Journal means that firms with high total debt to total Concluding remarks
17/4 [2002] 179±191 assets values have an increased probability
The primary objective of this study has been
of being classified with the FFS group. The
the development of a reliable false financial
same strong effect of being classified with
statement detection model for Greek firms. In
FFS firms appears to be attributed to the Z
order to achieve this goal we used a sample of
score (b 3:327, p < 0:000). This ratio has a
FFS and non-FFS firms. We used univariate
significant negative effect, meaning that
and multivariate statistical techniques such
firms with increased Z score values have
as logistic regression to develop a model to
increased probability of being classified with
identify factors associated with FFS. A total
the non-FFS firms. That means that non-FFS
of ten financial ratios are selected for
firms have higher Z scores.
examination as potential predictors of FFS.
In both models, the ratio indicated as an
These variables appeared to be important in
important variable is INV/SAL,
prior research and constitute ratios derived
demonstrating that FFS firms keep higher
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[ 189 ]
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