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1 GROWTH
2 INFLATION
3 EXCHANGE RATES
4 INTEREST RATES
5 BOND MARKET
2
HIGHLIGHTS
The production index of the industry sector increased by 9.2% over the same period last year, but lower than 10.7% in
2018. GDP growth Q1.2019 is forecasted to vary from 6.74%-6.82%.
FDI enterprises are still the drivers of economic growth but the speed is no longer phenomenal.
Major projects in operation continue to be the bright spot contributing to the growth.
Stable contribution of the agricultural sector.
The growth in aggregate demand for goods and services continues to be maintained.
CPI in May is expected to grow by 0.3% - 0.5% due to the rise of gasoline and electricity prices.
At the end of April, the central exchange rate rose by 0.89% ytd, exchange rates at commercial banks went up slightly at the end
of the month. We believe that exchange rate is vulnerable to upward pressure when global market is surrounded by uncertainties.
However, we still keep VND devaluation against USD at below 2% regarding the reference exchange rates stated by SBV.
Credit growth as at April 17th reached 3.23%. The draft amendment of Circular 36 made a significant impact on our forecast of
deposit rates. VCBS adjusted the forecasts for the increase of deposit interest rates for 2019 to 80 points compared to that of
increasing 50 points at the end of the year as mentioned in the previous reports.
Bond market: Expected that the yields in May as well as in Q2.2019 shall experience minimal change. There is likelihood that
upward pressure on bond yields will heat up in Q3.2019.
56
The processing and manufacturing industry continued to grow by 10.9%, contributing
55
8.3 percentage points to the overall increase, continued to play a leading role.
54
Production of electronic products, computers and optical products increased by 1.9% 53
(same period last year increased by 23.6%). Contribution tends to shift from 52
electronics, phone segments to other segments. 51
50
There is a certain shift in the structure of growth contribution (1) between FDI
49
and other enterprises; (2) among sectors within the same FDI sector.
Industrial production index in 4M.2019 compared to the same period last year
PMI ngành sản xuất (Theo HSBC) Ngưỡng PMI 50
of some provinces with large industrial scale is as follows: Hai Phong (+23%);
Quang Ninh (+13.2%); Vinh Phuc (+12.9%); Hai Duong (+9.5%); Dong Nai
(+7.8%); Quang Nam (+7.7%);
Tn. VND
Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in 350 12
decelerated. 50 7
0 6
Macroeconomc indicators 4M.2019 04/16 08/16 12/16 04/17 08/17 12/17 04/18 08/18 12/18 04/19
Inflation: +0.31% (mom) and +2.69% (yoy) Trade Hotel & Restaurant Services & Tourism Growth rate (%)
Export : USD 78.76 bn ytd (+5.8% yoy)
Import: USD 78.05 bn ytd (+10.4% yoy) Import-Export
22
USD bn
Trade surplus: USD 711 mln (ytd)
17
FDI: Registered value in 4M.2019: USD 7.46 bn (28.6%)
Capital contribution and share purchase: USD 7.14 bn (3.2 times higher than the same 12
period in 2018)
7
Goods turnover of some export items in 4M.2019
2
01/16
03/16
05/16
07/16
09/16
11/16
01/17
03/17
05/17
07/17
09/17
11/17
01/18
03/18
05/18
07/18
09/18
11/18
01/19
03/19
-3
-8
+12.6% yoy +9.8% yoy +13.4% yoy Exports Imports Trade Balance
6%
Public investment expenditure is expected to 5%
break out only in the second half of 2019.
4%
-0,5% -4%
Inflation, although well controlled in Q1.2019,
01/12
04/12
07/12
10/12
01/13
04/13
07/13
10/13
01/14
04/14
07/14
10/14
01/15
04/15
07/15
10/15
01/16
04/16
07/16
10/16
01/17
04/17
07/17
10/17
01/18
04/18
07/18
10/18
01/19
04/19
is still forecasted to be under pressure for the
next 3-6 months, especially in Q3.2019.
CPI (mom) CPI (yoy)
Impact on exchange rates in the coming period Events happen in May Expected effects
Reasonable measures of SBV, flexible coordination of operator's tools Tracking on approach from SBV +
FED considered more carefully about the interest rates lifting procedure Minutes of FED’s meeting in May after the decision +
to keep interest rates unchanged.
US – China and US – EU trade tensions Tariff reactivated when negotiations ended up with _
no deal.
Investment flows continue to choose Vietnam thanks to macroeconomic Data on inflows of FII and FDI. +
stability
reports.
© VCBS Research Department ǀ May - 2019
10
Source: SBV, VCBS Research
BOND MARKET – PRIMARY MARKET
WINNING RATES MOVED SIDEWAYS IN APRIL
50.000 Average issuance tenor
Primary market 15
The volume of issued bonds 40.000 13
13,03
12,41 12,29
5
in April. 0
01/18
02/18
03/18
04/18
05/18
06/18
07/18
08/18
09/18
10/18
11/18
12/18
01/19
02/19
03/19
04/19
3
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 4M.2019
KBNN NHCSXH NHPT
x1.000 VND bn
240
Interbank rates and bond yields increased sharply at the beginning of
180
the month, however declined in the last week of April.
Assessment in May: 120
01/17
03/17
05/17
07/17
09/17
11/17
01/18
03/18
05/18
07/18
09/18
11/18
01/19
03/19
movements with consistent management measures of the SBV. Outright Repo
5,0%
2,0%
4,0%
3,0%
0,0%
01/16
03/16
05/16
07/16
09/16
11/16
01/17
03/17
05/17
07/17
09/17
11/17
01/18
03/18
05/18
07/18
09/18
11/18
01/19
2,0%
01/16
04/16
07/16
10/16
01/17
04/17
07/17
10/17
01/18
04/18
07/18
10/18
01/19
04/19
ON 1W 2W 1M
2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 15Y
This report is designed to provide updated information on the fixed-income, including bonds, interest rates, some
other related. The VCBS analysts exert their best efforts to obtain the most accurate and timely information available
from various sources, including information pertaining to market prices, yields and rates. All information stated in the
report has been collected and assessed as carefully as possible.
It must be stressed that all opinions, judgments, estimations and projections in this report represent independent views
of the analyst at the date of publication. Therefore, this report should be best considered a reference and indicative
only. It is not an offer or advice to buy or sell or any actions related to any assets. VCBS and/or Departments of VCBS
as well as any affiliate of VCBS or affiliate that VCBS belongs to or is related to (thereafter, VCBS), provide no
warranty or undertaking of any kind in respect to the information and materials found on, or linked to the report and
no obligation to update the information after the report was released. VCBS does not bear any responsibility for the
accuracy of the material posted or the information contained therein, or for any consequences arising from its use, and
does not invite or accept reliance being placed on any materials or information so provided.
This report may not be copied, reproduced, published or redistributed for any purpose without the written permission
of an authorized representative of VCBS. Please cite sources when quoting. Copyright 2012 Vietcombank Securities
Company. All rights reserved.