Wind Pattern Recognition in Neural Fuzzy Wind Turbine Control System
Guangdian G. Wu Zhijie Dou
Geocontrol Systems, Inc.
1720 NASA Road One
Houston. Texas 77058
A b s t r a c t - T h i s paper introduces a n e w
approach utilizing a fuzzy classifier and a
modular temporal neural network to predict wind
speed and direction for advanced wind turbine
control systems. The fuzzy classifier estimates
wind patterns and then assigns weights
accordingly to each module of the temporal
neural network. The finite-duration impulse
response multiple-layer structure of the temporal
network makes it possible that a static network
represents the underlying dynamics of physical
phenomena. Using previous wind measurements
and information given by the classifier, the
modular network trained by a standard back-
propagation algorithm predicts wind speed and
direction effectively. Meanwhile, the feedback
from the network helps auto-tuning the
classifier. In general, the principle of this
approach is applicable to nonstationary time
series modeling and prediction problems.
I. INTRODUCIION
The power-generatingemaency of a wind turbine can
be significantly increased if the turbine's operation is
controlled based on the information of wind and wind
changes at the turbine location [l].However, this task is
difficult due to the fact that the wind and wind chauge
patterns vary from location to location,and from time to
time. Different season and weather conditions also
contribute to this complication. For a specific turbine
location. the natural conditions having effects on the
control system include wind intensity, wind direction,
wind duration, wind gradient, diurnal and seasonal
changes, weather changes, and environmental
uncertainties. Meanwhile, these elements are also coupled
with the turbine generator and COMected load conditions.
For conventional wind turbines. the control usually
applies to their start/stop operation. For advanced
turbines, such as pitch-regulated ones or variable speed
ones,the control laws become sophisticated as more state
and control variables present. In general, to achieve
o p t i d or near-optimal control, i.e.. to maximize the
turbine efficiency and minimize the damage to the turbine
hardware due to frequent starts and stops,the knowledge of
real-time in situ information of wind and operational
conditions is a prerequisite. Furthermore. even the surface
pressure and fatigue load on a turbine blade! can be reduced
0-7803-2125-1/94 $4.000 1994 IEEE
Department of Miilhematics, Physical Sciences
and Engineering Technology
West Texas A M University, WT Box 2043
Canyon, Texas 79016
by applying timely control if the wind condition is known
to the controller in advance.
In this paper, we introduce a fuzzy neural network
approach to deal with the wind pattern
recognitiodprediction problems. Since wind speed and
direction are two nonstationary chaotic time series, neural
networks are an appropriate tool to perform
modelinglprediction tasks. To enhance accuracy and
reduce computationalcomplexity. fuzzy logic technique is
suitable for pre-sorting wind measurements into specific
patterns.
11. CHARACIERISTICS OF WIND FIEZDS
The mathematical description of the wind pattern
mgnitionlprediction problem is to find an estimate i (1)
of the wind vector x ( t ) based on the previous n
measurements x(t -Af). x(t -2At). . . . ,x(r -nAf), i.e.,
ii (0 =F[{x}l. (1)
Where
{ U } = {X(t), ~ ( t - A t ) ., . . ,X(t -nAt)}, (2)
and At is the time interval between two measurements.
and two estimates as well.
It is found from the observations of the atmosphere
that the wind flow field is often irregular, either wavy or
turbulent, with the occasional occurrences of extreme
conditions such as hurricanes. Excluding the extreme
conditions. the wind vector x ( t ) is considered to be
composed of a stationary wind u(t)plus fluctuations g(l)
about stationary wind:
x(t) = u(4 + g(0. (3)
Both components are aerodynamic functions. It is noticed
that the average values of I&)l within a time period At are
varying with value changes of At, while lu(t)l remains
independent of values of At. In the study of the energy
spectrum of wind speed fluctuationsin the atmosphere [2],
it was found that the majority of the fluctuating energy is
contained at the macro- and micro-meteorological scales
with a region of low energy gap existing between them.
Reference [3] suggests that the spectral gap for Af between
0.1 to 5 hours defines a convenient range for averaging
period for which a stationary wind cau be referenced. This
implies that for an appropriately chosen A&,we have the
approximation
Z(f) Ti(& (4)
381
where the bar sign denotes the averaging over the time
period ( I - At, t).
For our recognitiodprediction purposes. we want to
choose a time interval At between two estimates such that
(i) a reasonable average value of x ( t ) can be found for that
interval; (ii) the fluctuation energy effects are averaged out
to the minimum extent; and (iii) the interval gives the
turbine control system enough time to adjust hardware
while avoiding high-frequency control maneuvers that
might cause hardware fatigue and control system
instability. Based on these consideration,we choose At =
5 minutes for the work described in this paper.
For clarity, we make a few simplifications: (i) the
wind vector x ( t ) will be replaced with a scalar x(t),
because a vector can be decomposed to its components;
(ii) wind speed measurement and wind direction
measurement will be referred as wind data measurement
x(t), since they parallel in the mathematical description for
fuzzy neural network processing; (iii) only average values
for both wind data x(t) and wind estimates j? (1) will be
used instead of instant values, therefore the bar sign will
be dropped, i.e., we denote
X(l) =q t ) . (9
111. FUZZY N E W W O R K STRUCTURE
As seen in (1). the wind pattern mgnitionlprediction
problem essentially is a nonstationary time series
prediction problem. The complexity of the wind pattern
recognition exists in two aspects, namely: (i) there is no
complete a priori wind information for a specific location.
Hence, the wind patterns are unknown in general; (ii) the
measurement information is accompanied by uncertainties.
The development in neural fuzzy technique provides us an
altemative and possibly better way to tackle this type of
problems.
Fig. 1 is the schematic of the fuzzy neural network
for wind pattern recognition. The network consists of a
fuzzy classifier and a modular temporal neural network.
The wind measurements are stored in a memory unit.
Both the fuzzy pattern classifier and the modular neural
network fetch previous measurements from the memory
unit. The fuzzy classifier estimates wind patterns from
the wind data and their rates and then assigns weights
accordingly to each module of the temporal neural
network. Using previous measurements, each module in
the modular neural network predicts wind speed and
direction without communicating with each other. f i e n ,
their outputs are mediated by an integrating unit that uses
the weights given by the classifier. The underlying
consideration for using modular network is that a modular
network conveniently utilizes wind pattern infomation to
predict wind data more quickly and accurately. The
network is featured by the finite-duration impulseresponse
(FIR) multiple-layer structure which makes it possible
that a static network represents the underlying dynamics of
physical phenomena. Meanwhile,the error feedback from
the modular network helps auto-tuning the classifier.
382
Fig. 1. Fuzzy neural network
IV. FUZZY PATTERN CLASSIFIER
Wind data measurements are a scalar time series
denoted {x},
{x} = {x(t), x(t -At), . . . ,x(t -nAt)}. (6)
Easily, we can derive the changing rate of wind data from
(6)as another time series {r},
{r} = {r(t). r(t -At), . . . ,r(t -nAt)), 0
-
where r(t) = [x(t) x(t -At)] / At, and so on.
Based on the on-site measured wind data at a wind
turbine location. the fuzzy classifier first computes the
total ranges of both {x} and {r}. Then, the total ranges are
scaled and divided into several categories such as NB,NS.
ZE. PS. PB. Thus, a fuzzy d e table can be formed.
Each pair of wind and wind rate measurements will fall
into one of positions on the table, just as in fuzzy control
application cases.
A. Time Averaging
As the first step of constructing the fuzzy classifier,
we decide the number of previous measurements to be
used for recognitiodprediction by making a compromise
between computational complexity and prediction
accuracy. If the number is n , then we use the current
measurement and n previous measurements:
{x} = {x(t). x(t -At), . . . ,x(t -nAt)}, (8)
{r} = {r(t). r(t -At), . . . ,r(t +At)}. (9)
For the numerical experiments of this paper, n = 5.
The average values of {x} and {r} are computed all the
time as the input pair to the fuzzy pattern classifier.
Therefore, there is always a position in the fuzzy rule
table corresponding to the input pair at each time instant.
B. Weight Vector Assignment and Initializatioti
The fuzzy rules the classifier takes are shown in Table
1. The consequences corresponding to the antecedents are
the weight vectors that are to be assigned to the modules
in the temporal neural network. A weight vector takes the
form
-
Wi(O = [wil(Os wiZ(t).. . w i t r ~ ~ I ~ , (10)
where i ranges from 1 to m. the number of patterns. For
the case of Table 1, m = 25. For example, if the average
values of the pair {x} and {r} fall into NS and PS
respectively, the classifier takes w&) as its output.
 TABLE 1
FUZZY RULES AND WEIGHT VECTORS

{r} NB NS ZE PS PI3
{x}
NB WI w2 w3 w4 ws
NS w6 w7 w8 w9 WIO
ZE wll wl2 wl3 w14 WIS
PS w16 w17 wl8 wl9 w20
PB w21 w22 w23 w24 w25

For the initialization, we assign the ith element of Fig. 2. Structure of modular network
wi(0) to be 1. and all the other elements to be zero.

wi(O) = (0, . . ,O,

1.0. . . . (11)
ith
The weight initialization implies that at the very
beginning, each input pair of wind data is an independent
pattern connected to an independent componding module
in the modular neurai network.
C. Auto-Tuning Algorithm
The weight vectors are auto-tuned in the training
stage and during operations by using the information
A. Modular Network
Although a regular multiple-layer network can
conduct prediction job well in many cases, it is more
effective to use a modular network for the wind
mgnitionlprediction task. The rationale for saying so is
twofold: (i) to exploit the pre-sorted pattern information
given by the classifier, it is logical to assign an individual
module a prediction job in its IocaI "specialized" domain;
(U) a modular network takes less memory, requires shorter

contained in the error vector which is fed back from the learning time, and has better performance for this type of
modular network to the classifier. The error vector is prediction problems [4].
deflned a Fig. 2 is the structure of the modular neural network.

Wbere
.
e(t) = [e,(t). %(t). . . . em(t)IT, (12)
-
ei(t) = x(t) ii(t). i = 1, . . . ,m. (13)
Here, x(t) is the wind measurement averaged for time
period (t -At, 2). i i(t) is the estimate for the same period
made by the ith module, and m is the total number of
modules in the network.
Auto-tuning, i.e., the automatic adjustment of the
weight vectors, can be achieved in a manner similar to
neural network learning. Different learning algorithms
can be applied leading to different utilization of modules.
For example, error COfTection learning changes a weight
vector to let it have several nonzero elements (by
normalizing, we always keep lwd = I), while competitive
learning can only move the position of the element 1
without producing more nonzero elements.
The fuzzy classifier auto-tuned on-line and in real
time performs the data preprocessing task, providing a
primitive pattern frame to the neural network. It also
suppresses the effects of wind fluctuation noise.
V. MODULARTEiMFORALNETWORK
The center of this fuzzy neural approach is a modular
temporal neural network which ensures high accuracy and
stable performance in wind prediction. As implied in its
name, this network uses multiple modules to build
models for different patterns, and applies time-delay
filtering technique to process time-varying signals.
The input pair {x}, {r} is received by all the modules
simultaneously, and each module computes its estimate
2 i(t). The final estimate of the network is computed by
i(2) = Wi(t)T E (t). (14)
Here, wi(t) is the weight vector corresponding to the
pattern found by the classifier, and ( t ) is the vector
whose components are estimates made by individual
modules.
i (t) = [i !(t), i*(t). . . . , i,(t)lT. (15)
B. Spatio-TemporalNeuron Model
In standard neural network analysis, a neuron is
represented by a nonlinear model consisted of a summing
junction, an activation function, and a threshold. The
model accounts for the spatial behavior of a neuron by
incorporating a set of synaptic weights for its input
signals. However, it is unable to be used effectively for
temporal processing.
A finite-duration impulse response (FIR) neuron
model is used for the neural network here, as shown in
Fig. 3. Fig. 4 is its equivalent signal flow. The output
of the neuron j is
YjO) = c~lvj(01, (16)
where cp[] is the activation function. and vj(t) is the
difference of the summed weighted input and the threshold
ej,
P n
$2) =
i-11-0
-
hji (1AQ ui(t I&)& - 8j. (17)

383

Fig. 3. Finite-duration impulse response neuron model
Here,hji(t) is the impulse response filter. ~
( tis) the input
from neuron i to neuron j . A t is the sampling period,
which we assume is equal to the time interval between
two estimates, p is the number of neurons in the input
side with respect to neuron j , and n is the number of
previous measurements we use for the neural network
computation. Since nAf is a finite duration on which the
spatio-temporal model behaves, the model is called finite-
duration impulse response (FIR) model [SI.
We choose an exponential expression for the impulse
response filter
hji(t) = mji ,Lap(- $1. (18)
where mji is the synaptic weight from neuron i to neuron
j . andt is a time constant.
C. FIR Network Structure
Using the finite-duration impulse response (FIR)
neuron model for all the neurons in the hidden and output
layers, we construct a FIR network which in turn is a
module in our modular network. The signal appearing at
the ith synapse of neuron j is given by a linear
combination of delayed values of the input signql as
shown by the convolution sum, as seen in (17).
D. Training and SimpliJhtion of the Network
The network is trained by a standard back-propagation
algorithm. In the training process. we use both simulated
wind field data and real wind measurements as input-
output pairs. The cost function at)to be minimized is
defined%
-
Ut)= x(1) i(1). (19)
It is interesting to notice that several wind patterns
may have a great deal of properties in common,reflected
by the fac4 that they choose or assign similar weights to a
specific module in the network when the fuzzy neural
384
Fig. 4. Signal flow in a FIR neuron
network becomes stable after initial training.
Simplification can be conducted by letting them share the
same module to reduce the number of modules under
certain constraints.
VI. EXPERIMENTALRESULTS
Extensive numerical experiments havebeen d u c t e d
with both simulated wind data and real wind
measurements. For the sake of brevity, we present here
only the results of one step prediction i( t + At).
The modular temporal neural network has 25 modules
at the beginning, each module has two hidden layers with
the following properties:
(i) The input layer is just an input node;
(ii) The first hidden layer consists of 10 neurons. and
each synaptic filter has 5 taps;
(iii) The second hidden layer consists of 8 neurons,
and each synaptic filter has 3 taps;
(iv) The output layer has one output neuron which
has3taps.
The time interval for prediction is chosen to be 5
minutes. The number of previous measurements used is
5. After the initial training, the number of modules
usually converges to around 10 under certain appropriate
constraint conditions.
Table 2 is a summary of the numerical results. It
will be explained next.
A. Elperiments with Simulated Wind Data
Tests were carried out using wind data generated by a
theoretical turbulent wind model described in [6]. Wind
speed is the combination of a stationary component and a
turbulence component simulated using the Monte Carlo
method. The wind data last for ten days with the time
interval At = 5 minutes.
For median to severe turbulence. the fuzzy neural
network gives a prediction accuracy of 78.6 % for error E
s 0.2 mls. and an accuracy of %.5 96 for E s 03 mls.
B. Experiments with Real Wind Data
Tests were carried out using wind data recocdedat the
 TABLE 2
NUMERICAL RESULTS OF WIND SPEED PREDICTION
E s 0.2mls E s 0.3 mls
Simulated wind speed 78.56% %SO%
Real wind speed 83.07% 97.22%
Alternative Energy Institute of West Texas A 6tM
University. Wind speed was observed by using a Met One
014A anemometer; and wind direction was observed by
using a Met One 018 wind vane: The wind data last for
ten days with the time interval At = 5 minutes.
For wind speed only, the fuzzy neural network gives a
prediction accuracy of 83.1 % for e m r E s 0.2 m l s , and
an accuracy of 97.2% for E s 0.3mls.
VII. CONCLUSIONS
As an attempt to apply neural fuzzy techniques to the
wind pattern reoognitiodprediction problems, this paper
uses a new approach utilizing a fuzzy classifier and a
modular temporal neural network to predict wind speed and
direction for advanced wind turbine control systems.
The fuzzy neural approach handles well wind patterns
and time-varying wind signals with quick on-line learning
capability. Its performance is effective, as verified by
numerical results. After a trial run period, the wind
pattern recognitiodprediction can be performed in a near-
optimal way.
Further improvement can be expected by
implementing temporal back-propagation algorithm.
385
This approach is capable of conducting pattern
reoognition and parameter prediction for other weather and
turbine operation conditions. In general, the principle of
this approach is also applicable to nonstationary time
series modeling and prediction problems.
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