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Reliability Engineering and System Safety 65 (1999) 229–238

Application of genetic algorithm for reliability allocation in nuclear


power plants
Joon-Eon Yang*, Mee-Jung Hwang, Tae-Yong Sung, Youngho Jin
Integrated Safety Assessment Team, Advanced Nuclear Technology Development, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, P.O. Box 105, Yusong-Gu,
Taejon 305-600, South Korea
Received 1 June 1998; received in revised form 8 December 1998; accepted 8 December 1998

Abstract
Reliability allocation is an optimization process of minimizing the total plant costs subject to the overall plant safety goal constraints.
Reliability allocation was applied to determine the reliability characteristics of reactor systems, subsystems, major components and plant
procedures that are consistent with a set of top-level performance goals; the core melt frequency, acute fatalities and latent fatalities.
Reliability allocation can be performed to improve the design, operation and safety of new and/or existing nuclear power plants. Reliability
allocation is a kind of a difficult multi-objective optimization problem as well as a global optimization problem. The genetic algorithm,
known as one of the most powerful tools for most optimization problems, is applied to the reliability allocation problem of a typical
pressurized water reactor in this article. One of the main problems of reliability allocation is defining realistic objective functions. Hence, in
order to optimize the reliability of the system, the cost for improving and/or degrading the reliability of the system should be included in the
reliability allocation process. We used techniques derived from the value impact analysis to define the realistic objective function in this
article. 䉷 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Reliability allocation; Genetic algorithm; Value impact analysis

Nomenclature RT Reactor Trip System


SIT Safety Injection Tank
AFWS Auxiliary Feedwater System
SWS Service Water System
BD Bleed System
SLOCA Small LOCA
CDF Core Damage Frequency
SR Steam Removal System
DG Diesel Generator
VIA Value Impact Analysis
EPS Electric Power Supply System
HPSI High Pressure Safety Injection System
IA Instrument Air System
LOCA Loss of Coolant Accident
LLOCA Large LOCA 1. Introduction
LCD Late Cancer Death
LCF Latent Cancer Fatality Protecting the public from the risk of NPPs by increasing
LOFW Loss of Main Feedwater the safety of NPPs is the main goal of the nuclear safety
LOOP Loss of Offsite Power study. To accomplish this goal, various approaches are
LPSI Low Pressure Safety Injection System adopted in several aspects: (1) the diversity and redundancy
MFWS Main Feedwater System concepts in the design of NPPs, (2) the surveillance and
MLOCA Medium LOCA testing of components, and (3) the various safety analyses
NPPs Nuclear Power Plants such as PSA. Our ultimate goal is to keep the risk from NPPs
PDS Plant Damage State as zero, however, it is impossible to achieve this goal in the
PWR Pressurized Water Reactor real world owing to various technical and economical
PSA Probabilistic Safety Assessment restrictions. So an approach called reliability allocation
emerged [1–7]. Reliability allocation is a kind of optimiza-
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 082-42-868-8640; Fax: 082-42-868-8374. tion problem for minimizing the total plant costs subject to
E-mail address: jeyang@nanum.kaeri.re.kr (J.-E. Yang) the overall plant safety goal constraints [1].
0951-8320/99/$ - see front matter 䉷 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S0951-832 0(98)00103-3
230 J.-E. Yang et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 65 (1999) 229–238

Fig. 1. Flow chart of genetic algorithm.

Reliability allocation was applied to determine the relia- based on conventional optimization techniques that can
bility characteristics of reactor systems, subsystems, major not guarantee the global optimum for nonlinear multi-
components and plant procedures that are consistent with a objective problems like reliability allocation. Hence the
set of top-level performance goals: the core melt frequency, previous approaches used some assumptions to simplify
acute fatalities and latent fatalities. Reliability allocation the problems. Recently, it has become known that the
can be performed to improve the design, operation and genetic algorithm is one of the most powerful tools for
safety of a new and/or existing NPP. The importance of many optimization problems [8]. The genetic algorithm
reliability allocation is emphasized in several aspects: (1) can provide a global optimal solution with the proper choice
to minimize the risk of nuclear power plants under various of related parameters. It also enables us to provide various
constraints, (2) to allocate limited resources effectively, and constraints and to define complex objective functions. It was
(3) to reduce over-design. applied to the optimization of reliability and test interval
Until now, various approaches were proposed to solve problems [9–11]. Hence, in this article, the genetic algo-
this problem. However, most approaches have some limita- rithm is applied to the reliability allocation process of NPPs.
tions in satisfying all optimization objectives [1]. Most opti- One of the main problems of reliability allocation is
mization techniques used in the previous approaches are defining the realistic objective functions. For simplicity,
J.-E. Yang et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 65 (1999) 229–238 231

Table 1
Data to quantify the health and investment risks

Plant damage state Health risk Investment risk Total risk

1 Severe core damage or core 5.0 × 10 person rem/


4
$1162–$3136 million $1167–3,186 million
melt; significant radioisotope event, ( ˆ $5–$50 median: $2149 million median: $2176.5 million
release to containment million/event)
2 Small LOCA leading to 3.8 × 10 4 person rem/ $329–$924 million $332.8–962 millions
containment cleanup, valve and event, ( ˆ $3.8–$38 median: $626.5 millions median: $647.4 million
vessel repair to containment million/event)
3 Possible damage to steam $32–$243 millions $32–243 millions
generator; minor containment median: $137.5 million median: $137.5 million
cleanup and equipment checkout
4 Possible primary system water $1–$6 millions median: $1–6 millions median:
loss; little or no spill into $3.5 million $3.5 million
containment; no core or
equipment damage

until now, simplified objective functions were used in most based on the given criteria. In this article, VIA is used as a
reliability allocation methods. In some systems, it is very tool to define the objective function of the genetic algo-
difficult to increase the reliability of the systems; however, it rithm. The value and impact for increasing and/or decreas-
is easy to improve the reliability of some systems with very ing the unavailability of systems are estimated based on
little cost. So in order to optimize the reliability of a system, several aspects such as costs for design and hardware
the cost for increasing and/or decreasing the reliabilities of changes, availability, licensing and etc. The costs and bene-
the system and/or the CDF should be incorporated into the fits related to the changes of total CDF are also estimated.
reliability allocation process. To define the realistic objec- In addition, various constraints owing to the realistic
tive function, we used techniques derived from the VIA situation such as the requirements from the regulatory
[12–14]. The VIA can provide the best alternative design body are also provided as additional constraints, e.g., the

Fig. 2. Example of event tree: Small LOCA.


232 J.-E. Yang et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 65 (1999) 229–238

reliability target of AFWS is 1.0 × 10 ⫺3/yr in PWR. The We also developed simplified fault trees for the following
acceptable ranges of each system’s unavailability are also 12 systems:
defined as the constraints.
1. Reactor Trip System (RT),
2. Bleed System (BD),
2. Genetic algorithm 3. Safety Injection Tank (SIT),
4. High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSI),
A genetic algorithm mimics the real physical world. A 5. Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSI),
genetic algorithm generates the initial population of solu- 6. Main Feedwater System (MFWS),
tions. This population evolves over successive generations 7. Auxiliary Feedwater System (AFWS),
based on the survival of fitness. The operations such as 8. Steam Removal System (SR),
reproduction, cross over and mutation are performed on 9. Electric Power Supply System (EPS),
the populations and the fitness of each individual is evalu- 10. Diesel Generator (DG),
ated. Based on the new fitness of each individual, the popu- 11. Service Water System (SWS), and
lation of next generation is produced probabilistically. As 12. Instrument Air System (IA).
time moves on, the individuals with poor fitness will disap- As the main goal of reliability allocation in this article is to
pear, and the individuals with high fitness will survive. The determine the reliability target in the system level, the
genetic algorithm can search huge space rapidly based on developed fault trees are simple ones that consist of system
the implicit parallelism. The flowchart of the genetic algo- failures (hardware failures and related human errors) and
rithm is shown in Fig. 1 [8]. those of related support systems.
Genetic algorithms are appropriate for various optimiza- The problem to be solved is how to optimize the reliabil-
tion problems including multi-modal and multi-objective ities of each system modeled in this simplified PSA model
problems. For more details of genetic algorithms, refer to with the consideration for cost. There are a lot of items that
Ref. [8]. This genetic algorithm is applied to the reliability affect the reliabilities of systems: system designs, compo-
allocation process of NPPs in this article. nent hardware failure rate, human error probability, and
The problem specific features of a genetic algorithm such maintenance practice. The effects of each item will be
as objective functions and selection of parameters will be discussed, when we define the objective function in Section
explained in later sections. 4.

3. Problems to be solved
4. Define objective function
Reliability allocation is based on a PSA model. Thus a
One of the main problems in the reliability allocation is
simplified PSA model is developed for a typical PWR. We
defining the realistic objective functions. Until now, most
developed simplified event trees for the following four
reliability allocation methods have used simplified objective
major initiating events.
functions for simplicity. In the real world, however, the
1. Loss of coolant accident group costs of increasing and/or decreasing reliabilities of a
system depend upon the design and characteristics of the
• large and medium LOCA: the frequency is assumed as
system. So in order to optimize the reliability of a system,
6.60 × ⫺6/yr;
the costs of improving and/or degrading the reliability of
• small LOCA: the frequency is assumed as 2.43 × ⫺5/
that system should be incorporated into the reliability allo-
yr.
cation process. For this, we used techniques derived from
2. Transient group the VIA to define realistic objective functions of the genetic
algorithm.
• loss of main feedwater: the frequency is assumed as
The VIA can provide the best alternative designs based
5.40 × ⫺3/yr;
on the given criteria [12–14]. However, it is difficult to
• loss of offsite power: the frequency is assumed as
estimate the effects of combined alternative designs in the
6.15 × ⫺4/yr.
overall aspect by VIA. VIA is a bottom–up approach.
As the effect of core damage is different according to the However, the reliability allocation is a top–down approach,
severity of accident sequences, the core damage state is which decides the range of reliabilities for each system in
divided into four PDSs. The descriptions for each PDS are order to minimize the overall cost. The value and impact of
given in Table 1. PDS 1–4 are assigned to the end points of increasing and/or decreasing the unavailability of systems
event trees according to the characteristics of each accident are estimated in several aspects: cost for design and hard-
sequence. The accident sequence are quantified for PDSs. ware changes, availability, licensing and etc. The cost and
An example of an event tree (i.e., SLOCA event tree) is benefit related to the changes of PDS frequencies are also
shown in Fig. 2. estimated.
J.-E. Yang et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 65 (1999) 229–238 233

Table 2
Estimation of capital cost for each system.
The costs of the upper limit are obtained by multiplying 1.2 to the costs of the base case, and those of the lower limit are obtained by multiplying 0.8 to the
costs of the base case. The systems marked by a are classified as the safety class, hence, the weighting factor 1.2 is multiplied to the summed cost to derive
capital cost

System Tank Pump Valves Base cost Redundancy Capital cost ( × $1000)
($270 000) ($80 000–11 000) ($5000) ($300 000)
Lower limit Base case Upper limit

RS a 1 4 1488 1860 2232


AFW a 3 4 49 1 4 1543 1928 2314
MFW 4 52 1 4 2016 2520 3024
SR 55 1 2 372 465 558
BD a 8 1 2 263 328.8 395
HPSI a 0.5 2 52 1 2 711 889 1067
LPI/SDC a 0.5 2 32 1 2 654 817 981
SIT a 4 0 2 1 4 1283 1603 1924
EPS 1 1 1040 1300 1560
DG 1 2 4000 5000 6000
SWS 2 4 62 1 4 1141 1426 1711
IA 2 2 30 2 2 880 1100 1320

Actually, it is difficult to estimate health effects in mone- consequence accident are totally inadequate. As a
tary units. Such an approach can cause arguments. However, result, lower and upper bound limits were estimated
it is convenient to use a uniform unit to determine the best for each category of accident [12].
choice even though the monetary unit is not the best one. So, • This risk represents the cost for clean up, repair and/or
in this article, we use a monetary unit for the objective decomposition according to PDS after regulatory
function. The monetary data used in this article are not the response.
exact ones. The data are used only for comparisons among
Financial impact is estimated based on the following
alternatives. Our goal is to minimize the overall cost while
items:
keeping safety goals such as reliability targets for systems
and/or the limits of PDS. • capital costs (it is estimated from the cost of compo-
The attributes of the objective function consist of (1) nents),
health risk, (2) investment risk, (3) licensability, and (4) • operation and maintenance costs,
financial impact [12]. Among these attributes, we assumed • system capacity costs,
that the licensability does not cause big differences in the • system energy costs.
cost as all systems are to be reviewed by regulatory bodies.
The financial impact is dominated by capital costs; it can
We also assumed that there are no innovative design
be changed according to the class and/or complexity of
changes in the systems.
systems. So in this article, we only consider Capital Costs
The attributes for health and investment risk are esti-
from among the earlier mentioned four items of financial
mated as shown in the Table 1. The values for each item
impact. The estimation on the capital costs of each system is
are estimated based on the following backgrounds.
shown in Table 2.
1. Health risk: In the real world, however, an effective maintenance
strategy can reduce risks with only a small incremental
• LCF dominates costs owing to an accident, so acute cost. Moreover, most PSAs show that the two types of
cancer fatality is assumed to be negligible. human actions, (i.e., pre- and post-accident human actions),
• It is estimated that $100–1000/person-rem, 10 000 have great effects on the results of PSA. As the effects of
man-rem/LCD [12]. pre-accident human actions on a system’s unavailability are
• In order to estimate the health risks properly, Level 2 very system dependent, it is difficult to assess the effects of
PSA model is required, that is, containment event pre-accident human actions in the design stage. So, in this
trees are to be developed and the effect of the source stage, the pre-accident human actions are not assessed. The
term is to be evaluated. However, for simplicity, we maintenance related pre-accident human actions might be
used the dose conversion factor as in Ref. [13]. optimized after the optimization of a system’s reliability as
shown in Ref. [11]. For the effects of post-accident human
2. Investments risk:
actions, in this article, we assumed that the changes of
• It is recognized that single point estimates for the system reliabilities do not affect the post-accident human
financial impact of a low probability and high cost error probabilities. So, the human error probabilities of
234 J.-E. Yang et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 65 (1999) 229–238

Fig. 3. Performance results with different seeds and/or parameter values.

post-accident human actions are regarded as constants, i.e., reliability allocation, IRij, the value/impact owing to
these are not the variables to be optimized. investment risk for ith PDS based on the jth reliability
Based on these observations, the costs for changing the allocation, and FIj, the financial impact (capital/economical
reliabilities of systems are estimated using the following risk) of the jth reliability allocation.
approach [1]: In addition, the various constraints of the real world, such
as the requirements from the regulatory body, are also
cos ti ˆ ai ln…1 ⫹ Ri † ⫹ bi ; provided as additional constraints, e.g., the reliability target
of AFWS is assumed as 1.0 × ⫺3 in this article. The accep-
where ai, bi are the constants derived from the cost of base table ranges of each system’s unavailability are also defined
case, ai, bi ⬎ 0 and Ri is a system unavailability for the ith as the constraints.
alternative. There is one more item we have to consider, i.e., the plant
This function satisfies the following conditions [1]: availability. The change of systems’ reliability causes the
change of initiating event frequencies. Therefore, this aspect
1. the cost of a low reliability system is very low,
should be included in the objective function. The final
2. the cost of a high reliability system is very high,
objective function can be represented as follows:
3. the cost is a monotonic increasing function of reliability,
4. the derivative of cost with respect to reliability is a mono- X
tonic increasing function of reliability. OBFj ˆ PDSij …IEijk †‰HRCij ⫹ IRij Š ⫹ FIj ;
i
From these conditions, the final objective function of the
reliability allocation process is defined as: where IEijk is the change of the kth initiating event frequency
for the ith PDS based on the jth reliability allocation.
X
OBFj ˆ PDSij ‰HRCij ⫹ IRij Š ⫹ FIj ; It is difficult to derive a relation between the reliability of
i a system and the frequency of an initiating event caused by
the failure of that system as it depends upon the character-
where OBFj is the value of objective function probability for istics of NPPs. In most cases, the front line systems modeled
the jth reliability allocation, PDSij, the probability of the ith in PSA do not affect the frequencies of initiating events
PDS based on the jth reliability allocation, HRCij, the value/ greatly. The supporting systems, however, will affect the
impact owing to health risk for ith PDS based on the jth frequencies of initiating events greatly. Thus, in this article,
J.-E. Yang et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 65 (1999) 229–238 235

Fig. 4. Changes of fitness function over generations.

it is assumed that the frequencies of each initiating event are event frequency of the feedwater system, F:
not affected by the change of system reliability as four initi-
F ˆ g…Q=PR † ˆ …g=PR †Q ˆ hQ;
ating events are not related to the supporting systems.
However, as an example, a sample case is analyzed that where h ˆ g=PR . As both g and PR are functions of running
incorporates the change of an initiating event frequency failure rates, we assume that h is almost a constant. In our
according to the reliability of the system. As only the example, we derived h from the initial unavailability and
frequency of LOFW is affected by the reliability of a system initiating event frequency of MFWS, i.e., 0.1086.
among four initiating events, we assume that the frequency
of LOFW is changed according to the reliability of the
MFWS. 5. Development of problem specific genetic model
As mentioned earlier, it is not an easy job to derive the
The genetic algorithm for this problem is implemented by
initiating event frequency from the fault tree. It depends
using a commercial tool that supports most features of a
upon the specific structure of the system and maintenance
genetic algorithm. Based on the developed event trees and
practice for that system, and so on. So, based on the follow-
fault trees, the minimal cut sets of each PDS are generated.
ing considerations, we derive a simple algebraic equation
The basic events of fault trees, i.e., the failure probabilities
for the new initiating event frequency of LOFW. In general,
of components, are modeled as chromosomes of each indi-
the MFWS consists of running trains and a stand-by train.
vidual.
Roughly speaking, there is a relation similar as shown:
As the genetic algorithm is based on the probabilistic
Q ˆ PR PS ; operations, we perform a kind of sensitivity analyses for
the parameters of genetic algorithm; the different prob-
where Q is the unavailability of the main feedwater system, abilities for operations such as cross over, mutation and etc.
PR, the running failure probabilities of main feedwater oper- and different seeds for random number generation are tested.
ating trains and PS, the startup failure probability of the The different population sizes and chromosome lengths are
main feedwater stand-by train. also tested. Parts of the results are shown in Fig. 3. Based on
The initiating event frequency can be obtained from the the results of such tests, the main parameters used in the
following formula: developed model are selected as shown as follows.
• population size: 100,
F ˆ g × PS ; • length of chromosome: 32 bits,
• cross over rate: 0.9,
where F is the initiating event frequency of feedwater • mutation rate: 0.01,
system and g, the function of running failure rates. In this • maximum generation number: 300,
formula, g is a pure initiator and PS is a pure enabler. So we • termination criteria: best fitness unchanged after 50
can derive a simple algebraic equation for the initiating generations.
236 J.-E. Yang et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 65 (1999) 229–238

Fig. 5. Results for unfixed and fixed PDS cases.

The chromosome is composed of 32 genes, which are 6. Results and discussion


implemented in the computer as a binary bit. The genes can
have two values, 0 and 1. So, the chromosome used in this The results of reliability allocation are shown in Figs. 5–
article can have the precision 1/2 32 as the failure probabilities 7. Fig. 5 shows the changes of system reliabilities for three
of components can have the value in the range from 0 to 1. typical cases. The base case represents the initial values of
The cross over and the mutation operators are applied to a system unavailability before reliability allocation.
particular chromosome during a generation as shown in Fig. 1. The costs owing to health and investment risks have
In applying the cross over operator, all chromosomes of different characteristics from those owing to financial
two individuals are treated independently, and cross over impact, that is, the former are indirect costs; and the latter
operator is applied to each pair of chromosomes. are direct costs used during the construction of a NPP.
In the developed model, the constraints limit the values Hence, the reliability allocation is performed for the follow-
that the genetic algorithm will search, thus limiting the time ing two cases.
that the genetic algorithm will take to find an optimal solu- (1) The change of PDS probability is allowed
tion. Most examples require a few minutes to converge. The (‘‘Unfixed’’ in Fig. 5):
changes of fitness function over generations for a sample This means that the indirect cost is included in the opti-
case are shown in Fig. 4. mization process. Fig. 5 shows that the reliabilities of many

Fig. 6. Results with the different constraints and change of IE frequency.


J.-E. Yang et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 65 (1999) 229–238 237

Fig. 7. Results with three different cost values.

systems are decreased when compared to the base case. frequency, the reliabilities of each system show similar
Such a fact has positive effects in the design and/or opera- trends.
tion of those systems as the designer or operator can have The ‘‘Diff. Constr.’’ case of Fig. 6 shows the results of
more flexibility in handling those systems. reliability allocation when an additional constraint is added,
(2) The increase of PDS probability is not allowed that is, the reliability target of HPSI is given as 1.0 × minus;2.
(‘‘Fixed’’ in Fig. 5): The unavailability of systems is changed compared to the
This is the case where the increase of PDS probability is reference case, i.e. unfixed PDS case. It seems that the
not allowed owing to risk aversion. So, in this case, the constraints play very important roles in the optimization
indirect cost is not used for optimization, i.e., the health process. So it is important to identify the main constraints
and impact risks are not used in the optimization process. of the real world.
Only the system reliabilities are changed to minimize the As it is recognized that single point estimates of financial
financial impact. The results show that the cost can be impact of a low probability and high cost consequence acci-
reduced greatly by optimizing the reliabilities of the dent are totally inadequate, the reliability allocations for the
systems, while keeping the safety of NPPs at the same level. unfixed PDS case are performed again based on the costs of
The changes in costs are shown in Table 3. In the cost the lower, upper bound limits and the median value. These
aspect, the analyzed results show that the total amount of results are shown in Fig. 7. The case using the median value
costs is bounded by the costs related to the system reliabil- is the reference case (Unfixed PDS) that is shown in Figs. 5
ities as shown in Table 3. As the changes of PDS are small, and 6. The results of Fig. 7 show that the reliabilities of each
the total cost change owing to the PDS change is also small. system show similar values for all three cases.
In the real world, the change of a systems’ reliability
causes the change of initiating even frequencies. So, in
this article, a sample case is analyzed to show the capability 7. Conclusions
of the genetic algorithm to handle such a situation. A simple
algebraic equation is used to derive the new frequency of We implemented the genetic algorithm to the reliability
LOFW based on the new reliability of the main feedwater allocation process of a typical PWR. The simplified PSA
system. The results are shown in Fig. 6 as the ‘‘IE-Freq.’’ model is developed for a PWR, and VIA is used to define the
case. Even though we allow the change of initiating event objective function. Various cases are analyzed which show
the genetic algorithm is the suitably way to handle the
complex reliability allocation process.
Table 3 One of the problems we have to pay attention is the
Changes of costs of three cases uncertainty that arose from the various sources. That is,
Cost Unfixed ( × $1000) Fixed ( × $1000) IE freq. ( × $1000) most information used in this article needs further analysis:
(1) the classification of PDS, (2) the cost estimation for
System ⫺8.25 × 10 3 ⫺5.32 × 10 3 ⫺6.80 × 10 3 health, investment risks and financial impact, and finally
PDS 1.05 × 10 3 0 ⫺1.70 × 10 2
(3) the estimation of the cost for the reliability improvement
Total ⫺7.21 × 10 3 ⫺5.32 × 10 3 ⫺6.97 × 10 3
of each system. To handle such situations, we have tried to
238 J.-E. Yang et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 65 (1999) 229–238

get the bands of values for each variable instead of a single like to thank the reviewers for their critical review and
value. Such bands are derived from two extreme values like constructive suggestions to improve the quality and read-
the upper and lower limits of each variable’s range. ability of this article.
Although, it does not show the band in which the real
optimum value exists, we can get some insights on the
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