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REPRESENTING COTTON GROWERS THROUGHOUT ALABAMA, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND VIRGINIA

COTTON MARKETING NEWS


Volume 17, No. 9 June 28, 2019
201919
Further, even for cotton planted, some was done so in very dry
Sponsored by conditions. Some cotton that was planted had to be replanted.
Some cotton that was planted will end up not being harvested.

2019 Acreage and Production Will Remain a Mystery USDA’s Acreage report is the first survey-based estimate of acres
actually planted. The estimate is based primarily on surveys
Last season, US farmers planted 14.1 million acres of cotton. Back conducted during the first 2 weeks of June. Today’s report says
in March, USDA’s Prospective Plantings report estimated that farmers have “planted and intend to plant” 13.72 million acres—
farmers intended to plant 13.78 million acres this year—2.3% less down slightly from the March number and 2.7% less than last year.
than last year.
Given the decline in prices and the troubles of the planting season,
I distinctively remember that prior to the March number, the I suppose we should not be surprised that the June number is low
general consensus among industry analysts was that acreage and less than last season—but, this also begs the question. We
would again be somewhere north of 14 million acres. The know that acres have been prevented due to rain or drought. We
National Cotton Council, in February, had released their estimate don’t yet know the extent of that but it could be enough to mean
of 14.45 million. Cotton prices (new crop Dec19 futures) were in that acres actually intended to be planted were more than the
the low 70’s. March 13.78 number?

The June survey ask farmers how much they have planted and still
US Cotton Acres Planted, 2018 and 2019 1
intend to plant as of the first 2 weeks of June. It could be that
2019 3 even some of these acres were not planted. In other words, could
even the 13.72 number end up a little high?
2018 2 March June
Alabama 510 510 510
Arizona 174 163 166
Arkansas 485 580 580
California 258 265 280
Florida 117 90 120
Georgia 1,430 1,350 1,350
Kansas 165 170 185
Louisiana 195 260 260
Mississippi 620 680 700
Missouri 325 380 370
New Mexico 84 78 77
North Carolina 430 470 460
Oklahoma 780 720 720
South Carolina 300 290 300
Tennessee 360 360 370 Look, US acres and production are fragile. Acres planted, yield,
and acres harvested are especially big wild cards this year. That,
Texas 7,768 7,314 7,167
in and of itself, isn’t likely enough to give us a boost in prices (Dec
Virginia 98 100 105 futures are currently in the 66 cents area and seem to have some
Total US 14,099 13,780 13,720 support there). But, combine less than expected US production
1/ Thous a nd a cres . with eventually good news on the US-China trade front, good
2/ USDA, fi na l a ctua l a cres pl a nted. export numbers, and growth in use—that combination is what the
3/ USDA, Prospective Plantings , 3/29/2019 a nd Acreage , 6/28/2019. grower should be on the lookout for.

Overall, I believe the March intentions were considered about Cotton Economist- Retired
right. But, since then, cotton prices have declined and we’ve had Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics
extremely wet conditions in some areas and drought in others.
We’ve had a combination of late/delayed planting in some areas
and prevented planting in the same or other areas.

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