Arabian Journal of Geosciences (2018) 11: 327

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3700-6

ORIGINAL PAPER

Trends in extreme rainfall over ecologically sensitive Western Ghats

and coastal regions of Karnataka: an observational assessment
Vinay Doranalu Chandrashekar 1 & Amba Shetty 1

Received: 4 August 2017 / Accepted: 18 June 2018 / Published online: 25 June 2018
# Saudi Society for Geosciences 2018

Abstract
Rainfall is one of the pivotal climatic variables, which influence spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. In this study, we
have attempted to understand the interannual long-term trend analysis of the daily rainfall events of ≥ 2.5 mm and rainfall events
of extreme threshold, over the Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka. High spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily
gridded rainfall data set of Indian Meteorological Department was used for this study. Thirty-eight grid points in the study area
was selected to analyze the daily precipitation for 113 years (1901–2013). Grid points were divided into two zones: low land
(exposed to the sea and low elevated area/coastal region) and high land (interior from the sea and high elevated area/Western
Ghats). The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI and are based on annual
rainfall total (RR), yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, consecutive wet days (≥ 2.5 mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), annual
frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥ 100 mm), frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥ 65–100 mm), moderate rainfall (≥ 2.5–65 mm),
frequency of medium rainfall (≥ 40–65 mm), and frequency of low rainfall (≥ 20–40 mm). Mann-Kendall test was applied to the
nine rainfall indices, and Theil-Sen estimator perceived the nature and the magnitude of slope in rainfall indices. The results show
contrasting trends in the extreme rainfall indices in low land and high land regions. The changes in daily rainfall events in the low
land region primarily indicate statistically significant positive trends in the annual total rainfall, yearly 1-day maximum rainfall,
SDII, frequency of very heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall as well as medium rainfall events. Furthermore, the overall annual
rainfall strongly correlated with all the rainfall indices in both regions, especially with indices that represent heavy rainfall events
which is responsible for the total increase of rainfall.

Keywords Coastal region . Western Ghats . India . Trend analysis . Extreme rainfall . Karnataka

Introduction distribution of runoff, groundwater reserves, and soil moisture

Rainfall variability plays a central role in the Indian economy
as rain water is the main source for the agriculture sector,
which is a major contributor to the national GDP and provider
of livelihood for more than half of the country’s population
(Gadgil and Gadgil 2006). The variability in the spatial and
seasonal distribution of rainfall affects the spatial and temporal
* Vinay Doranalu Chandrashekar
vinaydc@gmail.com
Amba Shetty
amba_shetty@yahoo.co.in
1
Department of Applied Mechanics and Hydraulics, National Institute
of Technology Karnataka, P. O. Srinivasnagar, Surathkal,
Mangaluru 575025, Karnataka, India
which in turn directly influences the frequency of droughts
and floods. Further, temporal change in precipitation distribu-
tion affects the cropping patterns and yield, bearing an effect
on Indian economy (Kumar et al. 2010). Data exhibiting the
variability of rainfall helps the policy makers to plan and ex-
ecute effective irrigation schemes for water management
which in effect will lessen the impact of drought (Gadgil
1986). The authorities can also plan adequate preventive mea-
sures against natural disasters, such as floods and landslides, if
they have the data regarding rainfall variability.
The direct and inevitable relationship between rainfall
variability and human life encouraged the researchers to
conduct studies to measure rainfall variability across India.
May (2002) studied about the inconsistency in the rainfall
trends in India. The study identified that a considerable in-
crease in moisture transport resulted in rainfall extremity.
Roy and Balling (2004) also observed an increase in rainfall
327 Page 2 of 13
extremity, especially in the Deccan Plateau in the southern pen-
insular India and also in the northwestern Himalayas in
Kashmir. The spatial analysis by Roy and Balling (2007) also
went in line with their previous study and stated that the western
part of the country receive extreme precipitation events.
Meanwhile, the analysis by Guhathakurta and Rajeevan
(2006) revealed a sharp decrease in the rainfall trend over
Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Kerala during the southwest mon-
soon season. However, Goswami et al. (2006) reported incon-
sistency in the trends of rainfall and argued that there is no clear
trend in the mean seasonal rainfall all over India (1951–2000).
Further, the contribution from increasing heavy rainfall events
was nullified by decreasing moderate rainfall events. This ob-
servation was further strengthened by Rajeevan et al. (2006)
whose analysis depicted an increase in extreme rainfall events
and decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India.
One of the principal reasons for the variation is the impact
produced by global warming, which directly influences the
hydrological cycle. According to Kyoung et al. (2011), the
changes in temperature will also produce corresponding
changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall and
become a prime cause for the increase in frequency and inten-
sity of extreme rainfall events and also for the length of dry
spells (Christensen et al. 2007; Sippel et al. 2016). Rajendran
and Kitoh (2008) claim global warming to be the prime reason
for increase in the simulated monsoon rainfall over the interior
regions of the Indian subcontinent and for the significant
reduction in the orographic rainfall over the west coast of
Karnataka and Kerala. Jain and Kumar (2012) also observed
inconsistencies in the rainfall event in India and its
relationship with temperature variation and global warming.
They reviewed the trend of rainfall, number of rainy days, and
temperature over India and identified variations in the rainfall
patterns and stated that the exponential variation in the
temperature could be one of the reasons for this variation.
The report by IPCC SREX (2012) also indexed the increase
in extreme rainfall events and decrease in return period of
rainfall in regions at high latitudes and tropics.
Karnataka is geographically divided into three regions,
namely, coastal region (coast of Arabian Sea), inland region,
and Western Ghats. Around 90% of the rainfall in this area is
contributed by the southwest monsoon (June–September)
with large spatial and temporal variations. The topographical
fence of the Western Ghats of India plays an important role in
controlling the rainfall distribution of the southwest monsoon
in the coastal region. It causes an increase in rainfall on the
windward side while a decrease on the leeward side. The
eastern side of the Western Ghats of Karnataka receives low
rainfall as moist air arising from the Arabian Sea is blocked by
the surrounding mountains (Tawde and Singh 2015). The
western part (windward side) of the Western Ghats and the
coastal plains receive intense rainfall due to the orographic
effect as moist air flux rises from the Arabian Sea (Francis
Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327
and Gadgil 2006; Tawde and Singh 2015). Coastal areas are
highly populated, and the areas near the valley are vastly used
for agricultural purposes. Thus, the variability in rainfall will
result either in the destruction of crops or in water scarcity in
many regions during non-monsoon seasons, which also af-
fects the agricultural output that is primarily governed by the
timely availability of water. The coastal areas are developing
as industrial areas with the emergence of numerous heavy
industries. Consequently, in future, the growth in population
with a high demand for water for irrigation and industries will
reduce the available water resources. Hence, it is important to
conserve water resources in the coastal area. The present paper
attempts to study the historical rainfall trend and the rainfall
events in the Western Ghats region of India. The objective of
the study is to test and establish relationship between the rain-
fall indices in mountainous terrain and coastal region. The
data can be of help for the authorities to devise strategies for
water resource management and for farmers who are largely
dependent on the monsoon for farming.
Study area
The Western Ghats of India in the state of Karnataka has
been chosen for the study. The study area is located be-
tween 11° 50′ and 15° 48′ N along the latitude and be-
tween 74° 5′ and 76° 14′ E along the longitude. The
Western Ghats are a chain of mountains parallel to the
west coast of India. The coastal plain of Karnataka is a
narrow strip of land with a width of 20 km at some places,
and the mountains extend up to the Arabian Sea. The
average elevation of the Western Ghats is about 900 m
above mean sea level (MSL) (Francis and Gadgil 2006).
Western Ghats is the origin of several rivers such as the
Kavery, Sita, Swarna, Varahi, and Gangolli. According to
Tawde and Singh (2015), mountain ranges in the Western
Ghats block the moist air rising from the Arabian Sea,
thereby causing low rainfall on the eastern side of the
Western Ghats of Karnataka. Due to the orographic effect,
western part (windward side) of the Western Ghats and
the coastal plains receive intense rainfall (Francis and
Gadgil 2006). Revadekar et al. (2011) reported that the
frequency of heavy rainfall events along the coastal plains
of Karnataka shows a declining trend in the future. These
studies along with the economic importance of the region
motivated the present study. The location of the study area
is shown in Fig. 1.
Datasets and methodology
The meteorological data used in the study involves high-
resolution gridded rainfall dataset. The dataset is available
Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327 Page 3 of 13 327

Fig. 1 Study location

327 Page 4 of 13 Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327

at 0.25° × 0.25° resolution and is provided by the India
Meteorological Department for a period of 113 years
(1901–2013) (Pai et al. 2013). The Advanced Space borne
Thermal Emission and Reflection Digital Elevation Model
(ASTER DEM) is used to extract the elevation informa-
tion of topography.
The grid points selected for analysis within the bound-
ary of study area were extracted as individual rainfall
values from the high-resolution daily rainfall gridded data
for the time series of 1901–2013. The grid points were
differentiated within the region on the basis of its location
and elevation, which is also similar to the agro metrolog-
ical division of Karnataka. The west coast of India is
under the influence of sea/land breeze circulation, and
the spatial rainfall variability due to orographic rainfall
is affected by the sea/land breeze circulation (Rani et al.
2010). Hence, the low-lying areas of the Western Ghats in
Karnataka up to 140 m above MSL are prone to intense
rainfall (Tawde and Singh 2015).
The grid points were distinctly classified into two cat-
egories in the present study as shown in Fig. 1 (b). The
grid points lying below 200 m above MSL are classified
as low land points (LL), and the grid points above 200 m
elevation are classified as high land points (HL). About
17 grid points are located in LL, and 21 grid points are
found in HL. The HL points are spread across the high
elevation areas of the Western Ghats.
The spatial distribution of heavy rainfall was studied,
and its trends were analyzed using the time series of rain-
fall indices. The rainfall indices used in the study were the
general rainfall indices (i.e., RR, Rx1, CWD, and SDII)
and threshold rainfall indices (i.e., R100, R65, R2.5-65,
R40, and R20). Table 1 gives a brief description of the
rainfall indices used in this study.
The Mann-Kendall trend test was used in this study to
determine the trend of rainfall indices over long-term period
(1901–2013). The stepwise methodology adopted to ascer-
tain the long-term temporal and spatial variability of
extreme precipitation indices is shown in Fig. 2. The non-
parametric Mann-Kendall test is frequently used for the de-
tection of trend in hydro-meteorological time-series data
(Mann 1945; Kahya and Kalayci 2004; Partal and Kahya
2006; Suryavanshi et al. 2014; Doranalu Chandrashekar et
al. 2017). The test is recommended by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO 1988). The Mann-
Kendall test has several advantages as it has no assumption
of normality and variance homogeneity (Kendall 1975).
Also, the test relates median rather than mean and is resis-
tant to the effects of outliers (Suryavanshi et al. 2014).
Results and discussion
Preliminary analysis
Table 2 shows the initial analysis of the gridded daily
rainfall data. The LL regions showed that mean annual
rainfall varies from 3036 to 4496 mm from narrow moun-
tain ranges to wider coastal strips. The standard deviation
of rainfall varies from 581 to 1881 mm, and the skewness
varied between − 0.089 and 1.49. The average value of
predominant positive skew distribution was 0.69. The an-
nual rainfall during the period from 1901 to 2013 is asym-
metric along the ridge line of the Western Ghats. The grid
points LL1, LL14, and LL17 were on the left of the mean
(lesser), and the remaining were found to the right of the
mean (higher). The kurtosis varied from 0.03 to 4.88 with
an average value of about 1.55. The coefficient of varia-
tion (CV) of rainfall varied between 15.74% near the
coastline (at LL12) and 36.65% near the foot of the
Western Ghats (LL9). The average CV in the coastal re-
gion was found to be 21.75%.
The analysis of daily rainfall data over the HL region
showed that the mean annual rainfall varies from
1168 mm in the eastern portion of the Western Ghats
(HL10) to 3365 mm at the peaks of the mountain ranges

Table 1 Brief description of rainfall indices

Index Definition Units Significance

RR Total annual rainfall Millimeters Annual magnitude of rainfall

CWD Number of rainy days in a year (with rainfall intensity ≥ 2.5 mm/day) Days Rainy days
Rx1 One-day annual highest rainfall amount Millimeters High intensity rainfall
SDII Average intensity of daily rainfall in a year (with rainfall intensity ≥ 2.5 mm/day) Millimeters/day Daily intensity of rainfall
R100 No. of days in a year with rainfall intensity ≥ 100 mm/day Days Very heavy rainfall
R65 No. of days in a year with rainfall intensity between 100 mm/day and 65 mm/day Days Heavy rainfall
R2.5-65 No. of days in a year with rainfall intensity between 65 mm/day and 2.5 mm/day Days Moderate rainfall
R40 No. of days in a year with rainfall intensity between 65 mm/day and 40 mm/day Days Average rainfall
R20 No. of days in a year with rainfall intensity between 40 mm/day and 20 mm/day Days Low rainfall
Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327 Page 5 of 13 327

Fig. 2 Methodology for trend

assessment of ETCCDI extreme I/P daily rainfall time series of 38 grid
points from 0.25 deg IMD gridded
precipitation indices adopted in precipitation data for the stydy area
the present study

Preparation of Annual and seasonal

timeseries of ETCCDI, extreme
precipitation Indices

Intensity Frequency

CWD, R100, R65, R2.5-65,

RR, RX1day, SDII
R40, R20

Estimate the trend

magnitude in time series Yes
Is Time series
using Sen's Slope Correlated ?

No

Perform Mann-Kendall test on

Pre-whiten the time series to
non-auto correlated time series
remove serial correlation.
to detect presence of trends

Represent the spatial variability and

nature of trends in extreme
precipitation indices over west coast
of Karnataka, India.

in the west (HL15). The standard deviation varied from 398 mm
(HL18) to 1203 mm (HL11). The skewness varied between 0.53
and 4.02 with an average value of predominant positive skew
distribution of 1.32, indicating an asymmetric annual rainfall.
The kurtosis for grid point HL4 was found to be − 0.01 and
indicated a flatter distribution. The kurtosis varied between 0.1
and 19.05 with an average value of 3.86. The CV of rainfall
varied between 21.61% (HL15) and 47.56% (HL10) with an
average CV of 28.53%. The comparison of preliminary
rainfall analysis over both the regions showed that the
grid points with intense rainfall in the LL have lesser
variability and grid points with lower rainfall in the HL
have more variability of rainfall.
The results of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test at
the 5% significance level are shown in Table 3. The majority
of the precipitation indices as evaluated by the time series of
the data set appear to have no significant lag-1 serial corre-
lation coefficient. Table 3 summarizes the total number of
significant serial correlations, as well as significant increas-
ing and decreasing trends of each index during the study
period 1901–2013.
Rainfall characteristics
Figure 3 shows the spatial distribution of annual average
values of the general rainfall indices over the LL and
HL region during 1901–2013. Figure 3a presents the
spatial distribution of long-term annual rainfall. The
magnitude of the annual rainfall was found to be max-
imum over the coastal region and was observed to re-
duce toward the eastern side of the Western Ghats of
Karnataka. This is in line with the findings of Tawde
and Singh (2015), according to which, the low intensity
rainfall in the eastern part of the Western Ghats is ar-
guably due to the blockade of moist air raised from the
Arabian Sea by the mountain ranges. Intense rainfall
was observed near the coastline and adjacent to the
coastal plains. This is generally due to the orographic
rainfall, and similar results were found in the study by
Francis and Gadgil (2006). Figure3a shows heavy rain-
fall on the southwest portion of the Western Ghats near
coast and low rainfall on the eastern side of the Western
Ghats of Karnataka.
327 Page 6 of 13 Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327

Table 2 Annual statistics of daily gridded rainfall of individual grid points over coastal region (LL) and Western Ghats (HL) region

Grid Latitude Longitude Elevation Mean rainfall Min rainfall Max rainfall Std. deviation Coefficient of Kurtosis Skew
points (deg N) (deg E) (meters) (mm) (mm) (mm) (mm) variation (%)

LL1 14 74.5 000 4186 2714 7013 725 17.31 1.46 0.69
LL2 14.75 74.25 117 3442 2028 5560 581 16.87 0.74 0.53
LL3 12.75 75 117 3987 2233 6999 628 15.74 4.21 1.01
LL4 13 75 069 4220 2305 6543 650 15.40 1.23 0.44
LL5 13.25 74.75 013 4319 2438 6534 738 17.08 0.30 0.16
LL6 13.5 74.75 012 4496 2506 7988 1034 22.99 0.73 0.90
LL7 13.75 74.75 075 4433 2181 9651 1306 29.46 3.26 1.49
LL8 14 74.75 029 3864 1247 5185 781 20.21 1.09 0.65
LL9 14.25 74.5 057 3925 1964 6621 1391 35.43 1.05 1.31
LL10 14.5 74.5 086 3036 2141 8817 753 24.81 1.16 1.10
LL11 14.75 74.5 183 3819 1800 5703 717 18.76 0.57 0.04
LL12 12.5 75.5 116 4191 1853 5970 689 16.45 2.99 0.54
LL13 12.75 75.25 114 4165 2012 7218 696 16.72 4.88 0.92
LL14 13 75.25 062 4227 1939 7501 928 21.95 0.03 0.09
LL15 13.25 75 092 4155 1820 6592 1881 45.27 0.59 1.30
LL16 13.5 75 055 3049 1793 9793 754 24.74 1.42 1.00
LL17 13.75 75 108 3124 1495 8145 717 18.76 0.77 1.09
HL1 14 75 642 3028 1139 5869 818 27.00 0.10 0.53
HL2 14.25 74.75 605 3830 1765 5668 1203 31.42 1.65 1.12
HL3 14.5 74.75 582 2347 1483 4341 804 34.24 3.50 1.50
HL4 14.75 74.75 514 2611 1083 4159 574 21.98 −0.01 0.63
HL5 15 74.5 480 2179 1394 4928 483 22.17 3.03 1.14
HL6 12.25 75.75 639 2443 903 4849 589 24.09 2.22 1.02
HL7 12.75 75.5 863 2095 1618 6357 588 28.08 4.52 1.41
HL8 12.5 75.5 1066 1477 610 3196 454 30.78 1.36 0.82
HL9 13 75.5 434 2282 1161 5635 615 26.94 6.92 1.73
HL10 13.25 75.25 949 3366 1873 5771 727 21.61 0.50 0.62
HL11 13.5 75.25 692 3005 1206 5825 668 22.23 2.46 0.87
HL12 13.75 75.25 663 2536 1220 5615 629 24.82 4.57 1.28
HL13 14 75.25 637 1168 553 4314 556 47.56 19.05 4.02
HL14 14.25 75 602 1797 1021 4698 570 31.72 10.72 2.74
HL15 15 74.75 559 1699 757 3753 497 29.23 4.44 1.30
HL16 15.25 74.5 529 1998 1088 3945 511 25.58 1.79 1.07
HL17 15.5 74.5 711 1729 846 3437 500 28.93 1.26 0.89
HL18 12 76 815 1471 638 3933 442 30.01 7.74 1.71
HL19 12.75 75.75 940 1770 821 3167 398 22.51 1.77 0.63
HL20 13.25 75.5 745 2190 1312 5119 805 36.75 2.59 1.68
HL21 13.5 75.5 818 1829 839 3665 576 31.46 1.10 1.08

The 1-day annual highest rainfall (Rx1) index shows
that the highest values occur in the northern portion of
the LL and central portion the HL. The lowest values for
Rx1 were on the eastern side of HL region, i.e., eastern
side of the Western Ghats (Fig. 3b). CWD ranges from
65 days in the rain shadow region to more than 155 days
in the Western Ghats. An increasing gradient in rainy
days was found along the southwest region of the study
area (Fig. 3c). The average intensity of daily rainfall in a
year (SDII), with rainfall intensity ≥ 2.5 mm/day, was
almost similar to Rx1 (Fig. 3d). However, the highest
intensity of about 28 mm/day was observed in the north-
ern region of LL and central region of HL. The lowest
SDII (less than 6 mm/day) were observed on the leeward
side of the Western Ghats. Hence, there is intense rainfall
in the LL region, i.e., windward side of the Western
Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327
Table 3 Lag-1 significant serial
correlations and MK trend test Variable No. of No. of significant
results at the 5% level significant
serial Increasing
correlation trend
RR 7 16
RX1 17 8 3
CWD 6 9
SDII 5 14
R100 12 11
R65 16 12
R2.5_65 8 6
R40 15 12
R20 22 9 3
Ghats. This could also be due to the fact that Western
Ghats in Karnataka are cascaded and are broader leading
to intense rainfall (Tawde and Singh 2015).
Figure 4 shows the results of trend analysis for the
general rainfall indices. The total annual rainfall, RR,
exhibits a mixed trend and ranges from − 6.0 to
23 mm/year over a period of 113 years (1901 to 2013).
It may be observed from Fig. 4a that the increase is
significant at a confidence level of 99% throughout most
parts of the study area, especially the region in north-
west (i.e., from Karwar to Kundapura). In the LL region,
most of the grid points show a statistically significant
increase in the trend (99.9%) with a magnitude of
21 mm/year. Some of the grid points show significant
decrease in the trend with a magnitude of 8 mm/decade.
The mountainous HL region shows a mixed trend. The
rainy days depict a mixed trend, the most portion of the
study region shows significant increase in the trend that
ranges between − 2.6 and 2.4 days/decade (Fig. 4c). Rx1
shows a decreasing trend in the central and southeast
portion of the study area and ranges from − 3 to 9 mm/
decade (Fig. 4c). The spatial distribution of 1-day annual
highest rainfall amount, Rx1, was found to be scattered,
and the Rx1 index in the north-west of LLs and high
lands is found to be very strong than in the south. The
decrease in Rx1 can be attributed to rapid urbanization in
the central and southeast highland regions of the Western
Ghats (Singh et al. 2014). Interestingly, the total annual
rainfall (RR) was found to be increasing, whereas the
number of rainy days (CWD) was found to be decreas-
ing. Therefore, a remarkable increase in the trend of
SDII can be observed across most of the grid points.
The SDII varied between 0.53 and 1.6 mm/day/decade.
This variation in trend indexes the likelihood influence
of global climate change, local urbanization, and topog-
raphy on the rainfall events. These findings agree with
the early study of Meher-Homji (1980) who found out
Page 7 of 13 327
No. of non-significant No
trend
Decreasing Increasing Decreasing
trend trend trend
5 6 11 –
17 10 –
10 12 7 –
12 8 4 –
2 – 1 24
1 1 4 20
11 9 9 3
2 6 5 13
6 5 15
the strengthening of the rainfall intensity in the Western
Ghats of Karnataka due to the vicinity of the seas.
Spatial distribution of rainfall frequency
Figure 5 shows the spatial distribution of average annual
values of the rainfall event frequency indices over the LL
and HL region during 1901–2013. Intense rainfall was
observed along the coastline and the stretch of confluence
between coastal plains and western part of the Western
Ghats. The intense rain events such as R100 were very
common at the coastal locations and are consistent with
the results. Similar results were reported earlier (Francis
and Gadgil 2006; Konwar et al. 2012). It is interesting to
know that moderate rainfall dominated the spatial distri-
bution of rainfall over elevated HL regions (Konwar et al.
2012, 2014). Very heavy rainfall (R100) and heavy rain-
fall (R65) events were found to occur for more than 8 and
12 days, respectively, in LL region and portrayed a de-
creasing gradient from west to east, on the eastern side of
the Western Ghats (Fig. 5a, b). The spatial distribution of
moderate and average threshold rainfall ranged between
62 and 139 days and 1 and 35 days, respectively (Fig. 5c,
d). The shallow convective orographic clouds induced
forced condensation process over the mountainous terrain
resulting in low rainfall in the HL region (Revadekar et al.
2011; Konwar et al. 2012, 2014). The spatial distribution
of R20 varied from 7 to 36 days (Fig. 5e). The low rain-
fall days were more in the south-western region of the
study area. The indices for heavy to low rainfall intensity
days are consistent in the spatial distribution. Extreme
values were found in the coastal region, and decreasing
gradient of low intensity rainfall was found on the lee-
ward side of the study area.
Figure 6 shows the spatial patterns of trends for the
frequency of rainfall indices over the study region during
1901–2013. The spatial patterns of the rainfall frequency
327 Page 8 of 13
Fig. 3 a–d Spatial distribution of
annual average values of the
general rainfall indices over the
low land and high land region
during 1901–2013
indices considered for the study show no trend in some
of the grid points in both LL and HL region. The very
heavy rainfall (R100) and heavy rainfall (R65) indices
indicate significant increase in the trend and few grid
points show decrease in the trend which ranges between
0.74 to − 0.217 days/decade and 0.73 to 0.51 days/de-
cade (Fig. 6a, b). The moderate rainfall event (R2.5-65)
Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327
shows mixed trend with positive fluctuations which
ranges from − 2.61 to 1.96 days/decade (Fig. 6c). The
R40 index exhibits increase in trend in 17 grid points
from both regions; whereas, significant increase in trend
was observed in LL of magnitude 0.81 days/decade. The
R20 rainfall event shows significant increase in trend in
the HL region; whereas, few grid points show significant
Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327 Page 9 of 13 327

Fig. 4 a–d Spatial patterns of

temporal trends of the general
rainfall indices over the low land
and high land region during
1901–2013

decrease in the trend. The overall range was found to be
between 9.37 and 0.605 days/decade. The rainfall indices
of average to very heavy rainfall frequencies found sim-
ilar pattern of spatial distribution with significant in-
crease and decrease in the trend.
As a consequence, the above spatial analysis of rain-
fall frequency suggests that the frequency and contribu-
tion of the heavy rainfall have increased in north-west
portion of the LL and adjacent HL region. This observa-
tion is supported by the findings of Maheshkumar et al.
327 Page 10 of 13
Fig. 5 a–e Spatial distribution of annual average values of the threshold rainfall event frequency indices over the low land and high land region during
1901–2013
(2014), which showed a significantly increasing trend in
the rainfall event in the western portion of the LL and
the HL region of the Western Ghats. The study argued
that this is primarily due to the coexistence of shallow
and deep convective clouds in the moist adiabatic strat-
ification regime. Further, the findings of Francis and
Gadgil (2006), which reported the occurrence of heavy
rainfall events during mid-June to mid-August as a result
of offshore troughs and vortices, also support our study
observations.
Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327
Correlation coefficients of rainfall indices
The correlation between the rainfall indices are shown in
Fig. 7 and tested with 99% confidence level. The results indi-
cate that the rainfall frequency indices (R100, R65, R40, and
R20) are correlated. The total annual rainfall over the LL and
HL region were in agreement with the present study. The
correlation coefficients were found to be 0.84, 0.84, 0.78,
and 0.42 over the LL region; whereas, in HL region, the cor-
relation coefficients were found to be 0.71, 0.79, 0.83, and
Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327
Fig. 6 a–e Spatial patterns of trends for the frequency of threshold rainfall indices over the study region during 1901–2013
0.66, respectively (Fig. 7d–f) and also statistically significant
at 0.01 confidence level. The heavy rainfall contributes to the
increase in the rainfall over the LL region during the period
1901 to 2013. However, low rainfall indices over both the
regions clearly show that R40 and R20 are significantly cor-
related in LL region and HL regions, respectively. Meanwhile,
the correlation coefficients of RR and Rx1 day, CWD, and
SDII are significant at 99% confidence level (Fig. 7a–c), with
values 0.55, 0.54, and 0.86 for the LL region and 0.57, 0.59,
and 0.88 for the HL region. The correlation coefficient of
moderate rainfall (R2.5-65) was found to be 0.33 in HL region
Page 11 of 13 327
and statistically insignificant in the LL region (less than 0.30).
One day maximum rainfall and rainy days have less variation
and low impact on the total annual rainfall over both the re-
gions during the study period (1901–2013).
Conclusion
The purpose analyzing the daily rainfall gridded data was
to determine whether or not the observed trends in rainfall
events during the last 113 years in the coastal region and
327 Page 12 of 13 Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327

(a) (b) (c)

HL LL HL LL
HL LL
300 300 35 50
R = 0.57 R = 0.55 160 190 R = 0.88 R = 0.86
Y = 26.12+0.04195*X Y = 59.97+0.02383*X R = 0.59 R = 0.54 Y = 6.27+0.00526*X
Y = 3.62+0.00600*X
150 Y = 83.54360+0.01301*X 180 Y = 93.50945+0.00904*X 45
250 30
250
140 170
40
200 160 25
130

SDII (mm/day)
RX1 day (mm)

200 150

CWD (days)
35
120
150 140 20
110 30
150 130
100 100 15
120 25
100 90 110
50 10 20
80 100
0 50 70 90 5 15
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2500 3500 4500 5500 6500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2500 3500 4500 5500 6500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
RR(mm) RR(mm) RR (mm) RR (mm) RR(mm) RR(mm)

(d) LL
(e) (f)
HL
HL LL
10 20 HL LL
R = 0.71 12 25
R = 0.84 R = 0.79 R = 0.84 20 35
Y = -2.31+0.00239*X 18 Y = -7.44+0.00331*X Y = -1.97+0.00290*X Y = -3.30+0.00329*X R = 0.83 R = 0.78
18 Y = -0.9+0.00410*X Y = 1.32+0.00408*X
16 10
8 20 30
14 16
8
12 14 25
6 15
R100 (days)

R65 (days)

R40 (days)
10 12
6 20
4 8 10 10
4 8 15
6

2 4 5 6
2 10
2 4

0 0 0 0 2 5
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
RR(mm) RR(mm) RR(mm) RR(mm) RR(mm) RR(mm)

Fig. 7 a–f Correlations between the rainfall indices over the low land and high land region during 1901–2013

Western Ghats of Karnataka are statistically significant. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall unveils inter
The study examined whether any variability in the rainfall (intra) seasonal variability linked primarily to quasi-
pattern across these regions exists and also explored the biennial and ENSO phenomenon (Madden Julian
possible causes and implications of this variability. Oscillation) respectively. The low frequency modes affect
Application of non-parametric Mann-Kendall’s test indi- almost the entire Indian subcontinental rainfall; however,
cated the existence of a statistically significant increasing the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity, which has
trend in the frequency of very heavy and heavy rainfall an oscillatory scale of 30–60 days, strongly modulates
events and a significantly decreasing trend in moderate the rainfall activity at different meteorological subdivi-
rainfall at the region of heavy rainfall events. Further, the sions of India depending upon the status (time and loca-
spatial analyses of rainfall frequency suggested an increase tion) of MJO (Singh and Bhatla 2018). Anandh et al.
in the frequency and contribution of the heavy rainfall in (2018) suggest that the eastward propagation of the
north-west portion of the LL and adjacent HL region. The MJO over the Indian Ocean modulates rainfall across
study pointed out that the coexistence of shallow and deep the India and neighboring seas and countries. Studies
convective clouds in the moist adiabatic stratification re- by Pai et al. (2011) and Nazemosadat and Ghaedamini
gime was the reason for this increase. The variations in the (2010) find that the real-time information of the phase of
temporal features of the rainfall were also analyzed in the MJO provides an opportunity for qualitative prediction of
study. The study observed a decreasing trend in Rx1 in the the intraseasonal variability of rainfall, mainly the onset
central and southeast portion of the study area that ranges and length of the break and active events. Studies have
from − 3 to 9 mm/decade and also revealed an increase in also shown a significant positive correlation of rainfall
the total annual rainfall (RR) and a considerable decrease over coastal Karnataka and adjoining regions with
in the number of rainy days (CWD). convectively active zones associated with MJO
The decrease in CWD implies a reduction in the number (Seetharam 2008).
of wet spells, which could critically affect the water avail- These findings lead to the conclusion that the varia-
ability during the growing season of rain-fed crops and tions in trend is influenced by global warming,
result in reduced crop yields. Such spatio-temporal infor- burgeoning urbanization, and deforestation. If the rain-
mation would be useful for the planners and policy makers fall trend remains unchanged (Karuna Sagar et al.
for the implementation of location-specific adaptation and 2016), rainstorms and heavy precipitation which may
mitigation measures against drought vulnerability of the lead to serious consequences such as floods and land-
region. A strong correlation exists between total rainfall slides may be predicted in the future. The availability of
and other rainfall indices, especially heavy rainfall indices water resources in the study region during the non-
which are responsible for the increase in rainfall. The monsoon seasons may also get affected with the present
changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events trend in rainfall. Future research can analyze the asso-
would have adverse effects on human lives, infrastructure, ciation of rainfall variability with global warming and
natural resources, and ecosystem. urbanization.
Arab J Geosci (2018) 11: 327
Acknowledgments I, author Vinay D C, gratefully acknowledge and ex-
press my sincere thanks to Bhupendra Bahadur Singh, Scientist, Centre
for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,
Pune, India, for the encouragement and support in carrying out the re-
search work and their valuable suggestions for the improvement of this
manuscript. Thanks are also due to two anonymous reviewers whose
constructive comments have greatly improved the revised manuscript.
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