Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Resources Development Projects
in the Blue Nile Basin on Nile
River Inflows at Aswan
Osama M. Tarabih
Assistant Lecturer ‐ Cairo University
Overview
Introduction
Methodology
Data Collection
Model Setup
Baseline Simulation
Scenarios and Results
Conclusion & Recommendations
Introduction
Nile River
EN Basin EQ Lakes Basin
(85%) (15%)
BAS TAS BN MN
Cont., Introduction: Study Area
Flow at Blue Nile.
BN Existing Reservoirs.
Dam Storage Capacity
(BCM) (MW)
Sennar 0.5 Null Rahad
Roseires 6.4 415
Dinder
Cont., Introduction
Problem Statement.
BN Proposed Dams:
Dam Storage Capacity
(BCM) (MW)
Karadobi 40.2 1600
Beko Abo 31.7 1940
Mandaya 49.5 2000
Renaissance 74 6000
Research Objectives:
Base line reference for BN
basin.
Impacts of the Proposed
dams in BN basin.
Methodology
Data Collection & Processing
Terrain Soil Land Meteorological Observed schematic Projects
Data Data Cover Data Flow Data Data
Calibration & Runoff
SWAT Validation (Time Series)
Baseline
Simulation
Verification Hec‐ResSim
Development
Scenarios
Conclusions & Recommendations
6
Data Collection
Data required for Reservoir simulation Model
Model Schematic Data :
‐River Network: (USGS HydroSHEDS)
‐Junctions
Existing & Proposed Projects Data:
‐ Reservoir Data:
(ENTRO Hydropower Toolkit, 2012)
Flow Data:
‐ Observed Flow Records
‐ Junctions Inflows: (Time series flow)
Observed Arc‐SWAT
Flow
SWAT Model
River Land Soil Meteorological
Network Outlets Cover Data Data
Basin
Write weather
Sub‐catchments Basin HRUs data to each
sub‐catchment
hydrological
computations
on HRU s
Generated Run off (Time Series) at
outlets 8
SWAT Calibration and Validation
Khartoum Station
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Nov‐81 Mar‐83 Aug‐84 Dec‐85 May‐87 Sep‐88 Jan‐90
8000
Flow (cms)
6000
4000
2000 Where,
0 - NSE : Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency
Nov‐90 Apr‐92 Aug‐93 Jan‐95 May‐96 Sep‐97 Feb‐99 Jun‐00 Coefficient
9
- R2 : coefficient of determination
Hec‐ResSim Model
‐Create Alternatives
for operational data ,
initial conditions, flow
data.
Watershed Reservoir
Simulation
Setup Network
Module
Module Module
10
Model Setup
Model extended to HAD.
Junction inflows : (Generated
SWAT Flows)
Other basins :
‐ White Nile at Khartoum
‐ Atbara
Temporal extend : (1982 ‐ 2003)
11
Model verification
• HAD verification
R2 = 0.93
Dongola Station Monthly Sim Monthly Obs
NS = 0.90
14000
12000
10000
Flow (cms)
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Dec‐81 Feb‐84 Apr‐86 Jul‐88 Sep‐90 Nov‐92 Jan‐95 Apr‐97 Jun‐99 Aug‐01 Nov‐03
R2 = 0.92
HAD Monthly Pool Elevation Monthly Sim Monthly Obs
NS = 0.90
185
Pool Elevation (masl)
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
Sep‐81 May‐84 Feb‐87 Nov‐89 Aug‐92 May‐95 Feb‐98 Oct‐00 Jul‐03
12
Baseline Simulation
Storage Installed Operatio
Merowe (BCM) Capacity (MW) n Year
Dam
12 1250 2010
Dongola Station_Mean Monthly Flow
Zero Case Base Case
20000
18000
16000
14000
Flow (MCM)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
13
Scenarios and Results
Type Scen. Description
01 Ren.640 Rah.
Hydropower
02 Ren.640 + Karadobi
03 Ren.640 + Beko Abo
04 Ren.640 + Mandaya Ken.
Ren.640 + Kar. + B.A. +
05
Man.
06 Ren.640 + Irrigation
H.P. +
Irr
07 Scen.05 + Irrigation
Did.
Fin.
14
Cont., Scenarios and Results
Dongola Mean Monthly Flow
Base Case Scen_01 Scen_02 Scen_03 Scen_04 Scen_05 Scen_06 Scen07
16000
14000
12000
10000
Flow (MCM)
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
month
Cont., Scenarios and Results
HAD Annual Pool Elevation (masl)
Base Case Scen_01 Scen_02 Scen_03 Scen_04 Scen_05 Scen_06 Scen_07
185
180
175
Pool Elevation (masl)
170
165
160
155
150
145
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Years
Cont., Scenarios and Results
Reductions at HAD
Scen. Type
Scen. Pool Elevation
Flow (BCM) Power (%)
(m)
Max Mean Max Mean Max Mean
Scen.01 16.67 8.54 19.95 10.97 23.01 17.37
H.P. Scenarios
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