2 Rephrase 1551

In China's river basin, a significant variation has been noticed in the streamflow (Miao et al. 2011;
Fu et al. 2009; Wang et al. 2007; Zhang et al. 2006). The streamflow decrease, as observed today
is mainly due the morphing climate and activities of human as given in myriad of studies (Faiz et
al. 2017; Miao et al. 2011; Onuchin et al. 2006; Yang and Tian 2009). At the north-eastern part of
China lies the seventh biggest watershed popular as the Songhua River Basin (SRB). The studies
conducted before finds, that throughout the period between 1998 to 2013 the severe droughts and
harsh rainstorms are also witnessed in the SRB. For instance, during the fall of the 1990s, the
extreme rough dry season was observed in the northern region of China (Zou et al. 2005).
Likewise, Li et al. (2014); Liang et al. (2011); Xu et al. (2010) notices, that between the years 1960
to 2008, the yearly volume of precipitation astonishingly falls from 4 to 11 percent. According to
the interpretation of Li et al. (2014), sporadic growth in the temperature in the river basin of
Songhua is observed while temporal and spatial changes in all variable of climate are also found.
The researcher noticed that an annual increase in the volume of precipitation up to 1.65 mm (per
year) over 82 percent at the basin whereas the temperature grows up to 1°C-1.5 °C (Khan et al,
2016 & Song et al., 2015). The variation in the stream flow at the SRB is influentially impacted
by these changes in the volume of rainfall and temperature (Miao et al. 2011; Mu et al. 2012).
However, the previous studies also maintain that the changing and alteration caused in streamflow
in the SRB depended on the set data of climate. For instance, according to the findings of Li et al.
(2016), 37.5 per cent alleviation in the streamflow is observed in the lower delta of SRB.
Wherewithal, the findings of Yu et al. (2016) at gauging station Fuyu near SRB, noticed
streamflow decline, by applying the sixteen GCMS under the emission scenario. Again, at many
of the gauging stations around the SRB, the historical declining trend of annual discharge is
notified in the work of Li et al (2014). Unfortunately, so far less sufficient studies have been
conducted in SRB. There is a significant need to deal with this problem in order to manage the
water resource, therefore, the substantial factors and parameters which influenced the variation in
the streamflow need to be taken into account. As most of the studies and literature discussed in
aforesaid studies merely deals with the impact of increasing and decreasing variation of climatic
variables (such as precipitation) on the streamflow. Yet hardly the factors and parameters like the
impact of variation in water consumption, land cover, land use on the streamflow change has been
studied so far, which need to address.
The present study focuses on the Songhua River’s lower stream (1370 km) which in comparison
to the of the whole river basin of Songhua, has witnessed a significant decrease in the streamflow.
At the same lower stream Songhua River lies Songnen Plain which is one of the fertile lands of
China with chief production of crops. In relation to its significance as the agricultural land, the
analysis of the factors of climate change, land cover and hydrological balance variation would help
to propose a plan for water resource management. The paper will address the question as what
major factors lie behind the streamflow decline in the Lower SBR stream? Proposing the answer
for this is highly crucial for water resources arrangement and management. The strong points can
be provided for policy making a decision if the land in use and cover is found as a predominant
factor of variations. Yet, studying the variant climate situation in SRB lower region, assessing its
impact on water resources become potent if the variables of climatic change find more influential
driving force. Therefore, the given study undertakes both factors to address the problem. The
trends of stream flow and climatic factors are assessed for the 20th and 21st century. These factors
were bias corrected to site scale using a bias correction method for climate change projection.
Likewise, for according to these predictions the hydrological simulation is conducted. Secondly
applying the geospatial software, the variation in land use and cover are projected and then in order
to the address changing’s vulnerability in the lower SRB the projected data is implemented on the
opted model. This paper is aim to evaluate the hydrology of SRB in relation to the role of land
cover/land use and climate changes and variation. With the purpose to attain the objective of the
paper, the climatic and hydro factors for late 20th and completely 21st century is studied in the SRB.
Therefore, in this study, the historical climate variables are simulated by evaluating and gauging
all historical data records and GCMs from CMIPS and RCP, in order to forecast PAP and SAT as
the future variable of climate. Most importantly to carry out the whole research work, the water
evaluation and planning tool (WEAP) is used as a potent tool to analyse the contribution of the
domestic water use, agricultural water demand, and land use change in the streamflow projection.
The methodology section provides the key components of the WEAP model. Initially, the WEAP
is validated and calibrated with historical situations of climate avoiding any consideration of
another parameter. Secondly, the model is applied to forecast the variation in percentage for the
two periods 1964 to 2013 and 2014 to 2099, affecting with the factors like domestic use of water,
agricultural water demand and land cover change.
2. Data Set
The data of over the period of 1964 to 2013 recorded in sixteen metrological stations is provided
by the National Meteorological Administration, Heilongjiang Province of China. This includes the
weather condition information of precipitation, wind speed, humidity, sunshine hours and daily
temperature. The Hydrological Administration of Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China, supplied
with the daily streamflow data useful for the second period (1964 to 2013). The hydrological and
metrological data’s quality is assured by the respective departments. Besides this, the 15 GCMs
from CMIPS 5 are acquired from http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/esgf-web-fe/ (see Table S1), in order to
examine the performance of GCMs and envisage variables of climate (SAT and PP), for the
duration of 1964 to 2005 and 2006-2099. The 15 GCMs worked efficiently to evaluate the study
of GCMs for forecasting the temperature and precipitation the China (Sun et al. 2015).
Since the Heilongjiang Province also lies in the premises of the SRB, thus the historical data is
gained from the Statistical Year Book of Heilongjiang (Bureau 2013) and is used to analyse the
human activities effect on the stream flow.
Methods
3.1 WEAP Model
The WEAP model is utilized by many researchers in the study of variant parts of the world, for
the hydrological catchment and deliberate on how catchment hydrology integrated into WEAP
(Vicuña et al. 2012, Rheinheimer et al. 2016). This finds that WEAP is a semi-distributed model
for the river basin, which is most generally, applied for simulating a system of ware resources,
performing trade-off analysis and modelling effect of climate change on hydrology. The soil
moisturization method of WEAP is relied upon. The evapotranspiration, deep percolations the sub-
surface and surface runoff (i.e., interflow) are those features upon which WEAP method of soil
moisturization rests. Figure 1 illustrates the schematic diagram of soil moisture. The soil m
moisture method is considered as the most multifaceted method of WEAP due to the geographical
features of land and soil. The two buckets represent the soil moisture as the first indicates
precipitation while the fluctuation between the soil layer is represented in the second model (Yates
et al. 2005).
By means of wind speed, temperature, precipitation and relative humidity across each catchment
the basin runoff input is calculated by the WEAP model. (check this line The WEAP model
computes the basin runoff by using precipitation, relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed
across each catchment area as input). The model parameters are calibrated by the available data
series from 1964–2000 (described in equation S1-“supplementary material”).
3.2. Assessment of Anthropogenic Effects on Stream Flow Change
a) Analysis of Land Cover Change
The hydrology of the basin can be morphed with the variation in land cover and use. Since land
use and cover are driving force to influence the hydrologic changes, thus, in the evaluation of
hydrology of basin, the examination of driving factors is of significant importance and
requirement. Therefore, an institutional data sets of the land cover for the year of 1992, 2000, and
2015 is acquired (China Globe land data
(http://www.globallandcover.com/GLC30Download/index.aspx European Space Agency
(http://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer), USGS (https://landcover.usgs.gov/glc/). Further, the Terr
Set software- a tool as a land change modeler is installed, for the purpose to interpret the land cover
variation from 1992 to 2015 (https://clarklabs.org). the change in the dynamics of land can easily
be detected with the land change modeler. The analysis given in the study corresponds to quantify
particular land cover over the basin in term of net losses and gain. An equation as given below is
applied to measure variation between time duration;

 A B 
Percentage chnage    100
 B 
Where, A is equivalent to the area of land cover and land use in the time period of 2,
B is equivalent to an area of land cover/ land use in time period 1.
The images of land cover and land use are categorised into four groups. Such as:
i. Urban area
ii. Grassland
iii. Forest
iv. Croplands
As figure 2 displayed the land use variation impact over the river basin. The cropland is
significantly expanded during the years1992 to 2000. The agricultural development over the land
led to this expansion in the area of cropland. Likewise, industrial advancement led to expanding
the urban area. Eventually, between the years 2000 to 2015, significant growth is witnessed in
cropland and urban area. However, this alteration is not so simple, the industrial development
further enhanced the use of water. So, Mu et al, (2012) noticed a meaningful transformation in the
land cover SRB.
b) Hydrological Modelling
The hydrological model is most commonly used by the researcher, in order to quantify the
influence of climate and human activities upon the streamflow change. The model has its own pros
and cons relying on its physical and conceptual features. To draw a baseline time framework, the
models are generally first calibrated and validated and then it furthers triggered for other periods
which considered the anthropogenic influences. At the final step, the before and after records of
simulated streamflow is utilized, in order to analyse the stream flow change which is impacted by
climatic change.