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A high-speed train runs through an arched noise barrier in Jiangmen, China. Bullet trains have been operating in
China for only a decade or so. © Getty Images
COVER STORY
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Thailand has for decades been the centerpiece of Tokyo's strategy for
Southeast Asia, and long-discussed plans to build extensive shinkansen-
style rail lines in the country's east and north were meant to cement the
relationship between the two nations.
Located at the tip of the Malay Peninsula, Singapore is the most developed
member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It also has one of
the strongest relationships with Washington in the region -- giving the
project added significance for China.
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Bang Sue Central Station under construction in Bangkok is slated to begin operation in January 2021. (Photo by
Akira Kodaka)
"If Beijing can court Singapore successfully and brings it into its orbit, that
likely means that Singapore may decrease its security relationship with the
U.S." and would give Beijing more space to operate in Southeast Asia, says
Stephen Nagy, senior associate professor at International Christian
University in Tokyo. It could mean that ASEAN would become more
amenable to Chinese demands, such as its push for control over the South
China Sea, he added.
Singapore is also the gateway to the Strait of Malacca, the chokepoint for
maritime traffic connecting the oil-rich Middle East to energy-hungry East
Asia. The U.S. parks vessels in Singapore's ports and conducts training
exercises with its navy.
A dramatic recent shift in Malaysian politics has put China's plans for
Singapore on hold, however. After his election in May, Malaysian Prime
Minister Mahathir Mohamad decided to hold up "for now" the $20 billion
688-km east coast rail line connecting southern Thailand to Kuala Lumpur,
and postpone for two years a 350-km high-speed rail link between the
Malaysian capital and Singapore.
Importantly, the project -- estimated to cost between $18 billion and $27
billion -- is frozen, not abandoned altogether. Mahathir is 93 and has
pledged to clear the way for a successor in a year or two, and the question is
whether the next leader will stand as firm on China as he has. Malaysia is
already negotiating with China for new terms for the east coast rail link.
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Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has put a Chinese rail project in his country on hold "for now." ©
Reuters
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China has been keen to develop its inland and has invested heavily for its
westward push toward Central and Southeast Asia. The country's $1 trillion
Belt and Road Initiative is designed to create transport infrastructure for
China to import energy and other vital resources from, and export goods to,
other parts of the Eurasian continent without relying on its coastal area
that is vulnerable to potential Western sanctions or naval blockades, ICU's
Nagy said.
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Since the 1990s, Japan, in partnership with the Asian Development Bank,
helped ASEAN build transportation corridors across the region. Under the
Japanese model, Thailand was positioned as a platform for building
infrastructure links with other parts of inland Southeast Asia. Rail
connections with China were not a priority.
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Calder says China's railway push may not be "terribly efficient" in many
cases.
"It may be politically controversial," he added. "My forecast is, they will
build it. It will happen."
Few have embraced China's assistance more wholeheartedly than Laos, the
tiny landlocked nation nestled between Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand.
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A China-backed high-speed rail project in Laos has been beset by delays. (Photo by Marimi Kishimoto)
The Laotian government has embraced the project in hopes that improving
the country's railway system will cut transportation costs and jump-start
trade.
"We hope that the construction of the railway will encourage and promote
investment and cooperation, and bring benefits to the country," Prime
Minister Thongloun Sisoulith said in June 2018.
Laos' terrain poses its own challenges. The railway line will need 167
bridges and 75 tunnels to cut through the mountainous country.
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A Laotian ferryman was waiting beside the bridge for Chinese managers,
flying the flag of China Railway Group. Taking passengers across the
river usually earns him just 5,000 kip ($0.59), per ride, but Chinese
managers are willing to charter a boat for $1,500 a month, he said with a
smile.
China Railway hired the ferryboats, office space and the services of a local
clinic for its construction workers. The company's orange flags were seen all
over the city.
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Sri Lanka has taken on a significant amount of debt to fund China-related infrastructure projects. © Getty
Images
In March, the U.S.-based Center for Global Development warned about the
country's dependence on China. It cited Laos as among the eight countries
with the highest debt ratio to China among the 68 countries funded under
its Belt and Road Initiative. The think tank noted that the China-Laos
railway represents almost half the country's GDP, with the International
Monetary Fund warning that the project "might threaten the country's
ability to service its debts."
Just across Laos' eastern border in Vietnam, the attitude toward the China-
funded rail project is different.
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"Vietnam did not protest the Laos-China high-speed railway system," said a
former senior Vietnamese government official. "However, besides economic
development, it is necessary to think about national sovereignty of ASEAN
members, particularly neighboring nations."
China and Vietnam have a long-standing rivalry. The two countries fought a
brief war in 1979, and tensions continue to simmer over sovereignty of the
Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. When China erected an oil rig in
waters claimed by Vietnam in 2014, anti-China riots erupted across the
country, sparking attacks on Chinese industrial parks and factories.
"China wanted to have economic influence over every area globally," the
former official said. "The concern is that China promised a 'win-win'
solution, but the facts did not prove this policy, including with Vietnam."
With the largest ethnic Chinese population in Southeast Asia, totaling some
9 million, Thailand historically has close ties with China. Bangkok is home
to one of the world's largest Chinatowns.
Japan initially sought the project, but Bangkok leaned toward Beijing,
which was more sympathetic to Thailand's military-led regime that took
over in a coup in 2014.
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But some in Thailand have voiced unease about the country's growing
dependence on China.
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Workers inspect a new Fuxing bullet train on Jan. 4 before it goes into service the following day. The train has a
maximum speed of 350 kph. (Xinhua)
After nearly five years of military rule, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha's
junta is preparing for a return to democracy by holding general elections in
February, though they could be postponed, ostensibly to avoid disrupting
the coronation of the new king.
"The question is whether the Thai government after the post-coup period
will open to other countries to compete with China in terms of investment
for the rail system in the country," Surachart said.
China is also vying for a 220-km high-speed rail link connecting the two
international airports serving Bangkok -- Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang
-- and a third alternate gateway in U-Tapao.
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The Japanese companies were wary of a lack of support from the Thai
government, which has asked the bidders to find ways to make ends meet
through the railway itself and related real estate development.
"I don't think the deepening ties created by the railway would create a
fundamental transformation," Johns Hopkins' Calder said. "What they will
do is strengthen what already has been a strong tie for at least 200 years
between Thailand and China," he said. "It might be to the disadvantage of
Japan."
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15 of 16 04/06/2019, 2:37 pm
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