Climate Changes in The Nile Delta

THE NILE DELTA
REPORT
10/21/2011 Climate change in the Nile Delta
The report contains various information about the Nile Delta area, from
begin till end there will be fascination and information about the risks
that are occurring. But also what we can do to prevent or to adapt to
the changes.
The Nile Delta report

C L I M AT E C H A N G E I N T H E N I L E D E L TA
Title
Release date
10/21/2011
Author(s)
Stephan van der Linde
Thijs van den Buijs
Sam Douw
Õnne Kask
Wesley Coppens
Members of project group no. 1
Client
Mr. D. Schuwer, Hogeschool Zeeland
Page1
SUMMARY
This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the current and future aspects of climate change in relation
with the delta area The Nile. Methods of analyses include desk research and findings made out climate
change skills. All used resources can be found in the appendice(s). In general we can conclude that the climate
change in relation with the delta is very serious problem and many of the problems which will occur are not
yet solved by any of the current adaption strategies.
The report also investigates the fact that the analysis conducted has limitations. These limitations include that
all predictions made in the report are based numbers of the IPCC(Intergovernmental panel on climate change)
which can result in faulty predictions. Beside that it is possible that some of the conclusions are not fully right
due the student skill level in climate change.
Page 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Inhoud
SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................... 3
1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................ 4
2 GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NILE ...................................................................... 5
2.1 Delta area...................................................................................................................................... 5
2.2 History............................................................................................................................................. 6
2.3 Aswan dam .................................................................................................................................... 6
2.4 Population ...................................................................................................................................... 6
2.5 Climate............................................................................................................................................ 7
2.5.1 Climate change ....................................................................................................................... 7
3 THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NILE ............................................ 8
2.1 The rise of the sea level ............................................................................................................... 8
2.2 Intensive rainfall and drought ..................................................................................................... 8
2.3 Temperature rise ........................................................................................................................... 8
4 REGIONAL IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES.................................................... 9
4.1 „National Strategy Study‟ on adaptation .................................................................................. 9
4.2 Research Institutes ...................................................................................................................... 10
4.3 Water resources management plan ........................................................................................ 11
4.4 Natural sand dune systems ....................................................................................................... 11
4.5 Protection constructions against the floodings ........................................................................ 12
4.5.1 Coastal protection constructions ......................................................................................... 12
4.5.2 Construction of flood protection wall ................................................................................ 12
5 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................. 13
APPENDIX 1 – DESK RESEARCH ..................................................................................... 14
Page3
1 INTRODUCTION
The Nile delta is a delta area in Egypt at the coast of the Mediterranean Sea. Due to climate change The Nile
and its surroundings are in great danger of floodings and salinization, which leads to a catastrophic result for
the people living and working in the spot. It is believed that after 500 years the Nile delta will be completely
flushed away.
In the course of Challenging Climate Change in Hogeschool Zeeland (HZ) we were asked to find out the
consequences of climate change to the Nile Delta. In our report the following questions will be answered:
What is happening to the Nile Delta? How is the area adapting? How are the results of climate change on
Nile Delta affecting the whole world around us?
The report is build up with a research approach. In the first chapters the general aspects of the Nile Delta and
the effects of climate change are pointed out. Later on it will be dug deeper to the subject for finding out the
regional impacts and the strategies for adaptation for dealing with the inescapable influence of climate
change. At the end a conclusion is made to point out the results and to give further advice for the delta are in
Egypt constantly under the pressure of climate change.
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2 GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NILE

2.1 Delta area
The Nile delta is a delta area in danger of floodings and ground salinization. When climate change keeps on
growing there is a possibility several areas will get flooded due sea-level rise.
The delta area has a size of +/- 25.000km² and is very popular because of its fertile grounds. With its 240
km of coastline and many parts of the ground below sea-level it is in a big danger due to climate change.
Also there are several brackish lagoons or lakes, of which Manzala and Burullus are the largest; Idku is the
third largest lying between Alexandria and Rosetta.
NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY

(HTTP:// EARTHOBSERVATORY .NASA.GOV/IOTD/ VIEW.PHP ?ID=46820& SRC=IOTDRSS )
Page5
2.2 History
The Nile has a rich history and it is one the most well-known rivers trough centuries. Out of drawings in
archaeological buildings we can say that the Nile was the most important river in Egypt. The old Egyptians
were the first ones who discovered that because of floodings grounds became more fertile.
2.3 Aswan dam

At the beginning of the 20th century the British people created a big dam in the center of the Nile River. The
reason why this dam has been created was because the Nile River and the delta got flooded for several
times. This was very good for the grounds in the area. But because the floods caused too much damage and
were unpredictable they had to find a solution. This solution has been the Aswan dam which controls the
water-level in the Nile.
BENJAMIN FRANCK, WIKIPEDIA

(HTTP:// EN. WIKIPEDIA.ORG /WIKI/FILE:ASWAN_ DAM. JPG#FILEHISTORY )
2.4 Population
Currently there live about 34 million people in the Nile delta region which is about the half of the Egyptian
population. Almost 29 million people live only in small towns and not in one of the six biggest cities. These
cities are: Alexandria, Port said, Mahalla al-kubra, Tanta, Mansura and Zagazig.
With the numbers given above it is among the most densely populated agricultural areas in the world, with
1,360 inhabitants per km².
A large part of the population is defined as fellahin, which is both indicating peasants, but also a culture
group of little education and with very traditional world views, distinctly different from the urban Egyptian.
Page 6
2.5 Climate
The Nile delta area has a Mediterranean climate; this means most of the time it has hot periods with a little
rainfall. Temperatures vary from 10-19 °C in the winter to an average of 30°C in the summer. Some people
do say the Nile delta is eroding and will be completely vanished by the year of 2550.
2.5.1 Climate change

Climate change has a big role in the Delta area. Because of sea-level rise grounds in the northern part of the
Delta area are getting more salinized, which results in bad crops.
Also several parts of the area are below sea-level which can cause major problems when dike breaks may
occur.
W IKIPEDIA, S CIENCEM AG. ORG (T HE N ILE DELTA’S S INKING FUTURE)
Page7
3 THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NILE

There are a few primary effects on the Nile caused by climate change, which influence the living habits in the
area.
2.1 The rise of the sea level

When the level of the Mediterranean Sea rises with one meter, the Nile will be hardly affected. The sea
destroys parts of the protective offshore sand belt, which are already weakened because of the reduced
sediment supply. Without these belts the water quality will be altered, the groundwater will become saltier
and tourism will be badly influenced. Also over 6 million people have to move somewhere else.
2.2 Intensive rainfall and drought

Most of the time the area is dry, but with the effects of climate change there will be more heavy rainfall,
causing floods and mudslides.
Drought will also show itself al lot more intensively than in the past years. This will lead to more serious
famines and people‟s death, because in all the countries around the Nile there is not enough water or food
already today.
2.3 Temperature rise

As in everywhere else, the temperature will also rise in Egypt and in the Nile. Storms and hurricanes around
the Nile delta will become more frequent. With the rise of the air temperature the water temperature will
also be affected and it will mostly be higher than 26 degrees.
Thus there will be major floodings which destroy parts of the coastal area including the important agricultural
areas. Besides controlling the water amount, the lock in the Nile also stops the supply of sediment in the Nile,
so the river becomes deeper. In consequences the river will never flood again and harvesting becomes
impossible. So in both ways, there would always be problems with agriculture.
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4 REGIONAL IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

4.1 ‘National Strategy Study’ on adaptation
The national strategy study is an institutional type of measure. The study is thought by the Egyptian ministry of
Environmental Affairs. The aim of the study is trying to adapt the most water-dangerous regions, meaning the
areas endanger of floodings, salty soil and drought, which hardly affects the agriculture in the Nile delta.
Graph 1. The actual situation in 2011

Graph 2. The sea level rise of 50 cm.
Graph 3. The sea level rise of 1,5 meters.
In the graphs (1-3) we can clearly see the effects of sea-level rise and floodings.
SOURCE: HTTP://MAPS.GRIDA. NO/ GO/ GRAPHIC/ IMPACT-OF-SEA -LEVEL-RISE -ON-THE -NILE -DELTA
The „National Strategy Study‟ is an adaption project, meaning that the measures already exist but are not
good anymore with the danger of the sea level rise.
SOURCE: HTTP://EARTHTRENDS . WRI. ORG/ UPDATES/ NODE/235
Page9
4.2 Research Institutes

Resources and capacities of Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) built since 1971 and other related research
institutions in Egypt.
Egypt faces a combination of challenges in the water resources sector. In order to properly tackle such
problems, the National Water Research Centre (NWRC) was established for various water research activities
in Egypt. It was established in 1975. Under the NWRC twelve research institutes work. Each of them is
concerned with one research discipline in the field of water engineering and related water issues. With these
twelve institutes and in the light of future plans for water resources development and management, the main
object is to optimize water use, minimize different water losses and maximize water availability.
Costal Research Institution was established in 1972 because of the urgent need for monitoring and protecting
the Egyptian coasts. It is part of the National Water Research Center together with 11 other institutes. The
institute has six stations at Abu Quir, Rosetta, Ras El Bar, Burg El-Burullus, El-Arish, and Hurgadda.
The CoRI emphasizes on Integrated Management Plans for sustainable protection and development of the
costal zones.
Their mission is to research and investigate for activities to protect and to develop the costal zones of Egypt.
The Institute has carried out many joint projects with international bodies, the following for the Nile delta:
1. Searching and evaluating borrow coarse sand to nourish Baltim sea resort beach, Nile Delta coast
with Delft Hydsaulics Holland.
2. Study vulnerability assessment to accelerated sea level rise on the development of the lower Nile
Delta, with Delft Hydsaulics Holland.
3. Study of Master plan of the Nile Delta coast with Tetra-Tech (USA) and shore Protection Authority
“SPA”
4. Costal Vulnerability to Climate Changes and Adaptation Assessment for Coastal Zones of Egypt (with
UNDP 2008)
SOURCES:
HTTP ://WWW. NWRC -EGYPT .ORG/NWRC/ INSTCORIEN 2. HTML
HTTP ://WWW. NWRC -EGYPT .ORG/NWRC/ INSTCORIEN .HTML
Page 10
4.3 Water resources management plan

It is necessary to resource a management plan for the Nile delta, because the Nile is hardly polluted. By
decentralization of planning they mean that all the necessary work on the Nile, like cleaning and defending
against floods, does not have to be controlled out of one central point, because this way only the most
important parts in the bigger cities of Nile will get the attention. By building up several resource centers, also
the less important parts of the Nile will be cleaned and protected and the protection systems reach all the
farmers.
4.4 Natural sand dune systems

In Egypt there are not a lot of natural sand dunes, but on the places they are, they are very important. The
land behind the dunes will be destroyed by the water when the dunes will be damaged because they are not
strong enough anymore to keep the water outside.
For keeping the dunes safe enough, it is important to plant marram grass on them. The marram grass makes
the dunes stronger and thus they will not break when the water clashes against the dunes.
It is necessary to keep the dunes as protective as possible, because with collapsing the low land will be
flooded.
The dunes have also an important role in natural life as a lot of birds and other small animals live on them.
Page11
4.5 Protection constructions a gainst the floodings

4.5.1 Coastal protection constructions
Coastal protection construction is a technical type of measure, a technical plan. With the construction they
ensure and adapt the safety of the land, because of the threat of the sea. With no protection 6 per cent of
the Egyptian economy will be lost and more than six million people have to find a safer place for living. That
can be realized by building dams or by man-made dunes for protection against even for the smallest rise of
the sea level, thus the coast of Egypt will flood.
The project is carried out by The Shore Protection Authority. It consists of four companies named SPA,
Damietta, Rosetta and Alburullus. These companies have been involved with the Nile delta area for years and
know what has to be done.
4.5.2 Construction of flood protection wall

Mohammed Ali Wall, which protects the low lands at Abu-Quir Bay in the western region of the Nile delta.
Ambitions plans of coastal management in Egypt, particularly protection against coastal erosion, have been
proposed in cooperation with a number of international organisations, such as UNESCO and UNDP, since
1972. Originally the rate of erosion was monitored to provide a date base and to provide possible solutions
to observed and predicted erosions. The coastal protection programme was started by providing simple and
direct solutions to remedy eroded areas through the construction of groins, jetties, concrete blocks,
breakwaters, etc.
In 1987, a programme was adopted to artificially nourish eroded beaches in the summer resorts of
Alexandria and Abu Qir. In 1988, engineering counter measures were taken to protect the Rosetta
promontory against accelerated erosion. A gigantic sea wall was constructed along the western side of the
promontory, with a length of 1.5 km, 12 m high of which 6 m were above the water line. A second 3.5 km-
long sea wall was planned to be constructed in the 1990s along the eastern side of the promontory. It is still
too soon to know if these engineering structures will be proved effective in retarding long-term erosion of this
area.
Experimental pilot projects to reinforce and stabilize the northern Nile Delta coast are under study by the
Coastal Research Institutes of Egypt, in which stabilisation of dunes is being considered, as well as the
reinforcement of the low lying stretches of the coast. It is hoped that these activities will ultimately minimize the
hazards caused by decreased sediment flux from the Nile and rising sea level.
SOURCE: SEA -LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL SUBSIDENCE . C AUSES, CONSEQUENCES AND STRATEGIES . EDITED BY JOHN D.
M ILLIMAN AND MILAL U. H AQ. P UBLISHED BY K LUWER A CADEMIC P UBLISHER .
Page 12
5 CONCLUSION
Our research is about the Delta the Nile, we have researched the primary effects, the regional impacts and
the adaptation strategies. If we look to our research we can see that the Nile Delta has a big problem with
the sea level rise at the meditterean sea in the future we can see that when the sea level rises a part of the
coast of Egypt will be destroyed when they have a sea level rise of 0.5 meters about 6 million people will
have to leave that area, also 1800 km2 of cropland will be destroyed. When It even rises by 1 meters the
damage is enormous. Also we can see because of the temperature rise we can see that parts of the delta will
be affected by a lot more heat waves then before. We have to think about some adaptation strategies like
water resources management plan and coastal protection constructions or natural sand dune systems. So we
can maybe prevent the huge impacts of the climate change and if it‟s not possible to prevent it we can also
make the damage a lot lesser than it would be.
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APPENDIX 1 – DESK RESEARCH

Step 1: What do we want to know?
We need to find information for later for the assessment in Climate Change. For that we make a list
of sources so we know the exact places we can find answers for our questions about the climate in
the Nile Delta.
We have to find reliable information for the following subjects.
The subtasks are:

 Climate of the Nile Delta,
 Primary effects of climate change
o Water-level rise
o Intensive rainfall
o Drought
o Storms
o Hurricanes
o Temperature rise
 Secondary effects of climate change on
o (Water) safety
o Biodiversity & the ecosystem
o Human well-being
o Economics
 Adaptation strategies
Page 14
Step 2: What information sources are appropriate?
The information we find has to be first evaluated. We need to know who the authors are. Only when
our source is reliable, we are allowed to use it for the assessment.
We can use different kind of sources:
 Books, scientific literature

 Scientific articles, reports, working papers, technical papers
 Newspaper articles
 Presentations
 Film material
 Audio material
Sources we found:
Climate Change:
 General
Scientific articles, reports, working papers, technical papers:
 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20376035/ns/us_news-environment/t/rising-
seas-washing-away-egypts-nile-delta/
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
 http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/nile-delta.shtml
 http://www.kennislink.nl/publicaties/nijldelta-pompen-of-verzuipen
 http://www.jstor.org/pss/4298835
 http://carbon-based-ghg.blogspot.com/2010/04/climate-change-
effects-on-nile-delta.html
 http://www.ecn.ac.uk/Education/climate_change.htm
Film material
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmjjxxu7tWc
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OGNQQt9bSw
Page15
Primary Effects:
 General
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/aug/21/climate-
change-nile-flooding-farming
 http://www.uea.ac.uk/polopoly_fs/1.147117!Conway-Hulme-Nile-
IJWRD-1996.pdf
 Sea-level Rise
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
 http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/page/3087.aspx
 http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/article151.html
 http://www.carboun.com/environment/the-impact-of-sea-level-rise-
on-the-arab-world-2/
Film material
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJNgYTqCViM
 Intensive Rainfall
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
Film material
 Drought
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
Film material
Page 16
 Storms & Hurricanes

Newspaper articles:
Websites:
 http://geology.com/news/2010/dust-storm-over-the-nile-delta.shtml
Film material
 Temperature Rise
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
Film material
Page17
Secondary Effects:
 (Water)safety
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
Film material
 Biodiversity & Ecosystem
 http://studiacrescent.com/pdf/gt2_2007/Torab_NILE_DELTA_SHORELINE_ASW
AN_DAM.pdf
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
 http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/30/1/71
Film material
 http://www.5min.com/Video/Contamination-of-the-Nile-Delta-
416310202
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jS7b2U3Skk&feature=related
 Human Well-being
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
 http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/235
Film material
 Economics
 http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/content/20/3/367.short
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100524130842.htm
Page 18
Adaptation Strategies:
 General
 http://www.springerlink.com/content/w23l683253j48g06/
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
 http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/MENAEXT/0,
,contentMDK:22172203~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:256299,
00.html
Film material
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DffCPENJxHw
Socio-Economics:
Newspaper articles:
Websites:
Film material
Page19
Step 3: Where can we find the right information?
Sources are available in lots of places like the Internet, different libraries and media sources.
We use mostly the websites in Internet, because we can access the information fast and easily.
Information can be found in/on:

 Library
 Search engines
 Databases
 Web portals
 Social media
 International Organization websites
 Nongovernmental websites
 Governmental websites
 River Commission websites
 Academic/University websites
Step 4: How to use and assess the information?
Thus the fact that we can find a great amount of information, we have to narrow down our list of
sources and only use the ones most useful for our task.
When we have already found the right information, we have to store it for later, so we know where
exactly can we get an answer to our questions. It is always useful to make an exact folder for the
subject and add some more information if necessary.
Step 5: How you process information?
The best way to process the information is to divide the tasks between group members. This way
everyone has an exact topic he or she has to research. Later it is always useful to check the gathered
information together. The others can give some advice or make some necessary adjustments.
Page 20
Step 6: What is the quality of your reporting?
For us it is required to report on a high level, but of course the quality depends on the reliability of
our sources.
Our report will be delivered in correct format and structure. Although we have to report with good
quality we also have to make it readable for all the parties.
Page21

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THE NILE DELTA

10/21/2011 Climate change in the Nile Delta

The Nile Delta report

2 GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NILE

NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY

2.3 Aswan dam

BENJAMIN FRANCK, WIKIPEDIA

2.5.1 Climate change

W IKIPEDIA, S CIENCEM AG. ORG (T HE N ILE DELTA’S S INKING FUTURE)

3 THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NILE

2.1 The rise of the sea level

2.2 Intensive rainfall and drought

2.3 Temperature rise

4 REGIONAL IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Graph 1. The actual situation in 2011

Graph 3. The sea level rise of 1,5 meters.

4.2 Research Institutes

4.3 Water resources management plan

4.4 Natural sand dune systems

4.5 Protection constructions a gainst the floodings

4.5.2 Construction of flood protection wall

APPENDIX 1 – DESK RESEARCH

We have to find reliable information for the following subjects.

The subtasks are:

Step 2: What information sources are appropriate?

 Books, scientific literature

 Storms & Hurricanes

Step 3: Where can we find the right information?

Information can be found in/on:

Step 4: How to use and assess the information?

Step 5: How you process information?

Step 6: What is the quality of your reporting?

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