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ABSTRACT
X-ray polarization should provide new probes of magnetic field geometry and acceleration physics
near the base of blazar jets, but near-future missions will have limited sensitivity. We thus use existing
lower energy data and X-ray variability measurements in the context of a basic synchro-Compton model
to predict the X-ray polarization level and the probability of detection success for individual sources,
listing the most attractive candidates for an IXPE campaign. We find that, as expected, several high-
peak blazars such as Mrk 421 can be easily measured in 100 ks exposures. Most low peak sources
should only be accessible to triggered campaigns during bright flares. Surprisingly, a few intermediate
peak sources can have anomalously high X-ray polarization and thus are attractive targets.
2.0
as a log-normal distribution (e.g., Romoli et al. 2018;
1.5
Shah et al. 2018), which may reflect disk-driven fluctu-
1.0
ations (Lyubarskii 1997) or variations in the jet particle
0.5 acceleration (Sinha et al. 2018). This suffices for some
0.0 of our sources, but others show wider variability. This
−11.2 −11.0 −10.8 −10.6 −10.4 −10.2
may indicate multiple jet states (e.g. quiescent and
2.5
active flaring episodes), which can be represented by a
2.0 double normal (Gaussian mixture) model (in log-space)
Probabilit densit
1.5
(Liodakis et al. 2017). Of course if we have not sam-
pled the full range of a source’s variability the two
1.0
log-normals might be subsets of a broader single log-
0.5 normal. Here, using the historical fluxes, we represent
0.0
our flux distribution functions as either single or double
−11.6 −11.4 −11.2 −11.0 −10.8 −10.6 −10.4 −10.2 −10.0
Flux (log, erg/cm2/s) log-normal models without attaching physical signifi-
cance to the single or double-mode behavior.
The likelihood function for the single Gaussian model
Figure 1. Example of a unimodal (top panel) and a bimodal
is defined as
(bottom panel) flux distribution in the 2-10 keV energy range
(Sq − Sobs )2
in log-space. The black dashed line shows the best-fit model. 1
In the bimodal case, the red lines show the individual com- lobs = q exp − 2 ) , (1)
2 )
2π(σq2 + σobs 2(σq2 + σobs
ponents.
tities are highly variable, we should test if they corre- also means that the νSy for the individual zones vary and
late, as might be expected from e.g. shock-driven flares so the number of zones Neff contributing half of the in-
(e.g., Marscher et al. 2008). Of course we lack ΠX , so we tegrated flux is a function of frequency. A computation
use the optical polarization (ΠO ) from the Robopol and with Neff related to the peak of the integrated spectrum,
Steward observatory monitoring programs which have assuming typical jet beaming parameters, B = 0.1 G
significant temporal overlap with the Swift data for 17 and a uniform squared distribution of γmax randomly
sources. We use optical polarization as a tracer of the en- distributed among the zones is shown in the √ inset of
ergetic electrons at the jet base that may also contribute Figure 2. The consequence is Π ≈ Πmax /2 Neff , with
X-ray synchrotron; radio polarization can be dominated a small increase from the incoherently averaged half of
by downstream emission. While we cannot make mean- the flux from the remaining zones (see PR2019 for de-
ingful statements about individual sources, we can check tails). Thus Neff (ν/νpeak ) lets us relate the polarization
the major source classes by stacking all contempora- at different frequencies across the synchrotron compo-
neous observations from, say, the HSP. We find that nent. Note that the Neff decrease and Π increase can
both the LSP and HSP have a mild positive correlation be dramatic for ν ∼ 103 νpeak ; some ISPs can be in this
(Spearman’s ρ ∼ 0.12, significance p − value < 0.05). regime.
The two ISP showed no correlation. Thus for LSPs and The behavior in Figure 2, where the γmax range is
HSPs we draw a flux at a given level in their cumulative more important than the effective Doppler factor vari-
distribution function (CDF, e.g. a flux in the top X%) ation, is slightly conservative. In some models, such
and then draw from that source’s polarization CDF at as the shock model of Marscher (2014), γmax may de-
the same top X% level. For the ISP we will assume ran- pend on the angle of B to a shock front and hence
dom uncorrelated draws (see §4.1). In practice, we find to the jet axis; this organized variation further de-
that this makes a small < 20% difference to the source creases Neff when one is well above the synchrotron
detectability, so this assumption is not critical. However peak. We find that this effect is only important for
it should be tested with future monitoring campaigns. 3 < log(ν/νpeak ) < 4, but there the polarization in-
crease can be as much as an additional ∼ 2×; a few
3. EXPECTED ΠX ISPs may have synchrotron X-rays from this extreme
regime.
We must use the lower energy (optical) polarization
For HSP we can directly convert the optical band po-
degree ΠO to predict the polarization in the X-ray band.
larization level to the X-ray band using the square root
For the HSP and some ISP, the X-rays come from the
of the ratios of the Neff (ν). We truncate at Neff = 1
same (synchrotron) component, while for the LSP and
since our statistical estimate breaks down anyway. For
many ISP, they come from the low energy end of the
some ISP, the Π increase can be substantial as long
high energy (here assumed to be Compton) peak. Par-
as the Compton component contributes weakly at 1-
ticularly interesting are the ISP for which the synchro-
10 keV. For ISPs, we used the Space Science Data Center
Compton transition occurs within the IXPE band. To
(SSDC) tools4 to construct the SED of each source and
quantify this connection, we adopt a multizone jet
determine whether the X-ray emission is synchrotron
picture (Peirson & Romani 2018), where the observed
dominated. If so, we expect a substantial Π increase
modest ΠO are the result of incoherent averaging of Neff
compared to the optical.
effective emission zones, each of which radiates with the
For LSP (and ISP with hard X-ray spectra) our model
Πmax ≈ 70% expected for a uniform field, for a power-
assumes that we observe Compton X-ray flux. This
law population of electrons with index ≈ 2, producing
will only show polarization if the seed photon popu-
the observed synchrotron spectrum. From observed po-
lation is highly polarized (e.g., synchrotron emission).
larization levels we typically infer Neff ≈ 30−100 for the
PR2019 find that for isotropic, many-zone scatting in
emission cone contributing to the Earth line-of-sight. In
typical jet geometries the resulting Compton polariza-
practice, the zones have different angles to the line-of-
tion is 0.2 − 0.36× that of the seed photons. This does
sight and different characteristic particle energies γmax
depend on the viewing angle, opening angle, and Lorentz
so the number of zones, and thus Π, becomes a function
factor of the jet (see PR2019 for details). However for
of the observation frequency (e.g. Marscher & Jorstad
the typical jet parameters assumed in the present work
2010; Marscher 2014, Peirson & Romani 2019, ApJ in
(Liodakis et al. 2018) the retained polarization is near
prep., hereafter PR2019).
This multizone picture, with distributions in γmax and
B field orientation, generally improves the match to ob- 4 https://tools.ssdc.asi.it/SED/
served blazar SEDs over that of a single-zone model. It
4 Liodakis et al.
log(Neff/N)
1FGL J2001.1+435 −0.4
S5 0716+714 There are 103 sources with known SED class and at
−0.6
least one measurement in optical polarization and X-
−0.8 ray flux.
101 12 0 2 4 Armed with estimates of the X-ray flux and polar-
log(ν//peak)
1
Π (%)
ks
ization ΠX and their variability we can make predic-
e
tions for detectability. We focus on IXPE as the most
M)k 421
OJ287 1ES 1959+650
imminent facility, whose sensitivity is estimated using
the dedicated online tools8 (Soffitta 2017; O’Dell et al.
2018). Typical exposures will be ∼ 100 ksec, although
10
ks
the longest may approach a Msec. Figure 3 shows the
3C 454.3 e X-ray flux and predicted X-ray polarization degree using
10
1
ks
se
maximal, so we will assume ΠComp = 0.36 × Πseed . To 4.1. Detectability Duty Cycle
get the latter, we scale from ΠO using Fig. 2. For X-ray We must consider the substantial flux (§2) and
Compton emission typical seed photons are in the mm- polarization variability (e.g., Angelakis et al. 2016;
band, we will assume here ∼ 100 GHz, but the depen- Kiehlmann et al. 2017) when predicting the success of
dence on the weighted effective seed photon frequency an X-ray polarization search. The uncertainty ranges
is weak. Note that we are assuming that all seed pho- in Figure 3 already give some idea of these effects. But
tons are synchrotron. If external photons contribute to some sources vary well outside these ranges, especially
the seed photon population ΠComp will be lower. This in occasional large SX flares and less often in polar-
means that our estimates of the LSP polarization may ization increases. Thus we use distribution function
be optimistic. This is useful since any observed LSP models to characterize the full variability range. For
polarization higher than our estimate indicates that the the X-ray variability we either use the parameters in
emission should be non-Compton in nature (e.g., proton Table 1 to construct a flux distribution function or use
synchrotron). the mean and standard deviation to define a single log-
With these two effects we predict a ΠX for each source normal model (see §2). For the optical polarization, we
(Table 2). Figure 2 shows the shift from ΠO to ΠX for a use distribution functions from the maximum likelihood
few sources in each class, with an inset showing the Neff modeling results of Angelakis et al. (2016) for RoboPol
dependence on frequency. sources; for Steward Observatory-monitored sources we
use their empirical CDF (Smith et al. 2009). As noted
above for the ISPs we draw randomly for the CDFs,
4. BLAZAR DETECTABILITY
while for LSPs and HSPs we draw an SX and then
Our prime target candidates are the sources mea-
sured with the RoboPol program5 (Pavlidou et al.
6 http://james.as.arizona.edu/∼psmith/Fermi/
7 https://heasarc.gsfc.nasa.gov/
5 http://robopol.org/ 8 https://ixpe.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-aft/w3pimms/w3pimms.pl
X-ray polarization in blazars 5
1H 1720+117
101
1
%)
ec
PKS 2155-304 M(% 421
ΠX (%)
1ES 1959+650
M(% 501
10
%)
ec
3C 454.3
10
100
0
%)
ec
1
M)
e
Figure 3. Predicted X-ray polarization degree versus the X-ray flux: LSP (black), ISP (red) and HSP (green). Lines show the
1σ variability range in each quantity. Sources lacking at least 3 observations each in SX and ΠO are shown by open squares.
Stars have > 3 measurements in one quantity, solid squares have > 3 in both. Red dashed lines show simple estimates for IXPE
sensitivity for a source with photon index ≈ 2 in a given exposure time.
6 Liodakis et al.
nal seed photon flux dominates the up-scatter to the a collaboration involving the University of Crete, the
X-ray band, these LSP predictions should be consid- Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, the
ered optimistic for a Synchro-Compton model. How- California Institute of Technology, the Max-Planck In-
ever, other emission scenarios (e.g. proton synchrotron) stitute for Radioastronomy, the Nicolaus Copernicus
for the high energy component can produce large ΠX , so University, and the Inter-University Centre for Astron-
a few LSP observations, especially when hadronic emis- omy and Astrophysics. Data from the Steward Observa-
sion is indicated, would be desirable. tory spectropolarimetric monitoring project were used.
While our evaluation includes many of the brightest This program is supported by Fermi Guest Investigator
blazars, we have also identified a set which may be in- grants NNX08AW56G, NNX09AU10G, NNX12AO93G,
teresting targets, if the typical polarization level is suf- and NNX15AU81G and NASA grant NNM17AA26C.
ficiently large. Optical reconnaissance to measure these This research has made use of data and/or software pro-
ΠO and evaluate as possible targets for IXPE and/or vided by the High Energy Astrophysics Science Archive
eXTP are strongly encouraged. Research Center (HEASARC), which is a service of the
Astrophysics Science Division at NASA/GSFC and the
This work has made use of lightcurves provided by High Energy Astrophysics Division of the Smithsonian
the University of California, San Diego Center for As- Astrophysical Observatory.
trophysics and Space Sciences, X-ray Group (R.E. Roth- Facilities: Swift, RXTE, RoboPol, Steward Obser-
schild, A.G. Markowitz, E.S. Rivers, and B.A. McKim), vatory
obtained at http://cass.ucsd.edu/rxteagn/. RoboPol is
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8 Liodakis et al.
Note—The X-ray fluxes are all in erg/cm2 /s (log). Polarization degree is in %. The table lists sources
with > 0.5% X-ray polarization and X-ray flux > 5 × 10−13 erg/cm2 /s. The table lists only the first 10
sources. The table is published in its entirety in the machine-readable format. A portion is shown here
for guidance regarding its form and content.
X-ray polarization in blazars 9
Note—The X-ray fluxes are all in erg/cm2 /s (log). Column ΠO,min lists the minimum
optical polarization degree (%) required for an IXPE detection at 100ksec.