College of Maritime Engineering and Sea Sciences

Ship Structures II
Assignment #1.- Chap 1: Introduction probabilistic analysis
Name: Cleiner Michael Marin Barzola worked hours: 12 [h]

i)

𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑛 4𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑛 𝑁
𝜎𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 = = [ ]
𝐴 𝜋𝐷 4 𝑚𝑚2
𝑖𝑓 𝐷~𝑁(6,0.01)[𝑚𝑚], 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 ?
4𝑥678𝑥9.8 𝑁 𝑁
𝜎𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 = 4 [ 2 ] = 235 [ ]
𝜋𝑥6 𝑚𝑚 𝑚𝑚2
𝑁
𝜎𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 235 [𝑚𝑚2 ]
𝐹𝑆 = = = 1.0
𝜎𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑁
235 [ ]
𝑚𝑚2
ii)
𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑛 ∶ 𝐷~𝑁(6,0.01)[𝑚𝑚]
Using the reference of Wackerly statistic method for the ‘ the method of distribution functions’
𝑢
𝑝𝑈(𝑢) = 𝑃(𝑈 ≤ 𝑢) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑦)𝑑𝑦 , 𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑈 = 𝜎𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑀𝑎𝑥,
−∞
 4𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑛 𝜋𝐷 4 1 4𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑛 4𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑛
𝑃( ≤ 𝑢) = 𝑃 ( ≥ ) = 𝑃 (𝐷 ≥ √ ) = 1 − 𝑃 (𝐷 ≤ √ )
𝜋𝐷 4 4𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑛 𝑢 𝜋𝑢 𝜋𝑢

Standardized:

√4𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑛 − 𝑢 4𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑛 √4𝐹𝑡𝑒𝑛 − 𝑢

𝜋𝑢′ 𝜋𝑢
𝑧=𝑑 = , 𝑃 (𝐷 ≥ √ )=1−𝑃 𝑍 ≤
𝜎 𝜋𝑢 𝜎
( )
For the calculus of the mean and variance is used a numerical method (Simpson 1/3) for
integrate the density function PU(u).
𝑥 𝑥
𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛: 𝐸(𝑝𝑈(𝑢)) = ∫ 𝑢 ∗ 𝑝𝑈(𝑢)𝑑𝑢 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒: 𝐸(𝑢2 ) = ∫ 𝑢2 ∗ 𝑝𝑈(𝑢)𝑑𝑢
−∞ −∞

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑒𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑑:
ℎ
[𝑓(𝑥𝑜) + 𝑓(𝑥𝑛) + 4[𝑓(𝑥1) + 𝑓(𝑥3)+. . ] + 2[𝑓(𝑥2) + 𝑓(𝑥4) + ⋯ ]
3
normal diamet estandaritati density simpsom E()=int(σ*f(σ)) E(x2)
probability
stress er on Funtion 1/3 factor (mean) (variance)
σ[N/mm2] d[mm] d'[-] P(Z<d') pU(u) Fs producto
232 6.04 3.86 5.58323E-05 1 0.00 0.00
232.2 6.04 3.60 0.000156907 0.001786531 4 1.66 385.30
232.4 6.03 3.34 0.000413139 0.004314681 2 2.01 466.07
232.6 6.03 3.08 0.001019843 0.009744158 4 9.07 2108.74
232.8 6.03 2.83 0.00236197 0.020583397 2 9.58 2231.07
233 6.03 2.57 0.005136523 0.040680385 4 37.91 8833.99
233.2 6.02 2.31 0.010498047 0.075242832 2 35.09 8183.75
233.4 6.02 2.05 0.020185089 0.130278493 4 121.63 28387.98
233.6 6.02 1.79 0.036553746 0.211213569 2 98.68 23051.41
233.8 6.02 1.53 0.062427803 0.320719178 4 299.94 70125.17
234 6.01 1.28 0.100697581 0.456239742 2 213.52 49963.73
234.2 6.01 1.02 0.153675752 0.608185284 4 569.75 133434.98
234.4 6.01 0.76 0.222334638 0.759908593 2 356.25 83503.86
234.6 6.01 0.51 0.30565747 0.890176245 4 835.34 195971.09
234.8 6.00 0.25 0.400369887 0.977878504 2 459.21 107822.92
235 6.00 0.00 0.501233171 1.007608084 4 947.15 222580.63
235.2 6.00 -0.26 0.601891504 0.974088435 2 458.21 107771.27
235.4 5.99 -0.51 0.696050858 0.883702097 4 832.09 195874.90
235.6 5.99 -0.77 0.778631923 0.752512186 2 354.58 83539.93
235.8 5.99 -1.02 0.846553295 0.601616077 4 567.44 133803.36
236 5.99 -1.28 0.898955139 0.451669138 2 213.19 50312.33
236.2 5.98 -1.53 0.936887123 0.318501983 4 300.92 71077.46
236.4 5.98 -1.78 0.962655535 0.211003243 2 99.76 23583.82
236.6 5.98 -2.04 0.979087771 0.13135447 4 124.31 29412.66
236.8 5.98 -2.29 0.988926429 0.076854942 2 36.40 8619.16
237 5.97 -2.54 0.99445876 0.04227285 4 40.07 9497.69
237.2 5.97 -2.79 0.997380999 0.021862749 2 10.37 2460.16
237.4 5.97 -3.04 0.998831309 0.010633873 4 10.10 2397.25
237.6 5.97 -3.29 0.999507774 0.004865314 2 2.31 549.33
237.8 5.96 -3.55 0.999804372 0.002094361 4 1.99 473.73
238 5.96 -3.80 0.999926646 0.000848402 2 0.40 96.11
238.2 5.96 -4.05 0.999974052 0.000323481 4 0.31 73.42
238.4 5.96 -4.30 0.999991342 0.000116113 1 0.03 6.60
238.6 5.95 -4.55 0.999997275 -4.99995671
sum ∑ 7049.287866 1656599.9
mean E(x) 234.9762622 55219.996
variance V(x) 6.152004843 N/mm2
stand. Desv. σ(x) 2.480323536 N/mm2

𝑃(𝜎 ≥ 𝜎𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑑) = 𝑃(𝜎 ≥ 235) = 1 − 𝑃(𝜎 ≤ 235)

235 − 243.48
= 1 − 𝑃 (𝜎 ≤ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑍 ≤ 0.012) = 1 − 0.05034 = 0.4961
2.4803
When we applied a force that 678kgf , we have a 49% of probability that this section fail!
Continuous is presented the characteristic of the sea of different grade of sea state, in this
problem we use de sea state number 5 that have a significative wave Height (H1/3) equal to
3.25[m] , and modal wave period of 9.7[s], for calculate de modal wave frequency using the
modal wave period in the next equations Tm=2π/wm

Table of sea state, obtained in: ODD M FALTINSEN- Hydrodynamic of High-speed marine vehicles-Chapter 3-fluid
particle motion in regular waves

i) Using the next formula for the spectral density function:

As the maximum energy is for the frequency of 0.65[1/s], the length using the gravitational
2𝜋
wave formula:𝜔 = √𝑘𝑔 = √ 𝜆

𝑚
2𝜋𝑔 2 ∗ 𝜋 ∗ 9.8 𝑠 2
𝜆= 2 = = 145.7 [𝑚]
𝜔 1
0.652 2
𝑠
As the area below the curve is the variance, using numerical method result: 0.62 [m2]
ii) First is necessary plot the graphic as last statement, but with a interval number more
reducing this is: 0.035 spacing for each interval, due to is necessary integrate for a
numerical method for find the interval area, this is using 20 intervals.
0.035
 For calculate the interval area: 𝐴𝑖 = 3
[𝑓(𝑥𝑖−1 ) + 𝑓(𝑥𝑖+1 ) + 4𝑓(𝑥𝑖 )], being ‘i’ the
number of interval and spacing of intervals of 0.035 which was calculated before .
 For harmonic amplitude was necessary use:
1 2
2
𝜚 = 𝑆(𝜔𝑖)𝑑𝑤
where dw is the central frequency and S is the spectral density function
 For the variation of the elevation in the time in the relations of 20 components is :
20

𝑤(𝑡) = ∑ 𝐴𝑖 sin(𝜔𝑖 ∗ 𝑡)
1=𝑖
 in the next table is presented the interval that was used for calculating the elevations
join the plot that this in function time.
 Seeing the rule classification DNV we have:
This information is presented by:
DNV-rule-classification-in chapter 3 section 4-wave load conditions

i) Using the characteristic in the reference of appendix A of book -ship

structure Jose R. Marín L.
 Length between perpendicular: 89,60 [m]
 CB (block coefficient) =0.8027
 Beam: 13.40[m]
 DWT [ton]: 3800
 Dept: 6.9[m]
 Draft: 5.6[m]

𝑀𝑤𝑜−𝑠 = −0.11 ∗ 1 ∗ 0.0792 ∗ 89.6 ∗ 89.62 ∗ 13.40 ∗ (0.8027 + 0.7)[𝐾𝑁𝑚]

𝑀𝑤𝑜−𝑠 = −126188.26[𝐾𝑁𝑚] in sagging

𝑀𝑤𝑜−ℎ = 0.19 ∗ 1 ∗ 0.0792 ∗ 89.6 ∗ 89.62 ∗ 13.40 ∗ (0.8027)[𝐾𝑁𝑚]

𝑀𝑤𝑜−ℎ = 116428.92[𝐾𝑁𝑚] in hogging

ii) For sea state 7 are obtained the significative wave height, modal period and
modal frequency:
𝐻1/3 = 7.5 𝑇𝑚 = 15.0 𝜔𝑚 = 0.41
}For calculate the probability is necessary use the next expression, using an expression of
distribution of probability of Rayleigh for estimate the maximum:

𝑚𝑓 𝑚𝑓 2
𝑝 = −
𝑚𝑜 2𝑚𝑜
Mwo diseño DNV,
11872.44 Probabilidad DNV
Hogging.[ton.m]
∞
Mo LASTRE1, [ton.m]^2 2862077.00 2.0E-11 1.0E-08
𝑃 𝑚𝑓 𝑚𝑓 = ∫ 𝑝 𝑚𝑓 𝑑𝑚𝑓
𝑚 Mo CARGADA 4,
2945698.00 4.1E-11 1.0E-08
[ton.m]^2
𝑚𝑓 2 Mo CARGADA 11,
𝑃 𝑚𝑓 𝑚𝑓 = [− ] 2960485.00 4.6E-11 1.0E-08
2 [ton.m]^3

Is can see that the probability presented for DNV rule is other of E-11 for the maximum
bending moment, while the theoretical method is based no more than E-08 of probability.