Table of Contents

Contents Page
Table of Contents .................................................................................................................... i
List of Tables ......................................................................................................................... iii
List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... iv
Abbreviations and Acronyms ..................................................................................................... v
Chapter 1 .................................................................................................................................... 1
INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Statement of problem .................................................................................................. 2
1.3 Research Questions ..................................................................................................... 3
1.4 Research Objective ...................................................................................................... 3
1.5 Significance of the study ............................................................................................. 3
1.6 Scope and limitation of the study ................................................................................ 3
Chapter 2 .................................................................................................................................... 5
LITERATURE REVIEW........................................................................................................... 5
2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 5
2.2 Identification principle of Black spot .......................................................................... 7
2.3 Challenges of Black spot in Developing Countries ..................................................... 7
2.4 Methodology of Black Spot Analysis ......................................................................... 8
2.4.1 Fuzzy Clustering Approach: ................................................................................ 8
2.4.2 Entropy method .................................................................................................... 9
2.4.3 Dominance Rough Set Theory Method ............................................................. 11
2.4.1 Rand and Severity Index Method ....................................................................... 11
2.4.2 GIS in Black spot Analysis ................................................................................ 12
Chapter 3 .................................................................................................................................. 13
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 13
3.1 Research Design ........................................................................................................ 13

i
 3.2 Research Approach .................................................................................................... 13
3.3 Study Area ................................................................................................................. 15
3.4 Sample Size ............................................................................................................... 15
3.5 Data Collection .......................................................................................................... 16
3.6 Data analysis .............................................................................................................. 16
Chapter 4 .................................................................................................................................. 18
RESEARCH P LAN ...................................................................................................................... 18
CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................................................... 19
BUDGET .................................................................................................................................... 19
REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 20

ii
 List of Tables

Title Page

Table 2.1 Comparison of Black spots Criteria .......................................................................... 5

Table 2.2 Traffic safety level of Black spot ............................................................................. 10
Table 3.1 Detail of study Area ................................................................................................. 15

iii
 List of Figures

Title Page

Figure 2.1 Number of Accident and severity ............................................................................. 6

Figure 2.2 Vehicle type and number of traffic accident............................................................ 6
Figure 2.3 Black Spot Identification Principle .......................................................................... 7
Figure 2.4: General Program flow chart .................................................................................. 12
Figure 3.1Flow Chart of Research Design of Study Area ....................................................... 13
Figure 3.2 Flow Chart of Research Methodology.................................................................... 14
Figure 3.3 Map of study area ................................................................................................... 15

iv
 Abbreviations and Acronyms

ADB Asian Development Bank

BSM Black Spot Management
DoR Department of Road
GIS Geographic Information System
K. m Kilo meter
RTA Road Traffic Accident
WHO World Health Organization
WSI Weighted Severity Index

v
 Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Traffic accident is major problem worldwide. Nearly 1.25 million people die in road
crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. Road traffic injuries are currently
estimated to be ninth leading cause of death across all age group globally, and are
predicted to become the seventh leading cause by 2030. Over 90% of all road fatalities
occur in low and middle-income countries, which have less than half of the world's
vehicles. Road traffic injuries are the number one cause of death among those aged 15-29.
Road accidents cause huge losses to the economy in terms of cast incurred due to damage
to vehicle, property and humans and cost for treatment. Data Suggest that road traffic
death and injuries in low and middle income countries are estimated to cause an economic
loss of up 5% of GDP. (World Health Organization, 2015)

It is now a global challenge to reduce the no of accidents and maintain road safety. There
is need to reduce the accident by finding the accident prone location and treating them.
The major cases of road accident are road user, road condition and road environment
(Mungnimit, et al., 2009).Growth in urbanization and increase in number of vehicle in
many developing countries have leaded to increase in accident on road networks.
Unplanned urban growth has led to incompatible land use with high pedestrian /vehicle
conflicts.

The location in the road where the traffic accident often occur is called black spot
(Liyamol Isen, 2013).There are different synonyms for the hazardous location such a shot
spot, Black spot & Crash spot (Ghaffari, et al., 2013).There is no universal definition of
such spots. Portugal determines the black spot as a road section with maximum length of
200 m with five or more traffic accident and indicators with severity up to 20 in one years
of analysis. Norway as hotspot considered any road section which length is not greater
than 100 m with least four traffic accident with injuries registered in previous five years
.The identification analysis and treatment to black spots are widely regarded as an
effective approach to road crash prevention. (Meuleners, et al., 2008). Factors affecting
the formation of traffic accident black spots which can be divided into two types ,
subjective and objective factor. Subjective mainly refers to the influence of drivers and
pedestrian whereas objectives factors mainly include the road conditions, traffic safety
facilities along the route environment (LIU, 2013).

The developing countries like Nepal have very few accident records .Those which are
severe are mostly recorded .Often comprehensive record of accident data are not available
and such data are of poor quality .So to analyze the accident black spot only accident data
are not enough so other criteria such as geometric factors, traffic and environmental
factors are to be considered. Due to probabilistic nature of crash occurrence identifying

1
accident sites is a probabilistic problem, thus probabilistic method should be used to compare the
crash count occurring on site with those reference site (Ghaffari, et al., 2013). There are different
methods of identification of black spot and most of the research intended to contribute to reduce
such locations. Several software and model has been developed among them GIS (Geographic
Information System) is one of them.

GIS integrates hardware software and data for capturing managing analyzing and
displaying all form of geographically referenced information .GIS allows us to view
understand ,question interpret and visualized data in many ways that reveal relationships
,pattern and trends in the form of maps ,globes report and charts, A GIS help to answer the
question and solve problem by looking data in a way that is quickly understood and easily
shared.(ESRI 2014)Accident prone location can be identified using GIS .GIS has function
to present spatial realities in form of maps and analytical abilities to track changes in real
World system (Lai & Chan, 2004). GIS has function to link attributes with spatial data
facilities prioritization of accident of accident occurrence on road and result can be
displayed graphically which can be used for planning and decision making (Liyamol Isen,
2013).GIS will offer a platform to maintain and update accident record and use it for
further analysis (Apparao G, 2013).

1.2 Statement of problem

The accident rate has increased in 2014/2015 in Kathmandu valley. According to valley
traffic police total accident in 2014/2015 has been recorded 4999 and it was 4672 in
013/2014. The accident prone area are changing day by day in urban areas in Kathmandu
.Traffic police has stated 17 locations as a black spot in Kathmandu valley. (Traffic Police
Nepal, 2015).Out of 17 locations 12 locations are found in Kathmandu district only.
According to DSP of Valley traffic police Gynendra Pakhrin the location with repeated
number of accident is called black spot. Through the traffic police have identified black
spot there is lagging of rational methods of identifying such location. There is no proper
recording system of accident, minor accident are not being recorded and those which are
recorded also lack enough details .As Bagmati zone being highest number of registered
vehicle there are more traffic problem in Kathmandu than other cities in Nepal .About half
of the all road traffic accident (RTA) nationwide occur in Kathmandu valley only (Thapa,
2013).

Due to poor management and planning of regulatory agencies there is very few
investigation of accident. Among them rare accident get full investigation, there no any
authorized fact yearly how much value country is losing from the accident and what is the
exact cause of accident in Nepal .With increase in number of vehicle, there is extension of
road .In many places of study area the pedestrian consideration has been neglected . The
road infrastructure like foot path, median, shoulder, edge has not been maintained properly
which has increased the risk. The Gokarna –Chabahil- Balaju-Kalanki is a pubic route. It
is one of the critical routes with 7 numbers of blackspots out of 12 black spots location in
Kathmandu district. (Traffic Police Nepal, 2015)

2
Some of the key problems are summarized below;

 Lack of proper method of analyzing accident and accident prone location

 Lack of proper recording of data
 Lack of detail engineering analysis on accident Prone location
 Lack of proper ranking of sites for taking remedial measure

1.3 Research Questions

Based on statement of the problem stated, this study will attempt to analyze the road
traffic accident .The study will attempt to find the answer of following research question:

 What are the potential accident black spot sites and their nature, causes and
pattern?
 What is the level of safety on accident black spot?

1.4 Research Objective

The main objective of this research is identification of accident black spot and
determination of traffic safety level for the assigned route. The specific objectives of the
study are:

 To identify the various accident prone site and ranking of accident prone sites
relative to level of safety.
 To quantify factors responsible for accident.
 To understand the proper correction procedure.

1.5 Significance of the study

The main importance of this study is to take right decision in the accident management
and help to decide and implement redial measure in field of traffic safety. Furthermore
the study outcome will ease.
 Allow an agency to answer what if type question regarding safety measures.
 Providing the information for decision makers to find the optimum investment
assignment
 Provide information for planning long term transport master plan and safety
planning

1.6 Scope and limitation of the study

Scope

The scope of this research is to develop the fuzzy clustering approach for accident black spot and
develop an entropy method for traffic safety level in Gokarna -Chabahil- Balaju_ Kalanki route.

3
The following constitutes scope of work:

 Use the GIS for Identification of black spot

 Calculate analysis the various design factors contributing accident black spot.

Limitation

As traffic accident data are taken from secondary sources and the unreported accident are
not considered in the study.

4
 Chapter 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction
The area with high no of accident severity are termed as black spot .Though there is no
universal definition of black spot but it has been defined as “the location where the traffic
accident often occur “ (Liyamol Isen, 2013).Black Spots are one of the crucial subjects in
traffic safety. Determination of black spots safety level has an importance on developing
counter-measures for these locations Most of researches about traffic safety in the
literature are focused on black spots. The locations and the reasons of black spots have
been investigated in many studies. The Criteria for identifying the black spot vary from
country to country the comparison table is shown below

Country Section Length Frequency

Australia Fairly Short At least 3 casualty crashes in 5

years

England 300 meters 12 crashes in 3 years

Germany 300 meters 8 crashes in 3 years

Norway 100 meters 4 crashes in 3 years

Portugal 200 meters 5 crashes in 3 years

Thailand Vary At least 3 crashes in 1 years

Table 2.1 Comparison of Black spots Criteria

( Source: 4th IRTAD Conference Seoul , Korea 2013 )

The most of the European countries has defined the road section where as the other
nations has just cited the road accident with no of repeated accidents. Several Literatures
has defined the several methods for the determination and analysis of black spots
.Identifying with black spots ranking, finding the cause and recommends for the safety are
main purposes of traffic studies .Several methods can be used for the determination of
black spot analysis.

5
 Traffic Accident year wise
6000
Number of Accident

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
No of Accident 5096 4770 4672 4999
Fatalities 148 148 143 133
Serious Injuries 396 246 229 233
Nomral Injury 3317 3431 3481 3642

Figure 2.1 Number of Accident and severity

(Source : Nepal Police Traffic Directorate)

4000

3500

3000
Number of Accident

2500 Physical power drawn vehicle

Tepmo /Tractor
2000
Micro Bus
1500 Truck
Bus
1000
Car , Van Jeep
500 Motorcycle

0
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Fiscal Year
Accident According to vehicle type

Figure 2.2 Vehicle type and number of traffic accident

(Source : Nepal Police Traffic Directorate)

6
2.2 Identification principle of Black spot
Michel Sorenson ( Best Practice guideline for black spot management) have classified the
overall identification principle of black spots which is shown in figure 2.3

Identification
Principle

Not Accident
Accident Based Based

Not model Model Specific Quantitative Qualitative

-Theme
-Catagory Road
-Number -Type Method in
- Traditional Traffic same
-Frequency Rate -Site Specific
-Modern Driver Principle
-Frequency rate Combinatio -Method in
change n different
-Combination Principle

Figure 2.3 Black Spot Identification Principle

Source ( Michael Sorensen ToI report 898/2007)

The accident based method is based on the accident data from authorized statistics .The
literature by Elvik and mysen 1999 has states that there is risk of focusing on some wrong
location and problem and in BSM ( Black Spot Management ) .To avoid this problem may
attempts of not accident based identification have been made in recent times especially in
North Americas (Leur & sayed 2002).Despite several problems with deficient database
(deliver D6) the recommendation is that identification of black spot should be accident
based to some extent .

2.3 Challenges of Black spot in Developing Countries

Developing countries are often still occupied with problems of road construction and
maintenance and increasing the network capacity .Thus all too frequently road and road

7
system are being built or upgraded with little consideration given to road safety. As a
result black spots and black links are created and any road users are being killed and
injured (NGUYEN, et al., 2014) According to NGUYEN et.al the developing countries
have major following types of the challenges in the black spot

 Challenges associated road traffic accident data

 Challenges with road environment
 Challenges associated with safety budget works
 Challenges with knowledge constrains

2.4 Methodology of Black Spot Analysis

2.4.1 Fuzzy Clustering Approach:

The conventional method is used to identify black spot relies on fixed length of road
sections (Mungnimit, et al., 2009).The clustering (to divide a given data into set of classes
or clusters) approach has been done in analysis of black spot in Turkey where a new
approach to convectional k approach has been redefined with Fuzzy C cluster approach
(Murat, 2009).Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm has been widely used and
applied in different areas. Murat 2009 has identified fuzzy approaches for black spot
analysis in place of convectional approach and he has stated that analysis of the fuzzy
clustering approach has more details than the conventional k-means clustering approach.

The fuzzy c –means (FCM) partitions a given data set 𝑝𝑋 = (𝑥1 , … … . 𝑥𝑛 ) ⊂ 𝑅 𝑝 , into c
fuzzy subsets by minimizing the function
𝐽𝑚 (𝑈, 𝑉) = ∑𝑐𝑖=1 ∑𝑛𝑘=1 𝑈𝑖𝑘
m
∥ 𝑥𝑘 − 𝑣𝑖 ∥2 ...................................... ( 1)

Where 𝐽𝑚 (𝑈, 𝑉) is squared error clustering criterion, and solution of minimization

c= number of cluster and selected as specific value r ,
n is the number of data points ,
uik the degree of membership of xk in class i ,
m the controlling clustering fuzziness and
V the set of cluster center (vi ∈ Rp) .

The matrix U with the ikth entry uik is constrained to contain element in the range (0, 1)
such that ∑𝑐𝑖=1 𝑢𝑖𝑘 =1 ,∀ 𝑘 = 1,2 … . . 𝑛.The function 𝐽𝑚 is minimized by alternate iterative
algorithm. (Zhang & Chen, 2003)

The procedure of FCM based on iterative optimization (Bezdek, 1981)has been presented
in a step wise process
𝑢11 𝑢1𝑘 … 𝑢1𝑁
𝑢𝑖1 𝑢𝑖𝑘 … 𝑢𝑖𝑁
1. Initiate fuzzy partition matrix U, U =[ … … … … ] .............................( 2)
𝑢𝑐1 𝑢𝑐𝑘 ⋯ 𝑢𝑐𝑁
Note :The Fuzzy partition matrix which contains the memberships of each feature
vector in fuzzy cluster, the sum of memberships values of vector for cluster must
be equal to 1.
2. If FCM algorithm is initialized with fuzzy partition matrix , initial memberships
belonging to cluster is adjusted using equation

8
 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙
𝑢𝑖𝑘
𝑢𝑖𝑘 = ∑𝑐 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑜𝑟 1 ≤ 𝑖 ≤ 𝑐, 1 ≤ 𝑘 ≤ 𝑁 ......................................( 3)
𝑖=1 𝑢𝑖𝑘
3. If FCM algorithm is initialized with fuzzy centroid matrix containing fuzzy cluster
centroid 𝑣 𝑖 is adjusted using equation
∑𝑁 m
𝑘=1(𝑢𝑖𝑘 ) 𝑥𝑘
𝑣𝑖 = ∑𝑁 m
......................................( 4 )
𝑘=1(𝑢𝑖𝑘 )
4. The Fuzzy membership (𝑢𝑖𝑘 ) is updated by equation
1
1 )
( 2 )(m−1
𝑑 (𝑥𝑘 ,𝑣𝑖 )
𝑢𝑖𝑘 = 1
1 𝑓𝑜𝑟 1 ≤ 𝑖 ≤ 𝑐, 1 ≤ 𝑘 ≤ 𝑁 .............................( 5)
)
∑𝑐𝑖=1( 2 )(m−1
𝑑 (𝑥𝑘 ,𝑣𝑖 )

5. The step number (3) and (4) are repeated until the change in value of memberships
between two iterations is sufficiently small level.

In clustering analysis, the observed scales of the variables must be transformed so that
their ranges are comparable because the clustering methods are sensitive to scale
differences. Therefore, the variables were rescaled between 0 and 1 using equation
Latitude : 𝑌 = (𝑋 − 𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛 )/ (𝑋𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛)......................................( 6)

Longitude : Y = (X − Xmin )/ (Xmax − Xmin................................( 7)

Where Y the feature at site is, Xmin and Xmax are the maximum and minimum of the
feature within the data set.

These rescaled characteristics were employed as the basis for classifying the traffic
accidents. To determine the optimum the cluster number, sensitivity of the results from
FCM algorithm to variation in the value of cluster numbers (c) is varied from 2 to 9 with
increment of 1. The variations of objective function of Fuzzy C-means algorithm for
Economically Damaged (ED) and ED+ injured accidents with change in the number of
cluster ranging from 2 to 11 and for dead and injured accident the variations of objective
function of FCM algorithm with change in number of cluster ranging from 2 to 5.. The
main problem in fuzzy clustering is that the number of clusters (c) must be specified
beforehand. Selections of a different number of initial clusters result in different clustering
partitions. Therefore, it is necessary to validate each of fuzzy partitions after the cluster
analysis (Murat, 2011)

The validation of each fuzzy partitions after cluster analysis are done by various clustering
index .These index are partion coefficient (PC), Classification entropy (CE), Partion
Index (SC) , Sepation index (S) and Xie and Beni’s index (XB) and Dunn’s index (DI).

2.4.2 Entropy method

Yetis Sazi Murat (2011) has analyzed the black spot based on Entropy . Definition of
entropy is based on information theory that measure of uncertainty associated with random
variable . Shannon defined the entropy as expected value of alternative condition for
variable using a mathematical expression. Shannon is the first researcher who defines
marginal entropy H(X), which equation is as follow

H(X) = ∑𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑝(𝑥𝑖 ) log 𝑝(𝑥𝑖 )......................................( 8)

9
Where
X shows discreet Random Variable
K shows a constant based on the unit used in the entropy calculation
N shows number of basic events that has p(xi) Probabilities

The Yetis has dealed the determination of black spots safety level using Shannon entropy
approach considering an average accident type and effective factors on accident
occurrence, Geometrical and Physical Condition , Traffic Volume , Average Speed and
average accident rates are considered in analysis. The entropy calculation as per as per
Yetis Sazi procedure are :

Step : 1 Aggregation of Value parameters :

𝑇 = 𝐺𝑃 + 𝑇𝑉 + 𝐴𝑆 + 𝐴𝑅. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 9)

Where:
GP: Geometrical and Physical Condition value
TV: Traffic Volume value
AS: Average Speed value
AR: Accident Rate value
T: Total value.

Step : 2 Determination of Probability of Parametrs

PGP = GP/T
PTV= TV/T
PAR= AR/T
PAS = AS /T

Step 3: Calculation of information content and entropy

𝐸 = −[ 𝑙𝑜𝑔 (𝑃𝐺𝑃) ∗ 𝑃𝐺𝑃 + 𝑙𝑜𝑔 (𝑃𝑇𝑉) ∗ 𝑃𝑇𝑉 + 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑃𝐴𝑆) ∗ 𝑃𝐴𝑆 + 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑃𝐴𝑅) ∗ 𝑃𝐴𝑅.( 10 )

Entropy Values are calculated using the above parameter , five level of safety are grouped
based on entropy values and validation of approach were done by chi square and truth
value method. (Murat, 2011)

Definition Safety level (class)

Definitely UnSafe 1

Unsafe 2

Approximately safe 3

Safe 4

Definitely Safe 5

Table 2.2 Traffic safety level of Black spot

10
2.4.3 Dominance Rough Set Theory Method
Ziang et al. ( 2011) has analyzed the traffic black spot based on Dominance Rough set
theory .The Theory significally analyze every single cause of accidents, that is sorted
accordingly based on experience and relevant alogorithm are applied to illustrate the
relationship .The Ziang et.al. follow the below steps of specific model of traffic accident
based on dominannnce relation

Step 1: Develoment of Traffic Accident data

𝐷𝑇 = ( 𝑈 , 𝐶 ∪ 𝐷, 𝑣, 𝑓)......................................( 11)

D=Decision attribute

C=Condition attribute

V= Valley of all attribute

f= Function from C∪ D toV

Step 2: Define dominance relation Sq for each

𝑞 ∈ 𝑄 = 𝐶 ∪ 𝐷......................................( 12)

Step 3: Classify the accient U into n equivalent classes

𝑃( 𝐶𝑙𝑙≥ ) upper approximation and lower approximation𝑃 (𝐶𝑙𝑡≥ )

Step 4: Compute upward and down ward of each class of accident

2.4.1 Rand and Severity Index Method

RR Sorate (et.al) 2015 has analysed the accident black spot through the method of rand
and severity index , accident density method and weighted severity index in India .
According to RR sorate severity index indictaes the vulnerability of particular spot to
accident . Severity index (SI)was calculated as

𝑆𝐼 = (𝛽/𝛴𝑊)𝑥 100......................................( 13)

𝛴𝑊 = 𝑤1 + 𝑤2 + 𝑤3 + ⋯ … + 𝑊𝑛......................................( 14)

Accident density is calculated from no of accident per unit length of sectionof highway
.Section with more than predetermined no of accient are classified as high accident
locations.

Weighted Severity Index, (𝑊𝑆𝐼) = (41 𝑥 𝐾) + (4 𝑥 𝐺𝐼) + (1 𝑥 𝑀𝐼) ....................( 15)

11
Where, K is the number of persons killed; GI is the number of grievous injuries; and MI is
the number of minor injuries. Prioritization scheme was used for the GIS analysis and
which involves assigning suitable weights to different factors which tend to influence the
occurrence of accidents on identified study stretches in the district in such a manner that
the factors which tend to increase the probability of the accidents have lower weights

2.4.2 GIS in Black spot Analysis

GIS integrates hardware , software and data capturing ,managing analyzing and displaying
all forms of geographically referenced information .Accident prone locations can be
identified using GIS by analyzing spatial characteristics about identified location and also
able to figure out the underlying factors causing accidents .

With the development of computer hardware and software, spatial information can be
analyzed on digitalized maps. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) offer a substantial
platform for new tools to be developed for accident studies (US Department of
Transportation, 1999). The advantage of using GIS in Black Spot studies is that it can
present both the geographical positions of the accidents and the information about the
accident details. Arc View is also designed to utilize data created by ESRI's other GIS
software, ARC/INFO, as well as spreadsheets and various format images. It is a powerful
and user-friendly program. General GIS analysis process includes a twostep process data
collection and analysis.

In China the black spot has been analyzed through GIS .which basically used 3 steps for
analysis of the black spot with specific task as shown in figure below. The program starts
from making a query about the accident types from an accident database. Once an accident
type is selected, through a number of user-program interactions, the program will conduct
some necessary calculations to form the Black Spot. Then a Black Spot will be presented
including the position of accident and the road network (Yue & Zhang, 2001)

New Forming
Start Output End
Query Blackspot

Making
Another
Query

Figure 2.4: General Program flow chart

12
 Chapter 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This is to carry out the a numerical investigation of black spot on Public route (Gokarna -
Chabahil- Balaju_ Kalanki) in Kathmandu. The analysis utilizes the Fuzzy c ,GIS and
Entropy method to analyze the black spots.

3.1 Research Design

Research design is a conceptual framework of entire process of obtaining data of
information needed to solve research problem within a time & budget. The research is
casual research as it helps to determine the relationship of different road infrastructure
with accident with an application of GIS.

Road Network

Classification of sites

Identification Principle

Identification Criterion

Analysis

Evaluation

Figure 3.1Flow Chart of Research Design of Study Area

3.2 Research Approach

This Research is based on analysis of accident black spot considering geometrical and
physical condition, traffic volume, average speed and average accident rates .This factors
will be calculated with entropy values and based on these values and class number and
safety level will be determined. The truth value and chi square test are used for validating
the studies. Detail flow chart is shown below;

13
 Problem
Identification

Research Objectives

Site selection

S
Data Collection
U
P
L Accident data
E
I
R Data Analysis
T
V (Fuzzy clustering)
E Change
I Variable
R Validation
S
A
I Black spot YES
T Identification
O
U
N Data Collection
R
E NO
C •Accident rate D
O •Traffic Speed
N •Traffic volume
• Geometry and Physical condition
S R
U E Data Analysis Change
(Entropy Method) Variable
L V YES
T I Validation
A E
T W Level of Safety of
Black spot NO
I D
O Data Input in GIS
N
Discussion , Conclusion and
Recommendation

Report
Writing

Figure 3.2 Flow Chart of Research Methodology

14
3.3 Study Area
The study area is Gokarna -Chabahil- Balaju_ Kalanki road section .As the area is highly
populated in recent decades and proposed satellite city lies under the area of study. The
study area includes all possible types of geometric features like 2 leg intersection, 3 leg
and 4 leg intersection with other distinct feature of gradient, curvature. It is one of the
most vulnerable route having 7 black spot sites out of 12 black spot sites in Kathmandu.

3.4 Sample Size

The sample size of study section of road is 16.11 , which consists of national highway
H16, feeder roads F026 and F027.

Figure 3.3 Map of study area

Link Length
S.N Name Of Road Class Ref No Code (km)
Chabahil - Sankhapark (KTM
1 Ringroad) NH H16 H1605 2
Sankhapark - Maharajganj (KTM
2 Ringroad) NH H16 H1606 1
Maharajganj - Balaju Bypass Junction
3 (KTM Ringroad) NH H16 H1607 3.5
Balaju Junction - Banasthali -
4 Swoyambhu (KTM Ringroad) NH H16 H1608 2
Swoyambhu - Kalanki (KTM
5 Ringroad) NH H16 H1609 3
6 Chabahil (Ktm Ring road)-Pipalbot FRN F026 F02601 1.91
7 Jorpati-gokarna FRN F027 F02701 2.7
Total 16.11
Table 3.1 Detail of study Area
Source :DoR , HMIS Unit 2013

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3.5 Data Collection
The data collection has been done in two stage primary and secondary stage .The Traffic
accident data of last three years of the study area is directly collected from traffic police
station .Traffic accident location , type of accident , vehicle involve in accident , driver
condition ,damages and casualties etc. will be collected from secondary source . The
coordinate of the accident site will be taken from the accident record and primary data
analysis will be done with in the periphery of these accident locations. These data will be
used to generate the map in Arc Map 10 of GIS Software .The spatial data will be
collected from authorized Authority and Google earth will be used to take necessary data.

The primary data of that area will be taken from field survey. The primary data that are
taken from field are

a. Geometric & Physical Condition

 Number of lane
 Shoulder width
 Availability of Traffic Sign
 Obstacle on Sight
 Direction of flow
 Road Work
 Vertical Curve length
 Horizontal Curve length/Radius
 Surface Characteristics
 Availability of Foot Path
 Type of Pavement
 Lane Width
 Road Surface Characteristics
 Crossings
 Intersection condition

b. Traffic data
a. Traffic volume
b. Vehicle type
c. Traffic sign /signal

c. Average Speed

Note : Traffic spot speed will be done at the specific locations and respective traffic
volume will be calculated.

3.6 Data analysis

As there will two steps of data analysis, first for identification of black spot and another
for level of safety of black spot. Data analysis will be done by fuzzy clustering approach
for black spot location .In second step entropy calculation will be done. The Certain

16
number of cluster is assumed for the accident analysis. The different approaches
economically loss, disaster area and casualty state will be analyzed to find accident black
spot .

The average speed is calculated in kilometer/hour ( km/hr) ,the traffic volume will be
calculated in vehicle/hour ( veh/hr), certain values will be assigned for each distinct
geometrical and physical condition . The accident rate will be determined using the
address where accident occurs and after getting all these data the entropy is calculated
.After getting entropy value the number of class are adjusted considering total number of
data and statistical approach of formula defined by Bayazit and Ogliz (1985) and the class
interval of are defined. The safety level of each spot are determined regarding entropy
value .The optimal number of clusters in the data set is identified by using objective
function and fuzzy cluster validation indexes. Truth value calculation and chi square test
are used as validation studies for entropy process. After getting final level of safety these
data are entered in GIS in different layers with color coding .GIS software is used to
represent the analysis value with color coding.

17
 Chapter 4

RESEARCH PLAN

S.n Duration
Activity 2015 2016
October November December January February
2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
1 Literature Review
2 Proposal Writing
Data Collection
3 and Processing
4 Data Analysis
Preparation of
5 Draft Report
Final Report &
6 Thesis Defense

Final Thesis report

Defense correction
7 and Submission

18
 Chapter 5

BUDGET

S.N Description Budget (RS)

1. Transportation 7000

2. Data Collection and surveying 250000

3. Lodging and Fooding 20000

4. Stationery 15000

5. Communication (Internet phone etc) 5000

6. Thesis report Printing and Binding 5000

7. Other indirect cost 3000

Total : 80000 ( Rs Eighty

Thousand)

19
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