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Varchasvam
Being Disciplined
(This post is part of a series of post that would appear on the blog and is a part of author’s Lecture made available
verbatim to you all that would conclude at the end of Process 25)
Lot is been said of one needing to be disciplined or stay disciplined. But none ever states what is actually
being disciplined and how does one go about being disciplined.
Can we really change ourselves in the way we have been indiscipline to a future way of being
disciplined?
This intended transformation is eluding many of us and many have given up too.
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Discipline has no universal parameters. The description of discipline is diverse to each of us.
Discipline is about following the rules we decided we would and therefore in many ways it’s something
we said and decided to do and not been able to do.
Discipline starts with what we agreed to do and not been able to do.
Discipline to me, is therefore about one’s integrity with one’s conscious decision to do it.
So at the root of discipline or indiscipline, is our own agreement to do something and therefore has
nothing to do with any universal parameters, generalizations or norms.
Discipline is purely our own agreement with the Self that is unkept creating a Guilt that demeans us that
we are not able to complete the task decided by our own Self.
First easiest way to discipline is to experience ‘restrain’ as a natural behavior or an underlying way of
lifestyle.
Followed by believing in ‘less is less leaky’ when it comes to conserving our energy and even money.
We are caught up in believing that the more we do the more are our chances of ge ing it soon or
winning the game which leads to over trading.
Contrary to that, my day trading statistics spread over eight years point to the days when I have traded
more than two trades per day as the days that were responsible for more than average losses.
I therefore substitute the word discipline with ‘restrain’ that I find more apt.
The First Generalized Process of Restrain that I widely follow and use it regularly is very simple. It’s
simple to follow and the mere saying makes you more agile and aware of your own indiscipline.
It simply says:
Saying, “Let me stop here” is all what it takes to start with being disciplined. This willingness to restrain
is so powerful, it can get you out of most of your wrong habits.
When your first trade goes wrong moving into second trade is explainable and alright. But to not do the
second trade at all, is a great achievement that calls for practicing restrain, when on the one hand is our
commitment is to end the day positively with some gains, doing the second trade is a logical.
But what we must appreciate is, not doing a trade is indeed just the beginning of the process of restrain.
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The moment you decide to stop somewhere, you start the process of re-writing over your old habits with
new pa erns of responding by your new method of restrain.
Here is where some of your old habits die and get rewri en with new ones that are transformational.
You have in a way started to stop acting in your old repetitive manner that at many times been
deplorable.
Process 4: To stop doing a repetitive deplorable action done regularly in the past is discipline.
Doig the same mistake again and again is deplorable and frustrating. To not doing it, is a great
beginning.
The processes 1 to 4 are followed when worked on we get to the next process.
Having spoken about the first five processes let me brief you what I really mean by the word ‘Process’.
Process is about identifying your ways of ‘being’ in life especially to relating or responding to something
in the context of Discipline. The process demands you write your own observations that are more
specific to you and participate with your Self in being aware and agile to your pa erns of restrain even
beyond trading.
(…To be concluded)
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3 COMMENTS LEAVE A COMMENT
Jupiter’s stay in 6th House will also lead to rising NPA status. Courts will do well with its enforcing
measures.
th
During Jupiter’s stay in 6 House it would go retrograde from 5Mar18-11July18 corresponding with the
time Banks report Annual Performance and NPA status.
th th
As Jupiter is also the Lord of 8 and 12 .House, current measures will have to watched closely as very
th
soon Sat enters 8 House (Sagi arius 3 25) on 28Nov17 and stays till 25Dec19.
On the whole Banks would report laudable performances till 5Mar18 i.e. for the remaining FY18.
Bank stocks could remain buoyant till 28Nov17 and in the very short term till 1Nov17.
26Oct17 8:57
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Candles First!
Within the Pa erns are Candles, that lead to formation of Pa erns. And if your knowledge of Candles
has clarity, either Strength or Weak (without ge ing too worried of the names for newcomers to TA) you
will trade the Pa erns correctly.
Following Clarity on Type of Candle either Strength or Weak, the next on the list for subject learning is
Breakouts.
Unfortunately, Breakout Methodolgy as a subject is not so well covered on Google searches on the
Internet.
So in essence on the canvas of subject learning, its Candle Analysis first followed with Breakouts!
Can tweet me your questions if in 140 words. If you have long messages can send me a message here.
15Oct17
13:47
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Here the Condition that CCI 34 must be >+100 on Monthly Chart is not valid or a necessity as Stop Loss
will be normally triggered when Momentum drops, which is what we want.
BH=Body Height i.e. Absolute Difference between Close and Open of the Candle
CH= Candle Height i.e. Absolute Difference between High and Low of the Candle
Such a Candle lacks direction and thereby referred as Indecisive Candles. Hence the Stop Loss is placed
th.
below such Indecision Candles @ 1/9 below the Low of BH<50%CH Candles.
Then SL = 180-180/9=160.
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Non-Breakout Candles
While there are many other ways to arrive at Stop Loss, this is one of them.
9Sept17 20:10
SEPTEMBER 9, 2017
DEISHMAN
INVESTING, UNCATEGORIZED
STOP LOSS STOCK
In Monthly Chart take the Low of the last BH>50%CH Candle and multiply by 1.618 for the next month
Target. Do it as a one-time activity at the close of every Month.
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Condition: CCI 34 in Monthly Chart must be >+100. The stock must be in Momentum and that is gauged
by CCI 34 staying above +100.
If you are not aware how to analyze a BH>50% CH Candle, here is it.
BH is Body Height of the Candle and is the Absolute Difference between Close and Open of the Candle.
CH is Candle Height of the Candle and is the Absolute Difference between High and Low of the Candle.
Such a candle is considered as a Strength Candle, as in such a candle for more than 50% of the time of
the candle’s period, the stock has been in one direction. Due to this it is also referred to as Decisive
Candle and is a ‘must’ on Range Breakout and therefore also called as Breakout Candle.
Non-Breakout Candles
While there are many other ways to arrive at Targets, this is one of them.
9Sept17 20:10
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SEPTEMBER 9, 2017
DEISHMAN
INVESTING
TARGET STOCK INVESTMENT
Nandan Denim Ltd recommended earlier on 5July17 to INVEST @ 142 SL 115 TGT 250 within 7months.
It’s time it shows occurrence of a weekly close above 160 by 4Sept17 and provide the most sought
momentum! Weekly Chart with what’s expected here onwards on Weekly basis is picturized as below:
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3Sep17 00:35
SEPTEMBER 2, 2017
DEISHMAN
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
NANDAN DENIM ARVIND
We normally ask whether one uses a 5min chart or a 30min chart. These 5,15, 30, 60, 4hour, Daily,
Weekly or Monthly are be er known as Time Frames.
When we select an Indicator of our choice, we are next asked to choose Time Frame for the Indicator. In
Multi Time Frame Indicator you are given the facility to plot multiple time frame values of the Indicator
in the same widow and on the same basic time frame chart like showbn below in 5min chart.
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Here the Period 34 is fixed and three Time Frames can be seen in one window.
Multi-Time Frame Application is also available for RSI, ATR, ADX, Stochastics, MACD, Moving
Averages. Refer h ps://www.mql5.com/en/users/work2it/seller
(h ps://www.mql5.com/en/users/work2it/seller). Google Search is worth a foray.
Here is a chart below where two CCI windows are used. The first or above CCI window in the chart is of
5min Time Frame with Period 8. The below CCI window is a Multi Time CCI window with CCI plo ed
of one Period 34 and two Time Frames of 5min and 30min.
The First Window of CCI 8 5min is used for timing Entry and Exits.
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The Second Window with CCI 34 30min (Red) is used to ascertain Direction of Trade.
If CCI 34 30min (Red) is greater than +100, the trade must be a Buy Trade.
If CCI 34 30min (Red) is lesser than -100, the trade must be a Sell Trade.
Buy Entries:
Whenever CCI 8 5min < -135 provided concurrently CCI 34 30min > +100 one can Enter a Buy Trade
with SL 0.381% below the low of 30min candle.
SELL ENTRIES
Whenever CCI 8 5min > 135 provided concurrently CCI 34 30min < -100 one can Enter a Sell Trade with
SL 0.381% above the High of 30min candle.
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This Strategy is for Intraday and commonly referred as Multi Time Frame CCI.
Later, we would continue with Exit Stategies with the use of MTF CCI.
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DEISHMAN
CCI
CCI COMMODITY CHANNEL INDEX
What is CCI + BO ?
In NimblrTA, CCI + BO is a common terminology used in Intra Day Trading whenever CCI enters into
momentum and BO i.e. Breakout is confirmed. Momentum referred here is when decisive trended price
action occurs that could give gains in lesser than normal time in the trade.
Primarily, CCI B means upside Buy Momentum. It signifies that CCI has just been greater than 100 and
the stock is said to have entered a Buy Momentum.
CCI S is down side Sell Momentum. It signifies that CCI has just been lesser than -100 and the stock is
said to have entered a Sell Momentum.
Any time it treads in between 100 to -100 as shown below pic. is termed as a Non-Momentum Zone and
as such any stay in trade must be best avoided and money flow diverted to stocks with momentum.
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CCI crossovers by it self is not sufficient for intraday trades. Breakout (BO) must be accompanied a few
candles earlier or later than the CCI crossing over +100 or below -100.
For intraday trading we use the Open Range of 15mins and its high as Open Range High and its low as
Open Range Low. Breakout (B0) is therefore any price crossing above or below the High and Low.
Here are a few illustrations what a CCI B + BO and CCI S + BO looks like on charts.
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A post on the Blog on Breakouts covers the subject of Breakouts in more details with Chart Illustrations.
BHARTI AIRTEL
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Bharti Airtel CMP 431.80 INVEST INVEST INVEST @ 431 SL 380 TGT 900 12mths. A short run to 455 on
a immediate time scale is possible.
Bharti Airtel has been one stock that has n’t been impacted by Nifty’s fall. Infact, since 18July17 has been
under accumulation for the last 24 trading days with support at 398-400, not far away from current price
of 431.
The reasons for such accumulation must be well known within market’s inner circle. Probably market is
already pricing a be er performance due to GST or good operational measures.
Confirming the accumalation witnessed comes the news of subscriber base reaching 281.25 million with
29.61% market share.
TGC – Triple Golden Cross with EMA5>EMA21>EMA55 too concides with CCI>+100 with a Strength
Candle with Body Height greater than Candle Height by 50% on Breakout! Conclusion: Accumulation is
Over! Momentum Begins!
On Wkly Chart the stock gave BO in the last week of Jun17 coinciding with CCI >+100!
Expect stock to touch 520-540 by end of Q2 at which time Impact of GST and Competiton will be gauged
from the declared Q2 results; which if meets expectations can expect a Monthly BO with a Monthly close
over 510.00 as per below chart.
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With a Mthly high of 592 and low of 215, Target based on Fibonacci Channel Projections works out near
about to 900! If Momentum gathers as envisaged Target would be achieved in 12 months based on CCI
Momentum Indicator!
Markets News:
With over 6 lakh new subscribers, Bharti Airtel ‘s total mobile subscriber base reaches 281.25 million
subscribers with 29.61% market share.
CONCLUSION:
Bharti Airtel CMP 431.80 INVEST INVEST INVEST @ 431 SL 380 TGT 900 12mths
24AUG17 02:05
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Apportioning Funds to Stocks when entering for Investment has some worth parameters in the
background.
The Single Most reason for hefty allocation to the extent of 8-10% is Scalibility in Operations with scope
for self sustaining Growth. This creates MegaBaggers with a long stay in the portfolio like Bajaj Finance,
Finserve, PVR, Fibermweb et all. Recent Aurobindo Pharma and United SpirIts fall in this category.
Improved Quarterly Results due to be er than average Price Realizations mainly in Commodity Stocks
which are cyclical get 5-8% allocation with an average twelve month stay like IMFA,Panama Petro,
Shreyas Shipping et all.
Stocks with Stable Historic Performance Record with prospects for improved valuation gets 4-5%
allocation like Hind Lever, Colgate, Reliance, HDFC Bank of late with 6-8 months stay.
There isn’t any specific number on stocks to be held. Softwares allow to hold more than the previous
norm of 10-15 stocks.
Investment depends more on perception of Gains over time and its stay in portfoliois purely based on
TA Momentum Strategies.
Some of the stocks may fall apart from orginal thinking or even do well than expected after Investing
and depending upon its extended stay and monthly momentum they get re-grouped by TA Methods at
the end of every month.
Constant liquidity is adequate due to well defined Momentum Methods for Fresh Investing
Opportunities.
Portfolios are tagged month-wise initially; with price achievements, a few may remain with Yearly
Momentums and some may even be exited due to higher sideways accummulation period of over 4-5
months.
Depending upon their longer stay in the porftfolio stocks get aged and tagged as per the above three
paramaters of Long Term Scalibility, Price Realization and Stable Growth Compouders.
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Many believe with a Stop Loss in place the risk control job is taken care. But that’s not your only job.
Your job is to minimize loss too and not adopt a costly loss aversion method of Stop Loss. Its Foolish to
Leave it to the Stop Loss for Loss Aversion. And that’s The Folly of Stop Loss.
Of course the trading platform demands and must therefore have a Safe Stop Loss for the Trading
Platform which facilitates be er scope for profit cover and at times even a loss cover order.
Of course Stop Loss is statutory in the event of any flash crash or a calamity of some kind during the
day.
More Sensible and be er would be to have a Exit Startegy in place, to make sensible logical Exits before
the trade is stopped out.
By itself Stop Loss is not an Exit strategy. Your process must have a defined and definite way to Exit.
Later, would suggest how Candlestick Analysis, Indicator, Wave Pa erns can help you device your Exit
Strategy instead of the Stop Loss.
To wish is Speculative.
Some overnight Buy Back news may risk you to make a trade.
Feeling Rich! Spare money or additional income may lure you to bet some money on stocks.
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You pay up for your Losses due to the way you conduct overall in life.
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Breakouts comprise of :
In effect, a Breakout is a Body Breakout of a Candle from the Body of the Channel or the Rectangular Box
encompassing the Range.
Breakout Candles are candles with Body Height > 50% Candle Heights as per the following method:
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The above is an example of a Breakout Candle with Close greater than Open. The same can be used for
Candles wit close lower than Open as below.
In Intraday Trading on lower time frames like 5min to 30 min the requirement is of two consecutive
5min candles to esnure that a min of 10 minutes of one sided price action occurs.
The Breakout Lines in Intra Day Charts is based on Open Range of 15mins. As said, there are two
Breakout Lines; one on High/Low of the Candles and the other based on Body High/Low of the candles
wherein the highest open or close is the upside Higher Breakout Line and the lowest open or close as the
downside Lower Breakout Line as explained in chart below:
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The pink-do ed lines are the BO High and Low Lines that encapsulate the Bodies of the three first 5min
candles of the 15mins Open Range fro 9:15 to 9:30am.
The next noteworthy lines for Breakouts are the Open Range High and Low formed by the first 15mins
of Open Range and shown as below:
The Blue Line is the Open Range OR High Lane due to the High of the Open Range. The Red Line is the
Open Range OR Low Line due to the Low of the Open Range.
As said earlier we need two consecutive candles crossing the BO High Line as well as the OR High Line
to give a Candle Breakout. A illustration of such brekaout is as below:
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For both the First and Second Candle there are rules:
The First Candle high or close must have higher than or equal to the Value of BO High Line.
The Second Candle must have a high and close both highest for the day till that moment of candle close.
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However, not always we would spot two consecutive one after another BH>50%CH Candles and many a
times there are in between candles between this two BH>50%CH Candles referred humourously as the
babies of the couple with the first candle as the Mother and the Second as the Father.
These Breakout CandleS at times are highly Tiny and Lilliputian in compared to the size of OR Range
and potent enough to touch day’s high around the day’s close.
Both the case of In-between & Tiny BO Candles and would be dealt in future post.
21 Aug 17 6:10
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Nifty 50
Nifty as on 18Aug17 is tightly placed within a Range that has a Body High 9948 and Body Low 9754 as
shown in chart.
Its now a case of Breakout (BO) beyond the range 9949/9754 on a daily closing basis which must be with
a Body Breakout by a BH>50%CH Strength Candle as shown in chart.
Nifty closes above 9948 with a Green Body that has a Body Height > 50% of Candle Height as
depicted in the chart for furthur uptrend.
Nifty closes below 9754 with a Red Body that has a Body Height > 50% of Candle Height as depicted
in the chart for further down side.
Any Candle with Body Height less than (<) 50% of Candle Height anywhere in between 9949/9754 will
mean impasse and indecision till Breakout Candles appear with closing beyond the range 9949/9754.
Today 21Aug17 is the 13th Trading Day from earlier high 10134.
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It is also a Day with Void of Moon from 10:55 till close which in general is a period of endings than
beginning. Experience suggest you must try to close profitable deals if you are having Gains on the
trade. Trades entered in this VOM period must be closed before the close of day itself.
Stocks with considerable sentiment build-up over weekend will tend to loose charm during 10:55 to
close 15:30, as if it was never an event to be excited about.
Be er if positions or BTST are not held overnight as Moon enters Leo after close and remains till close of
23Aug17!
Regards
21Aug17 00:55
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