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Guoxuan High-Tech
Lithium battery leader charges ahead
Initial Coverage Initiate with Conviction BUY
Investment positives
Ticker 002074.SZ
We initiate coverage of Guoxuan High-Tech Company CICC investment rating * Conviction BUY
with Conviction BUY and a target price of Rmb45.00, or Last close Rmb 30.86
28x 2017e P/E. CICC target Rmb 45.00
with market share up from 7% to 18% (among the Shares outstanding (mn) 876
Free float (%) 53
top three in China). Over the same period, China’s demand Daily volume (mn sh) 8.26
for automotive batteries will likely have a CAGR of 25% Business sector Chemicals
while Guoxuan’s sales & output CAGR hits 50% and its
lithium battery shipments will likely reach 12GWh in 2020. 002074.SZ CSI 300
128
2017/18e P/E, implying 46% upside room. ROAE 45.4% 28.4% 28.9% 29.7%
Risks
Sales volume of AFV and automotive batteries disappoint; safety
Source: Wind, Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research
issues; valuation adjustment of growth segments.
Xuan LI Yichen XU
Analyst Associate
xuan.li@cicc.com.cn yichen.xu@cicc.com.cn
SAC Reg. No.: S0080515080008 SAC Reg. No.: S0080116080054
SFC CE Ref: BGG514
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Financial summary
Financial statement (Rmb mn) 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E Financial ratios 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E
Income statement Growth ability
Revenue 1,014 2,745 5,647 8,043 Revenue N.M. 170.7% 105.7% 42.4%
Operating costs 491 1,499 3,327 4,950 Operating profit N.M. 130.3% 100.3% 27.4%
Business tax and surcharges 10 26 53 75 EBITDA N.M. 129.3% 110.8% 33.4%
Selling expenses 60 210 433 616 Net profit N.M. 133.3% 78.2% 36.7%
Administrative expenses 93 272 560 797 Profitability
Finance costs 18 22 7 -20 Gross margin 51.6% 45.4% 41.1% 38.4%
Others 0 0 0 0 Operating margin 27.2% 23.2% 22.6% 20.2%
Operating profit 276 636 1,275 1,624 EBITDA margin 33.0% 27.9% 28.6% 26.8%
Non-operating income and expense 15 44 -68 26 Net margin 24.7% 21.3% 18.5% 17.7%
Profit before income tax 291 680 1,207 1,650 Liquidity
Income tax 41 93 165 225 Current ratio 1.47 1.66 1.65 1.60
Minority interest 0 3 0 0 Quick ratio 1.37 1.48 1.44 1.38
Net profit 251 585 1,042 1,425 Cash ratio 0.59 0.73 0.62 0.60
EBITDA 335 767 1,617 2,157 Liability / asset 57.8% 54.7% 58.2% 60.0%
Balance sheet Net debt / equity net cash net cash net cash net cash
Cash and bank balances 697 2,011 3,100 4,357 Return
Trade and bill receivables 897 1,900 3,831 5,345 RoA 19.0% 12.5% 12.4% 12.1%
Prepayments 6 64 143 212 RoE 45.4% 28.4% 28.9% 29.7%
Inventories 114 489 1,039 1,545 Per-share data
Other current assets 30 92 92 92 EPS (Rmb) 0.29 0.67 1.19 1.63
Total current assets 1,743 4,556 8,205 11,552 BPS (Rmb) 1.26 3.44 4.79 6.15
Fixed assets and CIP 476 1,358 1,487 1,494 DPS (Rmb) 0.00 0.15 0.27 0.37
Intangible assets 383 719 328 415 Cash flow per share (Rmb) 0.24 0.59 1.29 2.33
Total non-current assets 892 2,157 1,895 1,989 Valuation
Total assets 2,635 6,713 10,100 13,541 P/E 107.9 46.3 26.0 19.0
ST borrowings 403 409 394 444 P/B 24.5 9.0 6.4 5.0
Trade and bill payables 563 1,861 3,749 5,579 EV/EBITDA 80.6 33.4 15.2 10.8
Other current liabilities 219 475 835 1,206 Dividend yield 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2%
Total current liabilities 1,185 2,745 4,978 7,229
LT borrowings and bonds payable 215 148 148 148
Total non-current liabilities 315 898 898 898
Total liabilities 1,523 3,671 5,876 8,127
Shareholders' equity 1,104 3,016 4,198 5,388
Minority interest 8 26 26 26
Total liabilities & equity 2,635 6,713 10,100 13,541
Cash flow statement
Net income 251 585 1,042 1,425
Depreciation & amortization 24 68 403 527
Change in working capital -49 109 -311 110
Others -79 -324 5 -22
Cash flow from operations 213 520 1,133 2,039
Cash inflows from investing activities 0 0 0 0
Cash outflows from investing activities -164 -500 -161 -618
Cash flow from investing -164 -500 -161 -618
Equity financing 0 1,493 0 0
Bank borrowings 165 -61 -15 50
Others -35 -643 266 -429
Cash flow from financing 147 1,110 118 -164
Foreign exchange gain (loss) 0 0 0 0
Net changes in cash 195 1,132 1,090 1,256
Company description
Guoxuan High-tech Co., Ltd is a leading lithium-ion battery producer. Its main products are lithium iron phosphate materials,
batteries, power batteries, BMS systems and energy storage battery packs. The company is headquartered in Hefei and back-door
listed in 2015.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
2
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Contents
Domestic lithium battery bellwether .................................................................................. 5
Rapid capacity expansion; output/sales to grow >3.5x over 2016~20 .............................. 7
Solid sector leadership; continued market share gains ........................................................... 7
Strong downstream to bring opportunities to lithium battery business ...................................... 8
Smooth progress in capacity expansion; ternary battery deployment ....................................... 9
Beneficiary of higher entry barriers; leading products & technology to strengthen sector
leadership............................................................................................................. 11
Guoxuan is one of the few manufacturers to meet the automotive battery sector’s high entry barriers
..................................................................................................................11
Domestic bellwether in automotive battery product and R&D .................................................12
Cost controls and technical strengths to secure leading profitability ........................................14
Continued market share gains secured by value chain deployment and channel penetration
............................................................................................................................. 15
Market share secured by channel penetration and large client strategy ....................................15
Strengthened value chain deployment and cooperation with automakers .................................16
Large shareholder’s incremental shareholding and equity incentive demonstrates confidence .....20
We initiate coverage of Guoxuan with a Conviction BUY rating ........................................ 22
Risks……………… .................................................................................................................24
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
3
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Figures
Figure 1: Historical development ............................................................................................ 5
Figure 2: Guoxuan High-Tech’s equity structure as of June 30, 2016 ............................................ 5
Figure 3: China’s AFV sales (2011~15) .................................................................................... 6
Figure 4: Guoxuan’s automotive battery output & sales .............................................................. 6
Figure 5: Guoxuan’s revenue from battery business (2011~15) .................................................. 6
Figure 6: Guoxuan’s blended gross profit (2011~15) ................................................................. 6
Figure 7: Guoxuan has the third highest capacity and sales volume in China ................................. 7
Figure 8: Continued share gains in the automotive battery market .............................................. 7
Figure 9: Forecasts for automotive battery output ..................................................................... 7
Figure 10: Forecasts for automotive battery sales ...................................................................... 7
Figure 11: AFV policy and outlook .......................................................................................... 8
Figure 12: AFV output/sales to top 1.6mn in 2020 ..................................................................... 9
Figure 13: Domestic demand for lithium batteries to grow at a CAGR of 25% over 2016~20 .......... 9
Figure 14: Plans for the proceeds from the private placement ...................................................10
Figure 15: Guoxuan’s continued expansion of lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery capacity .10
Figure 16: Capacity comparison .............................................................................................11
Figure 17: The 57 companies in the AFV Battery Catalogue’s (batch 1~4) ...................................11
Figure 18: Guoxuan is the third largest supplier in the fourth batch of the AFV Battery Catalogue ..12
Figure 19: Comparison of Chinese & Korean lithium battery manufacturers .................................12
Figure 20: Guoxuan’s technical R&D .......................................................................................13
Figure 21: R&D centers around the world ................................................................................13
Figure 22: Steady gross margin amid lithium battery price decline .............................................14
Figure 23: Market share of bus makers(2015~20e) ..................................................................15
Figure 24: Market share of PV makers (2015~20e)...................................................................15
Figure 25: Guoxuan’s key clients are leading enterprises in the industry ......................................16
Figure 26: Large contracts signed in early-2016 accounted for 75% of 2015 revenue ...................16
Figure 27: Value chain deployment .........................................................................................16
Figure 28: Guoxuan’s competitive deployment along the value chain ..........................................17
Figure 29: Guoxuan’s value chain-level cooperation with firms/agencies ....................................17
Figure 30: Senior’s highest share in global separator market .....................................................18
Figure 31: Senior’s highest share in China’s separator market ....................................................18
Figure 32: Guoxuan’s cooperation with China Energine ............................................................19
Figure 33: Guoxuan’s strategic cooperation with BAIC BJEV .......................................................19
Figure 34: Funds by equity investment partners .....................................................................20
Figure 35: The private placement ...........................................................................................21
Figure 36: The earnings requirements for unlocking..................................................................21
Figure 37: Earnings forecast breakdown ..................................................................................22
Figure 38: Guoxuan’s 2017e revenue breakdown .....................................................................23
Figure 39: Guoxuan’s 2017e net profit breakdown ....................................................................23
Figure 40: Financial statements .............................................................................................23
Figure 41: P/E & P/B bands ...................................................................................................24
Figure 42: Comparable valuations ..........................................................................................24
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
4
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
As well as being China’s only listed lithium battery name which meets the
2017 Automotive Battery Industry Standards (draft), Guoxuan High-Tech’s
shipments ranked among the top three in China in 2016 with an estimated market share of
~9%. We expect its advantages in product quality, value chain deployment and channel
penetration to further consolidate its sector leadership; 2016~18e revenue and net profit
will likely grow at CAGRs of 39% and 32%, respectively.
Founded in 2006, Guoxuan is one of China’s leading producers of lithium-ion batteries and
materials. In May 2015, it went public via a backdoor listing (Rmb3.35bn injection
into Dongyuan Electrical) and raised Rmb821mn to fund a 240mn Ah
automotive battery project. Post-injection, Zhuhai Guoxuan became its controlling
shareholder, while its Chairman Li Zhen was the actual controller with a 36.46% stake. It
also brought about its transformation from power distributor to automotive battery and
power distribution & transmission supplier.
Guoxuan High-Tech
100% 100%
Hefei Dongyuan
Guoxuan Electrical
100% 65% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Guo- Guang Ameri- Su- Nan- Lu- Shang- Su- intelli- New
Shang-
xuan -tong can zhou jing jiang hai Tai- zhou Hui- Asi- gent energy
hai
New New Guo- Guo- Guo- Guo- Guo- fu Tian- de tong equip- techno-
Xuanyi
Energy Energy xuan xuan xuan xuan xuan li ment logy
Shareholders Lithium power battery & new energy technology development AFV components
BMS & AFV control Equipment for power transmission and distribution
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
5
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Figure 3: China’s AFV sales (2011~15) Figure 4: Guoxuan’s automotive battery output &
sales
400,000 (unit) 350 (mn Ah)
350,000
300
300,000
250
250,000
200
200,000
150
150,000
100
100,000
50
50,000
- 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Alternative fuel commercial vehicles Alternative fuel passenger vehicles Output Sales
Figure 5: Guoxuan’s revenue from battery Figure 6: Guoxuan’s blended gross profit
business (2011~15) (2011~15)
2,500 (Rmb mn) 250% 1,400 (Rmb mn) 160%
1,200 140%
2,000 200%
120%
1,000
0 0% 0 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Company announcement, CICC Research Source: Company announcement, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
6
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Output/sales to grow >3.5x over 2016~20. Driven by its capacity expansion and
the strong downstream demand, Guoxuan’s automotive output/sales volume will likely rise
4.2x/3.9x over 2016~20 to 13.1GWh/12.2GWh, respectively.
Market share to grow from 9% to 18%. Backed by its Rmb2.1bn worth of contracts
with Nanjing King Long and Zhongtong Bus secured in early-2016, Guoxuan’s battery
revenue will likely exceed Rmb4.6bn in 2016, a YoY increase of ~120%. As its continued
capacity expansion drives its battery business to outgrow the sector average, its market
share is expected to expand from 9% in 2016 to 18% in 2020.
Figure 7: Guoxuan has the third highest capacity Figure 8: Continued share gains in the automotive
and sales volume in China battery market
4 (Gwh) 25% 20%
18%
20%
3 16%
15% 14%
2 12%
10%
10%
1 8%
5%
6%
0 0% 4%
2%
0%
2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Batteary shipments in 2015 Market share in 2015 (RHS) Guoxuan's market share
Figure 9: Forecasts for automotive battery output Figure 10: Forecasts for automotive battery sales
14 (GWh) 80% 14 (GWh) 160%
12 70% 140%
12
60% 120%
10 10
50% 100%
8 8
40% 80%
6 6
30% 60%
4 4
20% 40%
2 10% 2 20%
0 0% 0 0%
2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Growth rate of total power battery production volumes Growth rate of total power battery sale volumes
Source: Company announcement, CICC Research Source: Company announcement, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
7
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
► Subsidy & reward: the key driver; government subsidies were as high as Rmb50bn
in 2015, while triggering a market boom, this also caused negative issues such as
subsidy fraud.
► Sector standard & catalogue: the entry barriers (Model Catalogue and Battery
Catalogue) and quality standards guided the market and product R&D.
2013.09
2015.04 2016.04~?
Notices of the 4Q16 (Expected)
Notices of the Financial Notices on Verification of
Continuation of AFV Subsidy Adjustment for
Subsidies Support Policy for AFV AFV Promotion and
Promotion and AFVs
Promotion in 2016-2020 Application
Application
2016.10
2016.09
The Technology
2012.07 AFV Carbon Quota Management Rules 2019 (Expected)
Roadmap for Fuel-
Plans Development Plan of Energy Saving (Draft)
efficient and
Development Plan for AFV
and AFV Industry (2012-2020) Policies of Fuel Consumption Points- Industry (2020-2025)
Alternative-fueled
based System for AFV
Long- Vehicles
term
policies
2014.07 2016.06 2016.10 4Q16 (Expected)
Design Specifications for Electric Safety Technology Size of Battery Product for Standards for Electric
Standards Vehicle Charging Stations Conditions for Electric Electric Vehicles Vehicles Battery
Buses (Draft) Auto Battery Code Management System
AFV output/sales to exceed 1.6mn units in 2020. Driven by policy support and
stronger demand, AFV output/sales will likely exceed 500,000 units in 2016, and rise by a
further 40% to 700,000 in 2017 and hit 1.6mn in 2020, implying a CAGR of 35%.
Demand for lithium batteries to have CAGR of 25% over 2016~20. Automotive
batteries have been in short supply due to robust sector growth and strong AFV
output/sales since 2H14. We expect demand for lithium automotive batteries to surge 145%
from 29GWh in 2016 to 71GWh in 2020, implying a CAGR of >25%, thus driving strong
earnings growth.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
8
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
1,600 350%
1,400
300%
1,200
250%
1,000
200%
800
150%
600
100%
400
200 50%
0 0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Figure 13: Domestic demand for lithium batteries to see CAGR of 25% over 2016~20
Global lithium battery & raw materials demand 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Global lithium battery demand (Gwh) 17.6 20.4 30.9 37.9 51.4 66.4 87.7 114.5 138.8 162.5 186.1 210.0
Global demand YOY (%) 10.0% 15.5% 51.8% 22.5% 35.7% 29.2% 32.0% 30.7% 21.2% 17.1% 14.5% 12.8%
Consumer electronics batteries (Gwh) 17.3 19.8 29.1 33.9 43.2 50.7 55.8 64.1 71.8 79.0 86.9 93.9
Power batteries (Gwh) 0.3 0.4 1.4 3.0 6.1 11.5 26.4 43.3 57.8 72.4 85.9 100.4
Energy storage (Gwh) 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.2 5.5 7.1 9.2 11.1 13.3 15.7
China lithium battery & raw materials demand 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
China lithium battery output (Gwh) 7.7 10.0 11.0 15.0 19.7 25.9 40.2 56.1 69.7 84.0 96.9 113.0
China output YOY (%) 25.0% 29.9% 10.4% 35.9% 31.0% 31.9% 55.2% 39.4% 24.3% 20.6% 15.3% 16.7%
Consumer electronics batteries (Gwh) 7.4 9.6 10.4 13.7 17.3 21.0 23.1 25.9 29.0 31.9 35.1 38.6
Power batteries (Gwh) 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.8 4.2 16.2 29.0 39.2 50.1 59.1 71.0
Energy storage (Gwh) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.5
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
9
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Figure 14: Plans for the proceeds from the private placement
Proposed fund-
No. Investment projects Total investment (Rmb mn)
raising (Rmb mn)
1 Industrializationization of the new generation of
lithium automotive battery with high energy
1.1 Hefei Guoxuan 600mn Ah/year high-energy LIB
1,158 950
industrializationization project
1.2 Qingdao Guoxuan 300mn Ah/year high-energy LIB
611 500
industrializationization project
1.3 Nanjing Guoxuan 300mn Ah/year high-energy LIB
604 500
industrializationization project
2 Industrialization project producing 10,000 t/year
high-nickel cathode materials and 5,000 t/year 654 500
silicon anode materials
3 210,000 units (sets)/year AFV charging facility &
389 300
key parts project
4 200,000 sets/year EV automotive powertrain control
362 250
system project
5 Engineering research institute construction project 1,066 600
Source: Company announcement, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
10
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
As the Automotive Battery Sector Standards and Automotive Storage Battery Recycling
Management take effect in 2017, we expect only five domestic players will be up to the
grade. Such policies should accelerate the capacity elimination and the crowding-out of
unqualified medium-/small-size firms, thus benefiting battery/material/equipment leaders.
According to their own plans, the companies which plan to expand capacity by >8GWh in
2017~18 are CATL (24GWh), BYD (16GWh), Guoxuan (13GWh), and, OptimumNano
(10.5GWh).
Guoxuan is one of the three companies included in the Ministry of Science &
Technology’s (MoST) list and was granted an Rmb100mn subsidy.
Guoxuan was also included in the second batch of the AFV Battery Catalog.
Some foreign and JV brands have yet to join the catalogue.
Figure 17: The 57 companies in the AFV Battery Catalogue (batches 1~4)
Related Listed Fourth Related Listed
First Batch Company Location Company Location
Company Batch Company
1 CATL Ningde, Fujian 26 China Aviation Lithium Battery Luoyang, Henan Chengfei Integration
Technology
2 Optimum Nano Shenzhen, Guangdong J&B Firefighting 27 Henan Lithium Power Source Xinxiang, Henan
3 Zhuhai Yinlong Zhuhai, Guangdong Gree Electric 28 Microvast Huzhou, Zhejiang
Appliances
4 Zibo Guoli New Power Source Zibo, Shandong 29 Narada Battery Hangzhou, Zhejiang Narada Power
Source
5 Sinopoly Battery. Tianjin FDG Electric 30 Skyrich Power Huzhou, Zhejiang
Vehicles
6 Coslight Power Harbin, Heilongjiang 31 Chaowei Chuangyuan Huzhou, Zhejiang
7 Tianjin Lishen Joint-Stock Co. Tianjin 32 Ningbo CRRC New Energy Ningbo, Zhejiang
8 Lishen Power Battery System Tianjin 33 Zhejiang GBS Energy Yuyao, Zhejiang
9 Hunan Copower EV Battery Changsha, Hunan 34 Chunlan Clean Energy Research Institute Taizhou, Jiangsu
10 Cenat New Energy Shanghai 35 Suzhou Youlion Battery Changshou, Jiangsu
36 Zhihang New Energy Taizhou, Jiangsu
Second Related Listed 37 ZTT Energy Storage Technology Nantong
Company Location
Batch Company
11 Wanxiang A123 Hangzhou, Zhejiang Wanxiang A123 38 Jiangsu Tenpower Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Aucksun
12 Huizhou BYD Battery Huizhou, Guangdong BYD 39 Jiangsu Jisheng Xintai Jiangsu Changzhou
13 Guoxuan High-Tech Power Hefei, Anhui Guoxuan High- 40 Huizhou EVE Battery Huizhou, Guangdong EVE Energy
Energy Tech
14 Citic Guoan MGL Beijing Citic Guoan 41 Cham Battery Technology Dongguan, Guangdong
15 Do-Fluoride (Jiaozuo) New Energy Jiaozuo, Henan Do-Fluoride 42 Guangzhou Great Power Guangzhou, Guangdong Great Power
16 Huanyu New Energy Xinxiang, Henan 43 Zhuhai Great Power Zhuhai, Guangdong
17 High Star Power Qidong, Jiangsu 44 Sinowatt Dongguan, Guangdong Zhenhua Science&
Technology
45 Teamgiant New Energy Shenzhen, Guangdong
Third Related Listed 46 ETC Battery Wuhu, Anhui
Company Location
Batch Company
18 Tianjin Jiewei Battery Tianjin 47 CNSG Anhui Hong Sifang Hefei, Anhui
19 Shenzhen Bak Battery Shenzhen, Guangdong Token Science 48 Melsen Power Changsha, Hunan
20 Zhongdao Energy Jincheng, Shanxi 49 Zhuoneng New Energy Qinzhou, Guangxi
21 Henan Xintaihang Power Xinxiang, Henan 50 Delangneng Power Battery Shanghai
22 Tianneng Energy Technology Huzhou, Zhejiang Tianneng Power 51 National Battery Beijing Clou Electronics
23 Mcnair Technology Dongguan, Guangdong 52 Farasis Ganzhou Ganzhou, Jiangxi
24 Phylion Battery Suzhou, Jiangsu 53 First New Energy Yichun, Jiangxi Far East Smarter
Energy
25 Wina Battery Weifang, Shandong 54 Camel Group New Energy Battery Xiangyang, Hubei Camel Group
55 Hengyu Technology Dongying, Shandong
56 Shandong Forever New Energy Zoucheng, Shandong
57 Jiexin Power Battery Shanghai
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
11
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Now that it is part of the catalogue’s key supply chain, Guoxuan supplies
batteries for 40 vehicle models, the third most in the sector. In the fourth batch
of the AFV Models Recommended for Promotion unveiled by the Ministry of Industry &
Information Technology (MIIT) in December 2016, Guoxuan supplies 40 vehicle models,
only fewer than CATL and Tianjin Lishen.
Figure 18: Guoxuan is the third largest supplier in the fourth batch of the AFV
Battery Catalogue
80 (Unit)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Chaowei…
National Battery
Optimum Nano
Xintaihang
Sound
Chunlan
Guoxuan
CALB
CATL
EVE
Phylion
Wina
Bak
Pride
BYD
Zhuhai Yinlong
Microvast
First
McNair
Highstar
Lishen
MGL
ZTT
Coslight
Units of vehicle models supplied
Higher entry barrier, AFV Battery Catalogue and entry into key supply chain to
further reinforce leadership. In the short term, we expect domestic manufacturers
included in the catalogue to see less competition from the outside while their capacity
surplus pressure eases. Over the medium/long term, the sustainability of capacity
expansion still depends on whether firms can meet auto makers’ demand.
Core AFV parts with higher technical requirements. Battery technology is what
keeps EVs from taking center stage. Among the core technologies, the motor has matured,
the electronic control is progressing along with Moore’s Law and the chassis is also no
longer a problem.
China still lags more developed countries in its research on battery materials and systems.
Despite its one-decade of development, the AFV industry is still taking shape, and its
weaknesses are common to all subsectors.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
12
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Chinese enterprises are chosen only More popular among car enterprises,
when Korean enterprises' batteries and demand will exceed supply
are not available in the market for
electric passenger cars.
Willingness of vehicle
In the past 1~2 years, phosphoric
enterprises
acid iron batteries from Chinese
enterprises are still the first choice for
the electric bus market, though the
future is tough to predict.
Source: RealLi Research, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
13
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Bochum (Germany)
Cost reductions to continue along with the capacity expansion. With key
manufacturing technologies in hand, Guoxuan is able to improve its production efficiency
and reduce its unit cost, thus creating visible cost advantages for itself. As the large-scale
production proceeds further, improved techniques will continue to cut unit costs; batteries’
higher energy density should spare more material for the same mileage. As a result, the
decline in material price can better offset the battery price cut.
Steady profitability despite YoY price decline. As disclosed by Guoxuan, the gross
margin of its automotive batteries stayed ~50% over 2013~15, while product price and
costs both dropped by ~10% on average per year. The fact that both saw the same level
of decline proved the latter to be just a natural course after capacity expansion.
Figure 22: Steady gross margin amid lithium battery price decline
7 (RMB/Wh) 55%
6 50%
5 45%
4 40%
3 35%
2 30%
1 25%
0 20%
2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2025E
Lithium-ion battery price Guoxuan's battery business gross profit margin (RHS)
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
14
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Guoxuan has built close ties with, and strong channel advantages among, downstream
automakers. We expect its key clients to take >55% of the alternative-fuel bus market
and 45% of the alternative-fuel PV in 2020.
In 2015, China’s pure electric CV output & sales reached 102,461 & 100,763 units,
respectively, of which 35,839 were produced by Guoxuan’s key clients (namely King Long
Motor, Nanjing King Long, Zhongtong, Joylong, Ankai and Nanjing Automobile), implying
demand for 3.76GWh in LFP batteries. In 2015, China’s hybrid electric CV output & sales
amounted to 23,230 & 22,947 respectively; of which, 11,364 were produced by Guoxuan’s
key clients (King Long, Zhongtong, Ankai, Nanjing King Long, AsiaStar and SunWin),
implying demand for 0.23GWh of LFP batteries. Assuming 30% of this large client
demand is met by Guoxuan, its total shipments would be 1.2GWh.
Figure 23: Market share of bus makers(2015~20e) Figure 24: Market share of PV makers (2015~20e)
Market share Market share
Bus enterprises Battery enterprises
in 2015~16 in 2020 Market share Market share
PV enterprises Battery enterprises
Yutong 18% 20% CATL, Lishen, CALB, MGL in 2015~16 in 2020
Guoxuan, CATL, Llishen, BYD 31% 23% BYD
King Long Motor 14% 15% OptimumNano, CALB,
Wanxiang Lishen, Sinopoly, Wanxiang,
Geely 18% 13%
Guoxuan, Lishen, CALB, Do-Fluoride
ZTO 13% 15%
Wanxiang, Microvast, MGL BESK, Coslight, Guoxuan,
BAIC 10% 12%
Guoxuan, CATL, Lishen, Pride
Nangjing KIng Long 5% 10% OptimumNano, CALB, Zotye 9% 10% Guoxuan, Lishen, Bak, Foster
Wanxiang
SAIC 7% 8% Wanxiang
Lishen, OptimumNano,
Foton 4% 8% Guoxuan, Sumsung SDI,
Microvast, Wanxiang JAC 7% 8%
Guoxuan, Lishen, Wanxiang, Sinoev Technologies
Ankai 4% 5%
Microvast, LGC Wanxiang, Jeiwei,
Chery 6% 7%
Guoxuan, OptimumNano, OptimumNano
Jiangsu Joylong 4% 5%
Coslight, National Battery JMC 3% 3% Sinopoly, Funeng
Guoxuan, Lishen, Changan 2% 2% Pride, Changan New Energy
Dongfeng Motor 3% 5%
OptimumNano, CALB
BYD 3% 5% BYD Other alliance CATL, Korean battery
1% 10%
Zhuhai Yinlong, OptimumNano, enterprises enterprises, etc.
Zhuhai Guangtong 3% 3%
CALB
Source: CAAM, chinaev.org, CICC Research Source: CAAM, chinaev.org, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
15
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
In 2015, China’s pure electric PV output & sales reached 152,172 & 146,719 units
respectively, of which 30,177 (20%) were produced by Guoxuan’s key clients (namely
King Long Motor, Nanjing King Long, Zhongtong, Joylong, Ankai and Nanjing Automobile),
implying demand for 0.66GWh of ternary batteries. In 2015, China’s hybrid electric PV
output & sales amounted to 62,608 & 60,663, respectively, of which 1,221 were produced
by Guoxuan’s key clients (such as Brilliance Auto), implying demand for 0.02GWh of
ternary batteries. Assuming 30% of large client demand is met by Guoxuan, its total
shipments would be 0.2GWh.
Figure 25: Guoxuan’s key clients are leading Figure 26: Large contracts signed in early 2016
enterprises in the industry amounted to 75% of 2015 revenue
(unit) Outputs of the 10 largest pure electric CV enterprises in 2015 3,000 (Rmb mn)
16,000
14,000 13,436 2,500
75% of
12,000 Guoxuan's
10,000 revenue in
8,796 8,191 2,000 2015
8,000 6,670
5,605
Contract with Nangjing King Long,
6,000 5,191 Rmb 1.058bn
1,500 Guoxuan's revenue in 2015,
4,000 3,189 3,027 2,579 2,526 Rmb 2.745bn
2,000
1,000
0
Contract with Zhong Tong Bus,
500 Rmb 1.037bn
0
Output of pure electric CVs in 2015 Contract amount Revenue in 2015
Continued deployment along lithium battery and AFV value chains. With its
technical strengths in lithium-ion automotive battery and solid market foundation,
Guoxuan consolidated its resources to strengthen its sector leadership and competitive
advantages.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
16
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Upstream
Metal resources
Li/NCM, etc.
Midstream
materials
Plans to build 10,000t/year cathode Anode
material and 5,000t/year anode materials
material project
Separators
Cooperation with Senior Electrolytes
Deployment
Deployment
Deployment
Deployment
Deployment
Plans to construct EVSE and key
manufacturing
3C consumer
Downstream
Deployment
Commercial vehicles: Zhong
Tong, Nanjing Golden Dragon, Energy storage
etc.
EV chargers
Cooperation with Tgood Finance
Others
Buying AFV sub-fund
Rapid growth of battery materials amid AFV boom. The quality of materials directly
affects a battery’s energy density, recycling performance and safety. Guoxuan keeps close
ties with its material suppliers (anode, separator and electrolyte) and has established
value chain cooperation with leading players and famous universities.
Intellectual Material Battery design Test and analysis Technology BMS System design Failure analysis
property rights development and verification development development and verification
of project and matching
management
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
17
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Guoxuan plans to expand its existing 8,000t capacity of LFP cathode material to
50,000t over the next five years and to build 10,000t nickelic ternary cathode material and
5,000t silicon-based anode material projects with the proceeds of its private placement.
Thanks to the core technologies, it now could produce and sell its own cathode materials.
Figure 30: Senior’s highest share in global Figure 31: Senior’s highest share in China’s
separator market separator market
Others Senior
19%
Asahi Zhongke
Jinhui 24% 13%
Science &
1%
Zhongke Technology
Science & Others 12%
Technology 40%
4%
Senior Celgard Jinhui
4% UBE 12% 9%
4%
South Tonen
South Korea Korea Chemical
Henan Yiteng
W-Scope SK 15% Suzhou Jieli Cangzhou 8%
6% 11% 3% Newmi-Tech Donghang Mingzhu
4% 5% 6%
Cooperation with China Energine should expand its carmaker clients, such as
Brilliance Jinbei and Chang’an Automobile. In February 2016, Guoxuan announced
it would enter into a cooperative agreement with China Energine International and
Tangshan Government to building an automotive battery project in Tangshan. Guoxuan
and China Energine will jointly set up a JV (51% stake by Guoxuan), which plans to build
1.0bn Ah capacity for Rmb3bn. Moreover, they will also cooperate in the R&D and
application of automotive batteries, graphene, wind power storage and military products.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
18
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
19
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
20
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Interests aligned by equity incentive; business and earnings growth worth watching.
According to the requirements for unlocking, 2015/16/17/18e net profit should be above
Rmb348mn/465mn/515mn/569mn, implying growth of 34%/11%/10%. In 2015, net
profit amounted to Rmb548mn, way above the requirement. We thus believe the future
growth merits attention.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
21
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
We are upbeat on Guoxuan’s future growth. The company currently mainly focuses
on the lithium-ion automotive batteries and traditional electrical equipment; considering
the AFV market boom and its rising output/sales, we forecast 2016~18e revenue to rise
106% (pro forma 87%)/42%/35% YoY to Rmb565mn/804mn/1.088bn; net profit to rise
78% (pro forma 68%)/37%/28% YoY to Rmb1.042bn/1.425bn/1.829bn, or EPS of
Rmb1.19/1.63/2.09. We initiate our coverage with Conviction BUY. The stock is
currently trading at 19x/15x 2017/18e P/E. We set a target price of Rmb45.00,
implying 28x/22x 2017/18e P/E and 46% upside room from its current price.
Figure 38: Guoxuan’s 2017e revenue breakdown Figure 39: Guoxuan’s 2017e net profit breakdown
Transmission Others Transmission Others
and 3% and 3%
distribution distribution
products products
17% 12%
LFP
LFP 1.62%
2.49% Ternary
Ternary batteries
batteries LFP batteries 11% LFP batteries
12% 65% 72%
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
22
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
PE Band PB Band
Px_Last 14x 24x 34x 44x Px_Last 1.6x 4.4x 7.2x 10x
60 RMB 60 RMB
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
Jan/14 Jun/14 Nov/14 Apr/15 Sep/15 Feb/16 Jul/16 Dec/16 Jan/14 Jun/14 Nov/14 Apr/15 Sep/15 Feb/16 Jul/16 Dec/16
Source: Wind Info, CICC Research. Shading indicates CICC forecasts; others use Wind consensus.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
23
CICC Research: December 30, 2016
Risks
► AFV and automotive battery sales disappoint. Strong AFV output/sales should
boost the sales of automotive batteries; however, if FAV growth disappoints,
Guoxuan’s core revenue might decline with slower earnings growth.
► Safety issues. As safety is one of the most important factors for batteries, any
explosions or fire accidents would hurt the brand, thus causing major losses. Thus,
safety issues might dampen both demand and earnings.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
24
CICC Research
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V160908
Translation: Xinyue ZHANG
Editing: Dom FITZSIMMONS, Se CHEN, Jim SATKO
Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong
China International Capital China International Capital China International Capital
Corporation Limited Corporation Limited – Shanghai Branch Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited
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