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INTRODUCTION
All living organisms need water in order to survive. It is also required for economic growth
and development (Hagan, 2007). Water is a necessity for the economic development of a country.
The modern society is so much dependent upon the use of water that it has become part of our life.
If forms a key part of human’s everyday life. However, population growth, expansion of business
activity, urban development, water pollution, climate change and drought have contributed to
increased water scarcity in many parts of the world. It is estimated that a fifth of the world’s
population live in areas of physical water scarcity, where there is not enough water to meet all
demands.
Water is essential to life because it heavily influences public health and living standard.
The focus on water as a necessity for life obscures the fact that in present societies only a very
small fraction of water consumption is used for drinking and for sustaining human life. A large
proportion of water is used in an industry as matter of fact every manufactured product uses water
during some part of the production process. As a result, water is considered the backbone for
economy’s prosperity and progress, thus it plays a crucial role in socio-economic development.
Water consumption model reveals a significant trend due to socio-economic factors. The monthly
behavior of our forecast values depicts that the water consumption is more for summer season and
this demand is expected to increase in the future. The forecast model and the forecast values reveal
The Cagayan de Oro City Water District or (COWD) is an investor owned water
increasing consumption of water that are essential to life and work of the residents. Usage will
continue to increase because of rising living standards. With the premise, there is a need to predict
the future water consumption to help COWD to be prepared and for them to provide sufficient
Statistical forecasting is a method that uses the past to predict the future by identifying
trends and patterns within the data to develop a forecast. Time Series Analysis comprises methods
for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of
the data. Time series analysis comprises methods or processes that breakdown a series into
components and explainable portions that allows trends to be identified, estimates and forecasts to
be made. Basically time series analysis attempts to understand the underlying context of the data
points through the use of a model to forecast future values based on known past values. Such time
series models include MA, AR, ARIMA, GARCH, TARCH, EGARCH, FIGARCH, CGARCH
and ARIMA among others but the focus of this study is the ARIMA model.
This model, namely: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average is the preferred tool for
many predictive data applications because of their flexibility, accuracy and ease of use. It posses’
the capability to generalize. Thus, they can predict new outcomes from past trends.
This study deals with the application of ARIMA for water consumption in Cagayan de Oro
City. The forecast of water consumption 5 years from now will be show in the study.
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1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Cagayan de Oro City’s growing population and developing technology have demanded
increasing of water consumption to provide water to the life and work of the residents. Usage will
continue to increase because of rising living standards. With the premise, there is a need to predict
the future water consumption to help COWD to be prepared and for them to provide sufficient
water consumption for their customers’ needs. The study deals with the application of Time Series
This research aims to formulate a model for the monthly water consumption in Cagayan
1. Formulate the possible ARIMA model for forecasting the monthly water consumption in
2. Determine the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the ARIMA model.
3. Validate the forecast result of the ARIMA model using 2015 to 2017 COWD data.
4. Compare the actual value of Cagayan de Oro Water District (COWD) and predicted value.
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1.4 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The significance of the study is to estimate the water consumption so that one can analyze
the future status of the water consumption of Cagayan de Oro City using mathematical model.
Through this, COWD can picture out and evaluate the changes of water consumption monthly.
Furthermore, the water forecast will also give hints for the right action in preparing programs,
projects and initiatives on water conservation to prevent water crisis. This study will help COWD
provide a sufficient water in Cagayan de Oro City’s needs by the actual consumption figures.
This study only deals with the total monthly historical data of Cagayan de Oro City water
consumption from January 2009 to December 2017. This study deals with the total monthly
historical data of Cagayan de Oro City water consumption by group of consumers such as
residential, commercial and industrial from January 2009 to December 2017. The data shall be
primarily used in forecasting the water consumption for the next five years.
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CHAPTER 2
This chapter discussed the studies gathered from theses that have been carried out
Water is considered as lifeline of all living things especially humans, hence its availability
is a critical component in the measurement of human wellbeing through the Human Development
Index (HDI). Its production and distribution in Ghana particularly in the Hohoe Municipality of
identify the best fit time series model to the water consumption data in the Hohoe Municipality
and to forecast water consumption in the Municipality. This underpins the development of a time
series model for forecasting water consumption levels of the residents, institutions and businesses
in the municipality. Several time series models including AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and SARIMA
were fitted to the data, and it emerged that the most adequate model for the data was ARIMA (2,
1, 2). There will be no astronomical increases in water consumption levels in the municipality over
the next 4 years. It is recommended that the Ghana Water Company Limited should use the model
and its forecasted figures in its operational and planning activities (Todoko, April 2013).
The trends of increasing water demand and drought occurrences in Nebraska’s urban areas
pose a new crucial issue to water resource management. Former studies in Nebraska mainly
focused on rural water demand caused by intensive agricultural irrigation, while largely ignoring
the growing municipal water use. Therefore, this thesis aims to investigate total water use and
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consumptive water use in three major urban land use categories of residential, CIO (commercial,
industrial and others), and open space. Three case cities are City of Lincoln, Grand Island and
Sidney. First, a reliable and feasible methodology of estimating consumptive water use is
developed based on the analysis of end water use activities. Then, possible influential factors (e.g.
population, total landscape area) are statistically examined to evaluate their effects on the amount
of total and consumptive water use. Afterwards, quantity classification and spatial autocorrelation
analyses are used to visually assess and quantify the spatial patterns of total and consumptive water
use at the census block level, 2010. In the three case cities, residential consumptive water use
varies from 31% to 57% of total water use, and positive relationships with precipitation and aridity
are identified. CIO consumptive water use percentage ranges from 19% to 27%. Open space
consumptive water use is nearly equal to the open space total water use. Census block level linear
models are identified between influential factors and amount of water use, which has been rarely
applied by previous research. First, the best predictors of residential total water use area population
and total landscape area in three case cities. A positive correlation between residential consumptive
water use and total landscape area is identified in the Sidney while similar relationship is not found
in the other two cities. Second, there is no linear regression relationship identified between CIO
total water use/consumptive water use and available independent variables in this study. Third,
both open space total water use and consumptive water use can be positively related to total
landscape area. Spatially, high water use blocks are commonly clustered in suburban areas with
larger lots and lower population densities. Low water use blocks are commonly located near
downtown living areas with less yard area and higher population densities. Overall, the
methodology and statistical outcome can improve the understanding of urban water supplies and
uses in dissimilar urban areas across Nebraska, providing foundation for further urban water
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A time series model of monthly brackish water consumption in the State of Kuwait was
developed as a set of equations representing the effects of four factors on water consumption,
time series explained 96% of the total variations of the series after logarithmic transformation,
Autocorrelation(3.6%) and Climatic Correlation(1.2%). At the last stage of the study, the built
model was used to generate a one-step- ahead forecast for one year to forecast data that were not
used in model building. The model proved its adequacy (Al-Saati, N. H., 1988).
Accurate short-term water demand forecasts are imperative for the decision making process
in water management. It can be applied in the design, future studies, and for possible quality
distribution problems. A double seasonal ARIMA model is used to generate water demands
forecast (one-day) for a district metering area (DMA). Harmony Search is applied to the parameter
estimation of the ARIMA model based on historical water demand data. The Harmony Search
optimization algorithm is based on a musical theory process to search for a perfect harmony. A
least-squares objective function is formulated by minimizing the random shock series. Real
residential water meter readings are used to validate the proposed method by comparing the
observed water demand series with the ARIMA model generated time series. The simulation
results show a good correspondence to measured water demands primarily on typical days and
demonstrate that the harmony search is effective (Jorge Luiz Steffen, P. C.,2017).
In this paper, we examine the daily water demand forecasting performance of double
seasonal univariate time series models (Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA and GARCH) based on
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multi-step ahead forecast mean squared errors. We investigate whether combining forecasts from
different methods and from different origins and horizons could improve forecast accuracy. We
use daily data for water consumption in Spain from 1 January 2001 to 30 June 2006 (Caiado,
September 2007).
specific feature of the forecasted time series is that water consumption occurs at random time steps.
This substantially limits the application of the standard state-of-the art forecasting methods. The
other existing forecasting models dedicaetd to predicting water consumption in households rely on
data. To overcome those limitations, we propose in this paper a Box-Jenkins Method to be applied
for the forecasting of the domestic water consumption time series. The proposesd theoretical
approach has been tested using real-world data gathered from a anonymous household (Wojciech
Froelich, E. M.,2016)
Box-Jenkins ARIMA models were used to analyze and forecast monthly water
consumption in Baghdad city for the years (1983-1990).The identified statistical model explains
96% of the total variation of the time series, while the original data needed natural logarithmic
transformation.Using the model for a forecast during 1991gave a forecast accuracy in terms of
Absolute Relative Error (AARE=2.3%)compared with the recorded data.This proved model
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CHAPTER 3
In this chapter, there is a review of the work of several authors concerning concept
definitions and various researches done. It presents a simple overview of the problems and
procedures of the study. It introduces statistical concepts, theories and methods that will be used
A time series is a sequence of observations which are ordered in time (or space). If
observations are made on some phenomenon throughout time, it is most semible to display the
data in the order in which they arose, particularly since successive observations will probably
independent. Time is called the independent variable. There are two kinds of time series data:
continuous and discrete. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to predict future values based
on previously observed values. Time series are very frequently plotted via line charts.
Time series models will often make use of the natural one-way ordering of time so that
values for a given period will be expressed as deriving in some way from past values, rather than
the most general class of models for forecasting a time series which can be stationeries by
transformations such as differencing and logging. In fact, the easiest way to think of ARIMA
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models is as fined tuned versions of random walk and random-trend models: the fine-tuning
consists of adding lags of the differenced series and/or lags of the forecast errors to the prediction
equation.
The ARIMA procedure analyzes and forecast equally a time series data, transfer function
time series as a linear combination of its own past values, past errors and current past values of
other time series. ARIMA is the preferred tool for many predictive data applications because of
their flexibility, accuracy the processes are easy to understand, and the results are easy to interpret.
As a result, this model has been one of the most widely use linear models in time series forecasting.
term called lags of differenced series appearing in the forecasting equation while the “moving-
average” term is lags of the forecast errors, and a time series that needs to be differenced to be
p: the number of lag observation included in the model, also called the lag order.
d: the number of times that the raw observations are differenced, also called the degree of
differencing.
q: the size of the moving average window, also called the order of moving average.
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3.1.1 THE THREE STAGES OF ARIMA MODELLING
The Box-Jenkins model uses iterative three-stage modeling approach which is:
1. The Model Identification and Model Selection: making sure that the variables are
and using plots of the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of the dependent time
series to decide which (if any) autoregressive or moving average component should be used in the
model.
best fit the selected ARIMA model. The most common methods use maximum likelihood
univariate process. In particular, the residuals should be independent of each other and constant in
mean and variance over time (plotting the mean and variance of residuals over time and performing
a Ljung-Box test or plotting autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation of the residuals are helpful
to identify misspecification). If the estimation is inadequate, we have to return to step one and
The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) also known as mean absolute
The difference between 𝐴𝑡 and 𝐹𝑡 is divided by the actual value again. The absolute value
in this calculation is summed for every forecasted point in time and divided by the number
of fitted point’s n.
3.2 METHODOLOGY
AVERAGE
The gathered data from Cagayan de Oro City will be used for conducting time series
It assures that the data did not possess any seasonal behavior. The test was also
The time series plot of a data is used to discuss if the stationarity of the data exists.
If the time series varies about fixed level and has a constant mean and constant variance
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4. Model for Forecasting
ARIMA processes which might provide a good fit to the data. Looking at the measure of
accuracy values had led to model selection tools using the MAPE.
This will served as the accuracy of the ARIMA model. By comparing the actual value
and the predicted value of the residential, commercial and industrial sectors for the
Forecast the monthly water consumption of Cagayan de Oro City for 2018-2022.
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CHAPTER 4
This chapter contains the results and discussions of the proposed model used in this study.
4.1: Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average from January 2009 to December 2014
Year
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Figure 4.1.2 Monthly Water Consumption Time Series Graph (Commercial)
Cubic Meter
Year
Year
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Figures 4.1.1 to 4.1.3 represent time series graph of the actual values of the residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors of Cagayan de Oro City from January 2009 to December 2014.
Based on the figures, notice that there has an unexpected sudden drop of water in residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors because of the natural calamity that happened in Cagayan de
Figure 4.1.4 ACF and PACF Plot of the Monthly Water Consumption in Residential
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Figure 4.1.5 ACF and PACF Plot of the Monthly Water Consumption in Commercial
Figure 4.1.6 ACF and PACF Plot of the Monthly Water Consumption in Industrial.
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From the Figure 4.1.4 to 4.1.6, PACF coefficient shows that lag 1, lag 2 and lag 5 has the
highest significant spike in Residential Sector compared to other lags. It suggests an AR(1), AR(2)
or AR(5). For Commercial Sector lag 1, lag 2, lag 3 and lag 4 has the highest significant spike. It
suggests an AR(1), AR(2), AR(3) or AR(4). And for the Industrial Sector lag 1, lag 3, lag 4 and
lag 5 has the highest significant spike. It suggests an AR(1), AR(3), AR(4) or AR(5). ACF
coefficient shows that lag 1, lag 3, lag 4 and lag 5 has the highest significant spike in Residential
Sector compared to other lags. It suggests an MA(1), MA(3), MA(4) or MA(5). Also, in
Commercial Sector lag 1, lag 4 and lag 5. It suggests an MA(1), MA(4) or MA(5). And for the
Industrial Sector lag 1, lag 2, lag 3 and lag 5. It suggests an MA(1), MA(2), MA(3) and The
possible ARIMA models take the form (p, d, q), where p represents the AR term, d represents the
number of time series data was differenced, and q represents the MA term.
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Forecast Results of ARIMA Model:
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Table 4.1.3 SUMMARY OF MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR OF THE
MODEL MAPE
(1,1,1) 5.4767
(1,1,2) 5.4451
(1,1,3) 4.7198
(1,1,5) 4.7121
(3,1,1) 4.7386
(3,1,2) 4.7669
(3,1,3) 4.5752
(3,1,5) 4.4808
(4,1,1) 4.5727
(4,1,2) 4.5857
(4,1,3) 4.4104
(4,1,5) 4.482
(5,1,1) 4.4708
(5,1,2) 4.4748
(5,1,3) 4.4244
(5,1,5) 4.488
Table 4.1.1 to 4.1.3 shows the parameter estimates of the given autoregressive lag and
moving average lag of the forecasting ARIMA models. The models having the least mean absolute
percentage error (MAPE) would be chosen for forecasting. The lowest MAPE obtained in
Residential, Commercial and Industrial Sectors are 2.9326, 3.397, and 4.4104 respectively. The
ARIMA(5,1,5), ARIMA(3,1,5) and ARIMA(4,1,3) are the best model to forecast the monthly
SECTOR
Cubic Meter
Year
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Figure 4.1.8: FORECAST PLOT OF THE WATER CONSUMPTION IN COMMERCIAL
SECTOR
Cubic Meter
Year
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Figure 4.1.9: FORECAST PLOT OF THE WATER CONSUMPTION IN INDUSTRIAL
SECTOR
Cubic Meter
Year
Figures 4.1.7 to 4.1.9 show the graph of the actual data gathered and the forecasting results
of ARIMA models for water consumption in year 2015-2022. Based on the graphs, water
consumption in residential, commercial and industrial sectors will increase on the next eight years
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Table 4.1.4: Comparison of Actual and Forecasted Monthly Water Consumption for the
Month Actual Predicted Error Actual Predicted Error Actual Predicted Error
January
2,008,761 1,915,986 4.62 2,001,668 1,894,841 5.34 1,964,902 1,905,382 3.03
February
1,859,246 1,921,599 -3.35 1,892,483 1,940,752 -2.55 1,922,352 1,971,459 -2.55
March
1,785,868 1,812,520 -1.49 1,937,543 1,860,768 3.96 1,884,917 1,904,664 -1.05
April
1,953,399 1,860,559 4.75 1,959,460 1,892,687 3.41 1,979,105 1,908,911 3.55
May
1,944,518 1,904,099 2.08 2,005,601 1,948,392 2.85 1,943,461 1,978,516 -1.80
June
1,952,361 1,841,243 5.69 1,968,327 1,874,079 4.79 2,011,388 1,915,945 4.75
July
1,919,077 1,897,106 1.14 2,007,249 1,898,886 5.40 1,998,597 1,913,256 4.27
August
1,949,742 1,926,218 1.21 1,981,905 1,956,554 1.28 2,075,554 1,985,030 4.36
September
1,915,581 1,837,865 4.06 1,962,045 1,882,746 4.04 1,981,316 1,926,773 2.75
October
1,894,052 1,881,719 0.65 1,895,310 1,900,912 -0.30 1,923,835 1,917,572 0.33
November
1,859,186 1,929,787 -3.80 1,878,550 1,964,284 -4.56 1,978,140 1,991,358 -0.67
December
1,914,922 1,855,777 3.09 1,895,059 1,894,464 0.03 1,966,962 1,937,967 1.47
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Table 4.1.5: Comparison of Actual and Forecasted Monthly Water Consumption for the
Month Actual Predicted Error Actual Predicted Error Actual Predicted Error
January
188,561 177,943 5.63 187,367 193,523 -3.29 189,712 199,897 -5.37
February
190,851 181,155 5.08 196,576 193,746 1.44 189,893 200,431 -5.55
March
183,252 180,992 1.23 199,028 194,381 2.33 197,769 200,998 -1.63
April
176,220 183,881 -4.35 197,781 195,167 1.32 199,308 201,495 -1.10
May
180,540 186,960 -3.56 190,337 195,463 -2.69 199,052 202,043 -1.50
June
187,513 186,471 0.56 185,924 196,153 -5.50 194,517 202,584 -4.15
July
181,613 188,798 -3.96 189,171 196,738 -4.00 192,871 203,097 -5.30
August
184,471 189,913 -2.95 187,863 197,146 -4.94 201,218 203,645 -1.21
September
180,252 189,887 -5.35 190,774 197,807 -3.69 205,900 204,174 0.84
October
185,748 191,584 -3.14 189,690 198,310 -4.54 197,519 204,699 -3.64
November
189,046 191,958 -1.54 189,075 198,801 -5.14 200,715 205,242 -2.26
December
195,348 192,368 1.53 195,293 199,410 -2.11 203,121 205,768 -1.30
Average percentage Average percentage Average percentage
-0.90 -2.57 -2.68
error: error: error:
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Table 4.1.6: Comparison of Actual and Forecasted Monthly Water Consumption for the
Month Actual Predicted Error Actual Predicted Error Actual Predicted Error
January
115,707 112,664 2.63 124,911 120,595 3.46 126,475 125,229 0.99
February
111,235 113,601 -2.13 117,051 121,921 -4.16 126,596 125,893 0.56
March
110,836 116,560 -5.16 118,686 121,635 -2.48 125,846 125,917 -0.06
April
117,480 119,563 -1.77 121,187 122,875 -1.39 132,873 126,539 4.77
May
115,693 120,101 -3.81 126,891 122,642 3.35 122,702 126,607 -3.18
June
125,009 122,091 2.33 123,949 123,660 0.23 129,679 127,180 1.93
July
121,076 120,940 0.11 126,115 123,405 2.15 128,581 127,278 1.01
August
122,981 121,941 0.85 125,243 124,232 0.81 134,145 127,806 4.73
September
118,502 120,353 -1.56 127,184 124,003 2.50 130,266 127,931 1.79
October
117,499 121,209 -3.16 126,461 124,732 1.37 131,680 128,426 2.47
November
116,031 120,046 -3.46 120,718 124,587 -3.20 133,811 128,578 3.91
December
114,898 121,189 -5.48 130,196 125,278 3.78 135,415 129,048 4.70
Average percentage Average percentage Average percentage
-1.72 0.53 1.97
error: error: error:
Forecasted values, present in Tables 4.1.4 to 4.1.6, of the three sectors under water
consumption are then obtained. Notice that comparing the actual value and the predicted value of
the three sectors, namely the residential, commercial and industrial their relative percent error were
less than five percent error. According to Marco Benvenuti, a famous chief marketing and strategy
officers, there is no certain error margin is acceptable in comparing the actual data to the forecasted
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data. However, most business an average error of 20 percent is acceptable especially if the values
or data are quit big. Comparing the percent error that was obtained in this study, it can be said that
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The forecasted ARIMA values are shown in Table 4.1.7 below for the year 2018 until
2022. The data displayed is described as monthly, from January up to December respectively.
January
1,922,296 1,944,013 1,970,874 2,002,770 2,039,003
February
1,997,267 2,018,247 2,035,748 2,051,427 2,067,036
March
1,949,020 1,993,187 2,035,516 2,074,561 2,109,363
April
1,927,248 1,950,240 1,978,394 2,011,461 2,048,610
May
2,002,939 2,022,890 2,039,770 2,055,268 2,071,123
June
1,960,166 2,004,007 2,045,632 2,083,685 2,117,342
July
1,932,528 1,956,793 1,986,224 2,020,408 2,058,394
August
2,008,286 2,027,334 2,043,705 2,059,133 2,075,334
September
1,971,229 2,014,681 2,055,522 2,092,530 2,125,029
October
1,938,109 1,963,673 1,994,353 2,029,596 2,068,333
November
2,013,395 2,031,612 2,047,582 2,063,047 2,079,688
December
1,982,260 2,025,193 2,065,170 2,101,091 2,132,427
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Table 4.1.8: FORECASTED MONTHLY WATER CONSUMPTION FOR THE YEAR
January
208,832 216,287 219,006 221,997 229,877
February
209,517 211,580 216,020 225,486 235,817
March
204,469 210,723 221,219 230,405 234,524
April
206,005 216,783 224,308 227,078 230,031
May
211,912 217,565 219,649 224,026 233,430
June
210,333 212,523 218,702 229,160 238,397
July
205,932 213,962 224,733 232,328 235,149
August
209,598 219,882 225,610 227,718 232,034
September
214,418 218,398 220,578 226,683 237,102
October
210,934 213,964 221,919 232,682 240,346
November
208,014 217,542 227,850 233,655 235,787
December
213,278 222,412 226,461 228,634 234,664
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Table 4.1.9: FORECASTED MONTHLY WATER CONSUMPTION FOR THE YEAR
January
129,227 133,121 136,986 140,842 144,693
February
129,678 133,492 137,327 141,170 145,017
March
129,880 133,766 137,629 141,484 145,335
April
130,313 134,130 137,967 141,811 145,658
May
130,532 134,411 138,272 142,126 145,977
June
130,948 134,769 138,607 142,452 146,300
July
131,182 135,056 138,915 142,768 146,618
August
131,583 135,408 139,248 143,093 146,941
September
131,829 135,700 139,557 143,410 147,260
October
132,219 136,047 139,888 143,734 147,582
November
132,475 136,343 140,200 144,052 147,902
December
132,855 136,687 140,529 144,376 148,224
Forecasted values presented in Table 4.1.7 to 4.1.9, of the three sectors under water
consumption are then obtained. Notice that the three sectors, namely the residential, commercial,
and industrial are observed to have increasing behavior. In connection with this, water
consumption within Cagayan de Oro City are more likely increasing for the next five years.
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CHAPTER 5
This chapter presents the summary and conclusions based on the findings of the study, as
5.1 SUMMARY
This research work utilizes a 72-month data set from 2009-2014 as input and output data
to construct predictive models. Consequently, the identified models were examined and tested if
all the parameters are significant by validation process. Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) modelling was used to obtain the monthly forecasts of the Water Consumption
in residential, commercial and industrial sector within Cagayan de Oro City from 2015 to 2022.
After formulating, the researcher was used the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in its three (3) sectors, namely:
Residential Sector, Commercial Sector and Industrial Sector with a MAPE of 2.9326, 3.397 and
4.4104 respectively. In addition, the ARIMA model are ARIMA(5,1,5), ARIMA(3,1,5) and
ARIMA(4,1,3) respectively.
In validating the result, the researcher was used the actual monthly water consumption from
year 2015 to 2017 and the predicted value of the ARIMA model to examine the accuracy of the
ARIMA model. By comparing the actual value and the predicted value, the highest percentage
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5.2 CONCLUSION
The focus of this study is to forecast the Water Consumption in Cagayan de Oro City using
the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. This study demonstrated the
It investigated relationship between predicted values for a current year based on previous
year’s estimate. The study considered actual monthly water consumption data over the period of
To evaluate forecasting accuracy of the ARIMA model, the least mean absolute percentage
error in residential, commercial and industrial sectors is selected as the most accurate and reliable
method.
After obtaining the results of ARIMA model, the actual data was compared with the
predicted values year 2015 to 2017 to validate and to measure the accuracy the proposed ARIMA
model. Using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the accumulated error is five percent error.
Base on the result, the present investigation on using ARIMA model to forecast water
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5.3 RECOMMENDATION
This study would like to recommend the following for further improvement of the study:
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References
Yao Li, M. (2013). Analysis of Urban Water Use and Urban Consumptive Water
Use In Nebraska - Case Study in the City Of Lincoln, Grand Island and
Sidney.
Hagan, I. (2007). Modeling the impact of small reservoirs in the Upper East
Region of Ghana.
MSc thesis submitted to Lund University Press, Sweden.
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