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Ontario
Voter Intentions & Party Leaders’
Favourability Ratings
Ontario Liberal Voters’ Preferred Choice
For Leader
Different Ballot Scenarios With
Potential Ontario Liberal Leaders
23 May 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have slid to third, Premier Doug
Ford’s favourability ratings have now fallen below those of Kathleen Wynne’s at the end of her tenure,
while Liberal voters say that John Tory is their most preferred choice to lead the Ontario Liberal Party.
Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest Ontario survey. The poll surveyed 996 Ontarians
between May 21st to 22nd, 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% and is accurate 19 times out
of 20.
“More and more Ontarians are turning away from Doug Ford as his support is collapsing,” said Quito
Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “We have never seen an imcumbent premier reach
these depths in popular opinion with barely a year into his mandate.”
Premier Ford has a net favourability rating of -53.5%. By comparison, Wynne’s net favourability rating
stood at -35.3% on April 30th, 2018. NDP leader Andrea Horwath’s net rating is +20.3%, interim Liberal
leader John Fraser’s net rating is +7.4%, while Green Party leader Mike Schreiner has a net rating of
+11.4%.
The poll also asked respondents who said that they would vote Liberal today who they would prefer as
Ontario Liberal leader. Among decided Liberal voters, 65% say they want to see Toronto mayor John
Tory, while 5.2% say they would prefer former cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello. Declared candidates
Steven Del Duca and Michael Coteau have 3.3% and 5%, respectively. Former education minister Mitzie
Hunter, widely expected to jump in the race, has 11.1%.
However, 54% of Liberals voters said that they were undecided about who the next leader should be.
Respondents were also presented with different ballot scenarios with Tory, Pupatello, Del Duca, Hunter,
and Coteau as potential Ontario Liberal leaders.
• 39.1% said that they would vote Liberal if Tory were leader;
• 29.6% said they would vote Liberal if Pupatello were leader;
• 27.8% would vote Liberal if Del Duca led the Ontario Liberal Party;
• 28.1% would vote Liberal if Coteau were at the helm of the Ontario Liberals;
• 28% said they would vote Liberal if Hunter were leading the party.
“Only John Tory is outperforming the current Liberal number, indicating that he is the only potential
leadership candidate that can add some value to the Ontario Liberal brand at this moment,” added
Maggi.
The poll also surveyed Ontarians who they would vote for if an election were held today. Among decided
and leaning voters, the Liberals with interim leader John Fraser at the helm have 39.9% (+13.9% since
April), while the NDP have 24.2% (-2.4%). The PCs have 22.4% (-10%), while the Greens have 12% (+3%).
-30-
7.7%
1.7%
20.8%
10.8%
All Voters
22.2%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
22.2%
39.9%
24.2%
36.8%
21.4%
27%
Toronto
39.8%
9.9%
1.9%
Greater Toronto Area
24.2%
17.8%
40.7%
14.2%
3.1%
22.3%
Eastern Ontario
25.5%
47.7%
4.5%
0
South Central Ontario
21.7%
31.5%
30.2%
13.2%
3.4%
Southwestern Ontario
20.7%
28.1%
34.2%
15.8%
1.2%
24.5%
Northern Ontario
16.5%
52.7%
6.4%
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
60
50
40
30
20
10
4.8%
3.3%
2.4%
2.3%
1.5%
29.9%
11.1%
10.4%
5.1%
5.2%
54%
65%
5%
0
All Voters Decided Voters Only
Michael Coteau Steven Del Duca Mitzie Hunter Sandra Pupatello John Tory
100%
100%
7.7%
7.7% 7.7%
7.7%
90%
90% 11.8%
11.8% 12.1%
12.1% 12.4% 12.1%
12.1%
12.4%
8.9%
8.9%
80%
80% 10.8%
10.8%
10.8%
10.8% 10.9%
11.2%
11.2% 10.9% 12.5%
12.5%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
29.6%
29.6% 27.8%
27.8% 28.1%
28.1% 28%
28%
36.8%
36.8% 39.1%
39.1%
40%
40%
30%
30%
22.2%
22.2% 22.3% 25%
25% 25.4%
25.4% 25.6%
25.6% 24.7%
24.7%
20%
20% 22.3%
10%
10%
0%
0% 20.8%
20.8% 20.3%
20.3% 21.3%
21.3% 21.2%
21.2% 21%
21% 20.9%
20.9%
Current OLP
Current OLP John
John Tory
Tory Sandra
SandraPupatello
Pupatello Steven
StevenDel
DelDuca
Duca Michael
MichaelCoteau
Coteau Mitzie
MitzieHunter
Hunter
Support
Support
100%
4.2%
90%
12.1% 13.1%
14.4%
80% 8.1%
70%
100%
90%
60% 12.1% 13.1%
14.4%
80% 8.1%
50% 29.8%
70%
60%
40% 45.9%
0%
0% 19.9%
19.9% 50.1%
50.1% 20.8%
20.8% 26.2%
26.2%
Doug
DougFord
Ford Andrea
Andrea Horwath
Horwath JohnFraser
John Fraser MikeSchreiner
Mike Schreiner
Favourable
Favourable Opinion
Opinion Unfavourable Opinion
Unfavourable Opinion Notfamiliar
Not familiar Notsure
Not sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 20.8% 27.5% 14.4% 20.9% 22.7% 23% 15.3% 19.9% 22.2% 21.3% 20% 19.6% 23%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
22.2% 19.5% 24.8% 33.3% 18.5% 16.5% 19.1% 25.6% 16% 23.7% 30.2% 25% 12.5%
Horwath
Liberals led by John
36.8% 32.9% 40.5% 28.8% 38.6% 38.3% 43.9% 36.9% 37.6% 45.3% 26.3% 30.6% 50.3%
Fraser
Greens led by Mike
10.8% 10.5% 11.1% 10.8% 13% 9.3% 10% 9.1% 13.2% 3.4% 12.6% 14.7% 6.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 2% 2.1% 0.7% 1.8% 2.7% - 3.2% 1.2% -
Undecided 7.7% 7.8% 7.6% 4.7% 5.1% 10.8% 10.9% 6.7% 8.4% 6.3% 7.7% 8.8% 8%
Unweighted Frequency 996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Weighted Frequency 996 490 506 280 251 273 192 232 274 133 89 208 61
If the provincial election were held today with the following party leaders,
which party would you vote for? SCENARIO 1 - JOHN TORY
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 20.3% 26.9% 14% 20.8% 20% 23.2% 16.1% 20.8% 21.2% 18.9% 23.6% 17.5% 23%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
22.3% 18.9% 25.7% 33.8% 19.1% 17.1% 17.4% 22.1% 18% 28.5% 27.4% 24.1% 15.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Tory 39.1% 36.4% 41.7% 30.2% 41.7% 42.2% 44.3% 43.6% 42.1% 37.6% 32.2% 35% 36.3%
Greens led by Mike
8.9% 8.2% 9.6% 9.2% 9% 7.9% 9.9% 4.8% 10% 5.6% 6.9% 15.3% 8.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.1% 3.3% 0.9% 0.8% 1.3% 2% 1% 1.8% 1.9% -
Undecided 7.7% 7.8% 7.7% 4.9% 6.9% 8.8% 11.5% 7.5% 6.6% 8.5% 8.1% 6.2% 16.9%
Unweighted Frequency 996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Weighted Frequency 996 490 506 280 251 273 192 232 274 133 89 208 61
If the provincial election were held today with the following party leaders,
which party would you vote for? SCENARIO 2 - SANDRA PUPATELLO
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 21.3% 28.7% 14.1% 21.3% 22.9% 23.3% 16.3% 20.6% 22.7% 21.3% 22.6% 19.9% 20.5%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
25% 22.6% 27.3% 35.4% 20.2% 21.2% 21.4% 29.3% 19.6% 28.2% 29.7% 25.9% 15.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by Sandra
29.6% 25.1% 34% 27.3% 30.7% 29.4% 31.9% 29.4% 33.8% 25.5% 23.3% 28.9% 32.6%
Pupatello
Greens led by Mike
10.8% 10.5% 11.1% 10.5% 12% 9.6% 11.5% 7.5% 12.4% 5% 7.9% 17.4% 10.7%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 0.6% 2% 1.8% 1.4% 2.5% 1.8% - 3.2% 0.4% -
Undecided 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 4.9% 12.2% 14.6% 17.5% 10.6% 9.7% 19.9% 13.4% 7.6% 20.5%
Unweighted Frequency 996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Weighted Frequency 996 490 506 280 251 273 192 232 274 133 89 208 61
If the provincial election were held today with the following party leaders,
which party would you vote for? SCENARIO 3 - STEVEN DEL DUCA
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 21.2% 27.5% 15.2% 20.9% 22.3% 24.7% 15.2% 19.8% 23.3% 22.7% 22.3% 18.7% 20.5%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
25.4% 23.2% 27.5% 35% 22.4% 21.3% 21.2% 29.1% 21.2% 24.8% 29.5% 28.2% 15.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by Steven Del
27.8% 23.8% 31.7% 25.2% 29.5% 26.9% 30.7% 25.5% 30.7% 29.3% 22.5% 25.8% 35.1%
Duca
Greens led by Mike
11.2% 11.5% 10.9% 11.1% 12.4% 9.4% 12.3% 9.4% 12.3% 4.4% 10.9% 17.1% 8.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 2.3% 1.8% 2.7% 3.1% 2.1% 2% 1.7% 3.3% 2% 3.5% 2.6% 1.3% -
Undecided 12.1% 12.2% 12.1% 4.7% 11.3% 15.7% 18.9% 12.8% 10.5% 15.4% 12.2% 8.9% 20.5%
Unweighted Frequency 996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Weighted Frequency 996 490 506 280 251 273 192 232 274 133 89 208 61
If the provincial election were held today with the following party leaders,
which party would you vote for? SCENARIO 4 - MICHAEL COTEAU
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 21% 28.3% 13.9% 21.2% 22.1% 23.8% 15.3% 19.3% 23.1% 21.7% 20% 18.9% 25.1%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
25.6% 22% 29% 35.4% 19.1% 23.6% 22.4% 29.8% 20.9% 26.9% 30.4% 27.6% 13.5%
Horwath
Liberals led by Michael
28.1% 26.2% 30% 24.8% 33.4% 27.1% 27.5% 28.5% 32.4% 25.6% 21% 26.4% 29%
Coteau
Greens led by Mike
10.9% 10.2% 11.6% 12% 12% 8.4% 11.5% 8.8% 10.5% 7.1% 10.4% 17.2% 8.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 2% 1.9% 2.1% 2% 2.7% 1.6% 1.8% 3.4% 1.6% 1.9% 4.6% 0.7% -
Undecided 12.4% 11.3% 13.5% 4.6% 10.7% 15.6% 21.5% 10.2% 11.6% 16.9% 13.5% 9.2% 24.1%
Unweighted Frequency 996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Weighted Frequency 996 490 506 280 251 273 192 232 274 133 89 208 61
If the provincial election were held today with the following party leaders,
which party would you vote for? SCENARIO 5 - MITZIE HUNTER
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 20.9% 28.2% 13.8% 19.2% 22.3% 24.6% 16.2% 20.2% 22.5% 21.3% 21.7% 19% 20.5%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
24.7% 22.5% 26.8% 31.1% 22.5% 22% 22.1% 26.2% 20.9% 29.1% 29% 25.9% 15.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by Mitzie
28% 24.2% 31.7% 27% 28.7% 28.6% 27.8% 28.2% 30.6% 26.6% 22% 27.4% 29.6%
Hunter
Greens led by Mike
12.5% 11.6% 13.5% 15.5% 11.9% 9.3% 13.7% 12.4% 12% 6.6% 11.8% 18.8% 8.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.8% 1.6% 2% 1.7% 3.2% 1.1% 1% 4.2% 1.8% - 2.6% 0.4% -
Undecided 12.1% 12% 12.2% 5.5% 11.4% 14.4% 19.2% 8.8% 12.1% 16.4% 12.9% 8.6% 26.1%
Unweighted Frequency 996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Weighted Frequency 996 490 506 280 251 273 192 232 274 133 89 208 61
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable Opinion 19.9% 25.7% 14.2% 19.8% 21.6% 22.6% 13.7% 18% 22.6% 19.5% 24.7% 15.5% 23%
Unfavourable
73.4% 67.4% 79.3% 72.3% 73.7% 70.7% 78.5% 76.9% 70.8% 74.7% 67.4% 73.7% 77%
Opinion
Not familiar with
2.5% 3% 2% 4.7% 2.2% 1% 1.9% 1.8% 2.7% 1.5% 2.3% 4.5% -
Doug Ford
Not Sure 4.2% 3.9% 4.5% 3.2% 2.5% 5.7% 5.8% 3.3% 3.8% 4.4% 5.5% 6.4% -
Unweighted
996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Frequency
Weighted
996 490 506 280 251 273 192 232 274 133 89 208 61
Frequency
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.The survey that
dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following regions: Toronto (also
known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), South Central
Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided
in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and
region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.09%, Females: +/- 4.77%, 18-
34 age group: +/- 7.15%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.33%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.5%, 65+ age group:
+/- 6.19%, Toronto: +/- 6.79%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 5.73%, South Central Ontario: +/- 8.66%,
Southwestern Ontario: +/- 6.95%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 8.4%, Northern Ontario: +/- 17.32%
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.