Food Security in Malaysia Challenges and Opportunities For Malaysia of Present and in 2050 For Maintaining Foods Security

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Food Security in Malaysia Challenges and Opportunities for Malaysia of Present

and in 2050 for maintaining foods security
Thesis · April 2013

DOI: 10.13140/2.1.2707.7923
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Food Security in Malaysia
Challenges and Opportunities for Malaysia of Present and in
2050 for maintaining foods security
Bryan Paul
Table of Contents
Introduction ....................................................................................................................................2
Demand of foods in Malaysia ........................................................................................................4
1. Abstract ..................................................................................................................................4
2. Introduction ............................................................................................................................4
3. Social Background .................................................................................................................5
3.1 Population.........................................................................................................................5
3.2 Household Income............................................................................................................6
3.3 Dietary ..............................................................................................................................7
4. Projection ...............................................................................................................................8
5. Discussion ..............................................................................................................................9
Supply of foods in Malaysia ........................................................................................................12

1. Abstract ................................................................................................................................12
2. Introduction ..........................................................................................................................12
3. Self-Sufficiency Level (SSL) ...............................................................................................13
4. Price Policy ..........................................................................................................................15
5. Import and Export ................................................................................................................15
6. Agriculture Perspective ........................................................................................................16
6.1 Land usage, irrigation and climate impact .....................................................................16
6.2 Introduction ....................................................................................................................18
7. Discussion ............................................................................................................................20
Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................24
References .....................................................................................................................................26
Appendix .............................................................................................................................. [1]-[24]
1
bpaul@ualberta.ca 2013©
Introduction
With the overgrowing population in the world today, food security can become an
important issue to deal with not only by international organisations but also governments across
the globe. Every country is basically fighting to provide continuous supply of foods to match
every demands and this seems to be a big struggle especially in currently develop and poorer
nations. Questions are, are these countries able to match foods supply with every increase in
demand and if so, for how long? These questions were first asked by a British economist named
Thomas Malthus in his publication entitled An Essay on the Principle of Population.1 He
predicted that after certain period of time, our food supply, projected using an increaseing linear
graph, will be unable to match the population increase that grow exponentially over time2. This
idea back in the late 1700 seems probable but it does not consider outliers such as climate
change, wars, advancement in technologies and many other more. In fact, we observed that
Malthus’ theory was technically unreliable as the current world growth population do not grow
exponentially and foods are constantly supplied to match every demand.3
Some government agencies usually give updates on the condition of the food security
relative of commodities to the population almost annually and most of them are in form of
electronic copies that can be obtained freely from any of the agencies websites. However, most
of the reports published project the outcome of food security only to the true population of the
country itself and did not include outside population such as immigrants, refugees and stateless
person as one of the key factors in determining national food security. This situation provides a
gap of uncertainty whether input of outside population can shift the food security of a country if
they are to be included within the study.
In this particular case study, the interest lies in observing the prospect of foods security in
term of rice as the staple food in a currently developing nation called Malaysia of present day
and into the future until 2050. Malaysia to begin with is situated in the Southeast Asia region
bordering herself with countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Brunei and the
Philippines4. With temperature average of 25 , Malaysia has a tropical climate that is favorable
1
Malthus, T., 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population. Electronic Scholarly Publishing Projects. London
2
Abramitzky R., Braggion F., 2004. Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians Theories. Stanford University.
3
Abramitzky R., Braggion F., 2004. Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians Theories. Stanford University.
4
Central Intelligence Agency, 2011. The World Factbook. USA.
2
to the development of foods industries all year round.5 In term of agriculture, Malaysia is one of
the largest producers of palm oil alongside Indonesia and Thailand with a production of
18,500,000 Metric Tonnes (MT) in 2012.6 The country is currently ranked as an upper middle
income country by the World Bank with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USD287.9 billion
in 20117. The population size in Malaysia has just reached over 29 million people8 in 2012
excluding outside population.
The main objectives are to observe the challenges faced by this country in feeding and
providing rice for the growing number of her population and what opportunities does this
country have in overcoming these challenges? Rice is an important commodity in Malaysia
herself and is technically protected through price control, subsidies, tariffs and buffer stock.9 The
reason why Malaysia is chosen compare to other bordering countries is due to the fact that
Malaysia has among the highest percentage of outside population as comparative to its
neighbours with an estimated population of over 2.3 million in which 1.3 million are illegal in
201110. Eventually these questions provide a basis on what we can study on for the relationship
between foods with a person namely Malaysians while detailing possible outlier such as outside
population influence in Malaysia as external factor. As discussed, they are one of the key factor
in addressing the public especially Malaysians about their own foods security of rice and its
future as this population will directly act as players in buying rice commodities in the country
alongside Malaysians themselves.
The finding is hope to determine how Malaysians are able prepare for this kind of
challenges and what initiatives are currently being develop in Malaysia to address this issue.
Technically, this study will touch the areas vital for Malaysia rice security such as rice
sufficiency level (SSL), research and development for rice production, household income and the
relationship with rice consumption, dietary and agriculture technological advancement in rice
based commodities.
5
6
United States Department of Agriculture, 2012. Palm Oil Production by Countries.
7
The World Bank, 2011. Data: Malaysia.
8
FAO Statistic. 2012. Population Estimation and Projection.
9
Vengedasalam, D., Harris & M., McAulay, G., 2011. Malaysian Rice Trade and Government Interventions.
10
Immigration Department Malaysia, 2012. Statistical amount of legal and illegal immigrant workers recorded under 6P
programs until 31 August 2011.
3
Demand
1. Abstract
Demand of rice in Malaysia has been increasing throughout the years and although there
is volatility in the growth rate of rice consumption over the past 20 years11, rice remain essential
for the basic everyday dietary of Malaysians. In this section, we will explore and investigate the
roots for demand of rice in Malaysia as well interpreting the significance of this demand towards
the level of food security in Malaysia.
Our objective is to see the relationship between the social background of Malaysians of
her population size, income and dietary towards the demand of rice for everyday consumption.
Basically, these are the factors that normally influence the demand curve in any commodities of
any country studied. We will also calculate the projection of rice demand in Malaysia up until
2050 and preferably interpret the outcome of projection and its implication towards the
Malaysian government in ensuring strong level of food security.
2. Introduction
Malaysia rice industry is heavily regulated for her social, economic and political
sensitivity.12 Malaysia to begin with is one of the biggest consumers of milled rice as a staple
food in which the country is currently ranked at number 20 with 2,819,000 MT consumption
right after Sri Lanka in 201213. Rice contributes to Malaysia’s GDP by less than one percent14
and eventhough it seems small, it is a golden commodity crucial for the everyday dietary of
Malaysians. Trend in the rice consumption by Malaysians are shown in Figures 1 and 2 and the
data are displayed over the period of 20 years starting 1992 to 2012.15
According to the data in the Household Expenditure Survey 2004/2005, the average
elasticity of Malaysians’ rice demand stand at 0.7104 followed by other fiber based commodities
such as bread and cereal at 0.5087. 16 However, local economists predicted that as Malaysian
11
United States Department of Agriculture, 2012. Malaysia Milled Rice Domestic Consumption by Year.
12
Ramli et al., 2012. Impact of Price Support Policy on Malaysian Rice Industry.
13
United States Department of Agriculture, 2012. Malaysia Milled Rice Domestic Consumption by Year
14
Vengedasalam, D., Harris, M., McAulay, G., 2011. Malaysian Rice Trade and Government Intervention.
15
16
Tey et al., 2008. Demand Analyses of Rice in Malaysia.
4
household income increases in the future, the demand for rice based commodity will decreases
and are substitute with wheat and protein based commodity such as meat.17
Based on Figure 1 attached to the appendix, for the past 20 years, we can see that the
consumption of rice keep on increasing in Malaysia18 and using this given data, we can predict
that the consumption will continue to grow up until 2050. However, for growth rate (Figure 1;
Figure 3), it is observed that the percentages of rice consumption are unstable with frequent dip
and rise over the period of 20 years which may signal the prediction that Malaysians may have
changed their dietary preferences.
We then can questioned, what are the factors influencing the instability for rice growth
rate and are there any externality involved in pushing the need for more rice in Malaysia. Using
these questions as guidelines, we then can further study the relationship between these questions
with respect of socio-economic background of Malaysians.
3. Social Background
3.1 Population
As previously stated, in 2012, the population within Malaysia is estimated to be around 29
million people.19 Out of this 29 million people, approximately 26.1 million live in urban areas
and about 7.7 million other live in rural areas.20 Based on Figure 4, from 1992 to 2012, the
population in Malaysia appear to have increasing linearly and based on assumption, the trend
could continue to increase further until 2050. Evidently enough, based on Figure 5 provided by
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the population in Malaysia projected continue to
grow linearly and is expected to reach approximately 43 million people in 2050. In term of
agriculture population in 2012, currently there are 3,243,000 people who are actively involved in
producing agriculture commodities and out of this, 1,557,000 people are economically active.21
As for immigrant population, it is estimated that in 2011, there are 2.3 million people registered
in the immigration database and out of those number, 1.3 million are illegal.22 Majority of the
immigrants come from neighbouring countries such as Indonesia and Philippines and others are
17
18
19
FAO Stat. Population Estimation and Projection 2012
20
21
22
Department of Immigration Malaysia, 2013. Statistical amount of legal and illegal immigrant workers recorded under 6P
5
from countries such as Bangladesh, China, Vietnam and Laos23. However, according to the
United Nation Refugees Agency (UNHCR), in early 2012, Malaysia has a reported 4 million
immigrants in the country and out of those number, 2 millions are undocumented and illegal.24
This is an increase of 41.2% of total immigrant population in 2011. In addition, Malaysia also
holds refugees and stateless person within the country herself that come from neighbouring
countries seeking asylum within Malaysia sovereignty with a combined population of 217,618
people in 2012.25 This population of refugees and stateless person however, is expected to
increase where the UNHCR estimates that by the end of 2013, the population will go up to
234,920 people, an increment by 7.95%.26
3.2 Household Income

The relationship between diet changes with respect of changes in economic development
and per capita incomes was well versed, studied and documented by economists regardless of
any countries27. Tey et al. (2008) argues that as Malaysians per capita income increases from low
levels after independence, it was observed that there was a rise in rice consumption to counteract
the malnutrition associated with the poverty. This was apparently plausible based on the graph
projected in Figure 2 where the rice consumption in Malaysia appear to keep increasing in trend
over the example period of 20 years.
In Figure 6, up till 2009, Malaysia’s household incomes have been increasing steadily
with an income mean of Ringgit Malaysia (RM)4,025 and growth rate of 5.5%. Figure 7, on the
other hand, shows that the amount of poor and hard-core poor population in Malaysia of 3.8%
and 0.7% respectively in 2009. The bar graph appears to be decreasing over the period of time
and this is likely subjected to the government intervention in which under every national
development plans, it is an objective for Malaysia to eradicate the status of poor people in the
country in order to grab a well-develop nation status by 2020.28 This plan is normally carried out
23
Department of Immigration Malaysia, 2013. Statistical amount of legal and illegal immigrant workers recorded under 6P
24
The UN Refugee Agency, 2013. 2013 UNHCR Country Operation Profile: Malaysia.
25
The UN Refugee Agency,2013. 2013 UNHCR Country Operation Profile: Malaysia.
26
The UN Refugee Agency, 2013. 2013 UNHCR Country Operation Profile: Malaysia.
27
28
Economic Planning Unit, 2004. Development Planning in Malaysia.
6
either by giving grants to start small businesses or assistance in form of special bursaries or
incentives to the poor.29
However, the income stated varies within states in Malaysia and most data available only
mentioned the well-being of the West Malaysians rather than East Malaysians. The disparity is
seldom documented and Habibulah et al. (2012) states that with persistently wide gap between
rich and poor states, it is important to make economic policy to start up the catch-up processes
between these states.
3.3 Dietary
Norimah et al. (2008) argues that due to the uprising of urbanization and income in
Malaysia, many Malaysians opt for another sources of carbohydrates and fiber substitutes such
as wheat and bread as staple food.30 Tey et al. (2008) sustain the finding in which they found that
as the per capita increases to a higher level in Malaysia the role of rice as the staple food begin to
decrease and as depicted in Figure 8, the wheat consumption had surpassed the role of rice in
year 2002. As many as 6,742 subjects were interviewed for the studies and it is found that 97%
of the whole population consume rice twice daily.31 The subjects consist of 3,274 men and 3,468
women from various states in Malaysia possessing key characteristics that include within age 18
to 60 years education level, strata and household income as depicted in Figure 9 in the appendix.
In average, the study observed that there are almost no difference between the pattern of
rice consumption among population in both urban and rural area as well between men and
women.32 Tee (1999), however, argues that the processes of urbanization and industrialisation
had shift the local dietary pattern into preference of westernised food consumption. It is observed
that in the urban area, the lifestyles are more hectic and people opt to choose fast and ready-to-
cook meals instead.33 Despite this observation, rice still plays an important role in Malaysians
dietary especially for the lower income population in which rice is comparatively cheaper rather
than wheat, bread and cereals substitutes.
29
Economic Planning Unit, 2004. Development Planning in Malaysia.
30
Norimah et al. (2008). Food Consumption Patterns: Finding from the Malaysian Adult Nutrition Survey.
31
32
33
Norimah et al. (2008). Food Consumption Patterns: Finding from the Malaysian Adult Nutrition Survey; Tee Es., 1999.
Nutrition of Malaysians: Where are we heading?
7
4. Projection
Demand of rice in Malaysia is expected to increase in years to come and as from what
observed in previous sub-sections, rice commodity is deemed important in providing basic
dietary for all Malaysians regardless of age, income and strata. Due to the expected increment,
the government and relevant agencies need to know how much of demand are made by the
public so that they will be able to prepare in supplying the rice to meet the said demand. The
projection is calculated until 2050. We use a formula called the Compound Interest Function34 to
calculate the compound growth rate of GDP and the elasticity of rice demand with respect of
population growth and GDP. All calculations presented are expressed in percentage and are
shown below.
Demand Projection of rice until 2050:

a. GDP growth (%) average for the past 5 years. Years availability from 2007-201135:
4.3%
b. Population growth rate (%) average for past 5 years. Years availability from 2007-201136:
1.68%
c. Compound growth rate of GDP:
i. Formula:
ii. Substitute in number from (a) divide with 100 to obtain decimal number multiply
with years from 2011 till 2050
iii. Change to percentage back by multiplying by 100%.
d. Same formula and procedure as (c) for population growth rate:

i. ;convert to percentage
e. Elasticity demand of rice (projection) till 2050
i. Demand elasticity of rice based on 2005 data37: 0.7104
ii. Formula:
34
Anders, S., 2013. How to Project Demand to 2050.
35
Central Intelligence Agency, 2011. The World Factbook. USA..
36
37
Tey et al., 2008. Demand Analyses of Rice in Malaysia. MPRA
8
( ) ( ( ))
iii. Substitute in all value:
( ) ( ( ))
iv. Change to percentage by multiplying by 100%.
Based on the calculation above, by 2050 the demand of rice in Malaysia will soar by an
estimation of 824.5%. It is a tremendous amount of demand for rice and although the value
seems huge, the data presented maybe plausible as the population growth in Malaysia continue to
rise as projected by FAO and is expected to reach over 43 million in 2050. We also earlier
present an assumption based on Figure 2 that the rice consumption will continue to increase and
based on the value given, we might be right on the assumption.
5. Discussion
Earlier in the abstract sub-section, we asked what are the factors influencing the
instability of rice growth rate and what externality should be included in pushing the need for
more rice in Malaysia. Based on the data presented so far, we know that the socio-economic
factors of Malaysians will mostly influence this changes and in this section we will discuss those
questions asked and probably provide some answers to those questions themselves.
In the population sub-section, we see that the population of Malaysia is much smaller
compare to Canada which stands at 34,880,000 people in 2012.38 However when we are to
include the population of immigrants and refugees in Malaysia, the whole population can soars
up to 33 million, almost reaching the same population of those in Canada. Given that the size of
Malaysia is much smaller than Canada, this situation may cause overcrowding in the nation and
the government may be required to produce more output of rice to settle the demand input within
the country. This particular basis will be discussed in the next section concerning supply of rice.
For agriculture populace, it is discussed that out of 3 million people who are active in the
agriculture, only 1.5 million are economically active in it and out of this 1.5 million, 1.2 million
are male while the rest compose of female.39 Here, we can see that the female involvements in
38
Statistic Canada, 2013. Population by year, by Province and Territories 2013.
39
FAO Stat. Population Projection and Estimation 2012.
9
the agriculture sectors are still low compare to their counterpart which is almost five times larger.
According to the World Bank economic report in 2012, the possibility of introducing more
women to the workforce can increase Malaysia per capita output by 23% thus eradicate more
poor population statuses and strengthen the country food security.40 It may be beneficial in which
women tend to be more productive in their works as compare to their male counterpart.
Next, most literatures obtained or produced did not take into account of populace outside
the boundaries of what is called the “Malaysians population” and this normally composes of
those who enter and residing in the country either as illegal immigrants, refugees and stateless
person. This outside population itself pose new boundaries on how the government knows who
to provide the rice with and how they can supply the need even with the existence of outside
population such as these in addition to documented populace within Malaysia. For many years
the Malaysian government have tried to eradicate the number of illegal immigrants and refugees
in the country by sending them back to their original countries or another destination but the
effort seems pointless as more keep coming into the country by the boarders.
Vengedasalam, Harris and McAulay (2011) state that Malaysian government even before
the independence had already lay their hands on the rice market, in which the government
policies based on rice had mainly focuses on the eradication of poverty and sectorial growth.
Based on the figures presented in the appendix, it seems that the policies implemented had done
it purpose well since the level of poor and hard-core population seems to be decreasing each
year. Fatimah and Mohd. Ghazali (1990) regards the situation as essential because those who are
in the poverty line mostly work as paddy farmers in Malaysia and the government take this rather
seriously when eradicating poor status among the population.
Parallel to the eradication of poor statuses in Malaysia, we can see that the income of an
average Malaysians had increased over the years as depicted by Figure 6 in which a person earns
average about RM4,025 per month. Due to this shift, we can also see that the dietary preference
have changed in the average Malaysians especially those who live in the urban areas where Tan
(1990) points that the urban populations prefer fast and ready-made food in their dietary.
However, what Norimah et al. (2008) found in their national survey tell a different point of view
in which the Malaysians still prefers eating rice on a daily basis and this include eating them
40 The World Bank , 2012. (Key Findings) Malaysia Economic Monitor, November 2012: Unlocking Women's Potential.
10
twice a day. The finding seems to oppose Tan’s idea in the changed of preference and this also
oppose the earlier assumption provided by Norimah et al. in earlier sub-section of dietary where
they first thought that as urbanization and industrialization take place in Malaysia, the
Malaysians opt to choose other substitute for rice such as wheat and bread. On Figure 10, it is
shown that the percentage prevalence of rice consumption between the urban population and the
rural population shows no difference and rice still being eaten at a high rate of 96.7% in the
urban areas and 97.8% in the rural areas.
For projection analyses, it is found out the demand required by Malaysians in 2050 stands
at 824.5% and this is one huge increment over the next 38 years to come. Despite the huge
number, the projection somewhat provide a foundation in which the Malaysian government can
be prepared as for what to come and implement new government policies on which they can
manage their sources and funding in order to meet the demand later on. In related issues, the
huge demand rise is also due to the huge GDP growth which stands at 534.9% in 2050. This
increase in GDP may boost Malaysia status into develop nation in par with her neighbour such as
Singapore, depending on how the market flow in the next 38 years. As for population projection,
the number of people in Malaysia is to increase by 92.6% and this is quite similar to the
projection by FAO in which the population is almost double over the next 38 years. It is shown
that the per capita income of average Malaysia will also increase due to high GDP projection and
their demand for rice will follow the increment with demand projection. It somewhat potrays that
although the income increase, the population will not stranded far from their root of having rice
as their staple food and this is proven by the huge percentage demand of rice in 2050. We also
able to point that our assumptions may be right as the consumption pattern on Malaysian in rice
will continue to grow upwards as depicted by Figure 2 for years to come given that there are no
market volatility in rice (not probable). We then can now investigate how the government can
supply this need and what policies implementations are currently being develop in Malaysia for
this sole purpose.
11
Supply
1. Abstract
In the previous section we have seen the patterns of demand in Malaysia for rice as well as
the projection calculation until 2050. In this particular section we will examine the other side of
the whole case study which is the supply of rice in Malaysia. Basically, the questions asked are
almost identical as those in the demand discussion side on how the government will be able to
provide the continuous supply or rice as demanded and what initiatives are currently being
developed in Malaysia for this sole purposes.
Our main objectives are to investigate several main areas which may be important for the
study such as the self-sufficiency level (SSL) of rice in Malaysia, production rate, price policies
for rice, agriculture perspectives with respect of land usage, modernisation and researches and
developments (R&D) of rice and import and export of rice with respect of demand by the
population.
2. Introduction
Malaysia rice productions in 2012 are estimated at 1,700,000MT and this is an increase
by 0.59% from 2011 rice productions.41 Based on Figure 11 and 12, the milled rice production in
Malaysia is increasing for the past 20 years although with several volatility during the economic
crisis in 1996 to 1998 and in 2001, 2004 and 2006 respectively. In term of growth rate, the
production of milled rice as depicted by Figure 13 seems to decrease after year 2007 till 2012
and one possible reason for this outcome is that the production of rice may be substitute with
other economically driven agriculture commodity such as palm oil.
Previously, it is mentioned that the rice’s price in Malaysia is heavily protected through
various means of methods such as subsidies, price controls, tariffs especially towards import and
a buffer stock.42 The functionality of a buffer stock here is to protect the rice’s price during the
volatility of world market price for rice. As Malaysia do not have a comparative advantages to
the rice market, Malaysia shield herself from the call of liberalisation by World Trade
Organisation (WTO) for the intended market due to the country strong grip in protecting food
41
United States Department of Agriculture, 2012. Malaysia Milled Rice Production by Year.
42
Vengedasalam, D., Harris, M., & McAulay, G., 2011. Malaysian Rice Trade and Governments Intervention.
12
security level for its population43. In addition, the government also creates this entire protection
gate for Malaysia in order to have a protected level of rice production and sufficiency.44 Three
objectives were outlined in which Malaysia wants to attain a fairly reasonable production rate of
rice, to increase the income of farmers that grow rice and to ensure stable and quality prices of
rice to the consumers.45 Most of the subsidies prices are for fertilizers in which most rice farmers
are dependent of.46 However, the implementation of this policies itself have caused the
government to carry big financial burden as the allocation for the policies alone cost RM1.74
billion (~USD560.66 million) of consumers and taxpayer money in 2009.47
Apart from that, it is also seen that the arable lands use for rice production have been
decreasing over the years and according to Mohamed Arshad et al. (2011), the land size for rice
commodity had shrunk from 716,873 hectares (ha) in 1980 to 656,602 ha in 2008. The changes
made is significant as in 28 years, the land for rice production had decreased by 60,271 ha (-
8.41%). What causes the changes and how it impacts the production rate will be discuss later on
in the sub-section under agriculture perspective.
As market progress with year, Malaysia will soon has to compel to change the current
policies implemented especially towards the protection gate policy in order to be in-flow with the
world market changes. Continuation of these policies may lead to severe effect towards the
economic growth the country and may cause the nation its status of high income developing
country. As discussed, Malaysia has also reduced the land availability for rice production,
impose burden policies to protect rice security and apparently, the government has also reduced
the allocation for R&D towards rice commodity.48 We will further discuss how this will affect
the rice supply in Malaysia and what efforts are currently ongoing to address these issues.
3. Self-sufficiency level (SSL) of rice.

Self-sufficiency level (SSL) plays an important role when it comes to discussing the
issues of food security in a country. Right after the crisis of rice market in 2008, the Malaysian
43
Mohamed Arshad, F., Alias, E., Mohd Noh, K., & Muhammad Tasrif, 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in
Malaysia.
44
Mohamed Arshad et al., 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia.
45
Mohamed Arshad et al.2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia.
46
Najim, M., Lee, T., Haque, M., & Esham, M., 2007. Sustainability of Rice Production: A Malaysian Perspective.
47
Vengedasalam, D., Harris, M., & McAulay, G.,, 2011; Mohammed Arshad et al., 2011.
48
Mohamed Arshad et al. 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia.
13
government had took a preventive step and increase their stockpile of rice from 92,000MT to
292,000MT, an increment by 217.4% hence had able to upgrade their SSL in rice from 72% in
2007 to 73% in 2008.49,50 Figure 14 in the appendix shows the historical data of SSL in rice over
the period of 18 years starting 1990 and from the figure obtained it was observed that level of
rice sufficiency have the average around 72.5%. According to Tey et al. (2008), the government
plans to increase the SSL of rice to 90% in 2010 but with historical data of showing no more
than 80% SSL, it may be difficult to achieve such goal in such short period of time. The policies
implemented of controlling the national rice market may hinder the goal itself as lowering the
rice price and increasing farmer income may not necessarily a best mix to increase the SSL level
of rice.51
Mohamed Arshad et al. (2011) have simulated few scenarios in which how certain factors
if they were to be added or eliminate into current policies could impact the SSL of rice in the
future. The scenario is then used to project the SSL of rice from 2012 until 2050. The table and
projection graph are as shown in Figure 15 and 16 respectively in the appendix section. The
control experiment in this study is Scenario 1 (the base run) and Scenario 2-6 are the randomised
observation if Malaysia would liberalise her rice market.52
From Figure 16, it is observed that the SSL of rice in Malaysia towards 2050 seems not
be able to reach 90% goal as the government expected for 2010. Despite different scenarios
simulated for the given purposes, the SSL will never reach more than 90% with highest being
probably at 85%. Scenario 6 which is changes in whole structure seem to be an interesting factor
to consider as the yield of the scenario had been able to ensure the SSL of rice in Malaysia above
80% level for the next 38 years to come. According to Mohamed Arshad et al. (2011), scenario 6
is designed into a model in which the desired outcome of rice productivity is influence with the
desired rice production output and harvesting area. Another interesting observation is that despite
Malaysia entering her rice market for liberalisation; it will have no effect on the SSL as it is
today.
49
50
Mohamed Arshad et al., 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia
51
Chern, W.S., 2000. Assessment of Demand-Side Factors Affecting Global Food Security.
52
Mohamed Arshad et al., 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia
14
4. Price Policy
Malaysia has one of the most unique price policies that favour the rice industry for years.
Due to her rice economies instability at most of the time, Malaysia impose a very strict
protection in favour of her own rice industries by introducing billion ringgit worth of subsidies,
price controls, high import tariff and buffer stock.53 These policies are deemed as expensive and
further implementation into the future without amending the policies to match current world
market could hurt the national economy in the long run. Subsidies here are normally given to
reduce the purchase of fertilizers by the farmers as well for diesel and other machineries products
which are deemed essential to the rice industies.54 On the other hand, price control, import tariff
and buffer stocks are used to lower the price of local rice, protecting domestic rice industries as
well for food security so that Malaysians can buy inexpensive rice in which targeted strata is the
populace that are in poor and hard-core poor margin.55
In 2012, Ramli et al. conducted a simulation in which they discuss the possibilities if the
government suddenly decides to retract all the price policy for rice industry. They found out that
the decision will put the productivity of rice in danger as the production cannot be sustain
without the given current price policy. Due to the result of the study, they suggest an alternative
policy mechanisms to the government in which they argue that an increase in yield production of
rice can be done through efficient management strategy, use of hybrid rice and encourage the
farmers to use extra fertilizers. These factors is expected to produce rice yield up to 10MT per ha
and in the long run could surpasses the consumption growth and will be able to increase the SSL
in rice. 56
5. Import and Export of Rice in Malaysia
Previously, we asked the question on whether Malaysia relies on the dependency of import
rice for her own supply chain. Based on the SSL, we can argue that Malaysia does need to rely
on import rice as the SSL of rice does not reach 100%. In Figure 22, it is observed that Malaysia
import almost half of the value of rice produce within the country and exports only 1000MT
53
54
Ramli et al., 2012. Impact of Price Support Policy on Malaysia Rice Industry.
55
56
15
worth of local rice. As Malaysia consumes on average 80kg of rice a year per person, the supply
currently produced by local market is insufficient and Malaysia has to import rice from the
neighbouring countries to satisfy the amount consumed.57 This however did not take into account
of the outside population that resides within the country as additional factor for the rice supply
insufficiency. Assuming that the populace is clump together (both true and outside population), it
is observed that the imports of rice in Malaysia on 2013 seen Vietnam as the main leading
importer, followed by Thailand and other countries including United States whom are mainly
importing calrose rice for the consumption of expatriate within the country. Myanmar on the
other hand had double their rice import into Malaysia and soon enough, the country may become
one of the leading major importer into the country.58
In Figure 23, the index for rice import had increased from February 2012 to February 2013
by 3.9%. This shows that Malaysia dependency on imported rice continues to increase despite
the efforts they made towards increasing the local rice productions industry. Ramli et al. (2012)
argue that since there is a gap between the supply and demand of rice in Malaysia, the gap need
to be close and rice has to be imported from other countries with surpluses to close the gap.
Figure 24 depicted the relationship between rice productions (blue line), total consumption (red
line), import (green line) and SSL (purple line). It is observed that as year’s progresses from
2011 to 2050, the gap between rice total consumption and rice productions become wider. In the
meantime, the SSL of rice begin to decreases while the dependency on import rice increases.
6. Agricultural Perspective of Rice

6.1 Land usage, irrigation and climate impact
Arable land definition by FAO is lands suitable for agriculture production and fertile to be
used either for production of permanent crops, temporary crops and many other more with
exclusion of abandoned land due to cultivation shifting.59 The availability of these lands within a
territory underlines their importance as one of the factors impacting the strength of agriculture
sectors in which use to support the production of a commodity crucial to its population. Almost
all of the rice farmers in Malaysia use these lands for their paddy crops and as mentioned in the
57
Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2008. Industry: Production and Import of Rice in Malaysia by 2003-2008.
58
Wahab, 2013. Malaysia: Grain and Feed Annual 2013.
59
FAO Statistic Division. Concepts and Definitions: Glossary Lists.
16
introduction section, on 2008, the sizes for rice harvesting areas stand at 656,602 ha which been
decreasing over the previous years.60The loss of lands used for rice production should be an
alarming situation if they are to continue to be shed away as it will pose a doubt whether the
country itself can holds on to the current 73% SSL.
A journal article published by Ramli et al. (2012) explore this situation and based on their
findings, in 2009, the land used for paddy crop had increased to 674,928 ha with distribution of
76% in Peninsular Malaysia and the rest in East Malaysia. With this sudden increase, the public
may question what influences the decision and based on the explanation provided in the journal
article, it may be due to the instability of rice market in 2008.61 However, back in 2008, although
the land use for rice production decrease, there was surge increment in the average productivity
of rice from 2.9 tonnes to 3.6 tonnes per ha and this increment is due to the variety of
improvement and infrastructural supports by the government.62 In Figure 17, the line graph
represents the productivity of rice and the land areas are represented by the bar graph. Right after
year 2000, it is observed that the land areas started to decrease slowly but in the same time, it is
also observed that the productivity increases linearly with exception in the year 2006 where the
productivity decrease but gained it momentum again around year 2007.
In term of irrigation, Malaysia has one of the highly develop irrigation system in Southeast
Asia that channelled water for agriculture usage of different agriculture commodities. This
system has helps in improving the welfare of approximately 14300 farmers in Malaysia.63 Due to
the importance of this system, a specialise department has been established for this purpose and
since the establishment in 1932, the department manage to increase the area covered with
irrigation system for rice production in which by 1960, Malaysia had 200,000 ha of irrigated
land.64 Farmers are required to pay minimum amount of water consumption bill which cost
minimum of RM10 (~USD3.00) to RM15 (~USD6.00) per hectare of land irrigated depending
on agriculture commodities produce.65 This takes approximately 10% to 12% of the operation
cost and the government did not impose higher fees because of the farmers involved in this kind
of agricultural productivity are mostly poor.66 In Figure 18, the table presented shows the area
60
61
Ramli, et al., 2012. Impact of Price Support Policy on Malaysia Rice Industry.
62
63
Toriman, M.E., & Mokhtar, M., 2012. Irrigation: Types, Sources and Problems in Malaysia.
64
65
66
17
covered by irrigated water system and this was taken in the year 1993. Based on the increment
portray by the table itself as compare to 1960 value, we may assume that in present time the area
covered may increase by another 200,000 ha.
Malaysia as stated is a tropical rainforest country situated at the equator in Southeast Asia
region. Annually, the country received an average rainfall of 2500mm and this mainly due by the
monsoons from the Southern and Northern part of Malaysia.67 Alam et al. (2011) argues that
climatic situations have changing rapidly in Malaysia and is meddling with the current
agriculture production. Based on the United Nations Development Project, Malaysia climatic
change may be due to the increase of greenhouse gas especially carbon dioxide (CO2) emission,
where in 2004 the emission had increased tremendously by 221% from year 1990.68 The effects
of this environmental change eventually caused a projected rise in temperature from 0.3 to
4.5 , a rise in sea level of 95cm over the period of hundred years as well as fluctuation in
rainfall by .69 Shift in climate may impact the production level of crops in a country and if
these changes are likely to occur, Malaysia may find itself struggling in supplying the demand of
rice which assumed to increase tremendously by 2050. Further elaboration in the report tells the
country in which it is estimated that the projected level of climatic changes will cause the yield
of rice production to fall by 0.4%.70
6.2 Technological Modernisation, Research and Development (R&D) and Malaysia’s

Dynamic System Model for Rice industry.
Technology availability is one of the main important subjects when it comes to the
productivity efficiency in agricultural industry. In Malaysia, the likes of tractors, grinders,
packaging machines, systematic water systems and many more are crucial for rice production to
grow and for farmers to continuously supply the rice out in market. Najim et al. (2007) argues
that the productivity of rice manufacturing can only be speed up if a proper application of proper
machineries is used for harvesting paddy crop. In the 1960 and mid-1970, the government had
67
68
Alam, M., Siwar, C., Murad, M.W., & Toriman M.E., 2011. Farm Level Assessment of Climate Change, Agriculture and Food
security Issues in Malaysia.
69
Alam et al., 2011. Farm Level Assessment of Climate Change, Agriculture and Food security Issues in Malaysia.
70
18
invested in the farm infrastructure and water resources for rice production which required
tractors for preparing the land and lorries to transport the harvest.71 When the country enter
industrialisation sectors, labours help in agriculture started to decrease and due to this effect, the
government had pushed for all labour-intensive field to be fully mechanised.72 Up until today,
most of the country main paddy fields are mostly operated using machineries with low labour
cost. Small farmers on the other hand, use relatively less machineries as the land size for rice
production is smaller. In 1990s, the government had improved the situation by enhancing the
road condition, increase drainage densities and soil capacities and more efficient machine
operations for rice industry.73
Currently, Malaysia has several main institutes for rice researches with two having a broader
scope of agriculture researches namely MARDI (Malaysian Agriculture Research and
Development Institute) and FAMA (Federal Agriculture and Marketing Authority) with one
reserve for rice commodity only, BERNAS (National Paddy and Rice Board) while other
compose of several local universities and private organisations.74 Recently, the allocation for
R&D in rice has become limited due to the possibility that the allocation had been used for more
economically driven agriculture commodity such as palm oil. Wong et al. (2010) state that the
FAO has predicts an improvement in R&D funding, innovation and policies can be beneficial in
term of producing output as much as 70%. Mohamed Arshad et al. (2011), on the other hand,
argue that the continuous support for rice R&D is crucial if we are to produce higher yield of rice
varieties. In Figure 19 and 20, it is observed that as there are no curfews of R&D allocation for
rice, the production rate of rice is expected to increase until the year 2050 and this might
strengthen the supply level of rice in Malaysia and strengthen the food security based on this
staple commodity. Mohd. Ariff (2012) explained that with support by R&D grants, the rice yield
can be increased from 15% to 25% with introduction of hybrid paddy. MARDI has so far
produces 35 varieties of rice by using grants allocation in R&D in which some are resistant to
herbicide and can compete with weeds that sometimes grow alongside the paddy itself.75
71
Najim, M. Lee, T., Haque, M., & Esham, M., 2007. Sustainability of Rice Production: A Malaysian Perspective.
72
Najim et al.,2007. Sustainability of Rice Production: A Malaysian Perspective.
73
Najim et al., 2007. Sustainability of Rice Production: A Malaysian Perspective.
74
Malaysia Investment Development Authority, 2013. Research & Development Organisations.
75
Mohd. Ariff, M., 2012. Hybrid Rice An Effort To Reduce Imports.
19
Figure 21 shows the systematic dynamic model of rice industry in Malaysia in which the
country has been following for the past several years. On the right hand side of diagram, we
could observe the factors impacting the supply production of rice and this cycle is called the
economic component of the dynamic system model.76 It starts out within the population box in
which demand and consumption is made, then the cycle continues to trigger the mechanism in
the total consumption box and finally ends up in complicated pathways before the government
could decide on how much rice is available in the rice stock. This is relevant to the case study
because for Malaysia to properly see how much supply they need to produce to the market, first
they need to know how much demand of rice being required by people and how much is being
consumed annually. Then the government or relevant agencies can survey how much stocks they
have to put out in the market and if they do not have enough do they have to rely on import rice
to match the demand?
7. Discussion
In the introduction section, we asked the question on how Malaysia will be able to catch-up
with the demand increment and what policies and improvement have been made to address these
issues. First we have looked into the SSL of rice and the perspective it has with observation of
the current year as well into the future until 2050. At the moment, the SSL of rice stands at 73%
and is expected to either increase or decrease depending on what policies introduced by the
government in intervening the rice industries itself.77 Despite the government of aiming for a
90% SSL, the move seems almost impossible if the current policies for rice industries does not
change and be reviewed annually according to the perspective of the world market. In Figures 15
and 16, we can observe that if a certain policies are to be change by the government, the impact
can be variant with respect of certain scenarios simulation. Scenarios 1,2,3,4 and 5 yield almost
the same output in which we can deduced that eventhough the government decides to give up
one or more of their given policies, the SSL will never 90% as to what they aiming for. The only
way Malaysia can increase the SSL to be above 80% is to change the whole current policies by
76
77
Mohamed Arshad et al., 2011; Vengedasalam, Harris & McAulay, 2008.
20
introducing an effective management system, use of technological improve rice varieties as well
as extra fertilizers for rice field.
Price policy has become an important factor in the rice industries in Malaysia for a very long
time and most farmers are heavily dependent of them when producing rice for the local market.
For more than 50 years, the rice industries in Malaysia is heavily protected due to the concern of
food security for rice in Malaysia especially after the crisis in 2008 which saw the rice supply in
Malaysia is at stake and demands are barely met. Agriculture essentials such as fertilizers, oil for
vehicles, machines, develop irrigation system and many more are heavily subsidies by the
government because they want to increase the production of rice as well to lessen the burden of
local farmers who are mostly poor thus improving their welfare. These investments however do
manage to increase the total production of rice over the course of 50 years implementation and
do in fact benefit the farmers and improving the welfare. Billions of ringgit had been spend for
the given subsidies but if this expenditure continues in the long run, it could hurt the nation
economy and pulled back the country backwards in term of per capita income. In agreement,
Vengedasalam, Harris & McAulay (2011) argues that the barrier created to protect domestic
producers has place a big financial burden to the consumers and taxpayer in order to sustain the
policies created.
Malaysia has been accustoming to import rice due to the fact that there is gap made between
the total consumption and the total production of rice over the past few years. One possible
explanation for this gap is that the consumption made is not only focuses on the Malaysia
population but other as well such as the outside population. In order to close the gap, Malaysia
has to rely on the production of rice from other countries such as Vietnam and Thailand which
are among the two biggest rice importers to Malaysia. Malaysia currently has an import quota for
rice of 700,000 MT per year.78 This quota will has to be changed in the near future as based on
the Figure 24, the demands and the production rate gap will become larger thus more rice need to
be imported into the country to seal the gap and ensure enough supply to meet those demands.
In agricultural perspectives, Malaysia has everything she needs for the development of rice
industries within the nation. The country has a well-developed irrigation system including
infrastructure which enable farmers to maximise their harvest and sell their product to the local
markets. The introduction of the department of irrigation and drainage under the Ministry of
78
21
Agriculture (MoA) has helped to develop irrigated land amounting to 321,696 ha in 1993.79
Apart from that, farmers are among the privileged group in agriculture sectors as they are
required to pay minimum amount of water consumption bill per hectare land they use thus saving
them of having pocketing out large amount of money for operation cost. This is somewhat an
incentive to the farmers as they does not need to bear much cost for the water bill and according
to Toriman & Mokhtar (2012), it has helps more than 14300 farmers out of their money. Land
usage for rice production, on the other hand, has been decreasing for the past few year until 2008
in which the land size was estimated to be around 656,602 ha. However, in 2009, the land sizes
begin to increase again to 674,928 ha and this pose a positive signal for which Malaysia can
utilise to produce more rice for her population. Despite the decrease in land sizes in previous
year, Malaysia has seen a growth in the production of rice of being 2.04 million tonnes produce
in 1980 to 2.35 million tonnes in 2008.80 Change in climate, on the other hand, can influence the
productivity of rice in Malaysia if the issue did not address properly to the public. It is estimated
that per 1 rise in temperature, the rice yield may decrease by approximately 4.6%-6.1% per
hectares and this was the estimation made when the temperature was within an average of 25
within the area of rice growing field.81 Apart from that, changes in amount of rainfall could also
affect the rice production in which it is estimated that 1% increase of rainfall could decrease the
production by 0.12%.82
In the last sub-section we have seen how R&D could change the productivity of rice in
Malaysia as well as the pathways of rice distribution in Malaysia. In recent years, the
government had reduced the allocation for R&D in rice and the decision could influence the
productivity of rice production itself. Little discussions are made regarding this decision and not
many literature provide clear answer for why the government had reduced their allocation for
rice R&D. Possible assumptions which may cause this decision is that the government may want
to focus their attention to a more profitable agriculture economy and other is that the government
might need to transfer the cut and use it to fund the price policy of rice industries. Based on the
Figure 19 in the appendix, if the funding of R&D in rice is increase by the government, the
79
Toriman, M.E., & Mokhtar, M., 2012. Irrigation: Types, Sources and Problems in Malaysia, Irrigation Systems and Practices in
Challenging Environments.
80
Mohammed Arshad et al., 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia.
81
82
22
government themselves can reap what they sow in which it is estimated that the production
output will also increase due to innovation of varieties of rice produce as well as development of
more efficient technologies for given purpose.83 As previously stated by Wong et al. (2010), an
increment in R&D funding will result in an increment of production of rice by 70% provided it
comes with a right policies implementation. The role of BERNAS was not mentioned in earlier
sub-section due to its role of focusing more on the rice sale rather than R&D. BERNAS is the
only sole importer for domestic rice under a duty free rate and the main rice chain supplier in the
country in which it has all the privileges given by the government.84 Based on the Figure 25 in
the appendix, it is observed that BERNAS is responsible for the domestic stockpile of rice and as
argue by Vengedasalam, Harris and McAulay (2011) the stockpile are in existence as insurance
for a sufficient SSL as well as to stabilise the rice price whenever global markets hit turmoil and
become volatile.
Malaysia adopts a rather complicated rice system for the country to supply rice to the local
market and to meet the demand made by her population. All of what we previously discussed in
the supply heading are relatively important as each factor is responsible in determining how
Malaysia be able to meet the demand made by her population and how this impact the
dependency of rice. The Malaysian government policies place this system as a dynamic system
in which we assumed that this system has already been perfected in accordance of the policies
implemented. We also assumed that based on Figure 21, the population group are the key starters
that start this chain and everything are revolving around them as the consumers in the country
itself, ensuring the protection of food security especially rice towards Malaysia population.
83
84
23
Conclusion
We had earlier asked the questions of what are the challenges in maintaining food security
for rice in Malaysia and what opportunities lie in the future regarding the food security issue in
the next 38 years onwards. Based on the discussion we have both in the demand section and the
supply section, we can possible already answer these questions. First, the challenges for
Malaysia to maintain her food security are the increasing population sizes in Malaysia which
include Malaysians and Non-Malaysians, increasing demand with limited local rice supply as
well as price policy burden which cost the government billions of ringgit in investment. The
demand projected in 2050 is estimated to be at 824.5% and based on the perspective of current
rice supply and what has been projected by other tells us that Malaysia may has trouble in
matching those demand. Local production of rice seems to be not enough and for the past several
years, Malaysia has been dependent on the production of rice from other countries that have
surpluses by importing them into the country. In term of price policy, the government
expenditure on the subsidies, creating import tariffs and other economic barriers are increasing as
year’s progress and with current market volatility, this policies can cost more if it is still
maintained, may create an economic problem to the country herself. It is discussed earlier that
most of the monetary fund used for the implementation policies are from the consumers and
taxpayers. The people are prone to oppose increment in tax either from their salary or other
means to support expensive policies and this can create more poverty rather than improving life
of many in Malaysia. In the long run, the policy itself may cause the collapse of one of the
government made objective that is to eradicate status of the poor within the country.
Given the challenges, there are plenty of opportunities and solutions for every challenge
raised. In term of population boom, the government cannot really do anything to stop the
increment as population will continue to grow in any society. However, the government can limit
the growth of other population within Malaysia such as illegal immigrants, refugees and stateless
persons and make this population in a control amount by creating strict entrance barrier into the
country. The only way Malaysia can provide enough supply of rice to meet the demand of her
population is that the demand chain of these populations must be restricted by reducing their
number in the country. This intervention may seems hard and impossible to implement as no
matter how much the government try to send them back to their original countries, others will
come and replace them. One idea although seems old is that patrols around the borders need to
24
be increased to reduce the number of illegal population from coming into the country and to
prevent them from disrupting the food security in Malaysia. Indirectly, this will create
opportunities to the locals of having job prospective thus reducing rate of poverty among those
unemployed in the country. In addition, the country should also try to consider to reduce import
tariff towards another substitute of rice such as wheat in which the population can be dependent
on. Introducing substitute may decrease the demand of rice in Malaysia thus creating a smaller
gap between the total consumption and production of rice in the country. Another opportunity
which can be utilise by the government is to increase the innovation within the rice prospect by
increasing funding for R&D projects. Studies which look into the relationship between R&D
funding with respect of rice productivity found that increment funds in rice R&D will be able to
generate increment up to 70% of rice productivity in a country. Malaysia has a lot of resources
that can be invested into this area and with output as big as mentioned, Malaysia could in the
future be able to have surpluses in yield and be able to depend on her own rice production to
support the demand thus achieving the aim for SSL. Apart from that, billions of ringgit can be
save from importing rice and this money then can be use to eradicate poverty in Malaysia
herself.
For price policy, one suggestion which can be made is for the government to try another
alternative policy that uses lesser money yet increasing the production outputs. Suggestions
made were that the government need to invest more in R&D, improve the management
efficiency and increase usage of agriculture supply. Malaysia need to have a vision of closing the
gap created between the total consumption and the production of rice in the future without
depending much on imported rice. It is a norm that no countries want to pocket out extra money
for something they able to produce themselves. In order for this to happen, the government need
to restructure how they can manage a more efficient management which then can ensure a rise in
the productivity. One idea is they can employ more women into the workforce in which the
World Bank states that increment of women employees in working force can increase the
productivity of a the workplace by 23%. For agriculture supply increment, it is found that if
farmers increase their usage of fertilizers for rice crop, it will increase the production of rice thus
increasing the SSL of rice itself in Malaysia.
25
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rice in Malaysia. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 1-21. Retrieved January 23, 2013, from
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15062/1/Demand_Analyses_of_Rice_in_Malaysia.pdf
The World Factbook. (2011). In Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved January 18, 2013, from
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/my.html
Toriman, M. E., & Mokhtar, M. (2012). Irrigation: Types, Sources and Problems in
Malaysia. Irrigation Systems and Practices in Challenging Environments, 361-371. Retrieved
February 11, 2013, from http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/34120/InTech-
Irrigation_types_sources_and_problems_in_malaysia.pdf
28
Vengedasalam, D., Harris, M., & McAulay, G. (2011). Malaysia Rice Trade and Governement
Interventions. , 1-19. Retrieved January 22, 2013, from
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/100726/2/Vengedasalam.pdf
Wahab, A. (2013). Malaysia: Grain and Feed Annual 2013. Global Agricultural Information
Network, 1-11. Retrieved February 28, 2013, from
http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annua
l_Kuala%20Lumpur_Malaysia_2-25-2013.pdf
Wong, L.C.Y., Emrus, S. A., Md Bashir, B., & Tey, J.Y.S. (2010). Malaysian Padi & Rice
Industry: Applications of Supply Chain Management Approach. , 1-17. Retrieved March 12,
2013, from http://www.isis.org.my/attachments/651_LW_Nat_Rice_Conf_1Jun10.pdf
29
Appendix
Figure 1
Year Rice consumed in 1000MT Growth Rate (%)
1992 1585 3.8
1993 1650 4.1
1994 1709 3.58
1995 1715 0.35
1996 1705 -0.58
1997 1837 7.74
1998 1940 5.61
1999 1957 0.88
2000 1946 -0.56
2001 2010 3.29
2002 2020 0.5
2003 2030 0.5
2004 2050 0.99
2005 2150 4.88
2006 2166 0.74
2007 2350 8.49
2008 2500 6.38
2009 2545 1.8
2010 2690 5.7
2011 2710 0.74
2012 2819 4.02
Figure 1: Table showing the value of rice consumption in 1000MT and the annual growth by percentage from the period starting 1992 to 2012.
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2012
[30]
Figure 2
Malaysia Milled Rice Consumption Trend for 20 years period

3000
2500
2000
1000MT
1500
1000
500
0
'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Time period starting 1992 to 2012
Figure 2: Line graph representation of milled rice consumption from 1992 to 2012.
[31]
Figure 3
Growth Rate of Milled Rice Consumption in Malaysia
9
5
Percentage %
-1
-2
TIme Period Starting 1992 to 2012
Figure 3: Line graph for Growth Rate consumption of milled rice in Malaysia.
[32]
Figure 4
Population in Malaysia over period of 1992-2012

35000
30000
25000
20000
1000 people
15000
10000
5000
0
'92
1 '93
2 '94
3 '95
4 '96
5 '97
6 '98
7 '99
8 '00
9 '01
10 '02
11 '03
12 '04
13 '05
14 '06
15 '07
16 '08
17 '09
18 '10
19 '11
20 '12
21
Pop 19204 19701 20205 20721 21247 21781 22322 22868 23415 23965 24515 25060 25590 26100 26586 27051 27502 27949 28401 28859 29322
Source: FAOSTAT. Population Estimation and Projection. 2012
[33]
Figure 5
Population Estimation from 2013 to 2050

50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
1000 people
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Series1 297302307311316320325329334338343347351356360364368372376380384387391395398401404408411413416419422424427429432434
Projection of poulation in Malaysia over period of 2013- 2050
Source: FAOSTAT. Population Estimation and Projection, 2012
[34]
Figure 6
Figure 6: Bar and line graph of income distribution in Malaysia from 1995-2009
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2012
[35]
Figure 7
Figure 7: Percentage of poor and hard-core poor population in Malaysia from 1995-2009
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2012
[36]
Figure 8
Source: Yeong-Sheng et al., 2008. Demand Analyses of Rice in Malaysia.
[37]
Figure 9
Source: Norimah et al., 2008. Food consumption Patterns: Finding from the Malaysian Adult Nutrition Survey (MANS)
[38]
Figure 10
Figure 10: Left graph shows the mean frequency of food consumption in Urban Area while on the right is for the Rural Area Population.
Source: Norimah et al., 2008. Food consumption Patterns: Finding from the Malaysian Adult Nutrition Survey (MANS)
[39]
Figure 11
Year Production Rate in 1000MT Growth Rate (%)

1992 1190 3.48
1993 1300 9.24
1994 1325 1.92
1995 1330 0.38
1996 1300 -2.26
1997 1280 -1.54
1998 1255 -1.95
1999 1290 2.79
2000 1410 9.3
2001 1350 -4.26
2002 1418 5.04
2003 1470 3.67
2004 1415 -3.74
2005 1440 1.77
2006 1385 -3.82
2007 1475 6.5
2008 1536 4.14
2009 1615 5.14
2010 1642 1.67
2011 1690 2.92
2012 1700 0.59
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2012. Milled Rice Production by Year.
[40]
Figure 12
Production of Milled Rice in Malaysia from 1992-2012

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
1000MT
800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Years
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2012. Milled Rice Production in Malaysia by Year.
[41]
Figure 13
Growth Rate of Rice Production in Malaysia from 1992-2012

10
6
Percentage growth (%)
-2
-4
-6
Years
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2012. Milled Rice Production in Malaysia by Years.
[42]
Figure 14
Year Historical SSL Data (%)

1990 79.00
1991 76.00
1992 75.00
1993 78.00
1994 80.00
1995 76.00
1996 71.00
1997 68.00
1998 66.00
1999 68.00
2000 70.00
2001 71.00
2002 70.00
2003 70.00
2004 70.00
2005 72.00
2006 72.00
2007 72.00
2008 73.00
Figure 14: SSL level of rice in Malaysia with actual historical data and simulated data.
Source: Mohamed Arshad, F., Alias, E., Mohd Noh, K., & Muhammad Tasrif, 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia..
[43]
Figure 15
Source: Mohamed Arshad, F., Alias, E., Mohd Noh, K., & Muhammad Tasrif, 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia..
Figure 16
[44]
Source: Mohamed Arshad, F., Alias, E., Mohd Noh, K., & Muhammad Tasrif, 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia.. IJMS 18(2).
Figure 17
[45]
Sources: Mohamed Arshad, F., Alias, E., Mohd Noh, K., & Muhammad Tasrif, 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia.
Figure 18
[46]
Source: Toriman, M.E., & Mokhtar, M., 2012. Irrigation: Types, Sources and Problems in Malaysia, Irrigation Systems and Practices in
Challenging Environments
Figure 19
[47]
Source: Mohamed Arshad, F., Alias, E., Mohd Noh, K., & Muhammad Tasrif, 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia.
Figure 20
[48]
Source: Mohamed Arshad, F., Alias, E., Mohd Noh, K., & Muhammad Tasrif, 2011. Food Security: Self-Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia.
Figure 21
[49]
Source: Ramli, N., Shamsudin,M., Mohamed, Z., Radam, A., 2012. Impact of Price Support Policy on Malaysia Rice Industry.
Figure 22
[50]
Source: Wahab, 2013. Malaysia: Grain and Feed Annual 2013.
Figure 23
[51]
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2013. Import and Export Price Indices.
Figure 24
[52]
Figure 24: Relationship between Rice Production (blue), total consumption (red), SSL (purple) and import level (green)
Source: Ramli, N.N., Shamsudin, M.N., Mohamed, Z., Radam, A., 2012. Impact of Price Policy Support on Malaysia Rice Industry.
Figure 25
[53]
Source: Vengedasalam, D., Harris, M., & McAulay, G., 2011. Malaysian Rice Trade and Governments Intervention.
[54]
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Food Security in Malaysia Challenges and Opportunities for Malaysia of Present

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Supply of foods in Malaysia ........................................................................................................12

3.2 Household Income

Demand Projection of rice until 2050:

iii. Change to percentage back by multiplying by 100%.

d. Same formula and procedure as (c) for population growth rate:

3. Self-sufficiency level (SSL) of rice.

5. Import and Export of Rice in Malaysia

6. Agricultural Perspective of Rice

6.2 Technological Modernisation, Research and Development (R&D) and Malaysia’s

Chern, W. S. (2000). Assessment of demand factors affecting global food security. In W. S.

Industry: Production and Import of Rice in Malaysia by 2003-2008. . (2008). In Department of

Malaysia Milled Rice Production by Year. (2012). In United Department of Agriculture.

Malthus, T. (1998). An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1-126. London: Electronic

Research & Development Organisations. (2013). In Malaysia Investment Development Authority.

Summary Findings of Household Income. (2012). In Department of Statistics Malaysia.

Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2012

Malaysia Milled Rice Consumption Trend for 20 years period

Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2012

Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2012

Population in Malaysia over period of 1992-2012

Source: FAOSTAT. Population Estimation and Projection. 2012

Population Estimation from 2013 to 2050

Source: FAOSTAT. Population Estimation and Projection, 2012

Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2012

Source: Yeong-Sheng et al., 2008. Demand Analyses of Rice in Malaysia.

Year Production Rate in 1000MT Growth Rate (%)

Production of Milled Rice in Malaysia from 1992-2012

Growth Rate of Rice Production in Malaysia from 1992-2012

Year Historical SSL Data (%)

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