The Revolution in Meteorology 1

The Revolution in Meteorology

February 26, 2018

Integrated Chemistry

Evan Berger
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Over the past decade or so, numerical weather predictions and computer weather forecast have

become increasingly accurate. The advances in numerical weather predictions have occurred

because computers have become exponentially more powerful and meteorologists have gained

more knowledge of what affects weather and due to this weather forecasts have become much

more accurate recently. In the past, weather forecasting has not been accurate and meteorologists

have failed to predict the weather correctly, but they have become increasingly accurate. This

revolution can be connected to sciences of meteorology as it deals with weather and numerical

weather predictions and also computer science due to the use of computers and supercomputers

in models that forecast weather. Due to all of this, the increase in weather forecasting accuracy

and advances in numerical weather predictions, weather forecasting, and meteorology overall,

the field of meteorology could claimed that a revolution has occurred in the field.

The beginning of Meteorology can be traced back to Cleveland Abbe, who started

working on it in the late 1890s. (Lynch, 2010) He recognized that meteorology was simply the

application of hydrodynamics and thermodynamics to the atmosphere. (Lynch, 2010) Next,

Vilhelm Bjerknes continued with Abbe’s work and created a two-step plan. (Lynch, 2010) First,

there was a diagnostic step in where the state of the atmosphere was determined by observations

and the data was recorded. (Lynch, 2010) After that, there was a prognostic step where the laws

of motion are applied to calculate the change over time. (Lynch, 2010) Both Abbe and Bjerknes

came to the conclusion that meteorology was an extremely complicated initial value problem that

had to be computed with mathematical physics. (Bauer, 2015) There was also the application for

treating these as nonlinear differential equations. (Bauer, 2015) Lewis Fry Richardson helped

further the field of meteorology when he created calculations, but they were composed of a lot of

numerical computation. (Lynch, 2010) These calculations weren’t finished quick and by the time
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they were completed, the time had also passed for the forecast that was created. (Lynch, 2010)

Eventually in the 1950s, while computers were just beginning, meteorologists began running

forecasting models on computers. (Bauer, 2015) The first forecasting model was run on a

computer at Princeton in 1950. (Bauer, 2015) The Princeton Project was worked by many

important scientists including famous polymath John von Neumann, meteorologist Carl Gustaf

Rossby, and meteorologist Jule Charney. (Lynch, 2010) At this point, Neumann identified

weather forecasting as an ideal problem to test computers with. (Lynch, 2010) The first real-time

model was run in Stockholm in 1954. (Bauer, 2015) Some of the equations that were used in

these models included the Navier-Stokes equations, mass continuity equations, the first law of

thermodynamics, and the ideal gas law. (Bauer, 2015). Eventually, weather forecasting became a

real possibility in the 1970s with the increase of computing power. (Bauer, 2015)

Numerical weather prediction is a method of using computers to predict and model future

weather predictions. Weather models use numerical weather prediction to help guess and model

future weather. Weather models are basically computer programs that use specialized code to

model future weather. (Gratz, 2016) To start these weather models, data that is collected from

current observations of the atmosphere and current is used to runs the model to predict the future

weather. (Gratz, 2016) The more accurate the data is from the current observation the more

accurate the model output and prediction will be. (Gratz, 2016) The observational includes using

radar readings, satellite observations, the location of clouds, and also weather station data about

conditions on the ground to help get the most accurate data about the current weather. (Gratz,

2016) Recently, satellites have helped fill in gaps of missing data from areas that are lacking in

observational equipment to make even more accurate predictions. (Gratz, 2016) The models take

the data observations and run the models which use physical equations to model and predict the
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weather changes over time. (Gratz, 2016) The data models the creates predictions for next hours,

day, or weeks depending on how the model is configured. (Gratz, 2016) The models include

prediction for weather conditions, temperature, humidity, and wind speed at ground levels and

various elevations. (Gratz, 2016) Weather models are not 100 percent accurate through due to a

few problems. (Gratz, 2016) First, the data that is observed is not always accurate especially

from satellites, and this could lead to inaccurate predictions as weather models are reliant on

accurate observations. (Gratz, 2016) Some conditions in certain areas are also estimated because

there is not enough data collected from this area and this can throw off weather models. (Gratz,

2016) Finally, mountains and other geological features aren’t 100 percent accurate in these

weather models due to computers not being powerful enough to compute the models and this

leads to inaccurate forecast as these geological features have a major impact on the weather.

(Gratz, 2016) These weather models have helped establish meteorology as a quantitative science.

(Lynch, 2010)

A number of advances in meteorology have helped weather forecasting to become more

accurate over time. First, the creation of forecast models played a key part in increasing

accuracy. (Lynch, 2010) The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather was the goal to have

accurate forecasts for up to 10 days into the future. (Lynch, 2010) By the end of 2010, a 10-day

forecast was reality and it was also was mostly accurate too. (Lynch, 2010) Second, was the

creation of Ensemble models, which are multiple forecasts with tiny differences in their initial

data that are combined into one model. (Bauer, 2015) They were created because a small

difference in the initial data could create a huge difference in the end result. (Bauer, 2015)

Because of that, ensemble models were created to help mitigate the effects of this and average

the data out of all the different forecasts that are run. (Bauer, 2015) Another advancement that
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help improved forecast accuracy was meteorologists getting a better understanding of the initial

conditions and how they affect the weather. (Bauer, 2015) There now are satellites to observe

our weather from space and also collect data about our atmosphere. (Bauer, 2015) Also, the

creation of 4-dimensional analysis was important in helping us understand initial conditions.

(Bauer, 2015) 4D-Var is a type of data assimilation and has been integrated with ensemble

models to create even more accurate forecast models. (Bauer, 2015) Two more important things

that have caused advances in accuracy are adding air-quality and the implementation hydrology

to weather forecast and also because weather models are frequently updated to process new data

and implement our new breakthroughs about understanding of meteorology. (Bauer, 2015)

Finally, computing advances have played a big part in the increase of forecast accuracy. (Bauer,

2015) Numerical weather prediction demands some of the fastest supercomputers available

because of how computing power weather forecasting uses. (Bauer, 2015) Because of the

advances in computing power, forecast has been advancing for the past 3 decades, and the

accuracy of a forecast, on average, increase 1 day per year. (Bauer, 2015) Part of the reason that

weather forecasting accuracy has been increasing, is that the advances that weather forecasts

provide, such as saving lives, mitigating damage to property, and helping transportation, energy

consumption, etc. (Lynch, 2010)

Computer advances have played one of the biggest roles in the increase of accuracy of

weather forecasts. In the 1960s some of the fastest computers reached a peak of 4 kiloflops, but

now most modern smartphones can reach a peak of over 1 gigaflop or about 250,000 times

increase in computing power. (Kaku, n.d.) Computers have also gotten smaller over time, and

computers that used to take up a full room can now fit in the palm of our hand. (Kaku, n.d.) But

no ordinary computers are used for numerical weather prediction, rather supercomputers are used
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to get the most out of any forecasting model. (Gratz, 2016) Supercomputers are extremely

powerful computers, that are basically a bunch of smaller computers that are synchronized and

communicate with each other. (Wagstaff, 2012) One of the fastest supercomputers ever built, as

of 2012, was the Sequoia supercomputer. (Wagstaff, 2012) The supercomputer used 1.6 million

processor and consumed over 9.5 megawatts and reached a peak of over 20 petaflops. (Wagstaff,

2012) Supercomputers are used to solve complex problems that use a lot of computational

power. (Russell, 2010) These problems include simulations of the implosion of hydrogen,

nuclear fusion, and climate and weather forecasts. (Wagstaff, 2012) These supercomputers can

cost over $250 million but are only top of their class 2-2.5 years and their lifespan is about 5

years. This is due to the advancements in computing power and the since the older

supercomputer is less power efficient and will have a higher cost of maintenance there is a need

to replace them. (Wagstaff, 2012) According to Moore’s law, until recently, computing power

doubled about every 18 months. (Bauer, 2015) Weather forecasting accuracy has grown

alongside the computational power growth because the more data that can be processed and

computed the more accurate the forecast can become. (Bauer, 2015) Along with meteorology,

computers are used in other fields of science so that the scientists can do complex math and also

compute data results. (Bergman, 2007) They have also helped revolutionize the scientific process

so that scientists can do more in less time. (Bergman, 2007)

In the future, there might be limitations in improvement due to the many scientific

challenges and computer challenges, but there is still a lot of room for improvement in our

forecasts. (Bauer, 2015) Convection is one big thing that meteorologists don’t fully understand

and our current computers aren’t powerful enough to include them in forecasting models. (Bauer,

2015) If meteorologists could implement convection into models, there might be able to have a
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noticeable increase in accuracy. (Bauer, 2015) Meteorologists also need to add more physical

and chemicals processes that are occurring in our atmosphere, and also understanding physical

parameterizations because there is not a full understanding of the process currently. (Bauer,

2015) Satellites also could help meteorologists achieve more accurate initial conditions and also

could help with wind analysis. (Bauer, 2015)

There will also be a ton of advances on the computer side of meteorology. With

computational power constantly becoming cheaper and next-generation data assimilation also

being developed, supercomputers will be able to compute even more with the same amount

processors. (Bauer, 2015) A problem with this though is that the computer will output more data,

and with that supercomputers will need to be able to handle all of the data being transferred and

need enough storage to hold past forecasts. (Bauer, 2015) There is also the limitation of Moore’s

Law because as processors get smaller and faster they output more heat and no solution has been

found on how to dissipate the heat faster. (Wagstaff, 2012) Because of this limitation,

supercomputers are going to need to be able to scale better if one process is split into many

different processors so that there is no computing power lost if the process is split. (Bauer, 2015)

Some other things scientist and meteorologist are working on include the GOES-R satellite that

will able to provide pictures every 30 seconds and also be able to map lightning instantaneously

(Hayes, 2016) Scientists are also implementing application onto smartphones and other devices

that will them to collect more data about the current weather from where the device is located.

(Bauer, 2015) Meteorologists are also working on Nowcasting or quickly developing weather as

current weather models are not suited for nowcasting. (Lynch, 2010) Overall, there are many

difficulties that will be encountered as meteorologists aim for more accurate forecasts, but there

is still a lot of room for improvement.

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In conclusion, the advancements in numerical weather prediction, the increase in

accuracy of weather forecasts, and the advancements in meteorology prove that a revolution has

occurred in the field. Advancements in weather models, data collecting and computers have

helped increase the accuracy of forecasts models and new advancements will continue this

increase. These advancements include better data collecting via satellites, the implementation of

ensemble models, and the increase of computational power in computers. These advancements

have huge implication for scientists as it helps meteorologist how weather works and what

affects our weather, along with computer advancements make science experiments and projects

easier. It also has huge implications for society and everyday life as knowing what the weather is

helps people plan accordingly and can also mitigate damage to property, decrease transportation

delays caused by weather, and even save a multitude of lives.

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References

Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., & Brunet, G. (2015, September 02). The quiet revolution of

numerical weather prediction. Nature, 525, 47-55.

Bergman, J. (2007, October 15). Windows to the Universe Using computers for science.

Retrieved February 25, 2018, from World Wide Web.

https://windows2universe.org/?page=%2Fphysical_science%2Fbasic_tools%2Fcomputers_in_sc

ience.html

Gratz, J. (2016, August 8). On the Snow How do weather models work? Retrieved

February 25, 2018, from World Wide Web: https://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/584862/how-

do-weather-models-work

Hayes, J. (2016, September 14). Harris The quiet revolution in weather forecasting.

Retrieved February 25, 2018 from World Wide Web.

https://www.harris.com/perspectives/weather/the-quiet-revolution-in-weather-forecasting

Kaku, M. (n.d.). Big Think The future of computing power (fast, cheap, and invisible).

Retrieved February 25, 2018, from World Wide Web. http://bigthink.com/dr-kakus-universe/the-

future-of-computing-power-fast-cheap-and-invisible

Lynch, P. (2010). World Meteorological Organization Weather and climate forecasting:

Chronicle of a revolution. Retrieved February 25, 2018, from World Wide Web.

https://public.wmo.int/en/bulletin/weather-and-climate-forecasting-chronicle-revolution

Russell, R. (2010, January 19). Windows to the Universe What is a supercomputer?

Retrieved February 25, 2018, from World Wide Web.

https://windows2universe.org/physical_science/basic_tools/supercomputers.html
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Wagstaff, K. (2012, June 19). Time What, exactly, is a supercomputer? Retrieved

February 25, 2018, from World Wide Web. http://techland.time.com/2012/06/19/what-exactly-

is-a-supercomputer/