Lok Sabha Exit Poll Results 2019 Election LIVE Updates

Exit Poll Results 2019;

Lok Sabha Election

In Bihar, the Congress' efforts to string together a Mahagathbandhan
along with Tejashwi Yadav's RJD seems to have bit the dust, with people
of the state once again giving the mandate to the BJP-JD(U) alliance. The
India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted 38-40 seats for NDA and
0-2 seats for UPA.

In the 2014 elections, BJP had emerged as the single largest party in
the state (Bihar), winning 22 seats with a vote share of 29.9 per cent. Lalu
Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal was the second-biggest in terms of votes
polled, with a share 20.5 per cent, but it was third in terms of seat tally (4).
In Kerala, Congress will bag 13 seats, predicts poll of polls. It has
given five seats to the Left and one to the BJP. In the 2014, Lok Sabha
elections, Congress had emerged as the single largest party in the state
with 8 seats and a vote share of 31.5 per cent. The Communist Party of
India (Marxist) had won 5 seats with 21.8 per cent votes.

Poll of polls prediction in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Jharkhand:

Rajasthan (25 seats): NDA - 16, Congress - 3, Others- 6

Maharashtra (48 seats): NDA - 36, Congress+NCP - 11

Jharkhand (14 seats): NDA - 9, Congress+JMM – 5

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 In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP had emerged as the single
largest party, winning 23 seats in Maharashtra. In Rajasthan, BJP won all
25 seats with a vote share of 55.6%. In Jharkhand, BJP emerged as the
single largest party with 12 seats and vote share of 40.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, Anthro.ai, which calls itself an 'AI Anthropology

experiment', has predicted that the BSP SP RLD combine will win 54 seats
in Uttar Pradesh. "We may be wrong about 8 seats. The BSP will win 27.
The SP will win 22. The RLD will win 2. We have a few more weak
projections for the BSP than for the SP," their blog said.

West Bengal Exit Poll Results 2019:

News18’s IPSOS - TMC 25-28 | BJP 3-7 | Others- 5-7

India News- Polstrat- TMC 26 | Congress 2 | BJP 14

Republic-Jan Ki Baat- TMC 28 | Congress 2 | BJP 18-26

Republic- CVoter- TMC 29 | Congress 2 | BJP 11

IN 2014, Lok Sabha elections, BJP bagged only 2 seats (Asansol and
Darjeeling) with 17 per cent vote share.

Times Now-VMR predicts BJP will win 23 seats in Gujarat

NDA: 23; UPA: 3

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 For Lok Sabha, three exit polls have predicted a big win for the NDA.
Two exit polls said the BJP-led NDA will win more than 300 seats and
return to form its second successive government. Times Now-VMR says
NDA will win 306 and UPA 132 seats.

In the 2014 elections, the NDA together won 336 seats. The BJP
swept all seats in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal
Pradesh, Goa, and virtually won all of Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh (71 out
of 80) as well as Bihar with allies.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party had won
all of the state’s 26 seats with a vote share of 60.1 per cent. Congress was
the second in terms of vote share at 33.5 per cent.

Most exit polls on Sunday [May 19], predicted another term for Prime
Minister Narendra Modi, with some projecting that the BJP-led NDA will get
more than 300 seats to comfortably cross the majority mark of 272 in the
Lok Sabha. The News18-IPSOS survey suggested that the NDA is likely to
win 336 seats. If the survey turns out to be right, the BJP will break a 48-
year-old record, and Modi will become the first prime minister in that many
years to win a second term with a clear majority.

Exit Poll Results 2019; Lok Sabha Election

The India Today- Axis My India Exit Poll predicts that the BJP-led
NDA will win between 339 and 369 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
If the figures hold true, the NDA will have better its tally than it could
manage in the 2014 Lok Sabha seat.

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 Is NaMo going to win a second term as PM or will RaGa return the
Congress to power? Track live results with MSN on May 23. Also get fast,
unbiased and comprehensive updates from India’s top news sources.

Our exit poll shows that the Modi-Shah duo has been able to
convince the voters that it is better suited to govern the country than
the Congress-led Opposition.

India Today-My Axis India exit poll shows that the Congress-led
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will be able to win 77 to 108 seats in this
general election.

If these numbers hold true on May 23, when the results of the
2019 Lok Sabha election will be declared, the Congress is in deep
trouble.

Also,, the regional parties are likely to win between 69 and 95 seats.

SOUTH SHOWS THUMBS DOWN TO BJP

The overall figures predicted by the India Today-My Axis India exit
poll shows that people in the five southern states-Karnataka, Tamil Nadu,
Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana-have voted against the BJP-led
NDA.

In Tamil Nadu, the alliance between DMK and Congress is expected

to win 34-38 seats. On the other hand, the alliance between the BJP and
AIADMK is expected to win 0-4 seats. The biggest sufferer in Tamil Nadu is
the AIADMK which had won 37 seats in 2014.

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 In Andhra Pradesh, there is bad news for the Chandrababu Naidu-led
Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Congress.

The YSR Congress is expected to win 18-20 seats. The TDP, which
is the ruling party in Andhra Pradesh, has much to worry as the exit poll
predicts it to win 4-6 seats. In 2014, the TDP won 16 seats.

In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is expected to win 15-16 seats of

the total 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The Left led-LDF is predicted to
win 3-5 seats.

Meanwhile, the BJP may open its account in the state and get one
seat.

In Karnataka, the BJP is expected to make a clean sweep and is

expected to win 21-25 seats. In 2014, the BJP won 17 seats in Karnataka.
The Congress-JD(S) alliance is expected to win 3-6 seats at best.

People in Telangana, the fifth state in the South, have apparently

reposed their trust in the leadership of K Chandrashekhar Rao-led
Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS). India Today-My Axis India exit poll
shows that TRS is likely to win 10-12 seats. The Congress and the BJP
may win 1-3 seats each.

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 UTTAR PRADESH GOES PARTIALLY TO BJP?

Uttar Pradesh, the state that sends the highest number of seats to the
Lok Sabha, appears to have voted to bring Narendra Modi back to power.
Uttar Pradesh sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

The India Today-My Axis India exit poll shows that the BJP+ will win
62-68 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The exit poll shows that the gathbandhan
(alliance) between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party
(BSP) seems to have not worked in Uttar Pradesh. If the exit poll results
hold on May 23, the SP-BSP alliance will win 10-16 seats at best.

The Congress meanwhile is expected to win 1-2 seats and Congress

president Rahul Gandhi appears to be fighting a tough battle in his home
turf Amethi.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the Congress won 2 seats, the SP 5
seats, BSP 0 and BJP+ 73 seats i Uttar Pradesh.

WEST POWERS BJP TO DELHI AGAIN If it is bad news for the BJP
in the South, the saffron party has reasons to smile in the West. The party
has been able to maintain its 2014 performance in big states like Gujarat,
Rajasthan and Maharashtra.

Taking the lead is Gujarat, home state of Prime Minister Narendra

Modi and BJP president Amit Shah. India Today-My Axis India exit poll
shows that BJP is likely to win 25-26 seats while the Congress may at best
win one seat.

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 In neighbouring Rajasthan, where the Congress is in power, the
BJP+ is expected to win 23-25 seats. This is another state where the
Congress is in deep troubles as it is projected to win just 0-2 of the 25
seats in Rajasthan.

Maharashtra brings good news for the BJP and Shiv Sena if the exit
poll figures stand on May 23. The BJP+ is likely to win 38-42 seats, while
the Congress will get 6-10 seats in Maharashtra. After Gujarat,
Maharashtra is another BJP-ruled state where the party has performed well
even in the 2019 general elections.

The last state in the West is Goa where again the BJP is expected to
make a clean sweep. Goa has two seats and both of them appear to go to
the BJP.

CENTRAL INDIA ECHOES FIR EK BAAR MODI SARKAR

After projections for the South and West, we now focus on Central
India. The states here are Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is expected to win 26-28 seats, while

the Congress is projected to win 1-3 seats. In the 2014 Lok Sabha
elections, the BJP won 26 seats and the Congress 3 seats.

Our exit poll shows that despite the fact that the Congress won the
state assembly election in December 2018, the Congress has not been
able to cash in on to its victory march.

Another state where the Congress won in December 2018 was

Chhattisgarh. This state too does not have any good news for the
Congress.

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 The BJP is expected to win 7-8 seats, while the Congress may win 3-
4 seats.

NORTH FOLLOWS WEST TO VOTE FOR MODI

Just like the West and Central India, North India too appears to be a
clean sweep for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Barring Punjab, all northern
states-Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi and
Haryana-are expected to bear good news for Narendra Modi.

In Punjab, the Congress under the leadership of Captain Amarinder

Singh is holding its fort. The Akali Dal-BJP combine is likely to win just 3-5
seats in Punjab. The Congress is expected to win 8-9 seats in Punjab. The
Aam Aadmi Party, which won 4 seats in Punjab in 2014, is expected to win
0-1 seat.

In Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, our exit poll shows that the
BJP will all 9 seats. There are four seats in Himachal Pradesh and five in
Uttarakhand. In 2014, the BJP had won all these 9 seats. If the exit poll
predictions hold true on May 23, the BJP will smile in the two Himalayan
states.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP is slated to win 2-3 seats. Congress
is likely to get 0-1 seat and the National Conference 2-3 seats.

Haryana and Delhi are the two other northern states where the BJP is
winning hands down. In Delhi, the BJP is expected to win 6 seats while the
Congress may win 1. The Aam Aadmi Party is expected to suffer the most.
In 2014, BJP won all 7 seats in Delhi.

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 Haryana, another BJP-ruled state, is also expected to go to the BJP.
The party is expected to win 8-10 seats while the Congress may win 0-2
seats.

EAST, NORTHEAST SIGNALS MAJOR INROADS FOR BJP

Exit poll results seem to suggest a landslide victory in the country.

Eastern states like West Bengal and Odisha have historically been a
challenge for the BJP. The party has never formed governments here, nor
has it been a major player.

If the exit poll numbers hold true on May 23, the BJP will win 19-23 in
West Bengal, signalling a major loss for the Mamata Banerjee-led
Trinamool Congress which won 34 seats in 2014.

The TMC is expected to win 19-22 in West Bengal. The Left parties
appear to be defeated in all seats in West Bengal, a state which they ruled
for 34 years.

There is good news again for the BJP in Bihar as it is expected to win
almost all Lok Sabha seats in the state. The India Today-My Axis India exit
poll shows that the BJP-led NDA will win 38-40 seats. The grand alliance of
Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal and others is expected to win only 0-2
seats.

Bihar is an important state as it sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

In Odisha, the Biju Janata Dal (which is the ruling party in the state) is
expected to be biggest sufferer. BJD is likely to win only 2-6 seats, against
the 20 it won in 2014. The BJP on the other hand is expected to win 15-19
seats and the Congress 0-1 seat.

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 India Today- Axis My India Exit Poll shows that the BJP presence in
the Northeast has grown stronger. The BJP-led NDA is expected to win
most of the 25 seats that the region sends to the Lok Sabha.

The Congress+ is likely to win only 3 seats in the Northeast. These

seats are in Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram. The BJP is expected to
win both the seats each in Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Tripura.

In Assam, which has 14 seats, the Congress is likely to win only 0-2
seats while the BJP sweeps 12-14 seats.

West Bengal:

The Modi wave has shaken Mamata Didi's citadel in West Bengal,
the exit poll results predict. The India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll put BJP
and Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress in a neck-and-neck fight.

Out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, the exit poll results have
predicted 19 to 22 seats for the TMC and 19 to 23 seats for the BJP.

In terms of voter share, the TMC is likely to get 41 per cent votes,
almost as much as last elections in 2019. The big story here is the BJP,
which is projected to increase its vote share by 24 per cent to match the
TMC's 41 per cent.

The losers here are Congress and Left. With no seats expected to fall
in their kitty, they are also likely to lose their vote share by three and 20 per
cent, respectively.

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 Polling in West Bengal took place across all the seven phases of Lok
Sabha elections, starting from Coochbehar and Alipurduars parliamentary
constituencies on April 11.

The schedule for seven-phase Lok Sabha elections in the country,

beginning April 11, was announced by the Election Commission in Delhi.
The counting of votes will be taken up on May 23.

In West Bengal, voting in the first phase of Lok Sabha polls was held
on April 11 for two seats, Coochbehar and Alipurduars.

The seats that voted in the second phase on April 18 were Jalpaiguri,
Darjeeling, and Raiganj.

A total of five Lok Sabha seats went to polls on April 23 during the
third phase of Lok Sabha elections. They included Balurghat, Maldaha
Uttar, Maldaha Dakshin, Jangipur, and Murshidabad.

In the fourth phase of Lok Sabha polls, voting took place on April 29
in Baharampur, Krishnanagar, Ranaghat, Bardhaman Purba, Bardhaman-
Durgapur, Asansol, Bolpur, and Birbhum Lok Sabha constituencies.

Bangaon, Barrackpur, Howrah, Uluberia, Sreerampur, Hooghly, and

Arambag Lok Sabha constituencies will to polls in the fifth phase of Lok
Sabha elections on May 6.

In the sixth phase of Lok Sabha elections on May 12, the seats that
voted were Tamluk, Kanthi, Ghatal, Jhargram, Medinipur, Purulia, Bankura,
and Bishnupur.

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 In the final phase of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, a total of 11 seats
went to polls today. They include Dum Dum, Barasat, Basirhat, Jaynagar,
Mathurapur, Diamond Harbour, Jadavpur, Kolkata Dakshin, and Kolkata
Uttar Lok Sabha constituencies.

Is Narendra Modi going to win a second term as PM or will Rahul

Gandhi return the Congress to power? Track live results with MSN on May
23. Also get fast, unbiased and comprehensive updates from India’s top
news sources.

Uttar Pradesh:

With 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh plays a crucial role in

determining who forms the government at the Centre. In the 2014 general
election, the BJP-led alliance won 73 out of the 80 seats in the state. While
most exit polls project that the NDA will comfortably cross the magic mark
of 272 seats to form the government, the projections widely vary with
regard to the BJP s performance in three key states Uttar Pradesh,
West Bengal and Odisha which account for 143 seats.

The projections for the performance of the alliance of SP, BSP and the
RLD by different agencies vary considerably.

Elections 2019: Full coverage

According to the Republic TV-C-voter survey, the Mahagathbandhan will
win 40 seats in UP, the BJP will bag 38 seats and the Congress will win
two. But most of the other pollsters appear to have given BJP a strong
edge in the state.

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The Times Now-VMR poll predicts a tally of 58 for the BJP and its allies
and 20 for the Mahagathbandhan. The exit poll by Today s Chanakya for
News 24 gives Mahagathbandhan 13 seats and predicts that the BJP will
sweep UP, winning as many as 65 seats. Projections by Aaj Tak-Axis My
India data predict that the NDA will win 62-68 seats in UP. None of the
pollsters predict more than two seats for the Congress in the state.

In this election, West Bengal is witnessing a fierce fight between the

Trinamool Congress and the BJP. Exit poll projections predict that the BJP
is set to make significant gains in the state that has 42 seats. Aaj Tak s poll
has given both Trinamool and the BJP equal number of seats 19-22 to
Trinamool and 19-23 to BJP.

The projections for the performance of the alliance of SP, BSP and
the RLD by different agencies vary considerably.

West Bengal has 42 seats and is witnessing a fierce fight between

the Trinamool Congress and the BJP. Exit poll projections predict that the
BJP is set to make significant gains in the state. Aaj Tak s poll has given
both Trinamool and the BJP equal number of seats 19-22 to Trinamool and
19-23 to BJP.

Elections 2019: coverage for U P

According to the Republic TV-C voter survey, the Mahagathbandhan

will win 40 seats in UP, the BJP will bag 38 seats and the Congress will win
two. But most of the other pollsters appear to have given BJP a strong
edge in the state.

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 The Times Now-VMR poll predicts a tally of 58 for the BJP and its
allies and 20 for the Mahagathbandhan. The exit poll by Today s Chanakya
for News 24 gives Mahagathbandhan 13 seats and predicts that the BJP
will sweep UP, winning as many as 65 seats. Projections by Aaj Tak-Axis
My India data predict that the NDA will win 62-68 seats in UP. None of the
pollsters predict more than two seats for the Congress in the state.

India's most populous state Uttar Pradesh holds the key for formation
of government at the Centre. It alone sends 15% or 80 of total 543
members in the Lok Sabha. BJP had bagged 71 of 80 seats in the state in
2014 Lok Sabha election, one fourth of the total 282 seats won by the party
nationwide.

U P ka jaadu

ABP-News-Nielsen has projected that the BJP-NDA will win just 22 of

total 80 seats in India's most populous state Uttar Pradesh, a loss of 51
seats. It has also projected SP-BSP-RLD alliance to sweep the state by
winning 56 seats, an improvement of 51 seats over its tally in 2014.

Similarly, another survey conducted by NewsX-Neta has predicted

that the BJP-NDA will win 33 of total 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh and it has
given 43 seats to SP-BSP-RLD alliance.

If these two projections are correct then the BJP is likely to face
challenges in securing a repeat term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
However, five other polls have projected a clear victory for the BJP in this
tough battle.

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 While India Today-My Axis has projected that the BJP will win 62-68
seats in the state, a loss of 3-9 seats, another survey conducted by Times
Now-VMR has projected the BJP could win 58 seats in alliance with its
partner Apna Dal, a loss of 15 seats in the state.

Similarly, News18-IPSOS survey has projected the BJP will win 60-
62 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while SP-BSP-RLD alliance is expected to win
17-19 seats. According to News24-Chanakya BJP is expected to win 65
seats in the state.

However, two different exit polls conducted by Republic TV in

partnership with CVoter and Jan Ki Bat have reflected two completely
different pictures. While CVoter survey shows that BJP will win 38 seats
and Akhilesh-Mayawati will win 40 seats and Congress 2, another survey
conducted by Jan Ki Bat for the same media group shows that the BJP will
win 46-57 seats, Mahagatbandhan will win 21-32 seats and Congress will
win 2-4 seats.

Though most surveys have projected a BJP win in the state,

however, a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi depends on the
actual number of seats to be won by his party in the state, and not the
projections made by exit polls.

In Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is contesting against the

Samajawadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal alliance and the
Congress, the party could see its tally coming down. While in Delhi it is
predicted to make a clean sweep of 7 Lok Sabha seats.

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 The projections show that the BJP would emerge as the single
largest party winning a comfortable majority with its allies. The Congress is
looking to improve its tally from 44 in 2014, it predicted.

Even as exit polls at the end of the 17th general election on Sunday
pointed to a clear edge for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National
Democratic Alliance (NDA), a section of the Opposition was planning to
launch a pre-emptive strike by submitting a list of parties committed to an
alternative government to the President before May 23, when the results
will be declared.

Opposition leaders said Andhra Pradesh chief minister N

Chandrababu Naidu had taken the initiative to submit such a memorandum
to President Ram Nath Kovind. The move is aimed at improving the
chances of an Opposition coalition being invited to form the next
government by the President in case a hung Parliament emerges from the
seven-phase election.

Naidu told opposition leaders that if there was no such prior intimation
to the President, the BJP and its pre-poll partners in the NDA would have a
clear edge in getting the first chance to form government and proving a
majority in the House.

“His calculation is that the BJP will end up getting less than 200 seats
and if that happens, the gap between the NDA and the other side would not
be wide. But if the letter of intent with signature of all willing parties are not
given to the President, the scattered Opposition is no match against the
NDA,” a senior Opposition leader said on condition of anonymity.

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 According to the Sarkaria Commission report, if a leader has to be
selected from among a group of parties, in the order of preference, “an
alliance of parties that was formed prior to the Elections” comes first.

The Punchhi Commission guidelines also said: The party or

combination of parties which commands the widest support in the
Legislative Assembly should be called upon to form the Government. If
there is a pre-poll alliance or coalition, it should be treated as one political
party and if such coalition obtains a majority, the leader of such coalition
shall be called [to form government].”

Naidu met Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan

Samaj Party supremo Mayawati before holding a meeting with Communist
Party of India (Marxist) general secretary Sitaram Yechury in New Delhi on
Sunday.

The Left is not keen on the course of action suggested by Naidu. A

senior Left leader said, “We don’t need to go to the President till the results
are actually out. We have advised other parties that we should maintain our
unity in the public ...and give public statements about our commitment. We
can only meet the President after the results are actually out.”

The Congress and some other parties had been keen on drafting a
pre-poll Common Minimum Programme (CMP) to showcase the strength of
the anti-NDA camp in the run-up to the Lok Sabha election. That initiative
didn’t go beyond preliminary discussions.

The Lok Sabha Polls 2019 saw tight competition between political
rivals and one of the biggest battles was fought in the Hindi heartland.
Times Now-VMR exit poll throws light on the road ahead. The Bharatiya
17
Janata Party (BJP) is trying to not just hold Congress in its tracks but also
fend off bitter fight offered by regional parties like Bahujan Samaj Party
(BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal
(United), National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) among
others. North India is particularly significant for the Lower House as a large
chunk of the seats are at stake with Uttar Pradesh alone bringing in 80
seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha. Add to that Bihar (40 seats).

The outcome of the Lok Sabha elections on May 23 will answer four
questions about the fundamental nature of the Indian political system.

One: Is India truly turning presidential — where the issue of national

leadership is central in determining voter decisions, or does it remain
parliamentary — where voters are concerned more with electing local
representatives, of different political persuasions, to make laws?

Even though the 2014 election was billed as the first presidential-style
contest, there is little doubt that when Jawaharlal Nehru or Indira Gandhi or
even an Atal Bihari Vajpayee were leading their parties in the election, a
key driver of voter motivation was national leadership. In 2014 too,
Narendra Modi's appeal swung voters towards the BJP, but this was also
laced with a very high degree of anti-incumbency.

But in 2019, the election was very clearly posited as one between
those who wanted Modi as prime minister and those who did not want
Modi. It was thus more a referendum than a presidential contest. The BJP
decided to just project Modi. A party strategist in UP mentioned to this
writer, with a smile, that he did not have to worry much, for Narendra Modi
was fighting in all the 80 seats of the state. Modi made it a point to remind

18
his audiences that a vote for kamal (the lotus, the BJP's symbol) would
come straight to him. The non-BJP camp, for its part, decided to emphasise
local issues and stitch together local alliances. If Modi indeed sweeps the
polls, then one could argue that this has been the most definitive election
fought solely on the question of national leadership in recent Indian history.
Alternatively, if he does not fare well, one could argue that India is too
complex for only one issue — a national leader — to prevail and the
parliamentary system inherently encourages diverse political players.

Two: What kind of party organisation works best in delivering

electoral results? Is it a cadre based, disciplined, centralised machine like
the BJP or does a mass-based, somewhat decentralised, loose model work
better?

Over the past five years, Amit Shah has built an astonishing election
machine. The party has enrolled millions of new members; it has kept
booth committees operational between polls; it is relentless in using the
organisational apparatus to contact beneficiaries of government schemes;
it deploys enormous financial resources during campaigns; it dominates the
media space; it has the larger Sangh parivar to push out its message; and
while personal battles exist, the control is such that factionalism is not
allowed to manifest itself too strongly. A lot of this is possible because of
the presence of full-time cadres, a clear chain of command, and
micromanagement from the very top.

On the other hand is the Congress, which, as Rahul Gandhi admitted

in an interview to NDTV, can be very "disorganised". The party has a high-
command culture, but there are leaders who have become a lot stronger in

19
their respective states with a high degree of autonomy (Captain Amarinder
Singh, Kamal Nath and Ashok Gehlot, for example); it is more mass-based
than cadre-based; it gets active primarily during elections; there is also
rampant infighting among leaders and the leadership is often unable to
control it. All of this allows a plurality of voices but also lends itself to
indiscipline. The Congress has made, over the past year, an effort to
connect itself to its own workers, use data, build booth committees, but all
of this is work in progress. And then you have regional parties. The
Bahujan Samaj Party, Biju Janata Dal, DMK, and Trinamool Congress have
very robust, organised structures on to the ground. The outcome will tell us
which model of party organisation delivers better results in India.

Three: Is India voting as one, or will the diversity of Indian political

traditions and social structure and the distinctive history of each region
continue to throw up multiple players?

If the results reflect the exit polls, it is clear that the BJP's footprint
has expanded in areas which had been inhospitable earlier, particularly the
east. But it appears to have hit a roadblock in the south. On the other hand,
the Congress seems set to do well in the south, according to the exit polls,
but it is to be seen whether it can actually rebuild its strength in the north,
capitalise on gains it made in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and recover
any ground in the east. There is then the big variable of regional forces. If
the Mahagatbandhan is able to stop the saffron juggernaut in UP, and
Mamata Banerjee is able to do so in West Bengal, it will show the resilience
of locally rooted federal leaders. In UP, this would be driven by caste; in
Bengal, it would be driven by sub-nationalism and a strong, often violent,
party machine. The outcome will show whether across regional and social

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diversity, there is backing for one idea, leader and a party, the growth or
decline in the footprint of national forces, and whether specific regional or
caste aspirations remain dominant factors.

And finally: Is it time to conceptualise a new normal of Indian politics

where a single party can attain a majority or are we returning to the 1989-
2014 normal with heterogeneity in the political sphere?

For close to two and a half decades, there was a consensus in

political literature on India. Coalitions are here to stay; there is
fragmentation of the polity; national parties will shrink and regional forces
will become more important. The 2014 verdict blew holes in this consensus
by throwing up a single party majority government. But it was still seen as a
black swan event. But if the 2019 results resemble 2014, and the BJP gets
a majority or is close to it on its own, then it is time to rethink the old
consensus. Alternately, if the BJP's numbers shrink drastically and it
requires not just existing but new allies — or an opposition front becomes a
reality — India could well be returning to the 1989-2014 mode.

May 23 is important not just because it will throw up a new

government, but because it will give us a glimpse into longer term patterns
of Indian politics.

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