Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
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Pasivo y Patrimonio
Cuentas x Pagar 16,419
Papeles Comerciales (Deuda Financiera) 49,276
Impuestos por Pagar 119,894
Otras Cuentas por Pagar 1,322
Otros pasivos no financieros 6,535
Pasivo Corriente 193,446
Check! -
BALANCE ECONOMICO
2015
EFECTIVO EN EXCESO
EFECTIVO OPERACIONAL 69,892
CAPITAL DE TRABAJO NETO OPERATIVO (KTNO)( Sin incluir efectivo Op) (92,925)
INVERSIONES NETAS 600,161
TOTAL INVERSIONES 577,129
Check!
VALORACIÓN
Beneficio Tributario
Factor de Descuento
Valor Presente de cada beneficio tributario
Valor Presente BT@Ku 43,194
ESTRUCTURA DE CAPITA
2015
D (t-1) / ( D (t-1) + E (t-1) )
E (t-1) / ( D (t-1) + E (t-1) )
Ke=ku+(ku-kd)*D/E
RESUMEN VALORACIÓN
NO FAMA
Valor Presente FCL@Ku (Valor Empresa Sin Deuda Vu) 816,497
Valor de la Empresa por FCL@WACC (Valor Empresa con Deuda VL) 859,691
Valor de la Empresa por EVA@WACC (Valor Empresa con deuda VL) 859,691
RE VARIABLES MACROECONOMICAS Y FINANCIERAS
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
30% 26% 26% 26% 26%
70% 74% 74% 74% 74%
STADO DE RESULTADOS
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
706,644 763,176 824,230 890,168 961,381
(423,986) (457,905) (494,538) (534,101) (576,829)
282,658 305,270 329,692 356,067 384,553
(35,332) (38,159) (41,211) (44,508) (48,069)
(49,465) (53,422) (57,696) (62,312) (67,297)
(2,880) (5,592) (8,033) (8,480) (8,882)
(57,136) (55,742) (54,920) (54,655) (54,940)
137,844 152,355 167,831 186,112 205,365
(5,151) (9,348) (12,357) (12,616) (13,027)
- (547) 1,839 4,768 8,000
132,693 142,460 157,313 178,264 200,339
(39,808) (37,040) (40,901) (46,349) (52,088)
92,885 105,420 116,412 131,915 148,251
4. BALANCE GENERAL
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(18,231) 45,364 119,189 200,005 283,265
70,664 76,318 82,423 89,017 96,138
58,887 63,598 68,686 74,181 80,115
7,565 7,565 7,565 7,565 7,565
47,110 50,878 54,949 59,345 64,092
165,995 243,723 332,811 430,112 531,175
- - - - -
ANCE ECONOMICO
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(18,231) 45,364 119,189 200,005 283,265
70,664 76,318 82,423 89,017 96,138
(49,718) (44,268) (38,371) (31,993) (25,093)
650,145 683,811 695,357 702,222 714,149
671,091 715,860 739,409 759,246 785,194
1,545
4,074 70,404 103,859 121,166 129,409
- - - - -
VALORACIÓN
ESTRUCTURA DE CAPITAL
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
22.61% 25.75% 24.84% 24.46% 24.37%
77.39% 74.25% 75.16% 75.54% 75.63%
16.14% 17.87% 18.20% 18.08% 18.06%
RESUMEN VALORACIÓN
CON FAMA
2021+
26%
74%
4.00%
25.00%
4.00%
Aaa/AAA
0.75%
9.80%
40.00%
5.50%
0.8
2.00%
1.04
14.816%
Caja final - efect operacional.
como de
dejarlo negativa
Rendim. Fro*(1-T) me afecta la aja, asi no sea operacional, no afecta flujos de caja
2021+
158,049
1,095,940 <--- Valor de Continuidad del FLC asumiendo crecimiento a una tasa "g"
0.511 <--- debe calcularlo
560,214.97
RONIC
594,340 0.16
2.246
Revisar
2021+
24.36%
75.64%
16.43%
14.82% Igual al KU
14.19%
0.000%
2021+
1,162,699 <--- Valor de Continuidad del FLC asumiendo crecimiento a una tasa "g"
0.52
601,368
2021+
879,451 <--- Valor de Continuidad del FCA
0.44
389,902
Inputs for synthetic rating estimation
Please read the special cases worksheet (see below) before you use this spreadsheet.
Before you use this spreadsheet, make sure that the iteration box (under calculation options in excel) is checked.
Enter the type of firm = 2 (Enter 1 if large manufacturing firm, 2 if smaller or riskier firm, 3 if finan
Do you have any operating lease or rental commitments? No No No
Enter current Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) = 411211.1702 137844.2034 152354.6407
Enter current interest expenses = 11562.86445 5150.845592 9347.85
Enter current long term government bond rate = 1.50% 1.90% 3.00%
Output 2015 2016 2017
Interest coverage ratio = 35.56 26.76 16.30
Estimated Bond Rating = Aaa/AAA Aaa/AAA Aaa/AAA
Estimated Default Spread = 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%
Estimated Cost of Debt = 2.25% 2.65% 3.75%
If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.com
For large manufacturing firms For financial service firms (default spreads are slighty differen
If interest coverage ratio is If long term interest coverage ratio is
> ≤ to Rating is Spread is greater than ≤ to Rating is
100000 0.199999 D2/D 20.00% 100000 0.049999 D2/D
0.2 0.649999 C2/C 16.00% 0.05 0.099999 C2/C
0.65 0.799999 Ca2/CC 12.00% 0.1 0.199999 Ca2/CC
0.8 1.249999 Caa/CCC 9.00% 0.2 0.299999 Caa/CCC
1.25 1.499999 B3/B- 7.50% 0.3 0.399999 B3/B-
1.5 1.749999 B2/B 6.50% 0.4 0.499999 B2/B
1.75 1.999999 B1/B+ 5.50% 0.5 0.599999 B1/B+
2 2.2499999 Ba2/BB 4.25% 0.6 0.749999 Ba2/BB
2.25 2.49999 Ba1/BB+ 3.25% 0.75 0.899999 Ba1/BB+
2.5 2.999999 Baa2/BBB 2.25% 0.9 1.199999 Baa2/BBB
3 4.249999 A3/A- 1.75% 1.2 1.49999 A3/A-
4.25 5.499999 A2/A 1.25% 1.5 1.99999 A2/A
5.5 6.499999 A1/A+ 1.10% 2 2.49999 A1/A+
6.5 8.499999 Aa2/AA 1.00% 2.5 2.99999 Aa2/AA
8.50 100000 Aaa/AAA 0.75% 3 100000 Aaa/AAA
For smaller and riskier firms
If interest coverage ratio is
greater than ≤ to Rating is Spread is
100000 0.499999 D2/D 20.00%
0.5 0.799999 C2/C 16.00%
0.8 1.249999 Ca2/CC 12.00%
1.25 1.499999 Caa/CCC 9.00%
1.5 1.999999 B3/B- 7.50%
2 2.499999 B2/B 6.50%
2.5 2.999999 B1/B+ 5.50%
3 3.499999 Ba2/BB 4.25%
3.5 3.9999999 Ba1/BB+ 3.25%
4 4.499999 Baa2/BBB 2.25%
4.5 5.999999 A3/A- 1.75%
6 7.499999 A2/A 1.25%
7.5 9.499999 A1/A+ 1.10%
9.5 12.499999 Aa2/AA 1.00%
Page 24
Credit Ratings
12.5 100000 Aaa/AAA 0.75%
Fuente: www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/ratings.xls
Page 25
Credit Ratings
spreadsheet.
options in excel) is checked.
Small: <$5 billion
No No No No
167831.2228 186112.0704 205365.4069
12356.97591 12615.81 13026.818
4.05% 4.00% 4.00%
2018 2019 2020 2021+
13.58 14.75 15.76
Aaa/AAA Aaa/AAA Aaa/AAA
0.75% 0.75% 0.75%
4.80% 4.75% 4.75%
efault spreads are slighty different)
Spread is EBIT
20.00%
16.00%
12.00%
9.00%
7.50%
6.50%
5.50%
4.25%
3.25%
2.25%
1.75%
1.25%
1.10%
1.00%
0.75%
Page 26
Credit Ratings
Page 27
Flujos de Caja Libre FCA & Payo
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Row 196 Ro
Inversión EBIT/Inter
Inversión EBIT/Inter
KTNO
FCA & Payout Costo de Capital & ROIC
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
0.00%
2016 2017 2018 2019
Ku Kd Ke WACC ROIC
Spread Deuda
EVA
Margenes de Rentabilidad
EBIT/Intereses
EBIT/Intereses
e WACC ROIC
Deuda
e Rentabilidad
Ebi tda MgOpera ci onal
Neto
Año 2016 2017 2018
Ku 13.09% 14.23% 14.87%
Kd 2.65% 3.75% 4.80%
Ke 16.14% 17.87% 18.20%
WACC 12.91% 13.98% 14.56%
ROIC 16.72% 16.80% 17.35%
Año 2,016 2,017 2,018
EVA 21,985 18,907 19,943
2019 2020
117,127 125,325
52,764 59,297
2019 2020
137,723 151,970
83,048 89,826
19,913 26,004
14.5% 17.1%
2019 2020
30 30
40 40
25 25
45 45