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The Craxt ot
Diplomacy
Diplomats have only three principles to guide their work, yet
their craft is extraordinarilycomplex. In this essay adapted from
his March 25 speech marking the 30th anniversaryof the Wilson
Center's Kennan Institute and the centennial of its cofounder,
George F. Kennan, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell defends
the Bush administration'srecent use of those tools.
by Colin L. Powell
60 Wilson Quarterly
the people, achieves it from the administration- on condition that he leave
the country.But Bierce even disparagedpatience as "aminor form of despair
disguised as a virtue."
The literaryabuse of diplomats and diplomacy is mostly harmless. One
could easily multiply examples of such descriptions without doing damage
to the nationalinterestin the process,but I am not so inclined. From 35 years
in the armyand another dozen or so as national security advisor,privatecit-
izen, and secretaryof state, my view of diplomacyand diplomatsincludes nei-
ther scorn nor skepticism.To the contrary,I deeply respect both diplomacy
and diplomats because I know how difficult and important it is to conduct
a truly skillful diplomacy.
Three principleslie at the core of that skill. To introducethe first,we may
observethat diplomacy is often taken- improperly- to be synonymouswith
statecraft.Statecraftencompasses both the internal and the external man-
agement of the state, and the relationsbetween the two; diplomacyhas to do
only with externalaffairs.For example, managing the connections between
the domestic economy and internationalcommerce is a taskof statecraft,not
diplomacy.Negotiating free-tradeagreements is a taskfor diplomacy as well
as statecraft.
Put a little differently,statecraftinvolvesthe full ensemble of means at the
disposal of statesmen. Statesmen can choose force as a means to deal with
other states, in which case they rely on soldiers, and they can use the non-
forceful methods of diplomats.Wise statesmen see an intrinsic link between
these two means, and between power, which is the engine offeree, and per-
suasion, which is the engine of diplomacy. Adroitly used, each means
strengthensthe other.
Summer2004 61
Diplomacy
When we must use force, it is a blessingto have the best force around.The
U.S. militaryis the finestin the world,a factforwhichwe arethankful.Ourtroops
and those of our Coalitionpartnersperformedbrilliantlyin Afghanistanagainst
the TalibanandAl Qaeda,and in Iraqagainstthe Baathregime.We are in their
debt as they continue today,in still-dangerousmissions,to build peace afterthe
rigorsof war.We also owe our gratitudeto thousandsof diverselytalentedcivil-
ians, diplomatsincluded, who workat these soldiers'side.
That this workin Afghanistanand Iraqgoes on illustrateswell the principle
thatpoweralone can but rarelyproducepolicysuccess.Militaryvictoriesdo not
translateautomaticallyinto political achievements. After the main fighting
stops,otherkindsof hardwork,includingthe politicaland diplomaticwork,have
to continue.
There is anotherwaythatpoweris necessarybut not sufficientto the endur-
ing success of foreign policy. When statesmen use force, it affects not only
the immediatetheaterof militaryoperationsbut also, overtime, a much broad-
er theater of political operations. Powerthus attains a reputation that walks
before it into the future, affecting what othersthink and do. That reputation
worksas the awarenessof power'spotentialuse, and it is the businessof diplo-
macy to transformthat awarenessinto influence. One of my predecessorsat
the State Department, Dean Acheson, said it well: "Influence is the shad-
ow of power."
Americaneverlooksforopportunitiesto exercisepowerexcept in defenseof
vital nationalinterests.We do not use force justto burnishour reputation.But
those who do not understandour democraticwaysmay mistakeour reluctance
to use forceforirresolution.BecauseAmericansareslowto anger,Al Qaeda,the
Taliban,and SaddamHusseinmay have concluded as the 1990sunfoldedthat
we could be pummeledand spurnedrepeatedlywithouttheirhavingto fearseri-
ous reprisal.If so, they and othershave now been set straight.
That is importantbecause, as Acheson suggests,it is better,wheneverpossi-
ble, to let the reputationof powerratherthan the use of powerachieve policy
goals.Ittakesskill,diplomaticskill,to deploythe reputationof power,and it often
takestime for success to manifestitself.But it is clear that enduringsuccess in
foreignpolicy comes from patientlydeployingthe shadowof power,as well as
from the occasionalapplicationof poweritself.Indeed, too much use offeree
makesenduringsuccess lesslikely.
The most importantreasonforthis is widelyappreciated:A greatpowerthat
uses force forless than vital interests,and thatdoes so frequentlyor with a short
fuse, risksmobilizingotherstatesto join ranksto balanceagainstit. This is what
EdmundBurkemeantin 1790when, in lightof the FrenchRevolution,he wrote
of a powerfulBritainthat "ourpatience will achieve more than our force."
The use offeree often gives riseto an aftermathmore complex and less pre-
dictablethan the actualemploymentofferee. If thataftermathis not mastered,
all foregoinguse offeree will be retrospectivelydevalued;one can win a warand
still lose the peace by under-reaching diplomatically.Thus, for example,
Americaprovidedthe marginof Allied victoryin WorldWarI, but laboredtoo
62 Wilson Quarterly
littleto shapethe postwarpoliticaland economic environmentto preventa new
waronly 20 yearslater.
The workof diplomatsandothersin a postwarenvironmentis inherentlyhard
work,but it is crucial.We knew such laborswould lie beforeus in Afghanistan
and Iraq. Yearsof war in Afghanistan,and an avaricious tyranny in Iraq,
destroyedfarmorethandidthe Coalition'suse offeree in eithercountry.Worse,
both societieswere wounded in theirspiritsas well as theirbodies,theirnation-
al cohesion brought low by despots who manipulated internal divisions to
advancetheirown ends. Fromthe start,we resolvedto staythe course until we
achieved not only physicalreconstructionbut also decent representativegov-
ernmentsin both countries- in otherwords,until we turnedmilitaryvictories
into lastingpoliticalaccomplishments.
Too frequentor too quicka resortto force can also underminethe authority
of power.Not all use offeree is createdequal. Other stateswill grantauthority
to the use offeree, implicitlyif not otherwise,if it fallswithin the boundsof jus-
tice and reason;if theythinka use offeree does not fallwithinsuch bounds,they
will withdrawtheirlegitimatingconsent, and therebyunderminethe authority
of power.
Obviously,we still lack universalagreementon what is justand reasonable,
but there is a growing sense of both. Between March 1991 and November
2002,the UnitedNationsSecurityCouncilpasseda dozen resolutionsconcerning
Iraq- resolutionsauthorizingthe use offeree.Thatmattersin a worldwhereprin-
ciplescount.And thatis the kindof worldwe live in, not leastbecauseAmerica,
morethanmostnations,hasstruggledovermanygenerationsto bringsucha world
into being.
Of this, too, we have been mindful in the currentadministration.We have
usedforcewhen we hadto, but not beyond.PresidentBushhasstressedthatstates
supportingterrorismare as guiltyas terroriststhemselves,and they are. But we
wereneverso unimaginative asto thinkthata singleapproachto all terrorist
groups
and theirstatesupporters,least of all a militaryapproach,would workin every
case.As the presidentmade clearon May 1, 2003, we use "allthe toolsof diplo-
macy,law enforcement,intelligence, and finance. We'reworkingwith a broad
coalition of nationsthat understandthe threatand our sharedresponsibilityto
meet it. The use offeree has been- and remains- our last resort."
Diplomacy,then, is persuasionin the shadowof power.It is the orchestration
of wordsagainstthe backdropof deeds in pursuitof policy objectives.As every
sentientdiplomatknows,diplomacyusesthe reputationof powerto achievewhat
poweritselfoften cannotachieve, or can achieve only at greaterand sometimes
excessivecost.
But not everyone is a diplomat. Some have recently argued over Libya's
decision to turn awayfrom weapons of mass destruction in terms that sound
like an old beer commercial:tastesgreat/lessfilling, tastesgreat/lessfilling-
force/diplomacy,force/diplomacy.But of course it's not an either/or propo-
sition. Diplomacy without power is just naked pleading. Power without
diplomacy is often unavailing. Libya's recent decision to turn away from
weapons of mass destruction was, at the least, accelerated by displays of
American power, but policy success also required American and British
Summer2004 63
Diplomacy
64 WilsonQuarterly
Disagreementsamong friendsare unpleasant,but they should not surprise
or overlyexciteus. Nearlyeveryyearsince 1949,someone haspredictedthe end
of the NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization,whetheroverBerlin,Suez, Vietnam,
the 1973 Middle Eastwar,the Euromissiledebatesof the 1980s,or some other
pretext.But NATO hasn'tended; it has grownlarger,teaching us two valuable
lessons.First,don'tfall forthe transatlantichysteriadu jour.Second, and more
important,alliancesbasedon principlesratherthan momentaryneeds havethe
abilityto adjustwhen circumstanceschange.
NATO is such an alliance.In the late 1940s,we worriedthatWesternEurope
might be overrunby the Red Army,or subvertedby local Soviet-supported
Communists.We no longerworryabout the dangersthat confrontedus in the
late 1940s,oreventhe late 1980s.IfNATOwereonlya militarycoalition,it should
have expiredvictorious,fromold age, at leasta decade ago.
ButAmericanstatesmenwere justas concernedin the late 1940sthatwe not
be draggedinto a thirdworldwarovernew Europeansquabbles.That is whywe
weredeterminedthatpostwarEuropesproutstableandprosperousliberaldemoc-
racies,becauseliberaldemocraciesdo not producedisasterson the scaleof world
wars.Thats whatthe MarshallPlanand then NATO,alongwith consistentU.S.
supportforgreaterEuropeancooperationand integration,wereall about.
So NATOhasneverbeen justa militaryalliance.It'sbeen a compactof polit-
icalprinciples,too,which is whyit can nowtransformitselffroman alliancedevot-
ed mainlyto the defenseof commonterritory intoan alliancedevotedto the defense
of common interestsand ideals.That is also why it can apply its irreplaceable
experiencein common defense to dealingwith new kindsof threats.
Transformations can be tricky,however.Our common securitychallengesare
no longer as fixed and vividas they were in the face of Sovietpower.The new
threatswe face are less sharplydefined, more unpredictablein theirtargetsand
methods,so thatwe and ouralliesno longersharecommon perceptionsof threat
to the same extentas in Cold Wartimes.Thathasbeen truein recentyearseven
of mass-casualtyterrorism,though it should now be clear to all that this threat
is not aimed only at America.
But though NATO memberstodaymay not formulateidenticaldefinitions
of threatsandinterests,we morethanmakeup forthe differencesthrougha mature
recognitionthatwe sharethe same vision of a good societyand a betterworld.
Transatlanticties are as flexible as they are unbreakable. So are those of
Americas alliancesin Asiaand elsewhere,particularly as thosealliancesbecome
ever-stronger partnerships amongdemocraticnations.We shouldnot let the nat-
uralstressof dealingwithchangemisleadus.Ourpartnerships aregrowingstronger
as they adaptto new realities.
That said,I will not trivializethe disagreementsthataroseduringthe debate
overwhetherto go to warwith Iraqlastyear.What happenedwas not classical
militarybalancingagainstthe United States;such behaviorwould be senseless,
forEuropeansknowthatthe United Statesis not a strategicthreatto Europe.We
witnessedinsteada formof symbolicbalancingin the withdrawalof consent by
some of our allies to the uses of Americanpower.
It is truethatwe did not need those allies in a strictlymilitarysense. But the
withdrawalof theirconsentfromthe uses of our powerunderminedthe author-
Summer2004 65
Diplomacy
66 Wilson Quarterly
has to be an exit throughwhich the DPRKleadershipcan move if it makesthe
rightchoices.Thatexitis marked,"Embarkhereforthe 2 1stcentury,andan hon-
orableplace in the worldcommunity."If North Korea'sleadersdo embarkfor
the 21st century,and if our diplomacyachievesthe dismantlingof the DPRK's
nuclearprograms,we will havegainedan importantsuccess.Itwould stillbe an
incomplete success- but deliberatelyso. As with Cuba in 1962, we will have
achievedthe most advantageoussuccess availableunderthe circumstances.
This approachto Koreanissuesdoes not mean thatwe will ever rewardthe
NorthKoreanregimeforoppressingitspeopleand threateningitsneighbors,any
morethanwe haverewardedthe Cuban regimesince 1962.Those regimeswill
change, either because they themselves will seek transformationor because
theirpeopleswill changethem. Justas the SovietUnion wasrunningagainstthe
flow of history,so, too, are these two relicsof 20th-centurytotalitarianism.
Clearly,not everyinstanceof politicalprogressin the world,whetherin north-
eastAsiaor anywhereelse, can or shouldbe accomplishedby forceof arms,cer-
tainlynot Americanforceof arms.Of course,we standforuniversalideals- for
liberty,forfreedom,forgovernmentof, by,and forthe people underthe rule of
law- but we cannot justwaveour handsand turnthese idealsinto realityevery-
where at once. Justas clearly,then, our policy prioritiesmust be based on our
nationalinterests.We mustdeal with the worldas it is if we areto haveanyhope
of makingthe worldmore as we would like it to be.
Equallyobviousis that our policy is anchoredin a sound method that con-
nects our intereststo our ideals.If we wantAmericanpowerto endure,and the
reputationof thatpowerto achievethe endswe seek,we mustbe patientandwise,
aswell as strongandbold, in the face of danger.That is ultimatelyhow our ideals
and our interestsare best served:when power and persuasion combine in
advancingour objectives,when we seek partnersthroughwhom our powercan
be legitimatedand used forthe greatergood, and when we distinguishbetween
what is both desirableand attainableand what is only one or the other.
I haveseen enough of U.S. foreignpolicy- itsformulationand its impact-
to know that it is much easierto speakof ideals, interests,and methodsthan it
is to renderthe judgmentsthatconnect them in justthe rightways.Foreignpol-
icy is difficultunder the best of circumstances.It is harderstill when decision
makerssense high stakesand more than the usual degree of uncertaintyin the
world,as has been the case forthe pasttwo and a half years.
So distinctions notwithstanding,it is helpful to think of diplomacy as a
species of statecraft,for diplomacyis a craftmore than it is either a science or
an art.In science, both materialand method are beyond the free choice of the
scientist.In art,neithermaterialnormethodis beyondthe freechoice of the artist.
A craftlies in between:The materialis given in the worldas we find it, but the
methods by which the statesman can shape that material offer wide if not
unboundedchoice.
That in-betweenstateputs a specialpremiumon the good judgmentof the
craftsmanto shapea realityhe can neitherchoose nor ignore.His aim is efficacy.
Havethisadministration s judgmentsbeen basicallysound?Does Americanstate-
craftwork?I believethe answerto both questionsis yes, and I am confident that
future generations will believe so too.
Summer2004 67