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In this paper, an assessment of the current two acceptance criterion of the Egyptian code
for concrete compressive strength as tested by standard cubes was conducted. Actual
determination of the statistical parameters for compressive strength data for fourteen
different projects has been evaluated. It revealed a normal distribution with a bias factor
ranging from 1.23 to 1.58 and a coefficient of variation spanning the range 5.5 % to 22.6 %.
It has been shown that the second accepting criterion of the Egyptian code is very difficult
to fulfill. A reliability analysis using Monte Carlo simulation technique with full and
truncated distributions of variables has been developed. The main focus of this analysis is
to evaluate the probability of failure of both columns and beams due to the variability of
concrete compressive strength. Three levels of concrete compressive strength have been
considered namely; 250, 350, and 450 kg/cm2. Results have shown that the first
acceptance criterion of the Egyptian code suffices to assure a target reliability index of 3.0
provided that the data coefficient of variation does not exceed 17.5 % for all strength levels.
Furthermore, an additional condition has been proposed for extreme cases where the
coefficient of variation exceeds the 17.5% for all strength levels. This condition has been
developed through truncated distribution which imposes a minimum strength for achieving
a target reliability index. The minimum strength, which is related to the characteristic
strength, has shown the dependency on the strength level, the value of both the data bias
factor and the data coefficient of variation.
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main purpose of the first criterion is to ensure test results. The table gives the number of
that most of the strength test results are data points (ns), the average strength (f cm), the
fulfilling the characteristic strength. The first standard deviation (σ), the maximum strength
criterion in the Egyptian code is similar to value (f max), the minimum strength value (f min),
those of most codes, e.g. ACI 318 [2], but with the range (Rg=f max-f min), the ratio (Rg/σ), the
different failing percentage. With respect to characteristic compressive strength of the
the second criterion, it is a measure of data project (the design value) (f cu), the ratio
dispersion, where the range (Rg) is used in this (f min/f cu), the ratio (Rg/fcm), the coefficient of
regard. Statistically, it has been well variation (COV=σ/f cm), and the bias (mean to
established that the range is not a good nominal) factor (α=f cm/f cu). Furthermore, the
measure of data dispersion for large data *
achieved characteristic strength ( f cu ) were
points [3], as one data point, whether high or
*
low, might affect the range adversely. The included in the table, where fcu = f cm − 1.64σ
other measure of data dispersion, which is a as per the first criterion of the Egyptian code
better measure for large data points, is the eq. 1-a. All these values were used to evaluate
standard deviation. The ACI 214 [4] provision the actual strength data as will be shown in
adopted the standard deviation as a reflection the following sections.
of concrete quality. However, the standard
deviation in itself without being related to the 3. Type of distribution
average strength value is questionable as the
same standard deviation might indicate supe- Data evaluation in most design codes is
rior quality for high strength concrete, and based on the assumption that the statistical
poor quality for normal strength concrete [5]. distribution of the compressive strength data
It is worth mentioning, as will be shown later, follows a normal distribution [6-8]. Fig. 1
that the first acceptance criterion of the shows the Cumulative Density Function (CDF)
Egyptian code includes the standard deviation for the actual strength data points of the
measure implicitly. fourteen projects considered in this study
The main focus of this study is to evaluate plotted on normal probability paper. It is
the acceptance criteria of the Egyptian code in evident that the distribution is normal for all
view of available actual strength data for data points as the CDF’s almost follow a
several projects. Cube compressive strength straight line.
data for fourteen projects were collected and
analyzed. The approach adopted for this 4. Acceptance criteria
evaluation is the reliability analysis, where the
probability of failure, for RC section under According to the Egyptian code, one can
concentric compressive loading and bending simplify the first acceptance criterion as:
loading, is assessed.
fcm ≥ f cu + 1.64σ , (1-a)
2. Evaluation of actual strength data by substituting α=f cm/f cu, and COV=σ/f cm and
rearrange, the following inequality can be
Evaluation of actual test strength has been deduced:
based on fourteen projects. In order to get
representative data, the projects were selected α ≥ 1 /( 1 − 1.64COV ) . (1-b)
such that the site quality control for these
projects ranged from very good to poor
according to ACI 214 classification [4]. In this This inequality relates the bias factor (α) to
study, the concrete compressive strength was the Coefficient Of Variation (COV) of the first
defined as the strength obtained from the criterion. The importance of this inequality is
standard cube (150 mm) tested as per the that it contains several factors describing the
Egyptian code. Summary of the strength data whole statistical characteristic of the strength
for the projects are given in table 1, where distribution. The data dispersion is implicitly
each data point is an average of three strength included in the COV as well as the mean value.
Also, the bias α reflects how far f cm is from f cu,
Table 1
Summary of the fourteen projects' strength data
99.99 2
99.9
Eq. (1-b)
acceptable
99 1.8 Projects' Actual Data
Normal Probability Scale %
95 P1 P6
90 P2 P4
P3 1.6 P7 P14
80
70 P4 P1
P5
50 not acceptable
α
P6 1.4 P9 P5
30 P7 P8
20 P8 P12 P10
10 P9
P13
5 P10 1.2 P3 P11
P11
1 P12
P13
P2
.1 P14
1
.01
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0.8
Mean to Nominal Value (f / f ) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
cm cu
COV %
Fig. 1. CDF's of the actual strength data of the 14 projects.
Fig. 2. First acceptance criterion and actual strength data.
indicating the probability of understrength.
This issue is critical for reliability analysis. Fig. 5. Values for (Rg/σ), fmin/fcu, α and COV
2 shows this inequality together with the
fourteen data points representing the projects The data scatter as given by the (Rg/σ)
in hand. It is clear that 4 of the projects did ranged from 3.77 to 5.84 with an average
not fulfill the Egyptian code based on the first value of 4.423. This indicates that the
criterion. assumption that all data are included in the
With respect to the second accepting ±3σ is valid. On the other hand, the ratio
criterion, none of the projects has fulfilled it f min/f cu for the projects ranged from 0.73 to
despite the fact that one of these projects (P13) 1.19 for the fourteen projects even after
is classified "very good" according to the ACI excluding the unacceptable projects based on
214 [4]. The percentage of Rg/f cm, for the the first criterion. This indicates that for one
fourteen projects, ranged from 31 to 95 %. of the projects, the minimum strength
achieved was 73 % of the characteristic
strength, yet, the concrete strength of this
Probability Density
fourteen projects ranged from 1.23 to 1.58 R = 2nσ
g
with an average of 1.375 meaning that the
average strength for all projects exceeded the
design strength with a reasonable margin. The
COV ranged from 5.5% to 22.6%. The range of
the values is considered large, however, it is
quite similar to those available in the Strength
literature6 [6,8-10]. f
min
f f f
cu cm max
The Cumulative Density Function (CDF) 22.6%, and even in the literature, the typical
for concrete compressive strength has been value of actual COV ranges from 10 to 20%
shown to follow a normal distribution as [6,8-11]. All these evidences institute the
revealed by many researchers [6-8] and proven difficulty of achieving the second accepting
for the current evaluation of the fourteen criterion of the Egyptian code.
projects. Fig. 3 shows schematically the Prob-
ability Density Function (PDF) for the normal 7. Critical evaluation
distribution of concrete compressive strength.
The second accepting criterion can be ex- As mentioned before, ten of the projects
pressed as: considered in this study have fulfilled the first
acceptance criterion of the Egyptian code.
( f max − f min ) ≤ 0.25 f cm . (2-a) None of the projects has satisfied the second
one, which implicitly means that the second
criterion may have been waived by the
Assuming that all the data points fall
consultant engineer as per the code for all the
between ± nσ, where 2nσ represents the range
projects. A question arises regarding the safety
upon which the data are scattered, thus,
of the structures made of a certain concrete
accepted based on the first acceptance
( f max − f min ) = 2nσ . (2-b)
criterion only. In other words, the first
accepting criterion grantees that only 5% of
By combining eqs. (2-a) and (2-b), and the results fail to achieve the characteristic
rearrange, the (COV) of the strength data, strength; however, it does not ensure that the
according to the second accepting criterion structure elements are safe as the criterion
can be expressed as: does not check the understrength values.
( COV = σ / f cm ) ≤ (0.25 / 2nσ ) . (2-c) The safety of the structural elements
under any case of loading can be assessed
Which means that if n=3 (the case where based on the reliability analysis. The main
99.73% of the data points fall between ±3σ), concept and details of this type of analysis are
then the COV should be ≤ 4.17% and for n=2 explained elsewhere [9,12]. Generally, the
(where 95% of the data points fall within ±2σ), analysis is based on a chosen limit state
the COV should be ≤ 6.2% for the second function (g) where;
acceptance criterion to be met. It should be
stated that the assumption of 2n or 3n is g=R-Q, (3)
statistically typical and is a very reasonable as
demonstrated before in the actual strength where R is the member strength and Q is the
data analysis. It has been shown before based load effect. The safety of the structural
on the actual statistical data that these values element against failure is defined by a single
of the COV's are too small and very difficult to factor β (the reliability index) which can be
achieve. The COV, as in the actual data of the depicted from fig. 4 and can be computed as
fourteen projects, ranges between 5.5 to [13],
β = g /σ g , (4) g = [ As f y d/γ s ][ 1 − As f y /
[ 2(γ s / γc )( 0 .67 f cu bd) ]] − D − L , (6)
where g is the mean value of g, and σ g is its
standard deviation. The probability of failure and for concentric compressive load as:
Pf is related to β through [9,12]:
g = 0.35 f cu bh + 0.67Asc f y−D − L . (7)
Pf = 1 − Φ( β ) . (5)
Where, As is the steel area, f y is the yield
Where Φ (β) is the standard normal CDF, thus, stress, b is the section width, d is the effective
depth of the beam, h is the total section depth,
the relation between β and Pf is exponential,
Asc is the total steel area in the column cross
and some of the β values and its
section, f cu is the concrete compressive
corresponding Pf values are given in table 2.
strength, D is the dead load effect, and L is the
live load effect. γs and γc are considered 1.15
8. Limit state functions
and 1.5 as per the Egyptian code [1].
The limit state functions used in this
study were based on the Egyptian code1 using 9. Statistical parameters of the variables
the assumption of maximum usable strain of
0.003 at the extreme concrete fibers in In order to conduct a reliability analysis,
bending. Also, the equivalent stress rectangu- the statistical parameters of all variables
lar block with a stress ordinate of 0.67 f cu/γc considered in the limit state function should
was used together with an elastic perfectly be available. These parameters are; the mean,
plastic stress-strain relation for reinforcing bias, standard deviation, and the type of
steel. The limit state function in bending can distribution. For reinforcing steel, these par-
be simplified as: ameters have been evaluated before by the
author based on 561 test results representing
most of steel types available in the Egyptian
market [14]. Summary of this analysis is given
Probability Density
With respect to both dead and live load, 12. Monte Carlo simulation
summary of the data available in the literature
regarding their statistical characteristics were Full details for the general purpose Monte
summarized elsewhere [14]. Parameters con- Carlo simulation technique are available
sidered in this study are given in table 3. elsewhere [12]. In this study, two types of
simulations have been considered; the full
11. Reliability analysis distribution, and the truncated distribution.
In the former, the variables are generated over
Reliability analysis is a powerful tool for the entire range of ± ∞ without any interven-
considering the variability of both materials tion during generation. On the other hand,
and loading to assess the probability of failure truncated distribution is generated by the
for structural elements. As the statistical dist- intervention during simulation such that the
ributions of the variables in this study were minimum value of the generated variable
found to be distinctly different, the direct should not be lower than a certain pre-defined
application of reliability model techniques is value. This predefined value is set prior to the
not feasible [12]. Thus, it was decided to simulation and is related to the nominal value
utilize the Monte Carlo simulation technique of the variable through the coefficient λ(λ<1.0).
throughout. As will be shown in the subsequent sections,
The main focus of the reliability analysis this technique is very useful in estimating the
was to estimate if the first acceptance criterion minimum concrete compressive strength re-
of the Egyptian code is enough or not to quired to achieve a certain target reliability
ensure certain reliability index. This has been index. A computer program has been devel-
accomplished for structural elements oped to generate the variables using either
subjected to concentric compressive load or type of distribution and its flow chart diagram
bending load. According to eq. (1-b), the first is shown in fig. 5.
acceptance criterion at the limit (i.e. the points
on the curve in fig. 2) can be expressed in 13. Effect of number of realizations
terms of both α and COV for any concrete
nominal strength, and consequently, the The number of realization in each
reliability indices were evaluated at this limit. simulation has been examined for both
For concentric compressive load cases, concentric compressive load and bending.
three cross sections denoted C1 to C3 were Several trials with a number of realization (nf)
chosen and given in table 4. Also included in of 1000000, 200000, 100000, 50000, and
this table, are three rectangular cross sections 25000 have been tried. Also, the mean
B1 to B3 for bending loading. All column dead/live load ratio has been altered from 0.4
sections were reinforced with a typical 1% to 2.2 with an increment of 0.2. Fig. 6 shows
reinforcement, while all beam sections were the results of these trial simulations revealing
designed as under-reinforced sections as per
the Egyptian code [1]. Three different levels of
concrete strength (250, 350, 450 kg/cm2)
have been selected for each case of loading
and section.
Table 3
Statistical parameters of variables
tional condition is needed for the target On the other hand, table 9 also includes
reliability index to be met. the part of truncated distribution, where, the
first acceptance criterion is satisfied, however,
16. Proposal for extreme cases the COV value is relatively higher than the
value of the full distribution acceptance. For
Extreme cases in both concentric compres- instance, for the case of compressive
sive loading and bending loadings are those characteristic strength level of 350 kg/cm2,
having the COV exceeds 17.5% and the and COV value of 21.6, the first acceptance
combination of α and COV satisfies the first criterion is satisfied, the minimum strength in
acceptance criterion, yet, the β value is less the actual field data should not be less than
than 3.0. In these cases, a new condition 80% of the characteristic strength to achieve
should be imposed in order to ensure that the the reliability index of 3.0. It should be noted
target β is achieved. This condition is to that some values in table 9 are not deduced
impose a lower limit on the strength values as from tables 5,6,7, and 8 and were obtained
accomplished in study. This lower limit should from additional simulations.
be a function of the nominal strength value
(i.e. the characteristic strength). In this case, 18. Conclusions
the Monte Carlo simulation with truncated
distribution as described before was utilized, The current acceptance criteria for
the minimum value was imposed on each concrete compressive strength according to
simulation (represented by λ), and the β value the Egyptian code 203-2001 have been
is calculated. Several trials have been assessed through actual strength field data,
conducted and tables 7,8 show the results. As statistical analysis, and reliability analysis.
noticed before in the full distribution The following conclusions can be drawn:
simulations, the reliability indices were found 1. Generally, actual field data have shown a
to be very similar for both concentric compres- bias factor for concrete compressive strength
sive load and bending cases. Also, the β values ranging from 1.23 to 1.58 with a COV ranging
were strength-level dependent. from 5.5 to 22.6 %.
2. Normal distribution fits the compressive
17. Generalized Condition strength data for all the projects considered in
this study.
In order to generalize the condition of 3. It has been shown statistically that the
acceptance, table 9 has been deduced from all second acceptance criterion in the Egyptian
results conducted before. This table code is almost impossible to be met as it
establishes the minimum requirements for needs an exceptional quality control regime.
achieving the target reliability index of 3.0 for 4. Higher strength level shows lower reliability
cases of different ranges of COV and different index for both concentric compressive load
strength levels. The table classifies the and bending for the same value of both the
acceptance conditions into two basic bias and coefficient of variation.
categories. The first category is that where the 5. For concentric compressive loading and
first acceptance criterion of the Egyptian code bending, it has been found that the first
is enough to achieve the target index (with full acceptance criterion alone is enough to
distribution). In this category, the conditions achieve the target reliability index as long as
are set as an upper limit of the COV value and the COV of test results does not exceed 17.5%
its corresponding α for each strength level. For for all strength levels.
instance, for a characteristic strength of 350 6. For COV's higher than 17.5%, an additional
kg/cm2, the first acceptance criterion of the condition should be imposed to ensure the
Egyptian code guarantees the minimum target reliability index of 3.0.
reliability index of 3.0 as long as the A proposal, based on Monte Carlo Simula-
coefficient of variation does not exceed 18.9 % tion with truncated distribution, is introduced
and the condition itself is satisfied. for the cases where COV >17.4% where the
minimum achieved cube compressive strength
7. should not be less than certain ratio of the Journal of Structural Division, Vol. 105,
characteristic strength. This ratio depends on ST4, pp. 713-727 (1979).
the strength level and both the bias and [10] L. Grant, S. Mirza, and J. MacGregor,
coefficient of variation. "Monte Carlo Study of Strength of
Concrete Columns", ACI Journal, August
Acknowledgment pp. 348-358 (1978).
[11] S. Tabsh, and A. Aswad, "Statistics of
The strength data in this study have been High-Strength Concrete Cylinders ", ACI
collected and analyzed during the years 2001 Materials Journal, Vol. 94 (5), pp. 361-
through 2003. The author would like to thank 364 (1997).
the construction companies and contractors [12] A. Nowak, and K. Collins, "Reliability of
for providing the data. The author respects Structures," McGraw Hill Inc., N.Y.
their request to stay anonymous. (2000)
[13] D. Verma, and M. Moses, "Calibration of
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