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DCF Analysis
Valuation Date: 13 March, 2019
1 Base Case
2 Management Case
3 Upside Case
4 Downside Case (I)
5 Downside Case (II)
Upside Case
Eicher Motors Ltd
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
(Rs in crores except per share figures, fiscal year ending March 31)
Operating Scenario 3
Mid-year Convention (Y/N) Y
Historical Period
2015-16 2016-17
Sales - -
% growth NA NA
COGS - -
Gross Profit - -
% margin - -
SG&A - -
EBITDA - -
% margin - -
Depreciation & Amortisation - -
EBIT - -
% margin - -
Taxes - -
EBIAT - -
Enterprise Value
Cumulative Present Value of FCF -
Terminal Value -
Discount Factor 0.65
Present Value of Terminal Value -
% of Enterprise Value -%
Enterprise Value -
Enterprise Value
Terminal Growth Rate
- 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
9.0%
WACC
9.5%
WACC
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
Historical Period
Assumptions 2015-16 2016-17
Sales (% growth) NA NA
COGS (% sales) #DIV/0!
SG&A (% sales) #DIV/0!
Depreciation & Amortization (% sales) #DIV/0!
Capital Expenditures (% sales) 6.5%
Tax Rate #DIV/0!
Working Capital (% sales) -%
Enterprise Value
Terminal Growth Rate
- 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
9.0%
9.5%
WACC
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
Options/Warrants
Number of Exercise In-the-Money
Tranche Shares Price Shares Proceeds
Options 1 - - - -
Options 2 - - - -
Options 3 - - - -
Options 4 - - - -
Options 5 - - - -
Total - - -
2
3
4
5
- -
- -
- -
- -
0.5 1.5
0.95 0.87
- -
WACC
10.0% #DIV/0!
10.5% #DIV/0!
11.0% #DIV/0!
e Implied Equity V
Growth Rate
3.5% 4.0% - 2.0%
9.0%
9.5%
WACC
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
ce PV of Terminal Value as % of
Growth Rate
3.5% 4.0% -% 2.0%
9.0%
9.5%
WACC
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
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Projection Period CAGR
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 ('18/19 - '23/24)
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Implied EV/EBITDA -
Projection Period
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
-% -% -%
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Term CF -
g #DIV/0!
wacc 10.0%
TV #DIV/0!
-
Eicher Motors Ltd
Working Capital Analysis
(Rs in crores except per share figures, fiscal year ending March 31)
Historical Period
2015-16 2016-17
Sales - -
Cost of Goods Sold - -
Current Assets
Accounts Receivable - -
Inventories - -
Prepaid Expenses and Other - -
Total Current Assets - -
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable - -
Accrued Liabilities - -
Other Current Liabilities - -
Total Current Liabilities - -
(Increase)/Decrease in NWC -
Assumptions
Days Sales Outstanding - -
Days Inventory Held - -
Prepaids and Other CA (% of sales) 0.0% 0.0%
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
-% -% -% -% -%
- - - - -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
-% -%
- -
2.0 2.0
30.0 30.0
10.0% 10.0%
90.0 90.0
2.0% 2.0%
8.0% 8.0%
Eicher Motors Ltd
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
(Rs in crores except per share figures, fiscal year ending March 31)
WACC Calculation
Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 0.0% Company
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 100.0% Bajaj Auto
0.0% Eicher Motors
Cost of Debt Hero Motocorp
Pre-tax Cost of Debt 10.0% TVS Motor Co
Tax Rate 30.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.0%
Monthly Weig
0.31
0.30
WACC Sensitivity
Pre-tax Cost of Debt
₹0.1 11.0% 11.5%
-10.0%
Debt to Total
0.0%
Cap
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
0.2384 0.3633
Beta
Debt/ Marginal Unlevered
Equity Tax Rate Beta
0.2% 30.0% 0.41
0.0% 30.0% 0.24
0.3% 30.0% 0.36
10.0% 30.0% 0.22
2.6% 0.31
0.2% 0.30
a
Target Target
Debt/ Marginal Relevered
Equity Tax Rate Beta
0.0% 30.0% 0.31
% chg - % chg
(9.41%)
(12.47%)
2.48%
2.34%
(2.75%)
(1.63%)
10.21%
(6.56%)
(5.87%)
(11.99%)
7.77%
(9.05%)
(2.27%)
(9.59%)
7.59%
(0.97%)
10.08%
8.84%
3.71%
5.99%
2.02%
8.53%
15.13%
0.49%
11.00%
7.13%
(3.64%)
(8.56%)
11.82%
12.21%
11.76%
(5.74%)
8.73%
(10.99%)
(0.93%)
20.38%
(8.25%)
0.85%
(5.60%)
15.63%
15.41%
2.86%
(6.03%)
(2.50%)
2.50%
1.06%
(10.69%)
(5.21%)
(9.69%)
14.81%
17.12%
(11.56%)
13.69%
22.23%
26.61%
(9.35%)
24.90%
36.37%
(1.75%)
12.91%
10.68%
2.30%
38.72%
7.88%
37.72%
20.23%
(1.61%)
(5.18%)
(8.50%)
(6.39%)
18.73%
(15.99%)
(12.31%)
4.78%
7.31%
1.04%
(8.75%)
9.30%
2.11%
3.98%
7.36%
(17.20%)
0.00%
(13.23%)
(9.91%)
0.87%
(12.24%)
(13.69%)
12.63%
10.32%
11.84%
(8.01%)
(0.92%)
(3.82%)
(5.85%)
18.16%
(6.98%)
(22.98%)
(13.46%)
11.84%
2.10%
0.59%
2.27%
16.40%
14.79%
7.92%
17.12%
17.06%
(4.48%)
13.92%
12.65%
6.49%
(14.85%)
30.89%
(17.98%)
30.56%
0.89%
35.39%
45.64%
17.25%
TVS Motor Co 0
0.2023 #VALUE!
0.1525 NA
0.1510 #VALUE!
0.2320 #VALUE!
0.2320 #VALUE!
Eicher Motors Ltd
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
(Rs in crores except per share figures, fiscal year ending March 31)
Trad
Current Shares Market Market
Company Market Price O/s Capitalisation Value of Debt
Eicher Motors ₹22,661.0 0 - -
Bajaj Auto 3,012.9 28.9 87,182.8 120.8
Hero Motocorp 2,813.0 20.0 56,175.6 227.9
TVS Motor Co 498.2 47.5 23,667.1 6,927.5
Mean
Median
Peer Per
FY18 LTM
26,377.2 31,116.0
14.7% NA
5,993.9 6,620.9
22.7% 21.3%
3,931.3 4,352.1
14.9% 14.0%
9,250.8 8,324.3
-2.3% NA
4,111.4 5,757.0
28.0% NA
1,821.2 1,779.8
-6.3% NA
20,425.2 20,385.2
120.8 -
0.7% NA
792.7 518.1
FY18 LTM
16,439.9
30.2% NA
1,642.1
10.0% -
664.2
4.0% -
6,372.9
161.8% NA
7,853.1
144.7% NA
2,955.5
26.9% NA
2,677.2
20.8% NA
6,927.5
428.5% NA
172.9
Eicher Motors Ltd
Assumption Page 1: Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement
(Rs in crores except per share figures, fiscal year ending March 31)
Operating Scenario 3
Historical Period
2015-16 2016-17
SG&A (% sales)
Base 1
Management 2
Upside 3
Downside 1 4
Downside 2 5
25.0% 25.0%
17.0% 17.0%
20.0% 20.0%
25.0% 25.0%
12.0% 12.0%
10.0% 10.0%
50.0% 50.0%
55.0% 55.0%
53.0% 53.0%
50.0% 50.0%
57.0% 57.0%
60.0% 60.0%
15.0% 15.0%
15.0% 15.0%
15.0% 15.0%
15.0% 15.0%
17.0% 17.0%
17.0% 17.0%
2.5% 2.5%
2.5% 2.5%
2.5% 2.5%
2.5% 2.5%
2.5% 2.5%
2.5% 2.5%
4.0% 4.0%
4.5% 4.5%
4.0% 4.0%
4.0% 4.0%
5.0% 5.0%
5.5% 5.5%
Projection Period
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Operating Scenario 3
Historical Period
2015-16 2016-17
Current Assets
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
Base 1
Management 2
Upside 3
Downside 1 4
Downside 2 5
Current Liabilities
Days Payable Outstanding
Base 1
Management 2
Upside 3
Downside 1 4
Downside 2 5
2.0 2.0
2.5 2.5
2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
3.0 3.0
3.0 3.0
30.0 30.0
30.0 30.0
30.0 30.0
30.0 30.0
30.0 30.0
30.0 30.0
10.0% 10.0%
10.0% 10.0%
10.0% 10.0%
10.0% 10.0%
10.0% 10.0%
10.0% 10.0%
90.0 90.0
75.0 75.0
80.0 80.0
90.0 90.0
75.0 75.0
75.0 75.0
2.0% 2.0%
2.0% 2.0%
2.0% 2.0%
2.0% 2.0%
2.0% 2.0%
2.0% 2.0%
8.0% 8.0%
8.0% 8.0%
8.0% 8.0%
8.0% 8.0%
8.0% 8.0%
8.0% 8.0%
Projection Period
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
ASSETS
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
(a) Property, plant and equipment
(b) Capital work-in-progress
(c) Investment property
(d) Intangible assets
(e) Intangible assets under development
(f) Investment in joint venture
(h) Financial assets
(i) Loans
(ii) Other non-current financial assets
(g) Deferred tax assets (net)
(h) Tax assets (net)
(i) Other non-current assets
TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS
CURRENT ASSETS
(a) Inventories
(b) Financial assets
(i) Investment
(ii) Trade receivables
(iii) Cash and cash equivalents
(iv) Bank balance (other than (ii) above)
(v) Loans
(vi) Other current financial assets
(c) Other current assets
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
EQUITY
(a) Equity share capital
(b) Other equity
TOTAL EQUITY
LIABILITIES
NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
(a) Financial liabilities
(i) Other financial liabilities
(b) Provisions
(c) Deferred tax liabilities (net)
(d) Tax liabilities (net)
(e) Other non-current liabilities
TOTAL NON-CURRENT
CURRENT LIABILITIES LIABILITIES
- - -
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tion (V + VI) - - -
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Projection Period CAGR
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 ('18/19 - '23/24)
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