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Market Update
Monthly Sales &
Price Statistics
April 2019
01 Why we should be
concerned: 02 Why we shouldn’t blow it
out of proportion:
• Sales falling on monthly and annual basis • Economy is still growing & most people have jobs
• Price growth has slowed significantly • Affordability might IMPROVE! Rates helping!
• Buyer demand has softened • Most people still WANT to be homeowners
• Market less competitive for your sellers • Ways for YOU to impact YOUR bottom line
• No impending doom on horizon of leading data
03 Why homeownership
matters so much
2019: Tough year, but lots of volume out there.
Selling homeownership can help create more!
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
page
2
Let’s nerd out for a
minute.
Economic fundamentals remain solid
GPD 3.2%
2019-Q1
Unemployment 3.8%
March 2019
Consumption 1.2%
2019-Q1
Job Growth 1.7%
March 2019
Core CPI 2.0%
March 2019
Kern 10.1%
14
US California Fresno 9.4%
Stanislaus 7.5%
12
Santa Barbara 4.9%
10 Riverside 4.7%
Los Angeles 4.4%
8 Sacramento 4.3%
San Diego 3.7%
6 Napa 3.5%
Contra Costa 3.5%
4 Alameda 3.3%
Orange 3.2%
2 Santa Clara 2.9%
San Francisco 2.6%
0 San Mateo 2.4%
Sep-76
Sep-78
Sep-80
Sep-82
Sep-86
Sep-88
Sep-90
Sep-92
Sep-94
Sep-96
Sep-98
Sep-00
Sep-02
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-14
Sep-16
Sep-18
Sep-84
Sep-12
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
120
100
INDEX, 100=1985
80
60
40
20
0
SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 5Yr ARM, Fed Funds Rate (Target Rate)
SOURCE: Freddie Mac, St. Louis Fed
page
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 7
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-4%
-5%
-3%
-2%
-1%
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
#affordability
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Losing competitive edge?
Apr-14
California
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
U.S.
Apr-15
CA vs. US Job Growth
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-19
08
page
How about Housing?
Sales Had Smallest YTY
Decline since July 2018
700,000
California, April 2019 Sales: 396,090 Units, -7.4% YTD, -5.0% YTY
600,000
Apr-18: Apr-19:
416,750 396,090
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
-4%
-4.1%
-5%
S.F. Bay
Area, 19% -6%
Southern
California,
48% -7%
-7.1%
-8%
Central S.F. Bay Southern Central Other
Valley Area California Coast Counties
$2,000k+ 4.3%
$600,000
$500,000
T: Feb-09
$400,000 $245,230
-59% from
peak
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
$500,000
$400,000
Median Price
Apr-18: Apr-19:
$476,010 $470,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Jan-05
Nov-05
Feb-07
Jan-10
Nov-10
Feb-12
Jan-15
Nov-15
Feb-17
Sep-06
Sep-11
Sep-16
Jul-07
Dec-07
Jul-12
Dec-12
Jun-05
May-08
Oct-08
Jun-10
Oct-13
Jul-17
Dec-17
Jun-15
Apr-06
Mar-09
May-13
Aug-09
Apr-11
Mar-14
May-18
Oct-18
Aug-14
Apr-16
Mar-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
17
Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
No Impending Collapse Evident
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jul-12
Apr-17
Oct-12
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jul-18
Oct-18
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-18
Apr-19
Listing Price Sales Price
50%
10%
0% 0%
-10%
-50%
-20%
-30%
-100%
-40%
-150% -50%
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Dec-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Sep-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Mar-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Mar-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
21
Demand issues
at play
Is It a Good Time to Buy or Sell?
Do you think it’s a good time to buy a Do you think it’s a good time to sell a
home in California? home in California?
57% 56%
51% 53%
48% 50% 48%
46% 45%
Annual Quarterly
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED
70%
50%
HOME
40%
CA, 32%
30%
20%
10%
0%
50%
40%
32%
30%
20%
10%
10%
0%
$60,000 $52,720
$40,000 $30,280
$20,000
$0
Retail Chefs and Firefighters Elementary Police and Computer Registered Software Min. Inc
Salespersons Head Cooks School Sherriff's Programmers Nurses Developers Required to
Teachers Patrol Officers (Applications) Buy a Med.
Home
70
60
DAYS ON MARKET
50
40
30
20
10
10
0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Apr-18 Apr-19
98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
96%
94%
92%
90%
101.5%
101.0%
100.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
99.6%
99.5%
99.0% 98.9%
98.5%
98.0%
97.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Apr-18 Apr-19
10/1/2011
10/1/2012
10/1/2013
10/1/2014
10/1/2015
10/1/2016
10/1/2017
10/1/2018
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
1/1/2017
4/1/2017
7/1/2017
1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018
1/1/2019
4/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
6% -0.05%
4% -0.10%
2% -0.15%
0% -0.20%
-2% -0.25%
-4% -0.30%
16.0
April 2018: 3.2 Months; April 2019: 3.4 Months
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
30%
20%
10.8%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
20% 18.8%
16.1% 16.3%
10.8%
10% 8.6%
5.7%
0%
-0.3%
-10%
20,000
Active Listings
15,000
9,165 9,801
10,000
7,220
5,338
5,000
2,423 2,581
0
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
30%
Year-to-Year % Chg
20%
10% 8.9%
6.9% 6.5%
0%
-1.0% -1.2% -0.4%
-4.1%
-10%
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
YTY% Chg.
10%
3%
5%
2%
0%
1%
-5%
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jul-18
Oct-18
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
0%
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-19
Jan-15
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-5%
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Two Months in a Row
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Price Growth
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Mortgage Payment Declined
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Mortgage Pmt Growth
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Mar-19
Apr-19
41
page
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales
0%
2%
4%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
2nd Consecutive Month
Pending Sales Grow For
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales
Mar-19
Apr-19
42
page
Let’s talk
homeownership.
#0: our bread and butter
CA, March 2019 Sales: 397,210 Units, -8.2% YTD, -6.3% YTY
700,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
$120
$100 $97.3
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
page
45
#1: wealth creation
U.S. Median Net Worth
300
250 $231.4
200
150
100
50
$5.0
0
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Owner Renter or other
2007
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Median Price Median Rent
250
200
150
0
1991
2007
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
page
48
#3: better individual outcomes
“Children of homeowners
are significantly more likely
to stay in school until age
”
17 than children of
renters…”
- Journal of Urban Economics
-4%
-5%
-3%
-2%
-1%
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
#affordability
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
California
Jul-14
#6: losing competitive edge?
Oct-14
Jan-15
U.S.
Apr-15
CA vs. US Job Growth
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-19
53
page
the punchline
Nonfarm Job Growth 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3%
Real Disposable Income, % Change -1.4% 2.7% 3.4% 2.7% 2.1% 2.8% 2.6%
SFH Resales (000s) 414.9 382.7 409.4 417.7 424.9 402.8 375.1
Median Price ($000s) $407.2 $446.9 $476.3 $502.3 $537.9 $570.0 $568.8
Housing Affordability
36% 30% 31% 31% 29% 28% 26%
Index
page
SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 56
Conclusion
Putting it All Together