Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
CONTENTS
1 Introduction
2 North America
Europe
3 Latin America
Africa
Marsh • 1
North America
The Democrats’ capture of the House of Representatives in the Trade tariffs and geopolitical disputes with China could escalate
2018 mid-term elections is likely to lead to a more combative in 2019, bringing the risk of further Chinese retaliation and
US political landscape in 2019. It has already seen the longest US counter-retaliation. In addition, Trump's re-imposition of
shutdown of government in American history. A more activist sanctions on Iran in November 2018 risks generating a tougher
House could launch investigations into perceived wrongdoings stance by Tehran, potentially raising the risk of conflict, or the
by President Trump or others. Candidates are already start of a new rapprochement.
announcing for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination
while, with a divided Congress likely to hold up policy formation Another focus will be to ensure that the rapprochement
and enactment, President Trump’s focus is likely to center on with North Korea remains on track. In Washington,
foreign policy, where the executive has more leeway than on meanwhile, the ongoing investigations into President
domestic policy. Trump’s alleged ties with Moscow might prevent him
from undertaking initiatives that could improve bilateral
relations with Russia, Fitch Solutions noted.
Europe
The UK's politics in 2019 and beyond will remain focused on
Brexit negotiations and subsequent transition period out of the FIGURE Europe: Changes in Short-Term
EU. Brexit aside, the EU will be in a state of transition in 2019 as it
prepares for parliamentary elections in May and new presidents 1 Political Risk Score
SOURCE: FITCH SOLUTIONS
of the European Commission and European Central Bank, and
European Council, in November and December respectively.
In Spain, the People’s Party government of Prime Minister As a result, Fitch Solutions lowered Spain’s short-term
Mariano Rajoy collapsed in June, and was replaced by a political risk index (STPRI) from 68.3 in 2018 to 64.6 in
minority socialist administration with very little parliamentary 2019, the largest reduction in the continent. A lower STPRI
support. There was also continued unrest in Catalonia. score represents decreased stability and is one piece
of Fitch Solutions’ overall political risk index score.
Key
<49 50–59 60–69 70–79 80–100
Unstable Stable
Marsh • 3
FIGURE Political Risk Map 2019
4 SOURCE: FITCH SOLUTIONS
Svalbard
(Norway)
Greenland
(Denmark)
Alaska (USA)
Russia
Finland
Canada Iceland
Norway Sweden
Faroe Islands
(Denmark)
Estonia
Latvia
United Denmark Lithuania
Kingdom Kaliningrad (RU)
Isle of Man
Belarus
Ireland Poland
Netherlands Germany
Belgium Mongolia
Czech Rep. Ukraine Kazakhstan
Luxembourg
Slovakia
Austria
France Liechtenstein Hungary Moldova
Switzerland Slovenia
Croatia Romania North Korea
South Korea
Japan
North Macedonia
Portugal Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Tajikistan
China
Spain Turkmenistan
Greece Turkey
Republic Rwanda
of the Congo
Burundi Seychelles Timor-Leste
Peru Cabinda (Angola)
Tanzania Samoa
Vanuatu
Brazil Comoros Fiji Tonga
Angola Mayotte (France)
Malawi Mozambique
Bolivia Zambia
New Caledonia (France)
Australia
Madagascar
Zimbabwe Mauritius
Paraguay Namibia Reunion (France)
Botswana
Eswatini
Lesotho
South Africa
Argentina
Uruguay
Country Risk Index Chile
New Zealand
80–100 70–79 60–69 50–59 < 49 No Data
Stable Unstable
Based on data and insight from Fitch Solutions, the Political Risk
Map 2019 provides country risk scores for more than 200
countries and territories. The overall risk scores are based on
three categories of risk — political, economic, and operational —
Falkland Islands (UK)
To view an interactive version of Marsh’s
and reflect both short- and long-term threats to stability. Political Risk Map 2019, visit marsh.com
Marsh • 7
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Drawing on data and insight from Fitch Solutions, a leading
source of independent political, macroeconomic, financial,
and industry risk analysis, Marsh’s Political Risk Map 2019
presents a global view of the issues facing multinational
organizations and investors. This map rates countries on the
basis of political and economic stability, giving insight into
where risks may be most likely to emerge and issues to be
aware of in each country.
ABOUT MARSH
A global leader in insurance broking and innovative risk
management solutions, Marsh’s 30,000 colleagues advise
individual and commercial clients of all sizes in over
130 countries. Marsh is a wholly owned subsidiary of
Marsh & McLennan Companies (NYSE: MMC), the leading
global professional services firm in the areas of risk, strategy
and people. With annual revenue over US$14 billion and
nearly 65,000 colleagues worldwide, MMC helps clients
navigate an increasingly dynamic and complex environment
through four market-leading firms. In addition to Marsh,
MMC is the parent company of Guy Carpenter, Mercer, and
Oliver Wyman. Follow Marsh on Twitter @MarshGlobal;
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For further information, please contact your local Marsh office or visit our website at marsh.com.
The information contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable and should be understood to be general risk management and insurance information only. The information is not intended to
be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such.
In the United Kingdom, Marsh Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.