Outline

1 Title
2 Abstract
3 Introduction
3.1 Dengue fever
3.2 Dengue fever in Baguio City, Phils
4 The SIR Model for Dengue fever
4.1 Parameters (plus assumptions)
4.2 Model
4.3 Equilibrium Points
5 Results and Discussions
5.1 Numerical result of the Model in Baguio City
5.2 Breeding rate, R_0
6 Conclusion
7 Recommendation
8 Appendix
9 References

1 SIR Model for Dengue Fever Transmission in Baguio City Philippines

Bautista, Corpuz, Gaceta, Mallari, Tomas

November 2015

Prof Joel Addawe

Professor, MATH 197

2 ABSTRACT

3 INTRODUCTION

Dengue Fever is one of the fast emerging viral disease that thrives in many parts of the world.
According to the World Health Organization [1] , the disease is now endemic to more than 100
countires, of which the South-East Asia and Western Pacific as the most seriously afffected. One
recent estimate shows 390 million dengue infections per year (95% credible interval 284-528
million) [2].
 Dengue is transmitted to humans by female mosquitoes mainly of species Aedes Aegypti and Aedes
Albopictus, and it exists in two forms: Dengue Fever (DF) or classic dengue and the Dengue
Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF). Also, dengue is caused by four distinct serotypes namely, DEN1, DEN2,
DEN3, and DEN4. This disease is widely spread throughout the tropical regions, mostly in urban and
semi-urban areas.

In the Philippines, Dengue is a growing health concern since the first epidemic in Southeast Asia
occured in Manila in 1954. In October of 2015, the country’s Department of Health (DOH)
Epidemiology Bureau reported that there are recorded 92, 807 dengue cases from the period of
January to Saptember of the same year. This is 23.5 percent higher than the dengue case in the
same period in 2014. In particular, Baguio City had a 16 percent increase of cases [3].

Over the decades, there have been a lot of studies of the transmission dynamics of dengue fever, of
which uses mathematical models that are compartmentalized with Susceptibles, Infectives, and
Removed. In this paper, the SIR model proposed by Derouich et al [4] is adopted. The model will be
analyzed numerically. Simulations will be conducted on actual data of dengue cases and will be
compared to the theoretical results. The data on actual data was retrieved from the Baguio City
Epidemiology Services Unit. The main goal of this paper is to present the reader the actuality of the
model particulary in Baguio City.

4 SIR Model for Dengue Fever

9 REFERENCES

[1] WHO. Dengue and severe dengue. Retrieved from: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs117/en/

[2] Bhatt S, Gething PW, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Farlow AW, Moyes CL et.al. The global distribution and burden of
dengue. Nature;496:504-507
[3] CNN Philippines. Dengue cases rise in 3 Cordillera provinces, Baguio city. Retrived from:
http://cnnphilippines.com/regional/2015/07/01/dengue-cases-cordillera-region-baguio-city.html
[4] Derouich, M., Boutayeb, A., and Twizell, E.H. A model of dengue fever. Brunel University, England. (2003).