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Importance of the Continuing Value
Forecast Horizon
Growth Rates
Base‐Year Cash Flows
FCFt
VF = t=1
(1+r) t
• In practice, we forecast cash flows on a finite
horizon and then add a continuing value
estimate:
FCFt CVF,C
VF = t=1
C
t
+ C
(1+r) (1+ r)
• The impact of continuing value on firm value depends on
how many years one forecasts explicit cash flows, the
growth rate in cash flows and the cost of capital.
– Assuming an infinite life is almost equivalent to assuming
something like 50 – 70 years in many valuations.
• This method uses the present value of an infinite
stream of cash flows assuming a constant growth
rate and a constant discount rate:
1
CVF,C = FCFC+1 ×
(r g)
Lecture 10 --- Corporate Valuation
Copyright Vincent Glode
Choosing a Continuing Value Date
• We need the “base‐year” cash flow to be positive and expect it to
grow at a constant rate in perpetuity.
– Mature company where growth rate can be tied to inflation, population
growth, or real productivity gains
• US Inflation since 1950: 3.7%
• Current world population growth: 1.1%
• US Real GDP growth since 1950: 3.2%
• We need to use a constant discount rate. The risk of the company,
which drives the discount rate, must be stable.
• The base‐year FCF should have the firm earning modest or zero
returns in excess of its cost of capital, unless we think it has a
competitive advantage that lasts forever.
• The base‐year FCF should imply a sensible long‐run CAPEX to
Depreciation ratio.
Lecture 10 --- Corporate Valuation
Copyright Vincent Glode
Firm’s Situation at CV date
The “road” to the continuing value date affects the
continuing value calculation. Continuing value should be
consistent with the strategy implicit in the explicit cash
flow forecast:
◦ Example: If plant is run down prior to continuing value date, the
continuing value should reflect poor facilities.
◦ Be careful to avoid using high growth assumption which might
exist now, in a continuing value calculation that occurs after
explicit forecast of high growth period.
Simple Trick: Keep forecasting yearly cash flows until
financial ratios and FCF growth have been stable for a
few years!
1. Firm “size” cannot grow at a rate higher than the nominal
growth rate of the economy in which it operates forever
(but it can be lower).
2. A stable growth firm should generate a return on capital
very close to industry average and to the cost of capital.
3. Expected growth rate of FCF should be close to:
Reinvestment rate (net of excess cash) * Return on
capital.
Lecture 10 --- Corporate Valuation
Copyright Vincent Glode
PV Weighted Average Growth Rate
• A useful computation to summarize your assumptions
about a company value is by using the PV‐Weighted
Average Growth rate.
• Need to know the value of the firm and the base year cash
flow has to be positive.
• Depreciation expense is unlikely to be constantly growing
with lumpy CAPEX.
– Apple’s depreciation expenses were $11.3B in 2015, $7.9B in 2014, $6.8B in
2013, and $3.3B in 2012
• Productivity gains can reduce ratio of CAPEX to
depreciation over time.
– Apple’s revenues were $233.7B in 2015, $182.8B in 2014, $170.9B in 2013,
and $156.5B in 2012.
• Problem: UFCF never evens out.
• If run model for 200 years (easy to do) and discount UFCF
at 10%, firm value is 816.
• If we choose compute continuing value using earlier cash
flows, it creates errors.
• How can you more easily measure the value?
• Convert the cyclical time‐series into an annuity (or an
annuity with growth if FCF and the CAPEX cycle are
growing at a constant rate)
NEXT WEEK: End‐of‐chapter problem 5.6 and Q&A about
exam on Monday; exam in class on Wednesday.
Lecture 10 --- Corporate Valuation
Copyright Vincent Glode