INFERENTIAL STATISTICS AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Statistics is not only concerned with describing a set of data through observations and experiments. The heart
of statistics is actually the creation of inferences or meaningful generalizations about a given set of data or population.
This can be done by carefully observing the behaviour of every member of the population- a procedure that in actual
practice is not feasible, especially when the population is too large or inaccessible. Since you know that small sample
are related to the population, the, valid inferences can be made using only the observations from these samples. This
process of making generalizations about the characteristics of the entire population through sample statistics is called
hypothesis testing.

Generally, a hypothesis is a tentative presupposition or an inference made in order to predict the occurrence of
a phenomenon. Specifically, a statistical hypothesis is a claim about the value of a population parameter or about the
values of several population parameters. For instance, a teacher is given a large group of 230 students. Observing the
heights of the students, the teacher claims that the average height of the students is 167 cm. This claim is called a
hypothesis. In hypothesis testing, one formulates a claim about the entire population and then validates this claim by
studying cases from a few samples. The goal, then, is to identify the likelihood that a population parameter is true, using
only a sample statistic, such as the sample mean.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Hypothesis testing is a systematic process following a four-step procedure that includes the following:

1. State the hypothesis to be tested. The first step in hypothesis testing involves the statement of the claim that
you want to test. For instance, you want to validate the claim that the mean number of hours of sleep of college students
is 5 hours.

2. Set the standard that describes whether the claim is true or not. For example, in order to validate the claim
that the mean number of hours of sleep of college students is 5. Then majority of the chosen samples should have a
mean number of hours of sleep that is equal to or close to 5. This is the criterion.

3. Compute the test statistic. After the sample is selected, compute the test statistic, which is usually the mean.
For instance, choose 20 college students at random and compute the mean number of hours they sleep every day.

4. Make the decision. This step involves comparing the mean of the chosen sample of 20 students to be
expected mean number of hours of sleep of all college students. For example, if the sample mean is close to the
parameter, accept the validity of hypothesis. On the contrary, if a huge discrepancy is observed, the validity of the
hypothesis is refuted.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses

In any hypothesis testing procedure, you will always deal with two contradictory hypotheses. The first of these
is a statement of the value to which the population parameter is equal, such as the mean, which is presumed to be true.
This called the null hypothesis, denoted by 𝐻𝑜 .
On the other hand, the assertion that contradicts the null hypothesis is called alternative hypothesis. The
alternative hypothesis, denoted as 𝐻𝑎 , describes that the population parameter differs from the population parameter
predicted in the null hypothesis. For instance, in the same example of testing the claim that the mean number of hours
of sleep of college students is 5, the null and alternative hypotheses, respectively are the following:
𝐻𝑜 : The mean of the number of hours of sleep of college students is equal to 5.
𝐻𝑎 : The mean of number of sleep of college students is not equal to 5.
 The null hypothesis is a statement that asserts the value to which the population parameter is equal and is presumed to be true. The
alternative hypothesis, on the other hands, is a statement that negates the null hypothesis.
Example 1:
Tell whether the following statement is a null or alternative hypothesis:
‘The mean general weighted average (GWA) of college students in a particular university is 84.8’

SOLUTION:
The statement ‘The mean general weighted average (GWA) of college students in a particular university is
84.8’ is an example of a null hypothesis because it describes a value that is equal to the population parameter.
The related alternative hypothesis can be stated as:
a) The mean GWA of college students in a particular university is not equal to 84.8.
b) The mean GWA of college students in a particular university is greater than 84.8.
c) The mean GWA of college students in a particular university is less than 84.8.
Directional Versus Nondirectional Test.
The appropriateness of these phrases depends on the design of the hypothesis test - either be one – tailed or
two – tailed. Also known as the nondirectional test, the two-tailed test is the standard test used in many researches and
it compares the population parameter in both directions (left and right) of the bell curve. On the other hand, the
directional test, which is also called the one-tailed test, is a test that determines the relationship between the variables
in only one direction, either the left or the right tail of the bell curve.

Example 2:
The alternative hypothesis ‘The mean GWA of college students in a particular university is not equal to 84.8.’
given in the previous example illustrates a non-directional hypothesis test.
Under a directional test, the alternative hypothesis can be stated as ‘The mean GWA of college students in a
particular university is greater than 84.8’ (right tailed) or The mean GWA of college students in a particular university
is less than 84.8’(left tailed).
One - tailed Two - tailed
1. 𝐻𝑜 : 𝜇𝑜 = 𝜇 𝐻𝑜 : 𝜇𝑜 = 𝜇
𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇𝑜 < 𝜇 ( left tailed) or 𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇𝑜 ≠ 𝜇
𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇𝑜 > 𝜇 (right tailed)
2. 𝐻𝑜 : 𝜇𝑜 ≥ 𝜇
𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇𝑜 < 𝜇 ( left tailed)
3. 𝐻𝑜 : 𝜇𝑜 ≤ 𝜇
𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇𝑜 > 𝜇 (right tailed)

The level of significance

The next step in hypothesis testing after the statement of the hypotheses is the setting of the standard or
criterion on which the decision will be based.
Apparently, there are only two possible decisions to make in the process of hypothesis testing – either
‘reject 𝐻𝑜 ′’ or ‘fail to reject 𝐻𝑜 ′. This decision to reject or to fail to rejectr the null hypothesis is called significance and
it should be based on a set criterion of judgment called the level of significance, denoted the Greek lower case alpha
𝛼. This criterion on which the decision is made is actually based on the likelihood (probability) of obtaining a sample
statistic from the population assuming that the null hypothesis is true. in general statisticians arbitrarily set the
commonly used levels of significance – 1%, 5%, and 10%. Significance is reached when the p-value (probability
value) of obtaining the sample statistic is less than the ser level of significance. For example, when using the 5% level
of significance, the significance is reached and thus, the null hypothesis is rejected when the p-value is less than 0.05.
Otherwise, the decision is not to reject the null hypothesis.

The Rejection Region

To clarify the rejection or retention of the null hypothesis, a critical region or rejection region must be defined.
After the level of significance for the hypothesis test is set, the researcher now computes the test statistics. When the
computed test statistic falls within a specified range of values allowable for the test, the null hypothesis is rejected. This
range of values for the sample statistic that indicates when the null hypothesis should be rejected is called the
rejection region. The critical region is based on a value called the critical value, which is usually determined using
appropriated distribution table based on the test statistic.

Decision Errors in Hypothesis Testing

The last step in hypothesis testing is the decision to reject or not to reject the null hypothesis. Since not all
members of the population are considered in the process of verifying the null hypothesis, it is always a possibility that
the decision to reject or not to reject the null hypothesis is wrong.
Generally, the decision errors committed during hypothesis testing can be classified into two:
1. The decision to reject the null hypothesis could be wrong. This is also known as Type I error.
2. The decision not to reject the null hypothesis could be wrong. This is also known as Type II error.

*Type I and type II errors are analogous to morality. Type I is like abstaining to do something that you know is right, while type II error
is comparable to doing something that you know is wrong.
Of course, you only reject the null hypothesis when it is false and you fail to reject the null hypothesis when it
is true. Doing otherwise would certainly lead to decision error. The table below summarizes the four possible outcomes
when a decision is made in hypothesis testing.
Fail to Reject Reject
Null hypothesis is true. Correct decision Type I error
Null hypothesis is false. Type II error Correct decision
Test Concerning the Population Mean.

Case DECRIPTION Test Statistic

1 A test concerning the mean of a normal population with known variance or z- test
standard deviation
2 A large- sample test concerning the mean of a population (using the central limit z- test
theorem
3 A sample-sample test concerning the mean of a population with unknown t-test
variance.

PROBLEM SOLVING
1. A recent survey says that Filipino children spend an average of 4 hours a day playing computer games with
the standard deviation of 30 min. a random sample of 9 children is taken from a normally distributed
population of children who spend an average of 3.5 hours playing computer games. Using 1% level of
significance, would you conclude that the statement given in the survey is correct.
2. A workout program states that there is an average weight loss of 12 pounds (lb) for those who enrol in the
program for two months. Another workout program advertises greater weight loss after two months, with
standard deviation 2.5 lb. Does the second workout program offer a higher average weight loss effect? Test the
hypothesis at 𝛼 = 0.05.
3. It is assumed that the mean IQ is 𝜇=100. In a study conducted by a researcher, a sample of n=16 people had an
average IQ of 90 with a standard deviation of 15. Is the group significantly different from the regular
population? Use 𝛼 = 0.10,.