Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

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Catena

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Soil erosion risk associated with climate change at Mantaro River basin,
Peruvian Andes
a b, c d e,1
Sly W. Correa , Carlos R. Mello , Sin C. Chou , Nilton Curi , Lloyd D. Norton
a Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
b Soil and Water Engineering, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG, Brazil
c Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais CPTEC/INPE, Brazil
d Soil Science Department, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG, Brazil
e Soil Science Graduate Program, Agronomy Department, Purdue University, United States

article info abstract

Article history: Soil degradation by water erosion has been accelerated by human activities. This process is aggravated in the Andes region
Received 12 June 2015 due to steep slopes, sparse vegetation cover, and sporadic but high intensity rainfall, which together with a shallow soil depth,
Received in revised form 29 June 2016 increases soil erosion risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the soil erosion risk, associated with A1B climate change
Accepted 5 July 2016 Available online
scenario over the twenty-first century, for the Mantaro River basin (MRB), Peruvian Andes. The temporal analyses revealed
xxxx
maintenance of current soil erosion risk along the twen-ty-first century in almost all the MRB, whose current risk is either
“very severe” or “extremely severe”. At the sub-basin level, for those located in the center and northern MRB, progressive
Keywords:
Soil erosion and degradation increases were observed in the average erosion rate by the end of this century, increasing the soil erosion risk. In sub-basins
Global warming under greater influence of the Andes, this risk was classified as “moderate” and remained this way throughout the century,
Tropical Andes despite the in-crease in rainfall erosive potential simulated for these. In annual terms, there was a signi ficant trend of
Soil erosion risk decreasing rainfall erosivity and increasing the concentration of rainfall simulated based on A1B climate change scenario. Be-
GIS cause the A1B scenario affects rainfall erosivity mainly during the rainy season, this causes a risk to the environ-mental
sustainability and future agricultural activities.

© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
According to the German Council on Global Change (WBGU, 1994),
water erosion, is the most important type of soil degradation world-wide,
covering approximately 1.1 billion hectares (56% of the agricultur-al areas of
the world). In addition, the international scientific community recognizes that
soil erosion is a serious environmental problem; however, it is difficult to
determine its magnitude as well as the economic and environmental
consequences, especially under possi-ble future climate changes.
According to Benites et al. (1993), soil erosion in Argentina, Bolivia,
Brazil, Chile, and Paraguay is responsible for an average of 46% of the total
extent of degraded soils by different erosion agents. According to the
Agricultural Land Development Agency of Japan (JALDA, 2003), ag-
ricultural productivity in South America has been decreased due to soil
erosion, which has been accelerating the degradation of natural
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: xinox010@gmail.com (S.W. Correa), crmello@deg.ufla.br
(C.R. Mello), chou@cptec.inpe.br (S.C. Chou), niiltcuri@dcs.ufla.br (N. Curi),
norton@purdue.edu (L.D. Norton).
1 Visiting researcher at Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG, Brazil – CNPq
Scholarship.
resources in this region. The population of South America does not ex-ceed
10% of the world population, but according to FAO/UNESCO (1990), it is
one of the richest regions in terms of natural resources, possessing 14% of
arable land, 46% of tropical forests, 31% of water re-sources, and 50% of
flora and fauna, worldwide.
“The Andes Cordillera” is located in the western South America,
consisting of rugged mountains and very steep relief plateaus. The “Inter-
Andean Valleys” are located among these mountains where agri-cultural
activity has been concentrated. Water erosion in these areas has become a
complex problem causing decrease on topsoil fertility. The present study was
conducted at Mantaro River basin, one of the most productive Peruvian “Inter-
Andean Valley” zones. According to the Geo-physical Institute of Peru (IGP,
2005), the Mantaro River is considered one of the most important rivers of the
Peruvian Andes, due to its capac-ity for electricity generation, and agricultural
and livestock production.
According to Amézquita et al. (1998), Peru is one of the Andean countries
that have presented various problems associated with ero-sion, wherein the
first attempt to assess its occurrence was done by Morales et al. (1977). Since
then, there were the studies from Alegre et al. (1990) to Romero (2005);
however, there has been a scarcity of re-search aimed at evaluating the
character of soil erosion in the country.
Accelerated climate change has been recorded in recent decades. Ac-
cording to the IPCC (2013), the last three decades have been

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.07.003
0341-8162/© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
successively warmer regarding the average global surface temperature. The
increase on temperature has been verified across the planet and has been
greatest at higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This warming trend
from 1956 to 2005 (0.13 [0.10–0.16] °C per decade) is nearly twice that
presented in the last 100 years (1906–2005). This in-dicates a clear
temperature increase trend in recent decades, with 2014 claiming to be the
warmest year since weather records began.
Climate changes are causing more warming at more elevated regions than
at the lower ones due to snow cover loss, which leads to a reduction in albedo
and increase in solar radiation absorption at the surface (Giorgi et al., 1997).
Thus, according to Bradley et al. (2006) and Ramirez et al. (2001), several
modeling and projections studies indicate that many gla-ciers in lower
altitudes of the Andes can disappear completely in the next 20 years, with the
0 °C point displacement to higher altitudes. This situ-ation places Peru in a
highly vulnerable condition, considering that 70% of the tropical mountain
glaciers in the world are located in Peru.
The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), developed by Wischmeier and
Smith (1978), was a pioneer model in an attempt to predict soil erosion, to
produce soil erosion risk mapping, and for supporting soil conservation
practices. Despite the empirical structure used in this model and in its re-vised
version (RUSLE), the model has been applied to basins or regions that have
database restrictions for calibration and validation with other models which
are process based type (Beskow et al., 2009; Oliveira et al., 2014; Durães and
Mello, 2014; Li et al., 2014; Tang et al., 2015).
The RUSLE model contains significant improvements in the estima-tion
of the passive factors associated with soil erosion, especially the to-pographic
factor, and has been applied to study the climate change impacts on soil
erosion (Segura et al., 2014; Mello et al., 2015). RUSLE is a parametric and
empirical model, based on the most relevant vari-ables for the water erosion
process (Renard and Freimund, 1994). This model has been already tested and
validated in various soil, climate, and agronomic management conditions
(Mitasova et al., 1996; Tiwari et al., 2000; Amore et al., 2004; Beskow et al.,
2009; Segura et al., 2014; Li et al., 2014; Oliveira et al., 2014; Tang et al.,
2015; Ochoa et al., 2016). Most of these studies have shown reasonable
performance in the qualitative characterization of the soil erosion risk,
especially when it is integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS),
en-abling consistent improvements in its performance. Despite of limita-tions
with RUSLE, it is possible to highlight a methodological evolution associated
with the topographic factor estimates and the use of a map algebra tool to
overlay the layers of the equation factors (Lu et al., 2004; Zhou et al., 2008;
Kouli et al., 2009; Beskow et al., 2009; Parveen and Kumar, 2012; Rodriguez
and Suarez, 2012; Segura et al., 2014; Tang et al., 2015).
This study aims at offering unique contribution to Mantaro river basin, a
typical basin located in the tropical Andes, whose glaciers are highly
vulnerable to climate change. The basin is part of the headwaters of the
largest river basin in the world, the Amazon River. Despite the dif-ficulty
recognized with some databases due to the lack of minimally in-vestigative
studies or hydro-climatic monitoring, the results of this study have significant
potential to motivate further studies and to alert on the water erosion problem
linked to climate change in one of the most sensitive regions of the world
from both environmental and socio-economic points of view.
It is understood that the capacity of rain to generate erosion is the main
factor affected by climate change, and its simulation shows a rea-sonable
degree of acceptance (Nearing, 2001; Segura et al., 2014; Mello et al., 2015).
In this context, the objective of this study was to assess the soil erosion risk,
at the Mantaro river basin located in the Peruvian Andes.
2. Material and methods
2.1. General characteristics of the Mantaro River basin, Peruvian Andes
The Mantaro River basin (MRB) is located in central Peru, between the
latitudes 10°34′30″S and 13°35′30″S and longitudes 73°55′00″W
111
and 76°40′30″W, with most of its area included into the Peruvian Trop-ical
Andes, making up part of the Amazon River basin (Fig. 1a). MRB has a total
2
area of 34,544 km and has the highest population density of the “Sierra of
Peru” (IGP, 2005). The Mantaro River is of great importance for the country
as it produces 35% of all electric energy as well as its po-tential for
agricultural and livestock production.
In geomorphological terms, MRB is divided into agro-ecological re-gions,
according to IGP (2005), whose names have origin in the Inca's language
Quechua: “Janca” (“white” in reference to the permanent ice on the
mountains), “Puna” (“evil that comes from the mountain”), “Suni” (“wide
land”), “Quechua” (“temperate climate land”), “Yunga” (“hot valley”) and
“Selva Alta” (“high forest”) (Fig. 1d). Throughout the text, we have chosen to
use the names from the original Quechua language to avoid misunderstanding
about their meanings. In addition to this agro-ecological division, MRB can
also be divided into sub-basins, as shown in Fig. 1c. The analyses of the
results will be presented on both spatial scales, agro-ecological regions and
sub-basins, since different im-pacts may be caused given the different altitude
conditions existing in MRB.
Correa (2015) described MRB as part of the Amazon River basin, whose
main spring is in Lake Junín. The first river section flows from Lake Junín up
to the “Pongo de Pahuanca”. The second section flows from “Pongo de
Pahuanca” to the mouth in the Apurimac River, forming the Ene River. In this
section, we have the main Peruvian hydroelectric facilities (“Santiago
Antunez Mayolo” and “Restitución”), known as the “Mantaro Complex”.
2.2. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)
The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is an empirical model to pre-
dict the average annual soil loss generated by rainfall impact and shal-low
flow runoff. According to Farrish et al. (1993), the application of this equation
in steep slope areas has limitations. According to Hoyos (2005); Durães and
Mello (2014), Oliveira et al. (2014) and Mello et al. (2016) the RUSLE is a
more suitable model for watersheds than USLE by providing fundamental
revisions to characterize the LS topo-graphic factor. Thus, the main advantage
is related to adjust the topo-graphic factor for various slope conditions,
considering the contribution from upstream to downstream areas by means of
a flow accumulation map.
The RUSLE is based on USLE equation, with reformulation of the to-
pographic factor estimates according to Renard et al. (1997):
A ¼ R K LS C P ð1Þ
−1 −1
where: A is the average annual soil loss (t ha yr ), R is the average annual
rainfall erosivity (MJ mm ha
−1
h
−1 −1
yr ), K is the soil erodibility factor (t h
−1 −1
MJ mm ), LS corresponds to the dimensionless factors as-sociated with
slope-length and slope-steepness, respectively, C and P are factors of
vegetation cover and soil conservation practices, both dimensionless.
The soil erosion risk was classified according to the criteria adopted by Li
et al. (2014) and Tang et al. (2015), which is shown in Table 1.
2.3. Rainfall erosivity behavior over the twenty-first century at the Mantaro
River basin, Peruvian Andes
In order to calculate rainfall erosivity (R-factor), precipitation data were
simulated with a temporal resolution of 3 h and the average monthly rainfall
were used, in a grid with a spatial resolution of 20 km covering the entire
MRB, a total of 420 points (Fig. 1c). These datasets comprise the
downscaling to 20-km resolution from the global HadCM3 A1B emission
scenario. This is a dynamical downscaling done by the regional climate Eta-
CPTEC model over South America (Chou et al., 2014) for the period of
1961–1990, considered as “present climate”, and for the periods of 2011–
2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, known
112 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

Fig. 1. Location of MRB in the Amazon River basin (a), in Peru (b), grid for downscaling with the ETA-CPTEC/HadCM3 model and sub-basins (c), and agro-ecological regions (d).

as future “time slices” and were available by the “Centro de Previsão do
Tempo e Clima/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacias” (CPTEC/INPE)
(Chou et al., 2014). The climate change scenario, according to Nakicenovic et
al. (2000), describes a rapid economic growth, with little population growth
(it considers that the world population will decrease
from the middle of this century) and development of efficient technol-ogies as
basic references.
The Mantaro River Basin is located in a region of steep
topography and formed by narrow valleys. The use of high
spatial and temporal res-olution simulations of climate is
appropriate in order to capture the
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 113

Table 1 However, the R-factor would be underestimated, as maximum in-tensity

Soil erosion risk classification based on average erosion rate estimated by
RUSLE (Li et al., 2014; Tang et al., 2015).
Soil loss (A)
−1 −1 Erosion risk
(t ha year )
b5 Very low
5–25 Low
25–50 Moderate
50–80 Severe
80–150 Very severe
N150 Extremely severe
precipitation distribution in more detail. Precipitation has received con-
tribution from local orographic effects which have been presented in a coarse
resolution. The 20-km resolution Eta model simulations were the highest
resolution of future climate change projections available at three-hour interval
for the region. This higher temporal frequency is suitable to capture heavy
rainfall rates. In addition, the approximately horizontal surfaces of the vertical
coordinate of the Eta model is suitable to resolve the air circulation around
steep mountains such as the Andes Cordillera, as shown by Figueroa et al.
(1995). The simulations of the present climate produced by the 20-km
resolution Eta-HadCM3 have shown to capture better the extreme rainfall
values, as improvement over the coarser available dataset. This downscaling
at 20-km has been applied to assess the impacts of climate change on the
Brazilian hydropower production (Lima et al., 2014).
It is important to highlight that to estimate the R-factor to run RUSLE it is
necessary long-term rainfall series, at least 20 years (Mello et al., 2013). In
this study, it was taken into account time series of 30 years be-tween 1961 and
1990, in order to estimate more representative values of R-factor.
The R-factor calculation was based on the EI 3h factor since the lowest
temporal resolution simulated was 3 h. For this, the following variables were
analyzed: event duration, accumulated precipitation in the event, average
rainfall intensity per event, rainfall energy per depth of rain, total energy of
the rain, and maximum intensity of rain in 3 consecutive hours. Thus, the
following equations were applied for EI3h calculation (Wischmeier and Smith,
1978):
−1
Ec ¼ 0:1191 þ 0:0873 Log10 It Itb76 mm h
in 3 h is less than 30-minute intensity, as originally recognized by Wischmeier
and Smith (1978). Thus, it is necessary to apply a com-plementary
methodology for estimation of this factor. However, there are no weather
stations with historical series in MRB to enable the study of rainfall erosivity
following its original concept. In this context, we applied a relationship
existing between the Modified Fourier Index (MFIm), calculated with basis on
the average monthly rainfall for each time slice, and the average monthly
rainfall erosivity (Eq. 6). This equation was proposed by Sonder et al. (2002)
for the Colombian Andes and it was applied in this study because of similar
geomorpholog-ical conditions between the two studied regions (both in
Tropical Andes Cordillera).
0:552
Rm ¼ 161 ðMF ImÞ ð6Þ
Thus, for each climate simulation grid point (Fig. 1c), the R-factor was
calculated based on the average between the values generated by Eqs. 5 and 6.
Having estimated the R-factor for each time slice and for each one of the 420
points, R-factor maps were generated based on a geostatistical approach by
ordinary kriging.
In order to analyze the behavior of rainfall erosivity (EI 3h) over time, the
Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945) was applied to statistically analyze if there
is significant trend in these data throughout the century. Fur-thermore, the
Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) for MRB was also evaluated for this
purpose, since it reveals the behavior of rainfall concentration, especially
important for regions with seasonal or semi-arid climate. Its original concept
was developed by Oliver (1980) in an attempt to define the temporal
variability of rainfall distribution. The theoretical limits range from 8.3
(uniform pluvial regime) to 100, if the rainfall is concentrated in a month
(irregular pluvial regime). Ac-cording to Mello et al. (2015), the PCI is
important for analysis of erosive potential of rain, since it can characterize a
more active dynamic effect of climate change on erosive potential of rainfall,
being a complementa-ry index. Its calculation is given by:
12
X
pi2
PCIð%Þ ¼ i¼1 100 ð7Þ
ð2Þ 12
!
2

−1
pi
Ec ¼ 0:283 ItN76 mm h ð3Þ i¼1

−1 −1 where: pi is the precipitation of the month i, in mm, obtained on the basis of

where Ec is the rainfall energy per hectare-mm (MJ ha mm ) and It is the
−1 the weather simulations.
average rainfall intensity (mm h ). The total energy of rainfall during the
−1
period of the storm (Et), in MJ ha , is calculated using the following 2.4. Soil map to determine K-factor for MRB, Peruvian Andes
relationship:
The Leptosols, which predominate in the studied region, are very stony,
Et ¼ Ec P ð4Þ
can be dystrophic (base saturation b 50%) or eutrophic (base sat-uration ≥
50%), have average clay content of 23% and tend to occur mainly in slopes
where: P is the total amount of rain in the event, in mm. varying from 20 to 50% (IGP, 2005). The association of shallow soils and
The R-factor, described by Renard and Freimund (1994), consists of the hilly topography results in very fragile and unstable systems and therefore,
average annual sum of the individual values EI30’ over long periods of time highly vulnerability to erosion.
(minimum 15 years for USLE or RUSLE application). For the con-ditions of The Regosols in this region are medium textured (average clay con-tent of
this study, R-factor was considered, in a first moment, as the average annual 20%), deeper than the Leptosols and occur in various topographic positions
sum of the individual EI3h values, as applied by Vrieling et al. (2010). Thus, (IGP, 2005). They constitute relatively more stable system in comparison with
we have: the Leptosols, with better infiltration capacity (IGP, 2005). They have limited
n m
! agricultural potential, but are effective in groundwater recharge (IGP, 2005).
ðE3hÞi ðI3hÞi
XX The Cambisols, situated at the eastern part of the MRB, are very stony in
the surface, medium textured (average clay content of 17%) and gen-erally
j
R¼ j¼1 i¼1 ð5Þ occur in slopes ranging from 50 to 100% (IGP, 2005). In addition, they are
n
characterized by a shallow depth. Thus, the Cambisols in MRB are very
−1 susceptible to erosion. The natural soil fertility is very low, sometimes with
where: R is expressed in MJ mm (ha h year) , m is the number of in-dividual
high aluminum saturation.
precipitation events in a given year j, and n is the number of years evaluated,
in the present case, 30 years (time slices).
 114 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
The Ministry of Agriculture of Peru (MINAG, 1978) developed an
edaphologic study in areas with good agricultural potential in MRB, known as
“Mantaro River Agricultural Valley” (MRAV). This zone has appropriate soils
and climatic characteristics for agricultural activity, it is located in the middle
part of the basin, with altitudes ranging from 3200 to 3800 m and topography
varying from flat to undulate with smooth gradients of average magnitude,
and an annual rainfall varying between 670 and 895 mm. This study ranked
the MRAV soils into six groups and different sub-groups. Fig. 2a presents the
soil map in groups and sub-groups for MRAV and Fig. 2b, the soil map for
MRB applied in this study.
Tables 2, 3 and 4 show, respectively, particle size distribution and or-ganic
soil matter values for MRAV soils, permeability and soil structure codes,
which allows to an estimate of the K-factor based on the follow-ing equations
(Wischmeier and Smith, 1978).
1:14 ‐4
½ð2:1 M 10 ð12−SOMÞ þ 3:25 ðs −2Þ þ 2:5 ðp−3Þ&
100
0:1318
−1 −1
where: K is the soil erodibility factor (t·h·MJ ·mm ); SOM corre-sponds to
the soil organic matter content (%); s is the soil structure code; p is the soil
permeability code; and M is the factor calculated as the product of the soil
particle size fractions between 0.002 and 0.1 mm, by the following equation:
M ¼ ½100−%clay& ½%silt þ %veryfinesand&
Fig. 2. Soil map in groups and sub-groups for MRAV (a) and the soil map for MRB, Peruvian Andes (b).
2.5. LS-factor for MBR, Peruvian Andes
The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is the basic reference for studies re-
lated to the LS-factor. For the MRB, the DEM was based on “Shuttle Radar
Topographic Mission” images (NASA/SRTM), with a spatial resolution of 30
m, and is presented in Fig. 3a, as well as average annual rainfall isohyets.
Authors such as Moore and Wilson (1992), Hickey et al. (1994), Bolton et
al. (1995), Desmet and Govers (1996), Mitasova et al. (1996) and Biesemans
(1997) developed flow algorithms based on DEMs to deter-mine the
accumulated surface flow length, and therefore, the LS-factor. These new
relationships based on the Unit Stream Power Theory include the influence of
flow convergence and divergence. Thus, the use of algo-rithms associated
with Geographical Information System (GIS), for calcu-lating the LS factor,
is a great improvement for RUSLE application.
Mitasova et al. (1996) developed an equation for estimating the LS-factor
with supporting of a GIS, which was applied by Pelton et al. (2012) and
Ashiagbor et al. (2013), incorporating the impact from flow convergence,
replacing the slope length (L) by the upstream tribu-tary area per unit of
width. The area contribution concept requires the generation of a cumulative
ð8Þ flow map. For each pixel, the slope, the flow direction and the amount of
accumulated flow lines upstream of that pixel, are calculated. Thus, the
methodology applied in this study to obtain the LS-factor based on DEM was
that developed by Pelton et al. (2012), with the support of map algebra, thus
allowing the applica-tion of the equation developed by Mitasova et al. (1996):
m n
LS ¼ ðm þ 1Þ ðFlowaccumulationÞ ðCellsizeÞ sinð SlopeÞ
22:13 0:0896
ð9Þ
ð10Þ
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 115
Table 2 Table 4

Particle size distribution (%) and SOM (%) for MRAV soils. Soil structure codes.
Source: MINAG (1978).
Size limits
Series Group Sub-group Sand Clay Silt SOM Code Structure class (mm)
Huancayo Hn 1 III a 51.8 15.2 33.0 2.0 4 Platy, prismatic, columnar, blocky and very coarse N10
Chamiseria Cha2 VI a 34.8 23.2 42.0 4.3 granular
Azapampa Aa 3 VI d 24.8 30.2 45.0 3.0 3 Medium and coarse granular 2–10
Palian Pl 4 VI d 50.8 14.2 35.0 2.2 2 Fine granular 1–2
San Pedro Pd 5 IV a 66.8 10.2 23.0 1.9 1 Very fine granular b1
Sapallanga Sp6 III a 50.8 17.2 32.0 1.7
Maravilca Mi 7 I c 58.8 8.2 33.0 1.1
Huayao Ha 8 IV a 40.8 18.2 41.0 3.4 Estimation of the average annual C factor was conducted based on the
Huayna Capac Hc 9 VI d 60.8 9.2 30.0 2.9
description of different types of vegetation existing in MRB, which are shown
Apata Ap 10 III b 70.8 4.2 25.0 1.1
Huacho He 11 VI c 22.8 26.2 51.0 6.1 in Fig. 3d. Table 5 shows the land uses and C factor values adopted for MRB
Huachac Hua 12 IV c 47.2 22.6 30.2 3.2 based on published research.
Pilcomayo Py 15 I a 26.6 46.4 27.0 2.3 According to McCool et al. (1987), the P-factor is less reliable and
Seco Se 16 III a 38.6 14.4 47.0 1.5 represents how the surface influences the hydraulic flow and it was in-
Yanamuclo Ym 17 III a 37.0 23.4 39.6 2.1
San Jerónimo Je 18 III a 52.6 17.8 29.6 2.1
corporated to the model to reflect the soil conservation edaphic and me-
Hualhuas Hs 19 III a 47.4 19.0 33.6 2.3 chanical practices. In MRB, there is no reference about conservation practices
Huamancaca Hu 20 I a 30.2 39.4 30.4 1.1 that have been adopted, besides the fact that in most of the basin, extensive
Ahuac Ah 21 V b 26.6 37.8 35.6 1.2 grazing is prevalent. Thus, in this study, the most criti-cal value (1) was
Mantaro Ma 22 II b 60.8 9.2 30.0 3.6
adopted, which means no conservation practices, MRAV included.
Chicche Chi 23 VI a 40.6 13.2 46.2 6.4
Orcotuna Or 25 I a 30.6 29.4 40.0 3.0
Chupaca Chu 26 III c 31.6 33.4 35.0 2.3
Pancan Pn 27 III a 24.8 30.2 45.0 1.9
Paucar Pr 28 V c 31.8 23.3 44.9 4.6 3. Results and discussion
Jauja Ja 29 IV b 8.8 42.2 49.0 1.1
Yauli Ya 30 III b 46.8 19.2 34.0 1.6
3.1. Spatial and temporal behavior of rainfall erosivity in MRB, Peruvian Andes
Huertas Hr 31 III a 39.8 21.2 39.0 1.4
Mito Mo 32 II b 30.0 15.5 54.5 1.6
La Libertad Ll 40 IV b 31.7 25.2 43.1 4.6 Maps of the R-factor and for the spatial differences between consec-utive
Sicaya Si 42 III e 46.7 21.2 32.1 2.1 time slices were made and they allow to verify how the R-factor behaviors
Concepción Co 48 VI a 42.8 19.2 38.0 2.9 throughout the 21st Century, which means how the rainfall erosion power will
Quispic Qu 49 V a 38.8 18.5 42.7 1.5
Jallanna Jm 50 III b 55.8 15.2 29.0 3.2
be affected by the climate changes according to A1B scenario and the
Lunahuaná Lu 51 VI a 58.8 17.2 24.0 5.9 HadCM3-ETA/CPTEC model simulation. These maps are presented in Fig. 4
Cunas Cu 52 III e 53.8 17.2 29.0 6.4 (a – present climate; b - 2011–2040; c - 2041–2070; d - 2071–2099). For the
Palias Pa 53 VI e 66.8 7.2 26.0 4.0 present climate, there is a trend of higher R-factor in MRB's central and
San Luis Ls 54 VI e 52.8 9.2 38.0 5.6 northwest regions, although there are zones with greater values in the east, as
in the agro-ecological region “Selva Alta”. R-factor values were sub-divided
−1
into ranges, predominating values between 1500 and 2000 MJ mm (ha h y)
−1
where: [Flow Accumulation] · [Cell size] corresponds to the upstream for MRB, although there are regions with values N2500 MJ mm (ha h y) ,
tributary area per unit of width (m); (Slope) is the slope in degrees; m and n especially in the central zone of the basin (“Yunga”, “Que-chua” and “Puna”
are empirical coefficients that depend on flow type, for which we used the agro-ecological regions). In a sub-basin spatial con-text, the highest simulated
values 0.4 and 1.4, respectively (De Kort, 2013). Fig. 3b pre-sents the slope values are associated with sub-basins (from 12 to 19, see Fig. 1c) located in
map and Fig. 3c, the accumulated flow for MRB, which corresponds to the the eastern central region. Howev-er, the greatest rainfall erosive potential was
base maps for obtaining the LS-factor. According to De Kort (2013), the simulated for the Viscatan sub-basin (№ 22, located in “Selva Alta” agro-
RUSLE model, based on this approach for the LS-fac-tor, is classified as ecological region), which can be explained based on the warmer and moist
“RUSLE3D”. weather of this agro-ecological region (altitude b2000 m), which is within
Amazon rainforest region (Mello et al., 2013). Analyzing the sequence of
maps in Fig. 4, it is clear a prediction of R-factor reduction over the century
2.6. C- and P-factors determination for MRB, Peruvian Andes throughout most of MRB, showing a rainfall erosive power reduction trend if
an annual time scale is to be considered.
The C-factor refers to the effect of cover on the reduction of soil ero-sion.
Thus, in RUSLE, it has values between zero (0) and one (1), and the latter
corresponds to areas without vegetation (bare soils). With the in-crease of Evaluating the R-factor behavior to consecutive spatial differences
vegetation density, the C value tends to decrease, reducing the effect of between time slices, it can be seen that the sub-basins “Santa Ana”, “Alloc
rainfall drops on the ground. Huarco” and “Youli” (№ 5, 6 and 7 -. Fig. 1c) showed a trend of

Table 3
Soil permeability codes.

Code Classification Particle size distribution Saturated hydraulic conductivity (cm/h)

6 Very slow Silty clay, clay b0.125
5 Slow Silty, clay loamy, sandy clay 0.125–0.5
4 Moderately slow Sandy clay loam, clay loam 0.5–2.0
3 Moderate Loam, silt loam 2.0–6.0
2 Moderately fast Sandy clay, sandy loam 6.0–12.5
1 Very fast Sand N12.5
116 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

Fig. 3. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (a), maps of slope (b), accumulated flow (c) and land use (d) for MRB, Peruvian Andes.
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
Table 5
Land use and the respective C-factor values for MRB.
Land use Reference
Agricultural Land Delgado and Vasques (1997)
Agriculture/Secondary Woods Delgado and Vasques (1997)
Wetland IGP (2005)
Wet Mountain Grove IGP (2005)
Wet Temperate Scrubland IGP (2005)
Semiarid Temperate Scrubland IGP (2005)
Semi-hot Sub-humid Scrub IGP (2005)
Sub-humid Temperate Scrub IGP (2005)
Nival (glacial) IGP (2005)
High Andean Grassland IGP (2005)
Tundra IGP (2005)
consecutive R-factor increases over the twenty-first century, being more
expressed in the most recent time slices. “Cunas” sub-basin (№ 13 – Fig. 1c),
showed a decrease in the transition from present climate for the first time slice
(Fig. 5a, b); however, from the latter until the end of the century, there are
consecutive increases which are N10% in relation to the present climate. The
significant increase in R-factor values for the Northern, passing through the
Central and Southwestern MRB, from the second to the third time slices, with
impacts on “Ichu” (№ 21), “Huarpa” (№ 23), “Achamayo” (№ 12), “Shullcas”
o and also for “Sunni”, “Quechua” and “Yunga” regions, there were greater
(n 14) and “Viscatan” (№22) sub-basins, is also noteworthy. These sub-
basins pre-sented this increase in behavior compared to other areas of MRB
since in a large area of the MRB, such as the south central, had consecutive
R-fac-tor reductions. This prevailing trend of gradual erosive potential reduc-
tion throughout the century is mainly due to a reduction of the total
precipitation across the basin, simulated based on the A1B climate change
scenario by Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 model.
Soil erosion in the highest mountains of the planet can be generated not
only by the rainfall (water erosion) but also by the snowfall accumu-lated
over the ground, which includes avalanches and snow gliding phe-nomena.
Both active factors have been little studied due to the difficulty to implement
experimental areas for field monitoring. Meusburger et al. (2014) studied the
snow gliding erosion by monitoring a watershed in the Swiss Alpes along
with application of the RUSLE model. As we know, RUSLE is capable of
estimating erosion caused by raindrops. The cited authors obtained a very
good correlation between the snow glid-ing erosion and the results estimated
by RUSLE, demonstrating that al-though this model had not been designed
for running by other active factors, like snow or wind, its outputs have been
plausible for both pat-tern and quantitative soil losses.
Meusburger et al. (2014) carried out their study in a temperate
mountainous watershed, in which snowfall is responsible for 30% of an-nual
precipitation. For Peruvian Andes, a tropical high mountain system, the
snowfall is much lesser than in the Alpes and the climate simula-tions
demonstrated that the climate in MRB over the 21st century tends to become
drier than nowadays. This means that soil erosion caused by snow gliding or
avalanches in this basin, in the future, has low probability of occurrence.
Thus, the RUSLE model is the most indi-cated tool for estimating soil erosion
behavior in MRB for the present and future climates as the main active factor
for soil erosion in this basin is the rainfall.
R-factor to present climate and simulated time slices for each agro-
ecological regions and sub-basins were quantified as well as the consec-utive
percentage differences throughout the 21st Century. These data were
presented in column graphics allowing to compare numerically the regions
and sub-basins throughout the 21st Century (Fig. 5). The sub-basins that were
more affected were at higher altitudes, such as those located in the north (№ 1
to 9, Fig. 1c), presented an increasing R-factor trend. This behavior is related
to the increase in total precipita-tion with the intensification of global
warming and the increase of the permanent ice cap melting rate, moving the
freezing line (0 °C) to a
117
Plant cover Coverage % C-factor
0.45
0.93
Herbaceous plants 80 0.12
75–40, 90–70 NC 0.20
Scrubland 60 0.38
Scrubland 40 0.90
Scrubland 60 0.38
Scrubland 20 0.20
1.00
Herbaceous plants 20 0.00
Herbaceous plants 40 0.30
greater altitude. This effect has been increasingly intensified in areas of
tropical glaciers around the world, mainly in tropical Andes.
The largest decreases between consecutive periods of rainfall erosive
potential take place in the transition from the present climate for the first time
slice (2010–2040), except for “Janca” agro-ecological region and in the
mentioned sub-basins located in the northern MRB (Fig. 5b). “Selta Alta”
region (precisely Viscatan sub-basin) presents the greatest reduction (9%
lower than that observed to present climate). Moreover, for MRB as a whole
decreases in R-factor relative to the present climate by the end of the century,
although at a slower rate when analyzing the last two time slices. However, in
“Janca”, “Puna” and, more consistently, in “Selva Alta” agro-ecological
regions, there is an increase of the rainfall erosive potential in the last time
slice (2071–2098) compared to the previous one, similar to that which was
found for the sub-basins in the northern of MRB.
A temporal trend analysis of annual rainfall erosivity given by EI 3h and
PCI indexes, for MRB as a whole, given by the average of all simula-tion grid
points, is important to demonstrate if these indexes will pres-ent significant
trend (positive or negative) throughout the 21st Century. For that, trend
graphics were developed and Mann-Kendall test was ap-plied for the cited
variables (Fig. 6). A negative and significant statistical trend by the Mann-
Kendall (M-K) test at a significance level of 5% (z = −3.68) was obtained.
The opposite behavior could be found for PCI. The temporal series for PCI
showed a significant upward trend, ac-cording to M-K test (z = 3.88). Thus,
there is a clear declining trend in annual rainfall erosivity in MRB based at an
annual scale. However, it ap-pears that there is an increase of its variability
over time, especially from the second time slice, which is an important feature
of the climate change effects on rainfall patterns. Beyond this, the statistically
signifi-cant increase in PCI shows an important increase of erosive potential
during the rainy season of the year, as was reported for southeastern Brazil by
Mello et al. (2015). In addition, the concentration of rainfall can mean an
increase in erosive power during the rainy season or even for isolated
precipitation events, including the sub-basins, with a marked reduction in
rainfall erosivity. These considerations need to be jointly analyzed when it
comes to the climate change impacts on the rainfall erosive power, as there is
considerable uncertainty associated with these indicators under the influence
of global warming.
3.2. Spatial distribution of RUSLE passive factors for MRB, Peruvian Andes
In this topic, it is presented the spatial distribution of RUSLE passive
elements, beginning with the LS-factor, which was developed with basis on
RUSLE3D for MRB. The greatest values of this factor are in the east-central
region of the basin (Fig. 7a), specifically in “San Fernando”, “Pariahuanca”,
“Huanchuy”, “Paraiso”, “Viscatan” sub-basins and in the southern part of
“Microcuencas” sub-basin (see Fig. 1c). In terms of the percentage area of
MRB, LS-factor range from 5 to 50, representing 58% of the basin area. The
values corresponding to the average and
118 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

Fig. 4. R-factor
map for the present climate (a) and spatial behavior of the changes for consecutive time slices (b, c, d)
simulated for the XXI century in MRB, Peruvian Andes.
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 119

Fig. 5. Rainfall erosive potential (R-factor) for MRB agro-ecological regions and sub-basins, in Peruvian Andes, throughout the twenty- first century (a), and its variation in relation to the previous
period (b).

median are, respectively, 24.34 and 13.07. Based on this map, the MRB is sediment transport (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). For these condi-tions,
highly vulnerable to soil erosion, since this factor determines runoff conservation linked to land use and surface protection are keys to reducing
conditions, especially its speed and hydraulic capacity of channels for the soil erosion risk.

Fig. 6. Temporal distribution of annual rainfall erosive potential (EI 3h) (a) and of the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) (b) for MRB, Peruvian Andes, throughout the 21st century.
120 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
Fig. 7. Maps of LS-factor (a), K-factor (MRB highlighting MRAV soils) (b) and CP-factor (c) for MRB, Peruvian Andes.
The K-factor map, which demonstrates the natural soil vulnerability to
water erosion, was also developed. Based on this map, we can see the sub-
basins and agroecological regions of MRB with greater vulnerability to
erosion based on the soil erodibility. This kind information is impor-tant as it
helps supporting decision-making related to the soil use and management.
This map is shown in Fig. 7b for MRB, with a zoom for MRAV. Its values
vary from zero (water bodies) to 0.095, the latter cal-culated for MRAV soils
where there is a predominance of values N0.055. In most part of MRB, the
values are lesser than 0.045, which were esti-mated according to soil
information recommended by FAO-PNUMA-UNESCO (1980)and
FAO/UNESCO (1990), based on the main soils prop-erties (IGP, 2005). The
previously soils information for MRB include soils with texture ranging from
medium to sandy, shallow, and low natural fertility, indicating high
vulnerability to erosion, mainly for Leptosols and Cambisols, which occupy
predominantly Yunga and Puna agroeco-logical regions, and San Fernando's
neighborhood sub-basins. However, it is important to emphasize the
qualitative differences between the da-tabases available for MRB soils in
relation to those available for MRAV. The latter provided much more
information concerning soil erodibility.
CP-factor is another RUSLE passive element very important to un-
derstand the vulnerability of the basin to water erosion as it becomes clear
how the soils have been currently used, and helps to explain the greatest part
of the soil erosion rates estimated by the RUSLE. Its spatial distribution is
presented in the map of the Fig. 7c. In this map, the values range from zero
(0) for water bodies where there is no erosion, to one (1) for bare soils, as can
be observed in areas in the east and south of
MRB. It is possible to observe that the MRAV region has relatively higher
values, estimated based on the weighted average of the production areas of
the Valley and throughout the year as the land-uses are mostly tubers,
vegetables and cereals, and thus, greater exposure of soils throughout much of
the year. In sub-basins located at higher altitudes of MRB there are relatively
lesser values (0.13 to 0.2), as predominant land uses are “Tundra” and “High
Andean Grassland”, which are herba-ceous plant and grass vegetation with a
good ability to mitigate raindrop impact, reducing the vulnerability of soil to
erosion. It was also observed that at higher altitudes of western MRB, there
are greater CP-factor values, in which small sized vegetation is associated
with reduced bio-mass accumulation due to low temperatures that restrict
vegetation de-velopment, and, consequently, reduce soil protection against
raindrop impact.
3.3. Soil erosion risk maps for MRB under climate change impacts, Peruvian
Andes
Using map algebra, RUSLE3D was run over the MRB comparing the R-
factor layer for the present climate to the 3 time slices simulated based on
A1B climate change scenario (Fig. 8). An average of 48.5% of areas with
could
erosion risk were classified as “Very Severe” and “Extremely Severe”
be found with the simulations, both in MRB and in MRAV,
demonstrating that the basin is highly vulnerable to soil
erosion for the present climate conditions. Areas with greater
erosion risk were located
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 121

Fig. 8. Soil erosion risk maps for MRB for the present climate (a) and for the simulated time slices (2010–2040 - b; 2041 to 2070 – c; 2071–2098 - d).
122 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
in the east-central part of the basin, which had the greatest R-factor (Fig. 4a),
LS-factor (Fig. 7a), and significant bare-soil areas (Fig. 7c).
Only a small percentage of the MRB were simulated to increase over the
current soil erosion risk due to possible climate changes, having been
estimated with increments of 0.3%, 3.9% and 7.4% of the MRB area for time
slices 2010–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2098, respective-ly. The areas that
had simulated increase over past soil erosion risk were associated with “Vilca”
sub-basin, and lower parts of the “Yauli”, “Santa Ana” and “Atoc Huarco” sub-
basins (see Fig. 1c), as a result of consecu-tive increases in the rainfall erosive
potential in these sub-basins (Fig. 4).
A continuous decrease can be seen in the average annual soil loss until the
end of the century in all agro-ecological regions and sub-ba-sins, except for
“Selva Alta”, which in the last period had a slight increase of the risk
compared to the previous period (Fig. 9a, b). As mentioned, almost all the
MRB, for the present climate, presents an “extremely se-vere” risk for erosion.
However, spatially, there are important behavior-al differences. In the context
of agro-ecological regions, “Janca”, “Quechua”, “Yunga” and “Selva Alta” also
have this same risk rating, while “Suni” and “Puna” have a “very severe” risk.
Examining the results at the sub-basin level, those located in the northern
MRB (“Ichu”, “San Juan”, “Conocancha”, “Quisualcancha” and
“Chinchaycocha”) have a predicted “severe” risk, while “Colorado” sub-basin
has a “moderate” risk for current climate. These sub-basins are those for
which the least erosion risk was found, both for the present and for the future;
however, this was mainly linked to the behavior of CP-factor, which is low
for these sub-basins where the land use is predominantly dominated by tundra
(Fig. 7c). For sub-basins in eastern MRB (“Huanchuy”, “Pariahuanca”, “San
Fernando”, “Shullcas”, “Upamayu” and “Microcuencas”), the erosion risk was
classified as “extremely severe” for both present climate and throughout the
21st century, which was mainly associated with the LS- and CP-factors.
Overall, the main soils in these sub-basins are the Leptosols (Fig. 2b) and
considering their low effective depth, low natural soil fertility and very
undulated to mountainous slopes, it is easy to understand their high erosion
suscep-tibility. In the sub-basins “Achamayo”, “Yacuy” and “Paraíso”, the cur-
rent risk is “extremely severe”, but throughout the century, it is reduced to
“very severe”, because of the effect of rainfall erosion poten-tial reduction in
these sub-basins.
Fig. 9. Average annual soil loss distribution for agro-ecological regions (a) and sub-basins of MRB (b) and their respective
variations in relation to the previous time slice (c, d).
The results obtained in this study produced a spatial view, on region-al
and sub-basin scales, of the dynamics of soil loss by water erosion in MRB to
the end of the 21st century. Soil erosion risk could be assessed based on A1B
climate change scenario simulated by Eta-CPETC/ HadCM3model. However,
it is noted that the climate change impacts were analyzed only in the context
of the active erosion factor (rainfall) and that the other factors were not
changed because of the difficulty of designing realistic land use scenarios
along the 21st century, since there are no master plans and/or ecological-
economic zoning for the basin or even for the Peru. In addition, the
agricultural suitability in the basin is associated with extensive grazing and it
is very unlikely that a major change, in spatial terms, will occur within this
land use context. Beyond this aspect, we need to highlight that the
pedological database is not, in qualitative terms, homogeneous throughout
MRB, with MRAV being the only region of the basin with better information
gathered at the field level. Thus, the K-factor associated with the soil erosion
vulnerability does not provide the degree desired for reliability since it was
inferred based on soil information from FAO tables. In addition, the R-factor
anal-ysis may have a considerable estimation error, although the general trend
has been captured based on the A1B scenario, indicating de-creased rainfall
erosive power. The uncertainty associated with the R-factor is linked also to
the fact that there is no satisfactory pluviographic database for the basin,
which would allow establishing a more reliable relationship between rainfall
erosivity and other indicators related to the precipitation behavior.
Other passive factors (soil cover and cultivation practices) also will be
impacted by climate change; however, the identification and espe-cially the
measurement over the long-term of these factors are very un-certain.
According to Mello et al. (2015), the following question stand out in that
regard: what are the effects of increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration on
the physiological behavior of plants and their impacts on land cover? Also,
what land use scenarios are possible for the MRB without having direct plans
and ecological-economic and/or agro-cli-matological zoning? In addition,
what are the impacts on mineralization of soil organic matter and biota and
their effects on the soils susceptibil-ity to erosion? It can be seen that the
interaction of all these factors makes future prediction highly complex and
uncertain. Even facing these problems mentioned, the present work consists
of a pioneering effort for the Peruvian Andes and for the tropical Andes as it
brings a
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
unique and significant contribution that can be used to guide the MRB
economic development over the XXI century.
4. Conclusions
Analysis of the spatial and temporal rainfall erosivity behavior showed
that there is a downward trend over the 21st century in almost all the MRB as
a result of reduced precipitation projected by the dynam-ical downscaling of
the HadCM3 run for the A1B climate change scenar-io using the Eta-CPTEC
regional climate model at 20-km resolution. At the sub-basin spatial level, we
found successive increases for the R-fac-tor for those located in the northern
and southern-central parts of the MRB, under the strong influence of the
Andes. Although the Mann-Ken-dall test had found a statistical decrease in
annual rainfall erosivity along the 21st century, there was a significant
increase in data variability, es-pecially after the year 2040 (2nd time slice).
Also in the context of the effects on the rainfall behavior, there was a
significant increase on PCI index over the 21st century by the Mann-Kendall
test, meaning that there is an increased trend in rainfall concentration, which
can promote an increase of rainfall erosivity potential, mainly during the rainy
season (summer), although this effect is reduced on an annual time scale.
The MRB current risk to erosion was classified as “extremely severe” and
was associated with the soil vulnerability and land use, and we modeled as if
land use would remain the same until the end of this cen-tury throughout most
of the basin. However, at the sub-basin scale level, especially those located in
northern MRB, there is a “moderate” to “se-vere” risk, even having a tendency
towards an increased rainfall erosive power, due to the greater protection
offered by tundra. Even with the downward trend in the R-factor throughout
this century, MRB will con-tinue being highly vulnerable to erosion and
special strategies for soil protection should be developed.
This study has limitations especially related to databases that would
permit a more detailed analysis of the spatial behavior of soil erosion in the
MRB, such as a more detailed and accurate pedological database, better
hydro-climatic monitoring spatially distributed in the basin and the
uncertainties related to climate change projections. Since the MRB constitutes
one of the main environmental and agricultural manage-ment significant areas
of the tropical Andes, more care should be taken with soil erosion risk in the
future.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank FAPEMIG (588 - CAG PPM - 00132/14 and
PPM VIII - 71-14), and CNPq (PEC-PG and 303059/2013-3) for sponsor-ing
this research.
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