Estimation of Weibull Parameters using Graphical
Method for Wind Energy Applications
K. S. R. Murthy
Electrical Engineering Department
NIT Hamirpur
Hamirpur, India
harikella96@gmail.com
Abstract—Wind power resources are abundant in India; as a
result the wind power industry has entered a period of rapid
growth, and has been facing new challenges currently. Wind
power is environment friendly and renewable in nature. The
wind is caused by an air in motion and is produced by the uneven
heating of the earth’s surface by the sun. The wind speed has
been one of the most significant parameter in the design and
investigation of wind energy conversion systems (WECS). The
objective of the present research paper is to assess the feasibility
of wind power generation for a new site in Himachal Pradesh
using micro-turbines. The major contribution of this paper,
envisages two parameters, i.e., shape and scale parameter based
Weibull distribution model for investigating wind speed
variations and Weibull parameters calculation by Least Squares
Fit Method (LSM) also known as Linear regression model using
graphical method. This research work shows that the hilly site of
Hamirpur in Himachal Pradesh has good wind power potential
and large magnitude of winds have been available for power
generation during the months of March to June suitable for low
wind power generation.
Keywords— greenhouse gases; statistics; weibull distribution;
weibull parameters; wind power density; wind speed.
I. INTRODUCTION
Energy is one of the major inputs for economic and social
development of any country. Energy demand grows due to
population increase, rapid urbanization and industrialization.
The use of fossil fuels for electricity generation has an adverse
impact on environment, especially excessive emissions of
greenhouse gases (GHGs) to atmosphere leading to climate
change and global warming. Renewable energy technologies
are clean sources of energy and are sustainable. Wind is one of
such widely used source worldwide [1].
Major contribution for renewable electricity generation so
far has been from hydro and wind power with small
contributions from solar, geothermal, biomass, waste, and tidal
wave/ocean energy. The government incentives and policies
provide primary support for renewable power generation
programmers [2]. Worldwide wind power generation capacity
978-1-4799-5141-3/14/$31.00 ©2014 IEEE
O. P. Rahi
Electrical Engineering Department
NIT Hamirpur
Hamirpur, India
oprahi2k@gmail.com
has reached 282.3 GW in 2012 as per the World Wind Energy
Association (WWEA) [3]. World Wind Energy Report 2012
has shown a 19.2% global growth and the global annual
installed wind power capacity has increased from 1280 MW to
44,799 MW during the period 1996-2012. The cumulative
wind power generation in India has reached 18.4 GW in 2012.
The total renewable energy installations in the country has
reached 26.9 GW in January 2013 which accounted for over
12 % of total installed capacity, and about 6% of electricity
generation by the end of 2012 as compared to 2% in 1995. The
wind power alone accounted for about 69% of total renewable
energy capacity or about 8% of the total installed capacity in
India [4].
Wind turbines are often used in large-scale wind farms in
the countryside or in coastal regions, but there has been a
growing market for micro-turbines. Micro-turbines are defined
as those that are capable of delivering energy at a rate of less
than 50kW [5]. This definition covers a range of turbine sizes,
from blades of half a meter to around 15 meters with 30 meter
tall towers. Small wind farms consisting of large number of
such wind turbines in vast open spaces have also become a
reality. Large wind turbines are now in their seventh or eighth
generation of technology development, while micro-wind
turbines are yet to evolve commercially in India. Micro-wind
turbines can achieve high market penetration especially in
areas with lower housing densities and sufficient wind
resources [5]. The efficient micro-wind turbines for low wind
speed regions with low cut in speeds are required to be
developed and standardized keeping in view the vast wind
power potential utilizing wind on the building roof tops. The
Indian industry needs to develop innovative and simplify
designs so as to reduce the cost of electricity generated by such
small or micro wind turbines. Centre for Wind Energy
Technology (C-WET), a Govt. of India Undertaking under the
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has carried out a
survey to estimate the installable potential of the country and
published a wind atlas of India [6]. A meso-scale wind power
density map of 80 m level integrated with the wind power
density map generated with actual measurements and re-plotted
final wind power density map is shown in Fig.1. A fraction of
uniform 2% land availability in all states and 0.5% in
Himalayan states, North eastern states and Andaman &
Nicobar Islands, has been considered for energy estimation [6].
Ramachandra and Gautham have carried out a preliminary
wind resource assessment study for the state of Himachal
Pradesh, India [7]. Chandel ss et al., have been explores the
wind power potential assessment of 12 towns of Himachal
Prdesh by using WEPF method and WAsP software for
decentralized power applications. Also describing the wind
characteristics and vertical wind speed profiles has been
determined from meteorological and NASA data for the
complex terrain [8-9].
The analysis of wind behavior at a site has to be studied to
obtain necessary information about economic aspects of wind
power generation. The long term trends in wind speeds are
difficult to quantify and large historical data sets are required to
accurately capture and describe such variations. These results
are used for frequency and probability modelling [10].
Fig. 1. Wind Power density map of India at 50m and showing Hamirpur
location [6]
Large wind variations occur due to differential heating of
earth’s surface during daily radiation cycle. A typical diurnal
variation is noticed from lowest wind speeds around midnight
with increase from sunrise to day time [11]. The daily
variations in solar radiation are responsible for diurnal wind
variations in temperate latitudes over relatively flat land areas.
The wind speed variations during the year can well be
characterized in terms of a probability distribution [12]. The
wind power potential assessment is generally based on long
time meteorological observations in the area of interest;
however, if such data are not available then one year of
measured data are generally sufficient to predict long-term
seasonal mean wind speeds within an accuracy of 10% with a
confidence level of 90% [13]. Among such observations, the
wind speed is an important random variable to assess the wind
potential of the site. The wind speed in a given period can be
represented by a probability density function. Weibull
distribution is one of the most widely used tools for wind
resource analysis. Keeping in view the potential for wind
power generation for decentralized applications like residences,
institutional buildings in urban, rural and remote locations there
is need to assess the wind resource potential and feasibility of
micro turbines in the country. With this objective in mind, the
wind resource assessment is carried out using high resolution
wind data for Hamirpur town located in Indian state of
Himachal Pradesh in Western Himalayan region [8-9]. The
paper is organized as follows: the site and wind data
monitoring station and the methodology used in this research is
given in section II; Results are discussed in section III and
conclusions are discussed in section V.
II. METHODOLOGY
A wind monitoring facility was installed in June 2011 at the
Centre for Energy and Environment (CEE), National Institute
of Technology, Hamirpur (NITH), Himachal Pradesh, India
(Lat 31.68°N, Long 76.52°E) (Fig. 2). NITH campus is spread
over area of 101 ha in hilly terrain with elevation ranging from
738 m to 896 m above mean sea level with snow clad
Dauladhar mountain ranges of western Himalayas in the North
and is surrounded with coniferous pine trees covering 60% of
the land area.
Fig. 2. Automatic weather station at top of CEE building at 10 from roof [15]
The wind speed and direction are measured using Young’s
propeller type anemometer with wind vane fixed at the height
of 18.5 m above the ground level. The data are recorded using
a Campbell data acquisition system, at 1 min, 10 min, hourly
and daily intervals. The multi-channel data logger is connected
to a computer in the laboratory for automatic storage and data
retrieval. The monitoring station also records solar radiation,
temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rain fall data.
Hourly resolution measured wind speed data for the period of a
year 2013 is used in the present paper. The specifications of
wind measuring instruments and sensors of the wind
monitoring station are given in Table I.
The different observed wind speeds are fit to the existing
wind speed distribution models such as the Weibull, the
Rayleigh, and the Lognormal. Out of these three existing
models, the two-parameter based on Weibull parameter
distribution has been well accepted as best amongst the above
mentioned three models due to the reason that this model can
modify the parameters to suit a period of time (usually
monthly/yearly) and it has been employed unanimously by
researchers in wind energy analysis [14-16]. The two
parameter Weibull distribution is used to describe wind speed
variation if wind speed variation follows Weibull probability
density function. Weibull distribution is a special case of
Pearson Type III or Generalized Gamma distribution with two
parameters, using the Stirling approximation for the gamma
function given below;
The Weibull distribution function (WDF) is given by
⎛ k ⎞⎛ v ⎞
k −1
⎡ ⎛v⎞ ⎤
Where, F ( v ) is the cumulative probability density function
for the corresponding wind speed v , k is shape parameter (ha
no units), and c is a scale parameter (m/s).
There are several methods available for determining the
Weibull parameters k and c out of those for calculation purpose
Least Squares Fit Method (LSM) is used [17-21].
By transforming in to logarithmic form “(2)” could be
expressed as “(3)”
( )
ln ⎡ln 1/ ⎡⎣1 − F ( v ) ⎤⎦ ⎤ = k ln vi
⎣ ⎦
(3)
k

f ( v ) = ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ exp ⎢ − ⎜ ⎟ ⎥ (1) Let X i = ln vi (4)

⎝ c ⎠⎝ c ⎠ ⎣⎢ ⎝ c ⎠ ⎥⎦
⎣ (
Yi = ln ⎡ln 1/ ⎡⎣1 − F ( v ) ⎤⎦ ⎤
⎦ ) (5)
TABLE I. TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS OF MEASURING INSTRUMENTS
AND SENSORS [15] where, i = 1, 2,3,...., n .
The linear approximation of this data is obtained using the
Resolution

Operating
Temperat
ure range
Accuracy

least square method, in the form

Sensors

Output
Range

[°C]

Y = a + bX (6)
Propeller Where, Y is the ordinate taken as dependent variable on Y -
Type 0 - 100 ± 0.3 -50 to AC axis, X is the abscissa taken as independent variable on X -
Anemometer 0.001 axis, b indicates the slope, and a is the intercept.
m/s m/s +50 voltage
RMY-
5010310L Thus Weibull parameters are obtained as
0-360° k =b (7)
(Mech.)
Analog
Wind and Scale parameter is
Direction 0-355° ±3° 0.0098 - DC
a
Sensor (Elect., 5
° Voltage −

open.)
c=e b
(8)

Temperature
The power density from the Weibull distribution is given
-50 to -50 to
Sensor ± 0.3°C 0.1 Voltage by the mathematical expression []:
+50°C +50
P-41342
1 3
Humidity 0–100 ±1 -50 Pw = ρ c Γ (1 + 3 / k ) (9)
Sensor 1% Voltage 2
%RH %RH to+50°
P- 41342 Where, ρ is the standard air density 1.225 kg/m3 and Γ is
Pressure 500-1100 ± 0.3 0.01 -40 to Voltage
Sensor
the gamma function which is defined by the following integral
P-61302V
hPa hPa hPa +60 form as follows:
± 0.5 ∞
Radiation
Sensor
400-1100
mV/W/
0.001 -30 to
Voltage Γ ( n ) = ∫ t n −1e−t dt (10)
nm W/m2 +70 0
SP LITE-2 m 2

III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Where, f ( v ) is the Weibull probability density function of
the corresponding wind speed ( v , m/s), k is shape parameter
(has no units), and c is a scale parameter (same as the units of
wind speed, i.e., m/s). k determines the shape of the curve
and c determines the scale of the curve. The Cumulative
distribution function (CDF) is
⎡ ⎛ v ⎞k ⎤
F ( v ) = 1 − exp ⎢ − ⎜ ⎟ ⎥
⎣⎢ ⎝ c ⎠ ⎦⎥
In this paper, the observed wind speeds have been plotted
with the hourly measurements during the year 2013. The total
number of data points observed have been equal to 8760
(365 × 24). The dynamic nature of the hourly variations in the
measurements has been shown in Fig. 3. The transients have
been less observed in between 1 m/s to 3 m/s speed throughout
the measurements. The peak wind speeds have been observed
to the extent of 8.23 m/s and lowest has been 0.058 m/s with an
annual mean wind speed of 1.96 m/s. The reason for these
(2)
fluctuations in wind speeds is due to uneven heating of the
earth’s surface (land masses) due to the sun.
 The hourly wind speed variation at NITH wind monitoring TABLE II. MONTHLY AND ANNUAL VARIATION OF MEAN WIND SPEEDS
AND WEIBULL PARAMETERS K (SHAPE PARAMETER), C (SCALE PARAMETER)
facility have been recorded and observed. From this observed
data, pattern of Weibull and Cumulative distributions have vm
Shape Scale Power
been calculated for the year 2013. The Weibull parameters k , c Month parameter parameter density
(m/s)
(k) (c, m/s) (Pd, W/m2)
and power density ( Pw , W/m2) have been obtained from the
Jan 1.86 2.45 2.09 6.26
graphical method using MATLAB (version 2013-a).
Feb 2.12 2.61 2.38 8.88
The monthly mean wind speeds are observed maximum in
the months of March and May with the magnitudes of 2.3 m/s Mar 2.3 2.78 2.57 10.76
and 2.46 m/s and the lowest typical values of 1.64 m/s and 1.72 Apr 2.12 2.79 2.36 8.34
m/s are occurred in August and September as shown in Fig. 4.
May 2.46 2.71 2.76 13.49
Table II given below shows that the wind power density Jun 2.11 2.73 2.35 8.32
also is same as that of monthly mean wind speed variation as
shown in “(9)” considering the standard air density as 1.225 Jul 1.74 2.63 1.94 4.77
kg/m3 at mean sea level. The monthly, annual wind Aug 1.64 2.58 1.84 4.09
characteristics like mean wind speeds, mean power densities,
Sep 1.72 2.44 1.93 4.95
and Weibull parameters (shape parameter ( k ) and scale
parameter ( c )) have been shown in Table II. Oct 1.77 2.79 1.99 4.98

9 Nov 1.87 2.37 2.11 6.61

Hourly wind speed time series data
Dec 1.88 2.90 2.11 5.83
8

Annual 1.96 2.55 2.24 7.27

7

6
WInd speed [m/s]

Fig. 5 shows that The Weibull and Cumulative frequency

distributions have been extracted from the hourly time series
5

4
wind speed data.

3 Distribution extracted from the time series

1.5
2
Probability

1 1

0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
Hourly Measurements 0.5

Fig. 3. Observed dynamic behavior of hourly time series wind speed 0

measurements during 2013 0 2 4 6 8 10
Wind speed [m/s]

Cumulative distribution extracted from the time series

1.5
Cumulative probability

0.5

0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Wind speed [m/s]

Fig. 5. Distributions observed from time series data during 2013

The monthly shape parameter has been determined in the

Fig. 4. Monthly mean wind speed variations of the year 2013
range of 2.37 to 2.9 and it is lowest in November and Highest
in December with an annual value of 2.55. This parameter
represents the nature of the wind variability or stability of the
wind. For the most favorable wind sites, the k value ranges
between 1.51-1.99. In case of smaller values for k ( ≤ 1.5), the
wind sites are highly variable and gusty winds, for k equal to Weibull probability density function
2, the site have moderate wind speeds, and if k ≥ 3 then the site 1.5

indicates the regular and steady wind. While parameter c has

been observed near to monthly mean wind speeds in the range 1
of 2.09 m/s to 2.76 m/s with minimum in the month of January

f(v)
and maximum in month of May with an annual mean value c
0.5
of 2.24 m/s. From the above analysis, the values of k have
been observed higher as compared to the value of c in all the
months including in observational year 2013. There has been 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
an exception in the case of May month in the value of c (2.76 v (m/s)
m/s) which has been greater than that of k value (2.71 m/s). Cumulative probability density function
1.5
From the graphical method, by using linear least-squares
regression model with regression coefficient or regress variable
1
taken as wind speed to compute the best fitted line. The

F(v)
comparison curve has been drawn between the fitted data from
the wind speed frequency distribution indicates red color line 0.5
and linearized curve obtained from the linear regression model
indicates blue color line as shown in Fig. 6. The slope of the
0
linear regression curve gives the slope of 2.54 with an intercept 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
v (m/s)
of -2.05 then the corresponding k =2.55 and c = 2.24m/s.
Fig. 7 shown below that, the Weibull and Cumulative
Fig. 7. Weibull and cumulative probability density function during 2013
probability density functions have been plotted. The Weibull
parameters have been determined using graphical method in
MATLAB (version 2013-a).
This means that almost 98.95 % of the input time series
Linearized curve and fitted line comparison data is covered and well fitted on the regression plot within the
4
acceptable limits of 5 %. The desirable conditions for
adjustable parameter should be maximum (that is 100 %) as
2 much as possible. The second order polynomial has been given
below as “(11)”:
0 Y = 5.606 X 2 − 11.094 X + 8.6901 (11)
y = ln(-ln(1-cumFreq(v)))

-2

-4

-6
Linear regression model
Wind speed frequency distribution
-8

-10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
x = ln(v)

Fig. 6. Comparison between linearized curve and fitted line

These parameters have been varied each month. The

observed data at the wind monitoring site established at NIT
Hamirpur cover period of one year i.e., 2013 and has been used
to test the Graphical method. The plot drawn between the
power densities ( Pw ) as on the dependent axis and monthly Fig. 8. Scatter plot between wind power density and wind speed

mean wind speeds ( v ) has been taken along the independent

axis as shown in Fig. 8. The data is fitted through a second IV. CONCLUSIONS
order polynomial fitting of Pw verses v with an adjustable In this paper monthly and annual mean wind speeds have
coefficient R 2 (or fitness coefficient) of 0.9895. been observed for a new site in Himachal Pradesh. In this
experimental research, the monthly mean wind speed variations
have been observed maximum for the summer months of
March and May with 2.3 m/s and 2.46 m/s in 2013,
respectively. The annual mean maximum has occurred in 2013
with 1.96 m/s. The Weibull parameters, shape parameter k and
scale parameter c have been well fitted by the linear regression
model (Graphical method) for the given site. By observing the
values of k , the wind variation has been moderate for this
location. Also the power density verses wind speed data has
also been well fitted with second order polynomial with
adjusted R 2 value of 0.9945. The highest and mean power
density has been calculated as 7.56 W/m2 and 7.27 W/m2,
respectively for the year 2013. The second order polynomial
has been used for testing the graphical method which provides
better fitting for this site. From the above investigations, it has
been concluded that the wind resource in this area can be
effectively utilized using roof top installed micro-wind turbines
with hub heights more than 10 m with low cut in wind speeds
or other suitable micro turbines utilizing low wind speeds.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to acknowledge the automatic
weather station data provided by the Center for Energy and
Environment at National Institute of Technology Hamirpur,
Himachal Pradesh.
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