Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
COPPER COMMODITY
Project submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the
OF
BANGALORE UNIVERSITY
By
2018 – 2019
i
DECLARATION BY THE STUDENT
I also declare that this project is the outcome of my own efforts and that it has not
been submitted to any other university or Institute for the award of any other
degree or Diploma or Certificate.
ii
BANGALORE UNIVERSITY
Certificate of Originality (Plagiarism)
DrillBit
Software (Attach first page of the originality report as ANNEXURE) and found within limits as
We have verified the contents of the project report, as summarized above and
certified that the statements made above are true to the best of our knowledge and belief.
iii
CERTIFICATE OF ORIGINALITY
Date:
iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Finally, I wish to thank all my teachers, friends and my parents from whom I
received a generous help directly or indirectly.
v
TABLE OF CONTENTS
vi
LIST OF TABLES
vii
LIST OF FIGURES/GRAPHS
viii
Executive Summary
Any product which exists naturally and serves as an input for the secondary
market can be described as a commodity. They can be classified as a agricultural
products like cotton, pepper, jute etc. or non-agricultural products like crude oil,
energy, gold, copper, aluminium and so on.
Metals are the key important intermediate for industrial production. There are
different metals from base metals (Copper, Aluminium, Lead, Zinc, and Nickel) to
precious metals (Gold and Silver) majorly contributed for economic development.
The present study focused on the price movement of the copper commodity,
which is a non-ferrous base metal and its impact on Indian metal market. There
are various microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affects the prices of
commodities like demand and supply, exchange rates, trade policies and industrial
growth. This study helps to find out relation between price-movement of copper
commodity, US Dollar and BSE SENSEX.
ix
CHAPTER – 1
INTRODUCTION
1
INDUSTRY SCENARIO
Indian commodity market comprises of trading commodities in both retail,
wholesale market and in commodity future markets. Commodity markets are the
main important integral part of financial markets. It consists of trading in both
agricultural and non-agricultural commodities traded in recognised stock
exchanges regulated by securities exchange board of India. It is the market where
wide range of products are exchange and traded like precious metals, base metals,
energy, crude oil and soft commodities like cardamom, cotton, rubber etc.
Indian economy is at the broader side a fairy story over the centuries. Its overall
performance in terms of the output increase has been remarkably and distinctly
great. India stands top in the production of jute, jute-like fibers, pulses and milk, is
on the second one position in groundnut, vegetables, culmination, cotton, rice, and
wheat and sugarcane manufacturing, and is a leading producer of fisheries,
rooster, cattle, spices and plantation plants. It contributes to about one-fifth of the
gross domestic product (GDP) of our country.
Every commodity that is produced finally comes into the market where the goods
are bought and sold. Commodity markets plays an essential role in the economies
of a country where contributes to the maximum amount of GDP contribution.
Firstly, the commodity market organised in the 19th century, Bombay Cotton
Exchange was setup in the year 1875 by Bombay Cotton Trade association LTD.
Eventually a number of trade associations for trade in derivatives were came up
with various commodities in various parts of the country. Key associations among
them are Gujarati Vyapara Mandali in 1900 facilitates future trades in oil seeds,
2
futures trade in gold by Bombay Bullion association in 1920, and the other trade
exchanges facilitating futures trade in commodities like jute, pepper, spices etc.
Indian commodity future markets works well until the early 1960’s. Later, its
advancement was nearly going down on being various constraints due to leading
in inflation and restricting components to prohibit trade in large number of
commodities presented by the Government of India. In the year 2003, it revives of
futures trading in commodities and started operations in three national level
commodity exchanges.
Commodity futures trading in our country has growing multiple times since its
resurrection happen in the year 2003. The average daily turnover of Indian
commodity futures have increased constantly and sharp movement from INR 1970
crores per day in 2004 – 05 to a peak of about INR 58471 crores per day in 2011 –
12. However, after it has started downwards to INR 55891 crores per day in 2012
– 13 and steeply downwards to INR 32725 crores per day in 2013 – 14 and
subsequently about INR 24965 crores per day in 2016 – 17. This fall happened
due to following the commodities transaction tax on trade of non-agriculture
3
future contracts and the breaking out of the payment crisis at a spot exchange in
2013. However, commodity derivative volumes expected to grow again the
introduction of options contract and participation of alternative investment funds.
Source: www.mcxindia.com
Currently, the national level commodity exchanges extended its offerings around
40 commodity contracts under various classes of products in precious metals, base
metals, energy and agricultural commodities like oil and oil seeds, spices, fiber
and other products. In the past ten-year’s bullion plays a significant role in
commodity markets.
Energy and base metals have additionally increased considerable volumes since
2009-10 onwards while volumes in agriculture commodity items remained
altogether lower than that in any non-agriculture commodities.
4
India is exporting commodities in bulk manner and there is scope for diminishing
price risk of international commodities in Indian economy as a total. The prices of
commodities are very volatile in nature, thereby, indicates the need for organised
commodity derivatives exchanges for the parties in the commodity markets
ecosystem. It believes that generally growth of a commodity market is positive
side development of an economy.
The Indian commodity market will play a main important role in our country’s
future economic growth, a seminar on ‘Agribusiness and Commodities Price Risk
Management’ (Chathurved, 2012) .
The countries main growth sectors in future are textile, food, infrastructure,
housing and energy are commodity in deep.
In spite of having a strong economy, India's offer in the worldwide item showcase
is not as large as assessed. With the exception of gold, the offer in different areas
of the item showcase is not exceptionally noteworthy.
Economic, technological and societal factors influence the supply and demand of
copper. As society's need for copper increases, new mines and plants introduced
and existing ones expanded.
Land-based resources are estimated at 1.6 billion tons of copper, and resources in
deep-sea nodules are estimated at 0.7 billion tons. The global production of
refined copper is around 15 million tons. The major copper-consuming nations are
Western Europe (28.5%), the United States (19.1%), Japan (14%), and China
(5.3%).
5
Copper and copper alloy scrap composes a significant share of the world's supply.
The largest international sources for scrap are the United States and Europe. Chile,
Indonesia, Canada and Australia are the major exporters and Japan, Spain, China,
Germany and Philippines are the major importers.
(000 tonnes)
Metals are the key important intermediate for industrial production. There are
different metals from base metals (Copper, Aluminium, Lead, Zinc, and Nickel) to
precious metals (Gold and Silver) majorly contributed for economic development.
The volume of Indian copper industry consumed around five lakh tonnes of
refined copper per annum. Present there are three major players dominate the
Indian Copper Industry. They are Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) in public
sector, Sterlite Industries (Vedanta Company) & Hindalco Industries in private
sector.
6
production of copper concentrates at 135 thousand tonnes decreased by 11% in
2016-17 as compared to that in the previous year. India's consumption demand for
refined copper stood at 820 thousand tonnes in the FY16.
4. Economic factors like industry growth which towards the help in growth
of GDP, global financial crisis where there is a huge destruction in
markets, Inflation and recession.
6. Some specific events like natural disaster, supply interruption and industry
reconstruction.
7
1.7 Factors of price determination in commodity markets
Future prices of commodities decided by the demand and supply force for a
specific item in the market. The prises of commodity rises if the purchase volumes
out sales volumes and vice versa.
The prices in future markets are determined by the agreement entered by the buyer
and seller bargaining for the price quotes called as buy and sell quotes. In
addition, different participants as speculators, arbitrageurs and hedgers are also
plays a main role in the markets based on the market performance and it is
influences the prices of commodities.
8
CHAPTER – 2
9
INDUSTRY PROFILE
Commodity markets are the markets where all agriculture and non-agriculture
commodities traded in recognised exchanges regulated by the Securities Exchange
Board of India (SEBI). Commodities that traded in two ways that is over the
counter and in the recognised exchanges. Also there exist that commodities are
traded in both spot prices and in derivatives segments in options and futures.
10
2.2 List of commodity exchanges in India
Commodity
Exchanges
1. MCX 16 Regional
2. NCDEX commodity
3.NMCE exchanges
4. ICEX
5. ACDEX
6.UCX
The Multi commodity exchange (mcx) is the first listed exchange, could be a
progressive, commodities derivative exchange that facilitates on-line
commercialism and clearing and settlement of derivative transactions, thereby
providing a platform for risk management. It started operations in the year
November 2013.
MCX is in a style for mercantilism in metals and energy contracts. MCX offering
the products to trade in Bullion market like Gold and Silver, Base metals like
Copper, Aluminium, Brass, Zinc, Lead and Nickel. Energy like crude oil and
natural gas. Agricultural products like cardamom, cotton, castor seeds etc.
MCX is the world’s largest exchange in silver, the second largest in gold, copper
and gas and the third largest in crude futures. However, exchange listed
commodities contribute for less than a fifth of the overall volume of commodities
listed in India. Internationally, the commodities market in commodities is 30-40
11
times the scale of the underlying physical artefact trade. The upper the number,
many of finely the goods worth risks will unfold across the market.
These are two stock exchanges where it offers to trade in copper commodity in
spot market and derivatives in futures and options.
12
exchange by upgrading its self from a regional stock exchange namely
Ahmedabad commodity exchange.
Besides the six national level commodity exchanges, there are sixteen more
regional level commodity exchanges which offers specific commodities to trade
rather than multi commodities and are not demutualised. Most of these regional
exchanges are not digitalised. Therefore, there is a chance of price discovery
manipulation and less transparency in market. The list of regional stock exchanges
are as follows.
4. Chamber of Commerce
13
11. National Board of Trade
Oil and Oil seeds: Castor seeds, Copra, Soy Seeds, Castor Oil, Refined Soy Oil,
Soya meal, Crude Palm Oil, Cotton Seed, Guar seed.
Pulses: Chana
14
by another operator) that ascertains the credit-worthiness of the parties of a
contract and ensures the execution of contracts. It is especially serves as a legal
counter-party between each buyer and each seller of a derivatives contract on the
exchange and called as a central counter party.
2.5.1 Speculators:
Speculators is a person who invests in stock property and other ventures in the
sense of making profits. Speculators utilises their strategies and typically a short
time in an attempt to outperform traditional long-term investors. They take risk
especially with respect to future price movements and they hope of making profits
that are large enough to cover the risk. For example, a speculator invest their
money in long-term like derivatives, commodities.
15
2.5.2 Hedgers:
A Hedger is a person who do not want to take any risk while investing. Hedge is a
risk management technique used to reduce any substantial loss or gain suffered by
an individual or organisation. They always try to skip the risk. A hedger is a short-
term trader or intraday trader. He used to trade in two different markets or
exchanges. For example, a person buy stocks in NSE and he sells his stocks in
BSE with a minimum gains.
2.5.3 Arbitrageurs:
Arbitrage is a type of participant who do not want to take risks while markets are
performing bad or high fluctuations in market. They use to make risk free profit.
For example, a person invests their money in markets for short-term and make risk
free profits.
16
CHAPTER – 3
RESEARCH DESIGN
17
Design of project report
Commodity prices are mainly determined by demand and supply. Too much
supply of copper brings down prices while heavy demand brings up prices. Supply
comes from inventories and production from copper mines. Demand comes from
users and uses. The more volume and types of use for copper, the bigger the
demand. The higher the demand and the lower the supply, the higher the price.
Romualdez (2010)
Keynes (1950) provides discussions of the behaviour of commodity prices and the
relationship between commodity price, production and stock levels. If we ignore
hedging costs, then Keynes' argument is simply that when stocks are high, the
difference between futures prices and spot price reflects the cost of storing or
carrying spot prices but when stocks are low, commodity prices tend to reflect the
value of immediate consumption and the link to the value in storage is broken. For
example, spot price could exceed the futures price when stocks are low.
Fama and French (1987) examined whether the futures prices for copper
commodity and other commodities contain evidence of forecast power or
systematic risk premiums for the period 1967-1984. They showed that the copper
futures price contains suggestive evidence of both systematic risk premiums and
forecasting power (French, 1987)
18
3.2 Statement of the problem
Commodity markets are very volatile in nature. The commodity prices are wholly
dependent on demand and supply in domestic and international markets. Change
in price of one commodity will affect the prices for other commodities. The
impact of price movement will affect Industrial production and construction,
economic development, investors in the commodity market.
To study the impact of the change in copper price on the other commodities
and currency.
The study is conduct to find the change in the price of one variable (COPPER) for
a given amount of other variables (USD and SENSEX).
This research is all depending on secondary data, which is the prices of the
commodities and Currency rates, are collected from Multi Commodity Exchange
of India LTD (MCX), Bombay Stock Exchange LTD (BSE SENSEX) and other
industry reports, newspapers, magazines.
19
3.6 Sampling:
The fundamental purpose of this study is to examine whether copper prices affects
the SENSEX, US DOLLAR. To check this the past 50 days of copper and gold
prices, US Dollar rate and Sensex data has taken from their registered websites.
Data will be collected through secondary data and will be analysed with the help
of statistical tools Karl Pearson’s Co-efficient followed with economic model of
Regression analysis.
Regression analysis is a statistical tool to determine the change in one variable for
the given amount of change in another. It studies the nature of the relationship
between the variables.
The quality of secondary data is limited to the sources that I have taken to
conduct the study.
Chapter 5: Findings
20
CHAPTER – 4
21
DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
As discussed in the research methodology, this chapter brings out the data analysis
and further interpretation being on the same as the follow sections below:
It is shows the degree of liner relationship between two variables. It ranges from
+1 to -1. If a correlation is, +1 it means the relationship between two variables is
perfectly positive linear relationship. If the correlation is, -1 it means the
relationship between two variables is perfectly negative linear relationship. If
correlation is zero it means there is no relationship between two variables.
Mathematical formula:
The quantity r, called the linear correlation coefficient measures the strength and
the direction of a linear relation between two variables. The linear correlation
coefficient is sometimes referred to as the Pearson product moment correlation
coefficient on honour of its developer Karl Pearson.
∑x = Sum of X variables
22
∑y = Sum of Y variables
Regression analysis:
Regression analysis is a statistical tool to determine the change in one variable for
the given amount of change in another. It studies the nature of the relationship
between the variables.
23
MODLE-1: Relationship between copper and US Dollar
To determine the relationship between the Copper and US Dollar. By using Karl
Pearson’s correlation coefficient and regression of the data
COPPER US DOLLAR
Date PRICES (X) RATE (Y) XY x2 y2
Oct 11,
2018 459.25 74.05 34007.4625 210910.563 5483.4025
Oct 10,
2018 458.7 74.25 34058.475 210405.69 5513.0625
Oct 09,
2018 463.2 74.34 34434.288 214554.24 5526.4356
Oct 08,
2018 456.1 74.065 33781.0465 208027.21 5485.62423
Oct 05,
2018 456.55 73.77 33679.6935 208437.903 5442.0129
Oct 04,
2018 457.2 73.63 33663.636 209031.84 5421.3769
Oct 03,
2018 464.7 73.345 34083.4215 215946.09 5379.48903
Oct 01,
2018 454.95 72.925 33177.2288 206979.503 5318.05563
Sep 28,
2018 452.95 72.51 32843.4045 205163.703 5257.7001
Sep 27,
2018 448.35 72.57 32536.7595 201017.723 5266.4049
Sep 26,
2018 456.6 72.6 33149.16 208483.56 5270.76
Sep 25,
2018 457.35 72.685 33242.4848 209169.023 5283.10923
Sep 24,
2018 459.1 72.67 33362.797 210772.81 5280.9289
24
Sep 21,
2018 458.15 72.24 33096.756 209901.423 5218.6176
Sep 20,
2018 438.85 72.015 31603.7828 192589.323 5186.16022
Sep 19,
2018 437.6 72.36 31664.736 191493.76 5235.9696
Sep 18,
2018 442 72.71 32137.82 195364 5286.7441
Sep 17,
2018 429.75 72.54 31174.065 184685.063 5262.0516
Sep 14,
2018 423.95 71.88 30473.526 179733.603 5166.7344
Sep 13,
2018 428.75 72.037 30885.8638 183826.563 5189.32937
Sep 12,
2018 429.75 72.16 31010.76 184685.063 5207.0656
Sep 11,
2018 425.55 72.64 30911.952 181092.803 5276.5696
Sep 10,
2018 426.8 72.455 30923.794 182158.24 5249.72703
Sep 07,
2018 422.6 71.79 30338.454 178590.76 5153.8041
Sep 06,
2018 424.4 71.95 30535.58 180115.36 5176.8025
Sep 05,
2018 419.65 71.755 30111.9858 176106.123 5148.78003
Sep 04,
2018 415.75 71.585 29761.4638 172848.063 5124.41223
Sep 03,
2018 423.85 71.215 30184.4778 179648.823 5071.57623
Aug 31,
2018 414 71.005 29396.07 171396 5041.71003
Aug 30,
2018 422.25 70.745 29872.0763 178295.063 5004.85503
25
Aug 29,
2018 421.95 70.535 29762.2433 178041.803 4975.18623
Aug 28,
2018 423.25 70.1 29669.825 179140.563 4914.01
Aug 27,
2018 418.5 70.165 29364.0525 175142.25 4923.12723
Aug 24,
2018 416.25 69.97 29125.0125 173264.063 4895.8009
Aug 23,
2018 410.75 70.105 28795.6288 168715.563 4914.71103
Aug 22,
2018 412.2 69.87 28800.414 169908.84 4881.8169
Aug 21,
2018 416.05 69.86 29065.253 173097.603 4880.4196
Aug 20,
2018 412.1 69.82 28772.822 169826.41 4874.8324
Aug 17,
2018 407.65 70.1 28576.265 166178.523 4914.01
Aug 16,
2018 405.4 70.09 28414.486 164349.16 4912.6081
Aug 14,
2018 416.05 69.96 29106.858 173097.603 4894.4016
Aug 13,
2018 423.6 70.02 29660.472 179436.96 4902.8004
Aug 10,
2018 419.6 68.89 28906.244 176064.16 4745.8321
Aug 09,
2018 421.15 68.76 28958.274 177367.323 4727.9376
Aug 08,
2018 418 68.66 28699.88 174724 4714.1956
Aug 07,
2018 418.1 68.63 28694.203 174807.61 4710.0769
Aug 06,
2018 415.5 68.83 28598.865 172640.25 4737.5689
26
Aug 03,
2018 419.05 68.545 28723.7823 175602.903 4698.41703
Aug 02,
2018 416.85 68.625 28606.3313 173763.923 4709.39063
Aug 01,
2018 414.8 68.35 28351.58 172059.04 4671.7225
COPPER US DOLLAR
Date PRICES (X) RATE (Y) XY X2
Oct 11, 2018 459.25 74.05 34007.4625 210910.563
Oct 10, 2018 458.7 74.25 34058.475 210405.69
Oct 09, 2018 463.2 74.34 34434.288 214554.24
Oct 08, 2018 456.1 74.065 33781.0465 208027.21
Oct 05, 2018 456.55 73.77 33679.6935 208437.903
Oct 04, 2018 457.2 73.63 33663.636 209031.84
Oct 03, 2018 464.7 73.345 34083.4215 215946.09
Oct 01, 2018 454.95 72.925 33177.2288 206979.503
27
Sep 28, 2018 452.95 72.51 32843.4045 205163.703
Sep 27, 2018 448.35 72.57 32536.7595 201017.723
Sep 26, 2018 456.6 72.6 33149.16 208483.56
Sep 25, 2018 457.35 72.685 33242.4848 209169.023
Sep 24, 2018 459.1 72.67 33362.797 210772.81
Sep 21, 2018 458.15 72.24 33096.756 209901.423
Sep 20, 2018 438.85 72.015 31603.7828 192589.323
Sep 19, 2018 437.6 72.36 31664.736 191493.76
Sep 18, 2018 442 72.71 32137.82 195364
Sep 17, 2018 429.75 72.54 31174.065 184685.063
Sep 14, 2018 423.95 71.88 30473.526 179733.603
Sep 13, 2018 428.75 72.037 30885.8638 183826.563
Sep 12, 2018 429.75 72.16 31010.76 184685.063
Sep 11, 2018 425.55 72.64 30911.952 181092.803
Sep 10, 2018 426.8 72.455 30923.794 182158.24
Sep 07, 2018 422.6 71.79 30338.454 178590.76
Sep 06, 2018 424.4 71.95 30535.58 180115.36
Sep 05, 2018 419.65 71.755 30111.9858 176106.123
Sep 04, 2018 415.75 71.585 29761.4638 172848.063
Sep 03, 2018 423.85 71.215 30184.4778 179648.823
Aug 31,2018 414 71.005 29396.07 171396
Aug 30,2018 422.25 70.745 29872.0763 178295.063
Aug 29,2018 421.95 70.535 29762.2433 178041.803
Aug 28,2018 423.25 70.1 29669.825 179140.563
Aug 27,2018 418.5 70.165 29364.0525 175142.25
Aug 24,2018 416.25 69.97 29125.0125 173264.063
Aug 23,2018 410.75 70.105 28795.6288 168715.563
Aug 22,2018 412.2 69.87 28800.414 169908.84
Aug 21,2018 416.05 69.86 29065.253 173097.603
Aug 20,2018 412.1 69.82 28772.822 169826.41
Aug 17,2018 407.65 70.1 28576.265 166178.523
Aug 16,2018 405.4 70.09 28414.486 164349.16
Aug 14,2018 416.05 69.96 29106.858 173097.603
28
Aug 13,2018 423.6 70.02 29660.472 179436.96
Aug 10,2018 419.6 68.89 28906.244 176064.16
Aug 09,2018 421.15 68.76 28958.274 177367.323
Aug 08,2018 418 68.66 28699.88 174724
Aug 07,2018 418.1 68.63 28694.203 174807.61
Aug 06,2018 415.5 68.83 28598.865 172640.25
Aug 03,2018 419.05 68.545 28723.7823 175602.903
Aug 02,2018 416.85 68.625 28606.3313 173763.923
Aug 01,2018 414.8 68.35 28351.58 172059.04
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.822119
R Square 0.67588
Adjusted R
Square 0.669128
Standard Error 0.997112
Observations 50
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 99.51603 99.51603 100.0934 2.49E-13
Residual 48 47.72311 0.994231
Total 49 147.2391
29
Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
1.33E-
Intercept 37.23185 3.410893 10.91557 14
COPPER PRICES 2.49E-
(X) 0.079088 0.007905 10.00467 13
Interpretation:
From the data, we have calculated Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient between
the Copper prices and US Dollar. After calculating correlation coefficient. It
represents positive relationship between copper prices and US dollar correlation r
= 0.822119.
From the above data, we can understand that there is a direct relationship between
Copper prices and US Dollar rates to INR. When the Copper prices increases, US
Dollar rates to INR are also increases.
30
Model - 2: Relationship between Copper and BSE SENSEX
To determine the relationship between the Copper and BSE SENSEX. By using
Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient and regression of the data.
COPPER BSE -
Date PRICE (X) SENSEX (y) XY x2 y2
Oct 11,
2018 459.25 34001.15 15615028.1 210910.563 1156078201
Oct 10,
2018 458.7 34760.89 15944820.2 210405.69 1208319474
Oct 09,
2018 463.2 34299.47 15887514.5 214554.24 1176453642
Oct 08,
2018 456.1 34474.38 15723764.7 208027.21 1188482876
Oct 05,
2018 456.55 34376.99 15694814.8 208437.903 1181777441
Oct 04,
2018 457.2 35169.16 16079340 209031.84 1236869815
Oct 03,
2018 464.7 35975.63 16717875.3 215946.09 1294245954
Oct 01,
2018 454.95 36526.14 16617567.4 206979.503 1334158903
Sep 28,
2018 452.95 36227.14 16409083.1 205163.703 1312405673
Sep 27,
2018 448.35 36324.17 16285941.6 201017.723 1319445326
Sep 26,
2018 456.6 36542.27 16685200.5 208483.56 1335337497
Sep 25,
2018 457.35 36652.06 16762819.6 209169.023 1343373502
Sep 24,
2018 459.1 36305.02 16667634.7 210772.81 1318054477
31
Sep 21,
2018 458.15 36841.6 16878979 209901.423 1357303491
Sep 20,
2018 438.85 36841.6 16167936.2 192589.323 1357303491
Sep 19,
2018 437.6 37121.22 16244245.9 191493.76 1377984974
Sep 18,
2018 442 37290.67 16482476.1 195364 1390594069
Sep 17,
2018 429.75 37585.51 16152372.9 184685.063 1412670562
Sep 14,
2018 423.95 38090.64 16148526.8 179733.603 1450896856
Sep 13,
2018 428.75 38090.64 16331361.9 183826.563 1450896856
Sep 12,
2018 429.75 37717.96 16209293.3 184685.063 1422644507
Sep 11,
2018 425.55 37413.13 15921157.5 181092.803 1399742296
Sep 10,
2018 426.8 37922.17 16185182.2 182158.24 1438090978
Sep 07,
2018 422.6 38389.82 16223537.9 178590.76 1473778280
Sep 06,
2018 424.4 38242.81 16230248.6 180115.36 1462512517
Sep 05,
2018 419.65 38018.31 15954383.8 176106.123 1445391895
Sep 04,
2018 415.75 38157.92 15864155.2 172848.063 1456026859
Sep 03,
2018 423.85 38312.52 16238761.6 179648.823 1467849189
Aug 31,
2018 414 38645.07 15999059 171396 1493441435
Aug 30,
2018 422.25 38690.1 16336894.7 178295.063 1496923838
32
Aug 29,
2018 421.95 38772.93 16360237.8 178041.803 1503340101
Aug 28,
2018 423.25 38896.63 16462998.6 179140.563 1512947825
Aug 27,
2018 418.5 38694.11 16193485 175142.25 1497234149
Aug 24,
2018 416.25 38251.8 15922311.8 173264.063 1463200203
Aug 23,
2018 410.75 38366.76 15759146.7 168715.563 1472008273
Aug 22,
2018 412.2 38366.76 15814778.5 169908.84 1472008273
Aug 21,
2018 416.05 38285.75 15928786.3 173097.603 1465798653
Aug 20,
2018 412.1 38278.75 15774672.9 169826.41 1465262702
Aug 17,
2018 407.65 37947.88 15469453.3 166178.523 1440041596
Aug 16,
2018 405.4 37663.56 15268807.2 164349.16 1418543752
Aug 14,
2018 416.05 37852 15748324.6 173097.603 1432773904
Aug 13,
2018 423.6 37644.9 15946379.6 179436.96 1417138496
Aug 10,
2018 419.6 37869.23 15889928.9 176064.16 1434078581
Aug 09,
2018 421.15 38024.37 16013963.4 177367.323 1445852714
Aug 08,
2018 418 37887.56 15837000.1 174724 1435467203
Aug 07,
2018 418.1 37665.8 15748071 174807.61 1418712490
Aug 06,
2018 415.5 37691.89 15660980.3 172640.25 1420678572
33
Aug 03,
2018 419.05 37556.16 15737908.8 175602.903 1410465154
Aug 02,
2018 416.85 37165.16 15492296.9 173763.923 1381249118
Aug 01,
2018 414.8 37521.62 15563968 172059.04 1407871967
COPPER BSE -
Date PRICE (X) SENSEX (y) XY x2
Oct 11,
2018 459.25 34001.15 15615028.1 210910.563
Oct 10,
2018 458.7 34760.89 15944820.2 210405.69
Oct 09,
2018 463.2 34299.47 15887514.5 214554.24
Oct 08,
2018 456.1 34474.38 15723764.7 208027.21
Oct 05,
2018 456.55 34376.99 15694814.8 208437.903
34
Oct 04,
2018 457.2 35169.16 16079340 209031.84
Oct 03,
2018 464.7 35975.63 16717875.3 215946.09
Oct 01,
2018 454.95 36526.14 16617567.4 206979.503
Sep 28,
2018 452.95 36227.14 16409083.1 205163.703
Sep 27,
2018 448.35 36324.17 16285941.6 201017.723
Sep 26,
2018 456.6 36542.27 16685200.5 208483.56
Sep 25,
2018 457.35 36652.06 16762819.6 209169.023
Sep 24,
2018 459.1 36305.02 16667634.7 210772.81
Sep 21,
2018 458.15 36841.6 16878979 209901.423
Sep 20,
2018 438.85 36841.6 16167936.2 192589.323
Sep 19,
2018 437.6 37121.22 16244245.9 191493.76
Sep 18,
2018 442 37290.67 16482476.1 195364
Sep 17,
2018 429.75 37585.51 16152372.9 184685.063
Sep 14,
2018 423.95 38090.64 16148526.8 179733.603
Sep 13,
2018 428.75 38090.64 16331361.9 183826.563
Sep 12,
2018 429.75 37717.96 16209293.3 184685.063
Sep 11,
2018 425.55 37413.13 15921157.5 181092.803
35
Sep 10,
2018 426.8 37922.17 16185182.2 182158.24
Sep 07,
2018 422.6 38389.82 16223537.9 178590.76
Sep 06,
2018 424.4 38242.81 16230248.6 180115.36
Sep 05,
2018 419.65 38018.31 15954383.8 176106.123
Sep 04,
2018 415.75 38157.92 15864155.2 172848.063
Sep 03,
2018 423.85 38312.52 16238761.6 179648.823
Aug 31,
2018 414 38645.07 15999059 171396
Aug 30,
2018 422.25 38690.1 16336894.7 178295.063
Aug 29,
2018 421.95 38772.93 16360237.8 178041.803
Aug 28,
2018 423.25 38896.63 16462998.6 179140.563
Aug 27,
2018 418.5 38694.11 16193485 175142.25
Aug 24,
2018 416.25 38251.8 15922311.8 173264.063
Aug 23,
2018 410.75 38366.76 15759146.7 168715.563
Aug 22,
2018 412.2 38366.76 15814778.5 169908.84
Aug 21,
2018 416.05 38285.75 15928786.3 173097.603
Aug 20,
2018 412.1 38278.75 15774672.9 169826.41
Aug 17,
2018 407.65 37947.88 15469453.3 166178.523
36
Aug 16,
2018 405.4 37663.56 15268807.2 164349.16
Aug 14,
2018 416.05 37852 15748324.6 173097.603
Aug 13,
2018 423.6 37644.9 15946379.6 179436.96
Aug 10,
2018 419.6 37869.23 15889928.9 176064.16
Aug 09,
2018 421.15 38024.37 16013963.4 177367.323
Aug 08,
2018 418 37887.56 15837000.1 174724
Aug 07,
2018 418.1 37665.8 15748071 174807.61
Aug 06,
2018 415.5 37691.89 15660980.3 172640.25
Aug 03,
2018 419.05 37556.16 15737908.8 175602.903
Aug 02,
2018 416.85 37165.16 15492296.9 173763.923
Aug 01,
2018 414.8 37521.62 15563968 172059.04
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.841601
R Square 0.708293
Adjusted R Square 0.702216
Standard Error 691.3818
Observations 50
37
ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 55711229 55711229 116.5485 1.95E-14
Residual 48 22944422 478008.8
Total 49 78655651
Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
2.36E-
Intercept 62819.01 2365.061 26.56127 30
COPPER 1.95E-
PRICE (X) -59.1749 5.481302 -10.7958 14
Interpretation:
From the data, we have calculated Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient between
the Copper prices and BSE SENSEX. After calculating correlation coefficient. It
represents Negative relationship between copper prices and BSE SENSEX
correlation r = -0.8416.
From the above data, we can understand that there is an Inverse relationship
between Copper prices and BSE – SENSEX Index. When the Copper prices
increases, BSE – SENSEX Index point is decreases.
38
Model – 3: Analyses the fluctuations of Copper prices with
comparisons of US Dollar
Copper US Dollar
Date Differences Differences
price to INR
Aug 01,
414.8 68.35
2018
Aug 02,
416.85 2.05 68.625 0.275
2018
Aug 03,
419.05 2.2 68.545 -0.08
2018
Aug 06,
415.5 -3.55 68.83 0.285
2018
Aug 07,
418.1 2.6 68.63 -0.2
2018
Aug 08,
418 -0.1 68.66 0.03
2018
Aug 09,
421.15 3.15 68.76 0.1
2018
Aug 10,
419.6 -1.55 68.89 0.13
2018
Aug 13,
423.6 4 70.02 1.13
2018
Aug 14,
416.05 -7.55 69.96 -0.06
2018
Aug 16,
405.4 -10.65 70.09 0.13
2018
Aug 17,
407.65 2.25 70.1 0.01
2018
Aug 20,
412.1 4.45 69.82 -0.28
2018
Aug 21,
416.05 3.95 69.86 0.04
2018
Aug 22,
412.2 -3.85 69.87 0.01
2018
Aug 23,
410.75 -1.45 70.105 0.235
2018
Aug 24,
416.25 5.5 69.97 -0.135
2018
Aug 27,
418.5 2.25 70.165 0.195
2018
Aug 28,
423.25 4.75 70.1 -0.065
2018
Aug 29,
421.95 -1.3 70.535 0.435
2018
39
Aug 30,
422.25 0.3 70.745 0.21
2018
Aug 31,
414 -8.25 71.005 0.26
2018
Sep 03,
423.85 9.85 71.215 0.21
2018
Sep 04,
415.75 -8.1 71.585 0.37
2018
Sep 05,
419.65 3.9 71.755 0.17
2018
Sep 06,
424.4 4.75 71.95 0.195
2018
Sep 07,
422.6 -1.8 71.79 -0.16
2018
Sep 10,
426.8 4.2 72.455 0.665
2018
Sep 11,
425.55 -1.25 72.64 0.185
2018
Sep 12,
429.75 4.2 72.16 -0.48
2018
Sep 13,
428.75 -1 72.037 -0.123
2018
Sep 14,
423.95 -4.8 71.88 -0.157
2018
Sep 17,
429.75 5.8 72.54 0.66
2018
Sep 18,
442 12.25 72.71 0.17
2018
Sep 19,
437.6 -4.4 72.36 -0.35
2018
Sep 20,
438.85 1.25 72.015 -0.345
2018
Sep 21,
458.15 19.3 72.24 0.225
2018
Sep 24,
459.1 0.95 72.67 0.43
2018
Sep 25,
457.35 -1.75 72.685 0.015
2018
Sep 26,
456.6 -0.75 72.6 -0.085
2018
Sep 27,
448.35 -8.25 72.57 -0.03
2018
Sep 28,
452.95 4.6 72.51 -0.06
2018
Oct 01,
454.95 2 72.925 0.415
2018
Oct 03,
464.7 9.75 73.345 0.42
2018
Oct 04,
457.2 -7.5 73.63 0.285
2018
40
Oct 05,
456.55 -0.65 73.77 0.14
2018
Oct 08,
456.1 -0.45 74.065 0.295
2018
Oct 09,
463.2 7.1 74.34 0.275
2018
Oct 10,
458.7 -4.5 74.25 -0.09
2018
Oct 11,
459.25 0.55 74.05 -0.2
2018
Copper prices
470
460
450
440
430
420
410
400
390
380
370
Aug 09, 2018
Aug 01, 2018
Aug 03, 2018
Aug 07, 2018
Copper prices
41
Figure 4.2 shows the movement of US Dollar to INR rates from
01-08-2018 to 11-10-2018.
US Dollar to INR
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
Aug 01, 2018
Aug 03, 2018
Aug 07, 2018
Aug 09, 2018
Aug 13, 2018
Aug 16, 2018
Aug 20, 2018
Aug 22, 2018
Aug 24, 2018
Aug 28, 2018
Aug 30, 2018
Sep 03, 2018
Sep 05, 2018
Sep 07, 2018
Sep 11, 2018
Sep 13, 2018
Sep 17, 2018
Sep 19, 2018
Sep 21, 2018
Sep 25, 2018
Sep 27, 2018
Oct 01, 2018
Oct 04, 2018
Oct 08, 2018
Oct 10, 2018
US Dollar to INR
Interpretation:
The above data analyses that, in the first day August 01, 2018. Copper price is ₹
414.8, on the same day the dollar rate is ₹ 68.35. The last day October 11, 2018.
Copper price is ₹459.25 and the dollar rate is ₹ 74.05.
From the above data, we can understand that there is a direct relationship between
Copper prices and US Dollar rates to INR. When the Copper prices increases, US
Dollar rates to INR are also increases.
42
Model – 4: Analyses The fluctuations of Copper prices with
comparisons of BSE – SENSEX Index.
Copper
Date Differences BSE - Differences
price SENSEX
Aug 01,
414.8
2018 37521.62
Aug 02,
416.85 2.05
2018 37165.16 -356.46
Aug 03,
419.05 2.2
2018 37556.16 391
Aug 06,
415.5 -3.55
2018 37691.89 135.73
Aug 07,
418.1 2.6
2018 37665.8 -26.09
Aug 08,
418 -0.1
2018 37887.56 221.76
Aug 09,
421.15 3.15
2018 38024.37 136.81
Aug 10,
419.6 -1.55
2018 37869.23 -155.14
Aug 13,
423.6 4
2018 37644.9 -224.33
Aug 14,
416.05 -7.55
2018 37852 207.1
Aug 16,
405.4 -10.65
2018 37663.56 -188.44
Aug 17,
407.65 2.25
2018 37947.88 284.32
Aug 20,
412.1 4.45
2018 38278.75 330.87
Aug 21,
416.05 3.95
2018 38285.75 7
Aug 22,
412.2 -3.85
2018 38366.76 81.01
Aug 23,
410.75 -1.45
2018 38366.76 0
Aug 24,
416.25 5.5
2018 38251.8 -114.96
Aug 27,
418.5 2.25
2018 38694.11 442.31
Aug 28,
423.25 4.75
2018 38896.63 202.52
Aug 29,
421.95 -1.3
2018 38772.93 -123.7
43
Aug 30,
422.25 0.3
2018 38690.1 -82.83
Aug 31,
414 -8.25
2018 38645.07 -45.03
Sep 03,
423.85 9.85
2018 38312.52 -332.55
Sep 04,
415.75 -8.1
2018 38157.92 -154.6
Sep 05,
419.65 3.9
2018 38018.31 -139.61
Sep 06,
424.4 4.75
2018 38242.81 224.5
Sep 07,
422.6 -1.8
2018 38389.82 147.01
Sep 10,
426.8 4.2
2018 37922.17 -467.65
Sep 11,
425.55 -1.25
2018 37413.13 -509.04
Sep 12,
429.75 4.2
2018 37717.96 304.83
Sep 13,
428.75 -1
2018 38090.64 372.68
Sep 14,
423.95 -4.8
2018 38090.64 0
Sep 17,
429.75 5.8
2018 37585.51 -505.13
Sep 18,
442 12.25
2018 37290.67 -294.84
Sep 19,
437.6 -4.4
2018 37121.22 -169.45
Sep 20,
438.85 1.25
2018 36841.6 -279.62
Sep 21,
458.15 19.3
2018 36841.6 0
Sep 24,
459.1 0.95
2018 36305.02 -536.58
Sep 25,
457.35 -1.75
2018 36652.06 347.04
Sep 26,
456.6 -0.75
2018 36542.267 -109.793
Sep 27,
448.35 -8.25
2018 36324.17 -218.097
Sep 28,
452.95 4.6
2018 36227.14 -97.03
Oct 01,
454.95 2
2018 36526.14 299
Oct 03,
464.7 9.75
2018 35975.63 -550.51
Oct 04,
457.2 -7.5
2018 35169.16 -806.47
44
Oct 05,
456.55 -0.65
2018 34376.99 -792.17
Oct 08,
456.1 -0.45
2018 34474.38 97.39
Oct 09,
463.2 7.1
2018 34299.47 -174.91
Oct 10,
458.7 -4.5
2018 34760.89 461.42
Oct 11,
459.25 0.55
2018 34001.15 -759.74
Copper price
470
460
450
440
430
420
410
400
390
380
370
Aug 09, 2018
Aug 01, 2018
Aug 03, 2018
Aug 07, 2018
Copper price
45
Figure 4.4 shows the movement of BSE – SENSEX Index from 01-
08-2018 to 11-10-2018.
BSE - SENSEX
40000
39000
38000
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
Aug 16, 2018
Interpretation:
The above data analyses that, in the first day August 01, 2018. Copper price is ₹
414.8, on the same day the BSE – SENSEX Index point is 37521.62. The last day
October 11, 2018. Copper price is ₹459.25 and the BSE – SENSEX Index point is
34001.15
From the above data, we can understand that there is an Inverse relationship
between Copper prices and BSE – SENSEX Index. When the Copper prices
increases, BSE – SENSEX Index point is decreases.
46
CHAPTER – 5
47
Findings:
Copper prices and US dollar rates are showing positive relation. Because
when a commodity price change, it automatically effects on US Dollar.
Copper prices and BSE Sensex points are showing negative relation.
Because when the Sensex is performing, well the commodity market in
India will go down.
There are some other factors influencing the copper prices are demand and
supplies in domestic and international markets.
Conclusion:
Metal places a major role in Indian economy and copper commodity contributes a
major part in the gross domestic product of our country. The demand and supply
side of copper market in India is the factor behind the fluctuation on metal price.
Based on study we conclude that copper commodity prices has an influence on
dollar value and BSE – SENSEX. Raise in prices of copper commodities has an
impact on Indian commodity market and financial markets.
48
References
Chathurved, V. (2012, june 29). the hindu. Retrieved from www.thehindu.com:
https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-kerala/vital-role-for-
commodity-market-in-the-growth-of-economy/article3583472.ece
IMF. (2010). Global prospects and policies. Washington, DC.: International Monitary
Fund.
https://www.mcxindia.com
https://in.investing.com/currencies/usd-inr-historical-data
https://in.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EBSESN/history?p=%5EBSESN
49