Students Name: Jawad , Ifthikar, Farooq, Irtaza, Ahmad, Mubeen

Roll no: 1802,1809,1825,1830,1835,1836

Subject: Sociology

Semester: 5th

Department: BS(Computer Science)

Session: 2016-2020

Topic: Theory of Overpopulation

Submitted To: Sir Tahir

Government Postgraduate College Samanabad Faisalabad

 THEORY OF POPULATION GROWTH

In pre-modern societies, birth rates were very high by the standards of industrialized world
today.
Nonetheless, population growth quite was low until the 18th century because there was a rough
overall balance between births and deaths. The general trend of the numbers was upwards, and
there were sometimes periods of more marked population increase, but these were followed by
increase in death rates.
During the period of the rise industrialism, many looked forward to a new age in which scarcity
would be a phenomenon of the past. The development of modern industry, it was widely
supposed, would create a new era of abundance in which standards of living would rise. These
ideas were criticized by Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834), a clergyman and an economist.

Malthusian Theory of Population

In 1798 Malthus published an Essay on the Principle of Population. By analyzing the then
prevailing situation in different countries Malthus initiated a debate about the connection
between population and food resources that continues to this day. His premise was that:

(1) Food was necessary for the continuation of life.

(2) Procreation was also necessary for the continuation of life.

Necessity of food for human survival is to continue, similarly the passions between the sexes are
to continue, and both are natural necessities of life.
But the two necessary factors of human life grow at different rate. Whereas population size
increases geometrically (2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64), the food supply increases arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6,). Population size therefore, always pushes against the limits of food supply needed to
support the population. There is a limit to increase the food supply by bringing more land under
cultivation but there is limit to that. With the existing rate of growth, the population was
expected to double every 25 years.
For such a high growth rate of population, human beings should adopt such measures to check
the growth of population. In his opinion the population checks were:

a. Preventive checks, and

b. Positive checks.
Among the preventive checks, Malthus recommended

(1) To follow celibacy

(2) To marry late

(3) Abstinence from entering into sexual unions resulting in procreation. If human beings don’t
adopt the “preventive checks”, “positive checks” come into operation in the form of famine,
epidemics, war, and other natural calamities, and a lot of population is wiped out. For the
remaining population food supply may be sufficient, though it may be a temporary relief.

There has been lot of criticism of Malthusian theory of population by arguing that:

1. Malthus did not visualize the power of science and technology with the help of which the food
supply could be revolutionized. Even one country like Canada could produce so much of wheat
that could be sufficient for the whole of the world. But will Canada supply wheat free?
Not at all. Even if it is free some countries may not even have the ability to bear the
transportation costs.

2. Malthus did not advocate the use of contraceptives as a means of preventive measure, though
these were available during his times. Being a clergyman perhaps he did not consider the
advocacy of the use of contraceptives as appropriate.

3. Malthus presented a too pessimistic picture of the growth of population. Population of many
technologically advanced countries did not follow his predictions.

Nevertheless, the essay on population growth by Malthus generated lot of discussion on the
topic, and Malthus may rightly be considered as the father of population studies. The more
guarded outlook is that we no longer could use technology as an excuse to ignore Malthus.

Theory of Demographic Transition

Demographic transition theory links birth rates and death rates to a society’s level of
industrialization – the process by which a society’s economy shifts from a predominantly
agricultural and handicraft base to a predominantly industrial and large scale manufacturing
base. There are four stages in the demographic transition as seen in the figure.
During the pre-industrial stage, high birth rates are balanced by high death rates, and population
size remains fairly stable. Today the least industrialized nations of the world are in this
demographic stage.

During stage 2, the stage of increasing industrialization, the death rate falls primarily because of
the improved sanitation, hygiene, and medical conditions. The birth rate, however, remains high
because of the continued influence of traditional values favoring large families. Having several
children ensures survival of at least some of them when infant mortality is high.

During this stage the imbalance between the falling death rate and the high birth rate results in
high population growth. Pakistan like many other developing nations is in this stage of transition.
At the third stage the traditional values give way to modern values favoring contraception and
family planning. Birth rates decline as a result of later ages at marriage, urbanization,
industrialization, rising aspirations, and other factors. The mortality rates eventually stabilize at
low level and birth rates follow.

The shift from high to low mortality and fertility is known as the “demographic transition”. This
shift occurred throughout Europe, North America, and a number of other areas in the 19th and
early 20th centuries, and started in many developing countries in the middle of 20th century.
Although the pace and paths of decline varied tremendously among countries, the demographic
transition emerged as the dominant model of demographic change.

At the fourth stage the birth rates fall to about the same level as mortality rates. With births and
deaths at similar low levels, the equilibrium of slow population growth is regained. The pace of
change in a country varies depending on its culture, level of economic development, and other
factors. As countries pass through the various stages of the transition, population growth from
natural increase (birth rate - death rate) accelerates or decelerates depending upon the gap
between birth rate and the death rate. Many developing countries are in an intermediate stage, in
which mortality and fertility are falling at varying rates but are still high relative to the levels of
Europe and other more developed areas.

Many low-fertility countries have entered what some describe as a “second demographic
transition” in which fertility falls below the two-child replacement level as forces of
contemporary life interfere with childbearing. This transition has been linked with greater
educational and job opportunities for women, the availability of effective contraception, a shift
away from formal marriage, the acceptance of childbearing outside marriage, and the rise of
individualism and materialism.

Experts disagree about whether all countries will follow the transition experienced in Europe and
about whether there are additional stages of transition that we have not identified – long-term
population decline, for example. But the demographic transition theory provides a useful
framework for assessing demographic trends and projecting future population size.
THE GLOBAL POPULATION SITUATION - AN OVERVIEW
While the facts of overpopulation are very challenging, remember: we can choose our future.
Forecasts might lead you to believe that a population of 9,10, or even 11 billion is inevitable. But
a dramatic and voluntary reduction in births starting now can begin to create a more positive and
sustainable future for out planet. See our "Help Us Now" section to learn what you can do!

World Population in 2018 reached 7.5 billion. It has doubled in the past 45 years! Earth's
population is increasing by over 140 people every minute ... equivalent to another Los Angeles
plus another Chicago every month. Over the past few hundred years humanity's growth in sheer
numbers has been truly explosive! Right now, with over 7 billion of us: We are ravaging wildlife
populations. The number of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish across the globe is,
on average, less than half the size it was 50 years ago.

1) We are rapidly losing farmland. An area of cultivated land the size of Iowa and Wisconsin
combined (75 million acres) is lost every year due to soil erosion and urban sprawl.

2) We are rapidly destroying forests. Between 2000 and 2012 the Earth average a net loss every
year of forested land about the size of Ohio (over 30 million acres).

3) We are consuming non-renewable resources - fossil fuels, minerals, and metals - at an

enormous rate. Over time, these resources are decreasing in quality and increasing in cost. We
are depleting global groundwater over 3 times faster than rainfall can recharge aquifers.

4) By 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity,
and 2/3 of the world population could be under water stress conditions.

5) We are eroding soil 10-40 times faster than soil can naturally form.

6) We are over-fishing, acidifying, and polluting our oceans.

7) We are rapidly disrupting the relatively stable climate that human civilization and all other
species have experienced for thousands of years through our greenhouse gas emissions.

8) We are creating massive amounts of waste and pollution.

Each of us contributes to:

1) Proliferation of ocean "dead zones" and dying coral reefs.

2) Rivers, lakes, and underground aquifers filling with industrial and agricultural pollution.

3) Soil contamination.

4) Destruction and fouling of other species' habitats.

CAUSES OF OVER POPULATION IN PAKISTAN
A very high birth rate has led to a growth rate of 2.1 % in Pakistani population. As we know that
per capita income derives by dividing national income on total population. Low per capita
income shows the population explosion. Per capita income in Pakistan is about $ 1254. Another
symbol of overpopulation is unemployment and it becomes difficult to adjust the huge
population in economic activities. The rate of unemployment in Pakistan is 5.6 %. Several
factors are responsible for this population explosion in Pakistan:

• A single person cannot support his family in developing countries like Pakistan. He assumes
that if he has more children there will be more earning hands to support the family.

• Due to illiteracy, people are not aware of the economic problems caused by a high birth rate.
Lack of thorough religious knowledge and some self-made beliefs also contribute.

• Family planning available in Pakistan isn’t that effective. Most of the people are not familiar
with the methods of family planning further they feel hesitation to consult for that as well.

• Getting married at an early age like between 16 to 22 years in Pakistanis infect increases the
duration for re-productivity in a woman’s life.

• Sometimes competition among the family members in accordance with the family size
especially in the joint family system is one of the causes.

• Polygamy is the condition or practice of having more than one wife at one time. The existence
of polygamy also contributes to the increase in population. People feel the pride to have a large
family.

• Lack of recreational facilities and employment opportunities in Pakistan is also a

contributing factor. The only recreational activity a couple can have is passing time together.
SOLUTION TO OVERPOPULATION
Better Education: One of the first measures is to implement policies reflecting social change.
Educating the masses helps them understand the need to have one or two children at the most.
Similarly, education plays a vital role in understanding latest technologies like Cloud Desktop
Online that are making huge waves in the world of computing. Families that are facing a hard
life and choose to have four or five children should be discouraged. Family planning and
efficient birth control can help in women making their own reproductive choices. Open dialogue
on abortion and voluntary sterilization should be seen when talking about overpopulation.

Making People Aware of Family Planning: As population of this world is growing at a rapid
pace, raising awareness among people regarding family planning and letting them know about
serious after effects of overpopulation can help curb population growth. One of the best way is to
let them know about various safe sex techniques and contraceptives methods available to avoid
any unwanted pregnancy.

Tax Benefits or Concessions: Government of various countries might have to come with
various policies related to tax exemptions to curb overpopulation. One of them might be to waive
of certain part of income tax or lowering rates of income tax for those married couples who have
single or two children. As we humans are more inclined towards money, this may produce some
positive results.

DEVELOPMENT

Why the enormous population and the increasing rate of it is the biggest challenge faced by the
developing nations of Africa and Asia while the same is a little or no threat in countries like
America, Europe or Japan. Lack of Development implies high poverty, high illiteracy, high
discrimination, lack of awareness, lack of medical facilities and thus in turn increased population
growth. Any economy is termed developed is its population is non-discriminated and just. By
reducing discrimination between gender and class and ensuring development of the whole
population instead of a given segment of society would eliminate the challenge of population
growth for once.

EASY AND CHEAP AVAILABILITY OF CONTRACEPTIVES

Ensuring that people have easy and cheap access to contraception tools will help avoiding cases
of unwanted pregnancies and births. Every state owned hospital should be made to provide
cheaply efficient birth control medicines or surgeries since poor people have neither the means
not awareness to use contraception. Use of condoms and contraceptives must be advertised and
promoted along with ensuring cheap and ready access to these. Contraceptives do not only prove
to be an important population control measure but also prevents spreading of sexually
transmitted diseases like AIDS thus ensuring small healthy families.
EDUCATION

Education forms the backbone of an individual and economy. Once educated people know and
understand the harms which a high population growth rate possesses. Education, especially
women education, can work wonders in controlling population. An educated man and woman
can readily understand the benefits of a small family. Without sufficient education most
measures like awareness campaigns and women empowerment will prove to be insufficient and
pointless.

ERADICATE POVERTY

Why most poor countries have highest population growth instead of rich ones. Poverty has a
direct relation to the population growth. In developing countries of Asia and Africa, child labor,
slave trading and human trafficking is highly prevalent. African countries for example still have
maximum reporting of slave trading though trading of humans is legally banned everywhere in
the world. People give birth to kids and sell them to rich people who in turn employ these kids in
various laborious and unethical tasks. If not sell, these parents force their kids to beg or work at a
very tender so as to earn some extra money for the family. These people believe that more kids
mean more hands for begging and work and thus more money. Without concrete measures for
growth and poverty eradication, other methods of population control may prove to be ineffective.

WOMEN EMPOWERMENT

In most developing countries, the women folks are not considered equivalent to men in terms of
force and might. Such opinions are extremely common in Islamic countries and even India and
Bangladesh. Gender discrimination is a major reason for population growth. People keep giving
birth to kids in order to have more sons than daughters. Empowering woman with a say in
matters concerning them like child birth and educating them to fight against discrimination will
ensure a healthy and aware society.

SPREAD AWARENESS

People need to be told and made to understand the consequences of having too many children.
Government and non-government institutions can carry awareness campaigns informing people
how they will be unable to provide good nutrition, education or medical facilities to their
children if they have too many. Population is also a reason for illiteracy and diseases and
malnutrition and the negative effects of it are required to be communicated to the general public
to expand their reasoning and understanding.
LEGISLATIVE ACTIONS

Not much result can be achieved from these if family planning and use of contraception remains
optional instead of mandatory. Strict legal steps are required for child marriage, education,
abolition of child labor and beggary and family planning to reap significant benefits from it.
Proper enforcement of laws related to child labor, slavery and beggary will ensure that parents
don’t sell their children or send them out to work thus forcing them to raise lesser number of
kids.

MEDICAL FACILITIES

One big drawback of developing countries is that of limited and highly centric medical facilities.
Because of the high rural-urban divide in developing countries, availability of good hospitals and
doctors is limited to urban centers thus resulting in high infant mortality rate in rural areas. Rural
people, in order to ensure that at least some of their kids survive, give birth to more and more
kids thus contributing to the population growth. If provided with optimum medical facilities
population rate will almost certainly decline.

DELAYED MARRIAGES

The problem of child marriage is highly prominent in certain countries with high population like
India, Pakistan or Bangladesh. A marriage at a tender age leads to a long span for giving birth.
Also young age marriage devoid people of the education and awareness required to be sensitive
towards and understand the consequences of raising too many children. A UN report has
suggested that there would be a significant decline in world population if the legal for marriage is
made 20 years.