Dolan1

Tyler Dolan
Professor Cynthia Mazzant
English 137H
25 November 2018
Present and Future Implications of Artificial Intelligence on Employment

Mark Zuckerberg’s foresees “tens of millions” of jobs displaced by automatons in the

transportation industry alone. Elon Musk believes society will eventually need “Universal Basic

Income” to sustain productivity and happiness (Adamson). Artificial intelligence (AI) has

erupted into everyday life, and even eminent technological geniuses, like Zuckerberg and Musk,

anticipate significant change to both the business world and to daily life. The commencement of

the AI driven “fourth-industrial revolution” has especially strong indications on the long-term

job market and the future of economic policy. While the magnitude of change will vary by

industry and position, the burgeoning technology will influence nearly all business sectors. The

invocation of AI for various small and specific tasks has progressed to its implementation in

practical, long-term, and historically human projects. The quickly advancing technology will

soon undertake a significantly greater number of previously human-filled roles, creating an

unprecedented alteration in the job market for the foreseeable future.

Pre-modern AI focused on mastering strategy games and performing tedious tasks, giving

the technology minimal functionality and no influence on daily life. In the early 1990s, TD-

Gammon began beating Backgammon world champions; shortly thereafter in 1996, Deep Blue

defeated the reigning world Chess champion Garry Kasparov; and approximately a decade later,

programmers perfected Chinook, a by-definition unbeatable checkers computer (Lee, Deep,

Nelson). More practically, iRobot released the first self-directed cleaning robot, Roomba, in

2002, and three years later, Honda created ASIMO, a robotic restaurant waiter (iRobot, ASIMO).
 Dolan2

Not until 2009 did more modern and revolutionarily useful automations appear, and their

presence quickly began to make an impact.

While the AI revolution began long before, only in the last decade has the technology

rendered any significant effect on everyday life. In 2009, Google initiated these practical changes

by attempting to revolutionize the transportation industry with self-driving cars (Markoff). The

following year, Siri Inc. created the phone app SIRI, which served as an AI assistant for small,

phone-based tasks (Bosker). Since its release, Apple has acquired Siri Inc. and proceeded to

implement the technology on all of its devices since the iPhone 4S, making the personal assistant

a part of about 500 million peoples’ daily lives (Dormehl, Maggio). IBM’s Watson and Google

DeepMind’s Alpha also deserve mention as these companies and their respective softwares have

begun to pioneer machine learning as the most efficient development for modern AI.

Timeline of Selected Events within Artificial Intelligence’s Progression through 2017

 Dolan3

Despite the long-term progression of AI, the inception of machine learning has especially

unique implications on the job market. The first real, large-scale threats to human jobs have

arisen, with the transportation and restaurant industries being most affected. As of 2018, self-

driving Ubers have appeared in Pittsburgh and have begun to completely replace human drivers

(Self-driving Ubers). Lyft followed suit by introducing a self-driving service in Las Vegas, and

the company continues to advocate for more widespread adoption of autonomous transportation

(Moon, Self-driving Lyft). Outside of transportation, automatons have made appearances in bars

and eateries as well. A humanoid robot named Tipsy serves cocktails at various locations in Las

Vegas, and Carl, another robot bartender, performs all of the tasks a human bartender would,

including “small talk” with customers (Salkever, Vorsprung). Further disrupting the restaurant

industry, Flippy the automated fry-cook now operates in 60 restaurants and has proven more

effective than human cooks since the machine can both work unlimited hours and use embedded

technology to sense the optimal cook-time for the food. Osara, a food service and packaging

robot, learned its entire job through experiential, trial-and-error based teaching; this machine’s

accomplishment with food-packaging tasks progresses AI one step further towards generalized

machine learning, which would allow for AI to pervade into nearly every industry (Salkever).

Some of these current advancements seem insignificant, but the prospects of general

machine learning and fully autonomous AI, alongside the rapid technological progress made in

these areas, implicate noteworthy potential change. In 2013, Frey and Osbourne published the

most cited data regarding the effect of AI on employment, which indicates that 47% of American

jobs could experience computerization within two decades (Frey, West, Masayuki). More recent

estimates predict 20-25% total job loss by 2030, with up to 54% of positions susceptible (Harris,
 Dolan4

West). Exceptionally melodramatic estimates extend to 99% job penetration of AI, but no

empirical evidence exists for this type of statement (McClelland).

While some of these statistics appear severe, AI will completely eliminate far fewer

professions than it will undertake specific tasks within. McKinsey analysts estimate that AI will

completely eliminate only 5% of professions but will participate in up to 60% (Manyika et. Al,

Chui et. Al, Dastagir). The eradicated 5% of jobs lie within the “highly automatable” category,

which McKinsey analysts predict will comprise of about 14% of jobs by 2030. Beyond this,

another 32% of professions have significant potential for computerization, but will not

completely fall to the technology (West, Manyika et. Al.).

Visual representation of number of workers in jobs with 0-25%, etc. susceptibility to automation.
(Automation Could)

With current technologies and the development of general machine learning, especially

automatable professions include those that require moderate intellectual capabilities and

education but tend to consist of more tedious tasks (McClelland). This makes accountants,

journalists, salespeople, and clerical workers more susceptible to displacement, while software
 Dolan5

engineers, human resource specialists, and data analysts have far less to worry about (Perisic).

PricewaterhouseCoopers’s analysts predict the moderately educated demographic to suffer the

most until the late 2020’s, with about 25% susceptibility to computerization (Hawksworth).

Falling into the education-required but tedious task category, bankers and finance

professionals will experience significant hardship in finding and keeping a job. Boston

Consulting Group analysts predict 23% of banking and insurance positions will disappear or

become nearly completely automated, while the remaining will experience drastic changes in

structure and productivity (He). Entry-level positions will comprise most of the cut jobs, which

will mitigate the potential for entering a company soon after college and “climbing the corporate

ladder” (Wang). The decrease in the progression potential in both financially focused and other

automatable careers will contribute to the middle-class’s deterioration, as many graduates will

fall into either high- or low-paying positions with little opportunity for anything in between

(Harris et. Al.).

A visual representation of the Chinese financial job market in the near future. The bars to the
right specify the criteria for deeming a profession “Replaced by AI” or “Not replaced by AI”.
(Proportion of)
 Dolan6

By effectively removing a significant portion of the job market for moderately educated

individuals, the middle-class will suffer thereby increasing the wage gap between high-earners

and their lower-paid counterparts. McKinsey analysts foresee the decline of jobs demanding

moderate pay, since many of these positions, such as those which McKinsey deems “office

support” or “predictable physical work,” have high potential for computerization (How will).

Conversely, most high-paying jobs have significantly lower susceptibility to automation, making

healthcare professionals, technology experts, and business leaders more likely to retain both their

professions and their wages. Many low-paying jobs behave similarly, as AI cannot replace most

educators, nurses, and social workers, making these positions relatively stable (Manyika). Since

AI will remove many middle-class professions but leave the wage extremes relatively untouched,

the economic class gap will necessarily increase.

While AI will mitigate many careers, the technology has the potential to create far more

positions than it eliminates. Analysts conservatively predict that AI induced alterations in

businesses’ structures will create about 50 million positions by 2030 (Manyika et. Al.). More

aggressive estimates range up to an 890 million job increase, with most predictions settling at

approximately 500 million by 2030 (Manyika, Rao et. al). In the 2020s, Bain’s analysts predict

the American labor market will decrease to 0.4% annually from over 1% today, indicating that

AI will eliminate jobs but at a rate which still allows for job growth (Harris et. Al.). The

positions created will require more complex, human-specific skills such as emotional and logical

intelligence; employment will especially grow in creative, technology, healthcare, and academic

industries due to the lack of susceptibility to computerization (Manyika et. Al, Manyika, How

will).
 Dolan7

The computerization of technical and manual skills drastically decreases the demand for

such capabilities, making communication, creativity, and emotional skills significantly more

valuable and desirable in both the positions remaining after, and those created by, AI’s

infiltration of the job market. The McKinsey Global Institute predicts the demand for complex

processing, social, and technological skills will increase on average 24%. Meanwhile, the hours

worked for more classical skills, such as physical and basic processing, will decrease by 15% on

average (Manyika).

Visual representation of the forecasted change in hours worked by skill in Europe and America
(Total Hours Worked)

The expanding wage gap and change in demand for certain skills will increase the value

of a college and post-graduate education and make the former effectively mandatory for any non-

minimum wage career. In college, many develop the creativity and intuition skills necessary in

the new workforce, making an undergraduate education crucial for success in AI driven job

market (Heckler). While the moderately educated often progress into the moderately

compensated, a group with quickly diminishing ranks, the fundamental social skills and

intellectual capabilities necessary to progress into high-paying positions often come from formal

education. Even low-paying but secure and potentially eudemonic professions, such as nursing or

teaching, require some education to pursue. Furthermore, while more speculative, AI could
 Dolan8

progress to nearly complete autonomy in the 2030s, making human customer service, retail, and

other low-education positions obsolete; pursuing a college education will provide the best

opportunities for either financial or personal success.

AI will still influence the majority of the remaining human-filled careers, and use will

drastically increase efficiency within most of these professions. Regarding workforce

productivity, analysts from PricewaterhouseCoopers explicitly state, “People will still work, but

they’ll work more efficiently with the help of AI” (Rao et. Al). Experts from Boston Consulting

Group agree with the prediction of increased efficiency with AI, as the technology will allow

humans and computers to work together to accomplish difficult tasks quickly (He). Evidence for

the collaboration potential exists in Centaur Chess, in which a human and a chess computer play

together (deemed a centaur) against a non-centaur opponent; the human-computer team almost

always outperforms humans and computers playing alone (Cassidy). Future collaboration will

allow for further industrial specialization in which humans will assume managerial and

communications roles, while AI will perform manual labor and data analysis; this advanced

specialization will allow for optimized working efficiency across all sectors, as each worker,

human and machine, can succeed in a defined and useful position.

Fueled by past and present developments, self-taught, nearly autonomous AI will

infiltrate all sectors of society, making work and life more efficient, but threatening hundreds of

millions of human jobs. Optimization through progressive specialization will induce

unprecedented efficiency increases, forever changing nearly all professions and their constituent

tasks. The presence of only non-automatable professions and those created by AI will alter the

definition of desirable skillsets from mechanical and basic analysis to creative, managerial, and

complex intuition, consequently increasing the demand and desire for college education. To
 Dolan9

emerge successful from these altered workforce dynamics, current and future generations must

focus on developing critical thinking and emotional intuition by pursuing education and

dedicating effort toward personal growth. Adequately preparing for AI induced employment

variations will mitigate the difficulty of combating these alterations and ease the transition into a

machine-driven workforce.
 Dolan10

Bibliography

Adamson, Walter. Weblog post. FireBrandTalent, June 2017,

firebrandtalent.com/blog/2017/06/the-impact-of-ai-on-jobs-is-larger-than-you-think/.

Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

"ASIMO Demonstrates Advances in Robotics." The Auto Channel, 6 Apr. 2008,

www.theautochannel.com/news/2008/04/06/083466.html. Accessed 21 Nov. 2018.

"Automation Could Reshape Opportunities in the Job Market." USA Today, 29 June 2017,

www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/06/29/ai-stealing-human-jobs-isnt-problem-

is/412217001/. Accessed 23 Nov. 2018.

Bosker, Bianca. "SIRI RISING: The Inside Story Of Siri’s Origins — And Why She Could

Overshadow The iPhone." Huffington Post, 22 Jan. 2013,

www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/22/siri-do-engine-apple-iphone_n_2499165.html.

Accessed 21 Nov. 2018.

Bughin, Jacques. "Why AI isn't the death of jobs." MIT Sloan Management Review, 1 June 2018.

McKinsey, www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/why-ai-isnt-the-death-of-jobs.

Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

Chui, Michael, et al. "Four fundamentals of workplace automation." McKinsey Quarterly, Nov.

2015. McKinsey, www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-

insights/four-fundamentals-of-workplace-automation. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

Dastagir, Alia E. "Robots stealing human jobs isn't the problem. This is." USA Today, 29 June

2017. USA Today, www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/06/29/ai-stealing-human-jobs-

isnt-problem-is/412217001/. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

 Dolan11

"Deep Blue (Computer) vs Garry Kasparov." Chess Games,

www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1070874. Accessed 21 Nov. 2018.

Dormehl, Luke. "Today in Apple history: Siri debuts on iPhone 4s." Cult of Mac, 4 Oct. 2018,

www.cultofmac.com/447783/today-in-apple-history-siri-makes-its-public-debut-on-

iphone-4s/. Accessed 21 Nov. 2018.

Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osbourne. "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are

Jobs to Computerisation." Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment,

17 Sept. 2013, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-

employment.pdf. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

Harris, Karen, et al. Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality.

Bain, 7 Feb. 2018. Bain, www.bain.com/insights/labor-2030-the-collision-of-

demographics-automation-and-inequality/.

Hawksworth, John, et al. Will robots really steal our jobs? PWC, Feb. 2018. PWC,

www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/assets/international-impact-of-automation-feb-

2018.pdf.

---. What will be the net impact of AI and related technologies on jobs in China? PWC, Sept.

2018. PWC, www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/artificial-intelligence/impact-of-ai-on-jobs-in-

china.pdf. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

He, David, et al. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Financial Job Market. Boston

Consulting Group, Mar. 2018. BCG, image-src.bcg.com/Images/BCG-CDRF-The-

Impact-of-AI-on-the-Financial-Job-Market_Mar%202018_ENG_tcm58-187843.pdf.

Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

 Dolan12

He, David, and Vanessa Guo. "4 ways AI will impact the financial job market." World Economic

Forum, 14 Sept. 2018, www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/4-ways-ai-artificial-

intelligence-impact-financial-job-market/. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

Heckler, Mark A. "The importance of a college education." Chicago Tribune [Chicago], 11 Sept.

2018. Chicago Tribune, www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/opinion/ct-ptb-

heckler-guest-column-st-0912-story.html. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

"How will automation affect jobs, skills, and wages?" New World of Work, McKinsey Global

Institute, Mar. 2018, www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/how-will-

automation-affect-jobs-skills-and-wages. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

Huffington Post. 30 Dec. 2014, www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-cassidy/centaur-chess-shows-

power_b_6383606.html. Accessed 23 Nov. 2018.

"iRobot Introduces Roomba™ Intelligent FloorVac - The First Automatic Floor Cleaner In The

U.S." iRobot, 18 Sept. 2002, media.irobot.com/2002-09-18-iRobot-Introduces-Roomba-

Intelligent-FloorVac-The-First-Automatic-Floor-Cleaner-In-The-U-S. Accessed 21 Nov.

2018.

Lee, Mark. "11.1 TD-Gammon." Western Michigan University, 4 Jan. 2005,

cs.wmich.edu/~trenary/files/cs5300/RLBook/node108.html. Accessed 21 Nov. 2018.

Maggio, Edoaurdo. "Apple says that 500 million customers use Siri." Business Insider, 24 Jan.

2018, www.businessinsider.com/apple-says-siri-has-500-million-users-2018-1. Accessed

21 Nov. 2018.

Manyika, James, et al. Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills,

and wages. McKinsey Global Institute, Nov. 2017. McKinsey,

 Dolan13

www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-

future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

Manyika, James, and Kevin Sneader. AI, automation, and the future of work: Ten things to solve

for. McKinsey Global Institute, June 2018. McKinsey, www.mckinsey.com/featured-

insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-

jobs-skills-and-wages.

Markoff, John. "Google Cars Drive Themselves, in Traffic." New York Times, 9 Oct. 2010.

NYTimes, Google Cars Drive Themselves, in Traffic. Accessed 21 Nov. 2018.

Masayuki, Morikawa. "Artificial Intelligence and Employment." Rieti, 7 June 2016,

1.thttps://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/v01_0060.html?ref=rss. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

McClelland, Callum. "The Impact of Artificial Intelligence – Widespread Job Losses."

IoTForAll, 17 Aug. 2018, www.iotforall.com/impact-of-artificial-intelligence-job-losses/.

Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

Moon, Mariella. "Lyft puts 30 self-driving cars to work in Las Vegas." Engadget, 4 May 2018,

www.engadget.com/2018/05/04/lyft-30-self-driving-cars-las-vegas/. Accessed 22 Nov.

2018.

Nelson, Bryn. "Checkers Computer Becomes Invincible." NBC News, 19 July 2007,

www.nbcnews.com/id/19839044/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/checkers-

computer-becomes-invincible/#.W_XabbFKjIU. Accessed 21 Nov. 2018.

Perisic, Igor. "How artificial intelligence is shaking up the job market." World Economic Forum,

17 Sept. 2018, www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/artificial-intelligence-shaking-up-job-

market/. Accessed 22 Nov. 2018.

 Dolan14

Petropoulos, Georgios. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Employment. July 2018. Bruegel,

bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Impact-of-AI-Petroupoulos.pdf.

"Proportion of Jobs in China's Financial Sector that Will Not Be Replaced by AI." World

Economic Forum, 14 Sept. 2018, www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/4-ways-ai-

artificial-intelligence-impact-financial-job-market/. Accessed 23 Nov. 2018.

Rao, Anand, et al. "AI will impact employers before it impacts employment." PWC, 2018,

www.pwc.com/us/en/services/consulting/library/artificial-intelligence-

predictions/employer-impact.html. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

Salkever, Alex. "What if AI is coming for jobs faster than we thought?" World Economic Forum,

10 Sept. 2018, www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/what-if-ai-is-coming-for-jobs-faster-

than-we-thought. Accessed 22 Nov. 2018.

"Self-Driving." Lyft, www.lyft.com/self-driving-vehicles. Accessed 22 Nov. 2018.

"Self-Driving Ubers." Uber, www.uber.com/cities/pittsburgh/self-driving-ubers/. Accessed 22

Nov. 2018.

"Total Hours Worked in Europe and the United States, 2016 vs 2030 estimate." McKinsey, June

2018, www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/ai-automation-and-the-

future-of-work-ten-things-to-solve-for. Accessed 23 Nov. 2018.

Versace, Max. "If You're Worried About AI Taking Your Job, Consider This." Forbes, 26 Jan.

2018, www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2018/01/26/if-youre-worried-about-ai-

taking-your-job-consider-this/#2e325769768a. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

"Vorsprung durch tech drink! Carl the robot bartender serves customers at German bar." Daily

Mail, 27 July 2013, www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2379966/Carl-robot-bartender-

pours-drinks-customers-German-bar.html. Accessed 22 Nov. 2018.

 Dolan15

Wang, Brian. "BCG predicts 23% of finance jobs could be lost to AI by 2027." Next Big Future,

1 Apr. 2018, www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/04/bcg-predicts-23-of-finance-jobs-could-be-

lost-to-ai-by-2027.html. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

West, Darrel M. "Will robots and AI take your job? The economic and political consequences of

automation." TechTank, Brookings, 18 Apr. 2018,

www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2018/04/18/will-robots-and-ai-take-your-job-the-

economic-and-political-consequences-of-automation/. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.

Will Robots Take My Job. willrobotstakemyjob.com/. Accessed 20 Nov. 2018.