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expectation value of x
expectation value of y
background
assume bins independent Poisson RV
NN formulation of problem:
s: activation function (eg. logistic sigmoid)
single layer perceptron limited resolution
+hidden layer =>multilayer perceptron efficiency
many observables with little separation power each background
+>1hidden layers=>DeepNN more general parametrization:
structure
neighboring layers only->feed-forward network
BDT performance quantified by purity
DT:
define Impurity gain: 2p(1-p) Gini
physically motivated, all events retained priors depend on production cross sections classifier
but (-) sensitive to statistical fluctuation test statistic to classify
Covariance Exponential
Correlation
pseudorandom: randomness tests
(linear) Correlation coefficient
like true random, but reproducible and repeat after uniformity
period uncorrelated (at all levels)
test:
x,y independent => e.g independent equidistribution
Student t distribution: measure sampling from updown tests
measurement
Gaussian pairwise, triplewise correlation
! not other way around: e.g.
Central Limit Theorem application:
n independent continuous RV with and Breit-Wigner: energy loss of charged particle analytically not solvable
exceptions: => is Gaussian RV error propagation breaks down
malicious PD (mean not well-defined) many free parameters+unknown correlations
with and between
one dominant factor
Landau-distribution (energy loss of charged particle)
1 Uncertainties
because of long tail moments undefined
Breit-Wigner (Cauchy) distribution
simulation: num calc with solution related to PD enhanced: enclose f with g: with RV x according to
integration: (especially higher dimensions superior) can be generated
combining measurements
generate x
acceptance-rejection method: generate u from uniform
if => if u<f(x) accept
generate x in interval
generate f in interval
Error propagation if accept
RV function of with unknown PD holds if second derivative small
only know and error: 1.reject true Bayesian confidence intervals
=> determine E[y] and Var(y) 2.accept false "coverage" probability:
Neyman-Pearson lemma frequency of true value within confidence interval
Orthogonal transformation choosing critical region overcoverage not maximally powerful
transform to with diagonal highest power with t such: undercoverage serious flaw
always possible with linear transformation Frequentist
=> diagonalize normally test statistic t: lower dim->reduce data
construct test statistic: Neyman construction for
get from MC
but see MVA
9 Prediction
Linear test statistics , Fisher discriminant
intervals and limits
significance of signal
P(observe n or more events from background alone)
4 Statistical Tests
each bin Poisson
if analytic difficult: MC method methods for estimating MVB (minimum variance bound)
simulate experiments efficient RCF inequality:
compute ML estimates =minimum variance
use e.g. sampling variance for estimating
use RCF lower bound 6 Maximum Likelihood method terminology statistic: consistent: (minimum requirement)
if MC toilsome: graphical method
estimator
taylor logL
=> MSE (mean square error)
=> unbiased
N Gaussian RV: ML=chi^2 why?
combination of different experiments
if b=0 for all n
connection to chi2?
Least Squares method b=0 for