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journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/he

Sustainability of hydrogen supply chain. Part I:


Identification of critical criteria and causeeeffect
analysis for enhancing the sustainability using
DEMATEL

Jingzheng Ren, Alessandro Manzardo, Sara Toniolo, Antonio Scipioni*


CESQA (Quality and Environmental Research Centre), University of Padova, Department of Industrial Engineering,
Via Marzolo 9, 35131 Padova, Italy

article info abstract

Article history: The enhancement of sustainability of hydrogen supply chain is of vital importance for the
Received 19 June 2013 stakeholders/decision-makers to design a sustainable hydrogen supply chain. The objec-
Received in revised form tive of this paper is to develop a method for prioritizing the influential factors, identifying
23 August 2013 the key driving factors that influence the sustainability of hydrogen supply chain and
Accepted 28 August 2013 mapping the causeeeffect relationships to improve the sustainability of hydrogen supply
Available online 27 September 2013 chain. In this paper, thirty seven criteria in four aspects including economic, technological,
environmental and societal aspects are considered for enhancing the sustainability of
Keywords: hydrogen supply chain, and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory has been used
Sustainability to analyze the relationships among these criteria. The status of hydrogen supply chain in
Hydrogen supply chain China has been studied by the proposed method, and the results are consistent with the
Decision making trial and evalua- actual conditions. It could be concluded that the proposed method is feasible and could be
tion laboratory popularized to some other cases.
Copyright ª 2013, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights
reserved.

1. Introduction biomass et al. [5]. Different technologies for hydrogen pro-


duction will lead different impacts on economic, environ-
With the depletion of resource, the shortage of energy, and the mental and societal aspects that are the three main pillars of
degradation of environment, renewable and clean energy sustainability. Therefore, different hydrogen technologies for
ways such as biodiesel, hydrogen, hydropower and wind hydrogen production have different performances on
power, are attracted more and more attentions [1e4]. Among sustainability.
these energy scenarios, hydrogen is regarded as the most Nowadays with the requirement of sustainable develop-
promising energy carrier, because its oxidation does not emit ment, the sustainability of hydrogen technologies becomes
any greenhouse gases. However, hydrogen is not an energy more and more important. Musango and Brent [6] pointed out
source but rather an energy carrier, and it needs to be pro- that technology was always embedded in the sub-systems of
duced from other feedstock e.g. water, natural gas, coal and the economy, society, and the natural environment, as they

* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ39 3498275536; fax: þ39 498275785.


E-mail address: scipioni@unipd.it (A. Scipioni).

0360-3199/$ e see front matter Copyright ª 2013, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2013.08.126
14160 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 8 ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1 4 1 5 9 e1 4 1 7 1

relate to sustainability development. Although there are some technology aspect usually have significant on economic and
significant works about sustainability assessment of environmental performances. For instance, the improvement
hydrogen technologies [2,7e17], it lacks of a complete study of technology maturity can not only lower the cost, but also
on the sustainability of hydrogen technologies in ‘cradle to mitigate the emissions of harmful gases such as CO2 and NOx.
gate’ or ‘cradle to grave’ perspective (hydrogen supply chain). Based on the review of many published works [12e17,25e40],
In other words, all these studies only focus on a mere step 37 criteria in four aspects including economic, technological,
such as hydrogen production process and hydrogen storage environmental and societal aspects are considered for sus-
process in hydrogen supply chain. In order to understand the tainability assessment of hydrogen supply chain in this study,
sustainability of hydrogen supply chain comprehensively, it is as shown in Table 1. These criteria are specified as follows.
prerequisite to study the sustainability of hydrogen technol-
ogies in hydrogen supply chain perspective.
Hydrogen supply chain consists of hydrogen production
subsystem, hydrogen storage subsystem transportation sub- Table 1 e The criteria for sustainability assessment of
system, and hydrogen refueling station subsystem [18]. The hydrogen supply chain.
sustainability of hydrogen supply chain is very difficult due to Aspect Criteria References
the concerns of multiple influencing factors and multiple
Economic(A1) Facility capital cost (FCC) [13,26]
stages in the supply chain. It is difficult for the stakeholders to
Facility operation and [13,26]
make correct decisions directly on enhancing the sustain- maintenance costs (FOM)
ability of hydrogen supply, because all the factors that influ- Feedstock cost (FC) [13,26]
ence the sustainability are not independent but rather Transportation capital cost (TC) [26]
interacted and partly reduplicate in concept. Therefore, it is of Transportation operation and [26]
vital importance to develop a method that can assist decision- maintenance costs (TOM)
Primary energy source cost (EC) [26]
makers in designing sustainable hydrogen supply chains or
Storage operation cost (SC) [27]
enhancing the sustainability.
Net present value(NPV) [28]
The objective of this paper is to identify the core driving Internal rate of return(IRR) [28]
factors that influence the sustainability of hydrogen supply Market share (MS) [29]
chain, analyze the causeeeffect relationships among the Service life (SL) [14]
factors and provide useful guidelines for helping the stake- Technological(A2) Technological dependency (TD) [15]
holders make correct decision on enhancing the sustainability Reliability of technology (RT) [15]
Stability of supply (SS) [15]
of hydrogen supply chain.
Technological maturity (TM) [16]
In this paper, multiple aspects including economic, tech- Technology development [16]
nological, environmental and societal aspects are considered, potential (TDP)
and each aspect also consists of several criteria that influence Domestic technological ability [12]
the sustainability of hydrogen supply chain. Decision making (DTA)
trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATAL) method is used to Exergy efficiency (EE) [30]
Technological capability (TC) [31]
analyze the causeeeffect relationships among the factors that
Flexibility and responsiveness [31]
influence the sustainability of hydrogen supply. Subse-
(FR)
quently, the roadmap has been specified for enhancing the Deliver order reactiveness [32]
sustainability of hydrogen supply chain. (DOR)
This remainder of this study is organized as follows: Quality and education of [33]
Section 2 describes the criteria system for the sustainability staff (QES)
assessment of hydrogen supply chain. Section 3 presents the Environmental(A3) Energy utilization efficiency [12,16]
(EUE)
model of DEMATAL. In Section 4, the hydrogen supply chain in
Effect on the mitigation of [12,16]
China is studied by the proposed method. Finally, this study is
harmful gases (EMHG)
concluded and discussed in Section 5. Land use [25]
Fossil fuel consumption [12,16]
The availability of using [17]
2. Criteria for the design of sustainable renewable energy (AURE)
hydrogen supply chain Societal(A4) Inherent safety index (IS) [34e36]
Occupational index (OC) [34]
Social attractiveness (SA) [37]
The central concept of sustainability or sustainability devel- Human Health and safety of [38]
opment usually refers to achieve simultaneously economic employees (HHSE)
prosperity, environmental cleanness, and social re- Per capita GDP contribution (PC) [38]
sponsibility, namely the so-called “triple bottom line” [19,20]. Taxes contribution (TC) [38]
Hence, the criteria for sustainability assessment usually Cultural influence (CI) [38]
Political acceptability (PA) [39]
concerns three aspects including economic aspect, environ-
Security of primary energy [39]
mental performance and social issue. But with the review on
supply (SPS)
many published papers concerning sustainability assessment, Contribution for energy [40]
particular for energy systems, the technological aspect is also sufficiency (CS)
taken into consideration [12,21e25], because the criteria of
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 8 ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1 4 1 5 9 e1 4 1 7 1 14161

2.1. Economic aspect 2.1.10. Market share


The market share is a measure of the market penetration of
There are eleven criteria in economic aspect, namely facility hydrogen produced by some certain technology [29].
capital cost, facility operation and maintenance costs, feed-
stock cost, transportation capital cost, transportation opera- 2.1.11. Service life
tion and maintenance costs, primary energy source cost, The service life represents the number of years the power plants
storage cost, net present value, internal rate of return, market can be operated before the equipment needed to be replaced [14].
share and service life.

2.1.1. Facility capital cost 2.2. Technological aspect


The facility capital cost refers to the establishment of pro-
duction plants and storage facilities in hydrogen supply chain The technological aspect consists of eleven criteria including
[13,26]. technological dependency, reliability of technology, stability
of supply, technological maturity, technology development
2.1.2. Facility operation and maintenance costs potential, domestic technological ability, exergy efficiency,
The facility operation and maintenance costs are related to technological capability, flexibility and responsiveness,
the expenses of operation and maintenance of the unit [13,26]. deliver order reactiveness, and quality and education of staff.

2.1.3. Feedstock cost 2.2.1. Technological dependency


The feedstock cost consists of all the expenses of the primary The technological dependency denotes the risk due to de-
materials used in the hydrogen production process [13,26]. pendency on foreign technologies [15].

2.1.4. Transportation capital cost 2.2.2. Reliability of technology


The transportation capital cost refers to the costs of pur- The reliability of technology represents the resistance and
chasing for different transportation modes such as trucks or robustness to the failure of the energy system or device [15].
railcars [26].
2.2.3. Stability of supply
2.1.5. Transportation operation and maintenance costs The stability of supply represents the stability status of
The transportation operation and maintenance costs consist hydrogen supply chain [15], because hydrogen supply chain
of all the expenses for the transportation of hydrogen, i.e. fuel, are relatively new, and there are abundant room to be
labor, maintenance and general costs [26]. improved for the stability of hydrogen supply chain.

2.1.6. Primary energy source cost 2.2.4. Technological maturity


The primary energy source cost refers to the cost of primary The technological maturity is a criterion which represents
energy sources for hydrogen production in the hydrogen plant mature level of each piece of hydrogen production technology
[26]. [16].

2.1.7. Storage operation cost 2.2.5. Technology development potential


The storage operation cost refers to the expense on the The concept of technology development potential is defined
operation of hydrogen storage [27]. as the evaluation of each technology with regards to its po-
tential for future development and measured by its relative
2.1.8. Net present value status or progress [16].
Net present value refers to the sum of all cash flows from the
beginning of the project to its end as shown in Eq. (1), to some 2.2.6. Domestic technological ability
extent, it denotes the absolute profitability of the project [28]. The domestic technological ability refers to the relative level
of the domestic technologies in hydrogen supply chain [12].
X
n
 
NPV ¼ CIj  COj ð1 þ rÞi (1)
j¼0 2.2.7. Exergy efficiency
The exergy efficiency is defined as the ratio of the output exergy
where CIj is the total annual income cash flow in the j-th year,
(hydrogen product) to the input exergy (feedstock), and exergy is
COj is the total annual outcome cash flow in the j-th year, r is
a measure of the usefulness or value or quality of energy form
the interest rate (%), n is the lifetime of a project.
[30].

2.1.9. Internal rate of return


2.2.8. Technological capability
Internal rate of return represents the discount rate to make
The technological capability represents the production capa-
the net present value equal zero, it reflects the expected rate of
bility and transportation capability [31].
return when the project undertaken the highest capital cost
[28]. It can be obtained from Eq. (2).
2.2.9. Flexibility and responsiveness
Xn
 
CIj  COj ð1 þ rÞi ¼ 0 (2) The flexibility and responsiveness represents the flexibility
i¼0 and the responsiveness of hydrogen supply chain [31].
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2.2.10. Deliver order reactiveness 2.4.3. Social attractiveness


The deliver order reactiveness represents the reactiveness of Social attractiveness represents the acceptability and attrac-
the staffs who work in hydrogen supply chain to the deliver tiveness of the society to the performance of hydrogen supply
order [32]. chain [37].

2.2.11. Quality and education of staff 2.4.4. Human health and safety of employees
The quality and education of staff represents the level of the Human health and safety of employees is a measure of the ef-
professional skills of the staffs working in the whole supply fects of all the processes in the hydrogen supply chain on the
chain [33]. health and safety of the employees, because it was reported that
human health decrease in employment of energy systems [38].
2.3. Environmental aspect
2.4.5. Per capita GDP contribution
There are five criteria in environmental aspect, namely energy Per capita GDP contribution represents the increased GDP
utilization efficiency, effect on the mitigation of harmful contributed by the establishment of hydrogen supply chain
gases, land use, fossil fuel consumption, and the availability of divided by the total number of the local residents [38].
using renewable energy.
2.4.6. Taxes contribution
2.3.1. Energy utilization efficiency Taxes contribution represents the taxes contributed by the
The energy utilization efficiency is often described by establishment of hydrogen supply chain [38].
comparing the system output with energy consumption. It is
the ratio of the energy of the product to the total energy 2.4.7. Cultural influence
required for producing the product [12,16]. Cultural influence represents the positive influences of
hydrogen supply chain on the culture of the local regions [38].
2.3.2. Effect on the mitigation of harmful gases
It is am measure of the effect of the hydrogen technologies on 2.4.8. Political acceptability
waste gases mitigation such as CO2 and NOx [12,16]. Political acceptability represents the acceptability of hydrogen
supply chain from the political perspective, and it is a measure
2.3.3. Land use of the support and satisfaction to hydrogen supply chain from
Land use represents the total used land [25]. In this study, it the government [39].
represents the ecological footprint of the hydrogen supply
chain consisting of various lands, i.e. the used land for the 2.4.9. Security of primary energy supply
establishment of hydrogen production factory and the land Security of primary energy supply is a measure of the contri-
for absorbing the waste gases. bution of hydrogen supply for the security of primary energy
supply of a region [39].
2.3.4. Fossil fuel consumption
Fossil fuel consumption represents the total amount of fossil 2.4.10. Contribution for energy sufficiency
fuel consumption in the whole hydrogen supply chain, i.e. the Contribution for energy sufficiency is a criterion which depicts
fossil fuel for hydrogen production and transportation [12,16]. hydrogen supply chain contributes to the region’s energy in-
dependence, by substituting certain amounts of the energy
2.3.5. The availability of using renewable energy imports [40].
The availability of using renewable energy is a measure of the There are a lot of reduplications, interactions and in-
ratio of renewable energy used for hydrogen production [17]. dependences among these criteria, but there is not a criterion
which can substitute any other criteria. Hence, all the criteria
2.4. Societal aspect are needed to be considered though it is difficult for the
stakeholders to analyze the relationships among these factors
There are ten criteria in societal aspect, namely inherent safety directly. In order to solve this problem, an analysis tool, namely
index, occupational index, social attractiveness, human health so-called ‘decision making trial and evaluation laboratory’, is
and safety of employees, per capita GDP contribution, taxes used in this study. And this method is specified in Section 3.
contribution, cultural influence, political acceptability, security
of primary supply and contribution for energy sufficiency.

2.4.1. Inherent safety index 3. DEMATEL


The inherent safety index is measured in the inherent hazard
in the whole hydrogen supply chain including production Decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATAL)
process, transportation process and storage process [34e36]. method developed by the Science and Human Affairs Program of
the Battelle Memorial Institute of Geneva between 1972 and 1976
2.4.2. Occupational index is usually used to study and resolve the complicated and inter-
Occupational index represents the total number of fulltime twined problem group [41]. It is a method based on graph theory
employees contributed by the whole hydrogen supply chain which has the ability to divide multiple criteria into a cause-and-
[34]. effect group, and the causal relationships in a network
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 8 ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1 4 1 5 9 e1 4 1 7 1 14163

relationship map could also be obtained to help the Step 3: Normalize the initial direct-relation matrix. The
stakeholders/decision-makers to have a better understanding of normalized initial direct-relation matrix D could be obtained
the intertwined problems [42]. DEMATEL has been widely used by Eq. (5) and Eq. (6).
to analyze the causal relationships and interaction influences, 0 1
identify the core driving factors and help the stakeholders to X
n X
n
s ¼ max@ max aij ; max aij A (5)
make correct decision on the complicated problems, i.e. 1in
j¼1
1jn
i¼1
network communication equipment manufacturing industry
[43], portfolio selection [44], organic light emitting diode tech-   A
nology selection [5], human resources for science and technol- D ¼ dij nn ¼ (6)
s
ogy [45], blog design [46], and emergency management [47] et al.
where D is the normalized initial direct-relation matrix, and s
The DEMATEL consists of five main steps:
represents the biggest value among the sums of each row and
each column.
(1) Invite experts to determine the direct-influenced matrices.
The sum of each row j of matrix D represents the direct
(2) Calculate the average matrix. P
(3) Normalize the initial direct-influenced matrix. effects of the j-th factor on the other factors, and max ni¼1 aji
1jn
(4) Calculate the total relation matrix. represents the factor has the highest influence on other fac-
(5) Set the threshold value and obtain the network relation- tors. On the other hand, the sum of each column i represent
ship map. the direct influences on the i-th factor affected by the other
P
factors, and max nj¼1 aji represents the factor which is the
1in
These five steps are specified as follows [48e50],
most influenced by the other factors.
Step 1: Invite experts to determine the direct-influenced
matrices. The purpose of this step is to obtain the influence Step 4: Calculate the total relation matrix. The powers of D
of each factor on other factors. The experts concerning the represent the indirect effects between any factors. A continuous
corresponding filed are invited to participate in the decision- decrease of the indirect effects of factors along the powers of
making on the direct-influenced matrices. matrix D, such as D2, D3,., DN, similar to Markov chain matrix,
guarantees convergent solutions to the matrix inversion. Then,
The corresponding experts are usually invited to attend a the total relation matrix T could be calculated by Eq. (7).
colloquium, and the organizer will introduce the purpose of   X
N
T ¼ tij nn ¼ Di ¼ DðI  DÞ1 (7)
this colloquium, the influenced factors and the methods to
i¼1
determine the direct influence between any two factors by
slides or some other ways. where T represents the total relation matrix and I is the
The experts are asked to evaluate the degrees which rep- identity matrix.
resents they believe a criterion affects another criterion. The total effect that directly and indirectly exerted by the i-
Assuming there are H experts and n factors to be considered. th factor, is denoted by ri, could be calculated by Eq. (8).
The influence of factor i on factor j denotes by xij, and is given an X
n

integer score of 0e4, representing “No influence (0)”, “Low in- ri ¼ tij (8)
j¼1
fluence (1)”, “Medium influence (2)”, “High influence (3)”, and
“Very high influence (4)”, respectively. The scores provided by The total effect including direct and indirect effects received
each expert can form a n  n matrix, as shown in Eq. (3) by the j-th factor, id denoted by cj could be calculated by Eq. (9).
2 3
0 xk12 / xk1n
6 xk X
/ xk2n 7
n
0
Xk ¼ 6
4 «
21 7; k ¼ 1; 2; /; H (3) cj ¼ tij (9)
« 1 « 5 i¼1
k
xn1 xkn2 0
Therefore, when i ¼ j, the sum (ri þ ci) represents the total
where Xk represents the direct-influenced matrix determined effects given and received by the i-th factor. In other words,
by the k-th expert. (ri þ ci) is a measure of the degree of the importance of the i-th
factor in the system. And the difference (ri  ci) called “rela-
Step 2: Calculate the average matrix. The average matrix tion” shown the net effect that contributed by the i-th factor to
which is also called initial direct-relation direct could be the system. When (ri  ci)>0, the i-the factor is a net cause, it
calculated by Eq. (4) belongs to the ‘cause group’, and when (ri  ci)<0, the i-the
2 3
PH PH factor is a net receiver or result, it belongs to the ‘effect group’.
6 0 1
H
x k
12 / H
1
x k
1n 7
6 k¼1 k¼1 7
6 7
6 P P 7 Step 5: Set the threshold value and obtain the network rela-
61 H k H 7
  6H x21 0 / H1 xk2n 7 tionship map.
6
A ¼ aij nn ¼ 6 k¼1 7 (4)
k¼1 7
6 7
6 « « 1 « 7
6 7 After the calculation of the coordinate values (ri þ ci, ri  ci) of
6 H 7
41 P k 1 P H 5
H
xn1 H
xk
n2 / 0 all the factors, they could be drawn out in the causeeeffect di-
k¼1 k¼1
agram. Before drawing the causeeeffect diagram, the threshold
where A is the average matrix. value is allowed to be set, if the sum (ri þ ci) with respect to the i-
14164 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 8 ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1 4 1 5 9 e1 4 1 7 1

th criterion is smaller the threshold value, it means that the to discuss the direct-influenced matrix, and the direct-
influence of the i-th criterion is relatively small, then the i-th influence matrix until the consistency among all the experts
criterion could be deleted in the causeeeffect diagram. of the group is reached. It is notable to point that some pub-
If the factor i is an effect, and the value of ri þ ci is very lished papers, technical reports, and policies concerning
small, it means that the factor is more independent, and there hydrogen supply chain, have been provided to the experts for
are less other factors will influence factor i, on the contrary, if them assess the influence between two criteria accurately.
the value of ri þ ci is very big, it means that it is the core factor
required to be solved, however, it is not the origin of the For the economic aspect, the calculation is based on the
problem. If the factor i is a cause, and the value of ri þ ci is very three groups of experts’ options. There are three 11  11
small, it means that this factor only can affect few other fac- matrices determined by the three groups of experts are pre-
tors, on the contrary, if the value of ri þ ci is very big, it means sented in Eq. (10), Eq. (11) and Eq. (12), respectively.
that is the core driving factor of solving the key problem and
2 3
should be given priority for improving the whole system [51]. 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 4 4 3 2
60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 377
60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 077
60
6 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 2 0 177
4. Application on enhancing sustainable 60
6 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 077
hydrogen supply chain X1 ¼ 6 07 (10)
60 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 7
60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 077
The proposed method was used to analyze the hydrogen 60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 077
supply chain of China, the purpose of this study is to analyze
60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 077
the causeeeffect relationships among the influencing factors
40 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 05
2 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 0 0 0
that influence the sustainability of hydrogen supply chain,
identify the core driving factors that are needed to be
2 3
improved for enhancing the sustainability, and specify the 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 3 3 3 2
guidelines for helping the stakeholders to maker correct de- 60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 477
cision on taking effective actions to enhance the sustainability
60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 077
60
6 0 0 0 4 0 0 3 2 0 177
of hydrogen supply chain. The framework of using DEMATEL 60
6 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 077
for sustainability analysis of hydrogen supply chain is shown X ¼6
2
60 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 077 (11)
in Fig. 1. It consists of four main steps: 60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 077
60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 077
Step 1: Determine the criteria that influence the sustainability
60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 077
40 1 0 0 1 0 0 4 4 0 05
of hydrogen supply chain.
3 1 1 3 1 2 2 4 0 0 0
Step 2: Invite the experts who can give appropriate assess-
ment on the direct influence between any two criteria to
2 3
participate in the colloquium. The purpose of this step is data 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 3 3 2 2
collection, namely to determine the average matrices that 60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 377
60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 077
mentioned in DEMATEL method. 60
6 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 2 0 177
Step 3: Use DEMATEL method to analyze the collected data. It 60 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 0 07
6 7
is notable that these fives steps in DEMATAL described in X ¼6
3
60 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 077 (12)
Section 3 are incorporated in Step 3 of the framework. 60
6 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 077
Step 4: Draft the guidelines for enhancing the sustainability of
60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 077
60
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 077
hydrogen supply chain. 41 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 0 05
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 0 0 0
Then, the four steps have been specified as follows by
analyze the hydrogen supply chain in China: Then, the average matrix could be determined by Eq. (4), as
shown in Eq. (13)
Step 1 in the framework was discussed in section 2, and 37
2 3
criteria in four aspects are considered herein. 0 1 1 0:67 0:67 1 0 3:33 3:33 2:33 2
Step 2 in the framework refers data collection which is pre-
6 0
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 2:33 2:33 2 3 7 7
6 0
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 2:67 2:67 1 0 7 7
requisite for DEMATEL analysis, and the Delphi [52] is used to 6 0
6 0 0 0 2:33 0 0 2:67 2 0 17 7
collect the needed data. Three groups of experts are invited to 6 0
6 0 0 0 0 1:67 1:33 1:67 1:67 0 0 7 7
participate to determine the direct influence between any two A1 ¼ 6
6 0 0 1:33 0 0 0 0 2 1:33 0 0 7 7
factors (direct-influence matrices). One consists of several 6 0
6 0 0 0 0 0:67 0 1:67 1 0 07 7
engineers from hydrogen production plants and fuel cell
6 0
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 07 7
6 0
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 7
vehicle companies, another consists of multiple administra- 4 0:67 0:67 0:67 0:67 0:67 0:67 0:67 4 4 0 05
tive executors and managers concerning the planning and 1:33 1 1 1:33 1 1:33 1:33 3 0 0 0
development of hydrogen energy, and the other consists of (13)
plenty professors and PHD students whose research filed
concerning hydrogen technologies. A director in each group Eq. (5) and Eq. (6) is to calculate normalized initial direct-
will be nominated, and the director will organize a colloquium relation matrix D
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 8 ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1 4 1 5 9 e1 4 1 7 1 14165

2 3
0 0:043 0:043 0:029 0:029 0:043 0 0:143 0:143 0:1 0:086
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:1 0:1 0:086 0:129 7
6 7
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:114 0:114 0:043 0 7
6 7
6 0 0 0 0 0:1 0 0 0:114 0:086 0 0:043 7
6 7
6 0 0 0 0 0 0:071 0:057 0:071 0:071 0 0 7
A 6 7
D¼ !¼6
6 0 0 0:057 0 0 0 0 0:086 0:057 0 0 7 7 (14)
P P 6 0 0 0 0 0 0:029 0 0:071 0:043 0 0 7
max max nj¼1 aij ; max ni¼1 aij 6 7
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:1714 0 0 7
1in 1jn
6 7
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
6 7
4 0:029 0:029 0:029 0:029 0:029 0:029 0:029 0:171 0:171 0 0 5
0:057 0:043 0:043 0:057 0:043 0:057 0:057 0:129 0 0 0

Then, Step 3 in the framework could be carried out, and the and been improved, because they are the origins of the prob-
total relation matrix is calculated by Eq. (7), as shown in lems and have significant effect on NPV and IRR. Moreover,
Eq. (15). facility capital cost (FCC) is also the most influential criterion
and should be given priority to be improved, follows by FOM,

2 3
0:0085 0:0503 0:0535 0:0373 0:0397 0:0548 0:0107 0:1983 0:2173 0:1075 0:0945
6 0:0100 0:0086 0:0092 0:0103 0:0094 0:0114 0:0105 0:1388 0:1448 0:0878 0:1310 7
6 7
6 0:0013 0:0013 0:0014 0:0013 0:0014 0:0014 0:0013 0:1227 0:1435 0:0432 0:0003 7
6 7
6 0:0025 0:0020 0:0026 0:0026 0:1022 0:0101 0:0083 0:1299 0:1174 0:0005 0:0434 7
6 7
6 0:0000 0:0000 0:0042 0:0000 0:0000 0:0731 0:0571 0:0823 0:0927 0:0002 0:0000 7
6 7
T¼6
6 0:0001 0:0001 0:0572 0:0001 0:0001 0:0001 0:0001 0:0927 0:0800 0:0025 0:0000 7
7 (15)
6 0:0000 0:0000 0:0016 0:0000 0:0000 0:0286 0:0000 0:0741 0:0574 0:0001 0:0000 7
6 7
6 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 7
6 7
6 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 0:0000 7
6 7
4 0:0292 0:0304 0:0323 0:0300 0:0329 0:0337 0:0311 0:1954 0:2252 0:0069 0:0077 5
0:0583 0:0463 0:0501 0:0599 0:0514 0:0662 0:0612 0:1716 0:0653 0:0119 0:0135

Subsequently, the direct and indirect effects could also be MS, SL, TC, FC, TOM. Therefore, all the net causes need to be
calculated by Eq (8) and Eq. (9), as depicted in Table 2. And the improved to enhance the economic performances of
causeeeffect relationship diagram in economic aspect is hydrogen supply chain, and FCC should be given priority to be
shown in Fig. 2. improved.
Finally, Step 4 in the framework could be done. According By the same way, the average matrix of the criteria in
to the suggestions of the experts’, the threshold value is set as technological aspect, environmental aspect and societal
0.52, and it is notable that the threshold is not mandatory. It aspect could also be determined, as shown in Eq. (16), Eq. (17)
can be deduced that the importance of the eleven criteria can and Eq. (18), respectively. And the corresponding direct and
be prioritized as NPV > IRR > FCC > SL > MS > FOM > TC > indirect effects of the criteria in these three aspects are shown
TOM > FC > EC > SC based on (r þ c) values, and the net present in Table 3, Table 4 and Table 5, respectively. Then, the cau-
value is the most important criterion with the value of 1.3772, seeeffect relationship diagrams could also be determined, as
while storage cost is the least important criterion with the shown in Fig. 3, Fig. 4 and Fig. 5, respectively.
value of 0.3422. In addition, the classifications of the criteria In the technological aspect, the criteria form the most
could be determined based on the values of (r  c). Facility important to the least is TM > DTA > FR > TC > SS > TD > DOR >
capital cost (FCC), service life (SL), market Share (MS), facility TDP > RT > QES > EE, and technological maturity (TM), do-
operation and maintenance costs (FOM), transportation cap- mestic technological ability (DTA), technological capability
ital cost (TC), transportation operation and maintenance costs (TC), technological dependency (TD), technology development
(TOM), and feedstock cost (FC) are recognized as net causes, potential (TDP) and quality and education of staff (QES) are
whereas net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return regarded as net causes, whereas flexibility and responsiveness
(IRR) are net receivers. Though some causes such as trans- (FR), stability of supply (SS), deliver order reactiveness (DOR),
portation capital cost (TC), transportation operation and reliability of technology (RT) and exergy efficiency (EE) are
maintenance costs (TOM) and feedstock cost (FC) are less regarded as net receivers (effect). In addition, flexibility and
important than the net receivers including net present value responsiveness is the most important issue to be solved, and
(NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) that are core problems follows by stability of supply, deliver order reactiveness, reli-
to be solved, they are also needed to be paid more attentions ability of technology and exergy efficiency. And the
14166 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 8 ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1 4 1 5 9 e1 4 1 7 1

Indentify the core factors for the sustainability of hydrogen


supply chain and obtain the cause-effect relationships

Economic Technological Environment Criteria


aspect Societal aspect
aspect -al aspect

Inviting the experts to determine the direct-influenced matrices

FCC TD EUE IS
FOM RT OC
SL QES SPS

FC SS DO AURE SA
MS EMHG
R
PA
HHS
TC IRR TM FR
E
LU FFC
CS
TO NPV TC
TDP PC
M CI
SC EE
EC DTA Determine direct influence TC
matrices using 0-4 scales

Using decision making trial and evaluation laboratory to


analyze the collected data

Draft the guidelines for enhancing the sustainability of


hydrogen supply chain

Fig. 1 e The framework of using DEMATEL for sustainability analysis of hydrogen supply chain.

technological maturity is the most important driving factor for


improving the technological performances, follows by do-
mestic technological ability, technological capability, techno-
logical dependency, technology development potential and
Table 2 e The direct and indirect effects of the criteria in quality and education of staff.
economic aspect.
Factor rþc rc

Facility capital cost (FCC) 0.9821 0.7626


Facility operation and 0.7107 0.4330
maintenance costs (FOM)
Feedstock cost (FC) 0.5311 0.1071
Transportation capital cost (TC) 0.5630 0.2800
Transportation operation and 0.5467 0.0724
maintenance costs (TOM)
Primary energy source cost (EC) 0.5123 0.0465
Storage cost (SC) 0.3422 0.0187
Net present value(NPV) 1.3772 1.0343
Internal rate of return(IRR) 1.3151 1.3151
Market Share (MS) 0.9153 0.3943
Fig. 2 e The causeeeffect relationship diagram in economic
Service life (SL) 0.9462 0.3652
aspect.
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 8 ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1 4 1 5 9 e1 4 1 7 1 14167

Table 3 e The direct and indirect effects of the criteria in Table 5 e The direct and indirect effects of the criteria in
technological aspect. social aspect.
Factor rþc rc Factor rþc rc

Technological dependency (TD) 1.0206 1.0206 Inherent safety index (IS) 0.5348 0.5348
Reliability of technology (RT) 0.6944 0.2147 Occupational index (OC) 0.6461 0.2893
Stability of supply (SS) 1.0487 0.6534 Social attractiveness (SA) 1.1661 0.6756
Technological maturity (TM) 2.1113 0.8174 Human Health and safety of 0.7119 0.3786
Technology development potential (TDP) 0.7689 0.3244 employees (HHSE)
Domestic technological ability (DTA) 1.4734 0.4834 Per capita GDP contribution (PC) 0.3272 0.1840
Exergy efficiency (EE) 0.5280 0.5280 Taxes contribution (TC) 0.4018 0.2113
Technological capability (TC) 1.0738 0.0472 Cultural influence (CI) 0.5643 0.3705
Flexibility and responsiveness (FR) 1.2612 1.0004 Contribution for energy sufficiency (CS) 0.6178 0.6178
Deliver order reactiveness (DOR) 0.9797 0.9797 Political acceptability (PA) 1.2146 1.2146
Quality and education of staff (QES) 0.6832 0.6832 Security of primary supply (SPS) 0.3783 0.0450

inherent safety index are regarded as net causes, whereas


2 3 political acceptability, social attractiveness and cultural in-
0 3:67 4:00 2:67 0 4:00 2:00 1:33 3:00 0 0
60 0 3:00 0 0 0 0 0 3:33 0 07 fluence are regarded as net receivers. In addition, political
6 7
60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3:00 2:67 07
6 7 acceptability and social attractiveness are the most influential
60 4:00 4:00 4:00 0 4:00 4:00 4:00 3:67 3:00 07
6 7 factor, and human health and safety of employees is the most
60 0 1:33 1:00 0 2:67 1:33 2:33 1:00 1:33 07
6 7 important driving factor for enhancing the performances in
A2 ¼ 6
60 0 2:33 2:67 3:67 0 4:00 3:33 3:33 2:00 077
60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 societal aspect.
6 7
60 1:33 2:67 2:67 0 0 0 0 3:33 2:00 07 2 3
6 7
60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4:00 07 0 0 2:67 4:00 0 0 0 0 3:33 0
6 7
40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 60
6 0 3:67 0 0:33 1:33 1:67 0 2:67 0 7 7
0 1:67 2:00 1:33 1:33 1:33 0 0 4:00 4:00 0 60
6 0 0 0 0 0 2:33 0 3:33 0 7 7
6 0 3:67 3:67
6 0 0 0 1:33 0 1:67 0 7 7
(16) 60 0 0 0 0 0:67 2:67 0 2:33 0 7 7
A4 ¼ 6
In the environmental, the criteria from the most important
60
6 0 2:67 0 0 0 0:33 0 3:67 0 7 7
60
6 0 1:33 0 0 0 0 0 0:67 0 7 7
to the least is EMHG > AURE > FFC > LU > EUE, and the 60
6 0 4:00 0 1:33 0 0 0 3:33 4:00 7
7
availability of using renewable energy and energy utilization 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
efficiency are regarded as net causes, whereas effect on the 0 0 1:67 0 0 0 0 0 3:00 0
mitigation of harmful gases, fossil fuel consumption and land (18)
use are regarded as net receivers. In addition, the effect on the
In order to investigate the causeeeffect relationships
mitigation of harmful gases is the most important core issue,
among these four aspects, the average matrix of the four as-
follows by fossil fuel consumption and land use. And the
pects is obtained, as shown in Eq. (19). Then, the direct and
availability of using renewable energy is the most important
indirect effects of the four aspects and the causeeeffect rela-
issue which should be given priority for enhancing the per-
tionship diagram of the four aspects could also be obtained, as
formances in environmental aspect.
shown in Table 6 and Fig. 6, respectively. It is apparent that
2 3
0 3:67 0 4:00 0 economic aspect and technological aspect are regarded as net
6 0 0 3 0 07
6 7 causers, whereas societal aspect and environmental aspect
A3 ¼ 6
6 0 1:67 0 1:33 077 (17) are recognized as net receivers. It could be concluded that the
4 0 4:00 3 0 05
development of hydrogen economy and hydrogen technolo-
3:33 4:00 3:67 3:67 0
gies is beneficial for improving the performances of environ-
In societal aspect, the criteria in this aspect form the most mental and societal aspects.
important to the least important is PA > SA > HHSE > OC >
CS > CI > IS, and human health and safety of employees,
occupational index, contribution for energy sufficiency and r-c
1.5
TD Cause
1 TM
QES DTA
0.5 TDP
Table 4 e The direct and indirect effects of the criteria in TC Cause r+c
0
environmental aspect.
0 0.5 RT 1 SS 1.5 2 2.5
Factor rþc rc -0.5
EE FR
DOR Effect
-1
Energy utilization efficiency (EUE) 0.9817 0.5227
Effect on the mitigation of harmful gases (EMHG) 1.5641 1.0366 -1.5
Land use (LU) 1.3730 0.7936 Threshold value=0.52
Fossil fuel consumption (FFC) 1.3819 0.1653
The availability of using renewable energy (AURE) 1.4679 1.4679
Fig. 3 e The causeeeffect relationship diagram in
technological aspect.
14168 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 8 ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1 4 1 5 9 e1 4 1 7 1

r-c
2 Table 6 e The direct and indirect effects of the four
1.5 Cause aspects.
AURE
1 Aspect rþc rc
EUE
0.5
r+c Economic (A1) 4.8688 1.2318
0 Technological (A2) 4.6908 1.0008
-0.5 0 0.5 1 FFC 1.5 2 Environmental (A3) 3.5433 1.2704
-1
LU EMHG Effect Societal (A4) 4.5361 0.9622
Threshold value=0.52
-1.5

Fig. 4 e The causeeeffect relationship diagram in  The qualitative factors that affect the sustainability of
environmental aspect. hydrogen supply chain could be incorporated. Moreover, the
effects of these factors could also be quantified.
 The specified implementations could be obtained according
2 3 to the causeeeffect relationships among these factors.
A1 A2 A3 A4
6 A1 0 3:67 2:33 3:00 7  It is an object-oriented method, the proposed method is able
6 7
A¼6
6 A2 4:00 0 2:67 1:33 7
7 (19) to identify the core problems needed to be solved and the
4 A3 0 0 0 3:67 5 key factors that should be improved for enhancing the
A4 1:33 1:67 2:00 0 sustainability of the studied hydrogen supply chain.
 It is an artificial intelligent method which could share the
collective wisdom. The views of stakeholders/decision-
makers concerning the sustainability of the hydrogen sup-
5. Discussion and conclusion ply chain could be aggregated by data fusion.

The sustainability of hydrogen supply chain is meaningful for The hydrogen supply chain in China is analyzed by the
sustainable development of hydrogen industry. The objective proposed method, and the objective is to use the proposed
of this paper is to present a method to identify the key factors method to obtain the useful ways for enhancing the sustain-
influencing the sustainability of hydrogen supply chain, ability of the hydrogen supply chains in China. The results are
obtain the causeeeffect relationships in the supply chain and obtained, and the specified actions for enhancing the perfor-
propose the appropriate actions to enhance the sustainability mances of each aspect are proposed.
of hydrogen supply chain. In economic aspect, the net present value and internal rate
A complete criteria system which consists of economic of return are not only the important factors, but also the core
aspect, technological aspect, environmental aspect and soci- problems that are needed to be improved for enhancing the
etal aspect including 37 criteria have been developed, and the sustainability of hydrogen supply chain, but they are not the
decision making trial and evaluation laboratory is used to origins of problems, on the contrary, the factors of the ‘cause
analyze the causeeeffect relationships among the criteria in group’ are prerequisite to be improved for a better sustain-
each aspect, and the importance of the criteria can be priori- ability. Among them, the facility capital cost is the most
tized, in addition, the core factors needed to be solved and the important, follows by service life, market share, facility
most important driving factors for enhancing the perfor- operation and maintenance costs, transportation capital cost,
mances of each aspect can also be identified. Comparing to transportation operation and maintenance costs, and feed-
the previous methodologies for optimizing or designing of stock cost. It could be concluded that lowering the facility
hydrogen supply chain, the proposed method has the capital cost is the most urgent problem that is needed to be
following advantages: solved in the hydrogen supply chain of China, and this result
is consistent with that studied by Feng et al. [53], capital cost
 It considers not only the economic performances, but also also occupies a very high ratio in the total cost of per kilogram
other three pillars, namely technological aspects, environ- hydrogen. It is apparent that it is difficult for the local
mental issues and societal concerns. The sustainability of
the hydrogen supply chain is studied completely.

1. 5 r-c Cause
1 r-c Economic
IS CR 1 Technological
0.5
HHSE Cause 0. 5
OC r+c
0
0 r+c
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-0.5 CI -0. 5
SA
-1 -1 Societal
Effect
PA -1 . 5 Environmental
-1.5 Threshold value=0.52 Effect

Fig. 5 e The causeeeffect relationship diagram in societal Fig. 6 e The causeeeffect relationship diagram of the four
aspect. aspects.
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 8 ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1 4 1 5 9 e1 4 1 7 1 14169

governments in China to invest huge capital in a hydrogen chain is usually governed by the energy sector of the local
production plant for the development of hydrogen supply, government. Similarly, social attractiveness reflecting the
subsequently, the hydrogen supply chain in those local re- acceptability of the local residents is also an important prob-
gions are influenced. In addition, some other actions should lem to be solved, because they can dominate the success of
be carried out to assist in enhancing the sustainability of building a hydrogen project near their hometown. Comparing
hydrogen supply chain, for instance extending the service life to political acceptability and social attractiveness, cultural
and the market, and lowering the facility operation and influence is a low influential factor in ‘effect group’. Among
maintenance costs, transportation capital cost and feedstock the factors in the ‘cause group’, human health and safety of
cost et al. The fulfillments of these actions such as lowering employees is the most important driving factor for enhancing
the facility operation and maintenance costs and feedstock the social performance, and occupational index and contri-
cost depend on the improvement of the technologies in bution for energy sufficiency are ranked as the second-tier
hydrogen supply chain. most important driving factors, follows by inherent safety
In the technological aspect, technological maturity is the index, all these driving factors aim improving the political
most important criterion, and it is also the most influential acceptability and social attractiveness.
driving factor that affects the corn problems in technological Among the four aspects, economic aspect is the most
aspect, follows by domestic technological ability, technolog- important driving factor, follows by technological aspect, and
ical capability, technological dependency, technology devel- societal performance is the most important core problems
opment potential and quality and education of staff that all needed to be solved, follows by environmental performance.
belong to ‘cause group’. And, the improvements of these fac- In other words, the improvement of economic and techno-
tors of ‘cause group’ aim at enhancing the performance of the logical performances is the essential prerequisite for
factors of ‘effect group’ including flexibility and responsive- enhancing the sustainability of hydrogen supply chain in
ness, stability of supply, deliver order reactiveness, reliability China nowadays. This conclusion is consistent with the actual
of technology and exergy efficiency. Among these factors in condition of China, because the economic and technological
‘effect group’, flexibility and responsiveness is the most performances have tremendous potential to be improved.
important core factor that is urgent to be improved, hence, Levin and Chahine [54] pointed out that hydrogen is produced,
taking some effective actions in the whole process of almost exclusively, by steam reformation of methane or by
hydrogen supply chain to improve the flexibility and respon- water electrolysis currently. And steam reformation of
siveness is prerequisite. Moreover, The enhancements of methane, and water electrolysis are also the most two popular
these net causes such as technological maturity and domestic pathways for hydrogen production in China. The cost of steam
technological ability will not only improve the technological reformation of methane is relatively high, meanwhile,
performances including improving the exergy efficiency and harmful gases emission is also a severe problem, and the cost
reliability of technology et al., but also can lower the eco- of water electrolysis depends significantly on the ways of
nomic, mitigate the negative impacts on the environment and electricity generation. Therefore, the economic performance
improve the social performance. of hydrogen supply chain in China is urgent to be improved. In
In the environmental aspect, the availability of using addition, the new technologies for hydrogen production are
renewable energy and energy utilization efficiency are net also prerequisite, because some new technologies such as
causes, whereas effect on the mitigation of harmful gases, biomass fermentation for hydrogen production can not only
fossil fuel consumption and land use are net effects. In addi- improve energy efficiency, but also mitigate CO2 emission [55].
tion, the effect on the mitigation of harmful gases is the most Although there are some promising technologies such as
important core problem needed to be solved, and the avail- electrolysis of water by photovoltaic, biomass supercritical
ability of using renewable energy and energy utilization effi- water gasification and biomass fermentative hydrogen tech-
ciency are the driving factors that can not only mitigate the nology that have been studied for several years, they are still
emission of harmful gases, but also lower the use of fossil fuel not industrialized in large scale in China [56]. Meanwhile some
and land. Therefore, developing new renewable energy sour- other innovative pathways for hydrogen production such as
ces and improving the energy utilization efficiency is useful photosynthesis process and biological water gas shift reaction
for enhancing the environmental performances. are still under pilot stage [57]. It could be concluded that
In the social aspect, seven factors are identified as the research and development (R&D) of hydrogen technology is
important factors, and the sequence form the most important also a main mission for enhancing the sustainability of
to the least is political acceptability, social attractiveness, hydrogen supply chain in China.
human health and safety of employees, occupational index, All to all, the results determined by the proposed method
contribution for energy sufficiency, cultural influence and are consistent with the actual status of the hydrogen supply
inherent safety index. And human health and safety of em- chain in China, and the weak points and the core problems
ployees, occupational index, complementarily with renew- that influence the sustainability of hydrogen supply chain are
ables and inherent safety index are net causes, whereas identified. According to the results, some specified actions
political acceptability, social attractiveness and cultural in- could be obtained for enhancing the sustainability of
fluence are net receivers. According to the results, it is hydrogen supply chain in China. Therefore, it can be
apparent that political acceptability as a factor of ‘cause concluded that the proposed method is useful for enhancing
group’ plays an important role in enhancing the social per- the sustainability of hydrogen supply chain. In addition, this
formances in China, this result fits well with the Chinese method can be popularized to some other cases, and more
conditions, because the whole process of hydrogen supply influencing factors are allowed to be added in this method and
14170 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 8 ( 2 0 1 3 ) 1 4 1 5 9 e1 4 1 7 1

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