PANEL 9

MOVING FORWARD - SUSTAINABILITY AND

DEVELOPMENT

Dr Kamel Ben-Naceur

©KBN
Sustainability Goals

• Affordable and Clean Energy access to all • Limiting global warming to "well below 2 °C"
compared to pre-industrial levels

Source: UN, UNFCC

 Sustainability Goals: Much remains to be done …

• Over 1 billion people w/out electricity • Fossil fuels are 82 % of the energy mix today
• 3 billion without modern energy • CO2 Emissions are not stabilizing or declining
• 6.5 million deaths annually due to air quality • IPCC SR 1.5 report (2018)
• Little progress in recycling
Source: UN, UNFCC, IEA, UNSEA, IPCC
Development associated with increased energy consumption

Energy and GDP 2015-2040

60
GDP/Capita (x1,000 $ PPP)

India World China OECD

50
40
30
20
10
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Energy Consumption per Capita (boe)

Source: OPEC
3
 FOR A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, MULTIPLE
TARGETS NEED TO BE MET

Address
climate
change

Re- Sustainable Universal

use/re- energy
cycling Future access

Air
Quality

4
 4 SCENARIOS CONSIDERED BY
THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA)

▪ Current Policies Scenario

▪ New Policies / Reference Technology Scenario – Includes the
countries NDC’s

▪ 2 Degree Scenario
▪ Beyond 2 Degree Scenario

©KBN
 Reference, 2 Degree and Beyond 2 Degree Scenarios

Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions

Global CO2 reductions by technology area Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060

0 200 400
40
Reference Technology Scenario – RTS
Efficiency 40%
Efficiency 34%

Efficiency 40%
30
Renewables 35%
Renewables 15%
2 degrees Scenario – 2DS Renewables 35%

Fuel switching 5%
GtCO2

20 Fuel switching
Fuel switching 5%
18%
Nuclear 6%
Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS
CCS 14%
Nuclear 6%
Nuclear 1%
10 Other 0%

CCS 14%
CCS 32%

0
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060

Source: IEA
could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris.
A challenging task ahead for CCS

Amount of CO2 captured under various scenarios

12 000
Rest of world

10 000
EU

8 000
Mt CO₂

IND
6 000

CHN
40
4 000

30
MEA
Mt CO₂

2 000
20

10
USA
0
0 2030 2060 2030 2060
Today
Today 2DS B2DS

CCSisishappening
CCS happeningtoday,
today, but needs to be ramped up hundreds of times to achieve long-term goals
Source: IEA
The role for CCS varies based on local circumstances
 Evolution of the electricity mix towards full decarbonization

100%

80%

60%
Electricity mix

40%

20%

0%
RTS 2DS B2DS
2014 2060
Fossil w/o CCS Fossil with CCS Nuclear Bioenergy with CCS Renewables

Source: IEA
HERE IN THE UAE: AL REYADAH CO2 PROJECT
A FIRST-OF-ITS-KIND !
 PANEL 9
MOVING FORWARD - SUSTAINABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT

Dr Kamel Ben-Naceur

©KBN