Economics of Lunar Resources

NASA Ames Space Portal

Mountain View, CA
August 11, 2017

Brad R. Blair
Founder and General Partner
NewSpace Analytics
HOW MINING WORKS
(AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE)
 Discovery & Exploration

Who can spot the orebody?

the Assay Lab
Block Modeling (voxels w kriging)
Verification & Validation
Storage/Archiving
Excavation & Hauling
Mineral Processing & Extraction
Delivery of Product to Customer
 Mineral Resource Classification

Mine
Here
Economic
Viability

Geologic
Uncertainty
LUNAR RESOURCE
VALUATION
 Functional Layout of CSM Models

• Model Structure
Spacecraft propellant – Architecture
Demand Model PTV Benefit – Parametric sizing
Model – Demand models
Orbital Transfer – Cost model
Demand Model – Feasibility
OTV Benefit • Goals of Modeling
Model – Determine feasible
PTV Sizing conditions (Go / No Go)
– Insight into critical
Feasibility assumptions
OTV Sizing – Insight into systems
Model dynamics (sensitivity)
Lunar Plant Results – Identification of critical
Sizing risk factors
– Technology sensitivity
analysis (investment
L-1 Depot NAFCOM Integrated prioritization)
Sizing Cost Model Cost Model
 E-M Gravity Well (enabling physics)

B. Blair SU Econ Lecture, Mtn View, CA July 2010 15

 Markets for Space Resources

NASA-Science
Military Missions
Debris Management
Satellite Servicing & Refueling
International Space Station
Human Exploration
Space Solar Power
Self-Sustaining Colonies

B. Blair SU Econ Lecture, Mtn View, CA July 2010 16

Automated Underground Mining
 FY02 Feasibility Modeling
Feasibility Process Summary: Version Summary Description
Version 0 = Baseline (most conservative) 1.1c.0 Baseline Baseline Version -all assumptions the same as previously except for
Versions 1-3: Relax assumptions… 1.2.0 demand and architecture changes

1.1c.1 No Non-Rec. Investments Assumes the public sector pays for the Non-Recurring Investments
Version 4 shows a positive rate of return for 1.2.1 (design, development and first unit cost)

private investment (6%)
Version 4 Assumes:
Zero non-recurring costs (DDT&E)
30% Production cost reduction
1.1c.2 No Non-Rec. Investments, 30% Assumes the above, and Reduces the First unit production cost of all
1.2.2 Production Cost Reduction elements by 30%
1.1c.3
1.2.3
No Non-Rec. Investments, 30%
Production Cost, 2x Lunar Water
Assumes all the above, and a Concentration of Water in Lunar
Regolith twice higher than the current best estimate.
Concentration Reduction

2% Ice concentration 1.1c.4 No Dev. Cost, 30% Production Cost Same as above, and Double the Demand
1.2.4 Reduction, 2x More Water on Moon, 2x
2x Demand level (i.e., 300T/yr) Demand

Architectures 1 and 2: Net Present Value Comparison

3.0
2.0
1.0
Version 0 Version 1 Version 2
0.0
NPV [$B]

Version 3 Version 4
-1.0
=FEASIBLE=
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0 Arch 1
Arch 2
-5.0
-6.0

B. Blair SU Econ Lecture, Mtn View, CA July 2010 19

Mars Surface Population Forecast:
10,000 people by 2070
Extrapolation
CLOSING THE CREDIBILITY
GAP
 State of the Art

What do these two images

have in common?

Both images show an

advanced sensor platform
surrounded by a valuable
natural resource
 Mineral Resource Classification

Debt
Equity VC
Economic
Viability

Geologic
Uncertainty
 Lunar Volatiles Need Calibration!

Remote sensing
LRO = 192Terabytes

Ground truth
One data point !

More Prospecting is REQUIRED

Finding ore using aircraft or satellites is HARD
 Reducing Resource Business Risk

Requires More Information

Information

Lunar
Volatiles
Market

Geologic
Information
 Ground Truth is Required

Ground truth for Lunar Resources

– Mobility
– Geosensors
– Multiple samples at depth
– ISRU demonstration
 Information Creates Economic Value

Stages of a Mining Project Time

• Exploration Value (years)
– Prospecting & Discovery
– Assay & Claim Staking
start

• Evaluation & Planning

– Exploration & Delineation
– Mine & Process Engineering
5-10
• Operations
– Mine Development
– Production & Refining 20+
– Delivery to Customer
Discussion