Dr. Yoram Bauman, Grady Klein (Auth.) - The Cartoon Introduction To Climate Change (2014, Island Press - Center For Resource Economics) PDF

The
(,!!
introduction to
, l

We’re grateful to the following
people and organizations for helping
to make this book possible, including
via generous contributions on
*,(, (.
3+'l l
"'
)-"'l-.
(! *
James Adcock Jeanette Henderson Nikolai Rovneiko

Brian Arbogast Lars Henrikson Deb Rudnick
Marcia Baker The Hildebrand Farm Family Monica Samec and Barry Rawn
Rebecca Tuttle Baldwin (in memory of alex and barbara) Christian Sarason
(see cameo of Mark, page 194) (see page 176) Ben Schiendelman
The Bauman family Tom M Hinckley Kai Uwe Schmidt
Mary Bennett (see Chipper, page 144)
Joe Shapiro
Jared Bibler Nancy Hirshberg Eric V Siegel
Nicholas A. Bond Deborah C. Hoard (author of Predictive Analytics)
Christophe Bontemps Joanne Hossack Sightline Institute
(see page 142) Eleanor Hungate Rachelle Simon
Alex Bozmoski Noah Iliinsky Joel Singer
Glenn Branch Tom Imeson Teresa Machusak Smith
Derik Broekhoff Thomas Insel Amy Snover
Susan Brooks Chantrelle Johanson Jon Stahl
Linda R. Brown Kari Jones Erica Stephan
Rachel Brown Veronica Karas Betty Tanzey
Truman Buffett Chang Kawaguchi (see page 140)
Jeff Caswell Matt Keller Lisa Tesler
Andrew Christophe Uli Kindermann Chris Thoung
Matt Clements Christopher W Klein Jennifer Tice
Ana Unruh Cohen Johanna Klein Stephanie Tobor
(see page 195) Suzanna Klein Mark Trexler
Kenn Compton Jim Kremer (see page 57)
James Conklin Karen Kurciska Dan Trueman
Eugene Cordero Andreas Lange axel Utz
Steven Crook Matt Langford Sara Vikstr0m
James Cunningham Patrick Leslie Jan-Willem Van de Ven
nar Dao Jane Lindley John Vechey
Ben and Sarah Davis Victoria Lugli (see page 187)
Karen Deaver (see Kiran, page 193) Randall Wall
Sahan Dissanayake Bas Maase Peter Wallace
Ken Dragoon Michael Marvin Spencer Weart
Jordan Ellenberg Ben Mathew (author of The Discovery of
Guillaume Mauger Global Warming)
Malcolm Fawcett
Josephine Saxton Ferorelli Elizabeth A McGee Mandie Weinandt
Todd Fitch Daniel Melnechuk Daniel Weise
Kate Forester Jonathan Miller John Whitehead and Tim Haab
(of http://www.env-econ.net/)
Maury Forman Todd Myers (see page 106)
Taylor Gaar Ramez Naam Kent Whiting
portia, lucien and araminta Frikk Nesje June Williamson
Gaitskell Anneliese O’Leary Matthew Willner
Richard Gammon Jed Odermatt Mark Wilson
Philip Garland Brando Omerta Kiel Winch
(see page 98) Ceyda Oner
Scott A.George Emily Winter
Mieko A. Ozeki Edward Wolf
Pam Glenn Mary Paschall
Naomi Goldenson Shannan Wong
Dorothy Reilly Spencer Wright
Gareth Green (see page 189)
Sonia Hamel Kim Ries Sammie G. Young, Sr
Migee Han Leonard Rifas Erik Zemljic
Michael Harnish Paul Rippey Andrew Zwicker
Karl Hausker Abigail Rose
The (,!!
introduction to
, l

By (6l land

5!(l.:l"h.
%
the World’s first and only ),=.#l !!*,
Text copyright © 2014 by Yoram Bauman
Artwork copyright © 2014 by Grady Klein
All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright
Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by
any means without permission in writing from the publisher:
Island Press, 2000 M Street NW, Suite 650, Washington, DC, 20036
Island Press is a trademark of Island Press/Center for Resource Economics.
Library of Congress Control Number: 2014938166
printed on recycled, acid-free paper
Manufactured in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
62!(*Z global warming, greenhouse gases, fossil fuels, energy
efficiency, economic development, carbon dioxide, ice-age, Milankovitch
Cycles, cap-and-trade, carbon tax
For Anne and Liam and benjamin
—GK
For my friends and mentors at Reed College and Sightline Institute,
especially Noel Netusil, Mike Foley, and Alan Durning
—YB
!, ,*
Part One:
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Part Three:
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Data sources and detailed page notes
for the entire book are available at
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observations
l #, (ln
introduction
+2!l*,!( *lare
going to dominate
the 21st century.
Grady Klein and Yoram Bauman, The Cartoon Introduction to Climate Change,
DOI 10.5822/ 978-1-61091-570-0_1, © 2014 by Yoram Bauman
),!(6l?nlis about !! l(!2,:l
especially in poor countries in ) and '%
"+)land '='+l )l

are going to create a lot of 2l1+...
you’re feeling the

benefits of what
Adam Smith called
the 0* l
%
You can learn

more about that
in the (,!!l
,(!. ,!l,!l
!! *.
...and give many more people the

opportunity to #.(*. l, (l( *%
I want to be a
(9l
i want to be an
*,(!.,9
4
as families get wealthier, they Having more kids i wonder
tend to have 2 (l ( ... is + one of my 26<
DREAMS!
...so the world population is likely to # at aboutl

nml!lpeople and then slowly decline.
!.l
( 69
1900 2000 2100
as a result, story #1 points in a direction

that’s nothing short of ( .!.*%
A world of o=sl!l
2 h . , and
therefore ,6 and
2 ,6 people!
it seems ,!!l
!!l,!l l
,(. 9
But what aboutl*,!(6l?o<l

5
story #2 is about the
0(! ,l# ,l
of all this growth and
development.
What’s going to happen

when !*l!l
)) and ')
all try to live l
')< The invisible hand of
free-market economics
isn’t likely to fix ,*...
...Not without
some #9
6
0(! ,l ! (* cover all sorts of topics.
overfishing
pollution
endangered species
habitat loss
This book focuses on , l %
also known
as !l
2(.
7
Climate change is a #!, 6l ( l**. ...
you’re a you’re an
l (9 (*,9
...but it might be possible to find some l' -

...
That common Nonsense,

ground better be 2 E( ll
6 FEET UNDER because !l,!l
2 E( ll!l /9
,!l
9
...by thinking of climate

change as al,( ,%l
how does
,*l!
compare?
List of Threats:
es
Violent Video Gam
National Debt
Terrorism
Asteroids
Climate Ch
ange
Bird Flu
Stupidity
Junk Food
Polluted
Drinking Water
Bad Speeling
Poverty
Space Aliens
8
Reality TV
Maybe it’s an 4*, ,l,( ,...
...and maybe it’s only a !(l,( ,...
Climate change could
turn the earth into an How do you know it
l"+%l won’t be an 1) l
ALIEN PLANET?
...and maybe it’ll be *lbefore we know for sure.
and by then it might Or to do No wonder

bel,!!l, l,! **9 climate change is
l!l!( 9 such a 2 l
#(! %
this book will help you l.#l6!.(l!2l%l
and learn 2,l

6!.l l!l ...and what
!.,l,... we can l!l
,! , (9
9
you might find it hard to believe that humans can
. l, l ,( l# ,...
...but there’s lots of scientific evidence that

.l ,0,6 is l, l , %l
Mostly as a result of
.(l!**l. *landl
!( *,,!%
and sometimes !,l
,l, l* l, 9
nvrm* ommm*
10
This book is about the * l
of climate change...
q
!o
om
...and HOW CLIMATE CHANGE MIGHT

AFFECT l!l (,...
...and 2,l2 l l

!l!.,l,%
11
A good place to start is with a few ,!*...
+ refers to what the weather in a certain place is -)-5l%l
Seattle in July .*.6 ...And it

has Afternoon highs of !*,l 0 (l Sounds
on=ou l(69-82 F)...
!
o
(*9 # ( ,l!(l
l2 9
-)-5 doesn’t mean 15)...

...so You should think of CLIMATE as
/'l1+'...
Sorry! CLIMATE is LIKE YOUR WEATHER is

This is very "') +5% LIKE YOUR
--)-%
%
...and , l as a ll0 ( l2 , (.
On average,
these flowers now
bloom ! l2 l
( (l,l, 6l
lpml6 (*l!.
12
...and with an !* (0,!.
Earth’s climate
has 26*l
ll.4%l
Here on Planet Earth,
climate change
has 26*l l
ll ,l!l ...
...and it
26*
lll2l %
13
But if the climate is
always changing then
2,E*l ( ,l
+)l+<
what do
" " have
to do with it?
!!l
&. *,!9l
Let’s start to answer
it by taking a brief look
at the *,!(6l!l
# ,l(,%
14
l #, (lo
a brief history of planet earth
Tell me
0 (6,l
,,E*l##
*!l(%
Well, first
the (,l
!! ...
...and
then the
!*.(*l
...
that’s rml!
The earth formed about times older than
4.6l!lyears ago. grandpa.
4.6 bya 4 bya 3 bya 2 bya 1 bya Now
in the early days it was a great

!, ll!l&.l(! ...
...which belched out !,l* * and 2, (l0#!(l

to form the early ,!*# ( and ! *%
#(,0 l l!(* appeared in the oceans

sometime within the first !l6 (*%
q.s bya Now
What do you
What do you call a single-celled you and your
call a single-celled organism *# l jokes are so
organism !,ll ll,. < #(,0 9
l#(!(l* <
!% (!%
16
then, After .( *l!l!*l!l
6 (*l!l 0!.,!...
Will you two
q.s bya Now )-+l-"!
What do you What do you I’m trying to
call a single-celled call a single-celled +'+9
organism that 0 *ll organism * ( l!l
6!.(l!4< , l2<
% (,%
...some of these organisms figured out

oxygenic #!,!*6, **...
.( 9
9l
harriet,
#.,l!l*! l
!, *9
...which is the l( ,! that allows

( l,* like #,* and to grow.
it turns
*.,, 2, (: and Green things are
(!l!4 ... the ) of the

l%l
...into things like Without +
(! ! and there could be
l*#(!.,*% Ohl( ,% nol-)%
17
in chapter 4 we’ll
see the influence oflll
ll.l ,0,6%
!26*, green
things play a key role in
the (!l 6 ...
every year about uml!l

,!* of atmospheric carbon

)) /)ll* 2, (...
meanwhile, about noml!l,!*
...and about that much gets sucked in by #,* through
returns to the atmosphere #!,!*6, **...
through !.,**.
...and about that much returns
to the atmosphere through ( ,
!#!*,!, and ( *#(,!
by plants and animals.
And there’s lots more,

like mixing between the )-'l
and the
"l %
...which is crucial to
l l!l (,%
You ( what
youl ,9
Mostly Water Mostly Water Mostly Water

and Carbon and Carbon and Carbon
18
between about 2.8 and 2.3 !l6 (*l green slime
!, however, green things did something is (!**6
perhaps even !( l#!(,,. underappreciated.
q.s bya Now
They pumped lots and

lots of !46 into
the atmosphere.
Getting 35lJ! oKlinto the + )"'

was '5l" '++ because...

.9lBecause well, that’s
) true...
need OXYGEN ...but this
,!l( , % was a billion years
!( l*%
...because it led to the creation of a 6 (l!l 7 lJ! pKl

about 15 miles above the surface of the planet.
What’s so
important about
,,<
Well, .%
turn the page
to find out.
19
!( lthelOZONE LAYER,
had to l(!l, l*.%
q.s bya Now
The sun generates

/)l+...
...but it also generates

5l-+'/ +l
'
+ %
that’s why we live
. (2, (lor
. (l(! *%
, (lthe ozone layer, the

sun’s *,l.0l(6*lgotl! ...
4.6 bya Now
ozone is like
*.* ( l Sunscreen
Protects against
!(l, l ,( l UVA & UVB
# ,% for up to 2 Hours!
Ozone Now with

Catalytic
Action!
Protects against
DEADLY UVC
for Billions of Years.
...and that allowed life to move ,!l, l*.* %
.( 9
no, harriet,
!,l9
No wonder everybody got worried when scientists discovered

l! ll, l!8! l6 (lin the 1980s.
20
Environmental
despite what many people think, problems are !,
The ozone hole is !, closely all the same...
related to global warming... ...and you can’t
solve them all by
( 6 %
...but it is valuable to !#( and !,(*, the two issues...
The ozone hole is

related to human emissions of
!8! = *,(!6 gases such
as ' - ' ' )l
J*K.
Global warming is related

to human emissions of
( !.* gases such asl
(!l!4 lJ o K.
...And we can take heart from the #(!( **

we’ve made in repairing the ozone hole.
President Reagan If only global

signed the !,( l warming were
#(!,! !lthat helped so *69l
phase out CFCs...
...and the
ozone layer is
( !0 (%l
But let’s get back to the

)+ '5l l"+l'+...
21
The ")+l l5') have seen
2l) in the +%
q.s bya Now

The only thing
"'+ is
%
There WERE times when

l !0 ( l!*,l 0 (6,...
This ) 1l
'+ is FREEZING!
Good thing there
weren’t actually
" " back then.
...and times when

, l!(,l#! l2*l,(!# %l
Good thing there

weren’t actually
boy, i could " " back then.
really use some
l, 9
sorry,
there’s
!l %
22
Of central importance to our story is
the (! (!.*l# (!:
some psmhpmml!lyears ago.
q.s bya Now

,l but still
.*9 ,l !l# !# %
,l (*9
( #, *9
some of the
organisms that What do you call

then got a single-celled
buried... organism 6l
ll! <l

!.%
...and cooked underground for

.( *l!l!*l!l6 (*...
Knock knock Who’s there?
% Oil 2!<
l l %
...and eventually turned into ' =)

l ))l-).
that’s where a
lot of our
comes from... ...and plenty of
and +-'l):
too.
23
During the last nmml!l6 (*...
q.s bya 4 bya 3 bya 2 bya 1 bya
100 mya 80 mya 60 mya 40 mya 20 mya Now
...the continents *!26l(, into

the positions they have today...
Continents move at about

the speed that your
(*l(!2...
...about nmml *
every !l6 (*%
...and species either l! or *!26l

0!0 linto the forms they have today.
thanks to an
*, (! 65 million
years ago...
...it was goodbye
0 ! (#,!(...
...and hello
%
100 mya Now
even more recently, the Earth’s climate has

l
1ll,... ...but is a ( ,0 l, (%
30 million
years with nol Look,
*!2l ...and no we’ve
l
(,*... ,(!# l
19
!(,l
#! *9
wow, what
were you like
!( <
24
100 mya Now
In particular, over the past

2.6l!l6 (* the planet has gone
through ( # , l5*...
...of 2(l"'

)...
...and !!l"'

).
Scientists call
them l
"'
)%
Everyone
else calls them
ll)%
25
100 mya Now that’s only o,mmml
, * older than
grandpa.
finally, about omm:mmml6 (*l!... a l
!ll 6 l
in the earth’s
lifespan.
...anatomically modern .l *lappeared in africa.
+l9l
it wasn’t long before they started

asking ,!.l&. *,!*%
I wonder how
I can 0!l l I wonder
, < what .*
the l *<
I wonder where
I can l*! l
!,l*. <
26
l #, (lp
the ice ages
Go back 15,000 years

and this was under
a l!l 9
early geologists hypothesized that
there .*, have been l *%
there must have
What could have carried been **0 l
, * l+l' ) here (*9
or
from ,!* l
)++l #( *,!( l
-+)< ,*9
20th century scientists !( this

by studying Earth’s two remaining ,l l* ,*%
one’s over
,( , ... ...the other’s over
( .
these ice sheets

were built up over
.( *l!l
,!.**l!l
6 (*%
28
By (l!2l
,(!.l,,l ... ...and 68lthe various layers...
i’ve got a l !( *l
6-foot !9 are a bit likel
i’ve got a
mile-long +'l')%
l !( 9
...scientists can estimate the 0 ( l*.( l, # (,.(

of planet earth far into the *,,l#*,%
Over the past 800,000

YEARS there have been ...including the
1'l"'
)... #*,lnm:mmml
6 (*.
jq !
Average Today
but those
warm periods
have been the =q !
3"+ )%
=u !
600,000 ya
400,000
200,000
Now
Source: IPCC AR5 Figure 5.3
these l !( *m suggest that Earth has usually been about

s (11 F)
' than it is now.m
That difference in
temperature may
* l*...
...but it was
big enough for
glaciers to .(6l
%
29
Thel6*, (6l!ll I wonder why there
aren’t (* and don’t say
lll, l l *... here anymore? #( *,!( l
,*9
...was mostly solved by the Serbian mathematician

-+l /+lduring the First World War%
compared to the 6*, (6l

of why we’re fighting thisl
.l2(...
...this is E*l
#6%
He studied the ,* of the earth’s !(,l(!.l, l*....
it orbits
once a year...
...but over the
years it (*
and 2! * a bit.
...including the ,, of the earth, which causes 2, (* and *. (*.
In .6 the
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE gets In .(6 the
!( l*.... NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
is ( and !...
April
N N
S S
...and the
October SOUthERN HEMISPHERE
...and the SOUTHERN gets !( l*.%l
HEMISPHERE is (l
and !%
!,l,!l* %
30
And now, in
it turns out that the tilt 0( * )+' 6l1),
the tilt of the earth
over tens of thousands of years. is 23.4l ( *l
and slowly getting
2 (% We’ll have
an update in the
year nn:mmm%
When the TILT is stronger,l)) )l( l*,(! (...
my is
my head is ( 8...
!l( ...
...and my ,
...and my feet are !l( 9
are ( 89
...and when the TILT is weaker, )) )l( l2 (.
i’m getting cooked a

more 0 l!.,l ...no matter what
l(!.... time of year it is.
+2!l!, (l '+l/'+ )lalso affect

the strength of the seasons.
IN ADDITION TO ,,,
THERE’S ,( ,6
and #( **!...
...but you can
think of them
as 2 * and
*.
31
the !0, l 6 ltheory says that
these three orbital variations...
...set the (6, for the ice ages...
like a
# (%
...by triggering #!*,0 l l!!#*%
soda makes
me !l (86...
going crazy
makes me
,(*,6...
positive feedback
loopsl"6l
*...
...so that (86
turns into 0 l
!( l (86%
see the
!**(6
for details.
32
sometimes those positive feedback loops
bring the earth !.,l!ll l ...
I’m going
+'9
...and sometimes they send us l,!l! %
getting
* #6...
...makes me
0 l!( l
* #6%
zzzzzzzz.
let’s see how it works in !* (l ,%
33
for more details, see
for !0, in
A *# the glossary...
0 (*!lof ...or read my
the Milankovitch sos=# l!!9
story...
...imagine we’re in during a l# (!%
like the one that

peaked om:mmml
6 (*l!%
The Milankovitch cycles eventually create

conditions with *,(!l* *!*.
!,l!, summers. !l !lwinters.
!,* of , But there isn’t enough

l ll*!2% 1l) 1lto keep up
with the *. (l ,%
that causeslll) 1lto slowly give way to

ll1+'%
Now we can
plant # l
*6(.#l,( *9l
34
#6 the Milankovitch cycles are
thingsllike the =
l+...
Ice and snow '+ Land and water

lots of sunlight back ) ' more
into space. sunlight.
...which create " )+/l

l ")...
melting ice and snow

leads to (l
, # (,.( *...
higher 2( turns

into 0 l!( l
temperatures 2(%
,l ll
*!2...
...that bring about a global , ( l# (!%l
it sure is
!,land !.l What?
in here!
35
to see how it works in the other direction,
imagine we’re in the middle of an , ( l# (!%
Like the ONE

WE'RE IN 1%l The
Mammoth
Room
TONITE 7 pm, No Cover

Milankovitch
and the Feedbacks
The Milankovitch cycles eventually create conditions with l* *!*%
lsummers. lwinters. but still cold

enough for snow
drip ofnot much
water.melting ice in places like
and snow. %
that causeslll) 1lto slowly replace

ll1+'%
What’s MORE CANADIAN

than # l*6(.#<
l 59
36
now things like the = !l , work in the !, (l( ,!...
Land and water

that used to
) ' lots
of sunlight...
...get covered with

Ice and snow that
'+ sunlight.
...creating " )+/l

l "*lthat !! the planet.
more ice and snow

!2 (*l
lll, # (,.( *...
lower
temperatures
mean !( l ll
llll*!2...
!! turns
into 0 l!( l
!!%
all this brings up a #( ,,6l!0!.*l&. *,!%
Given that we’re

.(( ,6 in an
, ( l
# (!...
...should we
worry about thel
4,l l <
37
The *2 ( is that mother nature *l
gearing up for !, (l l ...
...but not for at least pm:mmml6 (*%l
Oh no, we better
*,! l.#l!ll
ll ,l!9
Ha!
0 (l
9
and long before ,, happens we’re going to have to come

to terms with what 2 E( doing to the climate.
um, About that

,l!...
38
l #, (lq
CARBON DIOXIDE
EMPTY YOUR
MIND ...
...and focus on
something !!( **,
!!( **, and
0* .
What we call ( is actually a mixture
that’s about onbl!46 ... ...and about tubl,(! .
created over the

eons by all that nnual
photosynthesizing 7th A ogen
( l*,.% Nitray ol
#
D
N2
the N2
Nth Dragtohe
I’m n
into Power
N2
The ( nb
includes 2, (l0#!(...
...and relatively ,6l!.,*

of other gases...
...including (!l!4 ( o).
Air is only about

0.04% o...
...but that still equals about
q:mmm:mmm:mmm:mmm:mmm:mmml
molecules of olin
every breath you take.
40
In the early 1950s a chemist named
( *l
0l ...
call me

0 %
...figured out a way to accurately measure

, l ! ,(,!l!l (!l!4 ll(%
What’s the ol
( l
between these ll
two samples? l!9
Starting in 1958, Keeling and his colleagues made 6l *.( ,*
of COo at the .l!l * (0,!(6 in 2...
C’mon dad, let’s

go to the 9
Sorry, kid,
not now.
...and the results made himl!.*%l

41
Keeling made ,2!ll* !0 ( *. First, he discovered an
.l 6 lin COo concentrations.
CO 2 concentrations [parts per million]
325
dude, It’s like
the planet is
320
'+9
Okay, hippie,
take it easy.
315
310
!0l 5l !0l 5l !0 Source: http://scrippsCO2.ucsd.edu

nvrv nvsm nvsm nvsn nvsn
This cycle is related to the * *!*... ...and to the (!l 6 ...
Look at Look at
page 30! page 18!
S !.,
...and to the fact that !*,l!l, l on earth is in the '+'l)"'%l
look at
a #9
!( ll
means !( l
'l)+-.
42
when it’s 2, (lin the north:
extra COo gets “exhaled” into the atmosphere...
...thanks to processes like the !#!*,!l!ll 0 *.
globally, lots
more green stuff
is 6 and
( *l !o... ...than
(!2 and
*!(l,%

* *
conversely, when it’s *. (lin the north:

that extra COo gets “inhaled” by ( * l#!,!*6, **%
globally,
lots more green stuff
is (!2 and
*!(l !o ...
...than
6 and
( *l,%

*

*
43
Keeling’sl* !ll* !0 (6 was that COo concentrations
in the atmosphere were ( *l!0 (l, %
325
CO 2 concentrations [ppm]
320
315
310
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967
Source: http://scrippsCO2.ucsd.edu
When Keeling started in 1958, the increase was about
nl"'+l"'l lJppmKl# (l6 (%
an increase of
nlppm equals about
ol l3+'l+ ) ...or almost
of ' ... ul l3+'l
+ ) ofl o%
See ' in
the glossary for
details.
Keeling’s measurements continued for 6 (*, and then *,

and after his retirement his son stepped into his shoes.
C’mon son, let’s

go to the 9
Sorry, dad,
not now.
44
The graph of the daily measurements that they and their colleagues
have made since 1958 is called the l .(0 .
400
380
in 2014, we’re
near qmm ppm and
increasing by about
o ppml"'l5'%
360
340
that’s nsl!l
4,(l,!* of
co2 every year.
320
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: http://scrippsCO2.ucsd.edu
it is now one of the !*,l!.*l * in the world...
...and one of the central pieces of 0 in this book.
what does it
< It means -l
+/+5 is visible on a
# ,(6l* %
45
39% coal
In the 19th century the major source of human
COo emissions was
')++ ...
(l,( * to make
room for farms and cities...
...releases the ' that
wasl*,!( ll,!* l,( *l
into the atmosphere.
Coal-burning
power plants are the
?nl*!.( lof COo.
31% petroleum
...but now it’s the by 2010 we were

))l-)lthat provide most burning through
of our +'+5 and power qp:mmml!* of
petroleuml/'5l
our + ') and (*% )
%
22% natural gas/other

Natural gas
production is
growing thanks
to '%
8% deforestation
nuvm nvom nvrm nvum omnm Source: IPCC AR5 Figure 6.8
qll+ )l!l !o sll+ )l!l !o nmll+ )l!l !o oqll+ )l!l !o ptll+ )l!l !o
J1ll,!*l!l (!K Joll,!*l!l (!K J3 l,!*l!l (!K Jtll,!*l!l (!K J10ll,!*l!l (!K
About smb of that extra coo gets ...and by other (!l**l

absorbed by #,*land *!*... such as the ! *...
forests still cover We’ll come back to this

about nNplof the in Chapter 8, on ! l
earth’s land. ,!.
We’ll come
back to this in
Chapter 15.
...but the rest *,6*ll, l,!*# ( , pushing up the Keeling curve.

46
here’s how the nml!l,!*
of carbon we emit each year
amplifies the (!l 6 %
as we saw on page 18, about

omml!l,!*lcycle naturally every year.
but every year we add another

ql l+ ) to the ,!*# ( ...
...3l l+ ) to the ! *...
...and 3l l+ ) that are absorbed

by #,*ll*!*.
Human emissions are a )l'+ lof the natural cycle,

but over timel,l
)l-"%
more than ...and pretty soon

you 4 ... your lungs will
4#! %l
47
Scientists have also put the Keeling
curve in *,!( l !, 4,...
...by studying the amount of coo
trapped in l !( *%
What did CO2
concentrations look drill, baby,
like !( lnvru< (%
they discovered that +!6E*l 0 * are !l, l (,*

compared to the last 800,000 years.
by 2014 it was
near qmmlppm%
400
in 1900 it was
about pmmlppm%
300
200
800,000 ya 600,000 ya 400,000 ya 200,000 ya Now
Source: IPCC AR5 Figure 5.3 and http://scrippsCO2.ucsd.edu

48
Even 'l7 is the relationship between
this *,!( l ol
+...
CO2 data
...and thell 'l+"'+-'l

+ from page 29.
temperature
data
800,000 ya
400,000
600,000
200,000
Now
it’s !0!.* that coo and temperature have been

!* 6l( , l!(l !*%
What are the odds

of that happeningl
5l<
Less than
! lll
!9
49
The ! ,! between COo and temperature is SO STRONG
that it’sl *6l,!l ,l''
l15.
dude, COo must be

thel(0l!( l
behind the ice ages! be careful,
that’s !,l
''+ is
,(. 9l !,l-)+ %
so keep in mindlwhat we
( ll, l)+l"+'...
The /+l

5)l* ,l, l, #! ...as we move on to the 4,l"+'%
for the ice ages.
ol# *l
, l ** 9
CO2 Feedback
Ice-Albedo Feedback
50
l #, (lr
energy
Your l -+l

depends on 5l
and 5l -+...
...and the
'+E)l+"'+-'
depends on '5ll
and '5l -+%
If you spend a year measuring air temperaturesl
l!0 (l, l*.( l!l, l# ,...
currently about
nr!l(59 F)%
o
...you can calculate the !l0 ( l, # (,.( for planet Earth.
if you wanted to, you could

do the same thing for your !.* %l
What
are you
!<
about
om !l(68 F)%
o
52
The two dominant influences on global average temperature are
(6lland (6l!.,%l
It’s true for your

house and it’s true for
thel2! l# ,%
When (6llexceedsl (6l!.,,

the planet 2(*l.#...
just like your

!.* l2(*l.#lwhen you
,.(l!l, l , (%
...and When (6l!.,lexceedsl (6ll,

the planet !!*l!2%l
just like your

!.* l !!*l!2 when
you !# ll2!2%
So to understand global temperature we need to understand

more about (6llandl (6l!.,%
53
(6l is simple.
if you picture the sun as a

* , on one end of
a full-size court... ...then the earth would be
a ( l(l!l*l
under the other basket.
54
Energy from the sun comes in the form of
+' +l'
+ , which includes...
....,(0! ,lJ.0Kl(,!:lwith short, high-energy wavelengths...
uv is partially
blocked by the
!8! l6 (%
(see page 20.)
...0* l,, which covers the 2! l(!2 (literally!)...
0* l, is the only

kind of electromagnetic
radiation people can see.
...and (( lJ(Kl(,!:lwith long, low-energy wavelengths.
we’ll come back to

this in a moment.
55
(6l!.,lis more complicated.
for example, It includes

solar energy that is ( , l ll
,!l*# l6l !.*...
...and by , l (,E*l*.( %
it’s
!9 about pmb of all
incoming energy is
reflected by clouds, ice,
snow, sand, etc.
56
Crucially, energy out *! includes radiation
0 l!l6l, l (,l,* %
THE '+ DOESN’T

EMIT AS MUCH ENERGY
AS THE )-...
...BUT IT
)l
+l'5%
This outgoing energy is in the (( part of

the electromagnetic spectrum...
the earth’s infrared

wavelengths are even
! ( and !2 (l (6
than infrared from the sun.
...and is familiar to anybody who has used , (l equipment...
there’s a 6l##
inside this wall...
...and a hiding
in that closet%
...or huddled near al!,l( .
you can’t * in the morning

infrared light, but it will no longer
you can it. be '
l +...
...but it will still be
''
l +%
57
and that brings us to ( !.* l* *.
,
2, (l (!l
0#!( !4
Plus others
that are less
important.
om q
!o
what makes them ( !.* gases

is that they !E,l, ( ,
much with (6l...
...butl!l, ( ,
don’t
mind us. with (6l!.,%
go right
on in.
2!9l slow
down.
om q
om
!o
q
!o
Greenhouse gases
! some of
the outgoing
wavelengths.
58
By reducing energy out,
greenhouse gases 2(l, l# ,%
reducing energy
out is also how
)-+! warms
up your -)...
...or a +
warms up yourl!6...
...or a
' -)l
warms up your
+ + )%
59
by the numm*, scientists had FIGURED OUT that greenhouse gases
HAve a !(l# , on the earth’s temperature...
The +- global

average temperature
is about nq! (57 F)...
o
...butl1+ -+l
' -)l))
it would be -nu! (0 F).
o
...and today, scientists know that similar greenhouse effects exist

!l!, (l# ,*:llikel0 .*%
o
!
!o ! o
!o o !o
o
!
o ! o
!
o
!
!o
Venus has tml+)

MORE atmospheric that’s a big reason
COo than Earth. the surface temperature
is qso ! (863 F).
o hotter than al
#88l!0 9
60
The greenhouse effect on / .* is of course
+l-)
l5l-)...
or by
'+)! or by
"')+ 'l
+)9l
...and we didn’t create the +-'l' -)l+lon Earth either.
During the past 2 million years

COo levels varied between
num ppmland oum ppm... ...and during
+ -)l'+
periods, they were and that was
-:l. l 26l !( l
'% .*9
!o
!o
as we learned in chapter 4, however, we’ve been

!,* of GREENHOUSE GASES to the atmosphere.
since the start of thel

-)+'l'/ -+
in the late 1700s ...
...we’ve increased CO2
levels from 280 ppm ...
...to qmm ppm.
61
The Swedish chemist (( .* was one of the first people to speculate about
the consequences of an l( !.* l ,%
This is going to be
great for ( (*l
l)2 9
In nuvs he studied what would happen if

we
- COo concentrations...
...and MADE A ROUGH CALCULATION OF
the /+-l')lin l
What if we went /'l+"'+-'%l
from 280 ppm...
...to 560 ppm<l
About r ! (9 F).o
incredibly, he came 0 (6l !* to the range that climate scientists calculate today.
About 1.5=4.5!C (2.7– 8.1 F). o
62
l #, (ls
climate science
why should
I TRUST 5 -<
Don’t trust -)%
Trust the
)+l
+
%
The * , l ,! involves !( lequals
0 !#l6#!, * *... ** times
(,!%
F = ma
..., *, them *,l, l( l2!(...
yup, it works and on and on

on (,. the !!9 (*9
...and then ( those hypotheses to incorporate 2l,...
oops, it doesn’t ...or at

work perfectly 0 (6ll
at 0 (6l*l *# *.
* *...
...and 2l *%
let’s try
something
( ,%
E=mc
E=mc 2
E=mc3
64
because This process involves
anl **l*.##6l!l 2l
&. *,!*...
mommy, where do
,!* come from?
mommy, how old is
the .0 (* <
mommy, why do
praying mantises ,l
, (l.**<
...and 2l 4# ( ,*...
let’s see what

happens when we add
(!!,l!!#*9
...it will 0 ( produce “) -+l+'-+.”
even thel
, !(6l!l(0,6
is .*,ll, !(6%
but the )+l+

is still our *,l,!! for
. (*,l, l26l, l2!(l2!(*%
it’s what you

should l+
before you "%
65
The ideal way tol, *,ll6#!, **
is with a !,(! l 4# ( ,...
we gave +)l l
1+'lto these let’s see
plants... ...and l1+'l 2 l! *l
to these ones. *.(00 %
we gave 4,(!
to these hyperactive
kids... ...and !, to let’s see which
these ones. ones can
! ,(, l
,, (%
...but that’s !,l26*l#!** %
66
For example, you can’t do +'
l3"'+)
about ) ...
we gave
+/l
!+l)+) ...and !, to
to these kids... these ones.
...or about +l%
we !. l, l ol
on this planet... ...and !,
on this one.
fortunately, that hasn’t stopped Scientists from

l"' '))lon both of these issues.
when you can’t

work in the lab...
...you have
to go outside and
* ( l!(l . *:
like a , ,0 %
67
in fact, the SCIENTIFIC HISTORIES of
*! and , l are SIMILAR.
what
*(, *
could there
possibly be?
cough
*,!# cough
over time, the link between

*! and * * has
(!2l ( (...
...and ( (...
“The weight of the ...and ( (...
0 suggests that
excessive smoking is “Cigarette smoking is
! l!l, l .*,0 l .*6l( ,
,!(* in lung tol.l ( “ (0 cancer,
cancer.” in %G 6 cancer,
# ( ,
cancer...”
Surgeon
General Surgeon
1957 General Surgeon
General
1964
2004
...and so has the link between

( !.* l*l **!* and !l2(%
“The balance of 0 l “There is 2 and “It is 4,( 6l 6 that
suggests a * ( l *,(! (l 0 %G human influence has been the
.l. on !,l .* of the
global climate.” observed warming since the
mid-20th century.”
IPCC IPCC
1995 IPCC 2013
2001
68
the .,, l, *, of a theory is its
ability to #( ,l, l.,.( ...
as anticipated, Smoking
caused over qmm:mmm
deaths last year in the
United States.
...and Some of the best evidence about , l

comes from *. **.l#( ,!* from decades past.
“The consequences...
are likely to become
noticeable by the end of “[By 2010] we may
[the 2oth] century.” experience global
temperatures warmer than
any in the last 1000 years.”
1975
since the 1970s temperatures have increased

about 0.15 !l(0.3 F)lper decade.
o
we predicted
m.o !l(0.4 F).
o
our ) l
not bad! )) was
+''...
jm.s !
...but our
PREDICTIONS
were '+%
jm.q !
jm.o !
Temperatures relative
to 20th century average.
Source: National Climatic
Data Center, http://www. nvtm nvum nvvm ommm omnm
ncdc.noaa.gov/cag
69
and climate scientists haven’t just been
(,l!.,l, ll# ,.( ...
...they’ve also been (,l!.,l!,*l!l, l ,*%l
More warming More warming **l (6l

on
than in (l, l#! *l escaping into
the )< than (l, l *# <
&.,!(<
Yup. Yup. Yup.
Those details are like (#(,* at a 'l)%
This has got

+' " l
l1'
written all over it.
70
like we said, climate science is like
, ,0 l2!(...
It wasn’t me,
whoever did this must have it was $-l
had the *:lthe !,0 :l /+ '%
and the !##!(,.,6.
...and nmml6 (* of * , l , ,0 l2!(...
...has convinced the vast majority of scientists

that .l ,0,6l*l, l!,l .* l!l!l2(%
We’re
!0 %
We’re
!,%
aaas
asa
acs NIPCC
IPCC
ams
National Academies of Scien

ces
" = intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; ) = American Association for the Advancement of Science; )l= American Meteorological Society;
* = American Chemical Society; * = American Statistical Association; ,!l *lincludes the National academies of the u.s., brazil, canada, china, france, germany, india, italy, japan,
russia, the u.k., australia, belgium, the caribbean, indonesia, ireland, malasia, new zealand, and sweden; " = Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change
71
Of course, it’s always possible that
all those scientists are 2(!%
whoops, !l ...and the

2( is actually ...and so is killer really was
caused by (! !... l.l (... &. l0 ,!(9
But so far !!6 has been able

to identify a !!l !# ,l, !(6 for global warming...
/+l
Is it l!< 5)<
*.*#!,*< (! !<
Nope. Nope. Nope. wha?
...and the case for +' " l+l

has gotten *,(! (ll*,(! (%
it’s all !l

,! , (%
(6
!
,
*,,*,
6 l
**
( =2
0 ! (

l !( * !#., (l
*. * ! *
72 #( , *.l
!*
most global warming data is painstakingly gathered
2,l 6l &.# ,...
like ...! ll

*, , *... ...and l !( l
llllll.!6*... (*%
...but it’s possible to find evidence l' -

l-).
snow is
,l flowers are
''% !!l
( (%
birds are
(,l
( (%
5 - might even find this sort of # !! l 0 in

5 -'l 1l5'
%ll
A "
l5+', some '
) have
and it’s only #(lnm9 a natural instinct ...and some .*
to '+... have a natural instinct
to "l' '
)%
73
these days, everything we know about climate change is incorporated into
, l! * run by *.# ( !#., (*.
these models do a pretty good job of

simulating everything from the l *...
...to 0! l (.#,!*...
*!(,=, (l
!! for a
few years, but
check out !l!=, (l
chapter 3. # ,%
...and they give us the best indication of what to expectll, l *l %
74
l#(,l
l,2!
predictions
l #, (lt
global warming
is it just me...
...or is it getting
+ in here?!
Now that we’ve covered the
* l* l!l , l ...
...let’s take a look at

2,l,l## %
of course, lots of things -

happen
in this century and beyond.
We could
develop !l
.*!...
...or 6l
2*...
...or (!= ,l Actually, that one

,( *... -
E+l""[
it’s " ))%l
...or # (# ,.l
!,!l *9
78
one 0 (6l.5 possibility is that
human carbon emissions will stop
l+-'5%
that’s it,
#(,6E*l
!0 (%
shut 0 (6,
down (,l!2%
a -l 'l5 possibility is that

/ "l !.,( * like china
and india will follow the path blazed by
/ "
l !.,( *llike the u.s.
!**l. * to power
*, ,!( *, and
!,!(l0 *...
...and
')++
to clear land for farms,
roads, and buildings.
we call this path .* **l*l-*..

What if we E,l
!l. to reduce
carbon emissions? That would be
-)))l)l
-)-.
79
The key fact about .* **l*l.*.
lis that it would make CO2 emissions
3"
%
To see why, note that we can neatly divide the world’s 7 billion people into
rl .*l, l*8 l!l%l
they each need
1.4 !l
napkins.
India Rest of Rich Everyone

China Asia World Else
The rich world makes

up .*,l! lof those
“Five Chinas”... ...but at the start of the 21st century
rich world economies were responsible for about
l!l, l2!(E*l!**l. l !*.#,!%l
ONE CAKE
for 6!.. you all can
*( l, l
)
l%
80
under .* **l*l.*....
Thanks to (#l
!! l(!2,...
...we can
now afford
!( l 9
...the other four chinas could , l.# by onmm.
that’s ,( l plus, population growth

could l!, (lol*l
!( l *% ,!l, l# ,.
that’s another
,2!l *%
Africa
More
Asia
that means that over the course of the century we’d

l ( * l!.(l!**l. l !*.#,!l6lormb.
that’s like going
from ol *
a year... ... to t%
81
900
sure enough,
under Business as usual,
emissions could rise ormb
during this century...
800
700
600
nvmm nvrm ommm omrm onmm

!.,lqll+ )l!l !o nmll+ )l!l !o pmll+ )l!l !o trll+ )l!l !o nmrll+ )l!l !o
J!.,l1ll,!*l!l (!K J3ll,!*l!l (!K J8 l,!*l!l (!K J20 l,!*l!l (!K Joull,!*l!l (!K
500
Source: IPCC AR5 Figures TS.19 (above) and 5.3 (below) ...pushing atmospheric CO2
concentrations up near nmmmlppm%
400
300
200
CO2 concentrations
haven’t been that
high forl *
l!l5')% 100
600,000 ya 400,000 ya 200,000 ya Now

82
as a result, the !l ... we don’t
do much to reduce
0 ( l, # (,.( l emissions...
between 2000 and 2100...
...will likely be about q (7 f).l! !
that estimate could

be A BIT ... ...or more than a bit !2...
We’ll come back to
maybe it’ll be . (,,6 in
only p !% maybe as much Chapter 11.
as r ! or s! %
%
...but it makes a good *,(,l#!,l

for understanding the changes that are coming.
it’s .*,l
llll. (... ...what exactly
does it <
83
for some people, a global
increase of q ! sounds like
ll
...
I’ll just "5ll,l!(
for air conditioning in the
summer...
...and l,l)) for
heating in the winter.
Why all the
.**<
...while to others it sounds like l:ll

%
in most places on earth,

the /'l*. (l
lonmm...
...will be !,, (l,l
, l ++)+l*. (l
!l, lom,l ,.(69
but neither of these is the *,l26l,!l,l!.,l,%
let’s put those

numbers in
# (*# ,0 %
84
The *, way to think about q ! is like
ll, l,, l!ll. l!!.
and be careful about
q C
.ll!!l
6l,*l !0 (%
Fowl Weather
Warm Turkey
Chicken Little
Cold Turkey
Goose Egg
1000 ppm
ide to
600 ppm
350 ppm
A User’s Gu
RCP 6.0
RCP 8.5
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
uences ofal
the Conseq
s as Usu
BUsines
5 oC
w & 2100
6 oC
Between No
Similar Titles in Climate Science
inside the book are descriptions of

+)l l
'+l)...
...inl +)l l
'+l")%l
tell me about
)l/l')l One chapter
l)% a night and
we’ll be done by
q
the time youl!l
,!l ! %
C
85
for example, A GLOBAL increase
of q! (7 f) would likely
!
warm
) by only p! (5 f)...
!
...
l( * by more, around r ! (9 f) ...
!
ouch ouch ouch ouch.
...and the '+ by a whopping u! (15 f).!
**l lmeans
!( l*!(#,! it’s the
of solar energy. = !l
,9
and that’s just thel,#l!l, l (%
Welcome to the
Titanic 2.0
rgs here.”
“Well, there used to be icebe
86
the fact is, a global Auf Wiedersehen
increase of q! (7 f)
would +') ' THE
+'l1 '
...
!
(!*,,
Salaam from the '+l'
of
Hallo
,*,(!
“Well, there used to be farmland here.” o
es t
it cde
om :
m
Whe
n
i t u
Lat
*! 6l, l ( knows... r qm is the

new
...you get more !( *,l( *l

when it’s !,ll(6% Monsoons just got...
The World’s now even

Deserts ( &
( (9
Swim the the new ( .,.(l

(,%
...because when
hurry, Offer *l*!!9 the climate changes,l
0 (6,l *%
87
we’re going to spend the next two chapters
learning about some of these changes in ( , (l ,%
we’ll start with the

changes that have
to do with 2, (.
Critics
Rave
qC
about
“A Hot Topic...”
“Steamy
and Stormy.”
“A Wild Ride!”
“Insane!”
88
l #, (lu
water
Water covers !*, of
the earth’s surface...
...and the 2, (l 6 ...
water continuously 0#!(, *l

into the atmosphere...
...where it lingers as clouds and water vapor

before #( #,, as rain and snow.
some water accumulates

on land as *!2 and
and in *...
...and some seeps

. ((!....
...but !*, returns

to , l! *%
97% of the earth’s
water is stored in
the oceans.
...is as crucial to l!l (,las the carbon cycle.

You ( what
youl(9
Mostly Water Mostly Water Mostly Water

and Carbon and Carbon and Carbon
90
1, ( and , are
also closely related. .l(land
! l .(( ,*
move heat from
the equator toward Like a !! and
the poles. , system!
So it’s not surprising that many of the

!*,l#!(,,l# ,*l!l , l ...
sea level
rise
floods and
droughts
ocean
acidification
...are related to thel,( l!(*l!l2, (%
&. *! *
ll 2, (l
2, ( *!2 0#!(
91
We begin with the ! *: which are
2(l.#ljust like the rest of the planet.
&.
2, (
over 90% of the extra
energy trapped by
greenhouse gases *l
.#ll, l! *%
As water heats up, it 4#*...
like ( .(6 in
a , (! , (...
...or !,l(l
in al!!%
...and the result is (*l* l 0 *%
+'l3")
accounted for about
of the 7 inches of sea level
rise we saw during the 20th
century.
the other half was
from ,l
(*ll
l* ,*%
92
sea level rise is likely
to (, in the years ahead,
posing risks to ( .,.( ...
instead of worrying
about 2 *...
...i’m worried about
* 2 *%
...to !2=6l , *...
...and even to ,( l !.,( *%l
Welcome to the
“Well, there used to be islands here.”
all told, .* **l*l.*. will likely lead to about

ol ,l!l* l 0 l(* l,*l ,.(6%
but it could be
,2!l!(l,( l ...depending on
, *las much... what happens toll

l) 1%
93
The l)+) of '
and +'+
are crucial to sea level rise this century.
ll If they melt

*!2 $-5, it could be
as much aslsl ,%l
If they melt ) 15,
sea level rise will be
about ol ,%
in contrast, ,l ll, l( , ldoes !, raise sea levels

because it’s !,...
when floating you can watch

ice melts... it happen in your
(%
...the 2, (l
0 l! *E,l
%
...but it does mean l *l

ll, l( , l 0(! ,.
Welcome Back to the
“An emerging Epicenter of Indust ry and Trade

akin to the Me dit err ane an Sea.”
94
global warming also means a
*,l(!l*!2l,!l(...
these 1+'l
5")l
sure are weird!
maybe we should
try 2, (l*
instead.
...and ( (l , of

the snow that does fall.
of course, ) 1l)E+l-)+l 'l)...
It’s also a
,.(l( * (0!(
that STOREs WATER from ...and releases it in
the 2, (... the )-'%
...so lack of snow could mean big trouble for

l( (*:l *:ll.*,(6.
especially when
combined with *
ll(...
...which is our
next topic.
95
We learned in Chapter 5 that water vapor in the atmosphere
works as a ' -)l) to 1'l+l"+%l
2, (l ENERGY IN? ENERGY OUT?

0#!( l'+l 5!.l*

% !,l#**9
om
om
but it turns out that as the planet warms,

the atmosphere holdsl!( l2, (l0#!(%
,land
The .*.*=# 6(!l .,6 go
'+ )"... hand in hand.
...says that each
additional n ml
means tblmore
water vapor.
and that creates yet another #!*,0 l l!!#.
more humidity
!,ll. *l,l
!,, (...
turns intol 0 l!( l
!,ll.%
more heat
makes it !( l
....
96
Global warming *!l in general,
* big changes in (6 will get
( (...
#( #,,!% ...and 2 , will
get 2 ,, (%
As the planet warms, there will be

!( l 0#!(,!l(!l, l*.( ...
i’m *2 ,6% ...which means many (6 places will get ( (%
i’m ,(*,6%
but the extra moisture in the atmosphere

2l*!l .* l!( l, * l(*,!(*...
...so many 2 , places will get 2 ,, (%

The water cycle is
going (869
An additional 4m
means about oub
more water vapor
in the atmosphere.
97
!. * Finally, we return
to , l! *%
&.
2, ( They’re not just
2(l.#land
3"
...
...they’re also
getting !( l
%
l
+ happens when
COo from the atmosphere
)) /)ll! l2, (...
recall from page 47 and recall

this from
that over orb of our *,(6l
COo emissions end **9 oj
o ll=
up !2l, ( % ll
o p ll
=ll j *!2l!9
j
p=
...increasing the concentration of 5

' l ) in the water.
more hydrogen
ions ( j)...
...means !( l
%
Bleach Sea Water Coca-Cola

pH = 12.6 pH = 8 pH = 2.52
98
increased acidity erodes
!(l( *...
extra hydrogen ions break

down the reef *, (l
,l, l !(l l
.l,l.#%
...and **!0 *lthel* ,!*landl* * of

sea creatures, both ...
6. %
!. l
6. %
...and *%
! !,!#!( *
#, (!#!*
!( (
99
even though you’ve ,!(,*9
#(!6l 0 (ll !(9 ###,,,9
ll (l!l, ...
...Those tiny sea creatures form the * l!l, l( l!!l %
as a result, ocean
acidification threatens
just about 0 (6,
in the sea...
...and 0 (6! connected to it.
.=!%
it’s no wonder ! l ,!land !l2(

are sometimes called 0l,2*.
Let’s put Coca-Cola in the

bucket and 2, l, l
* *l**!0 %l We’re !. l
,(!. 9
100
l #, (lv
Life on earth
When circumstances change, sorry, nol
living things #,... * l ,
today. in that case,
give me 50
pounds of the
*!2l!!* %
* 9
...and species 0!0 ...
Go back nmm:mmml
'+ ) and your
ancestors were just regular
old ' 1l')%l
...and if they don’t succeed ,E*l .(,*%
what use are big webbed feet That’s why you

and transparent fur if need to l+ l
there’s l 'l<l ) and "5l
+++ 9
102
Many of the l
boy is ,, an
( .*, * in the world . (*,, ,9
today arel .* l6l.*...
,,l
!**
....and climate change is going

to add an 4,(l %l
0*0 l
)# *
"!.,!
"!#.,!l
( *
0 (*
103
Climate change is likely to
be a big problem for species
that 0!0 l*!26... we take
0 (6,
slowly.
...and scientists estimate that qm=tmb of all the species on earth

may go 4, , over the next 100 years.
Invasivus geurrillavinus
Armored slowpoker
Annoying nevergoextinctus Wartius allergictofungi

Scavengus canliveanywhereus Acreus needsus
Albino nonvegetarianix Giganticus pickyeater

Omnivorous gourmand
Rex thumperhumper Gracious vulnerabilus
Execrable philofeceus Humanus engineerdus
Spectacularus useless
104
A changing world may be
less of a problem for species
that 0!0 l&. 6...
we breed like
(,*9
...or can #,l&. 6...
Rattus norvegicus
Hey!
Pueraria lobata Columba livia

Homo sapiens
...or might , from the new reality.
certain plants
do ++' with
more CO2... ...as long as
it doesn’t get
,!!l!,%
105
as for how climate change will affect .*...
finally,
something
I canl ( l
!.,%
c’mon dad, let’s

go back to the
*9
...it’s a bit (l,!l*6

because we’re so good at
#,%
What ifl! l
,! destroys
marine ecosystems?
we’ll just eat

( l*9
but what would

you the
farmed fish?
!(9l
but how are you

going to (!2l , l
l,,l !(<
! ,!9l
but then the fish will

taste less like fish and
more like !(%
don’t worry,
my ,*, l
.*lwilll
#,%
106
this is a threat
of course
"++ to my $-+5l
won’t necessarily be l!
ll *6l!(l6! %
this is a threat to
my ,.l %
but it will definitely be * (l!(l, l2 ,6...
Homo sapiens opulentus
...thanl!(l, l#!!(.
Homo sapiens penuriosus
107
you can see the #l ,2 l( ll#!!(l
when you look at )l/l')...
oh, no!
oh, no!
my *. (l
! 9 my (9
... ,l20 *...
at least we’ve gotl

N and
l at least it won’t
''+)9 be so
in
thel2, (%l
... 4,( l2 , (...
flash
Floods?
Dust Our TIN ROOF
storms? doubles as a
++ l
This 4x4
/%
*l,l
%
108
... (l!!l#( *...
$10 for a !,!l $10 for a l

(##. !< !l( <
Guess I won’t buy Guess I won’t
another until buy another
,!!((!2. until 4,l
!,%
...and * * l!.,( *%
and the impact on the poor is especially unfair since they

0 E,l !,(., l. l,!l, l#(! %l
my carbon
!!,#(,
is more like a
,! #(,%
109
fortunately, !! l(!2, will likely mean
'l'l" " and 1'l" 'l" " in the decades ahead.
remember the
""5l)+ '5l
we told on yeah, tell it
page 4? to us 9
But even those who + from economic growth will facell)...
I miss all that I missl

)% whaddya mean
!0 (*,6% l E,l+l
6<
...and there’s a chance that even the rich will be /'1

%
Especially
towards the
l!l, l
,.(6l
and beyond.
110
l #, (lnm
beyond 2100
The world will

continue 6!l
onmm, you know.
At least we
!# l*!9l
so far we’ve focused on the impacts of
climate change l,*l ,.(6%
i don’t
this book!
to
s Guide s of
A UseCr’onsequensceUsual
the iness a w & 2100
U s
B tween o N
Be
in other words,
We’ve focused on how
climate change will affect .*...
...and our ( and
( ( .
but now we’re going to look at what might

happen in the 4,(l!l, (%
like to !.( great,

great, great, great
grandchildren.
112
unfortunately, even if we went !l,.( 6l
and stopped emitting greenhouse gases ,!6...
*,!#9
party’s
over. *,!#
...human-induced climate change would !,. l 6!lonmm.
I said F),!#:G
by zorg!
in fact, sea levels (and maybe also temperatures) would

!,. l,!l(* l!(l.( *l!l6 (*%
the rise would just

bel) 1 (lthan if
we KEEP POLLUTING. but
26<
113
One reason climate impacts !l!ll!
is that COol is a !=0 l*%
Long live COo!

well, that’s
not really 2,l
!o 2 l ,%
!o
!o
!o
About of the COo

we’re emitting now will *,l l
2(l, l# ,llnmml6 (*...
nyaa nyaa!
most of the rest will
havel**!0 ll
, l! *... ...making them
!
!( l %
o
o
!
...and about l!l,,l

!., will still be at it in
l,!.*l6 (*%l
as far as humans
are concerned,
that’s pretty much
'/'% Like
!o ++, )...
...Or -'l
1)+%l
114
Another reason
is that , l (,E*l
, l*6*, l*l
*.*%
This means that the planet doesn’t respond

*,, !.*6 to changes in energy balance.
ouch!
instead it responds (.6...

dude!
!. 9
...which in this case can mean .( * if notl,!.**l!l6 (*%
!. 9
115
One especially *.* part of
the earth’s climate system is
* l 0 l(* % ok class, today
we’re going to watch
l ,%
Zzzzzzz
We saw in Chapter 8 that

seas are likely to rise about
ol+l5lonmm.
but seas will continue to rise for

* 0 (l ,.( *l 6!l,,...
!2l+

in 2200...
...might equal
l+

in 2100.
...partly because of continuing
, (l 4#*!...
we learned about
that on page 92.
...and partly because

once glaciers *,(,lto melt,
it’s hard to tell when they’ll *,!#.
116
sea level rise is especially problematic because
so many people live (l, l !*,%
Real estate is all

about ! ,!:l
! ,!:l
! ,!%
Ocean
View
Sea
Side
Water
Logged
if the entire ( l l* ,lmelts,

the seas will rise by about oml ,%l
Goodbye, Goodbye,
2l *%
!( *%
if the 1 *,l,( , l l) ,lmelts,

they’d rise !, (loml ,%l
Goodbye,
!(% Goodbye,
!,%
but remember, melting mile-thick ice sheets would take

5l-
'
)l!l6 (*...
117
...and 2!l!2* what the world
the world will look like in population could
.( *l!l6 (*< be ol!...
...or psl!%
we could discoverl we could have

, ! l ...or return -
'1+'l ...or wind upl
( *... to thel ,*... *2l2,
lll*,! l . l, l* *%
To see how hard it is to look 6!lonmm, imagine someone in nvmm...
Howdy,
*,( (9
...trying to anticipate ,!6E*l2!(.
,!, *<l *, , =. l

+( ,!(*<l
!#., (*<l What kind of
!* * are
you ,<
118
indeed, when the swedish chemist
(( .* first studied climate
change nmml6 (*l!...
...he thought the results would be !!%
“the ( *l
# ( , of H !oIl
lllin the atmosphere... ...will bring
forth much more
.,l (!#*l
than at present.”
of course, he lived in *2 %
brrrr.
all of this just shows

how ,!. it is to l#( ,!*...
...especially about
the .,.( 9
in 100 years we’ll all be
,, (l!lbecause of
!! l(!2,... ...unless we’re
2!(* l! because
of 0(! ,l
(,!%
119
In sum, although the
(l,( ,!(6
for the earth’s climate I’M JUST GETTiNG
is pretty clear... 2( l.#%
...the !l, l*# associated

with global warming...
The choices 5 -l

will have consequences for
your ( ,:l( ,:l( ,l
( ( %
...is one of the +1 l 'l))-) that add -'++5

to the problem of climate change.
What’s the
!, ( major
issue?
- (,,6%
120
l #, (lnn
uncertainty
well, if you want

to be (,...
...we’ll just have to
2,ll* %
In this chapter we’re going to take
a break from 6l!., ! *... ...and think for a bit about
. 6l!., ! *%
today was the

usual :l The l +l
:l% '
and
-'
l
1l
, l.9
congratulations! congratulations!
i just got
in a (l
(... ...with
an l
*# (,%
122
When it comes to climate,
. 6l!., ! * are, well,
. 6.
could all of
greenland melt
l6l , < that would be
4 #,!6l
. 6%
but no matter how you *.( l, l!*...

.... 6ldoesn’t
These odds
mean #!** %
These odds
are less than are less than
nllp% nllnmm% These odds are less than
These odds nllnmm:mmm:mmm%
are less than
nllnm% dude,
l2!l, l
++'59
/'5l 4 #,!6l 3+'l l

-5 '
. 6 . 6 )-"'l-"6
.
We can see this by looking at

#*,l#( ,!* made by climate scientists.
hey, nobody’s
# ( ,%
123
while Many scientific predictions
about climate change have
,l, l,( ,...
we thought we thought * *
, # (,.( * would would rise this
rise this much... ...l, 6l% much... ...l, 6l%
...others
havel** ...
...both for ,, (...
we thought
, would
rise this much...
...but it rose
**%
...and for 2!(* %
we thought
( , l* l l
would melt...
...but not
,*l*,%
124
in other words, some
scenarios scientists thought
were . 6...
... ,.6l l,!l#**%

357
is /'5l
-5%
News flash:
xyz .*,l
## 9
xyz
maddening though it is, this sort of

uncertainty is .0! .
tough
luck.
125
some of the . (,,6 stems from all the
SCREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
#!*,0 l l!!#* in the climate system.
like the Hey dummy,

2, (l0#!(l ...and the
effect... = ! don’t put the
effect. ' "
in front of the
)"'9
And to make things even more difficult, there are also

,0 l l!!#*.
higher temperatures
mean more
(6l!.,... Instead of
"5l
)...
...negative
feedback loops
&. ,l, l
more energy out !2%
means !2 (l
, # (,.( *...
-) <
look up

in
the glossary.
126
the truth is, the earth’s climate system is
4,( 6l !# , ...
I think that’s
/'5+%
wait, there’s
!( 9
...so no matter how much , we build into our !#., (l! *...
ocean cloud
circulation extent
solar
variation
cloud
height
cloud
carbon particle size
cycle
melting
permafrost
...we will 0 ( be able to predict the future with

*!., l (,,6%
we’re #(!6
looking at q!l
this century...
...but maybe it’ll
be only p !...
...and maybe as
much as r ! or s ! %
127
and that leaves us with
a !.(.%
If REALITY turns out to be ++'

than we’d thought...
Climate sensitivity
is 1... whew, we

ll-+
...Ecosystems are back there.
')+...
...people find ways
to
"+%
...then business as usual might

!,ll) l
%
thanks to rapid
economic growth,
we all get !( l ... there’s not too
... much extra suffering from
climate change.
128
But if REALITY turns out to be 1 ')
than we’d thought...
Climate sensitivity ...ice sheets

is ... *, (, ... ...the amazon
.(*l.#... ...bread baskets
become .*,l
!2*%
...then business
as usual could be
+)+' "%
instead of
!( l ...
...all we got
was ,( 6%
129
all this talk about
#!, ,l ,*,(!# *...
...should make you think
about *.( %
i’m
* ( .
what talk to my
can i !< sister...
...she’s a broker
at ,%
for example, while it’s

. 6 that you’ll get into
a !(( l ,...
...or become ,6l...
especially with
an % 9
it’s another case of
*,! *, l4 ,6l
*!( (%
...it’s a good idea to .6l*.( :ljust in case.
insurance gives you

a way tol#6ll,l
!( l!2... ...to avoidl,!,l
**, (ll, l turns
.,.( . into l,l
**l%
130
similarly, although it’s . 6 that
, l# ,*lwill be ,*,(!# ...
this reminds
me of 0 .*%
i thought men
were from
(*%
...it’s a good idea to buy insurance, .*,ll * %
i like * l
,!. but we don’t want
our * to 0 l
,(!.l,%
now, you can buy

insurance for
l*l!l
,*... i’ve got insurance...
...# ,linsurance...
...! linsurance...
...!! insurance...
...even l
. ,!l
insurance.
...but how do you buy insurance for the 2! l# ,<
131
it turns out that our
*,l*.( l#! 6...
...is to ( . l **!* of coo

and other greenhouse gases.
the more we
reduce !2...
...the less likely
we’ll ,l
,*,(!# %
and we’ll learn more about that in the 4,l#(,l!l,*l!!%
if we give up a small
# l!l ...
...we can get
# l!l%
132
l#(,l
l,(
actions
l #, (lno
the tragedy of the commons
)! !6E* got to

do *! ,...
...Right?
Fossil fuels are a 6l( ,
in modern economies...
0 (6!
uses them. You. me.
her. l!l
him.
.*%
China India Rich

Rest of World Everyone
Asia Else
...so it’sl!,l!l,!l l *6 to *!2l!2l

the growth in fossil fuel consumption.
we want to
.* l, l
,!!9
duh!
136
nevertheless, When you compare
the ,*lof ( . l ol
**!*...
...with the !*,*...
a More
*, l
, % Higher
prices for ...and ! and
*! ... ,.(l*...
Lower risk of ...and, therefore,
a , l ,( ,6.
,*,(!# %
Less * l
0 l
(* %
economic economic
growth in losses
( 2 l in !l
(6% *%
fewer
Opportunities 4, ,!*%
to ( . l
4*,l
,4 *.
...most people conclude that it )l

l))lto try.
we need some
*.( 9
duh!
137
But just because taking action
*l!!l* * ... ...doesn’t mean it willl ,.6l## %
I’m trying to
*,!#l*!...
...but
I just E,9
That’s a problem for 0.*:l

but it’s an even bigger problem for (!.#*...
We’re trying to
( . l o... ...but
we just E,9
...because of the +( 6l!l, l!!*%l
0.l ...can lead to

* =, ( *,... bad outcomes
!(l, l(!.#l
*ll2! %
138
The idea behind the Tragedy of the Commons
goes back at least as far as (*,!, ...
“that which is
!!l,!l
, l( , *,l ...has the *,l (
. (... bestowed upon it.”
...and, for all we know, he was inspired by !l#!!#%
?b@c9
Self-interest leads people to

pick up after theirl!2l!
in their !2l 6(... ...but lots of people don’t pick up
after their dog in #. l# *%
“Everyone
thinks chiefly of ...hardly at all
, (l!2... of the !!l
, ( *,.”
139
The Tragedy of the Commons is
the (!!,l .* of environmental
problems like ,, (... hey, how about using your
#*, llto pick up
your
l" "<
...and !0 (*...
...and (l#!.,!...
-cough-
-cough-
...andl , l .
it’s !l(l
#!.,!%
140
You can see the Tragedy of the Commons in
your own # (*!l *!*...
sure I’ll (, l

(!l **!*l
llif I fly to Hawaii... ...but I ( 6l
2,l,!l!l,!l
29ll
...and in decisions made by ,( l !.,( *

when they fail to sign climate agreements...
american
) *l (9
...or fail to live up to agreements they ( 6l* ...
canadian
6#! (, 9
...or fail to do much beyond l 0 (6! l * %
141
fortunately, There are
,2!l# * of !!l 2*%l
One is that * =, ( *,l*l!,ll%
“it is not from the

0! of the butcher,
the brewer, or the baker that
we expect our dinner...
...but from , (l
( (l,!l, (l
lll!2l, ( *,.”
For example, some countries

have *,(!l ,0 *
forl#,,!...
if we don’t adapt,
we’ll bel!! ...
...so let’s .l
l* 29
...And sometimes )=+' )+lhappens to coincide with )) )l( . ,!*%
We want to
clean upl! l ...and
#!.,!... improve (6l
* .(,6... ...and -'l
**l ))l-)
will help us.
142
The other piece of We
good news is that the don’t 0
Tragedy of the Commons is to fight.
!,l 0, %
History shows thatl

, (,!l( ,*l
are in fact #!** ...
the !,( l

#(!,! !lhelped
protect the
ozone layer.
and countries have

also cooperated
on ( l,(
agreements... ...and *l
,( , *...
...and (*l
!,(!l
agreements.
...and in Chapter 14 we’ll see what a , l( , might look like.
How about a
global agreement Or a binding
on ' l "l
l+'
l
+3)< TREATY?
143
But to overcome the Tragedy of the Commons, Carbon scofflaws will
an agreement needs to have , ,... face , (,!l
* ,!*9
$500 Fine
...and perhaps even an ,l!l!( %
Sign this climate agreement

or we’ll imposel '
'l
( 8 9 +3l
-)++)lon
your country.
And if you
don’t understand
that, '
l+l
))'59
And the difficulty of ,,l 0 (6! l,!l( ...
!l(! !l(!
her fine should
be (l,l This burdens
9 MY COUNTRYl 'l
+l5 -')9
...leads some folks to hope for a ( l .( %
teflon ROBOT POOPER- genetically

shoes! SCOOPERS! engineered
" "))l
)9
144
l #, (lnp
techno-fix
No problem,
I can 4l,l
(,l.#9
DOI 10.5822/ 978-1-61091-570-0_1 3, © 2014 by Yoram Bauman
some ideas for Tackling
climate change sound like
ll* l ,!...
...like (,8l, l! *lwith (!...
that stimulates the we just need the

(!2,l!l#,!, plankton to
which *!(*l !o% andl*l,!l, l
!,,!%
...*#(6l*,2, (l,!l, l(...
that increases the we just need an

earth’s albedo by ( of 30,000
( ,l !.*. * =. l*#*%
...#.#l*..(l!4 linto the atmosphere...
sulfur particles
( ,l we just need some
!l 18-mile-long
*.,% ( l!* *.
*m
o
...or engineering , 6l! l (!= ,l,( *%l
Could you also

design them
to give me
( ,!*<
146
Some people think of these “Perhaps the * l
! ( ideas as *,l! ,!lto
a # **l .( =... the garden hose idea...
...is that it’s
,!!l*# and
,!!l #.G
...but that view

*E,l, ((6l( *, %
even if we could
get it 2!(...
...it won’t
stop l

+ %
and what about

., l
!* &. *<
There is, however, a . l!( l#(!* sort of , !=4%
What is it,
*# No, silly.
ll((!(*<l
It’s #:l
l
(6%
147
If we can develop l (6l
that’s # (l,l!**l. *...
energy from
fossil fuels
is #...
...but my
clean energy
is # (%
...then it will be in everyone’s * =, ( *,

to abandon coal, oil, and natural gas.
No ,( 6l!l
, l !!*%l
No #(! 9
148
and cheap, clean energy take that,l
would not only help .* **l*l
*,8 l, l , . .*.9
it would also #(!0 l0l*,(*

for billions of people...
#l (6 ...and clean up ! l(l#!.,!%

could bring us
( ( (,!...
...,(*#!(,,!...
l'5
...and access to could bring us
the , ( ,% l-l))%
sounds ( ,, right?
so...
...What is this Good
#:l l &. *,!9l
(6<
149
from a climate perspective,l (6l*l if it
! *E,l ( * l,!*# ( l ol ! ,(,!*%
fossil fuelsl#.*l.#l clean energy

, l l .(0 % sources !E,%
this includes
( 2 lenergy sources
likel*!(l#!2 (...
...6(!#!2 (...
...2l#!2 (...
... !, (l#!2 (...
...and ,l#!2 (%
150
it *! includes alternatives
like . (l#!2 (...
...and some !. *...
From a
, l Growing biofuels
perspective, )-)l !o...
i’m CLEAN.
...so burning them
can be ' l
-+'%l
...as well as proposals such as (!l #,.( ll*,!( .
if we burn fossil fuels

and pump the co2
. ((!....
...it 2!E,l
l.#ll, l
,!*# ( .
you can think of (6l 6 as a form of clean energy, too.
if we find ways to
( . l!.(l (6l
!*.#,!...
...We can generate
“ 2,,*.G
151
there are all sorts of *
facing these clean energy options...
The sun ! *E,l

26*l* % the wind ! *E,l
26*l!2%
...but the l lfacing all of them

can be summed up in ! l2!(.
152
it might like ))l-)l'l3")/.
`q a `num a
gallon! month!
but fossil fuels are still usually

the ")+l!#,! for .6 (*...
...and for * (*.
that’s why 2 l
#l.6l that’s why 2 l
, % #l* l
, %
in part that’s because of all the /)++) over the past century...
It cost me a lot
to BUILD THIS
l"+...
...but now that
it’s built 6l
!# (,l
!*,*l( l
1%l
...and because of ongoing !**l. l)-)

) estimated at `qmm per year.
153
In order to make CLEAN ENERGY !( l "++/...
...many people want the /' +ltol)-)

8 l'1)%
let’s .l let’s #6l

( * ( landl ! !2 (*l
0 !# ,% to put upl*!(l
# *%
let’s ( &.( l let’s provide a

.,, *lto ,4l ( ,lforl
use at leastlorbl 2l(*%
( 2 *%
154
many economists, however, emphasize that fossil fuels are
!,l ,.6l*l #l*l, 6l## (...
they’re
!,l # but they should
in my book. be 0 l!( l
!,l #!
...because their price doesn’t include the !*,*l!l#!.,!%l
the price you pay

! *E,l . l
, * l,*%
Ocean
Acidification
Global
Warming
Health
Impacts
and things certainly would l

'+...
...if we took steps to +'7

those 3+'l )+)%
You’re buying
the fossil fuels...
69 ...you should pay
Ocean the +'-l )+%
Acidification
Global
Warming Health
Impacts
155
that’s why most
economists ( ...
...that the best way to make clean energy

!( l !# ,,0 l2,l!**l. *...
...is to l!**l. *l!( l 4# *0 %

We need
to /l
+l"5l

%
156
economists like
this ( ,=* l
##(! ...
putting a #( l
!l (!...
...will encourage
businesses and
consumers to l
+'l/ '%l
...because it promises to both

( . l, l !*.#,!l!l(,6l. *lin the *!(,l(....
it's in our
* =, ( *,
to abandon you.
...and #(!!, l, l 0 !# ,l!l 2l, !! *lin the !l(.%
it's in your
* =, ( *,
to invest in clean
energy.
157
Of course, the idea of making fossil fuels more
expensive is +' /').
what, did you think
hold on, you want pollution just
to pay more for comes from l
of !# *<
fossil fuels? course!
In part that’s because

the +l+l+l
l l+l+-...
I can see
":ll
'5.
Just a
,, l,l
.(, (%
...is at the l!ll+-%
You keep ...but so far all

promising us you’ve done is
":ll l
'+5l
'5... '5l 'l
3")/%
SO we’re going to spend the next chapter providing some .,!.
we’ve got
solutions that
make sense in both ...AND thel
the *!(,l(.... !l(.%
158
l #, (lnq
putting a price on carbon
we can use
the #!2 (l!ll
lll"+)...
...and the
,!!*l!l
llllll !! *...
...to protect the
/( +%
tackling climate change we’ve got to
will probably require 2!(l,! , (
action by 0!, (*land to overcome the
ll!0 ( ,*% ,( 6l!l, l
!!*%
the two main policy options are

( ,l( .,!*...
Appliances .*,
New cars .*, meet new EFFICIENCY
average 40 MiLES STANDARDS.
A GALLON.
Power companies
.*, use 25% if you .*,
RENEWABLES. know...
...these policies are
also called !l
l !,(!.
...andl( ,=* l##(! *

like (!l,4 * and #ll,( l*6*, *%
the way these policies

( . l#!.,!...
...is by l
#!.,l
4# *0 %
160
One drawback of ( ,l( .,!*
lis that they can be pretty 06= .
You .*, use this kind

of ,l....
((9
...and this kind
of (...
...and this kind
of ,! ,...
In contrast, market-based approaches

offer more 4,6.
Well, at least
We’re not going to you’re !,l
!( you to do (!l
6,%l %l
We’re just going to

l#!.,l
4# *0 ...
...and let you
respondl*l6!.l
* l,%
they also promotel !* (0,!ll!0,!...
I’m not going

to buy that
. (...
...I’m going to buy this
*.# (= ,l
6(.
...and they do all this by

#.,,ll#( l!l (!%
Right now
emitting co2
is ( % This chapter is
about how to
!o change that.
161
The obvious way to A ,4<
put a price on carbon is with
Now you’ve
a (!l,4... !,l!.(l
,, ,!%
...like the one in (,*l!.%
i don’t like to (,

but we have the *,l
, l#! 6ll
, l2!(.
The B.C. carbon tax applies to “upstream” businesses

like !l( ( * and #!2 (l#,*...
The tax is ...or $0.03l# (l

`pml# (l,!l ...equal to about !1,,=!.(lof
of CO2... $0.30l# (l! coal-fired power%
of gasoline...
...but those companies mostlyl#**l, l,4l!l,!l !*. (*%
The tax gives -) an )!((6, but that’s

incentive to use ))l how market forces luckily, there are
))l-)... ...and now 6!. /'l15)
have an incentive, work. to ( . l, * l
,!!% .( *%
162
look at these
The carbon tax in B.C. is ) of extra
*# 6l 0 (lbecause dollars, eh?
the government uses the
,4l( 0 . ...
...to ( . l 4*,l,4 * on jobs, income, and investment.

')l+3)
on things we want ...allows us to
))l ... 1'l+3)lon
things we want
'l .
There are, of course, !, (l26*lto “recycle” the revenue from a carbon tax...
let’s invest ...or promote ...or Pay down ...or Give

in (|... (6l the
+... everyone
6... a
/

l
%
...but what they all have l is that the revenue can be put to
l-)%
Those good uses are

one of the )
l+)
of carbon taxes... ...in addition to
the main benefit of
potentially )/l
+l"+%
163
Another way to put a price on carbon is with
#ll,( .
Like the )) )l
+'
l)5)+l
in europe...
...or the !l

1(l)!.,!*l
, in california.
The way " +) talk about cap and trade can
make it sound like ...
We’re going to
#l)) )... ...And let people
MAKE MONEY FROM
+'% what’s !,l
,!l <
...a special kind of magic that has !,ll !!l2,l,4 *%
taxes are ...

...trading is
!!9
164
But )+)l!2lthat cap and trade and carbon taxes are
actually $-+l)'.
for Every
cap and trade
policy... ...there’s a
carbon tax policy
that’s '5l

+%
in fact, the easiest way to think about cap and trade is as an

!6l*# ll!l (!l,4%
you can think of it as

"l
l+3%
to understand the .,* of cap and trade, though,

a good place to start is with *%
165
To avoid overfishing, governments around the world
* ,l,*l!l* and then issue # (,*.
The sustainable harvest

level for this year is
nm:mmml,!*... ...so let’s print up
nm:mmml# (,*land
distribute them to
fishermen.
fishermen then have to turn in ! l# (,

for l,!l!l* they catch...
ONE )+El
"'+lper ,!...
...Otherwise we’ll
l6!.l,!l, l
*(*9
...and they can ,( l, l# (,*l2,l l!, (%
If my boat breaks, That’s what makes

I can * l6l market-based
# (,*% instruments
And if I find a terrific 3 9
new fishing spot, I can
.6l 4,(l# (,*%
166
Let’s
To see how this applies to climate change, trade o...
'"l)l2,l o% ...just for the
-+%l
With carbon cap and trade, governments

* ,l,*l!l !ol **!*
and issue # (,*.
Let’s cap emissions at

nmm:mmml,!*...
...and distribute
nmm:mmml# (,*l
,!l#!., %
companies then have to turn in ! l# (,

for l,!l!l o their products emit...
ONEl"'+l
per ,!...
...Otherwise we’ll take
a , lout of yourl
!,,!l %
...and they can ,( l, l# (,*l2,l l!, (%l
If I install solar
panels, I canl* l6l
4,(l# (,*.
And if I want to
expand my business,
I can .6l 4,(l
# (,*%
167
If you study
0(! ,l look, it’s a
!! *...

l-'/
for (!l
**!*!
...you can learn more about (!l,4 *...
if the TAX is ...then co2

`pml# (l,!l EMISSIONS would
ofl !o... be nmml!l
,!*l# (l6 (%ll
price
$40
$30
$20
$10
quantity
50m 100m 150m
...and how they compare with #ll,( l*6*, *%

price
$40
$30
$20
$10
you’ll get
a PERMIT PRICE of
`pml# (l,!... quantity
50m 100m 150m
...if you CAP co2

emissions at nmml
!l,!*l
# (l6 (.
168
but if all that gives you the *...
...just remember that (!l,4 * and #ll,( l*6*, *

are ( ,l * to the * l %
they’re both just about
!! l anything you can
*,(. ,*... do withl! ... ...you can do with
...thatl#.,l , l!, (%
l#( l!l
(!%
In particular,
a #ll,( l*6*, with
. ,! l# (,*... ...generates revenue for the government,
.*,l ll (!l,4%
and we can put

that revenue to ...for example
good use... by ( . l
4*,l,4 *%
169
it’s no surprise that
many )+) are
fond ofl l
)+'-+)... ...but
'+l'-+ )lalso have supporters.
“raising the price of fund clean

energy pass (6l
carbon is a **(6l 6
l*. ,l*, #l (|!
laws !2%
for tackling global get power
warming.” plants under
!,(!9
and while they might disagree aboutl#!, *landl#! 6...
who’s going to You’ve got to

vote for 'l But what about
+'-)+l'+l '+l
'-+ < who’s going to ')% -')<
vote to ')l
)l"')<
...they share a !!l!%l
we need to
develop a
!2= (!l
!!6%l
170
l #, (lnr
beyond fossil fuels
We need to get
6!l!**l
. *9
okay, there’s
!( *,,!,
and , ,
and )s, and...
Thell.l !,(.,!l
to climate change comes from the o
we emit by .(l!**l. *%
nyaa!
mo
but there arel!, (l.l ,0, *l

that l olto the atmosphere...
like
!( *,,!9
...and there are !, (l( !.* l* *lbesides o.
Molecule for molecule,

I produce oul+)l 'l
1'lthan CO2. yeah, well
I produce
oq:mmml+)l
'9
q
*s
172
So while CO2 from fossil fuels
is the "...
mo
...we also need to tackle the !=!**=. l*!.( *l

that we’ll learn about in this chapter.
Every LITTLE
BIT ")9 And sometimes we can get
MORE BANG FOR our BUCK by
going after the ,, l.6*%
173
mo
mo

!( *,,! increases
atmospheric CO2...
mo
...by *(.#, part of thel,.(l (!l 6 %
forests *. ll (!l

andl*,!( l,%
when we cut them down, that (! flows

into thel+ )"'%
174
Nowadays, deforestation mostly happens in
#!!(l !.,( *llike Brazil, Indonesia, and Nigeria...
...but they’re just following the path l!2l6l, l( l2!(l
in #( 0!.*l ,.( *%
fortunately, many middle- and high-income countries

are now #,l 2l!( *,*...
new trees can

*,!( l (!:l it’s the ( l
just like the old ( ,l2l
ones did. !l %
...and some rich countries are #6l#!!(l !.,( * to preserve their forests.
!(26
is paying
`nl!... %%%to reduce
deforestation in
! *%
175
q
, lJ qK is the main component of ,.(l*.
but it’s not just it also comes from

a !**l. . ...and ( l# *.
(l*... ...and * ...
when we -'l+, it adds CO2 to the atmosphere.
q j mo a o!
o!
j !o
mo
But when we release methane into the

atmosphere 1+ -+l-'l+...
...that’s 0 l2!(* %
molecule for
molecule, i ,(#l
!,*l!( l ,l
than co 2.
q
176
Methane is a ')lbecause higher
it can be part of a # )+/l temperatures

l "... ( * l
, lfrom
the (!8 l
( , ...
1( turns
into /l 'l
2(% more atmospheric
methane causes
!( l!l
2(...
...but it’s also an !##!(,.,6, especially around *%l
Let’s #
this landfill... ...and #,.(
the methane that
comes from it.
Capturing and burning METHANE is a !!l,...
It’s better to
-'l.,0 l
, ...
q
...than to

l,l,!l, l
,!*# ( %
...and it’sl!.6l!! if we can use that methane to (, l ,( ,6%
Instead of letting the

methane escape and
.(l !...
...we’re burning
the methane and
0l, l !l
l, l(!.9
177
MANY +'l)-)+) are also involved in climate change.
Some of them 1'l, l# ,%
)slis an industrial
gas used in ,( l
&.# ,...
...and molecule *s
for molecule
it’s oq:mmmltimes
!( l#!, ,l
,l o%
Some of them !!l, l# ,%
like the *..(l

' ) )lfrom
*mol volcanic eruptions.
hence the garden
hose idea on
page 146.
Some of them are ) '+l/

%
Some of them are !l/

%
Two years i’m going to haunt

and I’ml!.,, you !( 0 (%
( 9
l
!
( )s
178
these # ,,6l (* are
not as important as the l+'l...
that’s
, ...
... o from
!( *,,!...
...and o
from !**l
. *%l
...but we should still try to ,l, l. (l !,(!%
(9
one way to do that is worth discussing in !( l ,%
* ,* 179
You may have encountered !* ,* in the context
of your own personal ' l +"'+.
If i -5l )+)l

then somebody will
"+l+')...
...so that i can
5l' -
l+l
1 '
...
...and LIVE IN A
lll) ...
...-+='9
but offsets are also used in many "l

l+'
lSYSTEMS.
Instead of -5l
4,(l **!*l
"'+)lfor my ...I’m going to
factory... -5l )+)lso
somebody will "l

)...
...or REDUCE CO2
emissions in
orl%l
180
The THEORY behind offsets makes !!l* * ...
l'5l
1+ to go ...so I’d happily pay cutting emissions is
to 1... someone `rm to plant "' in a )l ...So offsets
enough ,( * to offset + '5lthan in 5l generate !( l
my CO2 emissions. + '5l,l! ... emissions reductions
per dollar.
...but thel
/l)ll+l
+)%l
and what if it gets
How do you know ( # l 4,l6 (l
those trees are How do you know with a (,6l ,!(6l
,.6l!l,!l and what if they that Chinese factory is * 2 ( <l
,l#, <l get #0 l!0 (l ( 6l!l,!l .,l
4,l6 (<l ,*l **!*<
and what about

* *<
Hey buddy, wanna

Hey buddy, wanna buy somel ,!(6l
buy somel ')+l !* ,*<
!* ,*<
181
in sum, while !* ,* and other
efforts to tackle non-fossil-fuel
emissions might help l,...
...we have to make sure they

!E,l*,( ,l.*l(!l!.(ll,*%
mo
we need to
( . l ol
from !**l
. *%
182
l #, (lns
the challenge
In this book we’ve studied
the * of climate change...
...and glimpsed the .,.( we’re likely to face

under .* **l*l.*....
q BUsin es s
Between Now &
C
A User’s Guide
the Conseqas Us
to
uences of
ual
2100
...and seen what we can do to create a ( ,l.,.( %l
We don’t have to
just )-'%l
We can
++ and

"+%l
184
for our conclusion, let’s step back
and look at the l# ,.( ...
...by thinking about

the similarities between
" ,l(,...
...and a !#!*,l #%l
A !#!*,l
#<
185
A properly maintained !#!*,l #lcontains
a host of (!=!(**% what do you call
a single-celled
organism 2!E*l
what do you call what do you call ( <
a single-celled a single-celled
organism ll# l organism ll .#l %
!l 0 *< !l(,<
(.** % . %
Those micro-organisms
( l!2l 0 *ll!!l2*, ...
here at
!# = l
,...
...it’s not just
!l! * that
get ( 6 %
...and turn ( into !%
eureka!
it’s (,8 (9
186
But as those yum!
i !0 rotten
micro-organisms ,... your jokesl tomatoes!
*,9
...and ( #(!. ...
hey, at least
i’m ( l
6* l.#%
...they also generate ,%l
#(,6l
!9
in fact, Without proper maintenance,

a compost pile will get
!,, (ll!,, (... it’s notl
lll( l!,...
...it’s ''
l
+9
...until the micro-organisms

literally l, * 0 *l!%
too bad we never

learned about the
,( 6l!l, l
!!*9
187
similarly, # ,l (,
contains a host of people what’s
,... your name?
#,,6%
...and ( #(!. ...
what’s
your name?
(6%
...and generating ,%l
what’s
your name?
#%
just like micro-organisms warming a compost pile,

we’re 2(l, l# ,%
In the case in the case of

of microbes, it’s humans, it’s
2*, l (6. emissions of
( !.* l
* *.
188
fortunately, . if we only had
the micro-organisms, (*9
we’ve got some
* ( ,l2 #!*%
We have smart scientists inventing 2l, !! *.

Carbon
Biofuels capture
Next-generation super-efficient
renewables vehicles
we have good #! 6l *lto guide our way.
carbon
pricing!
Carbon Cap
Tax and
Trade
and we have the ability tol!!l and make *(,l ! *l!.,l, l.,.( %
business as
usual only got
sual
! l*,(lin
our guidebook.
sU
ne ss a
Busi
Alternative
s
189
make no mistake, though:
our task is .,%l
having )'+l
1" )ldoesn’t
guarantee you’re
going to 1%
as with the micro-organisms, the amount of warming

caused by humans is related to #!#.,!...
the human
population is likely
to increase by overl
rmblthis century.
...and to ,0,6l 0 *%
That’s going to
be +''...
Economic growth
is going to bring ...but it will also
a lot of people mean a lot more
-+l l" /'+5%l (6l.* %
That’s why BUsiness as usual could

result in a +'"lof annual
CO2 emissions this century.
It will take
,( !.*l !(,l
just to keep annual
emissions steady.
190
And remember that CO2 stays in the
atmosphere for al!:l!l, ...
so even if we do
keep CO2 **!*
*, 6...
...,!*# ( l
! ,(,!*l
will still rise.
...and that the problem is

compounded by !( *,,!... ...and *...
...and that any solutions will have to

!0 ( ! l, l+( 6l!l, l !!*%
they weren’t
kidding: the taskl
)l
-+%l
but ., doesn’t mean #!** 9
ok, but what

can 2 ldo?
191
you can help by
'l
ll++'l-+-'...
i see a i see a
i see a *!.,!l
#( **. (!.
,!l , l
9
...and then figuring out whether

that ( could really ! l,(. ...
this was more fun

when we were just
( %
...and then working to l+l""%
Okay, it’s
'
5l+ l
l % Time to
l+l
1 '
9
192
As you know, lots of economists DREAM OF ' l"'...
If the rich world

adopts ( 0 . = ...":ll
.,(l (!l ...then the #!2 (l '5 to power
,4 *... !l #,* THE whole WORLD.
could bring us...
checkmate!
...but it’s okay if your dream is ( ,.
all-out mobilization government-funded clean

energy research
we need a 2(
on carbon
emissions. we need a
( ,(!.%
planning and adaptation low-carbon lifestyles
we need to
#( #( % we need to 0 l
*#6lso that others
canl*#6l0 %
193
You can *! help by looking at 6!.(l!2l ...
at ! . use !( =

think hard about ,llights
how much *# l and appliances.
you need.
use a *!(
water heater. make sure your
house is 2 =
*., %
(!.l,!2.
think hard about

reduce, reuse, how much *,.
recycle. you need to buy. eat !(
vegetables.
eat **l
meat.
!l, l(!%
don’t think hard

*# ... about how
much you
...and keep 6%
have !( l
your tires low-carbon
, % adventures.
Drive
**.
*,!#
194
...and by helping your community and your country
l*(,l *!*%
use your 0! %

excuse me,
( #( * ,,0 ...
join a !(.*%
Energy & Sierra

Enterprise Club Citizens
Initiative Climate
Lobby
invite others to !l6!.%
when you’re done ...or an

with this book, Give , l
it to a ( or a ! %
!(...
in ways big and small, 6!. can help write the next chapter.
195
That next chapter is being
written !2%
!!l. l
to us %
196
!**(6

#,,!l
Efforts to reduce the impact of climate change, such as
building seawalls or designing drought—resistant farming
practices; contrast with ,,!: 102, 105-10, 184
(l
Measured in terms of the percentages of different types
of molecules, the atmosphere is about 78% nitrogen (N2),
21% oxygen (O2), and 1% other, including about 0.04% carbon
dioxide (CO2), which equals 400 parts per million (ppm) CO2: 40
!l
The reflectivity of a substance; the Earth’s albedo is about 30%.
to remember its meaning, note that “albedo” (“whiteness”) has
the same latin root as “albino”: 56, 146
The = !l , is a positive feedback loop that
contributes to the comings and goings of ice ages: in the
glacial direction, accumulating ice and snow increases the
albedo of the earth’s surface, resulting in decreased solar
absorption that lowers temperatures and leads to more
accumulation of ice and snow; in the interglacial direction,
melting ice and snow reduces the albedo of the earth’s
surface, resulting in increased solar absorption that raises
temperatures and leads to more melting ice and snow: 35, 37, 126
,(!#!
caused by humans: 70-72
( , l
The region around the North Pole; most ( , l lis
floating, and so melting does not contribute to sea level rise
(unlike the mostly land-based ,( , l around the
South Pole): 86, 94, 124
(( .*:l*0, l
A Swedish chemist, svante arrhenius (1859–1927)
was one of the first scientists to study
atmospheric CO2: 62, 119
DOI 10.5822/ 978-1-61091-570-0, © 2014 by Yoram Bauman 197

l (!l
Airborne particles such as soot, most commonly
formed from burning plant matter or fossil fuels: 178
!( (l,4l.*, ,l
A tax that could be applied (at least in theory) to the carbon
“embodied” in imported goods; for example, if country A has a
carbon tax but country B doesn’t, country A could tax goods
imported from country B: 144
.* **l*l-*.l
A hypothetical future featuring minimal efforts
to reduce carbon emissions and strong economic
growth based on fossil fuels; for example, see the
IPCC scenario known as RCP 8.5: 79-82, 128-29, 189

#ll,(
See (!l#(
(!lJKl
One of the building blocks of life on Earth. Burning plants and
fossil fuels turns the carbon they contain into carbon dioxide
(CO2), which is a greenhouse gas. The (!l 6 ldescribes
how carbon circulates around the planet and includes not
only burning of plants and fossil fuels but also processes such
as photosynthesis; air-ocean gas exchange, which is related to
ocean acidification; the creation and weathering of rocks, etc.
Carbon cycle: 18, 42-43, 47
Carbon dioxide (CO2): 17, 21, 39-50, 114, 191
carbon sink: 46, 146
Carbon versus CO2: 44 (see also (!l0 (*.*l o)
(!l#( l
A government policy that seeks to reduce carbon emissions by
making polluting expensive: 143-44, 159-70, 189, 193
The simplest form of carbon pricing is a (!l,4 on the
carbon content of fossil fuels: 162-63
The other form of carbon pricing is #ll,( , a policy
that requires polluters to turn in one permit for each ton
of CO2 they emit; the number of permits is limited (raising or
lowering this “cap” makes the policy less or more strict) and
permits can be traded based on supply and demand: 164-67, 180-81
.,!(6l!, : A carbon price of (say)
$30 per ton of (! is very different from
a carbon price of $30 per ton of (!l
!4 l(see below) so it’s important to
clearly identify which of these is being
discussed. Prices are most commonly given
per ton of carbon dioxide, so an unclear
reference to “a tax of $30 per ton” probably
means $30 per ton of carbon dioxide.
198
(!l0 (*.*l ol
A common source of confusion. Carbon (C)
contains 6 protons and 6 neutrons, for an atomic mass of
12. The atomic mass of oxygen is 16, so carbon dioxide (CO2)
has a molecular mass of 44. Put these together to see that
x tons of CO2 contains only 12x/44 ≈ 0.27x tons of carbon.
Similarly, burning x tons of carbon creates 44x/12 ≈ 3.67x
tons of CO2. As a result, a carbon price of $x per ton of
carbon equals only $12x/44 ≈ $0.27x per ton of CO2.
!o (Carbon prices are usually stated per ton of CO2, and in
most cases the tons are metric tons, not short tons.)
(! (!.*l" (!
The time period from 360–300 million years ago: 23
, =.#l
The idea—also called !0 ( —that poor countries will
have faster economic growth than rich countries, causing their
economies to catch up: 4-6, 81, 110
*l
Previously used in aerosol containers and as refrigerants,
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) damage the ozone layer and are
being phased out: 21
qlJ , Kl
See ( !.* l*
l (6l
In the context of climate change, clean
energy is energy that doesn’t (or
doesn’t much) increase atmospheric CO2
concentrations; this includes renewable
energies such as hydropower, wind, and solar,
plus nuclear power, CCS (carbon capture and
storage), and energy efficiency: 150
, l
Average weather, typically over 30-year periods, including
average values and expected variability for daily high and low
temperatures, precipitation, etc.: 12
, l
A change in global average temperature and other changes in
the earth system, either as a result of natural processes or
(as with ,(!#! l , l ) as a result of
burning fossil fuels and other human activities: 12
, l! *
Computer models of the Earth’s climate system: 74
199

!( *,,!l
Cutting down trees for farming, urban development, or other
human activities: 10, 46, 172, 174-75, 191

0 !# N 0 !#l !.,( *l
The dividing line can be blurry (see , =.#), but the
developed world includes North America, Europe, Japan, and
other rich countries; together they account for one-fifth of
the world’s population. The developing world includes much of
Asia, Africa, and South America: 4-6, 79, 107-110, 175, 190

l!l
A weather pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects global
temperature and precipitation: 72
,(! , l(,!l
A form of energy that includes visible light,
longer-wavelength infrared radiation, and
shorter-wavelength ultraviolet radiation: 55-57
Infrared (ir): 55, 57, 187
Ultraviolet (UV): 20, 55
Visible: 55
(6lN (6l!.,l
The crucial determinants of energy balance for the planet. for
example, if Energy in is larger than Energy out then the planet
will warm up: 51-59
0!.,!l
The process by which mutation and natural selection
leads to the creation of new species: 24, 104-105
4, (l !*,l
Costs imposed on a third party, for example if person A sells
coal-fired electricity to person B but burning the coal harms
person C’s health or property: 155

l
A secondary effect that either amplifies or weakens some initial
change. A #!*,0 l l!!# amplifies the initial change,
so that warming turns into even more warming or cooling
turns into even more cooling. A ,0 l l!!#
weakens the initial change, so that warming turns into a
bit less warming and cooling turns into a bit less
cooling: 32-33, 35, 37, 96, 126, 177, 191
Ice-albedo feedback: 35, 37, 126
Water vapor feedback: 96, 126
(#(,*l
Telltale signs connecting human emissions
of greenhouse gases to climate change: 70-71
200
* ( *l
A common example of the +( 6l!l, l!!*
and of the use of cap and trade systems to address such
problems: 140, 143, 166
!**l. l
Coal, oil, or natural gas produced by natural processes over
millions of years: 10, 23, 46, 80-82, 136, 148-56
(
A new method of extracting fossil fuels,
short for “hydraulic fracturing”: 46

l# (!l
Scientific name for what is commonly called an l :
a period of time with extensive glaciers: 25-38
!l2(l
See , l
( !.* l*l
A gas that doesn’t interact much with relatively short wavelength
radiation (the ultraviolet and visible radiation incoming from
the Sun) but interacts strongly with relatively long wavelength
radiation (the infrared radiation outgoing from the Earth). The
principal greenhouse gases on Earth are water vapor, carbon
dioxide (CO2), and methane; less-important greenhouse gases
include nitrous oxide, SF6, and many others: 21, 58-62, 172-78
Methane (ch4): 58, 124, 172, 176-77
sulfur hexaflouride (sf6): 172, 178
Water vapor: 40, 58, 96

l *
A period of time with extensive glaciers, for example
from about 120,000 to 12,000 years ago; scientists
sometimes refer to these as l# (!*: 25-38
= !l ,
See
l !(
A vertical “rod” of ice, drilled from a glacier or ice sheet,
that can be used to study the history of the Earth’s climate by
examining the contents of different layers that correspond to
different times; for example, the analysis of air bubbles trapped
in the ice can be used to estimate CO2 concentrations, and the
prevalence of certain rare molecules (such as deuterium, a form
of H2O also called heavy water) can be used to estimate things like
temperature and the ratio of water to ice on the planet: 29
Temperature and CO2 data: 48-50
l* ,
A large glacier such as the Greenland Ice Sheet or the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet: 28, 94, 117
201
(( lJ'K
See ,(! , l(,!
*.(
A method of addressing low-probability risks (for example the
risk of getting in a car accident) by making regular payments
in exchange for coverage in case of disaster; spending
money now to reduce carbon emissions can be thought of
as an “insurance policy” against the risk of a climate change
disaster: 130-32, 137
, ( l# (!
A relatively warm period in between ice ages; the current
interglacial period, called the Holocene, started about 12,000
years ago: 29, 36-38
"
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international
body that has studied climate change since 1988; their Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5) came out in 2014: 68, 71, 123-24

l .(0
Measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentrations,
started by Charles David Keeling in 1958: 41-47

, lJqKl
See ( !.* l*
!0, l 6 *
Variations in the Earth’s orbit around the sun caused by
gravitational interactions with other planets; these variations
don’t significantly change the amount of solar radiation that
reaches the Earth over the course of a year, but they do affect
timing, i.e., how much radiation arrives at different times of
the year: 30-32, 50
milutin Milankovitch (1879-1958) was a serbian mathematician
who argued that these variations caused the ice ages. Our
simplified version of his theory focuses on the effects of
“strong seasons” and “weak seasons,” but his actual focus was
on summer in the Northern hemisphere (notably at 65 degrees
North latitude), with cold summers in the north leading to
glacial advance and warm summers in the north leading to
glacial retreat.
,,!
Efforts to reduce atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases; contrast with #,,!: 132, 184
!,( l"(!,! !
A global treaty signed in 1987 to protect the ozone layer by
phasing out ozone-depleting chemicals such as CFCs: 21, 143
202

,0 l l!!#
See
l ,!

An increase in the concentration of hydrogen ions in the
oceans, sometimes called global warming’s equally evil twin:
46-47, 98-100, 106, 147, 155
* ,*
The idea that an individual, company, or country can pay for
carbon reductions elsewhere (for example, by planting trees)
instead of reducing their own emissions: 179-82
8! lJ pK
A molecule consisting of three oxygen atoms; ozone exists
both at ground level, where it is a pollutant related to smog,
and high up in the atmosphere, where it forms the !8! l
6 ( that blocks harmful UV radiation: 19-21
"
" !!6l
the study of the timing of bird migrations, plant flowerings,
and other life cycle events in plants and animals: 12, 73
"!,!*6, **
A chemical reaction that uses sunlight to sustain life, most
commonly !46 l#!,!*6, ** that consumes
carbon dioxide and produces oxygen as a byproduct, thereby
contributing to the carbon cycle: 17-18, 42-43
"!#.,!
The number of people on the planet, expected to rise to 10 or 11 billion
by 2100 from 6 billion in 2000 and 1.6 billion in 1900: 5, 81, 118, 190
And “five Chinas”: 80-81
"!*,0 l l!!#
See
)
) , l ,!
A process of learning and discovery that involves developing
and refining hypotheses and testing those hypotheses against
real-world data: 63-74, 124
) l 0 l(*
One of the risks associated with climate change, rising sea
levels are related to both the thermal expansion of warming
oceans and the melting of land-based ice: 92-94, 116-17, 124
203
),:l
Author of The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith
(1723-1790) was a Scottish philosopher and economist
who coined the “invisible hand” metaphor: 4, 142
)!2l(,
A planet with temperatures cold enough to freeze seawater,
even at the equator; scientists debate about whether the Earth
ever got this cold: 22, 24
).*6
Payments to the producers of a product; contrast with taxes,
especially carbon taxes: 154
)..(l!4 lJ) oK
A gas that, after being released into the atmosphere, can form
sulfur particles that reflect solar radiation; also important in
acid rain: 146-47, 178
+
+4l*2#
The idea of increasing taxes on “bads”
such as pollution and using the tax revenue
to reduce taxes on “goods” such
as income: 163, 169
+ # (,.(
Averaging surface temperatures around the planet over
the course of a year yields the global average temperature,
currently around 15 oC (59 oF): 52, 124
.,!(6l!, l!(l ( *Z
The Fahrenheit scale (oF) used in the USA differs from the
Celsius scale (oC) commonly used in science, so extreme
caution is needed. Water freezes at 0 oC = 32 oF and boils at
100 oC = 212 oF; these are both examples of the general formula
going from oC to oF:
x oC = (1.8x+32) oF
for example, 20 oC = (36+32) = 68 oF.
A related (but simpler) formula must be used
for , # (,.( l *. for example, an
increase (or decrease) of 5 oC is equal to an
increase (or decrease) of 9 oF, which is an example
of the general formula for increases or decreases:
+x oC = +1.8x oF
for example, +4oC = +7.2 oF.
Note that a rough approximation is that a change of x oC
equals a change of 2x oF. Also note that you can reverse these
formulas to go from oF to oC:
x oF = (x-32)/(1.8)oC and +x oF=+x/(1.8)oC
204
+( 6l!l, l !!*
Situations such as traffic congestion, overfishing,
and pollution in which individual self-interest does
not lead to a good outcome for the group as a
whole; economists emphasize that these situations
feature common property, which can be misused by
self-interested individuals: 135-44, 148, 160, 187, 191
-
-,(0! ,lJ-/K
See ,(! , l(,!
- (,,6
A major challenge concerning climate change is uncertainty
about how high temperatures will go and what the resulting
impacts will be for people and the planet: 120-32
1
1, (l 6
Evaporation, precipitation, and other aspects of the movement
of water around the planet: 90, 96-97
1, (l0#!(
See ( !.* l*
205
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Praise for
The Cartoon Introduction to Climate Change
“Fresh! Cheeky! Accurate and inspiring! An accessible, friendly, and fun

explanation of climate change—free of politics, free of jargon, and fresh
with insights. Cartoons you can believe in!”
—Jane Lubchenco, Wayne and Gladys Valley Professor of Marine
Biology, Oregon State University, and former Administrator of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
“Grady Klein and Yoram Bauman are a national treasure. The economics
of climate policy has never been more accessible.”
—Kevin Hassett, Senior Fellow and Director of Economic Policy
Studies, American Enterprise Institute
“The Cartoon Introduction to Climate Change will tickle your fancy

while expanding your mind. Highly recommended.”
—Martin Weitzman, Professor of Economics, Harvard University
“Rarely do you read books that attempt to deal with the world’s biggest
problems and present the information in a way that the average public can
absorb it. Bravo to Yoram Bauman and Grady Klein, and thank you on behalf
of everyone who is deeply concerned about this issue.”
—Mark Reynolds, Executive Director, Citizens Climate Lobby
“Illustrated with deceptively simple black-and-white art that masterfully

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The

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