SPE-185611-MS

A Probabilistic Approach to Tight Gas Economic Evaluation: The Future of

Argentina

R. J. Cervantes-Bravo, H. Ñaupari-Barzol, and N. Palacios-Chun, Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria; E. T.

Jimenez-Nieves, CORE Energy; D. Magnelli, ITBA; V. A. Huerta-Quiñones, Savia Peru

Copyright 2017, Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper was prepared for presentation at the SPE Latin America and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 18-19 May 2017.

This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents
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Abstract
Tight gas reservoir has potential to provide a significant contribution to meet the global energy
demand. However, they involve technical and economic challenges for the commercialization that need
to be addressed with the multidisciplinary integration of Geoscience, Engineering and Economics.
Unconventional resource plays and tight gas reservoir, are generally characterized by lower geologic risk
but higher commercial risk. For that reason, a precise understanding of the potential range can lead to the
commercial success; this weighs on the economic evaluation process.
We will focus on local tight gas plays that differ in several aspects, especially in terms of the stage of
commercial growth. Due to the large number of uncertainties, deterministic economic modeling provided
results with low confidence and was considered as merely a scoping indication of commercial potential.
Deterministic and single-point solutions are unable to provide a real check for the input assumptions, which
typically leads to overly optimistic results. A better solution still needs to be found.
This paper transmits the consistent and systematic process employed in the evaluation of several tight
gas plays, all softwares (e.g. Crystal Ball) tested, the vital role of multidisciplinary participation, iterative
modeling efforts and conclusions. Thus, the generation of percentiles (P10, P50, and P90) for the economic
indicators: NPV, IRR and Payout, through a probabilistic model that takes three scenarios in each input
(Capex, Opex, Gas Price and Reserves); can yield to a more precise and sensible in return calculations of
investments on an outlook, with the associated risk from a commercial point of view.
This case study was developed on a sectorial block of the Lajas Formation of the Neuquen Basin, with
six wells in production (vertical wells 2000 – 2500 m), a GOIS of 129.22 BCF and a current recover factor
estimated in 19 %. An optimum number of infill wells will be proposed with the aim to improve the recover
factor higher than 35 % with and an incentive price of Gas Plus fixed at 7.5 US$/MMBTU from the National
Government. Thus, the learning curve would be reduced and become to an energy source that enable to
fulfill the future energy demand to a medium term for Argentina 2020 year, since the development of Vaca
Muerta Shale Gas will have a long-term contribution.
Positive results are expected, which will be increased with the addition of each infill well of 4.2 % (5.38
BCF) in the EUR with a yield of investment (NPV/Investment) of 39 %.
2 SPE-185611-MS

Introduction
Unconventional resources are those fossil fuels that are stored in low permeability rocks, whose production
is difficult by conventional methods. When the reservoir is formed by compacted sands, this is called "Tight
Gas", while this hydrocarbon is found in the source rock, the name turned to "Shale Gas".
Tight Gas production requires technology with very high levels of investment, mainly by the technique
called hydraulic fracturing. It involves the generation of multiple fractures in the reservoir, through the
water injection with special properties. These volumes of water are very significant; both to cause fracture,
as to bring the sand to the farthest reaches of the branched fractures. Likewise, it requires in most cases the
"horizontal" lines drilling several kilometers that enables access to relatively thin layers of lateral extensions.
On the other hand, when it mentions the tight gas reservoirs whose permeability is below 0.1 md, consider
that the decline in the early stages of production is very strong. therefore, studies recommend analyzing the
production beyond the 90 days of production, to deal in the best way the design of transport infrastructure
of the site.
Although the Tight Gas, requires more technical and economic effort; today, it has developed very rapidly,
due to the growing demand for natural gas in the world, such as Argentina. Then we describe the world
and Argentina regarding the opportunity for the development of Tight Gas, as an element of the Energy
Security context.

Global context
Increasing demand for natural gas in the world has led to a deepening of new techniques of exploration and
production of natural gas. These new exploitation techniques have resulted in the extraction of natural gas
from unconventional gas areas, among which are the tight sands or Tight Gas.
The Fig. N°1 shows that the world consumption of natural gas has a tendency of growth, where 2030
projections show a considerable increase and natural gas dominance over oil, approximately 148 million
barrels of oil equivalent per day against 105 million barrels of oil per day (G.C. Knight.).

Figure N° 1—Prospects World oil consumption.

Source: G.C. Knight. www.shell.com/static

Main actors of Tight Gas Production

Currently the main producers of Tight Gas, are the United States and Canada. In the particular case of the
United States the production volume is 30% of total natural gas production, with a perspective that amounts
to 50% for 2030. There are also other smaller-scale producers with mature gas areas as: Australia, Egypt,
SPE-185611-MS 3

among other countries. Likewise; there are countries with important perspectives in the development of gas
such as: India, Germany, Russia and Argentina.
World record as the revolution of Shale Gas produced in the USA in the last 5 years, allow increased
production of oil and gas by 20% and 30% respectively, which open positive expectations to replicate the
scheme in Tight Gas by:
▪ A sector highly developed oil service contractors (development of high technologies and their
availability).
▪ Competitive hydrocarbon sector and continuous technological innovation.
▪ Efficient and broad market to facilitate intensive capital financing.
▪ An adequate regulatory and tax benefits for the activity scheme.
Context in Argentina. Currently, Argentina is heavily dependent on fossil fuels for their energy supply.
Oil and gas account for 86% in the total energy consumed, natural gas being the most important component
of primary energy matrix, since 2015, it contributes 51%, followed by oil with 33% and a minimum
contribution of coal and renewable energies.

Figure N° 2—Primary energy matrix, Argentina.

Source: Secretary of Energy Planning - Argentina.

If we analyze the proven natural gas production versus reserves in the period 1998 – 2014. we see a
decline from 2004 due to the energy crisis in Argentina, since the national natural gas production did not go
with the growing requirements of demand. However; the replacement rate in early 2013 was increased by
the nationalization of the State Company, giving the country a range of opportunities to the development of
unconventional resources (Tight Gas and Shale Gas), giving it a stake of 15% of national production and
70% in Tight Gas on unconventional resources.

Figure N° 3—Argentina reserves and production.

Source: Based on information from the Secretary of Energy - Argentina
4 SPE-185611-MS

A large part of these unconventional resources, including tight gas, will be part of the electricity
generation to ensure, in addition to security, energy equity in the country, the product of its connectivity
with poverty reduction; likewise, mitigate CO2 emissions through exchange with higher pollution fossil
fuels (coal and oil).
However; Argentina is experiencing a paradox in the energy sector in general and with respect to natural
gas in the following 2 points
a. On one hand, faces a crisis of gas supply manifested in a steady decline in domestic production
since 2004 with the growing need for imports to meet domestic demand (Natural gas imported from
Bolivia and LNG from abroad). The import of energy is one of the main factors of deterioration in
the trade balance, as well as other macroeconomic variables that became in drastic measures such as
the restriction of other imports, rotation of dividends abroad or inability to purchase foreign exchange
in foreign currency.
b. On the other hand, faces a promising future for the great resources of unconventional hydrocarbons
(Shale Gas and Tight Gas) having, which places on the podium at world level in terms of this kind of
hydrocarbons with characteristics in the technical aspect and economic.
Accordingly, given the need to reverse the current situation of the natural gas market in Argentina, it is
expected that the National State provide, if necessary, a position to recoup, through the so-called subsidies
and policies that promote investments, to make possible the local production of unconventional resources.
Thus, the following Table No. 1 shows us an analysis of the future of Tight Gas.

Table N° 1—Strategic analysis to the future of Tight Gas.

Finally, note that the increase in performance in the learning curve while projects will run and get a
"know- how" of all stakeholders involved in the activity. Therefore, the following application under different
scenarios, through probabilistic approach to economic evaluation, allow us to reduce the risk of projects
to be executed.

Tight Gas in Argentina

In 2006, Argentina, began to conduct feasibility studies for natural gas in tight sands, mainly in the Neuquen
Basin. One of the first companies to carry out these studies was the State Company.
The company Medanito S.A., has made the first experience, referring to Tight gas in the reservoir Aguada
Chivato, where it drilled a well on compact sands at depths reaching 3,000 meters. Furthermore, the State
SPE-185611-MS 5

Company, has begun studies on the Loma de la Lata field where expected to find excellent opportunities
for the development of these resources as shown in the Fig. N° 4.

Figure N° 4—Map of Loma La Lata. Exploration wells in unconventional reservoirs.

Source: Julio Dogliani, Roberto Domínguez, and Daniel García. Evaluación de formaciones
en pozos exploratorios de reservorios no convencionales mediante perfiles de última generación.

In March 2008, the Ministry of Energy of the Nation created the "Gas Plus" program, where it is
established that from the presentation of projects that promote the expansion of natural gas reserves,
will benefited with higher prices than those currently prevailing in the gas market. In October 2008, the
Department of Energy's Office granted the benefits of the Gas Plus Program, the project "Lajas Formation
- Tight Gas", that belongs to the Cupen Mahiuda oil field from the Exploitation Concession Loma La Lata
- Sierra Barrosa.
From the Fig. N° 5, can be observed the different wells made in the Neuquen Basin in search
of unconventional reservoirs. One of the boreholes (Nq CuM. X-1) of this series was conducted in
the oil field Cupen Mahuida of the concession Loma La Lata, which yielded positive results about
unconventional reservoirs. However, there is uncertainty in the development of these tight gas reservoirs
because deterministic methods are currently used for the economic evaluation of investment portfolios
6 SPE-185611-MS

Figure N° 5—Satellite image of the Concession Loma La Lata. horizontal wells planned for areas of low permeability
Source: Production forecasts of Natural Gas Reservoir and tight sands. Octubre 2008.

Tight Gas Reservoir Description – Lajas Formation

Tight Gas Reservoirs in Argentina approaches the concept of "Basin – Centered Gas Sytem" (BCGS), which
refers to accumulation of gas at or near the axis of the basin center, although it has also been found in the
shallow margins.
The ejection energy resulting from the load of the overlying reservoir, causes the displacement of moving
water out of the pore space to higher levels and the gaseous phase does not migrate by floatability – Diffusion
as in conventional systems, due to the low permeability, remaining in the system highly irreducible water
saturation and free gas (Raggio et al, 2014).
The main characteristics of these reservoirs are:
Areal distribution: Thousands of km2.
Resource: Large volumes in place. Low recovery factor.
Relationship Gas-Water: Water Production insignificant. Absence of contact downslope water.
Reservoir pressure: overpressure or under pressure.
Source Rock: In physical proximity to the reservoir rock / short Migration.
Seal: Capillary pressure.
Permeability: <0.1 md.
The Lajas Formation, located in the study area has a dry gas whose composition corresponds to
approximately 94% methane and low percentage of impurities. It is located in the depth ranges from 6,560
ft. to 9,840 ft. with an initial gradient of 0.56 psi / ft. obtained by conventional methods (RFT, MDT), by
incorporation of records DFIT (Diagnostic fracture injection testing), indicating that the reservoir is slightly
over-pressured.
SPE-185611-MS 7

The energy production that predominates in the formation is the primary drive mechanisms gas
expansion. The completion phase is performed perforating with explosive charges, using 3 or 4 clusters each
fracture stages. For our study, it was considered the complete set of production of the same Lajas Formation.

Study Cases
The study case will focus on the evaluation of the Neuquen Basin - Sierra Barrosa Block, where there is tight
gas, in the scenario of the gas field that have been concessioned to a producing company, which seeks to
assess the profitability of a portfolio of gas projects under a new probabilistic scheme that describes the risk
spectrum and, therefore, reducing uncertainty in financial outlets of these resources. It is worth mentioning
that synergy to the exploitation of Tight Gas will be the key element to meet the demand for natural gas in
Argentina in the midterm. Here, we describe 2 approaches (Deterministic vs Probabilistic) and then analyze
the results and commercial uncertainties.

Deterministic Approach
To determine the key variables in the search to reduce the learning curve, economic variables between USA
and Argentina compared from a deterministic approach. It is worth mentioning, we will take a "Type well"
and we will name it as "Well 1PX" to assess the feasibility of these projects on the block.

Table N° 2—Comparative table of economic variables between Argentina and USA.

In the case of Argentina, the project's revenues come exclusively from the commercialization of natural
gas, therefore by the physicochemical characteristics of the type well in question, condensates associated
with natural gas production are negligible.
The following describes the four basic variables in evaluations of assets:
a) Production. The resulting production is sold at the wellhead, i.e. the customer must set the transportation
and distribution contracts to place the natural gas to final consumers, where it is considered that there is no
risk of market demand for gas production. It is noteworthy that there is, at many points within the network
of gas pipelines in Argentina, an idle transport capacity due to the structure of the existing market.
The production of such wells is characterized by rapidly decreasing its initial production and then
stabilized at a lower level considerately, in the order of 20 % of the initial volume. Almost 70 % of the total
production of this kind of wells is achieved in the first years of production start. Therefore, the "Duong
Model" is the decline curve from a deterministic approach, which best represents the reservoir under study.
8 SPE-185611-MS

Figure N° 6—Decline Curve- Duong Model

b) Price. The program "Gas plus" is a program created by the Secretary of Energy of Argentina since
2008, which aims to encourage local production of natural gas. The program is aimed at projects that by
their nature require different economic conditions those of the market, whose maximum price is set for
marketing the following activities:
▪ Exploratory Projects
▪ Unconventional gas projects
▪ Recovery Projects of abandoned oil field
▪ Other projects with outstanding features.
Thus, for this study in the Neuquen Basin, National State considers a price of 7.5 US$/MMBTU in 2016,
for the sale of gas produced from a deterministic point of view, given by its unconventional resources.
c) CAPEX. The investment required to start drilling and production is approximately 7.5 MM US$ and is
divided into 3 groups: drilling, completion and Facilities.

Table N° 3—CAPEX for starting production of each well.

SPE-185611-MS 9

Investment is practically twice as requiring a conventional well with similar characteristics. The
investment is done at the beginning of the project, estimating the start of production of the well at 6 months
of work began. The evaluation considers only the necessary investments for the start of production of the
well and its uptake, using existing surface facilities for processing and sale.
d) OPEX. The project includes operating costs by: the extraction of natural gas of 0.45 US$/MMBTU, the
fixed cost of 17,369 US$/Year and, the cost of 10 10 US$/Bbl for the treatment and remediation of water
used in the hydraulic fracturing. These costs have been estimated as a product of historical information
provided similar projects.
Economic Evaluation
The Table N° 4, Fig. N° 7 and Fig. N° 8 shows explain the results of the economic evaluation conducted
to the project of the type well.

Table N° 4—Economic assessment - location 3EX.

10 SPE-185611-MS

Figure N° 7—Cumulative NPV – Project 1PX.

Figure N° 8—NPV vs Discount rate – Project 1PX.

Results
Total investment: 7.62 MM US$
NPV (12.5%): 2.97 MM US$
IRR: 25.5 %
Pay Out: 3 years and 6 months.
Return on investment: 38.95 %

Probabilistic Approach
Traditionally, we have taken decisions approving projects deterministically, through the known criteria:
NPV, IRR, PayOut and Investment Performance.
Usually when evaluating an investment project through the traditional approach, it is correct to accept
the project which generates the greatest NPV, but this decision does not report project risk, in other words,
SPE-185611-MS 11

how risky it is for managers according to the risk profile, accept approve the project. In this regard, we show
the application of Monte Carlo Simulation through Crystal Ball tool.
As result of Monte Carlo simulation for the net cash flow discounted, we follow these steps:
We started with the Economic Evaluation Model from a deterministic approach, subject to 4 variables:
Gas price (Gas Plus), Capex, Opex and Reserves (Duong Decline Curve).
We defined uncontrolled variables or assumptions and their Probability Distributions for:
a) Production. The production is based on 3 decline curve of a "type well", that includes from the
Hyperbolic decline as a case "Low", and the declination Duo Long as "High" case. Likewise, the case
"Base" will be proposed as the average condition of these two curves decline in production. See Fig. N°9
and Fig. N° 10.

Figure N° 9—Decline Curves.

Figure N° 10—Decline Curves: Low, Base and High.

12 SPE-185611-MS

b) Price. Regarding gas price, it is considered a probability distribution BetaPERT, with a minimum price
of 5.2 US$/MMBTU (current market price without subsidies for marketing in the Neuquen Basin) and a
maximum price of 7.5 US$/MMBTU (price subsidies for producers fixed until 2017). This price fluctuates
between these values and depend on the energy policy set by the national government for the next 30 years.

Figure N° 11—Probability density function (PDF) of the price of gas for the next 30 years.

c) CAPEX. Investments are considered a distribution log-normal, with a central value of 7.62 MM US$,
with a margin of 10 % for cases high y Low.

Figure N° 12—Probability density function (PDF) and sensitivity analysis of CAPEX.

d) OPEX. The variable costs of Gas, it is assigned a Log-normal distribution with a central value of 0.45
US$/MMBTU (Value set for the historical information of the basin) and standard deviation of 10%.
SPE-185611-MS 13

Figure N° 13—Probability density function (PDF) Log-normal of OPEX.

Economic Evaluation
Once you have entered the input variables as probability distribution functions (PDF's), in Monte Carlo
simulation, following the expert criteria. The Table N° 5, Fig. N° 14 and Table N° 6 shows the results of
the economic evaluation conducted to the project from a probabilistic approach.

Table N° 5—Economic Evaluation from a probabilistic approach - Location 1PX.

14 SPE-185611-MS

Figure N° 14—Reverse frequency accumulated of NPV - Project 1PX.

Table N° 6—Percentiles and Statistics of NPV – Project 1PX

From Montecarlo method, it was found that the variables gas price and investments (drilling y
completions) are the critical variables that determine the profitability model. We identify these critical
variables Risk through the tornado diagram (Fig. N° 15).
SPE-185611-MS 15

Figure N° 15—Sensitivity analysis of the NPV- Project 1PX.

Similarly, we have made the simulation to obtain the percentiles for IRR and sensitivity analysis through
the tornado diagram, as shown below:

Figure N° 16—Reverse frequency accumulated of IRR - Project 1PX.

16 SPE-185611-MS

Table N° 7—Percentiles and Statistics of IRR – Project 1PX.

Figure N° 17—Sensitivity analysis of the IRR- Project 1PX.

Results
Total investment:
Percentil@10%: 6.98 MM US$
Percentil@50%: 7.61 MM US$
Percentil@90%: 8.28 MM US$
NPV (12.5 %):
Percentil@10%: – 913 M US$
Percentil@50%: 33 M US$
Percentil@90%: 1,072 M US$
IRR:
Percentil@10%: 9 %
Percentil@50%: 13 %
Percentil@90%: 18 %
SPE-185611-MS 17

Return on investment:
Percentil@10%: −11%
Percentil@50%: 1%
Percentil@90%: 15%
Finally, the results in the 50 % percentile can affirm that the project 1PX is economically viable from
a probabilistic approach. This allows us to apply a portfolio of 4 projects (5.38 BCF each) investment of
similar characteristics until to reach a recovery factor of 35.66 %.

Conclusions and Recommendations:

a. The use of unconventional hydrocarbons is the main resource that has Argentina to reverse the current
energy crisis, characterized by a steady decline of local production in the last decade, and an increase
in international fuel imports to meet domestic demand.
b. The production of such wells is characterized by its low initial volume and its rapid decline. Thus,
the project has its highest income in the first 3 years of production, reaching almost 70% of the total
production in that period. This characteristic makes continuous boreholes are required to maintain a
constant volume of production over time.
c. The price of natural gas in the current regulatory context of Argentina, is not freely determined by the
producer, to conditions of market competition, but rather it is framed in the program "Gas plus" under
subsidies. It is therefore necessary to reduce the learning curve in the development of Tight Gas, to
leave this type of incentive and compete hand in hand with gas resources by conventional techniques.
d. The investment these reservoirs requires special techniques (mainly hydraulic fracturing and
horizontal drilling) and expensive, giving as a result investments superior than twice what is required
in conventional operations. The development of production scales, and a highly developed industry
contractors and a capital market that facilitates to finance are the keys to reducing the amount of
investment required and thus promote the development of these fields.
e. Under the above conditions, it is expected that the project is economically favorable enough in terms
NPV/IRR. However, given the dependence of the energy matrix of Argentina's natural gas, and being
all the costlier alternative sources (imports, restrictions and liquid fuels) could be expected in the short
and medium term government measures to facilitate the implementation of such projects.
f. Finally, we compared the results of NPV (M US$), IRR (%), Pay Out (Months) and Return on
investment (NPV/Investment) of project 1PX (Table N° 8), where we can suggest the probabilistic
approach for allowing a control environment of risk.

Table N° 8—Comparative table of results.

Acknowledgments
First at all, to God for give me a beautiful family, which are the reason of my life.
To my love, Danae, as the woman of my life, who is with me always.
To my mother, Sonia who is in heaven with all my love.
18 SPE-185611-MS

The authors would like to thank Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria, CORE ENERGY and Savia Peru
for their authorization to publish this paper.

Nomenclature
PRMS = Petroleum Resources Management System
SEC = U.S Securities and Exchange Commission
EUR = Estimate ultimate recovery
1P = Proved Reserves
2P = Proved + Probable Reserves
3P = Proved + Probable + Possible Reserves
(R/P) Ratio = Reserves to Production Ratio
(PR/P) Ratio = Ratio of Proved Reserves Replacement
EOR = Enhanced Oil Recovery
M = Thousands
MM = Millions
Bbl = Blue barrel
CAPEX = Capital expenditures
OPEX = Operative expenditures
NPV = Net present value
IRR = Internal rate of return
WTI = Western Texas Intermediate

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